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View Full Version : Buster Olney on Homer Bailey



Benihana
03-05-2008, 02:18 PM
From his latest ESPN Insider blog...

• The stock of Cincinnati prospect Homer Bailey seems to have taken a dramatic tumble in the past year. Talent evaluators say the Reds have demonstrated a clear willingness to deal Bailey, while coveting fellow prospect Johnny Cueto. And rival teams have grown increasingly skeptical about whether the young right-hander will make the adjustments necessary to become a successful big league pitcher. "What you hear is that [Bailey] is someone who thinks he's got it all figured out," one evaluator said.

WMR
03-05-2008, 02:19 PM
Well he is getting pretty old to expect he figures much anything else out.

Unassisted
03-05-2008, 02:20 PM
I wonder if he "heard" this from Hal McCoy? ;)

BRM
03-05-2008, 02:21 PM
I think Wayne has been willing to deal Bailey the entire offseason. He either couldn't get what he wanted for him or he found no takers for Homer's services.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 02:23 PM
I think Wayne has been willing to deal Bailey the entire offseason. He either couldn't get what he wanted for him or he found no takers for Homer's services.

I think its likely that he wasn't able to get the top end pitching he wanted for Bailey so he chose to hold onto him. I highly doubt there weren't takers for his services, but that there weren't takers willing to pay what the Reds were likely asking for.

princeton
03-05-2008, 02:28 PM
keep it up, Buster. Writers like you are turning Homer into the new Steve Carlton. Which works for me.

Unassisted
03-05-2008, 02:28 PM
I think Wayne has been willing to deal Bailey the entire offseason. He either couldn't get what he wanted for him or he found no takers for Homer's services.
You raise an interesting point here. Wayne has cut loose many "talent evaluators" from the Reds organization in the past couple of years. Some of them were bitter when they left and probably have an ax to grind. Could the bitter guys be poisoning the trade well for Wayne by telling this "truth" about Homer to everyone in the scouting world who will listen?

Team Clark
03-05-2008, 02:32 PM
You raise an interesting point here. Wayne has cut loose many "talent evaluators" from the Reds organization in the past couple of years. Some of them were bitter when they left and probably have an ax to grind. Could the bitter guys be poisoning the trade well for Wayne by telling this "truth" about Homer to everyone in the scouting world who will listen?

Excellent point. That could very well be happening. Hard to say with anonymous sources. Certainly not unheard of.

M2
03-05-2008, 02:33 PM
I wonder if he "heard" this from Hal McCoy? ;)

I believe you've got the sourcing nailed.


I think its likely that he wasn't able to get the top end pitching he wanted for Bailey so he chose to hold onto him. I highly doubt there weren't takers for his services, but that there weren't takers willing to pay what the Reds were likely asking for.

Yep, I'd think that's likely it, though I think it's a bit of an ice water bath that more clubs weren't clamoring for his services and I think that might have caused some skepticism to creep into the Reds' minds concerning Bailey.

FWIW, I don't consider that a bad thing. It might mean they don't push him as hard and give him the space to mature rather than demand he mature in 10 seconds or else. Not having everyone be in love with his arm and expecting him to be the next big thing could be the best thing in the world for Homer Bailey.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 02:40 PM
FWIW, I don't consider that a bad thing. It might mean they don't push him as hard and give him the space to mature rather than demand he mature in 10 seconds or else. Not having everyone be in love with his arm and expecting him to be the next big thing could be the best thing in the world for Homer Bailey.

It certainly isn't going to hurt Bailey to spend some time in AAA. He, like almost everyone else, has things he needs to work on.

KoryMac5
03-05-2008, 03:33 PM
It certainly isn't going to hurt Bailey to spend some time in AAA. He, like almost everyone else, has things he needs to work on.

The question then becomes does he have a coach in AAA that he would listen to? For some reason I don't see Ted Power as that guy.

TRF
03-05-2008, 03:38 PM
It certainly isn't going to hurt Bailey to spend some time in AAA. He, like almost everyone else, has things he needs to work on.

Who are you and why are you wearing doug's skin and claiming to be him?

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 03:53 PM
Who are you and why are you wearing doug's skin and claiming to be him?

I have never said that AAA would hurt Bailey, I have just said that being in MLB would help him learn quicker. :cool:

Falls City Beer
03-05-2008, 03:55 PM
I'll say it again: you're only an uberprospect once.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 04:00 PM
I'll say it again: you're only an uberprospect once.

Ive said it before and will say it again also:
You aren't always at your top value while you are a prospect.

Falls City Beer
03-05-2008, 04:01 PM
Ive said it before and will say it again also:
You aren't always at your top value while you are a prospect.

Great, but one window of tradeability appears to have closed for him.

Bailey's now a "project," not an uberprospect.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 04:03 PM
Great, but one window of tradeability appears to have closed for him.

Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?

BRM
03-05-2008, 04:07 PM
Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?

It may improve the team overall? I don't think he's saying Homer must be traded. Just that it would be nice if his value was high enough to get a good return if he were to be traded.

Falls City Beer
03-05-2008, 04:07 PM
Of course the response begs the question of 'why must you trade him'?

The thing is now the Reds have no choice basically but to hold onto him.

Now here comes a test of this organization's ability to turn raw material into an actual pitcher.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 04:22 PM
The thing is now the Reds have no choice basically but to hold onto him.

Now here comes a test of this organization's ability to turn raw material into an actual pitcher.

The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.

BRM
03-05-2008, 04:24 PM
The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.

Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.

Patrick Bateman
03-05-2008, 04:36 PM
Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.

Well to be fair, how many prospects do have more value than Bailey right now? 15-20 tops if you were being pessimistic? Based on most lists I've seen, Bailey remains one of the better prospects in baseball. That's based on Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus... etc.

Bailey's value has probably dropped marginally from his status last year, but not by as much as some make it out to be IMO. The fact of the matter is that Bailey still managed to get through another year without any major injuries. That in itself is at least half the battle right now. As long as Bailey can log 150+ innings over the next few years, I like his chances of developing into a reasonable starter.

His major league audition made it abundantly clear that he isn't a major league ready product, but I'm going to assume that most baseball executives knew that in the first palce. In my mind his value didn't drop much with that, is that his season was pretty predictable. His struggles really shouldn't have surprised anyone. Not sure who he was fooling as a polished product.

He's still the big kid that oozes potential, fairly close to the majors. I'm sure he would appeal to most any club, especially the pitching starved Orioles. The reason Bedard isn't a Red right now IMO, is the refusal to include Bruce, or the refusal to move an additional high end prospect to go along with Bailey (assuming he truly was offered in the first place).

BRM
03-05-2008, 04:39 PM
Well to be fair, how many prospects do have more value than Bailey right now? 15-20 tops if you were being pessimistic?


That's not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.

Thinking about it again and I doubt he would have landed Bedard anyway. The O's seemed hell bent on getting a top OF prospect for him. Bailey probably wouldn't have tickled their fancy.

Patrick Bateman
03-05-2008, 04:43 PM
That''s not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.



Well that's all semantics anyways, but I'd say if your a top 15 prospect (and I think Bailey is) then you are indeed better than most any other prospect. That would make you an average-above average #1 prospect for a team, meaning there a lot of teams where Bailey would easily be their most prized jewel.

Falls City Beer
03-05-2008, 04:47 PM
The Reds could trade him 5 minutes from now if they truly wanted to. You act as if he has no value. the kid has tons of value. Is it what it was a year ago? Probably not, but he still has more value than almost every prospect in baseball.

The Reds tried mightily to move him this offseason. He's still a Red.

If he can't bring what you want in return, I fail to see where the notion of a top-ten commodity comes from.

In short, he can't help the Reds when he's with them as a prospect, and right now he can't bring in what they need.

Of course you could trade Bailey right now--some team would take him--but you're selling pennies on what was once the dollar.

red-in-la
03-05-2008, 05:05 PM
It is simply why they invented the term, "prospect." And why you should never, ever, ever overvalue your own unless you want to remain the Pittsburgh Pirates for the foreseeable future.

Bruce was untaouchable, but now his legs are a question. Bailey was untaouchable, now he is a head case. Cueto is currently untouchable, but he remains a prospect.....

I just believe you should take 50% off the value the "experts" and your own scouts give a prospect. Of course you don't trade them all, or maybe even more than an occassional few. But you need to see that this is one reason that teams that depend on their farm must live within a competitive CYCLE. And you need to senstitive to it.

The time is NOW for the Reds (or maybe a few months ago when they had a chance to get the pieces they needed). Forget about 3-4 years from now.....it just ain't gonna happen.

kbrake
03-05-2008, 05:10 PM
Maybe I am in the minority but I still think Homer Bailey could maybe possibly be kind of good. Can't believe how quickly people have turned on Bailey. Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media but he has made 9 starts. 9 starts people how about we give him a fair chance before we start labeling him as worthless.

BRM
03-05-2008, 05:13 PM
I haven't seen anyone label Bailey as worthless. Pointing out his stock might be low at this point in his career is hardly "turning on him".

lollipopcurve
03-05-2008, 05:13 PM
Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media

And maybe he does.

Falls City Beer
03-05-2008, 05:18 PM
Maybe I am in the minority but I still think Homer Bailey could maybe possibly be kind of good. Can't believe how quickly people have turned on Bailey. Maybe the kid doesn't do well with the media but he has made 9 starts. 9 starts people how about we give him a fair chance before we start labeling him as worthless.

For myself, I haven't "turned" on him. I've always had problems with him from a control standpoint, and because he's a product of a system that doesn't know how to turn minor league starters into major league starters (which isn't his fault obviously).

kbrake
03-05-2008, 05:20 PM
For myself, I haven't "turned" on him. I've always had problems with him from a control standpoint, and because he's a product of a system that doesn't know how to turn minor league starters into major league starters (which isn't his fault obviously).

Fair point and I am pretty sure I do remember your stance on him being consistant from the start. Dont you think though that this place has jumped off a bridge in regards to Bailey?

Caveat Emperor
03-05-2008, 05:44 PM
Fair point and I am pretty sure I do remember your stance on him being consistant from the start. Dont you think though that this place has jumped off a bridge in regards to Bailey?

Most people had their hopes pinned that Bailey was naturally gifted to overcome the unbelievably poor coaching they knew he was going to get.

Since it seems that isn't the case, it creates a much more pessimistic view in people's minds.

Blitz Dorsey
03-05-2008, 05:44 PM
Bailey will be fine. It's all about getting his confidence back. Let's not forget he wasn't just very good in the minors in 2006 and '07 before his callup, he was dominant. Once he finds his confidence on the MLB level, he will shine. And yes, some control would help. But for pitchers, a lot of times that goes hand-and-hand with confidence.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 05:51 PM
Erik Bedard would probably be a Red right now if Bailey's value was truly higher than nearly every prospect in baseball.

Not really. The Mariners traded Adam Jones, who likely would have fallen right behind Bailey in most rankings had he qualified, a proven Major League arm, the #2 prospect in the Cal League according to Baseball America and a Top 100 prospect in baseball, a quality reliever in Kam Micklio who throws up to 97 MPH who spent time in AAA last year with success and Tony Butler who was the teams #12 overall prospect who has a decent fastball and one of the systems best curveball.

To get Erik Bedard the Reds were going to have to give up a lot more than Homer Bailey's value in December 2006.

kbrake
03-05-2008, 05:54 PM
Since it seems that isn't the case, it creates a much more pessimistic view in people's minds.

Thats the part of it I don't get. Homer has had 12 starts in AAA and 9 at the Major League level. How can anything not seem to be the case? I am not saying he could not use more time in AAA all I am saying is it seems like people have lost all faith in Homer and I'm not sure why other then a couple reporters putting thoughts into the heads of people because they are not happy with Homer.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 05:58 PM
That's not quite the same as saying his value is better than nearly every prospect in baseball. At least not to me. Maybe I read too much into what doug typed.

Thinking about it again and I doubt he would have landed Bedard anyway. The O's seemed hell bent on getting a top OF prospect for him. Bailey probably wouldn't have tickled their fancy.

Homer Bailey was the #9 ranked prospect by Baseball America, ESPN and Baseball Prospectus. I would say being the 9th best prospect in all of baseball means you have more value than nearly every prospect in baseball considering there are over 5,000 minor leaguers.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 05:59 PM
The Reds tried mightily to move him this offseason. He's still a Red.

If he can't bring what you want in return, I fail to see where the notion of a top-ten commodity comes from.

In short, he can't help the Reds when he's with them as a prospect, and right now he can't bring in what they need.

Of course you could trade Bailey right now--some team would take him--but you're selling pennies on what was once the dollar.

Because no prospect single handedly is going to bring you an Erik Bedard. So you are now asking more out of Bailey than anyone can return.

As for selling for pennies on the dollar, no. More like selling .80 on the dollar.

dougdirt
03-05-2008, 06:01 PM
It is simply why they invented the term, "prospect." And why you should never, ever, ever overvalue your own unless you want to remain the Pittsburgh Pirates for the foreseeable future.

Bruce was untaouchable, but now his legs are a question. Bailey was untaouchable, now he is a head case. Cueto is currently untouchable, but he remains a prospect.....

There is NOTHING wrong with Jay Bruce's legs. Dusty Baker is a freaking idiot and had no clue what he was talking about when he said what he said.

NC Reds
03-05-2008, 08:32 PM
There is NOTHING wrong with Jay Bruce's legs. Dusty Baker is a freaking idiot and had no clue what he was talking about when he said what he said.

Amen to that.

I firmly believe this organization will only get off of the hamster wheel of mediocrity when it fully embraces the concept of developing young talent. Maybe I am misreading the situation, but whoever moaned to the press about Homer's attitude should consider another line of work. Don't tell me that Homer won't listen. If your job is to teach, then teach. If Homer needs an attitude adjustment, then you adjust it.

This reminds me of a former football coach at one of my alma maters. He used to lament that the kids "had not learned how to win yet." Sorry buddy, but its your job to teach and instill the habits that lead to winning. Don't blame the kids because you can't do your job.

Homer wants to be successful. Get some coaches in here that want the challenge of developing his talent.

mth123
03-06-2008, 06:18 AM
This is all nonsense.

People who understand baseball still value Bailey and his long-term value remains intact. The misguided masses (who I and most of this board may have been in moments of weakness last off-season) who thought that the time was upon us have soured because he didn't become a TOR starter after a few starts have soured, but people who know real talent probably don't think that way.

Unrealistic expectations for Bailey's progression are now facing a dose of reality. If that equates to a drop in value, then I guess that is what we have. I think that people who are inside the game, who have the actual power to place value, never had those unrealistic expectations in the first place. I suppose a few teams had hoped that the Reds had soured a little and tried to steal Bailey. Those lowball offers don't mean that Bailey has lost value and the fact that the Reds didn't find the right deal doesn't mean he is now untradeable. I think it means the Reds were smart and didn't bite on a franchise killing pipedream.

Seattle made one of the worst deals I can remember in getting Bedard. Unless there is some secret agreement that Bedard is willing to sign long-term, it simply isn't worth it. Seattle's ownership has the money to buy its way out of the huge hole that deal put in its future, so they may recover. But that organization is much worse off by dealing so much for such a short term rental. I wouldn't have dealt Adam Jones straight-up for Bedard unless a contract extension was involved. Adding all those other guys was lunacy and refusal to be the victim of such a deal is the real reason that the Reds didn't move Bailey.

Baltimore waited for a chump. Seattle obliged. Bailey is still a Red. Under those circumstances, good for us.

traderumor
03-06-2008, 06:53 AM
Using Buster Olney as a source to support any argument is not wise.