PDA

View Full Version : The lineup - Phillips to bat 4th



paulrichjr
03-16-2008, 01:06 AM
OK so we know Griffery will bat 3rd, Phillips 4th and Dunn 5th... What else do we know?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/03/14/donovan.phillips/index.html

SARASOTA, Fla. -- Dusty Baker can't win. I mean, his record as a manager -- which is, after all, what all of these guys are ultimately judged on -- isn't bad at all. He's guided his teams to the playoffs a handful of times. He took the Giants to the World Series in 2002. He was a few outs away from getting the Cubs there in 2003.

He has a lifetime winning percentage of .527. That's behind Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa, Mike Scioscia and Joe Torre. But it's ahead of Lou Piniella, Terry Francona, Jim Leyland and every other manager in the game. You have to admit, Baker must be doing something right.

But every time the man talks strategy, every time he starts in on his disdain for slow-footed sluggers who "clog the bases" with walks, every time he goes to the bullpen early -- heck, every time he fills out a lineup card -- he becomes an easy target for stats-crunching critics everywhere. The decidedly old-school skipper simply can't win, even when it looks like he's doing something new-school.

A current example: Baker, who is taking over the Reds this season, is planning on sticking second baseman Brandon Phillips into the cleanup spot. Phillips took the majority of his at-bats there last season, though he never put in any real time in the middle of the lineup before that. In fact, before former Reds manager Jerry Narron wrote him in at cleanup last season, Phillips had all of two plate appearances there.

This is, seemingly, something different for Baker. Phillips -- 6-feet tall, and certainly no more than 195 pounds or so, and a man with plenty of speed -- may be the most unlikely looking cleanup hitter in the game. He's not the player that you'd typically think that Baker would want swinging the big lumber.

Yet, in many ways, this is exactly what Baker would do, and it's easy to see why he's doing it. Despite his lack of size, Phillips cranked 30 home runs last season. He drove in 94 runs. And -- this is important -- Phillips provides a nice right-handed compliment to stick between the two big lefty swingers in the lineup, Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn.

"The best place for him, eventually, would be third," Baker admits, finishing up his breakfast in his office one recent morning here. "But Brandon can bat leadoff, second. He could bat all over that lineup. Fifth. Just for our team, right now, the best spot is where he is."

The problem with Phillips as a cleanup hitter -- and this is, statistically speaking, hard to argue -- is that he's miserably miscast. Yeah, he had a lot of home runs and a lot of RBIs last year. You'd kind of expect that from that position in the lineup.

But, overall, Phillips didn't get as much out of that spot as even an average cleanup hitter would have. Among cleanup hitters with at least 350 plate appearances, Phillips (who had 364 as a No. 4 hitter) put up one of the lowest slugging percentages (.493) and one of the worst on-base percentages (.352) in baseball last season.

Knocking in runners? Phillips drove in somewhere between 13-14 percent of the runs he had a chance to knock in (not counting himself, with home runs), which ranks deep in the bottom half of all hitters in the league. (The best player in the league least year at converting on his RBI opportunities was Detroit's Magglio Ordonez, who drove in nearly 22 percent of the runners that were on base for him.)

So far this spring, Phillips has one walk so far and a .267 on-base percentage. He does have a couple of homers, and he's driven in a team-high 11 runs.

Still, Baker's standing by his man.
"He can get a lot better. He's gonna get better," Baker says of Phillips. "He's just now learning how to hit. He's just now learning pitch selection. Those numbers will go up big time. What'd he walk? Thirty times. [In almost 700 plate appearances, Phillips walked just 33 times, among the worst in baseball for that number of PAs.] So, right now, they can still trick him some times."

Baker wouldn't mind if Phillips walked a little more, especially considering he isn't a "base clogger"; he stole 32 bases last season. But getting on base -- especially getting on base by a walk -- is clearly secondary to Baker. He wants Phillips to be aggressive. Baker wants him to swing the bat.

"If you're supposed to be up there driving in runs ... a run producer, he ain't up there to get his on-base percentage up. He's in there to drive in runs," says Baker. "If you're passing it on to the next hitter, a lot of times, he's not as good of a hitter as you. Otherwise ... he'd be hitting ahead of you."

For his part, Phillips admits he's not your typical cleanup hitter -- "not even close," he says -- but he's fine hitting anywhere from 1-7 in the lineup. "I go up there trying to hit the ball hard. That's my No. 1 goal. Just put a good swing on the ball," Phillips says. "I like to swing the bat, that's what I like to do. I'm a swinger."

Analysts can give you some great arguments that hitting order, as a whole, is vastly overrated anyway, an argument that might let Baker off the hook in his latest run-in with the stats guys. But don't tell that to Baker, though.

"I heard this thing today, man: The lineup really doesn't matter. That's [poppycock]," Baker says. "I love stat guys, but statheads have gotten way, way out there."
Reds' odds and ends

Don't be surprised if Baker pushes to get young right-hander Johnny Cueto into the rotation at the beginning of the season. Cueto, 22, has thrown nine innings and given up one run this spring. He has, by far, been the most impressive of Reds' throwers this camp. Given the fact that lefty Jeremy Affeldt has struggled -- 19 hits in 11 2/3 innings -- and may be thrown back into the bullpen, Cueto's chances of making the rotation look that much better.

The Reds will have to keep careful tabs on him, though. He threw more than 161 innings in three levels of ball last season, ending with 22 innings at Class AAA Louisville.

The Reds' other young stud pitcher, Homer Bailey, is not as assured of a spot. He's been unremarkable in the camp so far, with six strikeouts and six walks in 7 1/3 innings.

If Affeldt moves back to the 'pen, the Reds will have an all-righty rotation, whoever ends up there.

A couple of other youngsters, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, both are expected to make the big-league roster. Bruce still has a very good chance of being the Opening Day center fielder, and Votto could start at first. Neither is having a great spring so far. But it is spring.

*BaseClogger*
03-16-2008, 01:08 AM
"The best place for him, eventually, would be third," Baker admits, finishing up his breakfast in his office one recent morning here. "But Brandon can bat leadoff, second. He could bat all over that lineup. Fifth. Just for our team, right now, the best spot is where he is."

the games need to start so we have something to judge Dusty on other than these quotes!

red-in-la
03-16-2008, 01:46 AM
I thought Bruce was all but gone to AAA. Seeing this is from SI, does this guy have a clue?

M2
03-16-2008, 02:02 AM
I can live with Brandon Phillips batting 4th, but what works a raw nerve on me is Adam Dunn hitting 5th or lower. Lineups do count and Baker's now confirmed that he's going to do something stupid with his.

KronoRed
03-16-2008, 02:04 AM
If might be for the best if Bruce lands in AAA to start, with the split the lefties rule he might have to bat 9th to keep away from Dunn and Votto

Puffy
03-16-2008, 02:27 AM
Given what the Reds have - I have no problem with Junior 3, BP 4 and Dunn 5.

Its the 1 and 2 spots that are the problem.

KronoRed
03-16-2008, 02:48 AM
Its the 1 and 2 spots that are the problem.

Patterson and Castro don't get you excited as table setters?

SteelSD
03-16-2008, 02:58 AM
"The best place for him, eventually, would be third," Baker admits...

Yeah, and the best place for you, Mr. Baker, would be managing another team.

reds44
03-16-2008, 02:59 AM
Patterson/Hopper CF
Keppinger SS
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Votto/Hatteberg 1B
Valentin C

Kc61
03-16-2008, 10:13 AM
Patterson/Hopper CF
Keppinger SS
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Votto/Hatteberg 1B
Valentin C

This looks about right. Filling out the roster (non-pitchers) will be a middle infielder (Castro until AGon is healthy), backup catcher (Bako assuming Ross isn't ready), and one more bench guy who plays multiple positions -- Freel or a replacement if he is traded.

WMR
03-16-2008, 10:21 AM
Dunn 5th is just retarded.

Falls City Beer
03-16-2008, 10:25 AM
Lineup orders are the most overrated things in the world. I consider the bullpen catcher more important. Get the right guys in the lineup, and it'll work.

WMR
03-16-2008, 10:26 AM
Compare Dunn's lifetime stats in the 2-hole versus anything lower than the 4-hole and get back to me.

Falls City Beer
03-16-2008, 10:28 AM
Compare Dunn's lifetime stats in the 2-hole versus anything lower than the 4-hole and get back to me.

Pfft. I hear the same stuff about home/away splits for pitchers. It all comes out in the wash over time.

boognish
03-16-2008, 10:37 AM
I resolved to not complain about Baker's lineups this season, accepting there would be any number of nonoptimal permutations; speed over OBP at the top of the lineup being the primary concern.

On the other hand, I suppose it was a bit naive to assume the Narron/MacKanin meat of the order of Griffey/Phillips/Dunn would be seen by Baker as something in need of a shakeup. I don't like Phillips and his .250/.294/.398 career line against RHP (.262/.310/.428 last season) in front of the primary power threat in the lineup against righties. I'd also like to see Dunn higher in the lineup.

I'll just have to live with it. This will be the last time I gripe on the matter (hopefully).

Raisor
03-16-2008, 11:17 AM
I dislike it very much.

Steve4192
03-16-2008, 11:45 AM
I can live with Brandon Phillips batting 4th, but what works a raw nerve on me is Adam Dunn hitting 5th or lower.

What's wrong with 5th?

I love the Donkey, but Junior ain't exactly chopped liver. I don't think a lineup with KGJ-BP-Dunn batting 3-4-5 will produce much (if any) differently than a lineup with Dunn-BP-KGJ in those spots.

If you want to argue placing Dunn in the two-hole then you won't get an argument from me, but if I HAD to place him in the middle of the order, I can see the logic for the five-hole.

Highlifeman21
03-16-2008, 12:14 PM
"The best place for him, eventually, would be third," Baker admits, finishing up his breakfast in his office one recent morning here. "But Brandon can bat leadoff, second. He could bat all over that lineup. Fifth. Just for our team, right now, the best spot is where he is."

Wrong on so many levels, Mr. Baker.

I guess technically Brandon can bat leadoff, or 2nd, or all over the lineup, but he should only bat 5th or 6th.

EE is a better RHB option for 4th than Brandon.

Depending on who's hitting leadoff and 2nd, and assuming Griffey or Dunn is 3rd (although it'll be Griffey and we all know it), that will determine the over/under for GIDP for Mr. Phillips. If we put "basecloggers" in front of Phillips, then he very well could surpass 45 GIDP in 2008.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 12:21 PM
[quote]"If you're supposed to be up there driving in runs ... a run producer, he ain't up there to get his on-base percentage up. He's in there to drive in runs," says Baker. "If you're passing it on to the next hitter, a lot of times, he's not as good of a hitter as you. Otherwise ... he'd be hitting ahead of you."

Except this time, he is batting behind you. Uggh.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 12:31 PM
[quote]"If you're supposed to be up there driving in runs ... a run producer, he ain't up there to get his on-base percentage up. He's in there to drive in runs," says Baker. "If you're passing it on to the next hitter, a lot of times, he's not as good of a hitter as you. Otherwise ... he'd be hitting ahead of you."

Except this time, he is batting behind you. Uggh.

Except EE would presumably be hitting behind Dunn.

This isn't the worst lineup in the world.

redsfan4445
03-16-2008, 12:42 PM
Dont worry, with JR probly leaving after 2008, i see The Reds resign Dunn long term and this will be part of the lineup

Dunn (LF) 3rd
Phillips (2B) 4th
Bruce (RF) 5th

OnBaseMachine
03-16-2008, 12:48 PM
If Edwin Encarnacion develops like I think he will this year, he'll give the Reds a true RH cleanup bat to break up the lefties if they really think that is necessary. Edwin's primed for a big breakout season IMO. 35-40 doubles and 25-30 homers is what I'm predicting from EdE this season.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 03:35 PM
My newly predicted opening day lineup:

CF Patterson
SS Castro
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
1B Hatteberg
C Ross

Sigh. I think I'm somehow still in denial that Dusty Baker is managing the Reds.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 03:38 PM
My newly predicted opening day lineup:

CF Patterson
SS Castro
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
1B Hatteberg
C Ross

Sigh. I think I'm somehow still in denial that Dusty Baker is managing the Reds.

If the case, I wonder why they wouldn't have given Lofton a look. I would think that they kind of had the hint that Bruce would be going to AAA for a little while.

Spring~Fields
03-16-2008, 03:41 PM
If Edwin Encarnacion develops like I think he will this year, he'll give the Reds a true RH cleanup bat to break up the lefties

I wish I could see what Encarcion could do with the bat if he had protection behind him. Seems like he has always had no threat batters behind him and had to scrap for what he could get to hit.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 03:49 PM
We have a cleanup hitter who hits for less power and gets on base less often than our #5 hitter. How is that not bad?

Out cleanup hitter has this line versus righties: .250/.294/.398. And he yet's going to get more at bats than guy who does this .252/.390/.537. This isn't sabermetric, stat-geek stuff. It's simple, easy, and apparently beyond Dusty's comprehension.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 04:20 PM
We have a cleanup hitter who hits for less power and gets on base less often than our #5 hitter. How is that not bad?

Out cleanup hitter has this line versus righties: .250/.294/.398. And he yet's going to get more at bats than guy who does this .252/.390/.537. This isn't sabermetric, stat-geek stuff. It's simple, easy, and apparently beyond Dusty's comprehension.

I don't think it is really fair to use BP's career numbers, as he is a completely different ballplayer now than he was in years past.

Not to say that he should be hitting 4th, just that the numbers are a little unfair.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 04:30 PM
I don't think it is really fair to use BP's career numbers, as he is a completely different ballplayer now than he was in years past.

Not to say that he should be hitting 4th, just that the numbers are a little unfair.

Fair enough, let's look at 2007:

Phillips vR: .262/.310/.428
Phillips vL: .341/.378/.606

Dunn vR: .278/.404/.620
Dunn vL: .239/.353/.436

Phillips has no business batting higher than 5th against righties -- most certainly not ahead of Dunn.

If you really want a right handed bat to break up the lefties against a righty starter?

Encarnacion vR: .291/.346/.444

Higher AVG, OBP, and SLG. What gives Dusty?

M2
03-16-2008, 04:30 PM
What's wrong with 5th?

We've seen what's wrong with it time and again.

First off, Dunn's the best OB guy on the team. Hitting him behind guys like Jr. and Phillips costs the team runs.

Second, it plays to Dunn's weaknesses. He's a big guy with a complicated swing and he gets out of kilter when all he sees is a steady diet of garbage, which is what he tends to be fed when he hits lower in the lineup. Other teams are smart enough to take the bat out of Dunn's hands and make someone else beat them.

It's a perfect recipe for scoring fewer runs than this lineup should and for messing with what should be the main cog in the offense.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 05:42 PM
Here are some lineups and how many runs they'd score according the Lineup Analysis tool at baseballmusings (http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py) using PECOTA weighted mean projections.

It's important to distinguish the effect of lineup composition from lineup order. To that end, here are 3 groups of starters with 3 lineup configurations for each:

Dusty: My guess of what Baker would do with those guys
Optimal: The one that the analysis tool suggests would score the most
Reasonable: A good lineup that you could actually get away with without rocking too many boats

Likely most common lineup
Dusty: Patterson, Gonzalez, Griffey, BP, Dunn, EE, Votto, Ross, Pitcher: 750 runs
Optimal: Dunn, Votto, Phillips, EE, Griffey, Ross, Gonzalez, Pitcher, Patterson: 796 runs
Reasonable: Votto, EE, Griffey, Dunn, Phillips, Patterson, Gonzalez, Ross, Pitcher: 765 runs

The Veteran Special
Dusty: Patterson, Castro, Griffey, Phillips, Dunn, EE, Hatteberg, Ross: 703 runs
Optimal: Hatteberg, Dunn, Phillips, EE, Griffey, Ross, Patterson, Pitcher, Castro: 762 runs
Reasonable: Hatteberg, Phillips, Griffey, Dunn, EE, Patterson, Ross, Castro, Pitcher: 738 runs

The RMR Special
Dusty: Phillips, Keppinger, Griffey, EE, Dunn, Votto, Bruce, Ross, Pitcher: 801 runs
Optimal: Dunn, Votto, Griffey, Bruce, EE, Ross, Phillips, Pitcher, Keppinger: 845 runs
Reasonable: Votto, Keppinger, Griffey, EE, Dunn, Phillips, Bruce, Ross, Pitcher: 807 runs

Dusty average: 751 runs
Optimal average: 801 runs
Reasonable average: 770 runs

Most Likely Lineup average: 770 runs
Veteran Special average: 734 runs
RMR Special average: 818 runs

Some thoughts:
- Yes, I know PECOTA projections aren't the be-all, end-all. However, they are the best we've got and you have to use somebody's projections to do this exercise.
- Lineup Construction > Lineup Order. That is, poor lineup construction will cost you more than poor lineup order -- all else being equal.
- However, there is an interaction effect between the two. If you have the best constructed lineup, the order is less relevant.
- If the young guys are truly capable of performing at the level PECOTA suggests, they need to be playing if the Reds are going to compete in the 2008. If they aren't, we're going to need a few the "veterans" to step up.
- The difference between my guess of what Dusty will do and what I think we could get away with using more sabermetric logic is about 20 runs -- or two wins.

Obviously this isn't gospel and there are a ton of assumptions than can (and will) be challenged. However, it does help put some number on the "Dusty's lineups are killing us" complaint. If we lose the division by a game, it's possible that poor lineup order was the difference -- though that could be said about numerous other things as well.

Highlifeman21
03-16-2008, 05:45 PM
RMR, I don't know why, but your numbers confirmed it for me, I've seen 725 as a number of runs we'll score with Dusty @ the helm.

725 scored ain't gonna cut it for anything but a .500 team, at best.

RedsManRick
03-16-2008, 05:57 PM
Oh, and because people have asked elsewhere, using that first lineup, inserting Keppinger in Gonzalez's place would result in a 16 run boost. That begs the question, is Gonzalez's glove worth 16 runs more than Keppinger's?

FWIW, Bruce over Patterson (and leading off) adds 31.

Here are the BA/OBP/SLG figures used for this analysis:


BA OBP SLG
Bruce .269 .336 .512
Castro .226 .266 .318
Dunn .261 .388 .549
Encarnacion .285 .356 .493
Gonzalez .261 .315 .424
Griffey .268 .350 .480
Hatteberg .285 .368 .440
Keppinger .315 .364 .418
Patterson .268 .307 .402
Phillips .274 .325 .444
Ross .235 .310 .448
Votto .278 .357 .494

(notice the similarity between votto and EE!)

Steve4192
03-16-2008, 06:35 PM
While I love the lineup tool, it's not very realistic. Even if PECOTA nails every prediction perfectly, it still assumes that every guy plays 162 games. It also assumes guys who start the season in the minors will never get a MLB at bat.

The truth is, some guys are going to get hurt, some guys are going to play their way into the lineup, some guys are going to play their way out of the lineup, some guys are going to get called up, and some guys are going to get traded. Chances are nobody will play 162 games and only two or three will even top the 150 mark.

I'd dock about 10% off of most of those projections just to account for injuries and days off, and I'd ADD 10% to the Castro/Patterson/Hatteberg lineups since better players would be in the lineup when those guys are out.

Falls City Beer
03-16-2008, 09:02 PM
If hitters performed better in one lineup slot versus another, then agents would place clauses in every one of their star players' contracts stipulating that said hitter must NEVER bat out of said slot.

fearofpopvol1
03-16-2008, 11:27 PM
We've seen what's wrong with it time and again.

First off, Dunn's the best OB guy on the team. Hitting him behind guys like Jr. and Phillips costs the team runs.

Second, it plays to Dunn's weaknesses. He's a big guy with a complicated swing and he gets out of kilter when all he sees is a steady diet of garbage, which is what he tends to be fed when he hits lower in the lineup. Other teams are smart enough to take the bat out of Dunn's hands and make someone else beat them.

It's a perfect recipe for scoring fewer runs than this lineup should and for messing with what should be the main cog in the offense.

Yeah, but Dusty doesn't want Dunn walking. He wants him to be more aggressive. ;)

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 10:39 AM
It's looking more and more like Patterson will be the CFer and leading off.

From the Enquirer:

LOOKING LIKE LEADOFF: Corey Patterson is hitting .474 this spring, mostly in the leadoff spot.

"I always thought he'd be a good leadoff man," Baker said. "He's got all the tangibles to be a leadoff man. Maybe sometime you're not ready. When he came up, he didn't know how to bunt. They said he was going to be a 30-30 man and it got in his head."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080318/SPT04/803180358/

pahster
03-18-2008, 10:41 AM
"I always thought he'd be a good leadoff man," Baker said. "He's got all the tangibles to be a leadoff man."

Except for that whole "getting on base" business. :p:

*BaseClogger*
03-18-2008, 10:55 AM
"I always thought he'd be a good leadoff man," Baker said. "He's got all the tangibles to be a leadoff man. Maybe sometime you're not ready. When he came up, he didn't know how to bunt. They said he was going to be a 30-30 man and it got in his head."

'nuff said :rolleyes:

BRM
03-18-2008, 10:58 AM
My newly predicted opening day lineup:

CF Patterson
SS Castro
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
1B Hatteberg
C Ross

Sigh. I think I'm somehow still in denial that Dusty Baker is managing the Reds.

That's pretty sad. I'd rather see Hat and EE hitting 1-2 than Patterson and Castro, given the same players.

bucksfan2
03-18-2008, 11:16 AM
I really have a hard time believing that Castro will hit second. I would think Keppy is the type of guy that Baker likes. I really wouldn't mind a lineup of
CF Patterson
SS Keppy
RF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Jr
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Ross

The reality is that the Reds don't have a leadoff hitter. They also have quite a few left handed bats. Until Votto or Encarnacion earn it I place them late in the lineup to relieve some pressure.

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 11:23 AM
This team will be lucky to score 700 runs this season if Corey Patterson and Juan Castro/Alex Gonzalez hit 1-2 for any prolonged period of time. Even just a couple games with them at the top is bad. If the Reds feel Jay Bruce isn't ready and he needs a month or two in Louisville, fine. I have no problem with Patterson as the CF until Bruce is ready because Patterson is a defensive upgrade over Hopper and Freel, I do however have a problem with him leading off. He needs to bat lower in the order, like 7th.

westofyou
03-18-2008, 11:27 AM
John Maddon of the Rays is considered a sabre coach... I wonder how many ab's in the # 2 slot he'll give Jason Bartlett.

BTW the Reds have only scored less than 700 runs twice in the past 13 years, I don't see it happening this season myself.

BRM
03-18-2008, 11:32 AM
John Maddon of the Rays is considered a sabre coach... I wonder how many ab's in the # 2 slot he'll give Jason Bartlett.

BTW the Reds have only scored less than 700 runs twice in the past 13 years, I don't see it happening this season myself.

Interesting you bring that up. Bartlett has hit in the # 2 slot quite a bit this spring.

SteelSD
03-18-2008, 12:25 PM
Interesting you bring that up. Bartlett has hit in the # 2 slot quite a bit this spring.

Bartlett also owns a .371 MiLB OBP with peaks over .400 and he knows how to take a walk.

SteelSD
03-18-2008, 01:11 PM
Oh, and just for anyone who's even remotely surprised about the possibility of the dynamic duo of Patterson and Castro hitting 1/2, in 2005 Baker split up 644 leadoff PA between Neifi Perez, Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston, and Jose Macias. Hairston was at least somewhat excusable as he looked good in limited PA in 2005, but the result of that combination was a leadoff OBP of .299 in for the Cubs.

Those players also combined for 389 PA (Neifi with 268 PA) in the 2-slot.

The lack of high-lineup "base clogging" helped the 2005 Cubs lead the National League in percentage of Runs created by solo Home Runs. They also finished second to last in the league in Runs plated with Runners in Scoring position. That makes sense considering the Cubs were second to last in PA with RISP. Amazing what a lack of "base clogging" can do for a team.

If Patterson and Castro end up at the top of the lineup in the regular season, then welcome to your worst nightmare, folks.

bucksfan2
03-18-2008, 01:15 PM
Oh, and just for anyone who's even remotely surprised about the possibility of the dynamic duo of Patterson and Castro hitting 1/2, in 2005 Baker split up 644 leadoff PA between Neifi Perez, Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston, and Jose Macias. Hairston was at least somewhat excusable as he looked good in limited PA in 2005, but the result of that combination was a leadoff OBP of .299 in for the Cubs.

Those players also combined for 389 PA (Neifi with 268 PA) in the 2-slot.

The lack of high-lineup "base clogging" helped the 2005 Cubs lead the National League in percentage of Runs created by solo Home Runs. They also finished second to last in the league in Runs plated with Runners in Scoring position. That makes sense considering the Cubs were second to last in PA with RISP. Amazing what a lack of "base clogging" can do for a team.

If Patterson and Castro end up at the top of the lineup in the regular season, then welcome to your worst nightmare, folks.

Just to play devils advocate here but wasn't Patterson a highly thought of prospect who was a 5 tools player? IIRC Harriston was also a younger player with a high upside.

SteelSD
03-18-2008, 01:26 PM
Just to play devils advocate here but wasn't Patterson a highly thought of prospect who was a 5 tools player? IIRC Harriston was also a younger player with a high upside.

By 2005, Patterson had already posted MLB OBP numbers of .266, .284, .329, and .320. Those were backed by a MiLB OBP that was, at the time, under .335. Despite Patterson's skill set (speed/power), he was never well-suited for the leadoff spot.

As I mentioned, Hairston was more excusable, but he wasn't a younger player (29 years old in 2005).

And Neifi Perez gobbling up 387 PA in the 1 and 2 slots? Well, that's just indefensible.

traderumor
03-18-2008, 01:36 PM
If Patterson and Castro end up at the top of the lineup in the regular season, then welcome to your worst nightmare, folks.At least the nightmare of every questionable or disagreeable move that Dusty makes being railed at by those on this board who don't want him in the position he is can be avoided.

RedsManRick
03-18-2008, 01:54 PM
According to my quick and dirty study above (post #30), a full season of Patterson and Castro at the front of the lineup instead of at the back is worth about 35 runs -- to say nothing on whether they should in the lineup at all.

And if they play to their projections, Juan Castro would have to be Adam Everett to Keppinger's Derek Jeter to make up the difference between their bats.

westofyou
03-18-2008, 01:56 PM
According to my quick and dirty study above (post #30), a full season of Patterson and Castro at the front of the lineup instead of at the back is worth about 35 runs -- to say nothing on whether they should in the lineup at all.

And if they play to their projections, Juan Castro would have to be Adam Everett to Keppinger's Derek Jeter to make up the difference between their bats.

If Juan Castro gets 100 Ab's I'd be surprised.

Raisor
03-18-2008, 02:16 PM
If Juan Castro gets 100 Ab's I'd be surprised.

Isn't that what we hope every year?

flyer85
03-18-2008, 02:20 PM
If this organization can't figure out that Castro has no value, then is there really hope anyway? :D

TRF
03-18-2008, 02:30 PM
If this organization can't figure out that Castro has no value, then is there really hope anyway? :D

Juan Castro has tremendous value. Just not as a player.

Now as a coach, I think he'd be invaluable.

westofyou
03-18-2008, 02:34 PM
Isn't that what we hope every year?
95 and 89 the past 2 seasons.. I like that trend.

Raisor
03-18-2008, 02:38 PM
95 and 89 the past 2 seasons.. I like that trend.

Well, he had 251 TPA in 06, most with Minny of course.

I hope you're right, of course.

SteelSD
03-19-2008, 02:35 AM
At least the nightmare of every questionable or disagreeable move that Dusty makes being railed at by those on this board who don't want him in the position he is can be avoided.

I'm not even sure what that means.

SteelSD
03-19-2008, 02:41 AM
95 and 89 the past 2 seasons.. I like that trend.

Those AB rates are only minimized by trade and by injury. Should Castro be available to the Reds over a full season, he'll likely receive at least twice that many AB and probably more should Gonzalez be out for any amount of time.

And hey, Baker seems to think that he's a 2-slot hitter. Oh joy.

westofyou
03-19-2008, 10:52 AM
Should Castro be available to the Reds over a full season, he'll likely receive at least twice that many AB and probably more should Gonzalez be out for any amount of time.


If he can lift his arm above his shoulder, as it stands now he doesn't play in back to back games, let's hope that trend also continues.

RedlegJake
03-19-2008, 10:53 AM
I actually like Patterson in CF if he's batting 7th or 8th. I think he slots well there and his defense and speed are valuable. However, if Dusty insists on hitting him 1 or 2 I'm going to be very frustrated. No one has ever best less suited to lead off than 'he who never walks'.

Castro should be retired to a coaching role. How long can a guy live on rep? He hasn't even been a good defensive player for a couple of seasons now and could never hit. Are fans the only people who can see that?

KronoRed
03-19-2008, 03:01 PM
No one has ever best less suited to lead off than 'he who never walks'.


Deion Sanders? :D