PDA

View Full Version : Jay Bruce - Baseball America's #1 Prospect



dougdirt
02-26-2008, 01:20 PM
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

Still making my way through the list, but Bruce comes in at #1, Homer Bailey comes in at #9, Johnny Cueto comes in at #34 and Joey Votto at #44 and Drew Stubbs at #100.

Bip Roberts
02-26-2008, 01:26 PM
Votto seems to to get the most random rankings from people. Some people put him around the top 20 some people put him out of the top 50 and then other put him some where in between. I wonder if its just because he plays 1b or if they just kinda draw names out of hats once they get past the 1st tier prospects

Triples
02-26-2008, 01:28 PM
At what point does a guy stop being a prospect and what constitutes a "prospect"? Kosuke Fukudome, how is he a prospect and at #30 to boot?? A bunch of those guys are locks on the majors including Ellsbury and Chamberlin.

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 01:40 PM
At what point does a guy stop being a prospect and what constitutes a "prospect"? Kosuke Fukudome, how is he a prospect and at #30 to boot?? A bunch of those guys are locks on the majors including Ellsbury and Chamberlin.

Hitters - 130 MLB at bats.
Pitchers - 50 MLB innings

There is also a limit on amount of time spent on the 25 man roster even if you don't meet those requirements, but that number escapes me currently.

podgejeff_
02-26-2008, 02:12 PM
I'd be curious to see how many names the Reds have on that list compared to other teams.

I'd figure it out myself but I'm at work.

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 03:15 PM
I'd be curious to see how many names the Reds have on that list compared to other teams.

I'd figure it out myself but I'm at work.

Third most with 5.

The Rays and Red Sox have 7.

GoReds
02-26-2008, 03:28 PM
Within our division:

Reds(5): 1-Bruce, 9-Bailey, 34-Cueto, 44-Votto, 100-Stubbs
Cubs(4): 30-Fukudome, 47-Soto, 75-Colvin, 82-Gallagher
Cardinals(3): 5-Rasmus, 85-Anderson, 97-Perez
Pirates(3): 14-McCutchen, 61-Walker, 89-Pearce
Brewers(2): 23-LaPorta, 72-Parra
Astros(1): 53-Towles

New Fever
02-26-2008, 04:24 PM
Just Missed: 4 people did their Top 150 list and then they combined them to make the Top 100.

Mesaraco got the most votes of any of the Reds with 3. Maloney got a Top 100 vote. Francisco and Frazier each got one vote .

New Fever
02-26-2008, 04:31 PM
Votto seems to to get the most random rankings from people. Some people put him around the top 20 some people put him out of the top 50 and then other put him some where in between. I wonder if its just because he plays 1b or if they just kinda draw names out of hats once they get past the 1st tier prospects


With BA's list, they have four guys doing the Top 100. So Votto is always going to end up around 40 for them because John Manuel doesn't like him as much as everyone else. He has always stated this and fact he said it again in his chat today.

Bip Roberts
02-26-2008, 04:42 PM
With BA's list, they have four guys doing the Top 100. So Votto is always going to end up around 40 for them because John Manuel doesn't like him as much as everyone else. He has always stated this and fact he said it again in his chat today.

Alright thanks. I just seems across rankings our other guys are normally ranked pretty much the same but Votto is all over the place.

Superdude
02-26-2008, 05:46 PM
15 JAKE
McGEE LHP, RAYS
346: Strikeouts the last two years, third in the minors behind Matt Maloney (357) and Gio Gonzalez (351).

SMcGavin
02-26-2008, 06:59 PM
Great stat Superdude. If Maloney has more Ks than IP AGAIN this year (for the third straight year), do people start taking him seriously as a prospect?

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 07:13 PM
Great stat Superdude. If Maloney has more Ks than IP AGAIN this year (for the third straight year), do people start taking him seriously as a prospect?

In AAA, yes. I will say that it would surprise me if he did that though. He is a solid prospect, but it would surprise me quite a bit if he struck out over 8/9ip in AAA next year.

SMcGavin
02-26-2008, 07:20 PM
In AAA, yes. I will say that it would surprise me if he did that though. He is a solid prospect, but it would surprise me quite a bit if he struck out over 8/9ip in AAA next year.

I'm not really expecting 9+ either, but I wouldn't be surprised at all by 7 or 8. That'd put him on par with what Bailey did there last year. I know Maloney doesn't have Homer's stuff but I think he's a lot better prospect than people give him credit for.

GoReds33
02-26-2008, 07:20 PM
Five of the top 100 prospects is great! It's even greater that four are in the top level of the minors, or already on our Major League club. I didn't expect Stubbs in the top 100 though.

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 07:45 PM
Five of the top 100 prospects is great! It's even greater that four are in the top level of the minors, or already on our Major League club. I didn't expect Stubbs in the top 100 though.

I did. I figured him to be somewhere between 85-100. He has everything they want in a prospect. He has all the tools and he has shown the ability to perform (even if its just in the most recent 250 at bats).

Bip Roberts
02-26-2008, 07:57 PM
I like a lot that even while his BA was low compared to his college numbers his OBP didnt seem to suffer all that much from the drop

Superdude
02-26-2008, 08:29 PM
Maloney didn't have any trouble missing bats his first time through aaa. And even though that was a small sample, his 12.54k/9 at Chattanooga seem to back up that performance. I'm not saying he's aaron harang #2, but you make it sound as if maloney has the worst arm in baseball.

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 08:37 PM
Maloney didn't have any trouble missing bats his first time through aaa. And even though that was a small sample, his 12.54k/9 at Chattanooga seem to back up that performance. I'm not saying he's aaron harang #2, but you make it sound as if maloney has the worst arm in baseball.

No, I just think there is something to be said about new players never seeing your stuff before at advanced levels. They will catch up to you somewhat.

OnBaseMachine
02-26-2008, 08:41 PM
Not bad, though I would put in the top 25, Votto around 30-35 and Matt Maloney would be in my top 100. With his performance and improving stuff, he's definitely a top 100 guy IMO.

OnBaseMachine
02-26-2008, 08:51 PM
I liked this question:

Q: Richard Head from Altoona, PA asks:
Is Ian Snell an accurate comparison for Johnny Cueto?

A: John Manuel: Maybe but you know, Snell was never ranked this high, never made a Top 100. Sounds like Cueto's breaking stuff is better but I think you're right and that Snell doesn't get enough credit.

SMcGavin
02-26-2008, 10:08 PM
No, I just think there is something to be said about new players never seeing your stuff before at advanced levels. They will catch up to you somewhat.

Maybe so. But Maloney spent twice as long at AA Reading as Bailey or Cueto have at any stop in the upper minors. In fact neither Bailey or Cueto has ever thrown more innings in one league than the 125 innings Maloney threw at Reading. So there might be some truth in the "hitters will catch up eventually" mentality but if you're gonna use it on Maloney, it applies even more to Cueto and Bailey.

GoReds33
02-26-2008, 10:14 PM
I did. I figured him to be somewhere between 85-100. He has everything they want in a prospect. He has all the tools and he has shown the ability to perform (even if its just in the most recent 250 at bats).Yeah, but he's been a low contact hitter since college. I don't know that choking up would make that big of a difference.

By the way, doesn't this make you wonder why he didn't try choking up before the middle of last year? I think that would have been one of the first things I would try.

dougdirt
02-26-2008, 10:45 PM
Yeah, but he's been a low contact hitter since college. I don't know that choking up would make that big of a difference.

By the way, doesn't this make you wonder why he didn't try choking up before the middle of last year? I think that would have been one of the first things I would try.

Well in college the guy was hitting for a great average, so it probably didn't cross his mind that he wasn't making contact as often as others may have liked.

I don't know if choking up was as much the thing as it was getting out of the leadoff spot. I have nothing to back that up, but when you have a guy that has a propensity for striking out, having him take pitches as a leadoff hitter isn't the best situation to put someone like that in. The choking up and moving out of the #1 spot in the lineup were pretty much coinciding with each other, so its not really there to take if either or could have something to do with it or not.

GoReds33
02-26-2008, 10:56 PM
Well in college the guy was hitting for a great average, so it probably didn't cross his mind that he wasn't making contact as often as others may have liked.

I don't know if choking up was as much the thing as it was getting out of the leadoff spot. I have nothing to back that up, but when you have a guy that has a propensity for striking out, having him take pitches as a leadoff hitter isn't the best situation to put someone like that in. The choking up and moving out of the #1 spot in the lineup were pretty much coinciding with each other, so its not really there to take if either or could have something to do with it or not.Was that around where he started hitting well too? If so, it could be that, or choking up, or just less pressure since he's been in the league awhile. Either way, it's obviously somethings helping. Let's hope he keeps it up, and keeps moving up the list.

DntKnw
02-26-2008, 11:22 PM
Looking at the Top 100 from the past 10 years, it's looking as good as it ever has for the Reds. (Look at 2000-2003 - it looks like Bowden was on the team making up the list.)

2008 - Bruce #1; Bailey #9; Cueto #34; Votto #44; Stubbs #100
2007 - Bailey #5; Bruce #14; Votto #43; Stubbs 88
2006 - Bailey #38; Bruce #76
2005 - Bailey #48; Encarnacion #56; Gardner #93
2004 - Wagner #46
2003 - Basham #69; Gruler #77; Pena #87
2002 - Kearns #11; Howington #25; Pena #65;
2001 - Henson #14; Kearns #24; Dunn #33; Sardinha #74; Espinosa #90
2000 - Dawkins #21; Henson #24; Yarnell #55; Dunn #56; Bell #59; Melian #72
1999 - Bell #35; Kearns #76; Williamson #97

camisadelgolf
02-27-2008, 02:29 AM
Well in college the guy was hitting for a great average, so it probably didn't cross his mind that he wasn't making contact as often as others may have liked.

I don't know if choking up was as much the thing as it was getting out of the leadoff spot. I have nothing to back that up, but when you have a guy that has a propensity for striking out, having him take pitches as a leadoff hitter isn't the best situation to put someone like that in. The choking up and moving out of the #1 spot in the lineup were pretty much coinciding with each other, so its not really there to take if either or could have something to do with it or not.

I think the idea all along was that Drew Stubbs should go to the top of the lineup and work on taking pitches and hitting with two-strikes because A.) he would ideally be used as a leadoff hitter, B.) he would get more at-bats, and C.) the Reds want him to have more practice with hitting with two strikes.

As a leadoff hitter, he walked 57 times in 384 at-bats. As a #3 hitter, he walked only nine times in 62 at-bats. As a #5 starter, where his OPS was near 1.000, he walked merely once in 50 at-bats.

I think the Reds are taking kind of a Dan O'Brien approach with Stubbs, but instead of applying it to the entire organization, it's being applied only to the players who need it most.

BRM
02-27-2008, 01:54 PM
**nevermind**

dougdirt
02-27-2008, 03:01 PM
Fay has the organizational breakdown on his blog.

Wonder how Baseball America feels about him handing out subscriber content? Sure, you could have gone through and counted that up, but he copied and pasted that from a subscriber page.

BRM
02-27-2008, 04:19 PM
Wonder how Baseball America feels about him handing out subscriber content? Sure, you could have gone through and counted that up, but he copied and pasted that from a subscriber page.

I didn't know that. Should I delete my post?

dougdirt
02-27-2008, 05:26 PM
I didn't know that. Should I delete my post?

Well, like I said, you could have counted them up yourself and it would be fine.... but the way he has it posted is the exact way its posted on their site.

edabbs44
02-27-2008, 10:30 PM
Well, like I said, you could have counted them up yourself and it would be fine.... but the way he has it posted is the exact way its posted on their site.

Not really. Two things:

1) It is different from the site. Similar, but the positional breakdown isn't in the subscriber content.

2) It looks like Fay cut and pasted a press release from BA. Check out the "Durham, NC" at the beginning and the fact that his post gives a link to "our" histroical top 100s.