PDA

View Full Version : Thoughts on this trade?



NorrisHopper30
02-26-2008, 11:53 PM
H2H league stats are W, K, ERA, WHIP, S, AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB

I am giving up:
Chris Young (SD) SP
Magglio Ordonez (Det) OF
Howie Kendrick (LAA) 2B

I am getting:
Matt Kemp (LAD) OF
BJ Upton (TB) 2B, OF
James Shields (TB) SP

mlbfan30
02-27-2008, 12:35 AM
Easy yes... you sell high on Maglio and Young. But you might want to reconsider if your other hitters have low BA and RBI.

Stephenk29
02-27-2008, 12:17 PM
Not a bad trade at all. I'm a big Shields fan though so I could be biased. I think he'll have a pretty darn good year regardless. Kemp's production could be low since he's still young. Kinda depends on how deep you are elsewhere obviously.

TeamSelig
02-27-2008, 01:18 PM
I like it too. Is Kemp going to start this season? On their depth chart he is set to start, but I wonder if Pierre will start instead? Hopefully you have OF insurance.

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 01:55 PM
Easy yes... you sell high on Maglio and Young. But you might want to reconsider if your other hitters have low BA and RBI.

BA is way above average(more than half of my lineup is > 300, RBIs are good enough.

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 01:56 PM
I like it too. Is Kemp going to start this season? On their depth chart he is set to start, but I wonder if Pierre will start instead? Hopefully you have OF insurance.

My current OF is

Crawford
Soriano
Rios
Kemp
Upton (starting 2b)

Stephenk29
02-27-2008, 02:28 PM
pretty solid start of a team I'd say

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 03:48 PM
pretty solid start of a team I'd say

Thanks.

I do have one more question..i'll just post my roster because it'll help others answer the question

C- Saltalamacchia
1B - Loney
2B - Upton
3B - Encarnacion
SS - Jeter
OF - Rios
OF - Soriano
OF - Crawford
Util - Mark Reynolds
Util - Kemp

Should I trade Jeter for a power bench/util player. The only reason I bring this up is because Khalil Greene is on the free agency. I said earlier my team is average on RBIs, but i've changed my mind and i'd like to get a big bat hitter. Thoughts?

mlbfan30
02-27-2008, 07:37 PM
Now that trade looks bad. Greene with Magglio/Kendrick might have been a better combo since you have plenty of steals. I really don't like this team at all, unless it's a longterm keeper league. You have a potential for a very low BA, especially if you get Greene. Loney, Upton, and Kemp had very high BABIPs last year and you cannot expect anything over .300, and maybe .290 at the highest. You are going to win SB in this lineup. It might be worth it to deal Crawford for a power top OF bat and keep Jeter. This way you won't take a bigger hit with AVG. You get a lot more HR and RBI. You also deal from a position of strength in SB. in H2H, steals aren't as important because anyone could have a lucky week. Power guys will generally contribute more consistently.

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 08:07 PM
Now that trade looks bad. Greene with Magglio/Kendrick might have been a better combo since you have plenty of steals. I really don't like this team at all, unless it's a longterm keeper league. You have a potential for a very low BA, especially if you get Greene. Loney, Upton, and Kemp had very high BABIPs last year and you cannot expect anything over .300, and maybe .290 at the highest. You are going to win SB in this lineup. It might be worth it to deal Crawford for a power top OF bat and keep Jeter. This way you won't take a bigger hit with AVG. You get a lot more HR and RBI. You also deal from a position of strength in SB. in H2H, steals aren't as important because anyone could have a lucky week. Power guys will generally contribute more consistently.

Using 2007 statistics, my average is tops or close to it in the league. My strengths are obviously Avg, Runs and SB.

mlbfan30
02-27-2008, 10:48 PM
Your stength is Runs and SB. There are more than 2007 numbers when it comes to AVG. AVG has a large luck factor and can fluctuate greatly from year to year. BABIP gives a general idea whether or not a player got lucky. AVG's always need to be regressed to the mean for predictions. Jeter should be solid. But some others are very risky. You Cannot rely on a luck induced AVG from the previous year. Fantasy predictions HAVE to be conservative.

BABIP - Player
.393 - Upton
.411 - Kemp
.378 - Reynalds
.350 - Loney
.374 - Crawford

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.

The average BABIP is around .300. Some players can sustain high BABIPs like Ichiro or Jeter or low BABIPs like anduw Jones. But in most cases you need to regress data to roughly .300.

You are setting yourself up for a huge dissapointment if you bank on AVG. It is a big mistake. Your team is probably fine, but replacing Jeter with Greene is going to absolutly kill any chance in AVG.

The best option is to trade Crawford for a power bat. Crawford fits your strengths in Runs/SB and you can afford to trade them since you NEED power/RBI. The AVG change will be a minor hit at best and will most like be negligible. Trust me on this.

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 11:20 PM
Your stength is Runs and SB. There are more than 2007 numbers when it comes to AVG. AVG has a large luck factor and can fluctuate greatly from year to year. BABIP gives a general idea whether or not a player got lucky. AVG's always need to be regressed to the mean for predictions. Jeter should be solid. But some others are very risky. You Cannot rely on a luck induced AVG from the previous year. Fantasy predictions HAVE to be conservative.

BABIP - Player
.393 - Upton
.411 - Kemp
.378 - Reynalds
.350 - Loney
.374 - Crawford

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF) This is similar to DER, but from the batter's perspective.

The average BABIP is around .300. Some players can sustain high BABIPs like Ichiro or Jeter or low BABIPs like anduw Jones. But in most cases you need to regress data to roughly .300.

You are setting yourself up for a huge dissapointment if you bank on AVG. It is a big mistake. Your team is probably fine, but replacing Jeter with Greene is going to absolutly kill any chance in AVG.

The best option is to trade Crawford for a power bat. Crawford fits your strengths in Runs/SB and you can afford to trade them since you NEED power/RBI. The AVG change will be a minor hit at best and will most like be negligible. Trust me on this.
Anyone but Crawford, he's my favorite player in MLB :cool:.

Thanks for the advice, i'll definitely consider.

mlbfan30
02-27-2008, 11:27 PM
You need to let all the reds/player bias go when dealing in fantasy baseball. I've draft my least favorite player in baseball, Sosa, many times.

Remember, the reason why I say Crawford is because he has the most trade value and will give you the best power guy. You don't have a single predictive 25 HR guy except Soriano, and all those guys are mostly top of the order type. Carl is very predictive by now, so you won't risk trading a future breakout player at a low value.

NorrisHopper30
02-27-2008, 11:32 PM
You need to let all the reds/player bias go when dealing in fantasy baseball. I've draft my least favorite player in baseball, Sosa, many times.

Remember, the reason why I say Crawford is because he has the most trade value and will give you the best power guy. You don't have a single predictive 25 HR guy except Soriano, and all those guys are mostly top of the order type. Carl is very predictive by now, so you won't risk trading a future breakout player at a low value.

I'm hoping Rios and Upton both go 30+ and Edwin maybe 25. Still won't be much of a HR team. I've been shopping Jeter and I might pick up a Jermaine Dye type or Andruw Jones. Might take the risk on Andruw while his stock is low.

mlbfan30
02-28-2008, 12:03 AM
And again, by dropping a consistent high average, Jeter, for a low average, Jones or Green or whoever, you are setting yourself up for a big surprise. Jones is especially worrisome.

The reason is because he get's on massive hot and cold steaks. But his colds streaks far outweight the hot ones and will really hurt the team in H2H.

Jeter is the wrong choice to trade. I have drafted Jeter maybe only once in 50+ drafts, but you can't undervalue his talents.

Again, Rios/Upton have career high 24HRs. EE's high is 16HR. When projecting future performance in fantasy, it is always better to be on the safe side. You project 25 HR for Rios/Uption and 15 for EE at the very best when making the roster.

You say you want to use 2007 AVG for 2008 AVG, but then use higher than 2007 HR for 2008 HR. This is to everyone that plays. When you project young or sleepers or stars or whoever, you always project conservative with the hope of breakout, but not depending on breakout. You regress numbers that are high like Fielders 50+ HRs, or Magglio's .350 BA. If you can create and project a winning team with conservative values, that will almost always create a winner in the league.

mlbfan30
03-01-2008, 02:17 AM
Here's a link about Crawford.... something to think about..........

http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/mlb/news;_ylt=As3w1gSSkZ_QHsA9Ig3xD9lNC5kB?slug=ab-posprimer08-of

Topcat
03-08-2008, 05:24 AM
H2H league stats are W, K, ERA, WHIP, S, AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB

I am giving up:
Chris Young (SD) SP
Magglio Ordonez (Det) OF
Howie Kendrick (LAA) 2B

I am getting:
Matt Kemp (LAD) OF
BJ Upton (TB) 2B, OF
James Shields (TB) SP

Very good trade on a long term basis for sure. Great future promise and long term future asset acquisition.