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Chip R
03-05-2008, 09:41 PM
Here is the Reds Hot Stove League show for 3-5-08. Paul Daugherty was the host tonight and he recapped the Reds win over the Red Sox. He also mentioned an event at GAB on Friday March 21, An Evening with Bench and Brennaman at Club 4192. Tickets are $75 and proceeds go to the Reds HOF & Museum. It includes a buffet meal, 2 drink tickets, parking and a free preview of the Joe Nuxhall exhibit at the HOF & Museum.

After that, Marty called in. Paul asked what Marty thought of the Patterson signing. Marty said he doesn't disagree with the move and he has some ability and while no one has said anything, he'd be stunned if Bruce was on the Opening Day roster. He said if Patterson can show some ability, the Reds will platoon him and Freel or Hopper in CF and the odd man out will probably be traded. He thinks they feel Bruce should play every day in the minors. Marty thinks the Patterson signing could be a very, very good addition to the ballclub.

After commercial, Paul asked Marty if Dusty believes Bruce isn't a CF. Marty said he doesn't know and if he had to guess he'd have to say yes. Marty sees him as a RF more than a CF because of his arm. Paul asked Marty if Dusty's worried about Bruce's legs. Marty said Bruce went into Dusty's office and said he doesn't have a problem with his legs. Paul asked assuming Jr. and Dunn are healthy, if Bruce is in AAA. Marty said he thinks Wayne has preconceived ideas about certain players and no matter what they do they will open the year in AAA. Marty thinks at some point Wayne and Dusty are going to go head to head about that. Marty believes Dusty wants to take the best 25 guys north. For instance, with Gonzo hurt, Dusty has been singing Adam Rosales' & Paul Janish's praises. Marty said maybe neither one is ready to play in the bigs but it characterizes what Dusty's thinking is.

Marty said that Dusty's thinking is if a kid played at AA last year and he plays well during the spring, he doesn't have a problem taking him north. Marty doesn't think Wayne feels like that. Paul asked Marty who he thought was most responsible for bringing in Patterson and Hariston. Marty said he thinks it was Dusty (Duh). Paul said that kind of goes against what Marty was saying. Marty said since Bruce and Gil are laid up, Dusty's covering himself by bringing in the ex-Cubs to see what they can do. Marty speculated that there might have been a discussion between Dusty and Wayne and Wayne made it clear to Dusty that Bruce is starting the year in AAA. Marty said if you don't go with Bruce, you have to platoon in CF. Marty thinks that they aren't going to let Bruce make the team unless he can play every day against both righties and lefties because they don't want to platoon him. Paul asked Marty if he agreed with that. Marty said he didn't and he feels he's ready to start in CF on Opening Day. Paul said the Brewers put Ryan Braun in there and he did well. Marty agreed and said that it depends on how quickly Bruce can recover from the quad strain. He raved about Bruce's double of Burnett the other day. They both agree it's foolish to start Bruce in AAA.

After commercial, Paul asked Marty if sending Bruce down to AAA would be a waste. Marty said it would be unless he falls on his face the rest of ST

The first caller said he's upset with the Reds bringing all the vets into camp. He wants to see Homer and some of the young guys come up and they keep signing these veterans. Marty said he disagrees with him about Patterson. (Uh oh, does Marty have a little man crush on Corey? What does Hopper think about that. Remember, Marty, hell hath no fury like a Hopper scorned.) Marty said he's only 28, he's had some success in the bigs, he played for Dusty in CHI. Marty believes that if things work out with certain players on this team who can perform at a level where they can benefit the Reds, they can finish 2nd in the division behind the Cubs. (Fun fact: The Cubs have not won consecutive world/league/division championships since 1908) He thinks they are potentially better than every other team in the division. Marty said the division stinks and you don't have to be that great to be in contention in the NL Central.

The next caller asked why the Reds are not putting the young guys in the rotation/lineup if they are everything they say they are. Marty said he doesn't disagree and used the Tigers as an example. He said a few years ago DET put several young guys in the rotation and they got their butts kicked and then 2 years ago they went to the Series. Marty thinks Cueto has passed Homer and he's never seen a guy who had a better arm, a better assortment of pitches and a better ability to throw strikes than Cueto. Marty said Homer may be his own worst enemy because of his attitude. He said Cueto's confidence is really high and Cueto feels he should pitch in the big leagues now. Paul asked Marty if he would take Cueto north over Homer. Marty said he would have told him at the beginning of ST that he expects him to be in the rotation when the season starts.

The next caller asked about Freel and if he is the odd man out and if he has options. Marty said he doesn't think he has options. Assuming Bruce starts in AAA and Patterson makes the team, it's going to be between Freel and Hopper and he doesn't think both of them will make the club.

After commercial, Paul said it's a little ridiculous that they valued Bruce so highly in the offseason that they wouldn't trade him if he goes down to AAA. (That's a good point. Same could be said for trading Josh.) Jeff Brantley called in. Paul chided him for his prediction that Bruce would be starting on Opening Day. Jeff said that with Bruce's injury and the feeling that Freel and Hopper aren't adequate defensively they needed to bring someone like Patterson in. He does agree with Marty and Paul that Bruce should start in CF. Paul said that Dusty said he's going to give him that chance and if Jeff believes that. Jeff said he does.

Paul asked Jeff what he thought about Cueto. Jeff agreed that Cueto should be in the rotation because he feels he's ready. He said they know what Affeldt, Belisle, Fogg and Arroyo can do but we don't know what Cueto can do. He asked what if he's as good as Harang. He said Cueto's paid his dues in the minors, he works hard so he should get the chance. Paul asked why they weren't traded if they won't go north with the Reds. Jeff said you can't guarantee these guys a job before ST starts but you do apply as much pressure in ST on them and say if they want to play, prove it.

After commercial, Paul asked Jeff if he went to the game today. Jeff said he didn't. (Marty didn't go either. I find it a little odd that the two main broadcasters for this team don't go to all the ST games.) Paul asked Jeff about Volquez. Jeff said he saw him before the Reds traded for him and he believes it was a steal to move Josh and get Mad Dog for him. Paul asked if he makes the team. Jeff said he has as good or better shot than anyone. He said the heat is on guys like Belisle, Homer, Cueto and Mad Dog. If he had to rank them he would rank them, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey and Belisle in that order. He said Homer pitched well today but his problem is that he throws a curve that won't be called for a strike and if he hangs it it will get hit very hard and very far. He said until he learns and/or is willing to make the adjustment to a shorter breaking ball, his time in the majors is going to be limited.

The next caller asked Jeff if he's seen anything this ST that shows Dusty's man love for vets. Jeff said he doesn't buy it cause he's played for him. He said when he was the closer for Dusty in SF, he got replaced by Rod Beck who came up from the minors. He said Dusty will play the best players available guaranteed because the last thing Dusty wants to do is answer questions after every game of "Why did you lose?" Paul said that when they bring in guys like Affeldt, Fogg, Hariston and Patterson, people are going to say that they are taking up spots that the younger guys should have. Jeff said that the only one of those guys who has a guaranteed contract is Affeldt. (Fogg has options?) Jeff said that if he's Dusty, he wants to see if Patterson can live up to his hype from 4 years ago. He said he wants to see what happens to Bruce when he's no longer the top dog in the lineup and there's big pressure on him. Jeff said if you can't handle the heat in ST, you can't handle it when the season starts.

The next caller thinks the Hamilton trade was dumb and he's an unbelievable star. He also thinks Bruce should start every day in CF. Jeff said that because of the abuse Josh put his body through, he has the body of a 35 year old, not a 27 year old. He said it isn't just about physical ability and if you don't trade Josh and you want to play Bruce, you are going to have a problem since they can't play at the same time.

The next caller asked with all the pitching that is in camp now and we know Adam (sic) Harang and Arroyo will go north, do you put Affeldt in the rotation and if you take Cueto, who would be the odd man out between Fogg and Belisle or do you go with a 6 man rotation (Always nice to hear from Ray Knight) Jeff said that is going to be a tough question and if Volquez, Bailey and/or Cueto all make the rotation, what do you do with Belisle, Affeldt and Fogg? Long relief or send the kids to AAA and call them up if the vets fail. Jeff said he'd rather have too many options than not enough.

After commercial Paul said that the thing he likes about ST is that there is a lot of competition for a lot of spots. He asked Jeff if the season started tomorrow, which 5 would be in his rotation. Jeff said that puts Affeldt at a disadvantage because he wants to see him pitch 5 or 6 IP a game before he leaves camp. He said he'd take Harang, Arroyo and Belisle but Belisle would be on double secret probation. Then he would take Mad Dog and Cueto and he'd tell Homer if he wants to pitch in the big leagues he has to come up with a shorter breaking ball. Paul asked how Homer would feel about that. Jeff said he likes Homer and he has as much confidence and as much of a competitive edge as anyone on the team. Jeff said if Homer could come up with a breaking pitch that was somewhere between his curve and a slider, he could be very close to being an ace or the ace on this team. He likes his competitiveness but he can't get by with that curve.

The next caller asked about Homer's attitude. Jeff said that his attitude isn't necessarily a problem because he'd rather have someone who is fiery than someone who isn't. Jeff said it's a long season and the competitiveness is what keeps you going when you get knocked around. Jeff said he doesn't think he can pitch in the majors with what he has now but that's just his opinion.

This endeth the Reds Hot Stove League show report for 3-5-08. So let it be written. So let it be done.

WMR
03-05-2008, 09:43 PM
DOH!!

:doh:

KronoRed
03-05-2008, 10:05 PM
Thanks Chip

Superdude
03-05-2008, 10:35 PM
Cueto's getting some serious hype lately.

OnBaseMachine
03-05-2008, 10:36 PM
Cueto's getting some serious hype lately.

Except from the experts on this board. ;)

LINEDRIVER
03-05-2008, 10:37 PM
Yet another OUTSTANDING contribution from Chip.

KoryMac5
03-05-2008, 10:37 PM
I just get the feeling that the Reds have some good pieces to their puzzle but they don't have anybody who can figure out where they go.

Redhook
03-05-2008, 10:42 PM
Uh oh, does Marty have a little man crush on Corey? What does Hopper think about that. Remember, Marty, hell hath no fury like a Hopper scorned.

:D

Thanks Chip.

A lot of interesting competitions to look forward to in the next 3 weeks.

Highlifeman21
03-05-2008, 10:43 PM
hell hath no fury like a Hopper scorned

I'll believe that when I see that.


Marty thinks Cueto has passed Homer and he's never seen a guy who had a better arm, a better assortment of pitches and a better ability to throw strikes than Cueto. Marty said Homer may be his own worst enemy because of his attitude. He said Cueto's confidence is really high and Cueto feels he should pitch in the big leagues now. Paul asked Marty if he would take Cueto north over Homer. Marty said he would have told him at the beginning of ST that he expects him to be in the rotation when the season starts.


Hell may hath no fury like a Hopper scorned, but Hell's certainly frozen over now that I agree with the Poofy-Haired One on something.... Cueto > Homer. Homer probably has a bad attitude. I'd take Cueto North before Homer for 2008. I may need to find a comfortable place to sit after all that agreement with Franchester.




I'm not very comfortable with the notion that Volquez isn't a lock to make the team going North. We traded away a guy that was a lock to go North out of ST, I would have hoped we would have gotten a guy in return that equally would have been a lock to go North out of ST. But what do I know?


Thanks for the write-up, Chip.

reds44
03-05-2008, 10:55 PM
Not to toot my own horn (who am I kidding?), but I have been preaching Cueto over Bailey for awhile now. I was doing it before Homer ever pitched in Cincinnati. I just like Cueto's overall arsenal better then I do Homer's. There is absolutley no doubt that if both pitchers reach their full potential that Homer would be the better pitcher, but the odds of that happening aren't good at all.

It seems that Homer has attitude and control problems. Okay, he is a 21 year old kid. It's not like he has no chance of maturing and learning from his mistakes. There is no reason to give up on him after he has struggled some. He seems like one of those people who you need to hug instead of kick in the pants. If you kick him in the pants, he will just shutoff completely. If Dusty is all that he is built up to be as a "players manager", he will get Homer's head on straight.

His attitude problems can be fixed. I'm still worried about his ability to find the strikezone, though

pedro
03-06-2008, 01:07 AM
Marty believes Dusty wants to take the best 25 guys north. For instance, with Gonzo hurt, Dusty has been singing Adam Rosales' & Paul Janish's praises.

Love it.

KronoRed
03-06-2008, 01:11 AM
So if Castro makes the trip north we know whos head to put on the stake.

Jpup
03-06-2008, 01:44 AM
actions are louder than words. Dusty has been singing the praises of everyone this spring.

dougdirt
03-06-2008, 01:54 AM
So Jeff Brantley thinks Homer Bailey's plus plus curveball isn't likely good enough for the majors or located well enough to be called strikes (despite being the highest accounted for strikes pitch he had last year when he threw it for strikes 67% of the time in the majors)?

Stick to what you are good at Brantley.... whatever that is these days.

WMR
03-06-2008, 02:16 AM
So Jeff Brantley thinks Homer Bailey's plus plus curveball isn't likely good enough for the majors or located well enough to be called strikes (despite being the highest accounted for strikes pitch he had last year when he threw it for strikes 67% of the time in the majors)?

Stick to what you are good at Brantley.... whatever that is these days.

Drinking beer???

Boasting about his playing days???

Providing poor PBP???

Ron Madden
03-06-2008, 03:50 AM
Thanks Chip. :thumbup:

IMHO Jeff Brantley is terrible broadcaster.

I'd much rather listen to George Grande and Chris Welsh than to be stuck having to listen to Jeff Brantley.

icehole3
03-06-2008, 04:44 AM
So Jeff Brantley thinks Homer Bailey's plus plus curveball isn't likely good enough for the majors or located well enough to be called strikes (despite being the highest accounted for strikes pitch he had last year when he threw it for strikes 67% of the time in the majors)?

Stick to what you are good at Brantley.... whatever that is these days.

I agree, I think he's way to harsh on Bailey. If he gets his curve straightened out he'll become an ace??? Then how about we ease up a little and let the kid work his way up the rotation like every other starter in the world. If its OK for Harang to learn the ropes in the bigs why not Bailey? Bailey will adjust dont worry. Cowboy go back to sleep.

http://boards.bengals.com/images/drunk3.gif

red-in-la
03-06-2008, 05:24 AM
I agree, I think he's way to harsh on Bailey. If he gets his curve straightened out he'll become an ace??? Then how about we ease up a little and let the kid work his way up the rotation like every other starter in the world. If its OK for Harang to learn the ropes in the bigs why not Bailey? Bailey will adjust dont worry. Cowboy go back to sleep.

http://boards.bengals.com/images/drunk3.gif

It struck me when I read what Brantley said that Nolan Ryan's curveball very, very often bounced in front of the plate. His curveball was famous for how FAR it broke.

I don't know.....I love to watch Kerry Wood pitch because he has that quick, late breaking, and "short" curveball that I think Brantley is talking about. But does every fireballer have to have that short "hook" of a curve? I have no idea.

cumberlandreds
03-06-2008, 08:17 AM
Thanks Chip! Lots of good info in that show. I can see Dusty and Krivsky seriously butting heads about who take north with them. You can't helped but like Dusty's approached about taking the best 25 north with you. I also can see them using this quad strain by Bruce as the reason (excuse) for starting him out in AAA. I don't think he will be in AAA long though.

princeton
03-06-2008, 08:44 AM
Brantley really said that Hamilton was an old 27? (I think that he's 26 btw).

I love it. One of the reporters in town has really got to get Cast or Kriv to state that Hamilton was traded because he was an "old 26". Bill DeWitt needs company.

dfs
03-06-2008, 09:37 AM
Jeff Brantley called in. Paul chided him for his prediction that Bruce would be starting on Opening Day. Jeff said that with Bruce's injury and the feeling that Freel and Hopper aren't adequate defensively they needed to bring someone like Patterson in.

When did Norris Hopper become a problem in the field? I'm honestly curious. I was under the impression that was the GOOD part of his game. When did that change? I've been here all winter and we've gone circles around the bunts and the fact that he's not going to be a plus with the stick, but I don't remember anybody here complaining that he couldn't cover center. (And it's not like we're shy about complaining about stuff like that.)

If Dusty brought in Patterson because he didn't think Hopper could cover center then Norris' 15 minutes of fame are over.

As always, thanks Chip.

BRM
03-06-2008, 09:48 AM
I think it's been the general consensus all along that Hopper is average at best in CF. I don't remember anyone on this board touting him as a plus defender.

Az Red
03-06-2008, 11:41 AM
Is anyone singing praises for Homer? (No Simpsons jokes!)

acredsfan
03-06-2008, 12:04 PM
I would love to see Krivsky and Baker butt heads over who to take north. At least we would no longer have a puppet for a manager. The question is will Krivsky take Baker's opinions into consideration?

gm
03-06-2008, 12:54 PM
So Jeff Brantley thinks Homer Bailey's plus plus curveball isn't likely good enough for the majors or located well enough to be called strikes.

This is less about Bailey and more about the ML umps, IMO. I've seen pitchers with yackers like Bailey throw a 12-6 curve over the heart of the plate and get a ball call on numerous occasions. If a pitch is between the hollow of the knees and 1/2 way between the armpits/belt at any point of the plate (front edge to back point) it's a strike. But since it drops so much through the zone, the ump will give the benefit of the doubt to the hitter.

My interpretation of the Cowboy's comments was that hey, the umps aren't going to call that big hook a strike consistently, so Bailey will have to adjust or he'll regularly be behind in the count

Chip R
03-06-2008, 01:22 PM
This is less about Bailey and more about the ML umps, IMO. I've seen pitchers with yackers like Bailey throw a 12-6 curve over the heart of the plate and get a ball call on numerous occasions. If a pitch is between the hollow of the knees and 1/2 way between the armpits/belt at any point of the plate (front edge to back point) it's a strike. But since it drops so much through the zone, the ump will give the benefit of the doubt to the hitter.

My interpretation of the Cowboy's comments was that hey, the umps aren't going to call that big hook a strike consistently, so Bailey will have to adjust or he'll regularly be behind in the count

That's what it sounded like to me. It isn't that his curve isn't good enough, it's too good. Another thing to remember that Brantley didn't mention is that young pitchers tend to get squeezed by umpires on pitches that are close. Homer may eventually get the close calls but I'm sure he's going to get squeezed for a while.

gm
03-06-2008, 01:24 PM
That's what it sounded like to me. It isn't that his curve isn't good enough, it's too good. Another thing to remember that Brantley didn't mention is that young pitchers tend to get squeezed by umpires on pitches that are close. Homer may eventually get the close calls but I'm sure he's going to get squeezed for a while.

Yeah, just try dropping a curve and getting a strike 3 call on Pujols

I dare ya

BCubb2003
03-06-2008, 01:38 PM
I get the feeling RedsZone will have to create a separate forum area for Dusty's comments. He's going to talk a lot, almost none of it based on the latest statistical analysis, and people are going to run with it.

Matt700wlw
03-06-2008, 05:55 PM
Marty said he thinks Wayne has preconceived ideas about certain players and no matter what they do they will open the year in AAA.

That's dumb. I believe it, though.

RedsManRick
03-06-2008, 05:59 PM
That's dumb. I believe it, though.

And the opposite is to judge the player's based solely on how they do in ST?

I seriously doubt that anybody not worth of a 25 man roster spot on Oct 1 suddenly is on Apr 1 the following season. If a guy was on the border, sure, ST can help push him up or down. But the vast majority of guys had their opening day 2008 destination set by the end of 2007. Given the nature of spring training -- partially competitive games, working on certain skills, playing against wide ranges of competition, regaining form, etc., it's hardly a good judge of talent relative to the previous season(s) worth of work.

Matt700wlw
03-06-2008, 06:02 PM
And the opposite is to judge the player's based solely on how they do in ST?

Bruce earned it last year.....but people say you can't judge him entirely on his AAA numbers either...

What exactly are we supposed to use to determine if he's ready or not if neither of these two are a viable option?

Vada Pinson Fan
03-06-2008, 07:31 PM
I think it's been the general consensus all along that Hopper is average at best in CF. I don't remember anyone on this board touting him as a plus defender.


Well then let me be the first. Norris Hopper since joining the Reds in 2006 (now get this) has made all of ONE error while playing all three outfield spots. Last year as a CF'er, Hopper had 133 PO's over 408.1 innings played and committed that one error. At all other times he has been flawless.

To me, Norris Hopper obviously has the speed to beat out all the bunts and thus has the necessary speed and glove to cover CF. I think it's a case of Baker knowing Patterson far better than he knows Hopper, or Freel for that matter. But to say Hopper is "average at best in CF" is wrong.

Nice job as always Chip!!! Thanks so much!!!

RedsManRick
03-06-2008, 10:20 PM
Bruce earned it last year.....but people say you can't judge him entirely on his AAA numbers either...

What exactly are we supposed to use to determine if he's ready or not if neither of these two are a viable option?

Judge on a player's entire body of work. I agree, Bruce's body of work suggest he's likely ready to rock and roll.

*BaseClogger*
03-06-2008, 10:25 PM
Well then let me be the first. Norris Hopper since joining the Reds in 2006 (now get this) has made all of ONE error while playing all three outfield spots. Last year as a CF'er, Hopper had 133 PO's over 408.1 innings played and committed that one error. At all other times he has been flawless.

To me, Norris Hopper obviously has the speed to beat out all the bunts and thus has the necessary speed and glove to cover CF. I think it's a case of Baker knowing Patterson far better than he knows Hopper, or Freel for that matter. But to say Hopper is "average at best in CF" is wrong.

Nice job as always Chip!!! Thanks so much!!!

Perhaps he put arm into consideration? :dunno:

Highlifeman21
03-06-2008, 10:39 PM
Perhaps he put arm into consideration? :dunno:

Arm doesn't factor into the equation for me as much as taking scenic routes to balls.

Freel and Hopper both suffer from the same defensive issues, namely they don't take direct routes to balls, and often times they'll break the wrong way on balls. Thankfully, they have the speed to make up for their interesting routes taken to balls.

Speed is a great thing to keep a below average defender as an average defender. Take away their speed, and yikes.