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View Full Version : Are you in favor of a LTC for Edwin?



AmarilloRed
02-24-2008, 12:34 AM
Three more players who could receive contract extensions before Opening Day: Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios, Reds third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and Pirates closer Matt Capps. Rios will earn $4.835 million in his first year of arbitration. Encarnacion and Capps will be eligible for arbitration after this season.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7830284/Notebook:-Reds-fill-rotation-with-cheap-labor?CMP=OTC-K9B140813162&ATT=49



Are you in favor of a LTC for Edwin? Vote Yes or No on whether you would like to see him receive a LTC before Opening Day. I voted yes, as I think we could get him rather cheap as he is yet to have a breakthrough season.

SMcGavin
02-24-2008, 12:59 AM
What's the rush? Has Edwin proven he's our starting third baseman for the next four/five years? I like the kid but I don't see the need for an LTC at this point.

CarolinaRedleg
02-24-2008, 01:08 AM
See what he does this year. Right now, that's putting the cart WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY in front of the horse.

GoReds33
02-24-2008, 01:18 AM
I would consider giving him three years. Past that, I want to see what Frazier, Fransisco, and Waring can do. I think one will pan out into a very good third baseman. I really like Waring too. It would be cool to see what he could do power wise in GABP.

LexingtonLegend
02-24-2008, 02:03 AM
I would at least wait until the year starts to see where he is before even thinking about a long term contract. We saw last year what happened to Todd Coffey, we don't need that again. Make the kid earn it, or there is plenty of talent waiting in the wings.

reds2221
02-24-2008, 02:49 AM
I agree with everyone else on the idea of waiting. He still needs to prove to us that he's our man, which we have yet to see.

Bip Roberts
02-24-2008, 03:36 AM
Only way id want a LTC for Edwin is if he can produce a full season

mlbfan30
02-24-2008, 04:27 AM
A LTC is relatively low risk, probably lower than the BP deal.
Because he is able to walk and has reasonably good plate discipline, its unlikely that EE will become bad enough to be replaceable soon. He has improved on defense and should continue to. People forget that he's the same age as Votto because he's been around for 3 years. EE's contract would be cheap enough so that he could be traded if needed.

BP was worth only 0.1 Wins more in offense last year. That's basically nothing. In 2006 EE was worth 1.5 more Wins. EE would also be signed in his prime years (25-30) compared to (27-32) for BP. By that time most of BPs value (defense) should pretty much be gone.

fourrunhomer
02-24-2008, 10:22 AM
I like EdE but I think its too early to offer a long term deal. I would wait until this season is over at the very least. He's not even elligible for arb until next year.

rose4pope
02-24-2008, 12:37 PM
This question is really a toss-up. If management offers him a long-term contract now, they might get him cheaper than if they wait. Based on Edwin's performance in winter ball, I'd say he might be in for a truly breakout year. If that's the case, he could command quite a sum in arbitration, or an even higher amount for a long-term deal. This is a tough decision I'd say. That's why they pay Krivsky the big bucks I guess.

bubbachunk
02-24-2008, 12:45 PM
How long are you talking?

mlbfan30
02-24-2008, 02:21 PM
A deal like Cano's is what I'd model it after, but maybe just a little bit lower. Having 2 options in 2 years of FA is very important. Something like 2/4/6/8/12/13 with the 12/13 options looks reasonable. Both these players have the same service time.

That's a 6/45 with guaranteed 4/20
Cano was 6/57 with guaranteed 4/28

AmarilloRed
02-24-2008, 03:10 PM
Mlbtraderumors.com says that next year is his first arbitration year. If Rosenthal is correct and the Reds are seeking to give Edwin a LTC before Opening Day, it may mean they believe he is ready for a breakthrough year. If you wait to see how he does this year, I imagine the price to sign Edwin to a LTC would be much higher.

Frazier, Francisco, and Waring are all talented prospects, but they have yet to make the major leagues, and all 3 could end up being busts. I don't know that the Reds will sign him to a LTC, but I imagine it could end up being 3-5 years with 1 or 2 option years.

SMcGavin
02-24-2008, 03:16 PM
A deal like Cano's is what I'd model it after, but maybe just a little bit lower. Having 2 options in 2 years of FA is very important. Something like 2/4/6/8/12/13 with the 12/13 options looks reasonable. Both these players have the same service time.

That's a 6/45 with guaranteed 4/20
Cano was 6/57 with guaranteed 4/28

Hold on now. Robinson Cano has played almost three full seasons and has a .835 career OPS, at a position where the average starter is at .767. Encarnacion has a .798 career OPS at a position where the average starter is at .838. 4/20 is crazy - I think Edwin would have to get markedly better to even get $20M over the next 4 years if we just took him through arbitration.

Stephenk29
02-24-2008, 03:44 PM
what has EE done to warrant one? Can't forget that dismal first half of last year. Maybe if he produces some solid numbers over the next two years.

GoReds33
02-24-2008, 03:47 PM
what has EE done to warrant one? Can't forget that dismal first half of last year. Maybe if he produces some solid numbers over the next two years.He's shown flashes. That's really all a young player needs to do to show his potential. I think that the Reds are worried that if he produces up to his potential next year his price tag could go way up. Right now he could end up being a real bargain if he does play up to that potential, and they have him locked in.

mlbfan30
02-24-2008, 04:38 PM
Hold on now. Robinson Cano has played almost three full seasons and has a .835 career OPS, at a position where the average starter is at .767. Encarnacion has a .798 career OPS at a position where the average starter is at .838. 4/20 is crazy - I think Edwin would have to get markedly better to even get $20M over the next 4 years if we just took him through arbitration.

And I know you didn't fully support the BP deal, but his career OPS is .725. That just is not good.

Last year... BP had a .816 OPS in his amazing breakout year, while
EE had a .794 OPS in his struggling season.
EE had a .832 OPS in 2006, while BP had .751. EE is a better hitter by a comfortable amount. When BP was going into his age 25 season, he had about 340 at bats with an OPS around .600

Stephenk29
02-24-2008, 06:17 PM
He's shown flashes. That's really all a young player needs to do to show his potential. I think that the Reds are worried that if he produces up to his potential next year his price tag could go way up. Right now he could end up being a real bargain if he does play up to that potential, and they have him locked in.

Flashes yes, but LTCs should be limited to the core center pieces of your team. Ed could be that but until he proves it on a consistant basis I don't want to have Ed stuck on our roster if it doesn't pan out. It took Cano a couple of years to get one, BP only after a monster year and Dunn has yet to get one after his best season of production yet. If EE plays to his fullest potential this year then sure why not, but I'm in the wait and see boat.

SMcGavin
02-24-2008, 06:17 PM
And I know you didn't fully support the BP deal, but his career OPS is .725. That just is not good.

Last year... BP had a .816 OPS in his amazing breakout year, while
EE had a .794 OPS in his struggling season.
EE had a .832 OPS in 2006, while BP had .751. EE is a better hitter by a comfortable amount. When BP was going into his age 25 season, he had about 340 at bats with an OPS around .600

You're right, I wasn't crazy about BP's extension. But one thing to consider when you compare their numbers is the positions they play - relative to their positional peers BP's career .725 OPS is pretty similar to EE's .798. Another difference is that BP is a better defender than EE (though Edwin is getting better). The final thing is that Phillips just showed he was capable of having a significantly above average season for his position. Edwin hasn't yet. So yeah I was apprehensive about the Phillips deal, but I would like a long term contract to EE even less. I don't think their situtations are that comparable.

Now if EE comes out this season and puts up a .875 OPS then yeah, we probably lost some money by not extending him now. But IMO you've got to make him show he's worthy before you commit $20M to him.

Va Red Fan
02-24-2008, 06:42 PM
EE may have a long, wonderful career ahead of him, but he has proven very littl so far. What we know is that for short periods he can hit well. He still is not an ideal fielder at any position. Not in favor of over extending an offer on potential. See WilyMo Pena.

Oxblood
11-25-2009, 02:14 PM
Did some digging, thought this was surprising.