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Kc61
03-11-2008, 12:49 PM
Only watched a bit last night on the computer, but this guy can play some shortstop.

Assuming Gonzo starts season on DL and Castro is not ready, do folks see Janish as a viable option for the big team?

He is obviously challenged offensively and could use another year to work on his hitting, but he seems very good out there in the infield.

puca
03-11-2008, 12:55 PM
Only watched a bit last night on the computer, but this guy can play some shortstop.

Assuming Gonzo starts season on DL and Castro is not ready, do folks see Janish as a viable option for the big team?

He is obviously challenged offensively and could use another year to work on his hitting, but he seems very good out there in the infield.


I'd take Janish over Castro at his healthiest. Neither will give offense. Janish will give real defense.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 12:56 PM
I'd take Janish over Castro at his healthiest.which is not a ringing endorsement.

BRM
03-11-2008, 12:59 PM
I'd love to have a real plus defender at SS, even with a weak stick. However, can the offense sustain Janish, Patterson, and Ross/Javy/Bako all in the lineup together?

flyer85
03-11-2008, 01:00 PM
I'd love to have a real plus defender at SS, even with a weak stick. However, can the offense sustain Janish, Patterson, and Ross/Javy/Bako all in the lineup together?
no

Benihana
03-11-2008, 01:02 PM
Patterson will be better than you guys think. You'll see.

BRM
03-11-2008, 01:04 PM
Patterson will be better than you guys think. You'll see.

I hope so. I really like his defense in CF so I hope his bat is good enough to play regularly against RHP's. At least until Bruce arrives.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-11-2008, 01:05 PM
I'd love to have a real plus defender at SS, even with a weak stick. However, can the offense sustain Janish, Patterson, and Ross/Javy/Bako all in the lineup together?

If Harang is pitching? Yes. That's about it.

kheidg-
03-11-2008, 01:06 PM
I'd prefer Patterson as a 4th outfielder at best getting somewhere between 200-300 at bats. Not sure if that is logical with Dusty as our manager, however.

Janish over Castro? YES anyday of the week.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 01:07 PM
I hope so. a lineup with Gonzo/janish, pick any catcher, Patterson and BP is going to be seriously OBP challenged and have problems scoring runs.

BRM
03-11-2008, 01:07 PM
I don't think it's Janish or Castro. It's more likely Janish or Keppinger.

BRM
03-11-2008, 01:09 PM
a lineup with Gonzo/janish, pick any catcher, Patterson and BP is going to be seriously OBP challenged and have problems scoring runs.

So you have to sacrifice defense for offense somewhere. Where do you do it, SS or CF? Bruce or Patterson? Kepp or Janish/Gonzo?

flyer85
03-11-2008, 01:09 PM
For this team to be able to score enough runs
1) Keppinger needs to play a lot of SS
2) Bruce needs to play a lot of CF

Will M
03-11-2008, 01:12 PM
1. Janisch's D last night was VERY impressive

2. Upgrade the catching position using our 'spare parts' - Freel, Hat, Coffey, etc. That way you can better justify a weak stick strong glove shortstop and/or centerfielder

3. Assuming the Reds front office won't trade Griffey then use Patterson as the 4th outfielder and late inning defensive replacement ( with Griffey moving to the bench and Bruce moving to right )

flyer85
03-11-2008, 01:23 PM
So you have to sacrifice defense for offense somewhere. Where do you do it, SS or CF? Bruce or Patterson? Kepp or Janish/Gonzo?it's a tradeoff everywhere. A lot of stats take both offense and defense into account. The simple fact is that OBP drives runs scored and the Reds have will likely have 3 guys sporting sub 300 OBPs if Gonzo is at SS and Patterson in CF. That is a recipe for trouble even if they are playing GG defense. See the 2007 Astros with defensive stalwarts Ausmus and Everett.

RedsManRick
03-11-2008, 01:38 PM
It takes a lot of extra grounders to add up to 300 points of OPS.

As far as I'm concerned: Gonzalez > Keppinger > Janish > Dusty Baker > Castro. But if starting Janish means we get to cut Castro, then by all means Janish.

Let's keep in mind than Janish hit .221/.278/.317 in AAA and .244/.358/.330 in AA last year. He basically is what Juan Castro used to be.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-11-2008, 01:43 PM
Janish is Juan Castro with a better glove at 40% of the cost.

fearofpopvol1
03-11-2008, 01:53 PM
That's true about Castro, but unless another team will take him, I don't see the Reds just blowing a mill. One can dream, though.

If Gonzo is down, I think Keppinger should be the starter and Janish the backup.

princeton
03-11-2008, 01:55 PM
it's too bad that nobody in his right mind would throw Janish a ball. He has clogged the bases at lower levels.

*BaseClogger*
03-11-2008, 03:23 PM
Janish is simply not going to hit major league pitching... His defense cannot make up for the difference in OPS between he and Keppinger...

camisadelgolf
03-11-2008, 03:33 PM
Paul Janish is certainly no Jeff Keppinger (who is probably very overrated by Reds fans right now, but nonetheless), but he's willing to take a walk (unlike Castro) and plays above average defense (also, more arguably, unlike Juan Castro). Personally, I don't mind the idea of the two main bench infielders of the Reds' future being Keppinger (the offensive specialist) and Janish (the defensive specialist).

Chip R
03-11-2008, 03:38 PM
Personally, I don't mind the idea of the two main bench infielders of the Reds' future being Keppinger (the offensive specialist) and Janish (the defensive specialist).


If one believes that Votto cannot hit lefties, you could stick Kepp at 1st against lefties and Janish at SS and the rest of the time play Kepp at short and Votto at 1st.

*BaseClogger*
03-11-2008, 03:49 PM
Paul Janish is certainly no Jeff Keppinger (who is probably very overrated by Reds fans right now, but nonetheless)

Reds fans aren't the only ones in love with Jeff Keppinger:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/reds_signed_phillips/

that is a good read I should have posted back when Phillips was re-signed. The post isn't very long, but the comments section gives you a good feel for how outsiders feel about the Reds...

RedsManRick
03-11-2008, 04:06 PM
I fail to see any difference between Keppinger and Freddy Sanchez other than opportunity. Those two are scarily similar.

wheels
03-11-2008, 04:23 PM
Dude, Keppinger's a baseclogger. Look at that OBP.

Chip R
03-11-2008, 04:36 PM
Dude, Keppinger's a baseclogger. Look at that OBP.


Channeling Dusty now, are we? ;)

cincyinco
03-11-2008, 05:04 PM
Paul Janish is certainly no Jeff Keppinger (who is probably very overrated by Reds fans right now, but nonetheless), but he's willing to take a walk (unlike Castro) and plays above average defense (also, more arguably, unlike Juan Castro). Personally, I don't mind the idea of the two main bench infielders of the Reds' future being Keppinger (the offensive specialist) and Janish (the defensive specialist).

I think this scenario is ideal until Alex Gonzalez is back. Then Janish becomes the late inning replacement off the bench sometimes, ala Castro. Only now, you can get rid of Castro.

WMR
03-11-2008, 08:14 PM
If it was up to me, I'd write Janish's name into the line-up with a sharpie, bat him 8th, and forget about him.

reds44
03-11-2008, 08:19 PM
For this team to be able to score enough runs
1) Keppinger needs to play a lot of SS
2) Bruce needs to play a lot of CF
Yep.

The Reds weren't as good offensively last year as people think they were. I don't know if we can afford having Janish and the catcher spot in the lineup.

Bruce and Keepinger should both be starting up the middle. If you carry Janish as a defensive replacement, okay.

Falls City Beer
03-11-2008, 08:20 PM
I'd love to have a real plus defender at SS, even with a weak stick. However, can the offense sustain Janish, Patterson, and Ross/Javy/Bako all in the lineup together?

Yeah.

Reds1
03-11-2008, 08:23 PM
I don't mind starts by Keppinger, but ultimately this team is best with Gonz back at SS.
As far as CF I don't know. Bruce looks like the real deal to me, but I'd like to see him play a few more times. I don't really like him in the leadoff. I can't see the reds sitting speedsters Hopper, Free, and Patterson everyday - well, I guess there's no way they all make it. Going to be interseting. Makes it fun though.

Patrick Bateman
03-11-2008, 08:23 PM
I appreciate Janish's defensive abilities, but Keppinger is such a superior hitter, i really don't see how Janish could close that gap with his defensive abilities. Firstly, I think Janish's defense has been overrated. Since he was drafted he was supposed to be in Adam Everett's class of fielding, but I have trouble buying that considering that Janish has never been known for his speed. He's obviously got a great glove and a terrific fielder on the balls he does get to, but I'm led to believe that the lack of top flight speed prevents Janish from being a truly elite fielder... ie. the level he'd have to get to to dwarf Kepp's abilities with the bat.

Now I think Kepp is in line for a bit of a regression hitting wise, partially the reason why I'm dead set at keeping Gonzalez as the starter when he is healthy enough to play, but either way, Kepp should have a pretty strong ability to get on base. That will be badly needed with Ross and probably Patterson/Hopper/Freel getting regular spots in the line-up. The offense would take a major hit with Janish grabbing regular at-bats in the meantime as well. As others have noted, Janish has been an abysmal hitter in the upper minors, and as such would get throughly dominated up here. I like his patience up there, but even with that his bat wont make it work. To me, he's the guy that should be able to provide what Juan Castro supposedly does in the long term, but nothing more.

We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

Reds1
03-11-2008, 08:28 PM
We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

I really don't see how anyone could dispute this. Now if we have a lead and you want to bring Janish in the 8th, 9th inning, but I"m not big on doing that. Or an emergency utility guy, but I just don't see it happening. Free will be supersub at 3B and 2B and Kepp at SS and 1B against lefties. That's what I think.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 09:04 PM
I really don't see how anyone could dispute this. I assume you have data that suggests that's the case.

Reds1
03-11-2008, 10:04 PM
I assume you have data that suggests that's the case.

Look at his stats. He's never hit. You can't start in the major leagues at SS and not be able to put the bat on the ball. I'm not seeing it. I'd love to see him catch fire, but Dusty is a vet loving guy and this team needs a decent righty lower in the line up that Gonz and Kepp can provide. Just because anouncers say this guy is great defensively doesn't make it so. Does he have the range and the arm that will change games. Now, I'm not a coach or been to spring training. I've seen one game and only have raw stats to go by and I don't see how anyone can say this kid has a chance to start over Keppinger or even make this team.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 10:13 PM
Look at his stats. He's never hit. actually I agree, I was hoping someone else would do the legwork to quantify the argument. I could go to BP and use PECOTA ...

Janish has a +4 FRAA and Keppinger as a -2. Not anywhere near large enough to offset the likely difference in offense(VORP 22.9 versus 7.3

Cedric
03-11-2008, 10:22 PM
actually I agree, I was hoping someone else would do the legwork to quantify the argument. I could go to BP and use PECOTA ...

Janish has a +4 FRAA and Keppinger as a -2. Not anywhere near large enough to offset the likely difference in offense(VORP 22.9 versus 7.3

That's a limited outlook, IMO. Are you not counting the effect a much better defensive SS has on the pitching staff as a whole? There are some things in baseball that can't be quantified in a nifty little stat. Confidence in their defense is a huge advantage for pitchers, IMO. Is that enough for Janish to be the main man at SS? I'm not sure. I'm just saying there is more to it than just VORP.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 10:30 PM
That's a limited outlook, IMO. Are you not counting the effect a much better defensive SS has on the pitching staff as a whole? There are some things in baseball that can't be quantified in a nifty little stat. Confidence in their defense is a huge advantage for pitchers, IMO. Is that enough for Janish to be the main man at SS? I'm not sure. I'm just saying there is more to it than just VORP.VORP is strictly an offensive stat, that's why I also used FRAA which attempts to quantify defense ... could have used WARP. Defense is hard to objectively quantify but PECOTA doesn't think Janish is anything more than slighty above average and it sees Gonzo as average, and Keppinger as slightly below average.

Cedric
03-11-2008, 10:57 PM
VORP is strictly an offensive stat, that's why I also used FRAA which attempts to quantify defense ... could have used WARP. Defense is hard to objectively quantify but PECOTA doesn't think Janish is anything more than slighty above average and it sees Gonzo as average, and Keppinger as slightly below average.

But none of these stats speak for how Janish might change the confidence level of pitchers. It's hard enough pitching in the major leagues, something like confidence in the defense behind you is huge.

flyer85
03-11-2008, 10:59 PM
But none of these stats speak for how Janish might change the confidence level of pitchers. and no stat ever will. The best pitchers are the ones with the ability to block out external conditions and focus on the things they can control.

Cedric
03-11-2008, 11:26 PM
and no stat ever will. The best pitchers are the ones with the ability to block out external conditions and focus on the things they can control.

Problem is we know the Reds don't have those pitchers. They need any help they can get. Both mental and with players playing behind them. I can only imagine what I would be thinking if I had to turn around and see Felipe Lopez at SS behind me. :eek:

Keppinger isn't that bad luckily.

M2
03-11-2008, 11:50 PM
I appreciate Janish's defensive abilities, but Keppinger is such a superior hitter, i really don't see how Janish could close that gap with his defensive abilities. Firstly, I think Janish's defense has been overrated. Since he was drafted he was supposed to be in Adam Everett's class of fielding, but I have trouble buying that considering that Janish has never been known for his speed. He's obviously got a great glove and a terrific fielder on the balls he does get to, but I'm led to believe that the lack of top flight speed prevents Janish from being a truly elite fielder... ie. the level he'd have to get to to dwarf Kepp's abilities with the bat.

Now I think Kepp is in line for a bit of a regression hitting wise, partially the reason why I'm dead set at keeping Gonzalez as the starter when he is healthy enough to play, but either way, Kepp should have a pretty strong ability to get on base. That will be badly needed with Ross and probably Patterson/Hopper/Freel getting regular spots in the line-up. The offense would take a major hit with Janish grabbing regular at-bats in the meantime as well. As others have noted, Janish has been an abysmal hitter in the upper minors, and as such would get throughly dominated up here. I like his patience up there, but even with that his bat wont make it work. To me, he's the guy that should be able to provide what Juan Castro supposedly does in the long term, but nothing more.

We'll need the offense with Kepp, and even with the defensive loss he is easily more valuable than Janish IMO.

What AK said. Janish, literally, might be a .600 OPS bat. You just can't put that in a starting lineup.

Cedric
03-11-2008, 11:52 PM
What AK said. Janish, literally, might be a .600 OPS bat. You just can't put that in a starting lineup.

Agreed. I haven't been able to find his career numbers. Any chance you have them?

*BaseClogger*
03-11-2008, 11:54 PM
Year Team Lg Age Org. Level Pos Ln G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO HBP IBB SH SF DP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Billings Pio 21 Cin Rk ss 66 205 39 54 11 0 2 22 7 3 45 45 5 0 7 1 2 .263 .406 .346 752
2005 Dayton Midw 22 Cin A ss 55 208 30 51 10 2 5 29 5 2 29 38 5 2 8 4 1 .245 .346 .385 731
2006 Dayton Midw 23 Cin A ss 26 98 19 39 6 0 5 18 0 0 7 10 1 0 0 2 0 .398 .435 .612 1047
Sarasota FSL 23 Cin A+ ss 91 336 53 93 17 2 9 55 8 2 38 40 6 0 7 7 8 .277 .354 .420 774
Chattga Sou 23 Cin AA ss 4 15 1 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 .267 .313 .333 646
2007 Chattga Sou 24 Cin AA ss 88 324 46 79 21 2 1 20 10 3 50 54 9 0 5 3 5 .244 .358 .330 688
Louisville IL 24 Cin AAA ss 55 199 20 44 8 1 3 19 2 0 14 31 2 1 11 1 7 .221 .278 .317 595

Minor League Totals - 4 Season(s) 385 1385 208 364 74 7 25 165 32 10 184 223 28 3 38 18 24 .263 .357 .381 738 --

Cedric
03-12-2008, 12:00 AM
You might as well try and sign Ozzie Smith if you want Janish out there then. That's just amazingly bad.

M2
03-12-2008, 12:01 AM
Agreed. I haven't been able to find his career numbers. Any chance you have them?

*BaseClogger* posted the numbers, but The Baseball Cube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/) provides quick and easy reference any time you're hunting for minor league numbers.

*BaseClogger*
03-12-2008, 12:06 AM
sorry to all that it is so hard to read those stats...

Steve4192
03-12-2008, 08:23 AM
sorry to all that it is so hard to read those stats...

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/J/Paul-Janish.shtml

dfs
03-12-2008, 09:48 AM
sorry to all that it is so hard to read those stats...

No need to apologize for doing a good thing. The Cube is a great resource, but it's nice to have the numbers here.

Looking at Janish's line, last year he split time between AA and AA and as a 24 year old put up a 680 ops in AA. His OBP was heavily inflated by walks meaning that it's likely to get worse against better pitching since he doesn't have enough power to make anybody regret throwing him strikes. To make matters worse, he struck out at a rate that looks a lot like Adam Dunn. (Which again doesn't bode well developmentally.) Clearly he can pick it, but at this point Juan Castro will likely out-hit him.

This is Janish's first year on the 40 man roster and he appears to be on the Chris Dickerson career path. he needs to take a step forward or hope for a long string of injuries to get any real time on the 25 man roster. Reporters love him because he's easy to talk to and not a total tool.

Cedric
03-12-2008, 10:43 AM
*BaseClogger* posted the numbers, but The Baseball Cube (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/) provides quick and easy reference any time you're hunting for minor league numbers.

I couldn't find them on the cube. Weird.

Maybe I spelled his name wrong.

M2
03-12-2008, 10:44 AM
I couldn't find them on the cube. Weird.

Maybe I spelled his name wrong.

Type it standard - Paul Janish - rather than last name first - Janish, Paul.

lollipopcurve
03-12-2008, 11:01 AM
Janish's good OBP rates -- and the fact he missed half a year with injury -- say to me that he should not be dismissed out of hand just yet. If his defense is truly above average, then I think he should remain in consideration as a candidate for the SS job in 2009. Preprequisite: 400-500 ABs in Louisville. Meanwhile, for Jose Castro: 400-500 ABs in Chattanooga.

I wouldn't expect the team to find good trades for both a SS and a catcher -- if they can, great. But I think they have a better chance in-house with Janish/Castro than they do with Hanigan/Tatum/etc.

Steve4192
03-12-2008, 11:33 AM
Janish's good OBP rates -- and the fact he missed half a year with injury -- say to me that he should not be dismissed out of hand just yet. If his defense is truly above average, then I think he should remain in consideration as a candidate for the SS job in 2009.

Meh.

That sub-400 slugging percentage in the minors tells me he should never be considered a candidate for the starting SS job. Those walks he has been coaxing out of clueless kids in the minors will dry up in the majors once pitchers realize he can't hurt them by putting the bat on the ball.

He might eventually be a valuable glove off the bench, but I don't want him anywhere near the starting lineup.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-12-2008, 02:45 PM
He might eventually be a valuable glove off the bench, but I don't want him anywhere near the starting lineup.

Let him take the mound and let's see what he can do.

lollipopcurve
03-12-2008, 03:40 PM
That sub-400 slugging percentage in the minors tells me he should never be considered a candidate for the starting SS job. Those walks he has been coaxing out of clueless kids in the minors will dry up in the majors once pitchers realize he can't hurt them by putting the bat on the ball.

He might eventually be a valuable glove off the bench, but I don't want him anywhere near the starting lineup.

You may be right.

But which is the lesser of two evils? Kepp everyday at SS, compromising the defense behind what looks to be shaping up as a good rotation (that includes some kids), or Janish in the 8 hole of what looks to be an already solid lineup (especially if they can find a catcher who hits)?

If you're looking for a good-hit, good-field SS...good luck. Maybe they'll find one in the first round of the draft this year -- or they'll be robbing Peter to pay Paul in a trade.

Steve4192
03-12-2008, 03:59 PM
If you're looking for a good-hit, good-field SS...good luck.

I'm just looking for a guy who is at least competent in both areas.

Janish's bat looks far from competent at this point in his career. We're talking about a guy who struggled most of his college career to hit with an aluminum bat. I have very little faith in his ability to crack the 700 OPS mark in the majors, and anything below that makes him an offensive sinkhole.

From what I have seen of Keppinger, he looks like a guy who can play a competent SS (make the routine plays) and hit well above the norm for a middle infielder. I'll take that over a guy who might make two or three more spectacular plays a week while being pathetic at the plate.

*BaseClogger*
03-12-2008, 04:07 PM
I'm just looking for a guy who is at least competent in both areas.

Janish's bat looks far from competent at this point in his career. We're talking about a guy who struggled most of his college career to hit with an aluminum bat. I have very little faith in his ability to crack the 700 OPS mark in the majors, and anything below that makes him an offensive sinkhole.

From what I have seen of Keppinger, he looks like a guy who can play a competent SS (make the routine plays) and hit well above the norm for a middle infielder. I'll take that over a guy who might make two or three more spectacular plays a week while being pathetic at the plate.

nice post :thumbup:

RedsManRick
03-12-2008, 04:12 PM
Like with Castro, given an OPS under .600, no amount of defense can offset the negative of that level of offense.

If Janish could hit .230/.300/.360, he'd be worth thinking about as temporary replacement. But given his .221/.278/.317 line in AAA, I'm not optimistic.

TRF
03-12-2008, 04:15 PM
So if Janish isn't the answer, could Rosales be? He started out at SS and was moved because of an injury to his throwing arm. That's healed and the kid can flat out rake.

Chip R
03-12-2008, 04:18 PM
Let him take the mound and let's see what he can do.


I think princeton's been suggesting the same thing for a couple of years now.

BRM
03-12-2008, 04:19 PM
I think princeton's been suggesting the same thing for a couple of years now.

I believe he suggested that for Tatum as well but I could be mistaken.

dougdirt
03-12-2008, 04:28 PM
So if Janish isn't the answer, could Rosales be? He started out at SS and was moved because of an injury to his throwing arm. That's healed and the kid can flat out rake.

No. He was moved off SS before he hurt his arm. He was moved off 3B because of his arm. Kid can hit, but he can't play at SS.... just not enough range.

camisadelgolf
03-12-2008, 04:33 PM
So if Janish isn't the answer, could Rosales be? He started out at SS and was moved because of an injury to his throwing arm. That's healed and the kid can flat out rake.

Rosales is pretty athletic for his size, but I don't think he has the range you want in a shortstop.

TRF
03-12-2008, 04:44 PM
How does his range compare to Kepp's? greater or lesser?

dougdirt
03-12-2008, 04:57 PM
How does his range compare to Kepp's? greater or lesser?

Likely less. He could cover for you in a jam, but I wouldn't ever really want him playing there full time. If it came down to it, I would play him at 2B and throw Phillips to SS.... but thats not a very likely scenario.

princeton
03-12-2008, 05:58 PM
I believe he suggested that for Tatum as well but I could be mistaken.

if you can't hit at Billings but you have a great arm, try the mound. Be Trevor Hoffman