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View Full Version : Heres a shocking development



Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 01:18 PM
Bray is reportedly having shoulder discomfort :rolleyes:. We have been down this road before I think.

mroby85
02-18-2008, 01:37 PM
that trade has to be one of the most insignificant trades ever, that was made out to be big. neither team has really gotten any production out of it.

Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 01:37 PM
that trade has to be one of the most insignificant trades ever, that was made out to be big. neither team has really gotten any production out of it.

I agree for the most part

ChatterRed
02-18-2008, 01:45 PM
Maybe he can get Dusty to massage it.

mlbfan30
02-18-2008, 02:36 PM
Kearns has been good. His offense is just slightly above avg, but he's one of the best defensive RFers in the game. He's easily the best player in the deal and worth more than everyone else combined. Just because he didn't live up to the hype doesn't mean he's not good.

mroby85
02-18-2008, 03:07 PM
i was never a kearns fan when he played here, i felt his defensive hype was overrated, and he never really recovered from that shoulder injury. although it wouldn't be hard to be the best player out of that trade.

Orenda
02-18-2008, 03:44 PM
[QUOTE=mroby85;1554185]that trade has to be one of the most insignificant trades ever, that was made out to be big. neither team has really gotten any production out of it.[/QUOT

Well the trade certainly hasn't improved the bullpen, and it didn't save the team any money if you consider the contracts to Cordero, Stanton, Saarloos, and Cormier.

757690
02-18-2008, 03:57 PM
[QUOTE=mroby85;1554185]that trade has to be one of the most insignificant trades ever, that was made out to be big. neither team has really gotten any production out of it.[/QUOT

Well the trade certainly hasn't improved the bullpen, and it didn't save the team any money if you consider the contracts to Cordero, Stanton, Saarloos, and Cormier.

First, I am sorry, but I fail to understand how trading away Kearns and Lopez led to those signings. All those guys would have been signed whether they were traded or not, especially Cordero. If you are going to use the twisted argument that the fact that Majewski and Bray have not been healthy or effective since the trade, and thus, that lead to these signings, then you need to take a course in logic 101.

Second, I am very confident that Bray will be the best player out of that trade by a long shot. He will be a dominant lefty reliever, and maybe even a starter eventually. He turns 25 in June!

Blue
02-18-2008, 04:15 PM
Kearns has been good. His offense is just slightly above avg, but he's one of the best defensive RFers in the game. He's easily the best player in the deal and worth more than everyone else combined. Just because he didn't live up to the hype doesn't mean he's not good.

I think he's a good bet to put up an .850-.870 OPS this year.

757690
02-18-2008, 04:50 PM
I think he's a good bet to put up an .850-.870 OPS this year.

Maybe, but I doubt it. He was traded for his attitude, which has not seemed to have gotten better in Washington. He will be an average MLB outfielder his whole career, because he has no desire to be anything else but.

redsfanmia
02-18-2008, 04:59 PM
Maybe, but I doubt it. He was traded for his attitude, which has not seemed to have gotten better in Washington. He will be an average MLB outfielder his whole career, because he has no desire to be anything else but.

I am not a fan of Kearns and always questioned his work ethic but the guy looks like he dropped 30 lbs heading into camp this year. Maybe he finally got it.

HokieRed
02-18-2008, 06:08 PM
I've said this before, but it's ridiculous to compare Bill Bray, who to this point has accomplished next to nothing as a major leaguer, to an above average corner outfielder who is going to hit about 300 home runs lifetime, drive in 1000+ runs, and put up about an .800 OPS. One can defend the trade from the Reds standpoint in terms of salary reduction and production of opportunity for other players, but Krivsky did not get anywhere near what he should have gotten for a player of Kearns' stature. Once Viola, Roenicke, Pelland, and some of the more recent acquisitions mature, it will be very interesting to see if a healthy Bill Bray can make our bullpen. He's really done nothing so far to suggest that he will.

TheBigLebowski
02-18-2008, 06:31 PM
This is going to be great - another The Trade thread. It's been too long.

DTCromer
02-18-2008, 06:33 PM
Comparing who won "The Trade" is like comparing if you'd rather make out with Rose O'Donnell or Carrot Top.

mroby85
02-18-2008, 06:58 PM
Comparing who won "The Trade" is like comparing if you'd rather make out with Rose O'Donnell or Carrot Top.

that is an excellent analogy, thus the trade was insignificant, lol.

Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 07:29 PM
Lock This Thread!

HokieRed
02-18-2008, 07:30 PM
Couldn't agree more. Let's move forward.

Newman4
02-18-2008, 07:48 PM
Comparing who won "The Trade" is like comparing if you'd rather make out with Rose O'Donnell or Carrot Top.

Rosie gets my vote. :eek:

Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 07:56 PM
Carrot Top is pretty brolly these days

bubbachunk
02-18-2008, 08:13 PM
where are you getting this info from?

757690
02-18-2008, 08:28 PM
I've said this before, but it's ridiculous to compare Bill Bray, who to this point has accomplished next to nothing as a major leaguer, to an above average corner outfielder who is going to hit about 300 home runs lifetime, drive in 1000+ runs, and put up about an .800 OPS. One can defend the trade from the Reds standpoint in terms of salary reduction and production of opportunity for other players, but Krivsky did not get anywhere near what he should have gotten for a player of Kearns' stature. Once Viola, Roenicke, Pelland, and some of the more recent acquisitions mature, it will be very interesting to see if a healthy Bill Bray can make our bullpen. He's really done nothing so far to suggest that he will.

You are right. It is ridiculous to compare Bray with Kearns.

Bray has a future as a dominant set up man or even closer, or a solid #3 starter for the Reds for years.

Kearns has a future as a manager of a Home Depot. He is a poor man's Kevin Mench and will be out of baseball before he is 32.

Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 09:20 PM
where are you getting this info from?

Fay on one of his blog entries

bearcatfan24
02-18-2008, 09:30 PM
Second, I am very confident that Bray will be the best player out of that trade by a long shot. He will be a dominant lefty reliever, and maybe even a starter eventually. He turns 25 in June!
-per -"757690"
Are you crazy he hasnt been healthy while he has been here.

Revering4Blue
02-18-2008, 10:45 PM
IMHO, in the end, "The Trade" will not be viewed as harshly as the Williamson trade.

Or the Aaron Boone, Gabe White, Heredia Yankee deals..

Or DanO not dealing Paul Wilson or Sean Casey at their respective peaks......

Handofdeath
02-18-2008, 11:31 PM
...an above average corner outfielder who is going to hit about 300 home runs lifetime, drive in 1000+ runs, and put up about an .800 OPS.

Beer league softball stats do not count.

bubbachunk
02-18-2008, 11:31 PM
Fay on one of his blog entries

a link please?

Bip Roberts
02-18-2008, 11:35 PM
a link please?

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/02/my-theory-on-blanton.asp#comments


--Left-hander Bill Bray is being held back because of a sore shoulder. He doesn't think it's serious. He over-correct in his rehab. "Now, I have to correct that," he said. "We're working out what I have to do." He is throwing but not off the mound.

757690
02-19-2008, 01:25 AM
Second, I am very confident that Bray will be the best player out of that trade by a long shot. He will be a dominant lefty reliever, and maybe even a starter eventually. He turns 25 in June!
-per -"757690"
Are you crazy he hasnt been healthy while he has been here.

Exactamundo!

Let's judge him after a season in which he is healthy.

He is a #1 pick, a lefty who throws low to mid 90's and has a solid second pitch.

No one knows how good Bray can be since he was injured all of last year. Are you saying I am crazy to think that Bailey will have a good career since he was injured last year?

I would be crazy to say that Felipe Lopez would be the best player, since he has been healthy since the trade and we have all been able to see exactly how good he is.

mlbfan30
02-19-2008, 01:53 AM
There is only so much value a RP will have for a team. That's why this trade was bad to begin with. An AVG RF is better than an AVG RP. Bray is just a 2 pitch pitcher without overpowering stuff. 94 MPH fastball, 86 MPH slider. It's nothing that would lead you to suspect that he'll be anything more than an average RP (when he's playing). Kearns has proven to be at the very least average offensively, and is a top 3 defensive RF in the game. For some proof look at these...

http://www.fieldingbible.com/

Also every advanced fielding metric says he's at least +1 Win defensively, and most of these metrics do not include arm.

It will take a lot of extremely horrible years for Kearns and dominate years for Bray for him to catch up in value because it's so hard for a RP to be extraordinarily valuable to begin with.

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 01:58 AM
The way I see it we dumped salary for cheaper players and I'm pretty ok with it. Should we have got better in return? Probably but I dont think it matters that much any more.

757690
02-19-2008, 02:16 AM
There is only so much value a RP will have for a team. That's why this trade was bad to begin with. An AVG RF is better than an AVG RP. Bray is just a 2 pitch pitcher without overpowering stuff. 94 MPH fastball, 86 MPH slider. It's nothing that would lead you to suspect that he'll be anything more than an average RP (when he's playing). Kearns has proven to be at the very least average offensively, and is a top 3 defensive RF in the game. For some proof look at these...

http://www.fieldingbible.com/

Also every advanced fielding metric says he's at least +1 Win defensively, and most of these metrics do not include arm.

It will take a lot of extremely horrible years for Kearns and dominate years for Bray for him to catch up in value because it's so hard for a RP to be extraordinarily valuable to begin with.

An average RF is more valuable than an average relief pitcher? Did you even watch the Reds season last year?

That metric is about to get real old, real fast. Relief pitchers are becoming more and more valuable as the game changes. Why do you think that the Red Sox gave up four players for a reliever last year? Brian Giles was traded straight up for a left reliever, Ricardo Rincon. At the trading deadline, the players in the highest demand always seem to be relievers. There is a reason.

Let's put it this way, the Reds still need more relief pitchers, but have filled Kearns spot with ease. First with Pena, then Hamilton, and now Bruce. An outfielder may give a team more wins, but a good relief pitcher is much, much harder to find.

BTW, How many "average" left handed relievers can you name who throw 94 mph and have a a mlb slider? Bray has all the ability to be a closer, and a dominant one at that.

DannyB
02-19-2008, 08:06 AM
An average RF is more valuable than an average relief pitcher? Did you even watch the Reds season last year?

That metric is about to get real old, real fast. Relief pitchers are becoming more and more valuable as the game changes. Why do you think that the Red Sox gave up four players for a reliever last year? Brian Giles was traded straight up for a left reliever, Ricardo Rincon. At the trading deadline, the players in the highest demand always seem to be relievers. There is a reason.

Let's put it this way, the Reds still need more relief pitchers, but have filled Kearns spot with ease. First with Pena, then Hamilton, and now Bruce. An outfielder may give a team more wins, but a good relief pitcher is much, much harder to find.

BTW, How many "average" left handed relievers can you name who throw 94 mph and have a a mlb slider? Bray has all the ability to be a closer, and a dominant one at that.

I can't say how many "average" MLB lefty relievers have that.At this point Bray doesn't.

BLEEDS
02-19-2008, 02:15 PM
The way I see it we dumped salary for cheaper players and I'm pretty ok with it. Should we have got better in return? Probably but I dont think it matters that much any more.

TOTALLY agree, you'd rather we have paid Arb numbers for Lopez, the one hit wonder, to play some shoddy D and hit not much better than Castro? And the pudgy version of Kearns? We had PLENTY of OF-ers at the time, including WilyMo, this was a dump of soon-to-be overpaid slugs for young pitchers who filled an immediate need and a long-term need. That they got injured and didn't pay immediate benefits doesn't make the trade bad. Bray still has a chance to be VERY solid IMO, and he's CHEAP. Maj may wash out, but he's still better than having Lopez over the same period.

It's a moot point, the trade is a non-factor as stated at this point.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
02-19-2008, 02:21 PM
I can't say how many "average" MLB lefty relievers have that.At this point Bray doesn't.

I was just quoting mlbfan30. That is how he described Bray, and then he said that he was just average.

Bray does throw 94, and he does have a good slider, so he right about that.

Orenda
02-19-2008, 03:30 PM
Are we just making things up now? Pena was gone way before the trade, so how he could have replaced Kearns is beyond me. Also Bill Bray a potential #3 starter? The guy has never started a game in proffesional baseball yet some here think he's the middle of the rotation starter this team has been searching for?

757690
02-19-2008, 04:40 PM
Are we just making things up now? Pena was gone way before the trade, so how he could have replaced Kearns is beyond me. Also Bill Bray a potential #3 starter? The guy has never started a game in proffesional baseball yet some here think he's the middle of the rotation starter this team has been searching for?

My bad about Pena, but my point is that average RF are easy to find, much easier than average relief pitchers. And we really aren't missing Kearns these days.

Concerning Bray's starting potential, here is the link to the MLB report on his selection in the draft in 2004.

http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20040607&content_id=763747&vkey=draft2004&fext=.jsp&c_id=null

"Depending on how well he develops in the minor leagues, Brown said he wouldn't be surprised if Bray became a starter one day.

"That would be up to our development people on how far he can go. As of now, he is a closer," Brown said. "He has a power arm with power pitches," Brown said."

Every scouting report of him says the same thing. When he was acquired, Krivsky said that he expected Bray to become a starter if he didn't develop into a closer.

Let me repeat, he throws 94 mph at least, and has a power slider. He is by far the most talented player in that trade and has the potential to be a dominant pitcher as either a closer, set-up man, or starter.

gedred69
02-19-2008, 09:29 PM
Too many posts to read them all carefully, but please understand Lopez has issues that will most likely keep him from ever becoming the star or even solid player he should be. (Can't say anymore. He should be a lot better than he has shown).