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Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 10:45 AM
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/


Dunn: Nothing going on on extension

Adam Dunn is in camp. Could it be his last as a Red?

Dunn says nothing is going on as far as talks about a contract extension. The Reds picked up his option on Oct. 31. But, as it is, he'll become a free agent after the season. Any hope something gets done?

"I don't know anymore," he said. "We'll see what happens. I'm really not worried about it."

Dunn said he feels great. He had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 26. He had been playing with bulky knee for over a year.

"It's good," he said. "I haven't done a lot of agility stuff. But it's better than it's been in a long time. It should make it easier to play."

Dunn, by the way, is a NASCAR convert after going to the Daytona 500.

"It was awesome," he said. "I wasn't a fan of NASCAR. Being their live and seeing how fast those guys go . . . it's amazing. I don't know how to describe it. TV will never be able to capture the speed, the noise.

"I love it."


All the young arms II

I talked to experts about the young arms today. Both Dick Pole and Dusty Baker were impressed by Monday's first session by the guys they hadn't seen.

"I try not to get too excited about one bullpen session," Pole said. "But we've got some good arms. I was really impressed with the arm strength of (Johnny) Cueto, (Edinson) Volquez and (Josh) Roenicke. You can't teach a good fastball."

Said Baker: "They're looking good. Some guys ahead of other guys, especially the ones who play played Winter Ball. They have a big advantage because they're ready. They looked real good. But we've got good arms in this camp. Good young arms. Good veterans arms.

"Hopefully, we'll have a big pot to chose from."

Baker mentioned Scott Sauerbeck, the left-hander from Northwest High and Miami University, as one of the impressive veteran arms. That's the second time Baker's singled out Sauerbeck. Sauerbeck pitched last year in the minors for Houston and Toronto. He's 20-17 with 3.82 ERA in 487 big league games.

Enjoy :)

XU Lou
02-19-2008, 11:53 AM
Thanks. I suspect the Dunn talks will start relatively soon now that BP is signed long term. Doesn't mean a deal will get done, but the talking should start soon.

bubbachunk
02-19-2008, 12:24 PM
Thanks. I suspect the Dunn talks will start relatively soon now that BP is signed long term. Doesn't mean a deal will get done, but the talking should start soon.

I would still rather see them try to trade Dunn that way Bruce can play a corner spot which is more natural position, and we could find a speedy center fielder who can hit lead off.

Just my wishful thinking though

BLEEDS
02-19-2008, 01:06 PM
I would still rather see them try to trade Dunn that way Bruce can play a corner spot which is more natural position, and we could find a speedy center fielder who can hit lead off.

Just my wishful thinking though


Bruce has a corner spot being kept warm for him - RF.

We need more OFFENSE besides Bruce in the OF.

And, contrary to unpopular belief, we CAN spend the $$ on Dunn, and still be at or less than we were last year - and keep money for Free Agent pitchers and "speedy center fielders who can hit lead off".

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 01:10 PM
For as long as I can remember the reds have always had enough offense. Not a comment about Dunn but I tend to not worry about our offensive production that much.

HalMorrisRules
02-19-2008, 01:12 PM
Eric Karabell had this to say about Roenicke in his Reds Fantasy Preview last week:

"Josh Roenicke, son of former major leaguer Gary and nephew of Ron, gets his fastball into the mid-90s, but hasn't reached Triple-A yet. In a year, he could be in Cincy's bullpen."

I'm eager to see how he fares this spring.

I(heart)Freel
02-19-2008, 01:24 PM
And, contrary to unpopular belief, we CAN spend the $$ on Dunn, and still be at or less than we were last year - and keep money for Free Agent pitchers and "speedy center fielders who can hit lead off".

PEACE

-BLEEDS



Color me dubious. As someone who posted the Reds payroll plans on here a few months ago covering 2008-2011, I don't know that that statement is quite accurate.

I'll go back into my graphs, now knowing what we know about contracts, especially the Cordero signing and BPhil extension.

Not sure, but I think we'll be surprised. I'll wait to say with certainty that the Reds can afford Dunn AND other needed parts once I see the actual numbers laid out.

AmarilloRed
02-19-2008, 01:25 PM
I would still rather see them try to trade Dunn that way Bruce can play a corner spot which is more natural position, and we could find a speedy center fielder who can hit lead off.

Just my wishful thinking though

We really have no one close in the minor league system who could immediately replace Dunn's production, so a LTC is important for the Reds to pursue. I am surprised there has been no talk about a LTC, but there is plenty of time to get one done

bubbachunk
02-19-2008, 01:32 PM
We really have no one close in the minor league system who could immediately replace Dunn's production, so a LTC is important for the Reds to pursue. I am surprised there has been no talk about a LTC, but there is plenty of time to get one done

Yea I was thinking of trading for prospects and letting norris hopper/freel/dickerson(if that is his name i forget) take over there, but I have been so frustrated with Dunn and his supposed "coming of age" the past two season we were supposed to see that him leaving would not hurt me.

Natty Redlocks
02-19-2008, 02:13 PM
I would still rather see them try to trade Dunn that way Bruce can play a corner spot which is more natural position, and we could find a speedy center fielder who can hit lead off.

Just my wishful thinking though

Don't worry; it's just a matter of time before The Magnificent Juan Pierre is a Red. Bank on it.

danken12
02-19-2008, 02:24 PM
Yea I was thinking of trading for prospects and letting norris hopper/freel/dickerson(if that is his name i forget) take over there, but I have been so frustrated with Dunn and his supposed "coming of age" the past two season we were supposed to see that him leaving would not hurt me.

I have no idea what you're expecting from Dunn, but being the best hitter/run producer on the team pretty much does it for me.

smoke6
02-19-2008, 02:29 PM
I have no idea what you're expecting from Dunn, but being the best hitter/run producer on the team pretty much does it for me.
Best hitter...NO
Farthest hitter...YES.


Unfortunatly, the second one has no bearing on the game of baseball.

bubbachunk
02-19-2008, 02:42 PM
I have no idea what you're expecting from Dunn, but being the best hitter/run producer on the team pretty much does it for me.

Not even close to being the best hitter due to his many strike outs.
Yes he does produce a lot runs with his HRs and Walks, but he does not make enough contact for my liking. Also there is the argument that take his bat away and you lose more runs then you make up, but I say take away his defense and put someone else better and you make many runs because his "prowess" in left field has cost the team runs.


Don't worry; it's just a matter of time before The Magnificent Juan Pierre is a Red. Bank on it.

:eek: if that happened I will have a drink for you. :beerme:

kbrake
02-19-2008, 04:00 PM
We have had 1000 Dunn threads but maybe it is time for another. He is the best offensive player on this team. No one has put up numbers even close to Adam Dunn in the time that Dunn has been in Cincinnati.

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2008, 05:36 PM
Will someone please tell me what Reds player is a better hitter than Dunn? What Reds in history have been as productive in 4 consecutive seasons as Dunn? Name a Red besides Dunn to drive in 100 runs since 2001... Name a Red besides Dunn to walk 100 times since 2001... name a Red besides Dunn to hit 35+ HRs besides Dunn since 2001... name a Red to score 100+ runs since 2001.

I'm sure once again people will find a reason to bash AD, but the guy produces better than anyone on the team.

GoReds33
02-19-2008, 05:37 PM
Don't worry; it's just a matter of time before The Magnificent Juan Pierre is a Red. Bank on it.I wouldn't have a problem at all with that. Sure he's getting older, and slower. Sure, he doesn't have an ounce of power. Still, I'd love to see how much ground he could cover here. That would defenitly help the defense, except maybe the fact that he has next to no throwing arm.

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2008, 05:56 PM
I wouldn't have a problem at all with that. Sure he's getting older, and slower. Sure, he doesn't have an ounce of power. Still, I'd love to see how much ground he could cover here. That would defenitly help the defense, except maybe the fact that he has next to no throwing arm.

He doesn't get on base. He hits about .290 and has OBP that hovers around .330. He's not a very good outfielder either. I would much rather have Fropper in CF than Juan... He's absolutely terrible!

BLEEDS
02-19-2008, 06:06 PM
Color me dubious. As someone who posted the Reds payroll plans on here a few months ago covering 2008-2011, I don't know that that statement is quite accurate.

I'll go back into my graphs, now knowing what we know about contracts, especially the Cordero signing and BPhil extension.

Not sure, but I think we'll be surprised. I'll wait to say with certainty that the Reds can afford Dunn AND other needed parts once I see the actual numbers laid out.

We've both done that in the past. Right now, it's pretty stagnant at about $60-65M - not counting Dunn of course - assuming options are picked up, and now including BP at $11M in 2011.

For every "guy who might get to Arb" there's a Freel/Stanton/Gonzo that is coming off the books...

Our current crop for 2009 is at $60M, without looking at Dunn, and with rookies penciled in for releasing vets such as Griff/Ross/Valentin/Hatt/Weathers/Stanton, and counting $3M for EE and Belisle in Arbitration.

The money is THERE to spend on Dunn - even at $15M - and be only at $75M, and have more $$ to spend. About the same as is on the books right now for 2008.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Trace's Daddy
02-19-2008, 06:14 PM
Will someone please tell me what Reds player is a better hitter than Dunn? What Reds in history have been as productive in 4 consecutive seasons as Dunn? Name a Red besides Dunn to drive in 100 runs since 2001... Name a Red besides Dunn to walk 100 times since 2001... name a Red besides Dunn to hit 35+ HRs besides Dunn since 2001... name a Red to score 100+ runs since 2001.

I'm sure once again people will find a reason to bash AD, but the guy produces better than anyone on the team.

....yeah....but he strikes out a lot!!!:rolleyes:


I hope they sign him long term before opening day.

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 06:39 PM
Im starting to feel bad I started this thread :laugh:

GoReds33
02-19-2008, 06:54 PM
He doesn't get on base. He hits about .290 and has OBP that hovers around .330. He's not a very good outfielder either. I would much rather have Fropper in CF than Juan... He's absolutely terrible!I'm not saying that he would be an awesome player or anything. I just think that he would help with getting a little more speed in the lineup. Every time he's on base he's a threat to steal. He's one of the fastest guys in MLB. His contract with the Dodgers is rediculious. I'll admit that I didn't know it was that bad before I wrote that. It would take a lot of money coming our way in any deal involving Pierre for me to consider it. That being said, it would hold us over until Stubbs gets up here.

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 06:58 PM
Juan Pierre is really really bad

Nasty_Boy
02-19-2008, 07:40 PM
Pierre also gets thrown out about 25% of the time. I'm not a big fan of having a guy on the team that only has 1 positive ability. Let LA pay that contract, the Reds have no need for a player like that. In all honesty, this shouldn't be a conversation. Bruce is the best CF, leadoff hitter be damned!

Blue
02-19-2008, 07:46 PM
great googily moogily. our fans sure do enjoy hating on the best player on their favorite team.

AmarilloRed
02-19-2008, 08:26 PM
Adam Dunn will consistantly give you 40 hr, 90 rbi, and 80-100 walks. He is not my favorite player, but the trade of Hamilton made it imperative we sign him to a LTC.

smoke6
02-19-2008, 09:33 PM
Juan Pierre is really really bad

Yes,
Corey Patterson>Juan Pierre

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 09:36 PM
Yes,
Corey Patterson>Juan Pierre

Both arent worth one of our roster spots probably

GoReds33
02-19-2008, 10:09 PM
Both arent worth one of our roster spots probablyYeah, but you could say that about a lot of Reds players the last couple years. Moeller, Castro, Sarloos, Ellison, etc. However, after looking at all of your arguments, and re-looking up Pierre's stats, Pierre shouldn't be in the Reds future plans whatsoever. $7.5 million is a bit strong for my taste.

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 10:16 PM
Yeah, but you could say that about a lot of Reds players the last couple years. Moeller, Castro, Sarloos, Ellison, etc. However, after looking at all of your arguments, and re-looking up Pierre's stats, Pierre shouldn't be in the Reds future plans whatsoever. $7.5 million is a bit strong for my taste.

If only my other arguments went over as well as saying someone is really really bad. :laugh:

Handofdeath
02-19-2008, 10:29 PM
great googily moogily. our fans sure do enjoy hating on the best player on their favorite team.

No, they enjoy hating on Adam Dunn. The best player is Aaron Harang.

Bip Roberts
02-19-2008, 10:33 PM
Honestly the best player is just a pointless argument because so many emotions are involved.

smoke6
02-19-2008, 11:51 PM
Will someone please tell me what Reds player is a better hitter than Dunn? What Reds in history have been as productive in 4 consecutive seasons as Dunn? Name a Red besides Dunn to drive in 100 runs since 2001... Name a Red besides Dunn to walk 100 times since 2001... name a Red besides Dunn to hit 35+ HRs besides Dunn since 2001... name a Red to score 100+ runs since 2001.

I'm sure once again people will find a reason to bash AD, but the guy produces better than anyone on the team.

O.K., but what have the Reds done since 2001?
Answer...NOTHING

I'm not hating on AD, but there are many parts of his game that aren't up to par. He walks a lot which is good, but how many RBI he would have if he didn't either K every other at bat?

AmarilloRed
02-20-2008, 12:03 AM
Let's get back to my favorite subject-signing Adam Dunn to a LTC. You must realize that both Griffey and Dunn are a major part of the Reds offense, we have no one in the minor league system to approach their production, and the trade of Josh Hamilton weakened the depth of our starting outfielders. I like Norris Hopper, but unless he learns to take a walk he will be unable to get on base enough to be a leadoff hitter or a starting outfielder. Chris Dickerson is athletic, but he does not make enough contact to play in the majors in the near future. Ryan Freel used to be a good hitter, but I fear the injuries have robbed of some of his speed, and I don't know if he will ever hit .300 again.

This leads me to the conclusion that despite all his warts(and he has a couple); it is simply in the best interests of the Cincinnati Reds to sign Dunn to a LTC.

ChatterRed
02-20-2008, 10:38 AM
Dunn is not the best player on the Reds.

Okay, there you have it. End of argument. ;)

bubbachunk
02-20-2008, 11:09 AM
The best play on the Cincinnati reds is clearly Brandon Phillips hands down.
Brandon- 187 hits, 107 runs, 30 hrs, 94 rbi, so 109, avg 288
Dunn- 138 hits, 101 runs, 40 hrs, 106 rbi, so 165, 264

As you can see phillips is dead even or better in all the major offensive categories then Dunn not to mention the man can field a baseball!

CySeymour
02-20-2008, 11:50 AM
The best play on the Cincinnati reds is clearly Brandon Phillips hands down.
Brandon- 187 hits, 107 runs, 30 hrs, 94 rbi, so 109, avg 288
Dunn- 138 hits, 101 runs, 40 hrs, 106 rbi, so 165, 264

As you can see phillips is dead even or better in all the major offensive categories then Dunn not to mention the man can field a baseball!

Just to add another stat to the mix. Reds leader in Win Shares for 2007: Adam Dunn with 21, Brandon Phillips had 18. This per the Hardball Times.

Ahhhorsepoo
02-20-2008, 12:13 PM
b phill makes me go to games.. adam dunn makes me not want to go.. in my mind b phill is better.. for the record..

Z-Fly
02-20-2008, 01:03 PM
Just to add another stat to the mix. Reds leader in Win Shares for 2007: Adam Dunn with 21, Brandon Phillips had 18. This per the Hardball Times.

how do they figure this out?

Nasty_Boy
02-20-2008, 01:09 PM
The best play on the Cincinnati reds is clearly Brandon Phillips hands down.
Brandon- 187 hits, 107 runs, 30 hrs, 94 rbi, so 109, avg 288
Dunn- 138 hits, 101 runs, 40 hrs, 106 rbi, so 165, 264

As you can see phillips is dead even or better in all the major offensive categories then Dunn not to mention the man can field a baseball!


You forgot a key stat, OBP! Phillips makes more outs than Dunn and he hits into more double plays. Dunn does a consistently better job than any Red at getting on base, driving in runs, and scoring runs. Phillips may be the best overall player but Dunn is the best hitter.

Also Dunn's OPS was .940 compared to Phillips' .816. Phillips grounded into as many DPs as Dunn and Griffey combined. He accounted for more outs than Dunn, but since they weren't strikeouts it doesn't matter. Phillips accomplished these feats in 70 more plate appearances than Dunn. I don't see how in any way you can claim that Phillips is a better hitter... unless you go back to stat to end all stats, BATTING AVERAGE!

Ahhhorsepoo
02-20-2008, 01:16 PM
to be the best hitter.. you must actually get more hits than whiffs.. something he has never done.. sorry.. all he does is hack and whack at the ball.. succeeding at hitting a homerun more than his other hits.. theres a problem when someone has 30% of their hits being homeruns.. and striking out at almost a 3:2 ratio of his career hits.. sorry but more k's than hits does not EVER mean best hitter.. it might mean strongest hitter.. but clearly not the best..

Nasty_Boy
02-20-2008, 01:49 PM
to be the best hitter.. you must actually get more hits than whiffs.. something he has never done.. sorry.. all he does is hack and whack at the ball.. succeeding at hitting a homerun more than his other hits.. theres a problem when someone has 30% of their hits being homeruns.. and striking out at almost a 3:2 ratio of his career hits.. sorry but more k's than hits does not EVER mean best hitter.. it might mean strongest hitter.. but clearly not the best..


Since when does more hits than whiffs matter? I don't understand why hitting the ball out of the park more than hitting singles or doubles is a bad thing? Dunn had 69 XBH and 69 singles, for whatever that's worth.

Here's my question... How can Phillips make more outs than Dunn and be considered the teams best hitter? In 70 less plate appearances Dunn got on base more than Phillips. The point of the game is to avoid making an out either by hit or walk. Just because Phillips may swing and hit a nubber to short instead of swinging and missing it does not make him the best hitter. If you go on strikeouts Phillips is the 2nd worst hitter on the team behind Dunn.

AmarilloRed
02-20-2008, 01:58 PM
I don't think the subject is really whether Adam Dunn is or is not the best player on the Reds-it is whether or not we should sign him to a LTC. We have a shortage of starting outfielders on the Reds with the trade of Hamilton, and any comparable player to replace Dunn's offense would cost as much or more in terms of salary.Bruce has the potential to be a player like Dunn, that will still leave us one starting outfielder short. Griffey is here for now,but I expect Griffey will be retiring soon. We will need to sign him to a LTC, at least until we can get some more starting outfielders from our minor league system.

Nasty_Boy
02-20-2008, 02:13 PM
I totally agree. Once Hamilton was traded, keeping Dunn should have became a priority.

mlbfan30
02-20-2008, 02:20 PM
Dorn has a chance had producing similar production in the sense of a left handed poor defensive LF who will get some walks, SO a lot, have a low BA, and have some power. Dorn might give you 2.5 Wins less production at league minimum. It depends on 2009 to see if we need those extra wins.
Stubbs is another player that could replace Dunn's production. He'll have a low BA/decent OBP/low power/high K/high SB/ but have great defense. He might be worth 1.5 wins less than Dunn.

It all really depends on Griffey, what the Reds do in 2008, and the development of Stubbs and Dorn. The FA class is....

Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli * TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds SD
Juan Encarnacion STL
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Shawn Green NYM
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay OAK
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench MIL
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik CWS
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN

The * means option so it's a really weak FA class. Juan Rivera might be the best in terms of potential for a low salary and decent production.

Dunn is easily the best FA, and he'll be paid like it

Nasty_Boy
02-20-2008, 02:22 PM
Dorn has a chance had producing similar production in the sense of a left handed poor defensive LF who will get some walks, SO a lot, have a low BA, and have some power. Dorn might give you 2.5 Wins less production at league minimum. It depends on 2009 to see if we need those extra wins.
Stubbs is another player that could replace Dunn's production. He'll have a low BA/decent OBP/low power/high K/high SB/ but have great defense. He might be worth 1.5 wins less than Dunn.

It all really depends on Griffey, what the Reds do in 2008, and the development of Stubbs and Dorn. The FA class is....

Bobby Abreu NYY
Moises Alou NYM
Garret Anderson * LAA
Rocco Baldelli * TB
Willie Bloomquist SEA
Emil Brown OAK
Pat Burrell PHI
Endy Chavez NYM
Carl Crawford * TB
Adam Dunn CIN
Jim Edmonds SD
Juan Encarnacion STL
Cliff Floyd TB
Brian Giles * SD
Shawn Green NYM
Ken Griffey Jr. * CIN
Vladimir Guerrero * LAA
Raul Ibanez SEA
Jacque Jones DET
Mark Kotsay OAK
Rob Mackowiak WAS
Kevin Mench MIL
Jason Michaels * CLE
Craig Monroe MIN
Jay Payton BAL
Scott Podsednik CWS
Manny Ramirez * BOS
Juan Rivera LAA
Rondell White MIN

The * means option so it's a really weak FA class. Juan Rivera might be the best in terms of potential for a low salary and decent production.

Dunn is easily the best FA, and he'll be paid like it

This is true, and Dunn will be gone in July if the Reds are out of contention. Wayne and Walt have some big decisions to make that could alter the direction of this team for years to come.

Degenerate39
02-20-2008, 02:24 PM
I don't think the subject is really whether Adam Dunn is or is not the best player on the Reds-it is whether or not we should sign him to a LTC. We have a shortage of starting outfielders on the Reds with the trade of Hamilton, and any comparable player to replace Dunn's offense would cost as much or more in terms of salary.Bruce has the potential to be a player like Dunn, that will still leave us one starting outfielder short. Griffey is here for now,but I expect Griffey will be retiring soon. We will need to sign him to a LTC, at least until we can get some more starting outfielders from our minor league system.

You hit the nail right on the head Amarilo. Right now it doesn't matter if Dunn is the best on the team or not because he's the only dependable outfielder the Reds have right now. Griffey is a walking injury (don't get me wrong I love Griffey to death). Hopper has no power what-so-ever. Freel is crazy and can run into a walk then break something at any time. Bruce is unproven in the Majors so far but I want to see what he can do on opening day. Dunn would probably be decently cheap compared to another 40 homer guy. The Reds need to sign Dunn long term this season more than ever since they no longer have Hamilton. Dunn's pretty important to this offense. How will the team look if Dunn is gone, Griffey gets hurt, and Bruce doesn't pan out? Well your outfield will look like this or something like this: LF- Dickerson, CF- Hopper, RF- Freel. That outfield might combine to hit 15 homers in a season if they have some luck.

Bip Roberts
02-20-2008, 02:27 PM
We have been down the dominating line up road many times.

SMcGavin
02-20-2008, 08:30 PM
Dorn has a chance had producing similar production in the sense of a left handed poor defensive LF who will get some walks, SO a lot, have a low BA, and have some power. Dorn might give you 2.5 Wins less production at league minimum. It depends on 2009 to see if we need those extra wins.
Stubbs is another player that could replace Dunn's production. He'll have a low BA/decent OBP/low power/high K/high SB/ but have great defense. He might be worth 1.5 wins less than Dunn.


Well maybe Dorn will pan out. I think a career similar to Adam Dunn's though is a longshot for him. Dorn has had less than 100 ABs above A ball so I wouldn't really factor in Dorn on the decision about Dunn's contract. I think letting Dunn go because you are counting on Dorn (or Stubbs) to get ML-ready very quickly would be a mistake. I'd do my best to keep Adam around, and if Dorn pans out we can figure out what to do with him later.

Also this would be easier if Dunn and Dorn didn't have such similar names...