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OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 11:20 AM
REDS NOTES
Injury creates opening for Janish
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By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Saturday, March 01, 2008

SARASOTA, Fla. Paul Janish is one of those young players who sits in a corner of the clubhouse see no evil, speak no evil and hopes when he gets noticed it is all positive.

So far, so good for the 25-year-old former shortstop for the Dayton Dragons. With Alex Gonzalez bogged under a fractured left knee for at least three weeks, Janish is getting early playing time, and his flashy glove is blinding the eyes of manager Dusty Baker right through his sunglasses.

"I guess that's a plus that good thoughts are in his mind when my name is brought up," Janish said when told of Baker's attention.

Janish's fielding always has been big-league caliber, but many wonder if he'll hit major-league pitching. Baker, though, noted that Janish has worked hard to sharpen his bat work.

"It was a slow year for me last year (.244 at Class AA Chattanooga and .221 at Class AAA Louisville), so I had to change something," he said.

Living in Texas near Adam Dunn and Jay Bruce helps.

"I worked out all winter with them," he said. "We had a pretty strong Reds contingent, and there were about 20 major-leaguers working out at the same place. It is easier to push yourself when you got guys around you.

"Early this spring, (Baker) is letting a lot of younger guys play, so hopefully, I leave a good impression," Janish said. "When it comes time to make decisions during the year, if a couple of guys get banged up, they'll think of me. Realistically, breaking camp with the team is a long shot, but things happen (such as Gonzalez getting hurt)."

Janish doubled Friday, Feb. 29, in the third inning and alertly tagged up and moved to third base on a fly ball to center field, then scored on a sacrifice fly, a heads-up play that caused Baker to make a special effort to congratulate him.

"That's what we teach, taking the extra base when we can," said Baker.

Gonzalez's diagnosis

Gonzalez was diagnosed with a compression fracture of the left knee, is on crutches and will do no baseball activity for three weeks. He will walk with crutches for at least the next week to take pressure off the knee. And he won't play for at least three weeks, then he'll be re-evaluated. Even if he is healed, that's only 10 days from Opening Day, making him a long shot to be in the lineup.

Gonzalez thought it was nothing more than a deep bone bruise, but team physician Dr. Tim Kremchek diagnosed the fracture Friday morning after looking at a bone scan taken Thursday, Feb. 28.

"Just rest," said Gonzalez. "I'll be on crutches for a week to take the pressure off the knee. No surgery. I don't need that. Just rest."

Meanwhile, Baker will look at Jeff Keppinger, Janish, Juan Castro and Adam Rosales during Gonzalez's absence.

Bray recuperating

Bill Bray threw off a mound for the first time this spring Thursday, and Baker sees a change in the left-handed relief pitcher's face.

"They say he is progressing, but I'm hoping he doesn't get too far behind," said Baker. "Other guys are getting a jump on him. He looks better in the face, when he seemed worried. Now he seems happier, which means his arm must feel better and he must be feeling better."

Catcher David Ross missed Friday's game with a tight back, but said he is getting better and expects to play Saturday.

Infielder/outfielder Jerry Gil, who had two hits in the first exhibition and a three-run homer in the second, is out indefinitely with a strained left quadriceps.

Quote of the day

Ken Griffey Jr., noting that Brandon Phillips wasn't in Friday's lineup said kiddingly: "He signed a four-year contract for $27 million and can't play a home game? He ain't old enough to change his own diaper."

Former Reds catcher Eddie Taubensee was in camp Friday and said facetiously: "This is the first year I'm eligible for the Hall of Fame, and I'm laying the groundwork. A friend mentioned it to me, and I said, 'Usually you have to make a few All-Star teams to make the Hall. At least the Reds retired my number (10), even if Sparky Anderson wore it before me."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/03/01/ddn030108redsnotes.html

Cyclone792
03-01-2008, 11:41 AM
I'm the biggest Paul Janish fan around right now. Because if Janish can make the team, then it should hopefully send Juan Castro out to the curb.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 11:44 AM
Baker on Adam Rosales:

The guy to keep an eye on is Rosales. He's made a great early impression at camp.

Rosales, 24, was the Reds' 12th-round pick in the 2005 draft. He hit .286 with 41 doubles, 11 triples, 18 home runs, 79 RBI and 13 steals last year.

"He doesn't look athletic," Baker said. "He just is athletic. He gets the job done big time. The more your around him, the more you like him, the more he grows on you. He's in the right place in right time. He's played well for us."

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/03/dusty-on-ss-lineup.asp

I wonder how good defensively Rosales is at SS? I know he was moved off SS in the minors because of an arm injury but he's over that now.

Highlifeman21
03-01-2008, 12:10 PM
I'm the biggest Paul Janish fan around right now. Because if Janish can make the team, then it should hopefully send Juan Castro out to the curb.

Depending on the severity and duration of Gonzalez's injury, I think Keppinger would give us much more stick than Gonzo or Janish, but Janish is clearly the best defensive SS of the bunch.

This team sorely lacks defense, and I'd almost rather Janish trying to find himself at the plate while playing our best option of SS D, rather than Keppinger needing his bat to keep him in the lineup.

Regardless, I'll root for anyone if it means Juan Castro is no longer a Red.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 12:18 PM
Adam Rosales provides the best power out of all of them. He had 70 extra-base hits in roughly 500 atbats last season between Sarasota and Chattanooga, which was good enough for top ten in the minors for XBHs. Big bat but his defense is still a question mark at this point.

Paul Janish is clearly the best defender of the three but his bat is severely lacking compared to Rosales and Keppinger. He does provide some OBP skills but will he hit well enough to bump that OBP over .340? If he does ten he becomes at asset at SS.

Jeff Keppinger is most likely the favorite to start SS. His bat is very good, he doesn't provide as much power as Rosales but he'll put the ball in play more and provide a better OBP at this point IMO.

MrCinatit
03-01-2008, 12:53 PM
Makes me a bit happy to see Dusty high on some of the younger guys - gives me hope that the talk that he favors vets is a bunch of hooey.

I am rooting a bit for Janish - he's been a bit of a stud supersub on my MVP 2005 franchise - especially when he took over for an injured Gonzalez.

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 01:19 PM
If Janish really is a great glove, then he's got to earn the starting spot. I just don't see any other option. Keppinger in an already lame infield (defensively) would just add to the defensive nightmare.

Joseph
03-01-2008, 01:22 PM
Would you folks feel comfortable with a guy if he could plays high level D but hits 220-230?

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 01:22 PM
If Janish really is a great glove, then he's got to earn the starting spot. I just don't see any other option. Keppinger in an already lame infield (defensively) would just add to the defensive nightmare.

I don't see where the infield defense is horrible. Brandon Phillips is a Gold Glove caliber defensive 2B and Edwin Encarnacion greatly improved last season IMO. His range at 3B is impressive. Votto isn't great but he's improving and could be average over there. Now SS, I'll agree with you there. Kepp's range is below average IMO. I don't mind him over there every now and then but not on a regular basis.

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 02:07 PM
I don't see where the infield defense is horrible.

I said "lame." However, it becomes "horrible" if Gonzalez gets replaced by Keppinger as opposed to Janish.

KronoRed
03-01-2008, 02:08 PM
Would you folks feel comfortable with a guy if he could plays high level D but hits 220-230?

Why not? we've been stuck with the Castro man not playing good D and hitting poorly, why not at least have the D?

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 02:08 PM
Would you folks feel comfortable with a guy if he could plays high level D but hits 220-230?

I'd prefer the good D guy to someone like Keppinger at SS. On this team especially.

WMR
03-01-2008, 02:11 PM
The only "trouble spot" for infield D is SS. 1B is average at least and 3B and 2B are well above average.

Stormy
03-01-2008, 02:12 PM
I don't see where the infield defense is horrible. Brandon Phillips is a Gold Glove caliber defensive 2B and Edwin Encarnacion greatly improved last season IMO. His range at 3B is impressive. Votto isn't great but he's improving and could be average over there. Now SS, I'll agree with you there. Kepp's range is below average IMO. I don't mind him over there every now and then but not on a regular basis.

Agreed. That's my basic assessment of this infield defense, as well. And Keppinger is exactly who I want manning the SS position during times of injury to Gonzo. He played 47 games there last year, is familiar with Phillips, and showed a pretty good understanding for the nuances of the position.

He lacks above average range, and a cannon, but he makes everything in his fielding zone look pretty easy. Let a gloveman get a few starts at SS per week, but otherwise utilize this time of injury to get Keppinger on the field as an everyday player until Gonzo returns.

Stormy
03-01-2008, 02:15 PM
I'd prefer the good D guy to someone like Keppinger at SS. On this team especially.

This team played by far it's best baseball last year with virtually this same infield configuration, and during that span their defense actually showed better than it had during the early parts of the season (i.e. when Gonzo was booting everything in sight, and EdE was still somewhat shakey). It's not an elite infield defense by any stretch, and Keppinger is short-term stopgap rather than long-term solution, but it's certainly serviceable. I'm almost more worried about an outfield that promises to be substandard defensively at every position.

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 02:21 PM
Anyone else getting the feeling that the Gonzalez injury means Joey Votto is heading to AAA?

KronoRed
03-01-2008, 02:26 PM
Anyone else getting the feeling that the Gonzalez injury means Joey Votto is heading to AAA?

The Reds are beyond hope if they do such a foolish thing.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 02:26 PM
Anyone else getting the feeling that the Gonzalez injury means Joey Votto is heading to AAA?

I don't understand. How does the SS getting hurt mean the 1B gets sent down?

pedro
03-01-2008, 02:30 PM
Anyone else getting the feeling that the Gonzalez injury means Joey Votto is heading to AAA?

please explain the logic behind that.

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 02:35 PM
I don't understand. How does the SS getting hurt mean the 1B gets sent down?

Well Gonzo to the DL means that these guys are on the roster no matter what:
Griffey
Dunn
Hopper
Freel
Keppinger
Hatteberg
Phillips
Encarnacion
Ross
Valentin
Castro/Janish (who will be needed to be backup SS)
Andy Phillips (right handed bat for first base)

That leaves one spot. Are they really going to carry three guys who only play first base? Votto doesn't seem to fit into the roster because Hatteberg isn't going to be cut to make room for him.

SteelSD
03-01-2008, 02:41 PM
Well Gonzo to the DL means that these guys are on the roster no matter what:
Griffey
Dunn
Hopper
Freel
Keppinger
Hatteberg
Phillips
Encarnacion
Ross
Valentin
Castro/Janish (who will be needed to be backup SS)
Andy Phillips (right handed bat for first base)

That leaves one spot. Are they really going to carry three guys who only play first base? Votto doesn't seem to fit into the roster because Hatteberg isn't going to be cut to make room for him.

If Gonzalez were healthy, then the "Castro/Janish" slot would be his and nothing else would appear to change at all. Votto's standing has nothing to do with Gonzalez' injury.

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 02:44 PM
If Gonzalez were healthy, then the "Castro/Janish" slot would be his and nothing else would appear to change at all. Votto's standing has nothing to do with Gonzalez' injury.

Andy Phillips likely wouldn't make the roster if Gonzalez were healthy because Kepp would then platoon at first base to get most of his starts while spelling others all over the place the rest of the time. Votto would then be the majority LH platoon partner at first base.

pedro
03-01-2008, 02:45 PM
andy phillips?

really?

I just don't see that happening.

It's much more likely that they slide Keppinger to 1st against LHP or that they just let Votto take the AB's.

And if the Reds do carry a RH bat for 1st base other than Keppinger I'd put my money on Adam Rosales.





Well Gonzo to the DL means that these guys are on the roster no matter what:
Griffey
Dunn
Hopper
Freel
Keppinger
Hatteberg
Phillips
Encarnacion
Ross
Valentin
Castro/Janish (who will be needed to be backup SS)
Andy Phillips (right handed bat for first base)

That leaves one spot. Are they really going to carry three guys who only play first base? Votto doesn't seem to fit into the roster because Hatteberg isn't going to be cut to make room for him.

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 02:47 PM
andy phillips?

really?

I just don't see that happening.

It's much more likely that they slide Keppinger to 1st against or that they just let Votto take the AB's.

And if the Reds do carry a RH bat for 1st base other than Keppinger I'd put my money on Adam Rosales.

Rosales/Phillips, doesn't really matter. Still doesn't leave room for Votto when you have Hatteberg that you aren't going to cut or send to the minors (if he can even be sent).

pedro
03-01-2008, 02:48 PM
Rosales/Phillips, doesn't really matter. Still doesn't leave room for Votto when you have Hatteberg that you aren't going to cut or send to the minors (if he can even be sent).

Votto's not getting sent to AAA. It's just not going to happen IMO.

SteelSD
03-01-2008, 02:53 PM
Andy Phillips likely wouldn't make the roster if Gonzalez were healthy because Kepp would then platoon at first base to get most of his starts while spelling others all over the place the rest of the time. Votto would then be the majority LH platoon partner at first base.

There's no reason for the Reds to take Andy Phillips north, RH bat or not. The most likely scenario with Gonzalez out is that Keppinger would slide over to 1B against tough LH pitchers (if that's the plan) and Castro would play Short. No reason for Votto to be the odd man out regardless.

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 02:53 PM
Votto's not getting sent to AAA. It's just not going to happen IMO.

I wish it wouldn't happen, but yo do know who is managing our team don't you?

pedro
03-01-2008, 03:00 PM
I wish it wouldn't happen, but yo do know who is managing our team don't you?

yeah I do. Do you?

dougdirt
03-01-2008, 03:02 PM
yeah I do. Do you?

Unfortunately.

Maybe I am just over thinking the situation though....

fearofpopvol1
03-01-2008, 03:07 PM
I don't see the Reds sending Votto to AAA and if they do, then it would be one of the bigger blunders in a long time (and they've had plenty of them).

crazybob60
03-01-2008, 03:20 PM
Agreed. That's my basic assessment of this infield defense, as well. And Keppinger is exactly who I want manning the SS position during times of injury to Gonzo. He played 47 games there last year, is familiar with Phillips, and showed a pretty good understanding for the nuances of the position.

He lacks above average range, and a cannon, but he makes everything in his fielding zone look pretty easy. Let a gloveman get a few starts at SS per week, but otherwise utilize this time of injury to get Keppinger on the field as an everyday player until Gonzo returns.

I think I can pretty much agree wholeheartedly with these statements above completely. And if Gonzo starts the season not ready and say on the DL, lets just hope that we can get Janish or Rosales in there as the backup and hopefully have Castro either DL'ed or DFA'ed. Castro, Stanton, and Mercker and just three guys that I hope are not on the 25 man roster once the season starts. If they start out the season on the DL I really don't have that big of a problem with that, let's just hope they are moved before they come off of that.

crazybob60
03-01-2008, 03:24 PM
Former Reds catcher Eddie Taubensee was in camp Friday and said facetiously: "This is the first year I'm eligible for the Hall of Fame, and I'm laying the groundwork. A friend mentioned it to me, and I said, 'Usually you have to make a few All-Star teams to make the Hall. At least the Reds retired my number (10), even if Sparky Anderson wore it before me."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/03/01/ddn030108redsnotes.html

Does anybody happen to know if Eddie Taubensee will be making any more appearance down at Spring Training with the Reds or any of the other clubs (ya know say the Indians or Astros)? I may be heading down there in a few weeks and wouldn't mind meeting Easy Ed. Anybody?

Jpup
03-01-2008, 04:58 PM
I don't see where the infield defense is horrible. Brandon Phillips is a Gold Glove caliber defensive 2B and Edwin Encarnacion greatly improved last season IMO. His range at 3B is impressive. Votto isn't great but he's improving and could be average over there. Now SS, I'll agree with you there. Kepp's range is below average IMO. I don't mind him over there every now and then but not on a regular basis.

it's just not the Cards Defense. Now that is a good one. ;)

Highlifeman21
03-01-2008, 05:15 PM
andy phillips?

really?
I just don't see that happening.

It's much more likely that they slide Keppinger to 1st against LHP or that they just let Votto take the AB's.

And if the Reds do carry a RH bat for 1st base other than Keppinger I'd put my money on Adam Rosales.

I was just about to type the same questions.

Andy Phillips has as much chance of making the team going North as anyone on this board.

pedro
03-01-2008, 05:38 PM
I was just about to type the same questions.

Andy Phillips has as much chance of making the team going North as anyone on this board.

As candidates go for RH platoon partners he's pretty poorly equipped. His three year split OPS against LHP is in the .550 range. Hell, you could make a pretty good argument that Juan Castro at 1st makes more sense than Andy Phillips.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 05:46 PM
Just throwing this name out there - Ben Zobrist. Am I the only one who would like to see the Reds attempt to acquire him from the Rays? He's struggled in his 280 career MLB atbats but his minor league numbers are awesome: .316/.428/.453 with 234 walks to 176 strikeouts in 1251 atbats. He'll turn 27 in May so he's no spring chicken but I would still take a chance on him and see if he can start translating those minor league numbers into the majors. If he could be had for, say, Richie Gardner or Todd Coffey I would do it.

kheidg-
03-01-2008, 05:53 PM
I was just about to type the same questions.

Andy Phillips has as much chance of making the team going North as anyone on this board.

I agree. Phillips making the team would take an injury to either Votto or Hatte.

Votto won't be starting the season in AAA.

IslandRed
03-01-2008, 07:18 PM
There's no reason for the Reds to take Andy Phillips north, RH bat or not. The most likely scenario with Gonzalez out is that Keppinger would slide over to 1B against tough LH pitchers (if that's the plan) and Castro would play Short. No reason for Votto to be the odd man out regardless.

Agreed. I remember the original comment about Keppinger at first base, but I never read it to mean that Keppinger was going to be half of a straight platoon, just that he could play first against some tough lefties. Furthermore, I don't think he plays first base at all when and if he's the de facto starting shortstop.

*BaseClogger*
03-01-2008, 07:22 PM
Just throwing this name out there - Ben Zobrist. Am I the only one who would like to see the Reds attempt to acquire him from the Rays? He's struggled in his 280 career MLB atbats but his minor league numbers are awesome: .316/.428/.453 with 234 walks to 176 strikeouts in 1251 atbats. He'll turn 27 in May so he's no spring chicken but I would still take a chance on him and see if he can start translating those minor league numbers into the majors. If he could be had for, say, Richie Gardner or Todd Coffey I would do it.

I like this idea. Zobrist has the rep of being a slick fielder. He would certainly be better than Juan Castro/Paul Janish, and there is nothing wrong with looking for a replacement outside of the organization...

*BaseClogger*
03-01-2008, 07:23 PM
I said "lame." However, it becomes "horrible" if Gonzalez gets replaced by Keppinger as opposed to Janish.

Why? Can you please explain your reasoning for thinking this?

redsmetz
03-01-2008, 07:25 PM
Unfortunately.

Maybe I am just over thinking the situation though....

Doug, honestly I think you are and I'm surprised you buy into Baker allegedly disdaining youth. I just don't see Votto going back down. I think it's more likely that Hatteberg gets moved during spring than it does Votto going down. He's here to stay, IMO.

reds44
03-01-2008, 08:19 PM
Rosales/Phillips, doesn't really matter. Still doesn't leave room for Votto when you have Hatteberg that you aren't going to cut or send to the minors (if he can even be sent).
There is talk of Rosales having a chance of winning the job as well, and he can play first base. Keppinger or Rosales, whoever isn't starting at SS is the RH platoon man at first base.

Votto is going to make the team. Phillips and Janish have very little shot, especially Phillips.

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 08:26 PM
Why? Can you please explain your reasoning for thinking this?

Because EdE, while improved, is pretty uninstinctual over there at third, Votto's a fair sized question mark at first, Phillips is good at second, and Ross and Javy are very weak at catcher.

Add a pretty unrangy Keppinger to the mix and it's a recipe for making a lame defense even worse.

*BaseClogger*
03-01-2008, 08:54 PM
Because EdE, while improved, is pretty uninstinctual over there at third, Votto's a fair sized question mark at first, Phillips is good at second, and Ross and Javy are very weak at catcher.

Add a pretty unrangy Keppinger to the mix and it's a recipe for making a lame defense even worse.

I meant specifically why you think Keppinger is so much worse than Gonzalez...

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 08:59 PM
I meant specifically why you think Keppinger is so much worse than Gonzalez...

He's less rangy, with poorer instincts, IMO.

WMR
03-01-2008, 09:01 PM
EdE has great instincts, IMO. He is incredibly rangy and has an excellent nose for getting his leather on balls that I have no expectation of him making plays on.

deltachi8
03-01-2008, 09:10 PM
FCB- while I disagree with your opinion on Edwin, I think you are spot on regarding the SS position.

IF this team is getting production out of Phillips, Votto, Dunn and Griffey then I woul dhave no problem at all starting Janish at ss for his glove no matter what he hits.

Falls City Beer
03-01-2008, 09:22 PM
EdE has great instincts, IMO. He is incredibly rangy and has an excellent nose for getting his leather on balls that I have no expectation of him making plays on.

Edwin has great physical tools, and yes, he has very good range.

But his instincts aren't really there. You can almost see him thinking himself through each play.

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 09:25 PM
Baker surveying field of stand-ins for Gonzalez
Listen to this article or download audio file.Click-2-Listen

By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Saturday, March 01, 2008

SARASOTA, Fla. Dusty Baker realizes it is unrealistic to expect shortstop Alex Gonzalez to recover from a compressed fracture of the left knee in time for Opening Day, other than to take a bow during pregame pomp and circumstance at Great American Ball Park.

And he is realistic enough to know it is a sucker punch to the solar plexus for the Cincinnati Reds.

"That's a pretty good setback right there, but you have to go on," said Baker.

So the possible stand-ins are lined up: Jeff Keppinger (who filled in ably for Gonzalez several times last season), Juan Castro, Paul Janish and a spring surprise, Adam Rosales.

"We have four or five guys in the same boat and it comes down to who we think plays the best and who can help us the most. That will be the guy who takes his place," said Baker.

Baker insists nobody is at the front of the pack.

"I have to see 'em all play, not only offensively, but shortstop is such an import defensive spot," said Baker. "It's a big, big part of your game and I was counting on Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips as a great double play combination.

"And offensively, he was capable of 20-plus home runs and driving in some big runs," Baker added.

Because Phillips signed as a shortstop and there was talk of moving him there when Jerry Narron was manager, Baker was asked if he would consider that maneuver.

"Then you weaken yourself at two positions," said Baker. "That's more work on Phillips defensively and that could affect his offense. He is a potential Gold Glove second baseman.

"I hear he is a wide receiver out there at second base, making those over-the-shoulder catches," Baker added. "I saw him practicing those kinds of catches yesterday."

Rosales is one who intrigues Baker, maybe the surprise in camp he talks about. What makes him interesting is the fact he doesn't play just shortstop. He plays third base, the outfield and played first base last year at Class AA Chattanooga.

"Rosales has looked good at shortstop," said Baker. "We have to figure if we need one or two or whatever. He not only looks athletic, he is athletic and he gets the job done big-time. The more he is around you, the more you like him and the more he grows on you. He is usually in the right place at the right time."

Rosales, 24, was the Reds 12th-round draft pick out of Western Michigan in 2005 and played 55 games at Class A Dayton that year, hitting .270 with six homers and 29 RBIs in 222 at-bats. He was the Reds minor-league hitter of the year last season, combining at Class A Sarasota and Chattanooga to hit .286 with 41 doubles, 11 triples, 18 homers and 790 RBIs in 136 games.

And he is basking in Baker's attention.

"That's good that he notices me," said Rosales. "I'm just thinking about what I need to do and I hope Gonzalez gets healthy because he is a great player.

"I need to focus on my role and what the team needs from me a situational hitter who gets the job done when it's needed, scoring runs, running the bases well, executing all the little things that add to the big goal," he said.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/03/01/ddn030208redsweb.html

OnBaseMachine
03-01-2008, 09:48 PM
After reading all these quotes from Baker on Rosales, I wouldn't be shocked if Rosales makes the team and gets some playing time at short. It would be huge if Rosales is good enough to stick at SS because this organization lacks a good SS that can also hit.

WMR
03-01-2008, 09:51 PM
I would be ecstatic if our system could produce a SS who could "stick" with the big league club and be a legitimate contributor.

fearofpopvol1
03-01-2008, 10:48 PM
The question is, if Rosales makes the team, is Castro out?
Is Rosales on par defensively with Janish?

I admittedly don't know much about either, but I'd think that with Keppinger as a likely candidate to see some time at SS, you'd want someone better defensively as the backup rather than someone with who has a better stick unless Rosales has both (which seems to conflict with what I've read about him). At least that would seem like the logical thing to do, but then again, the Reds aren't always logical.

Reds1
03-01-2008, 10:58 PM
Gonz is not out for the year. I doubt Janish is going to make the team. Kepp can play for a short time until Gonz is ready. Kepp doesn't have the range, but he makes all the plays and that's big. Janish might make some fantsy plays, but will he make all the routine plays. We can have another .220 hitter in the line up with Ross.

reds44
03-01-2008, 10:59 PM
The question is, if Rosales makes the team, is Castro out?
Is Rosales on par defensively with Janish?

I admittedly don't know much about either, but I'd think that with Keppinger as a likely candidate to see some time at SS, you'd want someone better defensively as the backup rather than someone with who has a better stick unless Rosales has both (which seems to conflict with what I've read about him). At least that would seem like the logical thing to do, but then again, the Reds aren't always logical.
No, but whatever edge Janish has on him with the glove, Rosales more then makes up for with his bat.

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 01:51 AM
I love Adam Rosales, but he is not a major league quality shortstop with his range.

RedsManRick
03-02-2008, 02:44 AM
I love Adam Rosales, but he is not a major league quality shortstop with his range.

If you're going to trade offense for defense, clearly Keppinger is that short term option. If you insist on defense, Janish is probably the best option. If you want to not swallow a million bucks, then Juan Castro is your best option. Given that Keppinger (or Castro if you prefer defense) as starter allows you to carry Castro, and Janish/Rosales doesn't, I think it's highly likely Keppinger starts on opening day.

If Keppinger is hitting well and acquitting himself in the field, I think Gonzalez will get plenty of time to get healthy and Castro gets cut when he is. Rosales strikes me purely as a younger Keppinger with a bit more power and a bit less average -- certainly not room for them both.

Cedric
03-02-2008, 03:11 AM
With Javier/Ross behind the plate I'll be disappointed somewhat if Keppinger is the starting SS. I'd plug Janish in and hope he keeps his head above water until Gonzalez comes back.

I wouldn't be disappointed, I would be ready to punch a hole in my wall if Castro comes up North to start. At this point I'm OK with Keppinger or Rosales. I'm hoping Janish gets the nod though. I think he will walk enough to make him a very valid option.

You have to think big picture here. If this club is going to allow anyone in the group of Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Volquez, and Roenicke we need Janish or Gonzalez at SS. The last thing we need is these guys showing a lack of confidence because of the play behind them. I don't trust the instincts of Keppinger but I'd still prefer that over Rosales. Luckily we are talking about a GM that understands the importance of defense and I think that alone makes Janish the man. Hopefully Wayne doesn't force Dustys hand and go with Castro. Pray with me.

OnBaseMachine
03-02-2008, 11:26 AM
Reds notebook
Rosales makes an impression early in camp
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

SARASOTA, Fla. - Adam Rosales says he's at Reds camp for the fun and experience. He also could end up with the Opening Day shortstop job.

It's a long shot - a real long shot. Rosales has played just 67 games above the Single-A level.

But with Alex Gonzalez almost certainly out for Opening Day, Reds manager Dusty Baker is looking at all possibilities, and Rosales has caught his eye. Rosales went 2-for-3 with two runs scored in the Reds' 12-11 win over the Pirates Saturday. He's 5-for-8 with a double, home run and four runs scored.

Rosales is 6 feet 1, 195 pounds, but he looks extremely athletic. Baker corrects that. "He doesn't look athletic," Baker said. "He just is athletic. He gets the job done big-time. The more you're around him, the more you like him, the more he grows on you. He's in the right place at the right time. He's played well for us."

Rosales, 24, was the Reds' 12th-round pick in the 2005 draft. He hit a combined .286 with 41 doubles, 11 triples, 18 home runs, 79 RBI and 13 steals at Sarasota and Chattanooga last year. He was named the Reds' minor-league hitter of the year.

This is his first big-league camp.

"I'm trying to learn as much as possible from all the veteran guys," Rosales said, "trying to get my feet on the ground, get my rhythm and timing down. It's a great opportunity, great experience, playing with big-league guys."

Rosales played shortstop at Western Michigan and his first two years in the minors. But he played mostly first base last year because he was coming off elbow surgery.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080302/SPT04/803020427

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 05:56 PM
I still say Keppinger is about as good of a defender as Alex Gonzalez. The only arguments I have read otherwise are "range", which I have refuted, and "instincts". Unfortunately, I can't test a players "instincts" here from my computer screen, but I think Kepp's bat could make up for them. I still don't understand why there are people against Jeff Keppinger as a starting shortstop...
to me, it's :deadhorse

Falls City Beer
03-02-2008, 06:03 PM
I still say Keppinger is about as good of a defender as Alex Gonzalez. The only arguments I have read otherwise are "range", which I have refuted, and "instincts". Unfortunately, I can't test a players "instincts" here from my computer screen, but I think Kepp's bat could make up for them. I still don't understand why there are people against Jeff Keppinger as a starting shortstop...
to me, it's :deadhorse

I for one am glad "range" is dismissed by you with a wave of the hand. :)

Let's try Dunn at short!

Look, range is Everything. Everything Part II is being able to get the ball and release it quickly with a strong throw (which is instincts, the motions required to complete a put-out). Keppinger is just adequate in both areas. Watch game clips. In the end, he'll do in a pinch, but if we're talking about a couple of months of starting, I'd take just about any other candidate for SS on this team's roster over Keppinger. (Except Castro, who is awful with the bat and the glove).

Stormy
03-02-2008, 06:21 PM
The problem is, we don't have a SS with elite range anywhere on the roster. This fanbase has been spoiled by our opportunities to watch elite fielding SS in somewhat recent years, such as Concepcion and Larkin (not to be mention the 2Bs we've sported with either above average range like Reese and Phillips, or other positional/instinctual fielding skills like Boone).

However, at his current age and status, Alex Gonzalez doesn't fit into that mold of elite fielder, with elite range anymore. So, even if we go with our best 'glove' at SS, it's not like he's really an elite difference-maker. He's still solid, with great instincts for the position, but his range isn't anything special, his arm is a few ticks below it's prime, and at least last year his hands were below par. I'm in favor of playing Gonzalez at SS when he's healthy, but frankly in any discussion of range, he's not so superior in that regard that he makes a significant difference, in my opinion.

We're a better defensive team with him on the field still, but not by a wide margin. Keppinger is certainly comparable enough that we don't lose much on the defensive side, and we stand to gain a great deal on the offensive side, during brief injury stints. I wish we could have traded Gonzo, coming off his GAB offensive surge last year, to a contender looking for a veteran SS in exchange for a young SS prospect of the future.

Falls City Beer
03-02-2008, 06:25 PM
The problem is, we don't have a SS with elite range anywhere on the roster. This fanbase has been spoiled by our opportunities to watch elite fielding SS in somewhat recent years, such as Concepcion and Larkin (not to be mention the 2Bs we've sported with either above average range like Reese and Phillips, or other positional/instinctual fielding skills like Boone).

However, at his current age and status, Alex Gonzalez doesn't fit into that mold of elite fielder, with elite range anymore. So, even if we go with our best 'glove' at SS, it's not like he's really an elite difference-maker. He's still solid, with great instincts for the position, but his range isn't anything special, his arm is a few ticks below it's prime, and at least last year his hands were below par. I'm in favor of playing Gonzalez at SS when he's healthy, but frankly in any discussion of range, he's not so superior in that regard that he makes a significant difference, in my opinion.

We're a better defensive team with him on the field still, but not by a wide margin. Kepp is certainly comparable enough that we don't lose much onb the defensive side, and we stand to gain a great deal on the offensive side, during brief injury stints.

What I know: Gonzalez is better than Keppinger, enough so that I'd much rather start Gonzalez over Keppinger.

What I don't know: how good Janish is. Is he better defensively than Gonzalez? If so, he should start over Keppinger every day of the week. Bat be damned.

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 06:29 PM
The problem is, we don't have a SS with elite range anywhere on the roster. This fanbase has been spoiled by our opportunities to watch elite fielding SS in somewhat recent years, such as Concepcion and Larkin (not to be mention the 2Bs we've sported with either above average range like Reese and Phillips, or other positional/instinctual fielding skills like Boone).

However, at his current age and status, Alex Gonzalez doesn't fit into that mold of elite fielder, with elite range anymore. So, even if we go with our best 'glove' at SS, it's not like he's really an elite difference-maker. He's still solid, with great instincts for the position, but his range isn't anything special, his arm is a few ticks below it's prime, and at least last year his hands were below par. I'm in favor of playing Gonzalez at SS when he's healthy, but frankly in any discussion of range, he's not so superior in that regard that he makes a significant difference, in my opinion.

We're a better defensive team with him on the field still, but not by a wide margin. Keppinger is certainly comparable enough that we don't lose much on the defensive side, and we stand to gain a great deal on the offensive side, during brief injury stints. I wish we could have traded Gonzo, coming off his GAB offensive surge last year, to a contender looking for a veteran SS in exchange for a young SS prospect of the future.

great post. I think you hit the nail on the head by mentioning that WE should have tried to trade AGon over the offseason, although I would have been happy with just a couple of bullpen arms in return as I feel Kepp is an everyday shortstop and trading AGon would have saved moolah...


What I know: Gonzalez is better than Keppinger, enough so that I'd much rather start Gonzalez over Keppinger.

What I don't know: how good Janish is. Is he better defensively than Gonzalez? If so, he should start over Keppinger every day of the week. Bat be damned.

In 2007 Alex Gonzalez's range factor was 4.24, Keppinger's was 4.28. Not a great stat, but good enough to show that the difference between the two in range is very small. Now the difference in their offense...

mth123
03-02-2008, 06:32 PM
I think you could see a mix and match. I'd cut Castro and start with Kepp. Janish would be on the bench and come in for defense. Meanwhile Rosales tries to make the swith back to SS at AAA. If it becomes obvious that Kepp is hurting the team on D, then I guess Janish will start most of the time. You could see Kepp playing when the extreme flyball guys (Harang and Arroyo) are pitching. Janish should probably start when Belisle pitches. Could probably go either way with Fogg or Volquez.

If Rosales makes the switch in AAA he could enter the mix. Of course this all assumes that Gonzalez is out for a while. He may only miss a week or two.

Of course that is what Redszone would do. I'm betting Dusty keeps Castro and goes with him on the groundball days if he proves healthy. I can't see this team cutting Castro with Gonzalez hurt. In the Red's mind, he was brought in for just such a contingency. I could see Janish presence and strong impression on defense coupled with Rosales good impression and/or maybe Jerry Gil showing he can play defense a little making it easier to cut Castro when Gonzalez returns. But I don't see Castro being cut while Gonzalez is out and if Gonzalez seems iffy, they'll find a way to keep Castro by stashing him or some one else on the DL if necessary.

Cedric
03-02-2008, 07:03 PM
great post. I think you hit the nail on the head by mentioning that WE should have tried to trade AGon over the offseason, although I would have been happy with just a couple of bullpen arms in return as I feel Kepp is an everyday shortstop and trading AGon would have saved moolah...



In 2007 Alex Gonzalez's range factor was 4.24, Keppinger's was 4.28. Not a great stat, but good enough to show that the difference between the two in range is very small. Now the difference in their offense...

Defensive metrics get about as much respect as badfun******* did here.

Do you realize we might be looking at Valentin/Ross, Keppinger, and Freel/Hopper up the middle? If you advise the Reds to use their young arms you better have something better than that out there. Luckily Krivsky values both parts of the game of baseball and hopefully doesn't buy into faulty defense metrics.

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 07:15 PM
Defensive metrics get about as much respect as badfun******* did here.

Do you realize we might be looking at Valentin/Ross, Keppinger, and Freel/Hopper up the middle? If you advise the Reds to use their young arms you better have something better than that out there. Luckily Krivsky values both parts of the game of baseball and hopefully doesn't buy into faulty defense metrics.

range factor is to fielding metrics as batting average is to offensive metrics...

David Ross is a good defensive catcher, no?

Cedric
03-02-2008, 10:07 PM
range factor is to fielding metrics as batting average is to offensive metrics...

David Ross is a good defensive catcher, no?

Not in my view. Keppinger at SS everyday isn't a valid option with our pitching staff, IMO. I'd like to see Janish walk enough to justify his bat in the lineup until Gonzalez gets back.

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 10:35 PM
range factor is to fielding metrics as batting average is to offensive metrics...


I think that is somewhat misleading. I think range factor holds a little bit of water when comparing two players at the same position on the same team in the same season. You are dealing with similar situations for the most part in terms of pitchers and conditions.

When you try to use RF for players on different teams, it gets dicey, but its slightly useful when looking at the same team, same position and same season.

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 11:02 PM
I think that is somewhat misleading. I think range factor holds a little bit of water when comparing two players at the same position on the same team in the same season. You are dealing with similar situations for the most part in terms of pitchers and conditions.

When you try to use RF for players on different teams, it gets dicey, but its slightly useful when looking at the same team, same position and same season.

since when is batting average not slightly useful?

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 11:08 PM
since when is batting average not slightly useful?
Its a better comparison for fielding for players at the same position on the same team in the same year than BA is for determining the quality of a hitter.

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 11:11 PM
Its a better comparison for fielding for players at the same position on the same team in the same year than BA is for determining the quality of a hitter.

I disagree. It is good for comparing the range for players at the same position on the same team in the same year, but it does not take into account many other factors, just like batting average does not take into account power/patience...

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 11:13 PM
Well I'm glad to hear it... So what is your take on Jeff Keppinger's range, and what kind of defensive shortstop he would make as AGon's replacement?

One of the bigger benefits that Gonzo brings to SS isn't his range, its his ability to turn the double play while having adequate range. I still think Gonzo has more range than Kepp does, but I don't think its a whole lot. Gonzo does bring more to the position though than Kepp.

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 11:14 PM
Well I'm glad to hear it... So what is your take on Jeff Keppinger's range, and what kind of defensive shortstop he would make as AGon's replacement?

**I've edited my last post**

*BaseClogger*
03-02-2008, 11:19 PM
One of the bigger benefits that Gonzo brings to SS isn't his range, its his ability to turn the double play while having adequate range. I still think Gonzo has more range than Kepp does, but I don't think its a whole lot. Gonzo does bring more to the position though than Kepp.

This is the best counterargument I have seen and I will concede this point. I'm willing to agree that AGon is slightly better than Kepp defensively, but with offense accounted for, how is it even close?

dougdirt
03-02-2008, 11:43 PM
This is the best counterargument I have seen and I will concede this point. I'm willing to agree that AGon is slightly better than Kepp defensively, but with offense accounted for, how is it even close?

That is something I am not sure I am willing to argue. Offensively, Keppinger is decently ahead of Gonzalez.... but I am not sure if I am comfortable currently making the argument as to how much the difference in the offense/defense is between the two and how it works out as overall players go.

Cedric
03-02-2008, 11:43 PM
Its a better comparison for fielding for players at the same position on the same team in the same year than BA is for determining the quality of a hitter.

One is overvalued while the other is just not reliable. I've tried and spent hours reading and there isn't one defensive metric that I would feel comfortable using in an argument. And definitely not ZR.

princeton
03-03-2008, 10:48 AM
what? my offseason pick for sleeper (Rosales) is the early camp surprise?

go figure ;)

Triples
03-03-2008, 11:05 AM
andy phillips?

really?

I just don't see that happening.

It's much more likely that they slide Keppinger to 1st against LHP or that they just let Votto take the AB's.

And if the Reds do carry a RH bat for 1st base other than Keppinger I'd put my money on Adam Rosales.

Does Votto hit left handed pitchers so poorly that you'd have to platoon him?

Chip R
03-03-2008, 11:11 AM
Does Votto hit left handed pitchers so poorly that you'd have to platoon him?


He's a young, left-handed hitter with minimal major league experience. Of course he can't hit left-handed pitchers. :rolleyes:

Triples
03-03-2008, 11:17 AM
I love Adam Rosales, but he is not a major league quality shortstop with his range.

I'd have to agree with Dougdirt. I've been fortunate enough to watch Rosales play a lot of games over the last two years and while he was a SS in college, I cannot imagine him playing there in the Majors. Maybe he could sub in an emergency for a couple of innings but his quickness and range seem much better suited to first or third. He might work ok as a corner outfielder; his arm seems plenty strong from third, however I've never seen him throw from the outfield. He unquestionably has the ability at the plate and he's got his head screwed on straight as well.

Triples
03-03-2008, 11:19 AM
He's a young, left-handed hitter with minimal major league experience. Of course he can't hit left-handed pitchers. :rolleyes:

Chip: I love your sarcasm!! :D

RedsManRick
03-03-2008, 11:19 AM
He's a young, left-handed hitter with minimal major league experience. Of course he can't hit left-handed pitchers. :rolleyes:

Or it could be that he struggled against lefties in the minors. You know, whichever. :rolleyes:

2007 vR: .309/.388/.516, 0.904 OPS
2007 vL: .240/.347/.322, 0.669 OPS

2006 vR: .351/.438/.631, 1.068 OPS
2006 VL: .262/.357/.399, 0.756 OPS

2005 vR: .283/.353/.474, 0.827 OPS
2005 vL: .196/.275/.315, 0.590 OPS

That's why Votto needs to be platooned - or at least a very solid case for it.

Triples
03-03-2008, 11:21 AM
Or it could be that he struggled against lefties in the minors. You know, whichever. :rolleyes:

2007 vR: .309/.388/.516, 0.904 OPS
2007 vL: .240/.347/.322, 0.669 OPS

2006 vR: .351/.438/.631, 1.068 OPS
2006 VL: .262/.357/.399, 0.756 OPS

2005 vR: .283/.353/.474, 0.827 OPS
2005 vL: .196/.275/.315, 0.590 OPS

That's why Votto needs to be platooned - or at least a very solid case for it.

RMK: That is what I was wondering but too lazy to research myself. Fairly significant disparity.

Chip R
03-03-2008, 11:48 AM
Or it could be that he struggled against lefties in the minors. You know, whichever. :rolleyes:

2007 vR: .309/.388/.516, 0.904 OPS
2007 vL: .240/.347/.322, 0.669 OPS

2006 vR: .351/.438/.631, 1.068 OPS
2006 VL: .262/.357/.399, 0.756 OPS

2005 vR: .283/.353/.474, 0.827 OPS
2005 vL: .196/.275/.315, 0.590 OPS

That's why Votto needs to be platooned - or at least a very solid case for it.

I know one thing for sure. He's not going to learn how to hit lefties if he's sitting on the bench whenever there's a lefty pitching.

princeton
03-03-2008, 11:56 AM
He's not going to learn how to hit lefties if he's sitting on the bench whenever there's a lefty pitching.


Unless you give him a laptop.

you can learn how to do lots of things on the internet :thumbup:

fearofpopvol1
03-03-2008, 04:57 PM
One thing is for sure: For games where Keppinger was in the lineup last year, the Reds won more games than they lost. Is there a direct correlation? I don't know, but it's interesting to say the least.

Falls City Beer
05-15-2008, 03:10 PM
If Janish really is a great glove, then he's got to earn the starting spot. I just don't see any other option. Keppinger in an already lame infield (defensively) would just add to the defensive nightmare. (Post March 1, 2008)

Toot! (Sort of).

Chip R
05-15-2008, 03:13 PM
Toot! (Sort of).


That Votto guy isn't doing too shabby against lefties either. :D

Roy Tucker
05-15-2008, 03:14 PM
I know one thing for sure. He's not going to learn how to hit lefties if he's sitting on the bench whenever there's a lefty pitching.


Votto's vL stats may not be getting better, but his at-bats against lefties have been looking better lately, i.e. working the pitcher more, getting deeper in the count, not swinging at non-strikes, etc etc.

At least to this untrained eye.

Raisor
05-15-2008, 04:32 PM
Votto's vL stats may not be getting better, but his at-bats against lefties have been looking better lately, i.e. working the pitcher more, getting deeper in the count, not swinging at non-strikes, etc etc.

At least to this untrained eye.

72 PA's vsLHP this season.

.292 .361 .477 .838