PDA

View Full Version : Reds minors ranked no.3 per Baseball America



icehole3
02-27-2008, 06:58 AM
I heard Doc mention it on Sports talk, can anyone comfirm this?

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Happy/HappyWave.gif

dougdirt
02-27-2008, 12:28 PM
Yeah, by Baseball America. I think they are #2 just due to the amount of prospects they have in the upper minors when compared to the Red Sox.

Benihana
02-27-2008, 04:10 PM
'Tis a pretty good turnaround from a couple of years ago. Kudos to the front office.

edabbs44
03-02-2008, 02:46 PM
Yeah, by Baseball America. I think they are #2 just due to the amount of prospects they have in the upper minors when compared to the Red Sox.

It is possible that they could fall to the bottom after this year.

Unless a few Reds prospects take huge leaps, I think they'll be in the bottom 5-10 after the big 4 graduate in '08.

OnBaseMachine
03-02-2008, 03:24 PM
It is possible that they could fall to the bottom after this year.

Unless a few Reds prospects take huge leaps, I think they'll be in the bottom 5-10 after the big 4 graduate in '08.

They are going to fall no doubt, but in the bottom 5-10? I disagree with that. There are still some nice looking prospects behind Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Roenicke, and Votto. The 2007 draft is looking like a nice one which should keep the system ranked in the top 15 IMO. Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Kyle Lotzkar, Nefi Soto, Scott Carroll, and Brandon Waring all look like good prospects. Add in the possible breakout of Drew Stubbs and rebound of Travis Wood, Josh Ravin, and Chris Valaika in addition to guys like Carlos Fisher, Sam lecure, Danny Dorn, Juan Francisco, Pedro Viola, Justin Reed, and Sean Watson. Add in the 7th overall pick which should produce another high level talent and now we're reading that the Reds have signed a top talent out of the DR. I think there is still enough talent for the Reds to stay in the top 15 after the fab four graduate.

edabbs44
03-02-2008, 03:31 PM
They are going to fall no doubt, but in the bottom 5-10? I disagree with that. There are still some nice looking prospects behind Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Maloney, Roenicke, and Votto. The 2007 draft is looking like a nice one which should keep the system ranked in the top 15 IMO. Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Kyle Lotzkar, Nefi Soto, Scott Carroll, and Brandon Waring all look like good prospects. Add in the possible breakout of Drew Stubbs and rebound of Travis Wood, Josh Ravin, and Chris Valaika in addition to guys like Carlos Fisher, Sam lecure, Danny Dorn, Juan Francisco, Pedro Viola, Justin Reed, and Sean Watson. Add in the 7th overall pick which should produce another high level talent and now we're reading that the Reds have signed a top talent out of the DR. I think there is still enough talent for the Reds to stay in the top 15 after the fab four graduate.

I would venture to guess that every team has the same type of prospects that you named right there. The key is for a few of those to take a big leap.

21 teams have 3 or more names on the top 100 this year. All things being equal (and using estimate numbers), this team would need to have 3-4 names in the top 100 with 1-2 being upper half guys to be in the top 15.

You really couldn't see them ranked 25th or somewhere in that area?

OnBaseMachine
03-02-2008, 03:38 PM
I would venture to guess that every team has the same type of prospects that you named right there. The key is for a few of those to take a big leap.

21 teams have 3 or more names on the top 100 this year. All things being equal (and using estimate numbers), this team would need to have 3-4 names in the top 100 with 1-2 being upper half guys to be in the top 15.

You really couldn't see them ranked 25th or somewhere in that area?

Drew Stubbs will be ranked in the top 50 if he carries over his second half success into this season. Todd Frazier received a vote or two for the top 100 from BA IIRC. Mesoraco and Lotzkar could easily jump into the top 100. BA loves prospects like those two. The Reds 7th overall selection will most likely be in the top 100 unless he struggles. Nefi Soto is another guy who could crack the top 100 with a big year. I just don't see them falling to 25. I think 16 or 17 is worse case scenario.

mth123
03-02-2008, 03:42 PM
If Bailey stays in AAA this year as he should, the Reds will probably graduate Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Maloney (maybe lesser guys like Dickerson, McBeth and Janish) off the list. 2009 Top 10??

1. Bailey (if handled right he should still qualify)
2. Frazier
3. Lotzcar
4. Roenicke (assuming the Reds won't give him a chance though they should)
5. Number 7 Pick Guy
6. Rosales
7. Stubbs
8. Soto
9. Mesoraco
10. Fisher, Wood, Valaika, Lecure, Thompson, Viola, Pelland, Dorn, Watson, etc?

Still could be a pretty decent list compared to other organizations.

mth123
03-02-2008, 03:47 PM
Drew Stubbs will be ranked in the top 50 if he carries over his second half success into this season. Todd Frazier received a vote or two for the top 100 from BA IIRC. Mesoraco and Lotzkar could easily jump into the top 100. BA loves prospects like those two. The Reds 7th overall selection will most likely be in the top 100 unless he struggles. Nefi Soto is another guy who could crack the top 100 with a big year. I just don't see them falling to 25. I think 16 or 17 is worse case scenario.

I agree that Stubbs will shoot up if he hits like the second half of 2007. He already has the speed, defense and plate discipline. If he starts making hard contact with some improved frequency, he'll be moving way up. OTOH, another year of struggling puts him in Chris Dickerson territory. Stubbs could very well be the key to whether the Reds are still considered a top group in 2009.

edabbs44
03-02-2008, 03:51 PM
If Bailey stays in AAA this year as he should, the Reds will probably graduate Bruce, Votto, Cueto, and Maloney (maybe lesser guys like Dickerson, McBeth and Janish) off the list. 2009 Top 10??

1. Bailey (if handled right he should still qualify)
2. Frazier
3. Lotzcar
4. Roenicke (assuming the Reds won't give him a chance though they should)
5. Number 7 Pick Guy
6. Rosales
7. Stubbs
8. Soto
9. Mesoraco
10. Fisher, Wood, Valaika, Lecure, Thompson, Viola, Pelland, Dorn, Watson, etc?

Still could be a pretty decent list compared to other organizations.

Bailey and Roenicke could easily graduate this year.

Take those two off this list and add a top 7 DP who isn't a top, top name and that is easily bottom 10.

mth123
03-02-2008, 04:20 PM
Bailey and Roenicke could easily graduate this year.

Take those two off this list and add a top 7 DP who isn't a top, top name and that is easily bottom 10.

You could be right. I hope you are about Roenicke. I'd start the season with him in the Reds pen. I hope Bailey stays in AAA.

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 08:55 PM
I am with OBM on this one. Unless there are significant injuries/complete lack of performance, the Reds likely won't fall out of the top 15 with the upcoming graduations. The Reds had 4 players outside of the top 4 garner votes as top 150 prospects. Even with minimal improvement from those guys the Reds could get another 3 or 4 guys into the top 100 by the end of next year with Stubbs, Mesoraco, Francisco, Frazier, or Lotzkar and not including the guy who we will take at #7 overall. Danny Dorn won't garner the attention he deserves from BA, but he will supply that 'depth' criteria that they also look at. They will drop, but it won't be nearly as bad as you are thinking unless something really unforeseen happens to several guys edabbs.

edabbs44
03-02-2008, 09:39 PM
I am with OBM on this one. Unless there are significant injuries/complete lack of performance, the Reds likely won't fall out of the top 15 with the upcoming graduations. The Reds had 4 players outside of the top 4 garner votes as top 150 prospects. Even with minimal improvement from those guys the Reds could get another 3 or 4 guys into the top 100 by the end of next year with Stubbs, Mesoraco, Francisco, Frazier, or Lotzkar and not including the guy who we will take at #7 overall. Danny Dorn won't garner the attention he deserves from BA, but he will supply that 'depth' criteria that they also look at. They will drop, but it won't be nearly as bad as you are thinking unless something really unforeseen happens to several guys edabbs.

Hopefully you are right. But it isn't as if these 4 were knocking on the door. 3 of them received one vote as a top 150 player. The other was Mesoraco, whose vote status was based purely on his HS performance and projection. Not professional performance.

These guys could easily take steps forward. Could easily takes lateral or backwards steps as well. Personally I'm not as high on those guys as some are, which would lead to my belief of the status of the system after this year.

I have been less than impressed with the first 2 drafts of this regime. Hopefully this year will be different. But I said the same thing last year.

camisadelgolf
03-03-2008, 08:28 AM
Hopefully you are right. But it isn't as if these 4 were knocking on the door. 3 of them received one vote as a top 150 player. The other was Mesoraco, whose vote status was based purely on his HS performance and projection. Not professional performance.

These guys could easily take steps forward. Could easily takes lateral or backwards steps as well. Personally I'm not as high on those guys as some are, which would lead to my belief of the status of the system after this year.

I have been less than impressed with the first 2 drafts of this regime. Hopefully this year will be different. But I said the same thing last year.

If you've been less than impressed with the current regime's drafts, what did you think of the two previous regimes?

TOBTTReds
03-03-2008, 03:13 PM
You could be right. I hope you are about Roenicke. I'd start the season with him in the Reds pen. I hope Bailey stays in AAA.

Both Homer and Roenicke will likely get plenty of time in Cincy. They won't be able to hold him down.

edabbs44
03-03-2008, 03:20 PM
If you've been less than impressed with the current regime's drafts, what did you think of the two previous regimes?

I don't think that anyone in '06-'07 will be able to touch Bailey and Bruce. The rest of '04-'05 is lackluster, but no one is really wowing me from the last two years either.

Many like to trumpet guys like Lotzkar, Roenicke and others from 2006-07 as wins, which is fine. But they could easily turn out to be the new Szymanskis, Rafael Gonzalezes and Philippe Valiquettes of this regime.

But we are talking about this regime. Not sure what the prior regimes have to do with the last 2 drafts.

dougdirt
03-03-2008, 03:28 PM
I don't think that anyone in '06-'07 will be able to touch Bailey and Bruce. The rest of '04-'05 is lackluster, but no one is really wowing me from the last two years either.

Many like to trumpet guys like Lotzkar, Roenicke and others from 2006-07 as wins, which is fine. But they could easily turn out to be the new Szymanskis, Rafael Gonzalezes and Philippe Valiquettes of this regime.

But we are talking about this regime. Not sure what the prior regimes have to do with the last 2 drafts.

Firstly, Roenicke had prolonged success in AA. How that somehow could turn out to be Gonzo or Valiquette I am not sure.... since they both played below High A last year. Lotzkar could be closer to that example, although I highly doubt it happens. As for the 2006/2007 draft not having a Bailey/Bruce, well if those are your standards then you are going to be disappointed in almost every teams draft every year because its tough to produce a guy that is going to be a top 10 prospect in baseball with every single draft, its just not going to happen.

edabbs44
03-03-2008, 03:33 PM
Firstly, Roenicke had prolonged success in AA. How that somehow could turn out to be Gonzo or Valiquette I am not sure.... since they both played below High A last year. Lotzkar could be closer to that example, although I highly doubt it happens. As for the 2006/2007 draft not having a Bailey/Bruce, well if those are your standards then you are going to be disappointed in almost every teams draft every year because its tough to produce a guy that is going to be a top 10 prospect in baseball with every single draft, its just not going to happen.

Don't jump to conclusions. I didn't compare the drafts on my own as a way to discount the recent ones. I said that I wasn't enamored with the 2006-07 drafts and then I was asked what I thought of the drafts of the previous regimes.

So I was basically asked to compare them.

gedred69
03-06-2008, 09:13 PM
Danny Dorn. Rookie league season in '06 was too good so he skipped low-A, going to high-A, ending up very strong a AA. That's the same as a 3 level jump in 1 season.

podgejeff_
03-07-2008, 07:58 AM
Danny Dorn. Rookie league season in '06 was too good so he skipped low-A, going to high-A, ending up very strong a AA. That's the same as a 3 level jump in 1 season.

Am I the only person that thinks that Dorn is consistently underrated?

camisadelgolf
03-07-2008, 08:27 AM
Am I the only person that thinks that Dorn is consistently underrated?

He's becoming the Arizona Cardinals of baseball. What I mean is that everyone is so frequently saying that he's underrated and not getting proper recognition that he is quickly becoming overrated. He's good, but in his prime, I think he'll put up numbers similar to Paul O'Neill's in 1990 while playing worse defense.

Superdude
03-07-2008, 01:57 PM
Am I the only person that thinks that Dorn is consistently underrated?

He's got a pretty good overall skill set statistically. I think the biggest knock on him as a prospect is the fact that he's a solid hitter at a slugger's position and wasn't highly touted coming out of college. As long as he keeps proving people wrong though, he should be able to provide some cheap production in the outfield when Griffey and Dunn are gone.

dougdirt
03-07-2008, 02:28 PM
The only problems with Dorn are he doesn't hit lefites (but he absolutely kills righties) and his arm isn't the best.

Underrated.... depends who you are talking about. Baseball America has him as the Reds 28th prospect. That to me is considerably underrated. On the flip side, some on here have him in the top 10, and that to me, is overrated for him.