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View Full Version : Keith Law is truly an idiot



NorrisHopper30
03-05-2008, 11:51 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3276734
I completely agree that Edwin will be a breakout player this year..but read this:


Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
I predicted a breakout for Encarnacion in 2007, and he responded with a putrid April and a trip to the minors. But after his return, he played more like he did in 2006. Encarnacion can hit, and will hit, both for average and for power. Given his home park in Cincinnati, he should have a 30-homer season or two before he reaches free agency.

His main trouble is defense; he consistently has been among the worst third basemen in baseball since his call-up, and there's little reason to believe he'll ever be average. Either the Reds will have to accept his poor defense at third or consider moving him to left field, assuming they decline Ken Griffey Jr.'s $16.5 million option for 2009.

1) He had STELLAR defense after his call up.
2)The only thing stopping Edwin from being an above average defense men is his arm's inconsistency.
3) What?

kaldaniels
03-06-2008, 12:26 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2008/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=3276734
I completely agree that Edwin will be a breakout player this year..but read this:



1) He had STELLAR defense after his call up.
2)The only thing stopping Edwin from being an above average defense men is his arm's inconsistency.
3) What?

I think the call up refers to the time period from his first cup of coffee on...I'm giving the benefit of the doubt.

757690
03-06-2008, 02:07 AM
I think the call up refers to the time period from his first cup of coffee on...I'm giving the benefit of the doubt.

Even if you give him the benefit of the doubt on that, it still is not true. His fielding was greatly improved last year, and if Keith Law and done just a bit of research, he would have found that out.
EE's errors went from 25 to 16, and his fielding percentage was almost exactly league average, and his range was better than league average.

Law usually knows his stuff, it's his opinions that are usually way off base. This time he didn't even know his stuff.

Degenerate39
03-06-2008, 07:08 AM
Law just hates the Reds. Best thing to do is to ignore it and don't read his stuff.

Newman4
03-06-2008, 09:45 AM
EE ranked 9th in all of MLB in Zone Rating. Why could he "not ever be average" anyway? Does Law know about some physical reason why he can't cut it? :rolleyes:

Jefferson24
03-06-2008, 09:54 AM
His defense was acceptable last year and if he follows that up this year with a similar performance he will be fine. If he can hit as well this year as he did the second half of last year we will have an above average 3rd baseman.

I think Edwin is a real asset and at his price we cant ask for any better. Hopefully he will continue to improve. I have a hard time seeing him as below average now.

HalMorrisRules
03-06-2008, 10:36 AM
Law just hates the Reds. Best thing to do is to ignore it and don't read his stuff.

If you want to go back and check my posting history, I have made many critical posts about Keith Law and his treatment towards the Reds. But in retrospect, I believe he is overly critical of almost ALL teams. He destroyed the Mariners over the Bedard trade for example. He doesnt hate the Reds, otherwise he wouldnt have said this in his most recent ESPN chat:

Adam Mishawaka, IN: What do you think the reds chances are of winning the NL Central?

SportsNation Keith Law: I was asked on Toronto's The FAN radio station last night about sleeper teams. (Richard Griffin was on as well and he named, among others, the Astros and White Sox.) I don't see a lot of sleeper potential around the majors, because most of the teams that weren't good last year won't be good this year. However, if I had to pick one 2007 non-contender to potentially surprise in 2008 from each league, I'd say the Reds and probably Toronto, although the latter's schedule hurts them. The Reds aren't as talented as the Brewers or Cubs, but the division's weak and they have some young guys coming who could push them forward sooner than expected.

mound_patrol
03-06-2008, 10:41 AM
If you want to go back and check my posting history, I have made many critical posts about Keith Law and his treatment towards the Reds. But in retrospect, I believe he is overly critical of almost ALL teams. He destroyed the Mariners over the Bedard trade for example. He doesnt hate the Reds, otherwise he wouldnt have said this in his most recent ESPN chat:

Adam Mishawaka, IN: What do you think the reds chances are of winning the NL Central?

SportsNation Keith Law: I was asked on Toronto's The FAN radio station last night about sleeper teams. (Richard Griffin was on as well and he named, among others, the Astros and White Sox.) I don't see a lot of sleeper potential around the majors, because most of the teams that weren't good last year won't be good this year. However, if I had to pick one 2007 non-contender to potentially surprise in 2008 from each league, I'd say the Reds and probably Toronto, although the latter's schedule hurts them. The Reds aren't as talented as the Brewers or Cubs, but the division's weak and they have some young guys coming who could push them forward sooner than expected.

That's nice and all, but he still said Harang was only a number 3 on another teams staff. After that statement I refuse to listen to anything he has to say.

texasdave
03-06-2008, 11:37 AM
This link is from an excellent website on the Reds. I recommend that every Reds' fan reads it.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3

The website is www.jinaz-reds.blogspot.com. He is a big EdE supporter. So the final numbers for Encarnacion are telling. Edwin fielded at a below-average level in 2007. Probably a well below-average level.

Here are ESPN's numbers for NL 3rd basemen in 2007.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=81&sortColumn=zoneRating

They have Encarnacion as 10th out of 13 in FPCT. 10th out of 13 in Range Factor. And 7th out of 13 in Zone Rating.

Here is a link from Baseball Prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/encared01.php

It shows EdE as being -11 Fielding Runs Above Average.

I have yet to see any fielding evaluation that shows Encarnacion as being an average (or better) fielder. If someone has one would they please post it?

Encarnacion may have the potential to be an above-average third baseman. I don't see how anyone can reasonably make the claim that he is there yet.

NorrisHopper30
03-06-2008, 11:59 AM
This link is from an excellent website on the Reds. I recommend that every Reds' fan reads it.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3

The website is www.jinaz-reds.blogspot.com. He is a big EdE supporter. So the final numbers for Encarnacion are telling. Edwin fielded at a below-average level in 2007. Probably a well below-average level.

Here are ESPN's numbers for NL 3rd basemen in 2007.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=81&sortColumn=zoneRating

They have Encarnacion as 10th out of 13 in FPCT. 10th out of 13 in Range Factor. And 7th out of 13 in Zone Rating.

Here is a link from Baseball Prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/encared01.php

It shows EdE as being -11 Fielding Runs Above Average.

I have yet to see any fielding evaluation that shows Encarnacion as being an average (or better) fielder. If someone has one would they please post it?

Encarnacion may have the potential to be an above-average third baseman. I don't see how anyone can reasonably make the claim that he is there yet.

After he came back from AAA he was phenomenal.

UGADaddy
03-06-2008, 12:36 PM
This link is from an excellent website on the Reds. I recommend that every Reds' fan reads it.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=3

The website is www.jinaz-reds.blogspot.com. He is a big EdE supporter. So the final numbers for Encarnacion are telling. Edwin fielded at a below-average level in 2007. Probably a well below-average level.

Here are ESPN's numbers for NL 3rd basemen in 2007.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=8&season=2007&seasonType=2&split=81&sortColumn=zoneRating

They have Encarnacion as 10th out of 13 in FPCT. 10th out of 13 in Range Factor. And 7th out of 13 in Zone Rating.

Here is a link from Baseball Prospectus.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/encared01.php

It shows EdE as being -11 Fielding Runs Above Average.

I have yet to see any fielding evaluation that shows Encarnacion as being an average (or better) fielder. If someone has one would they please post it?

Encarnacion may have the potential to be an above-average third baseman. I don't see how anyone can reasonably make the claim that he is there yet.

Thank you someone for bringing some actual, hard stats to the conversation. I hope EdE does well this year. I think he'll be a fairly strong 6 or 7 hitter, but to say he's going to be an awesome fielder is highly optimistic thinking. The truth of the matter is that he has merely decent range and fielding ability coupled with a wild arm...

texasdave
03-06-2008, 12:37 PM
After he came back from AAA he was phenomenal.

You need to set your standards a little higher. Once again from Justin's excellent website let's take it month-by-month.

May's evaluation: 3B: Ugh. Here's about a third of the Reds' struggles. For all the fuss about Eddie's tendency to make errors, those only are knocking his UZR rating down by two runs. The rest is bad range. Horrible range, in fact. Eddie is currently last among all third basemen in both his total rating of -9 runs and his range rating of -7 runs. He's on pace to smash his -20 runs rating of last season.

I really do think he's better than that--he did post a very positive UZR his first season with the Reds (2005). And he's young, so he can improve. But we can't wait forever. Fortunately, my impressions are that he's been better since his return from AAA--Marty certainly was pleased with him during the last home stand, and he's about as down on Encarnacion as anyone can be. I hope he can get himself to be at least an average 3B by the time 2008 rolls around.

Nothing much to go on here except Justin and Marty feel EdE might be getting a little better.

June's evaluation: Eddie Encarnacion's -13 plays total looks ugly (it's 4th-worst in baseball...that's better that last, however!!), but the interesting thing to me is that his out of zone rating is actually (slightly) above average. I think we're seeing primarily an effect of errors on the +-Plays value. The fact that his OOZ totals are about average is very encouraging. I'd love to know what his June splits were, but I guess we'll have to wait until July for that. I'm hoping for improvement.

Treading water at best here it looks like. Let's see what July brings.

July's evaluation: Not Lookin' So Good:

After UZR rated Eddie Encarnacion as well above average in June and early July, I'd hoped that he might have turned the corner. Despite the fact that these data overlap with those UZR data in time frame, however, they show Eddie having missed nearly 6 plays that an average third baseman would make in just a month's time. Given his struggles with the bat, this is disappointing--the reality is that Eddie may have hurt the Reds more than any other player last month. I will note, however, that we could also be seeing some differences between UZR and the Hardball Times' RZR... We'll see what UZR says next time MGL releases those data.

Encarnacion takes a step backwards in July.

August's evaluation: Finally, Encarnacion may have shown some improvement, costing the Reds "just" two runs compared to roughly 5 runs in July. I continue to wonder if the positive UZR split we saw earlier this year was an abberation, or if he really is capable of playing at least average defense at the hot corner in future seasons. If his defense doesn't improve, he's going to have to be a monster of an offensive player to have value...and honestly, while I think he can be a fine hitter, I'm not confident that he'll ever be a great hitter.

The wording is kind of tricky. EdE showed some improvement, but was still below average.

Year-End evaluation: In contrast, the Reds' worst fielders were Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Edwin Encarnacion, and Scott Hatteberg.

If Edwin improved at all over the second half of the season - which is questionable - it was only marginally. Even if he did he was still below average and certainly not phenomenal.

SMcGavin
03-06-2008, 04:34 PM
That's nice and all, but he still said Harang was only a number 3 on another teams staff. After that statement I refuse to listen to anything he has to say.

I think the quote was actually that Harang would be a "3 or 4" on a lot of other stuffs. So even worse than you remember it.

I don't think it's that Law's an idiot, he's just prone to hyperbole and is stubborn. For example with the Harang thing, he made a ridiculous statement that showed he probably didn't know that much about Aaron Harang (somewhat understandable, not a lot of national media did at the time). So when Reds fans emailed in and called him out on the statement, he should have just said "I was exaggerating before, but I don't think Harang is a true ace" or something like that. Instead he stood by a statement that was clearly not accurate. I'm not a big fan of his stuff but he did rise pretty high in Toronto's organization I thought, so I don't think he's an idiot.

TeamSelig
03-06-2008, 05:02 PM
If your stat shows that Encarnacion has horrible range, then you might as well toss that stat out of the window as it loses all of its credibility. Fielding stats are about 90% useless, too many random variables.

mound_patrol
03-06-2008, 08:30 PM
I think the quote was actually that Harang would be a "3 or 4" on a lot of other stuffs. So even worse than you remember it.

I don't think it's that Law's an idiot, he's just prone to hyperbole and is stubborn. For example with the Harang thing, he made a ridiculous statement that showed he probably didn't know that much about Aaron Harang (somewhat understandable, not a lot of national media did at the time). So when Reds fans emailed in and called him out on the statement, he should have just said "I was exaggerating before, but I don't think Harang is a true ace" or something like that. Instead he stood by a statement that was clearly not accurate. I'm not a big fan of his stuff but he did rise pretty high in Toronto's organization I thought, so I don't think he's an idiot.

I agree, he definitly comes across as being very stubborn. He also seems to have some rift against the Reds as he hardly has a positive thing to say about the organization. Maybe we turned down a trade he proposed back in the day and now he's trying to stick it to us.