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Kc61
03-16-2008, 06:11 PM
Oh, he'll be a Red soon and the starting first sacker, for sure. But he is hitting .139 this spring. Will the Reds start him in the lineup? On the bench? Or in Louisville, Ky?

He's probably pressing and will explode at some point. Just wonder if the Reds will want him to get on track at AAA.

I'm sure this is unpopular, but Votto is still young, I think it's a legitimate issue.

edabbs44
03-16-2008, 06:18 PM
I give the job to Votto. He was fine in September last year and deserves the shot.

If he flops after a solid month or even more (since I believe DB is of the belief that he is a slow starter), then maybe it's time to give this some thought. But this should be his job.

KronoRed
03-16-2008, 06:24 PM
With 12 pitchers not bringing Votto north would allow the Reds to keep Freel and Hopper around, with Freel as the IF guy.

Highlifeman21
03-16-2008, 06:30 PM
With 12 pitchers not bringing Votto north would allow the Reds to keep Freel and Hopper around, with Freel as the IF guy.

You must be channelling Dusty Baker with this logic...

KronoRed
03-16-2008, 06:32 PM
You must be channelling Dusty Baker with this logic...

Maybe Hairston can make the roster, he'd be a good 2 hitter.

RedLegSuperStar
03-16-2008, 06:35 PM
I still think Votto is your starting 1st baseman. He has proven his ability in the minors and his spring numbers shouldn't reflect his overall numbers. If he isn't traded.. he's starting at 1st base on March 31st, 2008 at 2:10PM

Spring~Fields
03-16-2008, 06:45 PM
I think the Reds might send both Votto and Bruce to the minors to get ready. Actually I think they really will but I don't like crow so I will hedge a bit.

Superdude
03-16-2008, 06:53 PM
He's 24 years old, has proven everything in the minors, and did a dandy of a job in September. To jerk him back to AAA at this point in his career because of a slump in spring training would be the epitome of mishandling a young player.

redsmetz
03-16-2008, 06:55 PM
I think Votto makes the club - I think Dusty has indicated that he understands he's a slow starter (as I recall, Baker said they told him he started last season at .185 and was hot through the bulk of the season).

mth123
03-16-2008, 07:56 PM
I think with the competition on this team, its possible Votto starts out in AAA. So with Hatte in the line-up, who is the LHPH?

The bench would be Javy, Freel, Hopper, Castro and ???. With Ross hurt they can't even carry 3 catchers and use Javy.

Cabrera, Gil, Hairston and A. Phillips are all RH. I'm guessing Drew Anderson (the OF) makes the team in Votto's place if it happens.

11larkin11
03-16-2008, 08:17 PM
What does Votto have left to prove in AAA? The worst for him is the bench up here. He's a notoriously slow starter, and I knew he would have a slow spring. Hopefully other teams are seeing Hatte rip the cover off the ball and make us a Lohse-Maloney-esque deal.

mth123
03-16-2008, 08:22 PM
What does Votto have left to prove in AAA? The worst for him is the bench up here. He's a notoriously slow starter, and I knew he would have a slow spring. Hopefully other teams are seeing Hatte rip the cover off the ball and make us a Lohse-Maloney-esque deal.

I want to see Votto start at 1B as well. I just wonder if the team will start him in AAA until he gets on a roll, while rewarding another player who had a good spring with that roster spot. He won't get on a roll sitting on the bench in Cincy.

reds44
03-16-2008, 08:50 PM
I think he'll make it, and you will see Hatteberg get alot of AB's while Votto goes through his annual April struggles. May and June will come around and Votto will get his swing working, and Hatteberg will be dealt before the deadline.

Caveat Emperor
03-16-2008, 08:55 PM
Dusty Baker will start Scott Hatteberg v. RHP until he no longer has the option to (i.e. he is traded to some other team).

I'd be shocked if Votto sees significant PT on the big league club until Hatteberg is dealt.

Steve4192
03-16-2008, 09:04 PM
What does Votto have left to prove in AAA?

That he can hit in April?

I love Votto, and believe he should be the Reds starting 1B, but he really needs to find a way to shake his springtime blues. This is the third year in a row where he has been TERRIBLE to start the season.

Superdude
03-16-2008, 09:07 PM
I just wonder if the team will start him in AAA until he gets on a roll, while rewarding another player who had a good spring with that roster spot.

We need to reward Hatteberg by trading him to a team that has room for him. Plus, like Larkin said, Hatteberg is no slouch and may be able to pull in a nice prospect or relief pitcher.

mth123
03-16-2008, 09:24 PM
We need to reward Hatteberg by trading him to a team that has room for him. Plus, like Larkin said, Hatteberg is no slouch and may be able to pull in a nice prospect or relief pitcher.

I'm for it too. Who wants him and what will they give?

4256 Hits
03-16-2008, 10:26 PM
I think with the competition on this team, its possible Votto starts out in AAA. So with Hatte in the line-up, who is the LHPH?

The bench would be Javy, Freel, Hopper, Castro and ???. With Ross hurt they can't even carry 3 catchers and use Javy.

Cabrera, Gil, Hairston and A. Phillips are all RH. I'm guessing Drew Anderson (the OF) makes the team in Votto's place if it happens.

Castro has started at 1st before! :eek:

The Reds could also put Freel or Castro at 3rd and play EdE at 1st.

KronoRed
03-17-2008, 12:39 AM
Dusty Baker will start Scott Hatteberg v. RHP until he no longer has the option to (i.e. he is traded to some other team).

I'd be shocked if Votto sees significant PT on the big league club until Hatteberg is dealt.

Scary, but if so it would be better he hang out in Louisville getting regular at bats.

The Bats are gonna be worth a drive to see in April.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 08:16 AM
We need to reward Hatteberg by trading him to a team that has room for him. Plus, like Larkin said, Hatteberg is no slouch and may be able to pull in a nice prospect or relief pitcher.

I can't see Hatteberg pulling much in.

OnBaseMachine
03-17-2008, 09:42 AM
As noted, Votto is a very slow starter. I'm not too worried about him, he does this every year it seems. Plus it's not like Votto is the only one not hitting this spring - Dunn, Griffey, EdE, Bruce are all struggling.

princeton
03-17-2008, 10:08 AM
Votto needs to earn this spot. If not, then it's good that the Reds have someone else that is earning it.

competitions like this make everyone play harder, and that's a good thing.

Meritocracies rock.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 10:10 AM
Votto needs to earn this spot. If not, then it's good that the Reds have someone else that is earning it.

competitions like this make everyone play harder, and that's a good thing.

Meritocracies rock.

Earn? Yes. Earn by necessarily outperforming in Spring Training? No.

westofyou
03-17-2008, 10:15 AM
Willie Greene had a great September once too.. handing the starting job to someone
with this line

.139/.262/.167

over someone with this line

.355/.459/.516

That should go over great in the clubhouse..... especially when the guy getting the job has 1 September and some Minor League cache and the other guy is the incumbent.

I like to make rookies win jobs, even the Jay Bruce's of the world, Votto has been playing like crap, that's not winning the job.. so why hand it to him outright?

Raisor
03-17-2008, 10:24 AM
If Votto isn't the starter to AAA he should go.

princeton
03-17-2008, 10:34 AM
Earn? Yes. Earn by necessarily outperforming in Spring Training? No.

earn by performing in Spring Training.

these are not great pitchers that Votto is not hitting against. A lot of these guys are going to AAA and AA, yet he's not hitting them.

Reds will give him more opportunities, but can't give him the job. He has to show that he can club the ball.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 10:39 AM
Willie Greene had a great September once too.. handing the starting job to someone
with this line

.139/.262/.167

over someone with this line

.355/.459/.516

That should go over great in the clubhouse..... especially when the guy getting the job has 1 September and some Minor League cache and the other guy is the incumbent.

I like to make rookies win jobs, even the Jay Bruce's of the world, Votto has been playing like crap, that's not winning the job.. so why hand it to him outright?

Because he's done pretty much everything asked of him and deserves it. Sending him down will probably leave him a little sour with the organization as a whole, which could lead to animosity from him and the other prospects the Reds have in the system.

Remember when Upton and Young were all bent about how TB was keeping them in the minors?

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 10:49 AM
Because he's done pretty much everything asked of him and deserves it. Sending him down will probably leave him a little sour with the organization as a whole

Joey seems like a level-headed guy. Given how he has performed this spring, I think he will understand if the Reds send him back to AAA.

Let him have his normal crappy April in Louisville and then bring him back to the bigs once his bat wakes up.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 10:51 AM
Joey seems like a level-headed guy.

Given how he has performed this spring, I think he will understand if the Reds send him back to AAA.

I thought Votto made a comment a little while back that worried me in this area.

Might be wrong.

westofyou
03-17-2008, 10:59 AM
Because he's done pretty much everything asked of him and deserves it.

I thought they were asking him to hit?

Currently he is not, thus he isn't doing the main thing they are asking him to do and if it continues he probably will deserve to be sent down.

blumj
03-17-2008, 11:01 AM
Willie Greene had a great September once too.. handing the starting job to someone
with this line

.139/.262/.167

over someone with this line

.355/.459/.516

That should go over great in the clubhouse..... especially when the guy getting the job has 1 September and some Minor League cache and the other guy is the incumbent.

I like to make rookies win jobs, even the Jay Bruce's of the world, Votto has been playing like crap, that's not winning the job.. so why hand it to him outright?

Neither spring training stats nor september call-up stats correlate with anything. There's no logical reason for using either as even a factor in making these decisions, never mind making them the key factor.

princeton
03-17-2008, 11:06 AM
Neither spring training stats nor september call-up stats correlate with anything.

positive stats aren't great predictors.

negative ones are often telling you something.

FWIW, I suspect that Votto will have a fine season. If he ever starts hitting, that is.

westofyou
03-17-2008, 11:07 AM
Neither spring training stats nor september call-up stats correlate with anything. There's no logical reason for using either as even a factor in making these decisions, never mind making them the key factor.

I agree, so it will be his approach and reaction to adversary in light of his poor performance that matters too.

That's a wildcard.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 11:33 AM
I thought they were asking him to hit?

Currently he is not, thus he isn't doing the main thing they are asking him to do and if it continues he probably will deserve to be sent down.

Let him get his swings in with the big team. Votto is more a part of the future of this franchise than Hatteberg is. Announce him as the starter, maybe he loosens up and starts to mash. If he sucks through April, then reassess.

bucksfan2
03-17-2008, 11:38 AM
Could Votto being a slow starter be due to him being from Canada? I wonder because it seems every year he starts slow and growing up in Canada your season would have to start much later than it would elsewhere.

princeton
03-17-2008, 11:39 AM
Votto is more a part of the future of this franchise than Hatteberg is.

wouldn't shock to see Votto go for pitching

but he'll need to hit for that to happen, too

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 11:41 AM
wouldn't shock to see Votto go for pitching

but he'll need to hit for that to happen, too

That would be a huge mistake, unless you are talking very good pitching.

blumj
03-17-2008, 11:54 AM
negative ones are often telling you something.
Not in such a small sample. They don't tell you if a player is good enough or if he's ready enough. They really just tell you he didn't get off to a hot start this spring. Which is really, really meaningless information. About as meaningless as how long his hair is or whether he wears his pantlegs so his socks show or if he has a cute sister. There is literally no useful information in it at all. I know, people don't want to believe this, for some reason, the idea that a guy should be able to hit his way onto a roster during spring training seems to be important to people, but there is absolutely no logical reason for major league teams to assemble their rosters this way.

princeton
03-17-2008, 12:00 PM
Not in such a small sample.

sure, in small samples. Especially when you look at how it's happening. We're not hearing the typical Dustyspeak: that man is hitting the ball hard everywhere, they just aren't dropping. Instead it's that he's a slow starter. Well, April is an important month, and it's tough to think that he'll be hitting major leaguers in April if he's not even getting hard outs off AA pitchers in March.

jojo
03-17-2008, 12:03 PM
Sending Votto to Louisville would free a spot for the third catcher.

Chip R
03-17-2008, 12:05 PM
Could Votto being a slow starter be due to him being from Canada? I wonder because it seems every year he starts slow and growing up in Canada your season would have to start much later than it would elsewhere.


Good question. I have been thinking the same thing. But some guys are notoriously slow starters. Larkin was like that. It's bad for a young player since ST stats mean lots more for them than it does for the vets.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 12:08 PM
I like to make rookies win jobs, even the Jay Bruce's of the world, Votto has been playing like crap, that's not winning the job.. so why hand it to him outright?because he has upside that Hatteberg has never had. The odds are greatly in favor of Votto having the better season. Playing well or playing poorly in ST generally has little bearing on what happens in the season. EE was great last year in the spring yet got off to a horrid start. The way I look at is that Votto is getting one his slumps out of the way.

Chip R
03-17-2008, 12:10 PM
Sending Votto to Louisville would free a spot for the third catcher.


Thanks, Jerry. :D

blumj
03-17-2008, 12:28 PM
because he has upside that Hatteberg has never had.
Just to be fair to the young Hatteberg, even though it has no bearing on anything now, he probably should have been considered someone with considerable upside when he was a young catcher with that much ability to get on base.

NC Reds
03-17-2008, 12:37 PM
I wouldn't disregard a terrific September performance by Votto. He was facing big league pitching by and large. Let him use this spring to work out the kinks. He projects better than Hatte at this point.

princeton
03-17-2008, 12:39 PM
because he has upside that Hatteberg has never had. The odds are greatly in favor of Votto having the better season.

there's a lot of downside, and I disagree about the odds.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 12:43 PM
there's a lot of downside, and I disagree about the odds.
PECOTA sees Votto's 60th percentile projection as better than Hatty's 90th in terms of VORP and also grade out Votto as the far superior defender (in FRAA +6 to -4).

In terms of WARP Votto's 25th percentile is better than Hatty's 90th percentile.

Hatty could end up being the better player but in his age 38 season ...

princeton
03-17-2008, 12:50 PM
PECOTA ...

is already out of date

pedro
03-17-2008, 12:52 PM
Votto's a nice player and he'll be a pretty decent half of a 1st base platoon but I think he is incredibly overrated here on Redszone. I have very little confidence that he's going to hit LHP well enough to be an everyday player.

princeton
03-17-2008, 12:57 PM
I have very little confidence that he's going to hit LHP well enough to be an everyday player.

spring would have been a good time to flash that, but he's not even hitting RHPers right now.

from an organizational standpoint, the Reds have Daniel Dorn in the high minors, and Dorn probably can't play in the OF if Dunn and Bruce are out there too. If Dunn is signed, then Hatte could keep spot warm for Dorn, making Votto available.

I have to say, though, that the Reds thus far have maintained Dorn in the OF, and probably will until Dunn's contract status is resolved. Dorn can play LF if Dunn is moved.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:03 PM
Dorn can play LF if Dunn is moved.of course wether he will ever hit enough to play, much less LF, is a huge question mark(not much evidence that Dorn given his age/level will be an impact bat at the MLB level).

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 01:08 PM
Reds will give him more opportunities, but can't give him the job. He has to show that he can club the ball.

Like he did in September in the majors last year or like he did in AAA last year? 60 PA in Spring Training are not enough to judge the readiness of anybody -- at least not quantitatively. His entire track record suggests he's ready to hit in the major leagues.

If you send him down to AAA and he starts hitting again, what do you learn? If he doesn't, what do you learn? Not much in either case I'd suggest. He needs a few hundred MLB plate appearances and has already done enough to earn them.

Dunn is hitting .200/.355/.320
EE is hitting .182/.289/.303
Drew Anderson is hitting .406/.486/.500

If there's a scouting based reason that says Votto isn't prepared to hit major league hitting, then fine, send him to AAA to work on it. But the numbers are meaningless.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 01:08 PM
spring would have been a good time to flash that, but he's not even hitting RHPers right now.

from an organizational standpoint, the Reds have Daniel Dorn in the high minors, and Dorn probably can't play in the OF if Dunn and Bruce are out there too. If Dunn is signed, then Hatte could keep spot warm for Dorn, making Votto available.

I have to say, though, that the Reds thus far have maintained Dorn in the OF, and probably will until Dunn's contract status is resolved. Dorn can play LF if Dunn is moved.

I'd rather take my chances with a guy who has hit AAA pitching over a guy who has 108 PAs above A ball.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:09 PM
If you send him down to AAA and he starts hitting again, what do you learn? If he doesn't, what do you learn? Not much in either case I'd suggest. hunches are better :thumbup:

princeton
03-17-2008, 01:17 PM
If you send him down to AAA and he starts hitting again, what do you learn?.

that he's worth calling up again.

if he doesn't, then he's not.

you try to make this game so difficult. It's a very easy game.

princeton
03-17-2008, 01:20 PM
I'd rather take my chances with a guy who has hit AAA pitching over a guy who has 108 PAs above A ball.

yes, it won't happen immediately, but things do change quickly. Keep an eye on Dorn, on Dunn's contract, and on whatever holes might be filled by dealing Votto. Reds are all about trading out of surplus and into need.

if Dunn signs, then Votto is perhaps a surplus. But it depends on Dorn, who is just a smidge behind Rosales.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 01:22 PM
that he's worth calling up again.

if he doesn't, then he's not.

you try to make this game so difficult. It's a very easy game.

Is his skill set going to change much over the next 90 days. Him hitting for a month or two in April -- or not hitting for a month or two in April -- doesn't change anything he's done in the past which all suggests he's ready.

A slump doesn't make him not worth calling up again and doesn't change the evaluation of his skill level and major league readiness. If you need to see more from him in AAA before you're ready to call him up, then frankly it doesn't matter what he's doing right now. Just start him in AAA and check back in June. Neither his last 50 PA nor his next 50 PA tell us much at all about how ready he is. Funny how all of the sudden you're beholden to the "data".

princeton
03-17-2008, 01:26 PM
A slump doesn't make him not worth calling up


it does, actually. You're trying to make the game too hard again. Really, all it takes is some common sense.

Once he swings well again, even if it's just in a couple of games, your AAA manager calls you up and tells you that it's time. It's a very simple process.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 01:28 PM
His entire track record suggests he's ready to hit in the major leagues.

... in May.

His entire track record suggests that he will be an offensive black hole in April, and his performance thus far in March has done nothing to disprove that.

Send to him to Louisville until his bat wakes up. A little wake up call about how tenuous a MLB job can be might give him a little bit more appreciation of how important the first month of the season can be.

westofyou
03-17-2008, 01:32 PM
What's wrong with using the options a player has? What's wrong with using his performance as the carrot for sticking in the big leagues?

It's a good thing to have those tools, ignore them and you just build the same crap time after time.

pedro
03-17-2008, 01:35 PM
His entire track record suggests he's ready to hit in the major leagues.


No, his entire track records suggests he might be ready to hit RHP in the major leagues.

Let's not gild the lily. His OPS in AAA was .859.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:36 PM
What's wrong with using his performance as the carrot for sticking in the big leagues?
.Why are 35 ST ABs more important than 80+ september ABs?

westofyou
03-17-2008, 01:37 PM
Why are 35 ST ABs more important than 80+ september ABs?

They aren't I find both specious.

But I also don't fear the effect of a month in the ML can do to a guy.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 01:40 PM
Why are 35 ST ABs more important than 80+ september ABs?

Because those 35 at bats are more indicative of how he is hitting right now AND because they fall in line with the data from 2006/2007 that shows, for some strange reason, Votto can't a hit a lick until mid-May.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:41 PM
They aren't I find both specious.
then why the does he have to "earn it" in ST if the ABs don't mean anything?

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:42 PM
Because those 35 at bats are more indicative of how he is hitting right now ... just like they were for EE in 2007? Manzanillo and the Donut King once had goo numbers not too long ago.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 01:45 PM
... just like they were for EE in 2007? Manzanillo and the Donut King once had goo numbers not too long ago.

Nice of you to completely ignore the gorilla in the room (and the second half of my response).

westofyou
03-17-2008, 01:47 PM
then why the does he have to "earn it" in ST if the ABs don't mean anything?

Well, according to Welsh he looks horrible.. so I assume that's what they'll use as the final judging criteria

But he also said he'd keep him up.... until he tanked for at least a month

FWIW Votto's September is below... he shows a sample of that for a week and then he'll change his numbers and the way he's being viewed, but he's got to show something


Oppon G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO AVG OBP SLG
CHI N 6 21 2 4 1 0 1 5 0 0 2 .190 .190 .381
HOU N 3 13 2 4 2 0 1 1 0 0 2 .308 .308 .692
MIL N 6 20 2 8 3 0 1 6 3 1 3 .400 .478 .700
NY N 2 4 2 3 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 .750 .800 1.500
STL N 3 8 1 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 3 .375 .444 .500
SF N 4 18 2 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 .278 .278 .278

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:47 PM
Nice of you to completely ignore the gorilla in the room (and the second half of my response).and that means he will have a slow start this year?

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:48 PM
Well, according to Welsh he looks horriblewell that settles it.

WHo doesn't look bad when they are slumping?

westofyou
03-17-2008, 01:51 PM
well that settles it.

WHo doesn't look bad when they are slumping?

So... what would you use as the criteria?

Not stats, not guys watching him... what to use to base your opinion on?

The Reds play a mess of games in April, what decides if a player gets the spot or not?

Magic 8 Ball?

RFS62
03-17-2008, 01:56 PM
it does, actually. You're trying to make the game too hard again. Really, all it takes is some common sense.

Once he swings well again, even if it's just in a couple of games, your AAA manager calls you up and tells you that it's time. It's a very simple process.


... in May.

His entire track record suggests that he will be an offensive black hole in April, and his performance thus far in March has done nothing to disprove that.

Send to him to Louisville until his bat wakes up. A little wake up call about how tenuous a MLB job can be might give him a little bit more appreciation of how important the first month of the season can be.


What's wrong with using the options a player has? What's wrong with using his performance as the carrot for sticking in the big leagues?

It's a good thing to have those tools, ignore them and you just build the same crap time after time.


I agree with all of this.

Mr. Hat has earned the starting job to date. Votto has to play every day to continue to develop.

I don't think anyone thinks he won't get it together.

He'll be back, the position is his to lose.

princeton
03-17-2008, 01:57 PM
then why the does he have to "earn it" in ST?


Joey Votto didn't have to win the job, but he certainly could lose it. And so far, he's losing it. If you give a job to a loser, then you end up with more Homer Baileys and fewer Johnny Cuetos.

This isn't about Joey Votto. That's where you're mistaken. It's much bigger than that.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 01:58 PM
Not stats, not guys watching him... what to use to base your opinion on?Uh, what they generally use ... a minor league track record(good in his case for both age and level) that says he can hit. I'll ignore the small sample sizes of September and ST.

What do you want to use since September and ST are specious?

OnBaseMachine
03-17-2008, 02:00 PM
Jeff Brantley says Votto doesn't look bad. Says he's doing the same things he did in September.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:03 PM
ST performance is a poor predictor. Using to make decisions, unless their is an absence of other data, is setting yourself up for trouble. In the case of guys like Volquez/Cueto/Bailey ST is being used to differentiate them although I would argue that 2007 data says that both Volquez and Cueto were closer to being ready than Bailey(who had a bad 2007 no matter how some would like to excuse it).

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 02:04 PM
and that means he will have a slow start this year?

Why should this year be any different?

His March stats have certainly not filled me with confidence that this will be the year he snaps out of his April malaise.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 02:06 PM
In the case of guys like Volquez/Cueto/Bailey ST is being used to differentiate them although I would argue that 2007 data says that both Volquez and Cueto were closer to being ready than Bailey(who had a bad 2007 no matter how some would like to excuse it).

Using the same logic, Bailey should have been a no-brainer to start the 2007 season in the Reds rotation based off of his awesome 2006 stats.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:08 PM
Why should this year be any different?then by that standard, the Reds should sit Jr as well (2007 first month 770 OPS, 2006 - 767, 2005 - 681, 2004 - 722)

princeton
03-17-2008, 02:10 PM
Uh, what they generally use ... a minor league track record(good in his case for both age and level) that says he can hit.

"they"?

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:13 PM
"they"?well if the Reds don't use that then I have no idea why Jay Brice played on 3 levels last year ... then again maybe he just really looks like a ballplayer when he is in uniform.

M2
03-17-2008, 02:21 PM
Frankly, I don't see where it's all that radical a decision to keep Votto in AAA until his bat wakes up. The notion that he'll just switch it on the second the games start to count strikes me as bizarre. It's not like he's not trying at the moment.

The way to maximize production from the 1B spot might well be four weeks of Hatteberg followed by five months of Votto.

nate
03-17-2008, 02:24 PM
I think it's fair enough for Joey to work out his game in AAA. Get back into a groove and come back ready to play. Plus, it lets the Reds showcase Mr. Hat controversy-free.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:31 PM
The way to maximize production from the 1B spot might well be four weeks of Hatteberg followed by five months of Votto.
trying to time the market is generally a good way to lose money. If the Reds believe Hatty is the better player then give him the job, if they believe it is Votto then give it to him but don't base the decision of who is hot or who is slumping in ST. Those kind of decision making has continually bit the Reds in the but in recent years. Find your best players and let them play. I believe it was "the Book" where they demonstrated that a hot streak is no predictor of near term continued success and cold streak were neither predictors of future struggles.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 02:31 PM
Using the same logic, Bailey should have been a no-brainer to start the 2007 season in the Reds rotation based off of his awesome 2006 stats.

Homer pitched 68 innings above A ball going into 2006. Votto currently has over 1000 PAs above A ball.

pedro
03-17-2008, 02:33 PM
Homer pitched 68 innings above A ball going into 2006. Votto currently has over 1000 PAs above A ball.

and a sub .700 OPS against LHP.

he's hardly on the "superstar" path.

M2
03-17-2008, 02:37 PM
trying to time the market is generally a good way to lose money. If the Reds believe Hatty is the better player then give him the job, if they believe it is Votto then give it to him but don't base the decision of who is hot or who is slumping in ST. Those kind of decision making has continually bit the Reds in the but in recent years. Find your best players and let them play. I believe it was "the Book" where they demonstrated that a hot streak is no predictor of near term continued success and cold streak were neither predictors of future struggles.

I agree with you, right up until the point where Joey Votto's bat isn't looking ready at the moment. Not ready at the moment is not ready at the moment. My strong preference would be to have him ready at the moment, but he isn't. Once he gets ready, then I'm all for sticking him in the lineup and leaving him there, but I see no reason to start him off in the majors when he's out of synch and Hatteberg's on hand as a perfectly viable alternative.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:40 PM
Joey Votto's bat isn't looking ready at the moment. Votto is in a ST slump. Hatty is currently hot.
Regression to the mean is always the most likely thing to occur moving forward.

pedro
03-17-2008, 02:46 PM
Votto is in a ST slump. Hatty is currently hot.
Regression to the mean is always the most likely thing to occur moving forward.

In 2007 Hatteberg had a better OPS at the major league level than Votto did at AAA.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 02:46 PM
and a sub .700 OPS against LHP.

he's hardly on the "superstar" path.

The guy cemented in the 3 slot hit .735 OPS vs LHPs last season with a .671 in 2006.

I don't care what the back of his jersey says.

But getting back to your point, maybe Cincy should have tried to get a platoon partner for Votto in the offseason. That would have alleviated any LHP concerns.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 02:47 PM
In 2007 Hatteberg had a better OPS at the major league level than Votto did at AAA.

Hatteberg also is most likely a product of his environment.

I don't know the answer to this, but what was Votto's ballpark factor in AAA?

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 02:48 PM
then by that standard, the Reds should sit Jr as well (2007 first month 770 OPS, 2006 - 767, 2005 - 681, 2004 - 722)

There is a big difference between a future hall of famer putting up a 750+ OPS and an untested kid putting up a sub-500 OPS. When Griffey goes in a funk, he is still just slightly below league average. When Votto goes in a funk, he is Juan Castro.

M2
03-17-2008, 02:49 PM
Votto is in a ST slump. Hatty is currently hot.
Regression to the mean is always the most likely thing to occur moving forward.

Hatteberg's a quality bat. He's not hot, he's good.

Votto is cold, and once he progresses back towards his norm I'd give him the gig. Until then, I wouldn't. Sticking him in the lineup and waiting for him to heat up is putting the cart before the horse.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 02:53 PM
Hatteberg also is most likely a product of his environment.

More likely, he was a victim of bad luck on the road.

home BABIP: 393
road BABIP: 244

Hatteberg's 149 point difference between his home and road BABIP was the largest such drop in the majors.

pedro
03-17-2008, 02:56 PM
Hatteberg also is most likely a product of his environment.

I don't know the answer to this, but what was Votto's ballpark factor in AAA?

well, since you like to point this out and then follow up with how well Votto did in september I'd like to point out that Votto OPS'd .605 outside of the GABP last year.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 02:58 PM
I don't know the answer to this, but what was Votto's ballpark factor in AAA?they are in James 2008 Gold Mine. Hatty is almost entirely a product of GABP and a platoon(OPS 1017 in GABP, 717 on the road). There are a number of Reds that the GABP park effect applies to ... but nobody like Hatty.

Hatty 1017 - 717 for 2007, 935 - 712 for 2006 (a bit of track record).
Phillips 811 - 821
Jr 940 - 802
Dunn 965 - 916

TRF
03-17-2008, 02:59 PM
I can't see Hatteberg pulling much in.

Conine brought in 2 prospects. I'd take two 20 year olds for Mr. Hatte.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 03:00 PM
they are in James 2008 Gold Mine. Hatty is almost entirely a product of GABP and a platoon(OPS 1017 in GABP, 717 on the road). There are a number of Reds that the GABP park effect applies to ... but nobody like Hatty.

Check his home/road BABIP splits and you'll see that the difference is mostly due to dumb luck.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:04 PM
Conine brought in 2 prospects. I'd take two 20 year olds for Mr. Hatte.

Conine brought in 2 lesser prospects during a pennant race.

I'd rather have the $1.5MM and 4 months of OTJ training for Votto than 4 months of Hatteberg and 2 second rate guys.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 03:04 PM
Also, for those of you on the 'Hatteberg is a product of the GABP' train, keep in mind that 14 of the Reds first 23 games are at home. Give Votto three weeks to work out the kinks in Louisville while Hatteberg mashes pitchers at the GABP.

jojo
03-17-2008, 03:05 PM
More likely, he was a victim of bad luck on the road.

home BABIP: 393
road BABIP: 244

Hatteberg's 149 point difference between his home and road BABIP was the largest such drop in the majors.

Or he was the recipient of really good luck at home in '07.....

He had similar splits in '06 BTW.

Hattie is a platoon player best used in his home park.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:05 PM
More likely, he was a victim of bad luck on the road.

home BABIP: 393
road BABIP: 244

Hatteberg's 149 point difference between his home and road BABIP was the largest such drop in the majors.

2006 was the same. Maybe it's the park.

Or maybe he just walks under a lot of ladders when he is on the road.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:06 PM
well, since you like to point this out and then follow up with how well Votto did in september I'd like to point out that Votto OPS'd .605 outside of the GABP last year.

We know that Hatteberg is a bum on the road. He has proven this for 2 years running.

At least we're not sure about Votto.

Does that help?

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 03:08 PM
We know that Hatteberg is a bum on the road. He has proven this for 2 years running

We know that Votto is a bum in April. He has proven this for 2 years running.

;)

M2
03-17-2008, 03:10 PM
Hattie is a platoon player best used in his home park.

Agreed. And Votto is a kid best promoted when his bat wakes up.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 03:10 PM
We know that Votto is a bum in April. He has proven it for 2 years running.

;)as is Jr with the Reds.:eek:

flyer85
03-17-2008, 03:15 PM
Agreed. And Votto is a kid best promoted when his bat wakes up.excepting for the research(IRIC it was it was in "The Book") that showed that neither cold streaks or hot streaks is any kind of a predictor.

jojo
03-17-2008, 03:16 PM
Agreed. And Votto is a kid best promoted when his bat wakes up.

I think he's best used, well, by using him. He's either better than Hatteberg, or he's not. If he's not, then he should go to Louisville. If the decision is based upon 36 at bats in Florida, there is a real good chance the decision would be wrong.

Chip R
03-17-2008, 03:16 PM
Hatteberg's a quality bat. He's not hot, he's good.

Votto is cold, and once he progresses back towards his norm I'd give him the gig. Until then, I wouldn't. Sticking him in the lineup and waiting for him to heat up is putting the cart before the horse.


I can see that but let's say you send Votto down and make Hatteberg the 1st baseman and he hits like usual or he is hitting even better. Votto goes down, finds his groove and stays down there because Hatteberg is hitting well.

BRM
03-17-2008, 03:17 PM
I can see that but let's say you send Votto down and make Hatteberg the 1st baseman and he hits like usual or he is hitting even better. Votto goes down, finds his groove and stays down there because Hatteberg is hitting well.

I think that's very likely. I can't see the Reds bringing Votto up if Hat is hitting well.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:21 PM
I think that's very likely. I can't see the Reds bringing Votto up if Hat is hitting well.

Then they need their heads examined.

M2
03-17-2008, 03:21 PM
excepting for the research(IRIC it was it was in "The Book") that showed that neither cold streaks or hot streaks is any kind of a predictor.

Predictor schmedictor. His swing's not in order at the moment and until it is he shouldn't be handed a major league starting gig.

All he's got to do is hit. Once he starts doing it, you'll find I'm 100% behind making him the starting 1B. This has got nothing to do with guessing who'll be the better hitter over 162 games, it's about recognizing that Votto's having trouble at the moment.

westofyou
03-17-2008, 03:23 PM
it's about recognizing that Votto's having trouble at the moment.

And using the hammer of his options to leverage a season that has successful months and a flexible roster.

BRM
03-17-2008, 03:23 PM
Then they need their heads examined.

I know what you mean.

M2
03-17-2008, 03:24 PM
I can see that but let's say you send Votto down and make Hatteberg the 1st baseman and he hits like usual or he is hitting even better. Votto goes down, finds his groove and stays down there because Hatteberg is hitting well.

I'd still promote Votto, but in general you've got to love having problems like that.

princeton
03-17-2008, 03:25 PM
I can see that but let's say you send Votto down and make Hatteberg the 1st baseman and he hits like usual or he is hitting even better. Votto goes down, finds his groove and stays down there because Hatteberg is hitting well.

oh, you can order a kid to play. The old man needs time off, the old man can't hit on the road, etc.

But if you do that, then he can't stink. So activate him against a bad pitcher, and activate him when he's not stinking. He may still stink, but to activate him when he can't hit water falling out of a boat is dumb.

jojo
03-17-2008, 03:25 PM
And using the hammer of his options to leverage a season that has successful months and a flexible roster.

Hammer? I thought he was supposed to drop kick something..... :cool:

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:28 PM
Does the old "luck/BABIP" excuse count in ST? Maybe he is just unlucky.

I've seen that excuse used before.

M2
03-17-2008, 03:30 PM
He's either better than Hatteberg, or he's not.

If only the world were so black and white. He should be better than Hatteberg once he finds his hitting stride. Until then the Reds have Hatteberg.

As soon as someone can tell me that Votto IS swinging a good bat (not that he SHOULD swing a good bat or that past performance INDICATES he should swing a good bat), I'll be for making him the starting 1B.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 03:30 PM
Predictor schmedictor. His swing's not in order at the moment the certainty is this Votto(or any player) who is in a slump, will find it and regress to the mean. Hatty is hot, he will lose it and regress to the mean. Any time I see a guy playing way below or way above the norm ... my thought isn't player A or B will continue on the present trajectory, instead it is they will regress to the mean.

When a guy is slumpling my thought is- a hot streak is coming and when a guy is streaking my thought is that a slump is coming.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 03:32 PM
Using the same logic, Bailey should have been a no-brainer to start the 2007 season in the Reds rotation based off of his awesome 2006 stats.

It's not just what, but when and where. A 21 year old SP with just 68.0 IP at AA and a 24 year old 1B with 1258 PA at AA, AAA, and in the majors.

Bailey wasn't ready in 2007, both due to a lack of experience in the high minors and a scouting report which suggested as much. Votto is ready, at least for a platoon, as suggested by his dominance in the higher minors, his success in a cup coffee in 2007, and a scouting report which suggests as much. Apples and Oranges.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 03:33 PM
More likely, he was a victim of bad luck on the road.

home BABIP: 393
road BABIP: 244

Hatteberg's 149 point difference between his home and road BABIP was the largest such drop in the majors.

His road BABIP is closer to "normal" than his home BABIP. Normalize them both and Hatteberg performs worse overall. He was an all-star at home and a scrub on the road.

I don't mind letting Votto ride out his slow start in AAA and letting Hatteberg continue to build some value during an April schedule that is home-heavy. That's perfectly logical. I just don't buy that Votto somehow isn't "ready" and that his cold ST is somehow evidence to such.

M2
03-17-2008, 03:36 PM
the certainty is this Votto(or any player) who is in a slump, will find it and regress to the mean.

Yeah, I know how it works in theory. What you keep avoiding is that you've got no idea WHEN that regression will take place. And until it starts I'm going to want Scott Hatteberg at 1B.

Chip R
03-17-2008, 03:40 PM
oh, you can order a kid to play. The old man needs time off, the old man can't hit on the road, etc.

But if you do that, then he can't stink. So activate him against a bad pitcher, and activate him when he's not stinking. He may still stink, but to activate him when he can't hit water falling out of a boat is dumb.


Ideally that's what would happen. But I could see a situation play out like last year where Votto stays in LOU till Sept. and then we go through all this again if he doesn't hit well in ST of 09.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 03:45 PM
Yeah, I know how it works in theory. What you keep avoiding is that you've got no idea WHEN that regression will take place. what I do know is that the farther you get from the mean the more likely it is to start ... and that works from both ends. You can wait until it starts but if the start is what you are waiting for then a hot game should be enough to indicate the commencement.

bucksfan2
03-17-2008, 03:46 PM
the certainty is this Votto(or any player) who is in a slump, will find it and regress to the mean. Hatty is hot, he will lose it and regress to the mean. Any time I see a guy playing way below or way above the norm ... my thought isn't player A or B will continue on the present trajectory, instead it is they will regress to the mean.

When a guy is slumpling my thought is- a hot streak is coming and when a guy is streaking my thought is that a slump is coming.

Where is that mean? I think that is the big question. I don't think there is anyone that will tell you that Hatty is more talented or has more upside than Votto. You have to play Votto. Everyone goes into slumps and they need to learn how to bust out of a slump. I don't think the recipe to get out of a slump is to go out and face lesser competition.

I may be giving Dusty a little more credit than others but he has been through many spring trainings. He knows how important they are but he also knows what kind of smoke screen they can create. I think Dusty will trust his impressions and what he sees more than what the numbers say in the spring.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 03:50 PM
I don't mind letting Votto ride out his slow start in AAA and letting Hatteberg continue to build some value during an April schedule that is home-heavy. That's perfectly logical.

That is all I am preaching.

I am all for getting him back to the Majors the moment his bat warms up.

edabbs44
03-17-2008, 03:53 PM
Ideally that's what would happen. But I could see a situation play out like last year where Votto stays in LOU till Sept. and then we go through all this again if he doesn't hit well in ST of 09.

This is why I was against picking up his option.

Steve4192
03-17-2008, 03:53 PM
what I do know is that the farther you get from the mean the more likely it is to start

Not true.

Independent trials and whatnot.

If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it is still no more than 50:50 proposition that it will come up tails on the 51st flip.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 03:59 PM
Not true.

Independent trials and whatnot.

If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it is still no more than 50:50 proposition that it will come up tails on the 51st flip.

The flip side of this point is understanding what heating up again looks like.

If he's a .300 hitter and goes 10 for 50 (and you still believe him to be a .300 hitter), then the mean projection for any X number of hits/ab is .300. If he goes 3 for his next 10, his average will only be .217, but technically he will be back on track.

If you want to wait for his season average (or whatever stat) to fully regress, you could be in for a very long wait. If he hits .300 until the end of time, he'll never get back to .300 exactly.

Which begs the question, how far back do you look to see if a guy has broken out of a slump? It's somewhere between 1 PA and 100 -- but where?

flyer85
03-17-2008, 04:02 PM
slumps happen ... don't see what the issue is. Everyone has them, it doesn't mean a player has forgotten how to hit, just a like a hot streak doesn't mean someone has all of a sudden gotten better. The fact is that Votto does not have a high K rate this spring which means that he likely is more a victim of not finding any holes than swinging rather poorly. Trying to time slumps/streaks is a sure why to get yourself in trouble. The fact that Votto is struggling and Hatty is hot indicates very little about what is likely to happen on opening day, in the first week or the first month. Slump and streaks are for the most part simply randomness at work within the dataset.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 04:04 PM
Not true.

Independent trials and whatnot.

If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it is still no more than 50:50 proposition that it will come up tails on the 51st flip.the fact that each trial is random does not change the fact that as the number of events grow the probablity is that that the data will converge toward the mean.

M2
03-17-2008, 04:08 PM
what I do know is that the farther you get from the mean the more likely it is to start ... and that works from both ends. You can wait until it starts but if the start is what you are waiting for then a hot game should be enough to indicate the commencement.

I'd say make it a week. Though in this case I'd be more interested in qualitative evidence than quantitative evidence. Is he making consistent hard contact? Does he have his swing mechanics together? If those are "yes" answers, then I'd make him the 1B regardless of his ST numbers. However I'm under the distinct impression that isn't the case at the moment.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 04:12 PM
However I'm under the distinct impression that isn't the case at the moment.I have no idea as I have not seen a single AB.

But if one is willing to invest in a slump by Votto than must not one also be willing to invest in the hot streaks of guys like Patterson/Green/Bako/Castro and ride the crest of those guys?

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 04:13 PM
the fact that each trial is random does not change the fact that as the number of events grow the probablity is that that the data will converge toward the mean.

The average of all observed values will converge as you move towards infinity, sure. However, the likelihood of the remaining outcomes remains at the mean. Given a finite number of observations and a cold streak to start, the observed mean after x observations will likely be less than true mean -- that's what regression to the mean is all about.

So if you are a .300 hitter who starts the season 0-50, after 500 at bats your most likely batting average is .270 -- the result of hitting .300 the rest of the season.

(0 +.3*450) / (50 +450) => 135 / 500 = .270

The more at bats you have after that initial cold streak, the closer and closer to .300 you get. When you reach infinity, you get back to .300.

But going 0 for 50 does NOT make you likely to go .333 over your next 450 at bats.

bucksfan2
03-17-2008, 04:13 PM
The flip side of this point is understanding what heating up again looks like.

If he's a .300 hitter and goes 10 for 50 (and you still believe him to be a .300 hitter), then the mean projection for any X number of hits/ab is .300. If he goes 3 for his next 10, his average will only be .217, but technically he will be back on track.

If you want to wait for his season average (or whatever stat) to fully regress, you could be in for a very long wait. If he hits .300 until the end of time, he'll never get back to .300 exactly.

Which begs the question, how far back do you look to see if a guy has broken out of a slump? It's somewhere between 1 PA and 100 -- but where?

Agree with the statistical analysis. I think that "heating up" can be a visual sign even when the batter isn't getting hits. I think you look at the
1) The actual at bat. Is the batter having a good at bat? Is he using the entire field? Is he hitting the ball hard?
2) Does he look comfortable in the batters box? Hitters who are struggling tend to over exagerate things. I think you look for someone who is relaxed in the box.
3) The attitude. A lot of playrs will be down when they aren't hitting the ball well. You will see a more confident player when they are seing the ball better. They are picking up the pitch earlier. They are starting to zero in on the ball.

A .300 hitter is not going to go 3-10 every 10 atbats. You will see streaks of 6-10 but will also see streaks of 0-10. When you use a large sum you will see an overall regression to the mean. How the mean is reached is another story in its self.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 04:20 PM
But going 0 for 50 does NOT make you likely to go .333 over your next 450 at bats.without a doubt. I guy that has an hot streak to start the season is more likely likely to finish above the mean than one that doesn't.

I remember reading an article recently where a batter having a hot start in April is much better predictor of a "good" season than a pitcher having a good April. Not sure what to make of other than that pitching performance is much more random than hitting performance.

IslandRed
03-17-2008, 04:24 PM
There are a number of Reds that the GABP park effect applies to ... but nobody like Hatty.

Which is odd when you think about it. The GABP park effect is all about home runs; strip out the balls flying over the fence and you have a fairly normal yard. There shouldn't be a "GABP boost" for a line-drive ball-in-play hitter like Hatteberg.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 04:44 PM
without a doubt. I guy that has an hot streak to start the season is more likely likely to finish above the mean than one that doesn't.

I remember reading an article recently where a batter having a hot start in April is much better predictor of a "good" season than a pitcher having a good April. Not sure what to make of other than that pitching performance is much more random than hitting performance.

Certain metrics stabilize faster than others. Things like K/9 and BB/9 stabilize much more quickly than ERA. That is, having a really bad/good ERA after a month doesn't mean nearly as much as having a really good/bad BB or K rate in terms of how the rest of the year is likely to play out.

Wish I could remember the study that had the point at which a variety of metrics began to gain significant reliability. It might have been in The Book.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 04:46 PM
Which is odd when you think about it. The GABP park effect is all about home runs; strip out the balls flying over the fence and you have a fairly normal yard. There shouldn't be a "GABP boost" for a line-drive ball-in-play hitter like Hatteberg.

Why not? Adding 10 or 20 foot to Adam Dunn's basts doesn't make a big difference. But changing a 350 foot out in to a 370 HR helps a lot more. And big gaps in the OF help guys who put the ball out there more often and more quickly. It's precisely guys like Hatteberg (and EE, Phillips, and Votto) who it should help.

M2
03-17-2008, 04:59 PM
But if one is willing to invest in a slump by Votto than must not one also be willing to invest in the hot streaks of guys like Patterson/Green/Bako/Castro and ride the crest of those guys?

You're overly fixated on this whole hot/cold paradigm. The kid is going poorly at the moment. It's really ready/not ready. At the moment what we're seeing is that he's not ready for the season to start. It's going to start whether he's ready or not and the Reds would do well not to force the issue. Hatteberg's in town if Votto needs a little extra time to get his bat together.

jojo
03-17-2008, 06:38 PM
Not true.

Independent trials and whatnot.

If you flip a coin 50 times and it comes up heads 50 times, it is still no more than 50:50 proposition that it will come up tails on the 51st flip.

Except it is true. Flip that coin another 50 times and the results for those 50 flips will be closer to a 25/25 split than a 50:0 split unless your coin is dishonest.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 06:47 PM
Except it is true. Flip that coin another 50 times and the results for those 50 flips will be closer to a 25/25
split than a 50:0 split unless your coin is dishonest.

No, it's not.

Whether or not you've gotten 5 tails in a row or 500, the chances of your next flip of being tails remains 50%. In other words, the length of your current cold streak has no bearing on your likelihood to break out of it in the next at bat.

As soon as we start talking groups of at bats, sure, but that's a function of the size of your "next at bat" group, not the length of the current cold streak. Joey Votto's streak has a 30% chance (or some such) of ending in his next at bat. But it has a 100% chance of ending in his next infinity at bats. The more at bats you give him to break out of it, the bigger the likelihood of him doing so in that time frame.

The reality of the situation is that a "streak"isn't really a thing at all -- just a collection of single observations with the same outcome. There are no inherent characteristics to it which suggest a likely duration. The streak is just as likely to end on the next at bat as it is 10 at bats from now, assuming it continues that long.

Of course, that's pure statistics. I'm pretty sure The Book showed that streaks in baseball do exist -- batters do run hot or cold. I think that was looking back 15 games and predicting the next relative to to career levels of performance -- or something like that. However, while the effect was statistically significant, it was practically meaningless (a few points of OPS). To the human brain, we are naturally inclined to account for random variation with an actual change in likelihood -- to chalk a cold streak up to him "pressing" or a hot streak to "being in the zone". And while those conditions might exist, short periods of time when a player's true ability changes, they are pretty darn weak -- such that they can barely be separated from what we'd expect to see given just random variation.

It doesn't mean guys don't get hot or cold, just that they are things that just happen and aren't (usually) the result of the player being any better or worse doing that period of time. They are just as likely to get a hit in their 21st at bat after an 0/10 streak as they are during a 10/10 streak.

M2
03-17-2008, 06:58 PM
Of course the fault with coin analogy is that it assumes that the batter isn't doing anything different. If he is, then his percentages aren't necessarily going to come up as a result of random event distribution. If Votto's having trouble picking up the ball or if he's got a hitch to work out or if his bat speed's a bit or if he's not triggering his swing correctly, then he needs to correct for those things before anyone can expect improvement.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 07:10 PM
Of course the fault with coin analogy is that it assumes that the batter isn't doing anything different. If he is, then his percentages aren't necessarily going to come up as a result of random event distribution. If Votto's having trouble picking up the ball or if he's got a hitch to work out or if his bat speed's a bit or if he's not triggering his swing correctly, then he needs to correct for those things before anyone can expect improvement.

This is interesting though. One could make the argument that a player's "true ability" changes every at bat, or even every single pitch. He changes something a little, gets something in his eye, gets a cramp -- or he faces a different pitcher, etc. It's really impossible to assess all the factors. It's the Heidegger uncertainty principle in action.

What we have learned through a lot of study is that a guy's established level of performance is the best predictor of the next small sample of outcomes -- better than his most recent performance.

It's interesting, studies have even suggested that there's no such thing as different player's have true platoon split abilities. As player's accrue more at bats, their platoon split tends to regress to some fixed difference, such that observed variance in different players or between seasons can be explained by random chance.

Over a career of a few thousand plate appearances, any given player might have what looks like an extreme platoon split. But we can't really attribute that extreme split to a specific ability (or inability of that player) as it falls within a reasonably normal distribution of player careers given random variation around a common average difference.

M2
03-17-2008, 07:30 PM
RMR, that's all well and good. Expect what we've got at the moment is that Votto is fairly obviously out of synch. I don't care about long-term performance predictors in this situation, I want him to stop being out of synch. And if it persists, then I want him getting reps in AAA until he's in synch.

My personal hope is he busts out over the next 10 days and turns this into a non-issue, but if he doesn't then platitudes aren't going to cut it.

jojo
03-17-2008, 07:31 PM
No, it's not.

Yes it is Rick.


Whether or not you've gotten 5 tails in a row or 500, the chances of your next flip of being tails remains 50%.

Which is exactly why it's true. The true mean should be 50:50. Provided an honest coin, a 50:0 distribution will regress back to a 50:50 one given enough flips so the next fifty flips would be expected to be closer to 25:25 than 50:0.

The point is that absent a physical reason for it not too, a player's performance will regress to his true mean given enough opportunities.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 08:02 PM
Yes it is Rick.

Which is exactly why it's true. The true mean should be 50:50. Provided an honest coin, a 50:0 distribution will regress back to a 50:50 one given enough flips so the next fifty flips would be expected to be closer to 25:25 than 50:0.

The point is that absent a physical reason for it not too, a player's performance will regress to his true mean given enough opportunities.

Regress, yes -- but not likely within the additional period of "time" you've arbitrarily allotted for it. The regression happens simply by playing out the true mean over such a number of observations as to make the outlier sample insignificant. A sample of any set size, regardless of any pre-condition, is mostly likely to have the true mean as it's observed mean.

The outcome of those 50 at bats has absolutely no influence whatsoever on the likely mean of the subsequent finite sample of at bats. The overall observed mean regresses because as you approach infinity, that 0 for 50 becomes less and less influential on the observed group -- not because the subsequent at bats offset that 0 for 50 run by showing an observed mean higher than the true mean.

If a guy goes 0 for 50 and is still a true .300 hitter, the most likely outcome of his next 450 at bats is still .300 -- not .333 (the average that would be required to make the combined 500 at bats .300). It just doesn't work that way. The most likely outcome of that 500 at bat sample, given a known 0 for 50 streak, is .270. The most likely mean of the unknown 450 does not change simply because you know the mean of the 50. That's what statistical independence is.

It's counter-intuitive, I know, but there is no law which says you're going to experience a balancing effect within any given finite number of at bats. As the sample of additional observations grows, the likelihood increases that your observed mean approaches .300. But given just an extra 450 at bats, it's not very likely that you'll get back to .300 for the 500 at bat season.

jojo
03-17-2008, 08:22 PM
If a guy goes 0 for 50 and is still a true .300 hitter, the most likely outcome of his next 450 at bats is still .300

Which is exactly what I'm suggesting. You're over thinking this.


-- not .333 (the average that would be required to make the combined 500 at bats .300). It just doesn't work that way.

I'm not arguing that it does.

sonny
03-17-2008, 10:38 PM
I just hope he starts hitting better when it counts. All this talk of coins makes me want to get a soda.

IslandRed
03-17-2008, 11:39 PM
Why not? Adding 10 or 20 foot to Adam Dunn's basts doesn't make a big difference. But changing a 350 foot out in to a 370 HR helps a lot more. And big gaps in the OF help guys who put the ball out there more often and more quickly. It's precisely guys like Hatteberg (and EE, Phillips, and Votto) who it should help.

While the ball carries well at GABP, it isn't Coors Field. The outfield dimensions are average-to-short. The gaps aren't big relative to other NL parks. That's why the GABP park factors show a big number for HR and pretty normal numbers for everything else. It is not a BABIP-enhancing park and there's no obvious reason why Hatteberg should be seeing an inordinate boost in his home BABIP.

membengal
03-18-2008, 02:15 PM
The three run jack with two out and two on by Votto to dead CF today off of lefty Maholm helps his case a bit.

Steve4192
03-18-2008, 02:18 PM
The three run jack with two out and two on by Votto to dead CF today off of lefty Maholm helps his case a bit.

Yep.

Hopefully his bat comes around over the next couple of weeks and renders this conversation moot.

Joseph
03-18-2008, 02:25 PM
Marty said in the pregame today he spoke with Dusty about Votto and while he had to read between the lines, he said he came away with the impression Votto is your OD starter at 1B.

Matt700wlw
03-18-2008, 02:28 PM
Marty said in the pregame today he spoke with Dusty about Votto and while he had to read between the lines, he said he came away with the impression Votto is your OD starter at 1B.

As well he should be. He'll hit. Not to worry.

klw
06-08-2012, 08:57 PM
Oh, he'll be a Red soon and the starting first sacker, for sure. But he is hitting .139 this spring. Will the Reds start him in the lineup? On the bench? Or in Louisville, Ky?


I'll take "Questions we don't need to Ask anymore" for 100 Alex.

Kc61
06-08-2012, 10:49 PM
I'll take "Questions we don't need to Ask anymore" for 100 Alex.

The thread is from 2008.

Soon somebody will bump the "Will Lincoln Run for President" thread from the 1860 Redszone archive. LOL.

Tom Servo
06-08-2012, 10:51 PM
He's no Scott Hatteberg.

redsfandan
06-08-2012, 10:54 PM
He's already won one mvp and is having an even better season this year. I don't think anyone would've predicted he'd be THIS good.

reds44
06-08-2012, 11:00 PM
Some of these names early in the thread. Freel, Hopper, Castro, carrying a 3rd catcher, Hairston, I mean yeesh.

Blitz Dorsey
06-08-2012, 11:18 PM
Haha. There is no way this thread just got bumped. Oh yes it did!

Blitz Dorsey
06-08-2012, 11:19 PM
The thread is from 2008.

Soon somebody will bump the "Will Lincoln Run for President" thread from the 1860 Redszone archive. LOL.

"Should Abe give up the habit of going to live theater?" for the Daily Double, Alex.

WVRedsFan
06-08-2012, 11:24 PM
He's already won one mvp and is having an even better season this year. I don't think anyone would've predicted he'd be THIS good.
Well, I did. All the talk of trading him really got me back in the old days. I saw an intensity in him you rarely see in a Reds player. For the record, I see the same intensity in Todd Frazier, though not as much talent.

Matt700wlw
06-08-2012, 11:28 PM
He's still getting better. That's a scary thought, in the greatest way possible.

VR
06-09-2012, 12:13 AM
I feel really, really glad that I did not post in this thread 4 years ago. A good laugh indeed though, wowsers.

dabvu2498
06-09-2012, 03:43 AM
Some of these names early in the thread. Freel, Hopper, Castro, carrying a 3rd catcher, Hairston, I mean yeesh.

Hairston was pretty dang good in 2008. And I'd love to have what he's done for the Dodgers so far in 2012 coming off the bench in Cincy.

But yes, this thread in retrospect is a hoot.

RedLegsToday
06-09-2012, 06:31 AM
He's no Scott Hatteberg.

So true.

Raisor
06-09-2012, 07:25 AM
I guess he still is a "slow starter" he only had a 939 OPS in April :(

Crumbley
06-09-2012, 08:27 AM
2008: Fighting threat of third catcher for roster spot
2010: MVP
2012: Some kind of line drive Cthulhu

jojo
06-09-2012, 08:44 AM
I guess he still is a "slow starter" he only had a 939 OPS in April :(

He's posting this .000/.000/.000; OPS=.000, wOBA=0, with 2 Ks in his last two at bats!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! How many options does he have left? ;)

RANDY IN INDY
06-09-2012, 09:28 AM
Fun read 4 years later.

RedsManRick
06-09-2012, 11:04 AM
I forgot just how effective Hatteberg was. He hit .291/.384/.440 during his time in red. Sure would love that kind of production from somewhere on than 1B.

Vottomatic
06-09-2012, 12:03 PM
Votto sucks.

:laugh: