12 spots - who's not likely to come north?

[UPRedsFan]

With so many good arms in camp for a change, some familiar names will not be coming north this year. Consider who's probably a lock, who probably has a good shot and who probably falls into the long shot category by default.

Locks:
Harang
Arroyo
Fogg (might have just bumped Affeldt to pen which could bump Stanton out)
Affeldt
Weathers
Cordero
Volquez (didn't trade Hamilton for AAA pitcher)

Good shot to make club
Belisle
Burton (maybe he's a lock)
Bray
Bailey
Cueto
Roenicke
Valenzuela (if they want to keep him of course thru rule 5)

Long shot to make club
Maloney
Coffey
Majewski
Stanton (wishful thinking, there's only so many spots! )
Coutlangus
McBeth

I don't know if I've got them ranked right, but Coffey Majewski Coutlangus McBeth and even Stanton better be lights out this spring or they may not make it.

[Stephenk29]

I would think Burton and Belisle are locks, and I'm not sure I'd call Coffey a long shot. Yeah last year was pitiful but the year before wasn't to shab. I think they'll be willing to give him a shot at the start of the year to reprove himself.

[Bip Roberts]

Louisville is north :laugh:

[fugowitribe]

Why can't we let Coffey do his sprints in Louisville. I think it would be best for the club to change as many faces from last year's embarassment know as our bullpen as possible.

[CRedsLarkin11]

I'd say Burton, Belisle and Coffey are probably locks. Other than that, I agree with what you have. Stanton will more than likely make the team but he shouldn't

[mroby85]

Why can't we let Coffey do his sprints in Louisville. I think it would be best for the club to change as many faces from last year's embarassment know as our bullpen as possible.

greater words have never been spoken!

[jmac]

I'd say Burton, Belisle and Coffey are probably locks. Other than that, I agree with what you have. Stanton will more than likely make the team but he shouldn't

I agree with the others that Coffey should under no circumstances be called a lock.
If he earns it , fine.
Agree on Stanton.

[hebroncougar]

Affeldt will go to the pen, but he won't replace Stanton. He'll replace Bray, who already has a sore shoulder.

[UPRedsFan]

Ok, I'll agree with Burton and Belisle as locks.

That makes 9. Who are the other 3?

[captainmorgan07]

burton an belisle are locks, affeldt would be my pick to replace bray in the pen if he isn't healthy. Coffey better get his act together or he's in louisville for an extended amount of time. Volquez makes the rotation, Fogg and the youngersts battle for the last spot.

[Va Red Fan]

Rotation

Harang
Arroyo
Fogg
Volquez
Belisle

Pen
Affeldt
Weathers
Cordero
Burton
Roenicke (I know its a long shot)
Coffey (if he's more 2 years ago than last year)
McBeth (I think he still has much to show)

The wonderboys pitch at AAA until they burst out by dominating or one of the starters get injured - the second is far more likely. Maloney gets more seasoning and Cout gets more confidence for a later debut.

Maybe wishful thinking, but that's my take.

[757690]

Rotation:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Fogg
Affeldt

Bullpen:

Belisle
Majewski
Sauerback
Bray
Burton
Weathers
Cordero

Stanton will start the season on the DL. There is on way they can justify keeping him on the roster, but they can't release him due to his contract. He will spend most of the season on the DL.

[BigRed]

Rotation
Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Fogg
Cueto

Bullpen
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Affeldt
Volquez
Mercker
Stanton (They just won't eat the $)

[mlbfan30]

nvm

[mlbfan30]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Volquez
Fogg

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Affeldt

Stanton
Coffey
Bray - Coutlangus

The 1st Group is the predicted starting rotation.
The 2nd Group is the predicted locks in the bullpen
The 3rd Group are the predicted final 3 spots in the bullpen.
I have Bray's replacement there only because I believe he will be hurt. Coutlangus is only Bray's replacement to fill the LH RP slot.

The bullpen seems to be below average. There is a reasonable chance the top 4 could post ERAs under 4.00, but we don't have superior type arms. I'm not sure if the manager is smart enough to maximize the roles of each pitcher. You need to look at the Indians and D-Backs to see how a bullpen needs to be used.

The rotation does look pretty good. It's reasonable to expect Belisle to improve and an ERA around 4.50 is very possible. Volquez could post an ERA around 4.00 or 5.00. He's the wild card. I think the success of the team depends on how well he performs. Fogg is solid #5.

The main reason why this teams pitching will be better is because of the depth. Bailey/ Maloney/Cueto will be in AAA. Affeldt could spot start. Livingston will be back midseason.
I really think that Cueto could become the Gallardo of last year.

[AmarilloRed]

No one has mentioned Brad Salmon. I think he could either be a good shot to make the club, or a longshot. He was one of the best relievers on the Reds last year(not saying much, I know.):D

[TN Red Fan]

Harang
Arroyo
Belise
Fogg
Affeldt

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Bray
Coffee
Coutlangus
Majewski

All the youngsters start off in Louisville, then go from there. Take it slow, since we're not real contenders, anyway.

[GoReds33]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Bailey
Volquez

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Roenkie
Coffey
Bray
Majewski

I have a suspicion Josh Roenkie will make the team. I also think they will want to put a couple hard throwing youngsters in the rotation.

[mlbfan30]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Bailey
Volquez

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Roenkie
Coffey
Bray
Majewski

I have a suspicion Josh Roenkie will make the team. I also think they will want to put a couple hard throwing youngsters in the rotation.

They didn't sign Affeldt and Fogg to not have them make the team. Affeldt is going to be in the pen, and Fogg is going to be in the rotation unless he absolutly does horrible in ST

[GoReds33]

They didn't sign Affeldt and Fogg to not have them make the team. Affeldt is going to be in the pen, and Fogg is going to be in the rotation unless he absolutly does horrible in STI agree that Affeldt may go to the bullpen. To be honest, I just forgot about him. However, I don't think Fogg will make the team, because he doesn't have the versatility to be a reliever. At some point this year, he's going to be taken out of the rotation. I just don't see what he's going to give us that Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez can't.

[Va Red Fan]

However, I don't think Fogg will make the team, because he doesn't have the versatility to be a reliever. At some point this year, he's going to be taken out of the rotation. I just don't see what he's going to give us that Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez can't.

Fogg gives us a league average starter with nine years expereince. He makes stable a rather shakey rotation. He is a steal at $1 million for the year. He got burned by free agency, but he was due to get much more money. He merely waited until the market ran dry so we get the benefit. He was brought in to be a member of the rotation and he will be a good addition.
What he gives that the three young guns can't is dependable starts from day one. He is a known commodity and that is worth much on a team that previously had two proven starters and many prayers.

[GoReds33]

Fogg gives us a league average starter with nine years expereince. He makes stable a rather shakey rotation. He is a steal at $1 million for the year. He got burned by free agency, but he was due to get much more money. He merely waited until the market ran dry so we get the benefit. He was brought in to be a member of the rotation and he will be a good addition.
What he gives that the three young guns can't is dependable starts from day one. He is a known commodity and that is worth much on a team that previously had two proven starters and many prayers.First off, he isn't league average. Last year, his ERA was 4.94. The year before that it was 5.49. Compare that to last year's NL league average ERA which was 4.12. Sure he's a veteran, but he's not consistant. In fact, he's pretty inconsistant:
Last ten starts:


DATE OPP W L ERA SV IP H ER BB SO
AUG 06 MIL 1 0 4.73 0 7.0 6 2 1 2
AUG 11 CHC 1 0 4.64 0 6.0 5 2 2 3
AUG 17 @LAD 0 1 4.82 0 6.2 8 6 0 4
AUG 22 PIT 0 1 5.27 0 3.0 11 8 1 0
AUG 27 @SF 0 0 5.10 0 6.0 3 1 4 1
SEP 02 @ARI 1 0 5.01 0 6.0 7 2 3 6
SEP 09 SD 1 0 4.90 0 5.0 7 1 3 2
SEP 14 FLA 0 0 4.98 0 5.0 5 4 4 3
SEP 19 LAD 0 0 4.99 0 5.0 8 3 0 2
SEP 26 @LAD 1 0 4.79 0 6.2 5 0 3 5
Totals 5 2 4.63 0 56.1 65 29 21 28

[mlbfan30]

First off, he isn't league average. Last year, his ERA was 4.94. The year before that it was 5.49. Compare that to last year's NL league average ERA which was 4.12. Sure he's a veteran, but he's not consistant. In fact, he's pretty inconsistant:
Last ten starts:

Where did you get that 4.12 stat? It's really 4.43 with no adjustments

[Bip Roberts]

Those stats listed look pretty consistent to me :dunno: Consistently mediocre but consistency does have its value.

[UPRedsFan]

For $1M I'm content with the Fogg sign. If nothing else it's very solid insurance against an injury and ensures a solid #5 instead of a rotating #5 with people not yet ready or never will be ready for the bigs like Shearn

For April I'm predicting:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Affeldt
Fogg

Volquez (middle / long relief until he forces a switch with Fogg)
Bray
Stanton
Majewski (last try)
Burton
Weathers
Cordero

But I'm hoping soon (mid May) that Cueto or Bailey force way into rotation and Affeldt moves to pen replacing Stanton

[mound_patrol]

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Volquez
Fogg

Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Affeldt
Roenkie
Coffey
Stanton

[Blue]

Given Dusty's remarks today, one could infer that the only way we're going to see Jay Bruce this year is if Dunn or Griffey are injured. Asked who would hit leadoff if Hopper or Freel aren't playing he said "I hope one or the other is in the game.", according to Fay.

Translation: "Because I insist on having a scrappy dappy leadoff hitter, I'm going to go ahead and sacrifice a ton of run production. It doesn't matter if Bruce is ready, because we must have a stereotype leadoff hitter."

If this team had eight guys like Alex Rodriguez, one gets the feeling that Dusty would only play seven of them, with Fropper in the leadoff spot.

[Stephenk29]

Why does everyone automatically assume Baker will just not even consider Bruce? Translations like that are blowing things a little out of proportion. Maybe the entire organization feels Bruce might not be ready? I think they would know more than us.

[AmarilloRed]

A 4.13 ERA(in limited action, true) should give Brad Salmon a better chance of being in the bullpen over the likes of Stanton, Bray and Majewski. That could change if Bray is really healthy, however.

[TN Red Fan]

Why does everyone automatically assume Baker will just not even consider Bruce? Translations like that are blowing things a little out of proportion. Maybe the entire organization feels Bruce might not be ready? I think they would know more than us.

He did strike out a lot. Why waste a year of arbitration if you think he'll only hit .280 and 15 HRs or something?

[Hal#23Fan]

Rotation:

Harang
Arroyo
Belisle
Fogg
Volquez

Pen:

Burton
Affeldt
Majewski
Bray
Cordero
Weathers
Coffey

If Belisle, Volquez, or Fogg falter in ST, we have Cueto and Bailey to give the nod to. If Coffey shows any signs of last year, i would give his spot to Roenkie in a hurry. IMO

At any rate, i like our current pitching situation a lot more than last year. :beerme:

[Bip Roberts]

Sergio will be in the pen

[AmarilloRed]

Rotation:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Belisle
Bailey

Pen:
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Salmon
Stanton
Bray
Affeldt

[Hal#23Fan]

Sergio will be in the pen

Who gets the boot in favor of Sergio?

Majewski is throwing great by all accounts.

Coffey maybe, but i would give the spot to Roenkie over Sergio.

I just don't see it. IMHO

Rule 5 bust....maybe?

[Bip Roberts]

Who gets the boot in favor of Sergio?

Majewski is throwing great by all accounts.

Coffey maybe, but i would give the spot to Roenkie over Sergio.

I just don't see it. IMHO

Rule 5 bust....maybe?

I dont know who gets the boot but I still think Sergio is in the pen.

[Hal#23Fan]

Rotation:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Belisle
Bailey

Pen:
Cordero
Weathers
Burton
Salmon
Stanton
Bray
Affeldt

Umm......what about Fogg who just signed a 1 year $1 million dollar BIG league contract??? Fogg will be in there somewhere.

[Hal#23Fan]

I dont know who gets the boot but I still think Sergio is in the pen.

Fair enough. We'll see.

[Bip Roberts]

Fair enough. We'll see.

I heard some decent things about the kid but I also heard plenty of bad things. I can see us giving him the Burton treatment.

[Hal#23Fan]

I heard some decent things about the kid but I also heard plenty of bad things. I can see us giving him the Burton treatment.


Maybe. But last years pen was a lot easier in offering that (Burton) type of opportunity than it will be this year. Competition is at full force from all accounts, so Sergio will have to earn the spot. I like young arms, so i hope you are right.

[Stephenk29]

He did strike out a lot. Why waste a year of arbitration if you think he'll only hit .280 and 15 HRs or something?

Well this is going to happen sooner or later. I doubt he comes into the league and puts up Braun numbers although it is possible. I'm all in favor of him being on the big club this year and starting. However, if the front office (including Dusty:eek:) thinks he's not ready then I'm trusting there judgment over my own.

[AmarilloRed]

Umm......what about Fogg who just signed a 1 year $1 million dollar BIG league contract??? Fogg will be in there somewhere.

Fogg is there for depth. He will make the roster if any of the kids are not ready for the rotation.

[Blue]

Umm......what about Fogg who just signed a 1 year $1 million dollar BIG league contract??? Fogg will be in there somewhere.

He has an option left.

[Bip Roberts]

He has an option left.

It doesnt really work that way