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View Full Version : Kyle Lohse anyone?



Newman4
02-24-2008, 03:22 PM
from mlbtradrumors:

Kyle Lohse is not interested in a minor league deal or playing in another country. He's still waiting by the phone though

Maybe another bargain pickup? Assuming Lohse takes a spot in the rotation, Affledt and Volquez both move to the pen. That's a pretty solid group.

Bip Roberts
02-24-2008, 03:27 PM
No thanks way too inconsistent from start to start

GoReds33
02-24-2008, 03:30 PM
I would give him a Major League deal, but tell him that he may have to come out of the bullpen. I think he would give the bullpen a little more punch. He throws hard, so I think he could produce a sub 4.0 era from the bullpen.

SMcGavin
02-24-2008, 03:34 PM
I've been through the Lohse debate before. I'd love to have him, especially on a one year deal where he knows he has to perform to get a big contract in the offseason. I don't know if it makes sense after signing Fogg though, if I could undo the Fogg signing and get Lohse for say 1 yr / $4M I'd do it. I don't know what kind of money he's looking for though.

bubbachunk
02-24-2008, 04:38 PM
God no please no!

redsfanmia
02-24-2008, 04:41 PM
Lets sign him and go with a 7 man rotation.

Va Red Fan
02-24-2008, 06:44 PM
We could do far worse for the final spot in the rotation, especially if he comes at a "nobdy else is interested" discount.

bubbachunk
02-24-2008, 07:16 PM
We could do far worse for the final spot in the rotation, especially if he comes at a "nobdy else is interested" discount.

I would rather have one of the young guys be inconsistent at the end and learn hot to pitch then suffer through more untapped kyle lohse potential

Newman4
02-24-2008, 09:15 PM
You guys wouldn't want a 4.6-ish ERA in the 3/4/5 spot? That's Lohse's ERA since coming to the NL. I'd take him back for a one year deal at 5 million or under.

BucksandReds
02-24-2008, 09:54 PM
Lohse is an average to better than average NL starter. Why would you not want him? Wouldn't putting three average starters with Harang and Arroyo mean that we have great pitching?

BearcatShane
02-24-2008, 10:03 PM
If we didn't sigh Fogg, then Yes. But we signed Fogg.

Carolina Red
02-24-2008, 10:11 PM
I'd like to have him for one reason. If we are indeed building for '09 and beyond we could deal him again in July for another prospect or two. Other than that, he's too much of a head case, not the kind of influence the youngsters need.

BearcatShane
02-24-2008, 10:18 PM
I'm not a blind Reds homer. But I feel many on this board are underrating the Reds severely. I'm not sure people realize how many more games we would of won last year with Cordero as our closer. With Weathers in the seventh or eighth, Burton in the seventh or eighth, and Cordero in the ninth this team changes alot and for the Better. It really does become a six inning game on most nights and I think we can find two pitchers outside of Harang and Arroyo to give us 5-6 solid innings on most nights. I really do. I'm not saying the Reds are going to win the World Series, but contending is a very, very real possibility.

Bip Roberts
02-24-2008, 10:23 PM
He goes out and gets blasted too many times a year for me. It has to be hard on a bullpen to never know if a guy is going to go 9 or 1 1/3

Bip Roberts
02-24-2008, 10:23 PM
I'm not a blind Reds homer. But I feel many on this board are underrating the Reds severely. I'm not sure people realize how many more games we would of won last year with Cordero as our closer. With Weathers in the seventh or eighth, Burton in the seventh or eighth, and Cordero in the ninth this team changes alot and for the Better. It really does become a six inning game on most nights and I think we can find two pitchers outside of Harang and Arroyo to give us 5-6 solid innings on most nights. I really do. I'm not saying the Reds are going to win the World Series, but contending is a very, very real possibility.
Yep if we converted half the blown saves last year we were only a couple games out of 1st.

BucksandReds
02-25-2008, 12:26 AM
Yep if we converted half the blown saves last year we were only a couple games out of 1st.

I read a stat where if our bullpen had pitched as well as St Loius's then we would have won the division. Worst Bullpen in the NL at 5.10 and second worst pitched 4.77. That's kind of a ridiculous stat if you think about it. We should contend into August or later for the next 4 years. We are a middle of the pack team now and being in a weak division and with all of our youngsters we have a chance to make the playoffs this year.

mroby85
02-25-2008, 12:28 AM
i couldn't care less if they sign him, if it's not to a huge contract, the only reason i was opposed, was because of the ridiculously huge numbers that were floating around he was supposed to get.

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 12:34 AM
I read a stat where if our bullpen had pitched as well as St Loius's then we would have won the division. Worst Bullpen in the NL at 5.10 and second worst pitched 4.77. That's kind of a ridiculous stat if you think about it. We should contend into August or later for the next 4 years. We are a middle of the pack team now and being in a weak division and with all of our youngsters we have a chance to make the playoffs this year.

The lack of us having a 5th rotation spot really hurt us last year also. Im gonna have to check that stat out some time tonight.

BearcatShane
02-25-2008, 12:53 AM
Yep if we converted half the blown saves last year we were only a couple games out of 1st.


Right, and now that it APPEARS that the bullpen is solidified with Cordero manning the ninth and Burton and Weathers in the 7th and 8th you would have to believe the blown saves would decrease by more than a few. Would you agree?

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 12:57 AM
Right, and now that it APPEARS that the bullpen is solidified with Cordero manning the ninth and Burton and Weathers in the 7th and 8th you would have to believe the blown saves would decrease by more than a few. Would you agree?

Yea no doubt

mlbfan30
02-25-2008, 01:03 AM
IP/GS
2007 - 5.91 - Loshe - Career - 5.77
2007 - 5.61 - Fogg - Career - 5.66
5.15 - Affeldt (Career since he didnt start last year)
2007 - 5.92 - Belisle - Career - 5.71

The assumption that Loshe doesn't go deep enough into games is just purely wrong. Fogg, and especially Affeldt are the ones you need to worry about.

BearcatShane
02-25-2008, 01:03 AM
Ok, then if the blown saves decrease you would have to think the Reds would win more games. So why is it that you believe they are going to be so bad this year?

BearcatShane
02-25-2008, 01:05 AM
IP/GS
2007 - 5.91 - Loshe - Career - 5.77
2007 - 5.61 - Fogg - Career - 5.66
5.15 - Affeldt (Career since he didnt start last year)
2007 - 5.92 - Belisle - Career - 5.71

The assumption that Loshe doesn't go deep enough into games is just purely wrong. Fogg, and especially Affeldt are the ones you need to worry about.

The thing with Lohse is he'll give ya 7 innings and 3 runs one start and then go 2 and a 3rd the next start.

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 01:09 AM
Just by quickly adding up stats our 5th spot in the rotation posted a ERA of about 8. Its not exact but its not that far off either.

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 01:10 AM
IP/GS
2007 - 5.91 - Loshe - Career - 5.77
2007 - 5.61 - Fogg - Career - 5.66
5.15 - Affeldt (Career since he didnt start last year)
2007 - 5.92 - Belisle - Career - 5.71

The assumption that Loshe doesn't go deep enough into games is just purely wrong. Fogg, and especially Affeldt are the ones you need to worry about.

Who said he didnt go far into games? He throws gems all the time but he also throws duds. It averages out to be solid but game by game hes a nightmare.

BearcatShane
02-25-2008, 01:14 AM
Josh Fogg has a 60-60 career record with a high ERA. I normally don't look into record like this but him having a 60-60 career record with such a high ERA tells me he can keep you in the game if you can score a few runs. Basically he's a good guy to have on the mound in those 6-5 type games because he wont shut anyone down but normally wont get his brains beat in either. I hope I made sence.

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 01:21 AM
Josh Fogg has a 60-60 career record with a high ERA. I normally don't look into record like this but him having a 60-60 career record with such a high ERA tells me he can keep you in the game if you can score a few runs. Basically he's a good guy to have on the mound in those 6-5 type games because he wont shut anyone down but normally wont get his brains beat in either. I hope I made sence.
I understood it :)

Pitching isnt just about what your yearly stats its also about limiting the starts that your team just cant compete in because you only went 2 ip of 6 er.

mlbfan30
02-25-2008, 01:34 AM
Games Starting with less than 5 IP. 5 IP is used because you need 5 IP to get a Win.

2007 - 8 - Loshe
2007 - 4 - Fogg
2007 - 3 - Belisle

Now we will post the amount of 5 IP games which include any range of 5 IP\

2007 - 2 - Loshe (that's really low)
2007 - 9 - Fogg (all exactly 5IP)
2007 - 10 - Belisle


But how about times the Bullpen were saved? You can't look at just 1 extreme and not the other for a fair assessment. 8+ IP

2007 - 4 - Loshe
2007 - 0 - Fogg
2007 - 1 - Belisle

So while Loshe will have just 4-5 more "horrible" games, he will also be more likely to pitch deeper into game and have the great games. Fogg is going to consistently be at the 5-6IP mark. It depends on what you think is better, but Loshe is very likely to pitch 6IP+ compared to Fogg/Belisle

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 01:42 AM
Games Starting with less than 5 IP. 5 IP is used because you need 5 IP to get a Win.

2007 - 8 - Loshe
2007 - 4 - Fogg
2007 - 3 - Belisle

Now we will post the amount of 5 IP games which include any range of 5 IP\

2007 - 2 - Loshe (that's really low)
2007 - 9 - Fogg (all exactly 5IP)
2007 - 10 - Belisle


But how about times the Bullpen were saved? You can't look at just 1 extreme and not the other for a fair assessment. 8+ IP

2007 - 4 - Loshe
2007 - 0 - Fogg
2007 - 1 - Belisle

So while Loshe will have just 4-5 more "horrible" games, he will also be more likely to pitch deeper into game and have the great games. Fogg is going to consistently be at the 5-6IP mark. It depends on what you think is better, but Loshe is very likely to pitch 6IP+ compared to Fogg/Belisle
I think the bad starts hurt the pen more than the good starts help it. Thats just my opinion though.

mlbfan30
02-25-2008, 01:49 AM
I think the bad starts hurt the pen more than the good starts help it. Thats just my opinion though.

Are 5 IP bad starts? That requires 4 IP of the bullpen which is quite a bit. Fogg is an expert at those 5IP starts.

Is 4 starts of less than 5 IP worse than - 7 GS of 5 IP + 4 GS of 8+IP? Its hard for me to think it is

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 02:19 AM
Are 5 IP bad starts? That requires 4 IP of the bullpen which is quite a bit. Fogg is an expert at those 5IP starts.

Is 4 starts of less than 5 IP worse than - 7 GS of 5 IP + 4 GS of 8+IP? Its hard for me to think it is

Its a good argument that im not sure who's more correct. Id argue that the pitcher that goes 5-6 every start is going to be much more appreciated than the starter whos range is 1 - 9 ip.

Of course that is pitchers who are only separated between 1/3rd of an inning per start.

mlbfan30
02-25-2008, 02:25 AM
Loshe had 3 games less than or 3 IP
Fogg had 2 games

In 1 of Loshe's starts he was taken out at 1 IP but gave up 1 Run, so that's an anomaly.

Bip Roberts
02-25-2008, 02:43 AM
Loshe had 3 games less than or 3 IP
Fogg had 2 games

In 1 of Loshe's starts he was taken out at 1 IP but gave up 1 Run, so that's an anomaly.

Im not really trying to argue which is better or worse. Both have their negatives and positives its just which one you want to go with. If I had to pick id go with Lohse. With out money being a factor of course.

I havent seen Fogg pitch really though.

UPRedsFan
02-25-2008, 10:44 AM
I'd have to agree, Lohse is a better option than Fogg. Only reason I can see they went with Fogg is the money and his willingness to sign a 1 year deal. Looks like Lohse is being stubborn which is why he's still at home.

ChatterRed
02-25-2008, 06:57 PM
If Lohse will sign for the league minimum, then I'll take a look at him.

;)