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View Full Version : Would You Deal Bailey For Blanton Now?



Krusty
03-15-2008, 09:54 AM
Given what you have seen in spring training with the performances of Volquez and Cueto, and the struggles of Affedt and Belisle, would you deal Homer Bailey (and maybe a couple of other minor leaguers) to Oakland for Joe Blanton?

Highlifeman21
03-15-2008, 09:55 AM
I've been waiting for a Krusty trade proposal!

Bailey for Blanton? You betcha.

OnBaseMachine
03-15-2008, 09:57 AM
Nope.

FWIW, Blanton has allowed 9 runs in 11 innings this spring, though that doesn't play a factor in my decision.

rotnoid
03-15-2008, 10:06 AM
If that was the deal straight up, I'd do it. But I wouldn't throw in anything else.

WMR
03-15-2008, 10:29 AM
Hell no. I'm not selling low on Bailey at this point. With his stuff, barring an injury, his value can't get much lower... A productive year in AAA, however, and he could easily put it together and become much more valuable than the very "BLAH" Joe Blanton.

kbrake
03-15-2008, 10:30 AM
Hell no. I'm not selling low on Bailey at this point. With his stuff, barring an injury, his value can't get much lower... A productive year in AAA, however, and he could easily put it together and become much more valuable than the very "BLAH" Joe Blanton.

What he said.

redsfan30
03-15-2008, 10:33 AM
Selling low on Bailey would be foolish.

RedsManRick
03-15-2008, 11:03 AM
Still no. Blanton has a league average ceiling, could be worse, and will definitely get more expensive. He doesn't put the Reds in the playoffs this year given that we have reasonable replacement level options for once.

On the pitching side, this team needs upside, not certain mediocrity.

westofyou
03-15-2008, 11:05 AM
I told Homer to go talk to Mario during the game because Dick's busy during the game. I saw him down there all game. I liked that. It's like going to school.


Dusty Baker on Homer...

OnBaseMachine
03-15-2008, 11:35 AM
Homer has put to rest any accusations of him being uncoachable.

mth123
03-15-2008, 11:46 AM
I've been wanting the Reds to get a md-rotation inning guy all winter and I still like Blanton as a substitute for Belisle or Fogg, but I was never in favor of trading more than a Maloney/Stubbs/Valaika or similar package. I voted no. If Hell No was available, that would have been my vote.

nate
03-15-2008, 11:57 AM
As I recall, the rumor surrounding that trade wasn't _just_ Homer, it was Homer + Votto et al...not that the rumor is what was actually proposed.

That being said, I don't think I'd do that deal right now. Let Homer keep hanging with Mario Soto and get his stuff together at AAA.

George Anderson
03-15-2008, 12:42 PM
I see no benefit in moving a 21 year old who throws smoke regardless of a few problems he may be having.

Falls City Beer
03-15-2008, 12:48 PM
As I recall, the rumor surrounding that trade wasn't _just_ Homer, it was Homer + Votto et al...not that the rumor is what was actually proposed.


Yeah, it wasn't a Homer for Blanton deal. I would have done that in a heartbeat. And drunk the sweetest champagne Oct. 1st.

nate
03-15-2008, 12:49 PM
Yeah, it wasn't a Homer for Blanton deal. I would have done that in a heartbeat. And drunk the sweetest champagne Oct. 1st.

Cold Duck?

fearofpopvol1
03-15-2008, 02:07 PM
It's not the worst trade idea ever, but as someone else pointed out, the Reds have enough other options at this point where trading for Blanton wouldn't be a significant upgrade to make a difference. I voted No.

flyer85
03-15-2008, 02:37 PM
rather have a catcher

pedro
03-15-2008, 02:40 PM
rather have a catcher

they need a catcher.

or two.

KronoRed
03-15-2008, 03:41 PM
I'd still do that deal.

red-in-la
03-15-2008, 03:44 PM
I think the Reds have gone from a total write-off to a team that is maybe one starting pitcher away from not only winning this division, but if everything broke just right, dominating this division. The Braves showed a few years ago what a roll you can get on, as a team, when the same 5 guys crank through the rotation all season long. They won, and dominated at times, with really mediocre talent beyond their rotation, and they did it for years.

So, I don't think it is correct to say that a guy like Blanton doesn't make them winners. A guy like Blanton could build that necessary bridge between Haranng/Arroyo and Cueto/Volquez that would be the glue to hold the rotation together. Without that guy (and it appears that Belisle isn't that guy) this rotation will struggle.

So, would I do a deal......in a heartbeat. I would still do Homer and Votto plus another prospect for Blanton (or a guy like him). I say that even though I think Votto would be a HUGE loss.

OnBaseMachine
03-15-2008, 04:08 PM
So, would I do a deal......in a heartbeat. I would still do Homer and Votto plus another prospect for Blanton (or a guy like him).

Wow. Thank goodness Wayne Krivsky is the GM.

AtomicDumpling
03-15-2008, 04:16 PM
I voted No in lieu of "No Flippin' Way" not being a choice.

Blanton is still only 27 years old and is a solid Major League pitcher, but his upside isn't very high. He has benefited from playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. I don't think he would perform well in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.

Blanton had a pretty good year in 2007:
ERA was 3.95
WHIP was 1.22
BAA was .269
K:BB ratio was 3.5:1
K/9 was 5.5 per 9 innings.

Those are solid numbers.

Look at his home/road splits though:

ERA: 2.69 home, 5.11 away
WHIP: 0.99 home, 1.43 away
BAA: .227 home, .304 away

Those numbers bode ill for his chances away from McAfee Coliseum.

Factor in his poor overall numbers in 2006:
ERA - 4.82
WHIP - 1.54
BAA - .309

Blanton is just not the kind of guy I want to trade for if it means I have to give up one of the top ten prospects in all of major league baseball.

CaiGuy
03-15-2008, 04:22 PM
If Blanton would pitch half of his games in Cincinnati next year, I doubt he would be much of an improvement over Belisle, so it definitely isn't worth it. Think about those away stats. You could very well be getting that Blanton.

Ga_Red
03-15-2008, 04:48 PM
I now think Bailey is at his peak....move him while he's at his max...I'd rather some other asset than Blanton, but if that's the best I could do before the season starts I'd advise WK to pull the trigger.
Imo he's not even bull pen fodder, after seeing him this spring....
exchange assets, WK, if possible!

CaiGuy
03-15-2008, 04:54 PM
I now think Bailey is at his peak....move him while he's at his max

What makes you think that he has reached his peak at 21? The fact that he hasn't proven himself as a major league starter yet (at the age of 21!?!)

LoganBuck
03-15-2008, 04:55 PM
But Joe Blanton was 7-5 at home and 7-5 away last year!.... Paul Duh

Aronchis
03-15-2008, 04:57 PM
I now think Bailey is at his peak....move him while he's at his max...I'd rather some other asset than Blanton, but if that's the best I could do before the season starts I'd advise WK to pull the trigger.
Imo he's not even bull pen fodder, after seeing him this spring....
exchange assets, WK, if possible!

I disagree. If anything, Bailey's peak isn't for another 10 years.

RedlegJake
03-15-2008, 05:01 PM
So, would I do a deal......in a heartbeat. I would still do Homer and Votto plus another prospect for Blanton (or a guy like him). I say that even though I think Votto would be a HUGE loss.

Wow...just wow...:eek:

westofyou
03-15-2008, 05:03 PM
Wow...just wow...:eek:

We should throw them some cash too... and a car yeah.. that too.... and some candy, everyone likes candy, skittles... red ones, green ones, the whole shebang...

WMR
03-15-2008, 05:09 PM
Wow. Thank goodness Wayne Krivsky is the GM.

NO KIDDING!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

WMR
03-15-2008, 05:10 PM
I now think Bailey is at his peak....move him while he's at his max...I'd rather some other asset than Blanton, but if that's the best I could do before the season starts I'd advise WK to pull the trigger.
Imo he's not even bull pen fodder, after seeing him this spring....
exchange assets, WK, if possible!

Yeah, because pitchers peak by the age of 21.

Riiiiiigggghhhhttttt.

fearofpopvol1
03-15-2008, 05:32 PM
I'm sure jojo can produce the stats, but trading Bailey for Blanton does not represent a high enough win total over replacement (assuming Belisle is replaced).

TOBTTReds
03-15-2008, 05:35 PM
But Joe Blanton was 7-5 at home and 7-5 away last year!.... Paul Duh

Phewww, I'm glad W/L decideds the success of a pitcher! Yeahh!

Man, sarcasm is really coming out in this thread. Sorry.

cincrazy
03-15-2008, 06:10 PM
People may look at me as a Homer Bailey skeptic, but all I've said is that he isn't ready THIS year, and I stand by that statement.

But I'm not writing the guy off by any means. There's no reason to react to two rough spring training starts against the Yankees and Red Sox when the guy just got out of diapers not too long ago.

red-in-la
03-15-2008, 06:28 PM
If you cannot be senstive to when it's time to go for it, then keep Bailey and wait for him to develop at a time when he is all by himself.

I just believe so few of you see this. In 3-4 years this team is going to be a shell of its former self. The list of talent that will either be retired or making 20 mill a year playing somewhere in New England is too long to list.

If the farm system can keep feeding the team, then maybe Bailey will a couple of other studs around him, but not to the degree the Reds have right now.

I get so tired of the debate of individual players in a vaccuum like we were discussing the draft on your fantasy team. There are times when I would be on the other side of this trade. And of course, the Reds would be way overpaying to get a guy like Blanton, and I wish a guy like Bedard were still available.....but that ship sailed.

But now is the time to get in the race.....so go get a guy who could help now......because the window to compete is small and it is getting smaller everyday.

cincrazy
03-15-2008, 06:30 PM
If you cannot be senstive to when it's time to go for it, then keep Bailey and wait for him to develop at a time when he is all by himself.

I just believe so few of you see this. In 3-4 years this team is going to be a shell of its former self. The list of talent that will either be retired or making 20 mill a year playing somewhere in New England is too long to list.

If the farm system can keep feeding the team, then maybe Bailey will a couple of other studs around him, but not to the degree the Reds have right now.

I get so tired of the debate of individual players in a vaccuum like we were discussing the draft on your fantasy team. There are times when I would be on the other side of this trade. And of course, the Reds would be way overpaying to get a guy like Blanton, and I wish a guy like Bedard were still available.....but that ship sailed.

But now is the time to get in the race.....so go get a guy who could help now......because the window to compete is small and it is getting smaller everyday.

We have virtually all of these guys under control for a good while, there's no reason to not be patient with a young nucleus.

fearofpopvol1
03-15-2008, 06:36 PM
If you cannot be senstive to when it's time to go for it, then keep Bailey and wait for him to develop at a time when he is all by himself.

I just believe so few of you see this. In 3-4 years this team is going to be a shell of its former self. The list of talent that will either be retired or making 20 mill a year playing somewhere in New England is too long to list.

If the farm system can keep feeding the team, then maybe Bailey will a couple of other studs around him, but not to the degree the Reds have right now.

I get so tired of the debate of individual players in a vaccuum like we were discussing the draft on your fantasy team. There are times when I would be on the other side of this trade. And of course, the Reds would be way overpaying to get a guy like Blanton, and I wish a guy like Bedard were still available.....but that ship sailed.

But now is the time to get in the race.....so go get a guy who could help now......because the window to compete is small and it is getting smaller everyday.

That's all fine and dandy IF it's going to be an impact player. Blanton is not going to be that player that puts the Reds over the edge.

*BaseClogger*
03-15-2008, 06:50 PM
This team is not one Joe Blanton away from securing a trip to the postseason. No way you mortgage a future like Homer Bailey if Joe Blanton isn't that final piece to the puzzle. Winning 83 games this season instead of 79 just doesn't really matter...

coachw513
03-15-2008, 06:54 PM
No deal...unless Homer is totally uncoachable and unable to improve AND the Reds are incapable of helping him improve would this deal even be a wash...we have enough "meh" starters...I don't mind waiting on this 21 year old to be a "wow" starter...

jojo
03-15-2008, 08:13 PM
I'm sure jojo can produce the stats, but trading Bailey for Blanton does not represent a high enough win total over replacement (assuming Belisle is replaced).

There's about 6 threads in the archives that argue that issue from all angles.

I'm more interested in watching (preferrably from upwind) others poke this bloated carcass with a stick........ :cool:


http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/forum/popcorn.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

nate
03-15-2008, 08:17 PM
I just believe so few of you see this. In 3-4 years this team is going to be a shell of its former self. The list of talent that will either be retired or making 20 mill a year playing somewhere in New England is too long to list.

Think how thin that shell would be if we traded away four of our top prospects for one guy who will part of the "former Red" club in 3-4 years.


I get so tired of the debate of individual players in a vaccuum like we were discussing the draft on your fantasy team. There are times when I would be on the other side of this trade. And of course, the Reds would be way overpaying to get a guy like Blanton, and I wish a guy like Bedard were still available.....but that ship sailed.

Not to be snarky but that seems like the argument you are making. One guy like Bedard or Haren would make a difference and worth trading the entire future for. I disagree.


But now is the time to get in the race.....so go get a guy who could help now......because the window to compete is small and it is getting smaller everyday.

There are guys who could help get the car in the race but it's going to take the plural form ("guys" with an "s") to win it.

Falls City Beer
03-15-2008, 08:21 PM
I see no point in arguing the "would Blanton help" thing again. That chance has passed us by.

jojo
03-15-2008, 08:33 PM
My last comment wasn't meant to suggest this conversation is moot but rather, I've got nothing to add to it...

BTW, Bedard's ERA is almost 10 for the spring....

red-in-la
03-16-2008, 12:04 AM
Think how thin that shell would be if we traded away four of our top prospects for one guy who will part of the "former Red" club in 3-4 years.
.

Who said ANYTHING about 3-4 of our top prospects? As Jojo has pointed out, we have been down this road before. If Bailey and Votto and some B prospect are the future of this team, it will be worse then even I am sating 3-4 years from now.




Not to be snarky but that seems like the argument you are making. One guy like Bedard or Haren would make a difference and worth trading the entire future for. I disagree.

.

Ditto....not the entire future......I find it rather interesting that a large portion of the teams that win year upon year do this all the time. They trade prospects for help TODAY. But you guys act like trading a couple of guys will destroy the franchise.




There are guys who could help get the car in the race but it's going to take the plural form ("guys" with an "s") to win it.

Every team at some point, is going to be a guy or two away. Look what Joe Morgan and Jack Billingham did for the BRM. They lifted a good team to a legend. With what WK and done so far, it is just my humble opinion that he needs to make one more move to take a mediocre team to a competitive team while this NL central is so bad. IN a couple fo years, even if you are right and Bailey helps the Reds better, there are 5 other teams that might make "better" a mute point.

OnBaseMachine
03-16-2008, 12:25 AM
Who said ANYTHING about 3-4 of our top prospects? As Jojo has pointed out, we have been down this road before. If Bailey and Votto and some B prospect are the future of this team, it will be worse then even I am sating 3-4 years from now.


So, basically you're saying you don't think Bailey and Votto are very good prospects?

Oh ok.

But thousands of people disagree with you.

Thank God Wayne Krivsky is the GM!

red-in-la
03-16-2008, 01:13 AM
So, basically you're saying you don't think Bailey and Votto are very good prospects?

Oh ok.

But thousands of people disagree with you.

Thank God Wayne Krivsky is the GM!

Reading what I type, if you want to respond, is only fair. :D

I said in my previous posts that losing Votto would be HUGE. Votto could easily be my favorite Red. But you sometimes need to trade value to get value. The Reds have any number of ways to fill 1B in 2008 and beyond. They have over fine prospects coming up over the next few years also.

I think Bailey is highly overrated. He may be a fine PROSPECT, but that isn't going to help this team a the moment that they have a chance to compete.

I think Hamilton was worth a lot more than Bailey but most of you think trading Hamilton was just fine.....

Look, my entire premise here is that the Reds are in about the worst division in baseball right now......that isn't going to last. They play an unbalanced schedule, menaing can probably pile up some wins against their own weak division, enough so that they can compete.

If the Reds were in the NL East or West, I would never trade Bailey or Votto, as I would have to hope that the Reds might improve enough in 3 year to be able to win.....it wouldn't happen, but it would be a hope.

But they are as close as they are going to get to being able to win.....because of the currently weak division AND the fact that Harang is at his peak and they still have Dunn and JR. If Cueto is the real deal, one more 12-15 game winner who threw 200 innings would give them a rotation that would stack up against the Cubs and Brewers. Sans that guy, they will be throwing bad pitchers at pretty good teams in moements when a win will mean a great deal......and they will go wanting.

OnBaseMachine
03-16-2008, 01:49 AM
Joe Blanton is not going to push the Reds over the top. He's a decent pitcher pitching half his games in a pitchers park. If he could be had cheaply then I would love to have. Otherwise, no deal for me. Homer Bailey + Joey Votto for Blanton would be an awful trade from the Reds perspective.

M2
03-16-2008, 02:30 AM
This is kind of a moot point at the moment. Until Bailey has a good month or two on the mound he probably can't fetch anything the Reds would really want.

Also, I think a more interesting trade scenario for Bailey would be for a young catcher (e.g. Jeff Clement or Chris Iannetta).

red-in-la
03-16-2008, 03:01 AM
Joe Blanton is not going to push the Reds over the top. He's a decent pitcher pitching half his games in a pitchers park. If he could be had cheaply then I would love to have. Otherwise, no deal for me. Homer Bailey + Joey Votto for Blanton would be an awful trade from the Reds perspective.

I actually agree that it is an awful trade if you just look at the trade by itself. But when you look at it from what the Reds have extra of, and what they are desparate to get......it is a terrific trade.

In 2008, 200 innings in the middle of the Reds rotation would be HUGE.....bigger than HUGE. I just don't see where you can say it isn't.

Topcat
03-16-2008, 07:00 AM
The poll results show that this is an idea only an idiot would consider. If the Reds want have any long term future this is a short sighted goal. Our Reds are building a stock pile of trade able assets to add needs in future to contend. Now is not that time as is they are my odds on favorite to win the division as is . Factor in possibility's of being able to add complimentary additions before trade deadline with assets already owned its not even close if teams health issues does not factor into equation.

red-in-la
03-16-2008, 08:07 AM
The poll results show that this is an idea only an idiot would consider. If the Reds want have any long term future this is a short sighted goal. Our Reds are building a stock pile of trade able assets to add needs in future to contend. Now is not that time as is they are my odds on favorite to win the division as is . Factor in possibility's of being able to add complimentary additions before trade deadline with assets already owned its not even close if teams health issues does not factor into equation.

:wave:

Krusty
03-16-2008, 10:47 AM
The poll results show that this is an idea only an idiot would consider. If the Reds want have any long term future this is a short sighted goal. Our Reds are building a stock pile of trade able assets to add needs in future to contend. Now is not that time as is they are my odds on favorite to win the division as is . Factor in possibility's of being able to add complimentary additions before trade deadline with assets already owned its not even close if teams health issues does not factor into equation.

The poll I started was brought up to bring up a serious discussion concerning the Reds rotation. Are the Reds trying to win this year or looking at two or three years from now? I say they are going for it now. Dunn and Griffey are in their last years of their contracts. No way would the Reds give 46 million to Cordero. They would start with Weathers as the closer with the hope Burton could assume the role at midseason. No way would the Reds bring Dusty Baker in if they weren't committed to try to win the division this season.

I can see the point of keeping the crown jewels. But just like the Stillwell for Danny Jackson deal, you have to decide which jewel to give up in order to get that pitcher to bolster the rotation.

boognish
03-16-2008, 10:50 AM
This is kind of a moot point at the moment. Until Bailey has a good month or two on the mound he probably can't fetch anything the Reds would really want.

Also, I think a more interesting trade scenario for Bailey would be for a young catcher (e.g. Jeff Clement or Chris Iannetta).

Now, here's an idea! Good post.

Krusty
03-16-2008, 11:02 AM
Here are a few points to consider:

1. How many of you were actually excited when Krivsky sent Willy Mo Pena to Boston for Bronson Arroyo during spring training in 2006?

Here were Arroyo's stats in 2005:
2005
35 32 0 0 , 205.1 IP , 213Hits 116Runs 103ER 22HR 54BB 100K 14-10, 4.52 ERA

Now here were Blanton's stats for 2007:
G IP H R HR BB SO W L Sv P/GS WHIP BAA ERA
34 230.0 240 106 16 40 140 14 10 0 102.6 1.22 .269 3.95

Stats look very similar. Now Arroyo's ERA was lowered by one run his first year in the NL. With Blanton coming over to the NL and hitters seeing him the first time, his ERA should be lower than what it was in the NL. Look at AL pitchers who come over to the NL in their first year. The majority has lower ERAs than when they were in the AL.

2. If the Orioles were willing to take Votto and Bailey for Bedard, I think the Reds would have pulled the trigger to the deal. But their insistence on Jay Bruce was the stumbling block.

3. Acquiring Blanton means he would be the number 3 starter which would push Fogg, Belisle, Cueto, Volquez and possibly (slim chance at this point) Affedt for the four and five spots. Just like acquiring Cordero for the bullpen, pushing the others down a notch actually strengthens the staff.

nate
03-16-2008, 11:16 AM
Who said ANYTHING about 3-4 of our top prospects? As Jojo has pointed out, we have been down this road before. If Bailey and Votto and some B prospect are the future of this team, it will be worse then even I am sating 3-4 years from now.

Just going off the hyperbolic trade rumor mill. If Bailey/Votto and some B Prospect is all it would've taken, I'm sure one of those guys would be a Red right now.


Ditto....not the entire future......I find it rather interesting that a large portion of the teams that win year upon year do this all the time. They trade prospects for help TODAY. But you guys act like trading a couple of guys will destroy the franchise.

You do that when you're one guy away. The Reds aren't one guy away.


Every team at some point, is going to be a guy or two away. Look what Joe Morgan and Jack Billingham did for the BRM. They lifted a good team to a legend.

That was a pretty good team before those dudes showed up.


With what WK and done so far, it is just my humble opinion that he needs to make one more move to take a mediocre team to a competitive team while this NL central is so bad.

I think Wayne has done a lot for the organization but the Reds are still more than one pitcher away from winning.

Chip R
03-16-2008, 11:27 AM
Not that I don't think Blanton would be a fine addition to this pitching staff but given what Beane got for Haren, trading him Baiey for someone who is not as good as Haren is overpaying by a huge amount.

Matt700wlw
03-16-2008, 11:52 AM
Nope.

FWIW, Blanton has allowed 9 runs in 11 innings this spring, though that doesn't play a factor in my decision.

I'll go ahead and do it...it's spring training, he's getting his work in ;)

OnBaseMachine
03-16-2008, 11:55 AM
Not that I don't think Blanton would be a fine addition to this pitching staff but given what Beane got for Haren, trading him Baiey for someone who is not as good as Haren is overpaying by a huge amount.

Exactly.

Homer Bailey + Joey Votto + even a B prospect as someone suggested would be a better return for Blanton than what Beane got for Dan Haren, and Blanton is no where near the caliber of pitcher of Haren.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 12:34 PM
This is kind of a moot point at the moment. Until Bailey has a good month or two on the mound he probably can't fetch anything the Reds would really want.

Also, I think a more interesting trade scenario for Bailey would be for a young catcher (e.g. Jeff Clement or Chris Iannetta).

Chris Iannetta on the Rockies?

No way in hell. It would take way less to get him.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 12:38 PM
Here are a few points to consider:

1. How many of you were actually excited when Krivsky sent Willy Mo Pena to Boston for Bronson Arroyo during spring training in 2006?

Here were Arroyo's stats in 2005:
2005
35 32 0 0 , 205.1 IP , 213Hits 116Runs 103ER 22HR 54BB 100K 14-10, 4.52 ERA

Now here were Blanton's stats for 2007:
G IP H R HR BB SO W L Sv P/GS WHIP BAA ERA
34 230.0 240 106 16 40 140 14 10 0 102.6 1.22 .269 3.95

Stats look very similar. Now Arroyo's ERA was lowered by one run his first year in the NL. With Blanton coming over to the NL and hitters seeing him the first time, his ERA should be lower than what it was in the NL. Look at AL pitchers who come over to the NL in their first year. The majority has lower ERAs than when they were in the AL.

I was fired up. While your logic is true, I would have to say that Bailey is a much more valued commodity now than Pena was at the time of the trade. In addition, he was part of a logjam in the OF. The Reds don't really have a logjam in the rotation.


2. If the Orioles were willing to take Votto and Bailey for Bedard, I think the Reds would have pulled the trigger to the deal. But their insistence on Jay Bruce was the stumbling block.

Probably.


3. Acquiring Blanton means he would be the number 3 starter which would push Fogg, Belisle, Cueto, Volquez and possibly (slim chance at this point) Affedt for the four and five spots. Just like acquiring Cordero for the bullpen, pushing the others down a notch actually strengthens the staff.

I think he could make the rotation better, but not by enough to warrant dealing Homer.

If I had a choice, I would have rather signed Lohse for a one year deal than deal Bailey for Blanton. And I hate Lohse.

dougdirt
03-16-2008, 02:16 PM
Here are a few points to consider:

1. How many of you were actually excited when Krivsky sent Willy Mo Pena to Boston for Bronson Arroyo during spring training in 2006?

Here were Arroyo's stats in 2005:
2005
35 32 0 0 , 205.1 IP , 213Hits 116Runs 103ER 22HR 54BB 100K 14-10, 4.52 ERA

Now here were Blanton's stats for 2007:
G IP H R HR BB SO W L Sv P/GS WHIP BAA ERA
34 230.0 240 106 16 40 140 14 10 0 102.6 1.22 .269 3.95

Stats look very similar. Now Arroyo's ERA was lowered by one run his first year in the NL. With Blanton coming over to the NL and hitters seeing him the first time, his ERA should be lower than what it was in the NL. Look at AL pitchers who come over to the NL in their first year. The majority has lower ERAs than when they were in the AL.

Of course, 1 guy was playing his home games in a giant stadium and another guy was in one of the more friendly hitters parks in baseball.

M2
03-16-2008, 04:48 PM
Chris Iannetta on the Rockies?

No way in hell. It would take way less to get him.

I suspect the Rockies would tell the Reds to buzz off if they pitched Bailey for Iannetta.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 05:08 PM
I suspect the Rockies would tell the Reds to buzz off if they pitched Bailey for Iannetta.

No way in hell.

M2
03-16-2008, 05:16 PM
No way in hell.

A) The Rockies seem to think they've got plenty of pitching.

B) Homer Bailey's market value wasn't so hot before he got cuffed around in ST.

C) Iannetta is a 24-year-old C with a minor league OPS of .918 and good defensive skills. In limited MLB exposure he has a .342 OB.

I'd be surprised if Colorado didn't laugh at the offer.

OnBaseMachine
03-16-2008, 05:26 PM
The Jays were set to trade Alex Rios to the Giants for Tim Lincecum but the Giants turned it down IIRC. I wonder if they would be interested in a Homer Bailey + Drew Stubbs for Rios deal?

I'm not giving up on Bailey. I still think he is going to be a great major league starter, just not right now. I saw some progress from him with his changeup this spring and his curve was pretty good at times. I think he'll go to Louisville and strikeout a ton of batters (10.0 K/9 or around that) but it will be his command that determines whether or not he's MLB ready this summer. With that said, he's not completely untochable to me. If I can grab a stud CFer like Rios for him then I probably do it.

Matt700wlw
03-16-2008, 05:27 PM
A trip to Louisville may be that kick in the rear he needs.

Highlifeman21
03-16-2008, 05:37 PM
The Jays were set to trade Alex Rios to the Giants for Tim Lincecum but the Giants turned it down IIRC. I wonder if they would be interested in a Homer Bailey + Drew Stubbs for Rios deal?

I'm not giving up on Bailey. I still think he is going to be a great major league starter, just not right now. I saw some progress from him with his changeup this spring and his curve was pretty good at times. I think he'll go to Louisville and strikeout a ton of batters (10.0 K/9 or around that) but it will be his command that determines whether or not he's MLB ready this summer. With that said, he's not completely untochable to me. If I can grab a stud CFer like Rios for him then I probably do it.

I thought Rios played RF for the Blue Jays, and IMO the Jays would have a good laugh at Wayne's expense if he proposed Bailey & Stubbs for Rios.

Aronchis
03-16-2008, 05:54 PM
A trip to Louisville may be that kick in the rear he needs.

Doubt it. That isn't Homer's problem from the reports. He just takes awhile to power up. Sounds like he is only 50% right now. That has its benefits and its downsides as we work our way through the season.

Obviously as his career marches on, he needs to get in tune faster, but at this point, no loss for the Reds.

bucksfan2
03-17-2008, 11:06 AM
Doubt it. That isn't Homer's problem from the reports. He just takes awhile to power up. Sounds like he is only 50% right now. That has its benefits and its downsides as we work our way through the season.

Obviously as his career marches on, he needs to get in tune faster, but at this point, no loss for the Reds.

I think to even a bigger extent too much is made of success in spring training. The season isn't won in March. Its great that both Cueto and Volquez are having a great spring but they both had a warm up secession in the winter in winter ball. Who knows what Bailey did over the offseason and who knows what the reds orginazation mandated that he do. Harang seems to always struggle in the spring getting his timing back and throwing all his pitches. No one truely knows what Bailey has been working on all spring, what he did in the offseason, and if he is pitching at 100% (not health concerns, just being fully ready.)

membengal
03-17-2008, 11:15 AM
Nothing wrong with Bailey getting some much needed time to work on things in AAA as a 21-year-old. With any luck, he will spend the entire season there. Frankly, the slow spring he has experienced is probably the best thing that could have happened to him and the team, as they can now send him to AAA for the time he still needs there.

And, no, I would not trade him for Blanton. Still.

Krusty
03-18-2008, 02:12 AM
Frankly, I think Bailey needs an attitude adjustment. Sending him to Louisville might knock some sense in his head.

redsrule2500
03-18-2008, 09:56 AM
Yes, I would. I'm sick of waiting for later, I want some good pitching NOW :D

Krusty
03-18-2008, 11:20 AM
Seems like we keep talking about the future but I think the future is now. If not, then Dusty Baker, Francisco Cordero and Jermey Affedt wouldn't be here. The Reds didn't spend that money looking at five years down the road.

westofyou
03-18-2008, 11:23 AM
If not, then Dusty Baker, Francisco Cordero and Jermey Affedt wouldn't be here.

That statement is like someone saying....

"Dudes check out my cars... I have a 67 Stang, a BMW and an AMC Matador."

RFS62
03-18-2008, 11:49 AM
It's amazing the unrealistic expectations put on a 21 year old kid.

And a lot of it is the Reds own doing. We hyped him as the next big thing.

He's not ready. And there's nothing wrong with that.

If we could strip away all the hype and didn't know his name and just signed him out of college, we'd be very happy with his progress.

He's being judged against the best pitchers in the world. He's just not there yet.

lollipopcurve
03-18-2008, 11:53 AM
The notion that Homer Bailey will not improve is pretty far-fetched. I'd be looking to deal Belisle in a package right now, not Homer.

edabbs44
03-18-2008, 11:53 AM
A) The Rockies seem to think they've got plenty of pitching.

B) Homer Bailey's market value wasn't so hot before he got cuffed around in ST.

C) Iannetta is a 24-year-old C with a minor league OPS of .918 and good defensive skills. In limited MLB exposure he has a .342 OB.

I'd be surprised if Colorado didn't laugh at the offer.

Iannetta has flopped in the majors at least to the extent of Bailey (if not more) and in a hitter friendly environment.

If you want to compare minor league history between the 2, I think Bailey would come out on top.

Highlifeman21
03-18-2008, 12:47 PM
It's amazing the unrealistic expectations put on a 21 year old kid.

And a lot of it is the Reds own doing. We hyped him as the next big thing.

He's not ready. And there's nothing wrong with that.

If we could strip away all the hype and didn't know his name and just signed him out of college, we'd be very happy with his progress.

He's being judged against the best pitchers in the world. He's just not there yet.

I just hope that the unifying "Bailey-thought" is that we want him to get there. We root for him to get there. Unfortunately, we'll never be unified on the timetable for him to get there.

KronoRed
03-18-2008, 03:50 PM
Seems like we keep talking about the future but I think the future is now. If not, then Dusty Baker, Francisco Cordero and Jermey Affedt wouldn't be here. The Reds didn't spend that money looking at five years down the road.

Affedt?

Anyway Cordero and Dusty signed long term deals, the future is in 3-5 years.

BRM
03-19-2008, 01:13 PM
According to Rosenthal, the A's wanted Cueto, not Bailey, for Joe Blanton.



All quiet on the Joe Blanton front. The pitcher the A's wanted from the Reds in a Blanton package was none other right-hander Johnny Cueto, who appears destined for a spot in manager Dusty Baker's rotation.

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2008, 01:17 PM
I wouldn't trade Johnny Cueto for Joe Blanton straight up, let alone Cueto plus others.

Krusty
03-19-2008, 02:02 PM
Nothing like the A's to inquire about Cueto. Shoot high and come back to earth and talk about a Bailey for Blanton deal.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 02:28 PM
I wouldn't trade Johnny Cueto for Joe Blanton straight up, let alone Cueto plus others.

Cueto and Bruce are two guys on my short-list of untouchables.