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View Full Version : Jeremy Affeldt to the bullpen per Dusty



OnBaseMachine
03-17-2008, 02:58 PM
Dusty just said on FSN Ohio that Affeldt is moving back to the bullpen, eliminating him from the rotation competition.

Good move.

Team Clark
03-17-2008, 03:02 PM
Dusty just said on FSN Ohio that Affeldt is moving back to the bullpen, eliminating him from the rotation competition.

Good move.

Foregone conclusion. Makes me feel better.

Blitz Dorsey
03-17-2008, 03:38 PM
Nice!

1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Cueto (funny that people just insert Belisle automatically as the No. 3; why ignore the facts? he could be good, but he's not even close to as good as Cueto)
4. Volquez
5. Belisle
Swing starter/long reliever: Fogg

Matt700wlw
03-17-2008, 03:40 PM
A step in the right direction...based on springs, Fogg should be your 5 with Belisle where he belongs...in the bullpen.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 03:42 PM
Dusty just said on FSN Ohio that Affeldt is moving back to the bullpen, eliminating him from the rotation competition.

Good move.was there ever any doubt. Hoping that he would morph into a starter was a long shot at best. I am not sold on the fact that he is some bullpen stud. His track record screams "command issues".

Benihana
03-17-2008, 03:42 PM
A nice move- makes this a great signing.

Will be interesting to see who wins the Fogg/Belisle battle.

KronoRed
03-17-2008, 03:49 PM
No Stanton please?

M2
03-17-2008, 03:52 PM
No Stanton please?

I don't want to pee on anyone's cornflakes, but it's entirely possible Stanton could be a better pitcher this season than Affeldt, and I say that fully realizing Stanton could be in for another poor season.

TRF
03-17-2008, 03:52 PM
A step in the right direction...based on springs, Fogg should be your 5 with Belisle where he belongs...in the bullpen.

yawn.

Belisle's upside is greater than Fogg's, any day of the week. Fogg Gives up HR's at a very high rate for a supposed GB pitcher, can't K my grandmother, hasn't K'd over 100 since 2002. If Matt Belisle starts 30 games this year, he'll K 150+. That doesn't make him an Ace, but it makes him 10 times better than the fools gold Fogg is showing us right now. I'm fairly certain he didn't suddenly learn to pitch over the offseason.

KronoRed
03-17-2008, 03:54 PM
I don't want to pee on anyone's cornflakes, but it's entirely possible Stanton could be a better pitcher this season than Affeldt, and I say that fully realizing Stanton could be in for another poor season.

So glad I don't eat cornflakes

bucksfan2
03-17-2008, 03:58 PM
yawn.

Belisle's upside is greater than Fogg's, any day of the week. Fogg Gives up HR's at a very high rate for a supposed GB pitcher, can't K my grandmother, hasn't K'd over 100 since 2002. If Matt Belisle starts 30 games this year, he'll K 150+. That doesn't make him an Ace, but it makes him 10 times better than the fools gold Fogg is showing us right now. I'm fairly certain he didn't suddenly learn to pitch over the offseason.

I am not real high on Belisle as a starter but I think if he doesn't make the starting rotation heading north that he will be in the pen for a long time. If Homer goes to AAA I forsee him cracking the starting rotation before Belisle does.

BRM
03-17-2008, 03:59 PM
So glad I don't eat cornflakes

Yeah, but you'll still have to watch Stanton and Affeldt pitch this season. Probably Majewski for awhile too.

flyer85
03-17-2008, 04:02 PM
I don't want to pee on anyone's cornflakes, but it's entirely possible Stanton could be a better pitcher this season than Affeldt, and I say that fully realizing Stanton could be in for another poor season.there is not much to give me warm fuzzies about any of the Reds three bullpen lefties. Affelfdt still has serious command issues, Stanton is ... well Stanton, and Bray can't stay healthy and has a limited track record. I have serious reservations about this bullpen.

BRM
03-17-2008, 04:59 PM
there is not much to give me warm fuzzies about any of the Reds three bullpen lefties. Affelfdt still has serious command issues, Stanton is ... well Stanton, and Bray can't stay healthy and has a limited track record. I have serious reservations about this bullpen.

You may very well see Mercker as the 3rd lefty instead of Bray. Stanton, Affeldt, and Mercker. Solid.

cincyinco
03-17-2008, 05:29 PM
Bray comes up when Stanton inevitably bombs?

red-in-la
03-17-2008, 08:44 PM
A nice move- makes this a great signing.

Will be interesting to see who wins the Fogg/Belisle battle.

I am totally disappointed in Belisle.....I thought he was ready to take his career into the Harang region. He appears to have the stuff, but the brain of Brett Tomko.

If Belisle has an option left, I can see him in AAA come March 31. If not, he could be trade bait. Right now I see Fogg being ahead of him simply because I cannot see the Reds putting 3 pitchers in the rotation that are so inexperienced......and Volquez and Cueto seem like locks at this point.

I think Fogg will end up at the number 5 slot so he can be skipped now and then.

Benihana
03-17-2008, 09:20 PM
I would still be willing to try Belisle in the rotation despite his putrid ST. However, I'd give him April and April only to prove his worth. If he doesn't turn it around, I send him to the 'pen and give Fogg a try.

VR
03-17-2008, 09:41 PM
I am totally disappointed in Belisle.....I thought he was ready to take his career into the Harang region.



Aaron was 2-3 w/ a 6.97 earnie last Spring. Looks like he's right there.

Belisle has big league stuff...I'm not ready to send him out until May.

RedsManRick
03-17-2008, 09:42 PM
I am not real high on Belisle as a starter but I think if he doesn't make the starting rotation heading north that he will be in the pen for a long time. If Homer goes to AAA I forsee him cracking the starting rotation before Belisle does.

I can agree with this. My bottom line is that I think Belisle is one of the 5 best starters the Reds have for 2008. He might excel in the bullpen, but I'd rather him in the rotation than Fogg, Affeldt, Bailey, or Maloney. And if he has a great year -- or first half, he could make some excellent trade bait to address some other need.

Cedric
03-18-2008, 12:16 AM
This is turning out almost perfect. The only thing better would be if Bailey had progressed. But honestly it was always unlikely that Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez made the starting five.

Give me Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, and Fogg and that is the best rotation this team has had in years.

Cedric
03-18-2008, 12:18 AM
I am totally disappointed in Belisle.....I thought he was ready to take his career into the Harang region. He appears to have the stuff, but the brain of Brett Tomko.

If Belisle has an option left, I can see him in AAA come March 31. If not, he could be trade bait. Right now I see Fogg being ahead of him simply because I cannot see the Reds putting 3 pitchers in the rotation that are so inexperienced......and Volquez and Cueto seem like locks at this point.

I think Fogg will end up at the number 5 slot so he can be skipped now and then.

I don't really like his stuff for more than one or two innings. He has no movement on his fastball and can't locate enough to get hitters out easily once, much less twice through the order. If you want to win now and give the young players a winning club you need to have a 5th starter that is rarely going to implode. I might be wrong but I would think Fogg would at least keep this team in most of his games. Belisle had many games where he just gave us no chance and tore up the bullpen early.

puca
03-18-2008, 12:55 AM
You do realize that Fogg is on the wrong side of 30, has slightly worse career numbers than Belisle while pitching in friendlier environments and with better defense behind him. And to top it off he has actually averaged fewer IP/start than Belisle.

One decent spring training doesn't change the fact that Josh Fogg is an awful pitcher. He will be lucky to keep his ERA south of 5.50 pitching half his games in the GAB.

Cedric
03-18-2008, 03:00 AM
You do realize that Fogg is on the wrong side of 30, has slightly worse career numbers than Belisle while pitching in friendlier environments and with better defense behind him. And to top it off he has actually averaged fewer IP/start than Belisle.

One decent spring training doesn't change the fact that Josh Fogg is an awful pitcher. He will be lucky to keep his ERA south of 5.50 pitching half his games in the GAB.

He's a bad pitcher. Belisle is a bad pitcher. By the way, Matt Belisle posted a 6.80 ERA from May 31st until the end of the season. I'm not exactly thrilled at the prospect of either pitcher starting. I see Fogg as at least keeping us in games and that's the best you can ask from a 5th starter.

Belisle has slightly better career numbers as a starter? As a starter Fogg has a slight advantage in the numbers. His BAAA is .286 and Belisle is at a .296 clip. Whip is both 1.46 for both. Josh Fogg has also thrown over 150 innings in 6 seasons and has posted ERA clips of 4.35, 4.64, 4.94, and 5.05 in four of those years. I believe the true Matt Belisle is the pitcher we saw from June until October. He was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the National League during that stretch. Matt Belisle as a starter has a career

I hate arguing for Josh Fogg, I really do. I just see him as a better option as a 5th starter. I honestly can't stand to watch either pitcher because they both have obvious flaws. Fogg nibbles and drives you insane because he doesn't have an out pitch. Belisle can't locate and allows more 0-2 hits than any pitcher I can remember. I'd rather have paid for Lohse and had an obvious choice instead of these two guys.

puca
03-18-2008, 09:04 AM
He's a bad pitcher. Belisle is a bad pitcher. By the way, Matt Belisle posted a 6.80 ERA from May 31st until the end of the season. I'm not exactly thrilled at the prospect of either pitcher starting. I see Fogg as at least keeping us in games and that's the best you can ask from a 5th starter.

Belisle has slightly better career numbers as a starter? As a starter Fogg has a slight advantage in the numbers. His BAAA is .286 and Belisle is at a .296 clip. Whip is both 1.46 for both. Josh Fogg has also thrown over 150 innings in 6 seasons and has posted ERA clips of 4.35, 4.64, 4.94, and 5.05 in four of those years. I believe the true Matt Belisle is the pitcher we saw from June until October. He was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the National League during that stretch. Matt Belisle as a starter has a career

I hate arguing for Josh Fogg, I really do. I just see him as a better option as a 5th starter. I honestly can't stand to watch either pitcher because they both have obvious flaws. Fogg nibbles and drives you insane because he doesn't have an out pitch. Belisle can't locate and allows more 0-2 hits than any pitcher I can remember. I'd rather have paid for Lohse and had an obvious choice instead of these two guys.

I find it convenient that you left out Fogg's 2006 campaign, where he was arguably the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

Fogg's career ERA is 4.90. His career WHIP is 1.46. He has averaged less than 5 2/3 IP per start over his career. He is over 30 and is extreemly unlikey to improve on any of his numbers especially considering he is moving to a better hitters park with a worse defense behind him. Fogg is awful and is an almost certainty to remain awful.

I am not one of those that think Matt Belisle will become Aaron Harang or even a league average pitcher, he is unlikely to be worse than Josh Fogg. I don't have time to look up the numbers, but your May 31+ numbers on Belisle look way off base to me.

If you really want to cherry pick numbers, check out the difference between Belisle pitching to David Ross versus Javier Valentine.

redsrule2500
03-18-2008, 10:07 AM
I love love love this starting pitching rotation!! When was the last time you could say that as a Reds fan????? :)

coachw513
03-18-2008, 10:08 AM
If Cueto and Volquez can win rotation jobs in the spring, can't Fogg as well???...I don't have a dog in that fight, but if Fogg pitches extremely well today and Belisle doesn't pitch well on Thursday (I'm assuming he'll come back then) why wouldn't it be consistent with Dusty's "Competition is a good thing" mantra??

I got the impression from Thom and Jeff yesterday that with Dusty opening the door to keeping 3 leftys in the pen including Affeldt, they felt Bray would be ready and the underlying impression that Coutlangus would be optioned (because of the ability to do so)...which leaves Stanton and Mercker, right??...ignoring the obvious "death by lethal injection or by electrocution debate" :D, is this what will it come down to??...that surprised me since I didn't think Bray was that far along...

If we assume the "loser" of the 5th rotation spot becomes the long man in the bullpen (would Fogg be in trouble if Belisle wins the job since Affeldt is down there now???), keeping 3 lefty's means keeping 3 right handers...so that means optioning 3 of the 4 of Majewski, Burton, McBeth and Coffey, right???

Thoughts??

TRF
03-18-2008, 10:56 AM
He's a bad pitcher. Belisle is a bad pitcher. By the way, Matt Belisle posted a 6.80 ERA from May 31st until the end of the season. I'm not exactly thrilled at the prospect of either pitcher starting. I see Fogg as at least keeping us in games and that's the best you can ask from a 5th starter.

Belisle has slightly better career numbers as a starter? As a starter Fogg has a slight advantage in the numbers. His BAAA is .286 and Belisle is at a .296 clip. Whip is both 1.46 for both. Josh Fogg has also thrown over 150 innings in 6 seasons and has posted ERA clips of 4.35, 4.64, 4.94, and 5.05 in four of those years. I believe the true Matt Belisle is the pitcher we saw from June until October. He was arguably the worst starting pitcher in the National League during that stretch. Matt Belisle as a starter has a career

I hate arguing for Josh Fogg, I really do. I just see him as a better option as a 5th starter. I honestly can't stand to watch either pitcher because they both have obvious flaws. Fogg nibbles and drives you insane because he doesn't have an out pitch. Belisle can't locate and allows more 0-2 hits than any pitcher I can remember. I'd rather have paid for Lohse and had an obvious choice instead of these two guys.

He was also starting for the first time on a regular basis, and era aside his second half was pretty decent. Yes he was too hittable, but he K'd nearly 7 batters per 9 inning (6.9 K/9) that was up over 1 k per 9 over the first half. And he had some very good outings down the stretch, including 2 9 strikeout efforts, one of those against the Brewers.

But Josh Fogg is just a bad pitcher, period. And this ST of his is a mirage.

puca
03-18-2008, 12:35 PM
If Cueto and Volquez can win rotation jobs in the spring, can't Fogg as well???...I don't have a dog in that fight, but if Fogg pitches extremely well today and Belisle doesn't pitch well on Thursday (I'm assuming he'll come back then) why wouldn't it be consistent with Dusty's "Competition is a good thing" mantra??

I got the impression from Thom and Jeff yesterday that with Dusty opening the door to keeping 3 leftys in the pen including Affeldt, they felt Bray would be ready and the underlying impression that Coutlangus would be optioned (because of the ability to do so)...which leaves Stanton and Mercker, right??...ignoring the obvious "death by lethal injection or by electrocution debate" :D, is this what will it come down to??...that surprised me since I didn't think Bray was that far along...

If we assume the "loser" of the 5th rotation spot becomes the long man in the bullpen (would Fogg be in trouble if Belisle wins the job since Affeldt is down there now???), keeping 3 lefty's means keeping 3 right handers...so that means optioning 3 of the 4 of Majewski, Burton, McBeth and Coffey, right???

Thoughts??

Letting pitchers with a proven track record of awfulness win jobs in spring is a recent Reds tradition. It has never worked out in the past, there is no reason to believe it would work out this time.

I had no problem bringing Fogg in as an emergency starter in case the young starters flopped, but he was and should still be plan B: no matter how well he has pitched in ST.

BRM
03-18-2008, 12:43 PM
So is everyone pretty well convinced that Cueto and Volquez will both start the year in the rotation?

RedsManRick
03-18-2008, 01:03 PM
So is everyone pretty well convinced that Cueto and Volquez will both start the year in the rotation?

Well, it seems the list of competitors is down to four, so it's a lock that at least one of them will. I think Cueto is the lock and then it's pretty much a complete toss up between Volquez, Fogg, and Belisle. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to the crunch of spots, that barring a thinning out of the bullpen, Volquez starts the year at the front the AAA rotation and we open with a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Fogg
Cueto
Belisle

SteelSD
03-18-2008, 01:15 PM
Well, it seems the list of competitors is down to four, so it's a lock that at least one of them will. I think Cueto is the lock and then it's pretty much a complete toss up between Volquez, Fogg, and Belisle. If I had to guess, I'd say that due to the crunch of spots, that barring a thinning out of the bullpen, Volquez starts the year at the front the AAA rotation and we open with a rotation of:

Harang
Arroyo
Fogg
Cueto
Belisle

I'd suggest that Cueto and Volquez will be flipped, with Cueto starting at AAA. I feel it's doubtful that Krivsky would deal Hamilton for Volquez, then watch Volquez pitch well in Spring Training only to ship him to AAA. Not saying that's right, just that's how I see it playing out.

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 01:21 PM
Right now I think Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez are both near locks for the rotation. Dusty Baker has all but stated this. With the comments he has made, I would be shocked if both Cueto and Volquez are not in the Opening Day rotation. My starting five would be: Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Belisle.

Screwball
03-18-2008, 01:24 PM
Right now I think Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez are both near locks for the rotation. Dusty Baker has all but stated this. With the comments he has made, I would be shocked if both Cueto and Volquez are not in the Opening Day rotation. My starting five would be: Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Belisle.

That's how I see the situation as well. Although it seems like Fogg might have the inside track to the 5th spot.

BRM
03-18-2008, 01:33 PM
Baker has said lots of things about lots of players to this point. How much should be taken as gospel and how much is just him trying to motivate? I'd like to believe that Cueto and Volquez will both be in the rotation to start the year but I'm not holding my breath.

TRF
03-18-2008, 01:52 PM
Nothing Josh Fogg has done in his entire career should mean he wins a job in ST. If the plan was for Belisle to be the Number 3 starter before ST started, and I believe it was, then All this ST was for getting his arm in shape to start the season and shake off some rust.

I'd release Fogg tomorrow and hope the Astros pick him up.

KronoRed
03-18-2008, 03:52 PM
I'd release Fogg tomorrow and hope the Astros pick him up.

They gave him a million dollars, they won't cut him now.

pedro
03-18-2008, 04:03 PM
They gave him a million dollars, they won't cut him now.

actually, he has to make to team to get a guaranteed contract. if not the Reds are only out 100,000.

coachw513
03-18-2008, 04:18 PM
actually, he has to make to team to get a guaranteed contract. if not the Reds are only out 100,000.

Heck, the way WK throws around Castellini's $$ on Rule V guys, 100 large shouldn't be a problem...

Was Fogg "statistically bad" or "just plain bad" today??

Wouldn't you love to see Belisle just take the darn ball Thursday and lay serious claim to his rotation spot???...I got the sense JB was discriminantly speaking about Belisle when he kept lusting over Cueto's ability to get out of trouble and not melting down during the 1st inning yesterday...

BRM
03-18-2008, 05:37 PM
From Fay, after today's game.


Josh Fogg had a rough start. He allowed six runs -- three earned -- in five hits in three innings.

"He was missing his spots," Dusty Baker said. "And we had a couple of defensive miscues. He needs good defense behind. Also, in his defense, he was pitching on three days' rest."

Fogg is a fifth-starter type. He's going to have days like that.

If I was going to be good every start, I dont think Id be in the situation Im in right now, Fogg said. Id have a guaranteed job somewhere. Everybody gets beat up every once and a while. Its part of the game.

CaiGuy
03-18-2008, 06:01 PM
I really liked and supported the Fogg signing at first, but now I wonder why! It would be a crying shame, IMO, if he starts over any of Belisle, Cueto, or Volquez. It would be shame if he makes the bullpen over Burton, Salmon, McBeth, or even Coffey. These guys have way more talent and upside.

Give me a rotation (in whatever order) of Harang, Arroyo, Belisle, Volqez, and Cueto.

P.S. a rotation without Affeldt either