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Team Clark
03-18-2008, 01:37 PM
Just had a thought. (Yes I know, rare occurence)

What is the difference between "rushed" and "not ready"? Is there a difference? If Bailey at his current age and development is right where he is supposed to be then has he been rushed or is he simply not ready?

Is he meeting expectations? Who sets the expectations? Do the expectations dictate whether he was rushed or not? Just curious about thoughts on this.

Personally, I think he is right where he is supposed to be for the number of innings he has thrown, the instruction he has received, his maturity level and his effort. This kid is on the cusp of becoming a legit starter. It's that "cusp" that can be so hard to grasp for so many "phenoms".

RFS62
03-18-2008, 01:47 PM
The only time I thought he was rushed was last year when we brought him up.

Up until then, we had exhibited restraint and patience with Homer, IMO.

I think he's doing very well for his age. I don't think he's ready, and there is no blame to assign over that, it's just the way it is in the development of a young pitcher.

princeton
03-18-2008, 01:57 PM
he was rushed, because he obviously wasn't ready.

I'm happy to wait. There's so much negative buzz that his potential is surely worth much more to us than what we'd receive from another team.

Krivsky will surrender talent to fill need, however.

RedsManRick
03-18-2008, 02:02 PM
I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

Team Clark
03-18-2008, 02:08 PM
I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

That's a pretty darn good response right there! :thumbup:

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 02:09 PM
Good post, RFS. I agree with that.

Homer spent the whole season (103.2 innings) in Low-A Dayton in 2005 using Dan O'Brien's piggyback rotation. In 2006 he began the season in High-A Sarasota and spent 70.2 very good innings there before earning a mid-season promotion to Double-A Chattanooga. He spent 68 dominant innings there (1.59 ERA, 6.62 H/9, 10.19 K/9) and the Reds rightfully resisted the push from fans to call him up in the last few weeks of the 2006 season. 2007 came around and he started at AAA Louisville and pitched 58.1 innings with a 2.31 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 3.72 BB/9.

The ERA was nice but the K/9 was down from the year before and his walk rate was up. Ideally you would have liked for him to remain in Louisville and got that strikeout rate up around his career average and the walk rate down under 3.2. He's still only 21 so's he got plenty of time to workout his problems in Louisville. The acquisition of Edinson Volquez and emergence of Johnny Cueto could be the best thing to happen to Homer Bailey.

RANDY IN INDY
03-18-2008, 02:36 PM
I think there is an assumption that players are most likely to develop to their full potential when they are constantly challenged, but not overwhelmed. Rushing a guy is placing him in a situation where he is likely to fail from a performance standpoint due to being developmentally behind the league.

Being "ready" is just a question of whether the guy can move up without being harmed developmentally.

In the case of Bailey, I think he was rushed to the majors in so far as he was asked to perform at a level for which he was not developmentally prepared. That said, in terms of his age, his talent, etc., I think Bailey is fine. A young guy with a lot of talent should be able to progress at a level per year. It's when they slow behind that pace that I worry. 2007 should have been Bailey's "Graduate from AA and get your feet wet in AAA" year. I think he accomplished that. 2008 is his "master AAA and show you're ready for the majors" year.

Great post!:beerme:

coachw513
03-18-2008, 03:12 PM
The acquisition of Edinson Volquez and emergence of Johnny Cueto could be the best thing to happen to Homer Bailey.

It was weird/amazing/dumfounding that yesterday Thom and Jeff did not speak the name Homer Bailey once during the telecast (it was shown in relation to the other rotation candidates on a graphic, but that was it, IIRC)...and that was despite the countless discussions to both the young pitching and the overall excitement of the Reds due to the influx of young overall talent in the system...

It both spoke of the here-today, gone-tomorrow mentality of media and our own fan-dom but also the reality that now Homer Bailey can go about becoming a legitimate major league pitcher without the glare and expectation of a desperate franchise looming overhead...

M2
03-18-2008, 03:16 PM
he was rushed, because he obviously wasn't ready.

What princeton said.

My take is that we know that not many pitchers thrive as major league starters prior to age 24. You get a few precocious ones here and there. There are those who show up a little early (age 23), but I think an organization needs to build its development plan backward from an age 24 debut.

Most of the time when kids get rushed all it accomplishes, in the long run, is that the organization winds up getting frustrated when the kids stalls.

I'm open to the notion of pushing a kid harder when he's ridiculously dominant, a big hoss who's matured early or if he's got a sick arsenal (e.g. Johnny Cueto). Yet too often what we see is not-ready kids being rushed because they've pitched well.

Strikes Out Looking
03-18-2008, 03:28 PM
Why would you expect someone who aced his first year of med school to be ready to practice medicine at the top of his profession? The same is true of Homer.

A little more minor league seasoning won't hurt him--and hopefully, it will be explained to him that it isn't a demotion or a feeling that the team doesn't believe in his talent.

Always Red
03-18-2008, 03:32 PM
If Homer was rushed last year, then Johnny Cueto is being rushed this year.

Both have had eerily similar records against minor leaguers, with Cueto certainly showing better control. If Johnny struggles like Homer did last year, I don't hesitate to get him back down to AAA.

Of course, if Cueto pitches like he has been in ST, then he wouldn't have been "rushed", but you can only really know that after the fact. If Homer had been great last year when he was brought up, he wouldn't have been "rushed."

The Reds aren't going to win anything this year, unless they get lucky. They need to have all guns blazing for 2009, and that includes Homer, Cueto and Volquez, to go along with Harang and Arroyo. Unless they swap one of the kids, or Arroyo, for a LH SP.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-18-2008, 03:49 PM
He was rushed and still is not ready.

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 04:27 PM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

MikeS21
03-18-2008, 04:33 PM
What I think happened was that the major league team was struggling and needed a PR boost beyond the feel good story of Josh Hamilton to keep fan interest going, Homer Bailey seemed to be the obvious answer. Bailey should have been at AA at the beginning of 2007 and allowed to push his way to AAA. Instead, he was put in a no-win situation that he was unprepared for.

The question now becomes how much his experience last year messed with his head. We're hearing rumors from various sources that he doesn't listen very well to coaching.

I agree that Homer Bailey is still young. He needs at least 1-2 more years in the minors. But the sticking point is going to be the learning process he goes through while in the minors. Will he actually learn and improve and refine? Or will he whine and bellyache that he has learned all there is to learn?

If he takes advantage of the learning, he'll make a nice #3 starter behind Cueto and Volquez in a couple years. If he decides to blow off the coaching, then I would tell him not to let the door hit him on the way out.

Kc61
03-18-2008, 04:35 PM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

We'll see, but both Cueto and Bailey are extremely young to succeed in the major leagues. If the Reds had a good starting staff without them, I'm sure both of these guys would be at AAA this year.

Because the Reds have a lack of starters, Cueto probably will get a shot. My hope is that they take it easy with him. Make Cueto the "fifth" starter, have him skip starts occasionally, limit his pitch count. Then maybe this can work.

As for Homer, he is only 21 still, he could spend another 3 seasons at AAA and still be on target age-wise. I'm not upset the Reds took a chance with him last year in an otherwise dismal season, but now there should be no rush to bring him to the majors. Let him learn in due course, have a good year at AAA, and come up when ready.

Aronchis
03-18-2008, 04:37 PM
Homer's leg driven mechanics mean he needs to be full strength to be at his most effective because he will mostly rely on his fastball.

It explains why he takes awhile to "power up" and why he has started slow in spring training(4 years running) and why he struggled last year with a groin injury. His rehab was real slow to if you noticed, but when he came back, he was throwing good.

As Homer matures and developes his arsenal fuller, he will have better springs as he uses those pitches more while he builds up strength. I tell you this, if Homer gets like a bad hammy pull in July and is forced to sit out 4 weeks, you might as well right him off being a contributer for the rest of the season lol.

Pretty simple pitcher 101. Where I disagree with OBM is whether Cueto has the stamina to be a full season, 6I or better pitcher. I guess time will tell that tale.

Always Red
03-18-2008, 04:39 PM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

I disagree; I think the situation is much the same; both are young guys who blew away minor league hitters. Certainly, I would agree that Homer was rushed, in retrospect.

I hope Johnny Cueto turns out to be the next great thing, I really do. I understand your point about his command, and I agree that he's earned a spot in the rotation. But he's awfully young.

If he struggles mightily (I hope not!) all can say that he was rushed, as he spent very little time above A ball. But, if he makes it, then he wasn't rushed.

My point is that you can't really say until after the fact, and it's dangerous work to try to predict if young pitchers have what it takes or not.

OnBaseMachine
03-18-2008, 04:51 PM
I would agree that Cueto has been somewhat rushed. He spent plenty of time in Single-A. He only spent 61 innings in Double-A but judging from his 1.62 BB/9 and 11.36 K/9 at Chattanooga, he really didn't have much left to prove there. He's only spent 22 innings in AAA (2.05 ERA, 0.82 BB/9, 8.59 K/9), so in all reality he could use a couple more months there. However, with his stuff and command, I think he is better equipped to pitch effectively in the major leagues right now than Homer Bailey. He can afford to be rushed a little due to command IMO. In a perfect world the Reds would have a solid 1-5 rotation and could allow Bailey and Cueto spend half a year in AAA for more seasoning but unfortunately that's not the case. The good thing is Bailey doesn't need to be rushed this year.

Sea Ray
03-18-2008, 05:15 PM
He was rushed and still is not ready.

I'm not so sure that he was rushed last year. At the time of his callup we needed a starter and he clearly was the best starter Louisville had, so we called him up. When it was apparent that he wasn't ready he was sent back down and I'm confident he'll start this year in AAA as well. I don't think the Reds sent him to the wolves last year. I think the experience probably showed him that he doesn't have it all figured out and he'd better continue to improve

Highlifeman21
03-18-2008, 05:27 PM
I'm not so sure that he was rushed last year. At the time of his callup we needed a starter and he clearly was the best starter Louisville had, so we called him up. When it was apparent that he wasn't ready he was sent back down and I'm confident he'll start this year in AAA as well. I don't think the Reds sent him to the wolves last year. I think the experience probably showed him that he doesn't have it all figured out and he'd better continue to improve

Didn't you get the memo? Homer Bailey was injured and that's why he was demoted. It had nothing to do with the fact that he got his brains beat in. It had nothing to do with the fact that he got his brains beat in b/c he couldn't find the strike zone, and definitely could throw his pitches where he wanted them when he wanted them. It had everything to do with him being injured.

Or at least that's the rumor.

Also, I'm hoping that Homer knows he doesn't have it all figured out yet, and learns from 2007. If not, then 2007 will look and smell an awful lot like 2008.

jojo
03-18-2008, 07:22 PM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

Yep. Command is a prerequisite.

redsfan4445
03-18-2008, 09:54 PM
Also the difference between Cueto and Bailey.. Cueto got in his first major jam and then instead of throwing in the towel?, he retires 11 of the next 12 batters.. Were Bailey doesn't step it up and his pitch location is a mess.. and if its true about Bailey thinking he knows it all already. thats a huge problem. It was said on one of the sports talk shows ( i forget which one), that Jim Maloney was talking to him about pitch locations in different situations.. Homer shrugged it off as he already knew that.. i was like what?? if he already knew that, why isnt he doing it???? it sure doesnt show he knows by getting hit in spring training. Volquez and Cueto are WAYYYYY ahead of him now.. He should take a look at himself and adjust.. or he will be another #1 pick that never makes it.

Aronchis
03-18-2008, 10:20 PM
Also the difference between Cueto and Bailey.. Cueto got in his first major jam and then instead of throwing in the towel?, he retires 11 of the next 12 batters.. Were Bailey doesn't step it up and his pitch location is a mess.. and if its true about Bailey thinking he knows it all already. thats a huge problem. It was said on one of the sports talk shows ( i forget which one), that Jim Maloney was talking to him about pitch locations in different situations.. Homer shrugged it off as he already knew that.. i was like what?? if he already knew that, why isnt he doing it???? it sure doesnt show he knows by getting hit in spring training. Volquez and Cueto are WAYYYYY ahead of him now.. He should take a look at himself and adjust.. or he will be another #1 pick that never makes it.

You are spouting tiring PC lines around Bailey and the rest of the pitchers. It has been mentioned several times Homer has taken alot of advice this spring and he knows he is getting hit. It may not even be unexpected. Spring training is often the liars den. Don't fall in and get eaten by it.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 12:32 AM
Didn't you get the memo? Homer Bailey was injured and that's why he was demoted. It had nothing to do with the fact that he got his brains beat in. It had nothing to do with the fact that he got his brains beat in b/c he couldn't find the strike zone, and definitely could throw his pitches where he wanted them when he wanted them. It had everything to do with him being injured.

Or at least that's the rumor.



Yep. Homer made up the rumor about his groin. John Fay reported the rumor as fact. Then the Reds followed suit by placing Homer on the DL for the rumor. Homer then spent 8 weeks on the DL to make the rumor seem true.

You probably know better than Homer though, since it wasn't his groin.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 12:37 AM
Just had a thought. (Yes I know, rare occurence)

What is the difference between "rushed" and "not ready"? Is there a difference? If Bailey at his current age and development is right where he is supposed to be then has he been rushed or is he simply not ready?

The difference to me between rushed and not ready is that a player rushed can still have success while not being fully ready. A pitcher who is not ready, will not have any success now, but shows the tools to have success later. Homer had plenty of success while healthy last year (despite the idea that somehow Homer and the Reds were in cahoots to make up some fake groin injury to explain his falling apart). Was he fully ready? No, he wasn't. So I guess by my definition he was rushed, but he certainly doesn't fall into the group of 'not ready'.



Is he meeting expectations? Who sets the expectations? Do the expectations dictate whether he was rushed or not? Just curious about thoughts on this.
It depends who we are really talking about. In the end there are only two people who matter. Wayne Krivsky and Homer Bailey. I bet neither is all too happy with the spring so far, but I also bet that each knows its March 19th right now too and in the grand scheme of things, its not worth much.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 12:44 AM
Yep. Homer made up the rumor about his groin. John Fay reported the rumor as fact. Then the Reds followed suit by placing Homer on the DL for the rumor. Homer then spent 8 weeks on the DL to make the rumor seem true.

You probably know better than Homer though, since it wasn't his groin.

Show us a transaction placing him on the DL.

He was demoted b/c of the ASB. He wasn't put on the DL.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 12:57 AM
Show us a transaction placing him on the DL.

He was demoted b/c of the ASB. He wasn't put on the DL.

It was reported by John Fay that he was suffering from groin problems due to slipping on a wet mound warming up before the June 26th game. Incidentally he fell apart from that point forward. You can say it was a coincidence or made up cover up or whatever you want. I think the two things (injury and insane decline in performance) go hand in hand.

SteelSD
03-19-2008, 01:29 AM
Show us a transaction placing him on the DL.

He was demoted b/c of the ASB. He wasn't put on the DL.

Doug can't show a transaction that placed Bailey on the DL in the Show because it didn't happen. Doug also can't actually create a reliable timeline for the groin "injury" because it's nothing but an excuse.

Bailey himself, describing his poor outing on July 1st:

Bailey: "It's a small, mechanical thing."

The guy then puts together his best start of the season on July 7th and gets sent down.

http://www.kffl.com/player/10488/MLB

General manager Wayne Krivsky said the move would not have happened if not for the break, and added that Bailey wouldn't have pitched for eight or nine days if he hadn't been sent down.

On the 16th of July, here's what Wayne Krivsky had to say about Bailey after he threw 90 pitches in 3.1 Innings in the minors:

Krivsky: "Go pitch and get people out. The better you pitch, the better chance you have to get back."

Four days later, Bailey is placed on the Minor League DL with a "moderate" groin strain.

The timeline and comments from Reds' management and Bailey himself simply don't support a claim that Bailey was pitching injured prior to his demotion.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 01:33 AM
Doug can't show a transaction that placed Bailey on the DL in the Show because it didn't happen. Doug also can't actually create a reliable timeline for the groin "injury" because it's nothing but an excuse.

Bailey himself, describing his poor outing on July 1st:

Bailey: "It's a small, mechanical thing."

The guy then puts together his best start of the season on July 7th and gets sent down.

http://www.kffl.com/player/10488/MLB

General manager Wayne Krivsky said the move would not have happened if not for the break, and added that Bailey wouldn't have pitched for eight or nine days if he hadn't been sent down.

On the 16th of July, here's what Wayne Krivsky had to say about Bailey after he threw 90 pitches in 3.1 Innings in the minors:

Krivsky: "Go pitch and get people out. The better you pitch, the better chance you have to get back."

Four days later, Bailey is placed on the Minor League DL with a "moderate" groin strain.

The timeline and comments from Reds' management and Bailey himself simply don't support a claim that Bailey was pitching injured prior to his demotion.

And yet John Fay still reported the injury happening before the June 26th game against the Phillies. Bailey made mention of it, but not until a week or two later. Bailey saying it was a mechanical issue doesn't mean it wasn't because his mechanics were out of whack because of his groin. Top it off that Bailey also said he had been pitching through it and not using his legs so much, which is a serious mechanical problem (maybe the one he was indirectly noting), and that he was starting to feel it in his arm, and that is when the Reds shut him down.

Sounds to me that the timeline works fine.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 01:33 AM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto is like night and day. Cueto, unlike Bailey, has great command of three pitches. That will allow Cueto IMO to be a successful major league pitcher from day one, whereas it's going to take a while for Homer.

I really like Cueto but I'm not sure how much command he has and I don't really think he's ready based on what I saw on Monday. Out of the three, and I am admitting it, Volquez looks to be the most ready. Cueto looks good at times, but pitching against Miggy, Ordonez, and Co., he looked like a kid that needs more minor league time. They were several balls that were hit well and were at someone or the wind knocked them down. I was very excited to see him pitch on TV, but I hope it was just a blip on the radar. His command was nowhere to be found on Monday. The difference between Cueto and Bailey is that Cueto misses down in the zone and Bailey misses up. I am worried that the Reds are putting too much on Cueto this early in his career. I would leave him in Louisville for a while unless Monday was just a mirage and he's actually better than that. All the hype about Cueto based on 9 innings before Monday leaves me scratching my head.

*BaseClogger*
03-19-2008, 01:35 AM
I really like Cueto but I'm not sure how much command he has and I don't really think he's ready based on what I saw on Monday.

What from Monday concerned you? A couple times he lost his control and walked guys (first time all spring), but he was unhittable, made Carlos Guillen look silly, and fought out of some jams...

Jpup
03-19-2008, 01:43 AM
What from Monday concerned you? A couple times he lost his control and walked guys (first time all spring), but he was unhittable, made Carlos Guillen look silly, and fought out of some jams...

i editted my post so that might help, sorry about that. Go back and watch him pitch to Cabrera and Ordonez. Where was the command?

SteelSD
03-19-2008, 01:47 AM
And yet John Fay still reported the injury happening before the June 26th game against the Phillies. Bailey made mention of it, but not until a week or two later. Bailey saying it was a mechanical issue doesn't mean it wasn't because his mechanics were out of whack because of his groin. Top it off that Bailey also said he had been pitching through it and not using his legs so much, which is a serious mechanical problem (maybe the one he was indirectly noting), and that he was starting to feel it in his arm, and that is when the Reds shut him down.

Sounds to me that the timeline works fine.

That's an exceptionally convoluted timeline. If the issue was real and severe enough to impact performance you shouldn't need to reach for straws to support your position.

You're wrong, doug. You always have been on this issue. Bailey's MLB issues were those of a rushed pitcher having to face hitters before he was ready.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 01:57 AM
That's an exceptionally convoluted timeline. If the issue was real and severe enough to impact performance you shouldn't need to reach for straws to support your position.

You're wrong, doug. You always have been on this issue. Bailey's MLB issues were those of a rushed pitcher having to face hitters before he was ready.

what do you think about Cueto and Volquez?

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 02:58 AM
That's an exceptionally convoluted timeline. If the issue was real and severe enough to impact performance you shouldn't need to reach for straws to support your position.

You're wrong, doug. You always have been on this issue. Bailey's MLB issues were those of a rushed pitcher having to face hitters before he was ready.

Yeah, he was really 'rushed' and not ready in those 6 starts around that injured time when he went out and posted a 3.86 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. It isn't 'reaching for straws'. It is exactly what was reported.
So lets examine the facts.

John Fay reports Homer Bailey suffers groin injury prior to June 26th start on slippery mound.

Homer Bailey makes comments early on that his mechanics are the issue.

Homer gets demoted.

Homer gets put on the DL.

Homer says he has been pitching with hurt groin and he had been doing it long enough that he began to feel it in his arm.

Homer comes back in September healthy and pitches decently well.

Straws? Nah.

Ron Madden
03-19-2008, 03:52 AM
Homer Bailey WAS RUSHED to the Major Leagues. That in it's self says he was NOT READY YET.

The real question should be, Why was Bailey rushed?

Maybe it was because of the horrible Pitching Staff the Front Office chose to go into battle with in 2007.

Maybe it was because Jerry Narron publicly begged on a daily basis for Bailey to be promoted.

Maybe it was because "Tired Ol" Marty Brennamen" and his band of yes men made up of local Beat Writers and Radio Sportstalk Host lead the rally cry of the fanbase.

Maybe it was because the Front Office honestly thought that Homer was ready.

Whatever the reason is the blame should not be put on Homer Bailey, the blame should be laid at the feet of the Reds Front Office.

;)

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2008, 09:58 AM
I really like Cueto but I'm not sure how much command he has and I don't really think he's ready based on what I saw on Monday. Out of the three, and I am admitting it, Volquez looks to be the most ready. Cueto looks good at times, but pitching against Miggy, Ordonez, and Co., he looked like a kid that needs more minor league time. They were several balls that were hit well and were at someone or the wind knocked them down. I was very excited to see him pitch on TV, but I hope it was just a blip on the radar. His command was nowhere to be found on Monday. The difference between Cueto and Bailey is that Cueto misses down in the zone and Bailey misses up. I am worried that the Reds are putting too much on Cueto this early in his career. I would leave him in Louisville for a while unless Monday was just a mirage and he's actually better than that. All the hype about Cueto based on 9 innings before Monday leaves me scratching my head.

What pitchers aren't scared (if you wanna call it that) of Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez? Those are two of the best hitters in baseball. I am really surprised by the several balls hit hard hard comment. I didn't see that at all. I can't even really remember a hard hit ball against him, even the two hits were bloop singles on pitches in the dirt.

bucksfan2
03-19-2008, 10:23 AM
I don't think Bailey was rushed so much. There were some things that he still needs to work on but I bet you could say that about a number of 21 year olds. I think at times he was over mateched but at times he was very effective. The problem with Homer, and probably will be with both Volquez and Cueto, was the expectations. Many expected Homer to be dominant the moment he was called up. When he wasn't he was rushed or he wasn't ready, or he is a bust, or he needs to be traded while he has any value, etc.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 10:36 AM
What pitchers aren't scared (if you wanna call it that) of Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez? Those are two of the best hitters in baseball. I am really surprised by the several balls hit hard hard comment. I didn't see that at all. I can't even really remember a hard hit ball against him, even the two hits were bloop singles on pitches in the dirt.

Aaron Harang. That's why it's pure BS when you have these writer's saying these scouts are saying Cueto is better than Harang. None of these kids could hold his jock when it comes to pitching in the big leagues. It's not fair to Cueto because he can't live up to those expectations.

Watch the second inning. The ball was hit very hard against him.

RedlegJake
03-19-2008, 10:45 AM
Cueto had his worst outing and it was a pretty darn good one. Not even Santana is always dominant and always has command. It's how you pitch when you're not in synch. Do you pitch through it without falling apart? Do you find your rhythm as the game goes on? Cueto did. He was facing a tremendous lineup, too, not alot of B game patsies. I thought his start showed he's tempermentally ready more than anything.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 10:47 AM
Cueto had his worst outing and it was a pretty darn good one. Not even Santana is always dominant and always has command. It's how you pitch when you're not in synch. Do you pitch through it without falling apart? Do you find your rhythm as the game goes on? Cueto did. He was facing a tremendous lineup, too, not alot of B game patsies. I thought his start showed he's tempermentally ready more than anything.

Bailey was also facing tough competition, but I think I'm the only one that mentioned that.

membengal
03-19-2008, 10:52 AM
jpup: I think you watched a different game than I did.

btw, you DO understand that even the very bestest pitchers of all-time give up the occasional walk and runs, right? To my knowledge, there has never been a starting pitcher who actually started, say, 5 or so games, in the history of baseball to finish the season with a 0.00 era.

Just sayin'.

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2008, 11:06 AM
Bailey was also facing tough competition, but I think I'm the only one that mentioned that.

Cueto has also faced very tough competition. He pitched four innings last week against the Phillies "A" lineup and held them to one hit over four scoreless innings. On Monday he faced Detroit, a team who many are saying could score 1000 runs this season. Yeah they were missing Sheffield and Granderson in that game but the top six was no slouch.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:09 AM
jpup: I think you watched a different game than I did.

btw, you DO understand that even the very bestest pitchers of all-time give up the occasional walk and runs, right? To my knowledge, there has never been a starting pitcher who actually started, say, 5 or so games, in the history of baseball to finish the season with a 0.00 era.

Just sayin'.

nope I didn't. Turn the sound off and watch the game. I think I'm just pointing out the obvious.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:11 AM
Cueto has also faced very tough competition. He pitched four innings last week against the Phillies "A" lineup and held them to one hit over four scoreless innings. On Monday he faced Detroit, a team who many are saying could score 1000 runs this season. Yeah they were missing Sheffield and Granderson in that game but the top six was no slouch.

I didn't say he wasn't. It's just pure hyperbole, Jim Ross type BS, to say Cueto in the same breath as Harang as a starter. It's plain silly. Like I said, I hope it's a blip in the radar, but he kid doesn't look ready IMO. I think Volquez is a whole lot closer. Send him to AAA and put Belisle in the rotation until another starter is needed.

RedlegJake
03-19-2008, 11:13 AM
Jpup you're sure entitled to your opinion but I have to wonder if any pitcher would ever be deemed ready by you if Cueto's spring hasn't been enough.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:14 AM
Jpup you're sure entitled to your opinion but I have to wonder if any pitcher would ever be deemed ready by you if Cueto's spring hasn't been enough.

13 innings and he's ready? Get real.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 11:14 AM
It was reported by John Fay that he was suffering from groin problems due to slipping on a wet mound warming up before the June 26th game. Incidentally he fell apart from that point forward. You can say it was a coincidence or made up cover up or whatever you want. I think the two things (injury and insane decline in performance) go hand in hand.

Except for the fact that Bailey had his 2nd best start of 2007 after he supposedly severely hurt his groin in Philly.

That debunks your injury and insane clown posse decline in performance theory.

membengal
03-19-2008, 11:14 AM
jpup: I did watch the game without the sound. You are complaining because he gave up a few walks and a few runs. Something that happens to every pitcher in baseball. Something which, a quick glance through the box scores over the last 48 hours, has happened to a ton of "name" established pitchers just this week.

I guess I am not down with over-reactions to normal baseball events. Like pitchers giving up runs. And focusing on that over the other stuff. Like the settling down and retiring 11 of 12. Like looking at that outing in its entirety. Or meshed in with his other outings.

Sure, he didn't look good when giving up runs. Um, pitchers seldom do. Isolate any one pitch, or at-bat, and any pitcher can look awful. Heck, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA all-time gem of a season would look not great for "command" and "runs" if you focused on just those times he gave up walks and runs.

Again, just sayin'.

13 innings? I will get real. Especially when weighed with the 200 he racked up last season. At this point, there is little doubt that he is easily one of the best starting pitching options for this team in 2008.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:16 AM
I did watch the game without the sound. You are complaining because he gave up a few walks and a few runs. Something that happens to every pitcher in baseball. Something which, a quick glance through the box scores over the last 48 hours, has happened to a ton of "name" established pitchers just this week.

I guess I am not down with over-reactions to normal baseball events. Like pitchers giving up runs. And focusing on that over the other stuff. Like the settling down and retiring 11 of 12. Like looking at that outing in its entirety. Or meshed in with his other outings.

Sure, he didn't look good when giving up runs. Um, pitchers seldom do. Isolate any one pitch, or at-bat, and any pitcher can look awful. Heck, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA all-time gem of a season would look not great for "command" and "runs" if you focused on just those times he gave up walks and runs.

Again, just sayin'.

2nd innning, check it out. He got the outs, but he ball was hit very hard to short and center. The wind knocked the ball down that was hit by Sardinha. If Dane Sardinha is rocking you, I don't know how great thou art.

Team Clark
03-19-2008, 11:17 AM
jpup: I did watch the game without the sound. You are complaining because he gave up a few walks and a few runs. Something that happens to every pitcher in baseball. Something which, a quick glance through the box scores over the last 48 hours, has happened to a ton of "name" established pitchers just this week.

I guess I am not down with over-reactions to normal baseball events. Like pitchers giving up runs. And focusing on that over the other stuff. Like the settling down and retiring 11 of 12. Like looking at that outing in its entirety. Or meshed in with his other outings.

Sure, he didn't look good when giving up runs. Um, pitchers seldom do. Isolate any one pitch, or at-bat, and any pitcher can look awful. Heck, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA all-time gem of a season would look not great for "command" and "runs" if you focused on just those times he gave up walks and runs.

Again, just sayin'.

13 innings? I will get real. Especially when weighed with the 200 he racked up last season.


Excellent points. I look forward to seeing both Cueto and Volquez in the rotation if not for just the hype? i.e Hamilton in 2007.

In JPUP's defense Victor Santos walked on water last spring...

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:18 AM
13 innings? I will get real. Especially when weighed with the 200 he racked up last season. At this point, there is little doubt that he is easily one of the best starting pitching options for this team in 2008.

I won't deny that. That doesn't make him ready.

membengal
03-19-2008, 11:18 AM
You DO understand that even the very bestest pitchers of all time occasionally give up hard hit outs, right?

Even them?

RedlegJake
03-19-2008, 11:18 AM
jpup:
13 innings? I will get real. Especially when weighed with the 200 he racked up last season. At this point, there is little doubt that he is easily one of the best starting pitching options for this team in 2008.

Exactly. I'm not basing my opinion just on ST for Cueto but how he handled all of last year as well, also his repertoire which is three filthy pitches all of which he pounds the zone with.

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:20 AM
You DO understand that even the very bestest pitchers of all time occasionally give up hard hit outs, right?

Even them?

yes. I watch a lot of baseball. I understand the game. That's why I think Cueto looks a little green. He's going to be good, but I don't think it's now. I sure hope the Reds are right and I'm not.

Volquez looks more impressive than Cueto to me.

RedlegJake
03-19-2008, 11:28 AM
yes. I watch a lot of baseball. I understand the game. That's why I think Cueto looks a little green. He's going to be good, but I don't think it's now. I sure hope the Reds are right and I'm not.

Volquez looks more impressive than Cueto to me.


I accept that. Volquez looks pretty darn good to me, too. If I had to pick only one to make the rotation it would be Edinson but Cueto has earned a shot, imo, as well.

Bailey is the guy I think some people are giving up on too soon. If Cueto slips, Homer may be ready to come from AAA and stick. Whatever way you look at it, though, isn't it great to have so many young arms with real talent?

Jpup
03-19-2008, 11:31 AM
I accept that. Volquez looks pretty darn good to me, too. If I had to pick only one to make the rotation it would be Edinson but Cueto has earned a shot, imo, as well.

Bailey is the guy I think some people are giving up on too soon. If Cueto slips, Homer may be ready to come from AAA and stick. Whatever way you look at it, though, isn't it great to have so many young arms with real talent?

yes, it's great. I love these young guys but I think the Reds need to be really careful. I think Homer needs to stick to AAA until he can throw a different breaking pitch and/or get his change and curve over for strikes. I'm not sure the Reds aren't messing with him too much.

membengal
03-19-2008, 11:37 AM
I don't know why we need to pick between Cueto and Volquez. They both can comfortably start for this team.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 01:34 PM
Except for the fact that Bailey had his 2nd best start of 2007 after he supposedly severely hurt his groin in Philly.

That debunks your injury and insane clown posse decline in performance theory.

No, it doesn't.

You keep pretending as if I am making something up here. As if I pulled the injury thing out of my butt. I didn't. Homer Bailey said it. John Fay said it. Baseball America backs it up. Wayne Krivsky backs it up.

Yeah, he had a very strong game after hurting his groin. There are tons of reasons on what could have led to that.... wide strikezone, good luck, heck, maybe even good control of his offspeed stuff (which would make his slower fastball, which it was at the time, still be a good pitch).

This is a silly argument. Bailey was hurt. It was reported. Because it doesn't work with your 'Bailey was rushed' ideology doesn't mean a whole lot. Everyone isn't out there to try and trick us. The injury happened.

So either Homer, John Fay, Wayne Krivsky and I are all liars... or you are wrong. Its one of the two things.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 03:04 PM
No, it doesn't.

You keep pretending as if I am making something up here. As if I pulled the injury thing out of my butt. I didn't. Homer Bailey said it. John Fay said it. Baseball America backs it up. Wayne Krivsky backs it up.

Yeah, he had a very strong game after hurting his groin. There are tons of reasons on what could have led to that.... wide strikezone, good luck, heck, maybe even good control of his offspeed stuff (which would make his slower fastball, which it was at the time, still be a good pitch).

This is a silly argument. Bailey was hurt. It was reported. Because it doesn't work with your 'Bailey was rushed' ideology doesn't mean a whole lot. Everyone isn't out there to try and trick us. The injury happened.

So either Homer, John Fay, Wayne Krivsky and I are all liars... or you are wrong. Its one of the two things.

Show us where Krivsky backs up the severity of the injury.

Bailey might have been "hurt". Let's give him the benefit of the doubt there, but my claim, as well as I believe Steel's claim is rooted with the severity of Bailey's injured groin. It's not a hard concept to grasp, yet it continues to elude you: Bailey wasn't as injured as advertised.

Now let me ask you, and all of RedsZone something. Have you ever been asked by a trainer "Are you hurt, or are you injured?"

In all likelihood, Bailey was "hurt", but not "injured". Homer Bailey certainly isn't the first, and most certainly won't be the last athlete to use "injury" as an excuse for poor performance.

Beat writers, like Fay, are "yes-men", hanging on every word that comes out of athletes' mouths. Bailey said he was injured. Fay believed him. Pretty easy concept to understand there. It doesn't mean that Bailey was truthful in his disclosure to Fay, and in all actuality exaggerated the condition of his groin.

How many times have you seen a sprinter grab the back of his leg to symbolize a pulled hamstring when he has a bad race, only to be back to racing form sooner than a full rehab would allow? I remember plenty of guys in HS track that would grab their leg, act like they pulled a hammy, and then would run perfectly fine the next day, or even later in the same meet. But I'm sure I'm wrong about this too, right?

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 03:11 PM
So his absolutely horrible numbers over 23 or so innings (majors and minors) in the middle of the season that perfectly coincides with an injury was just him sucking and not being ready, but the other 90+ innings of sub 3.00 ERA between AAA and MLB was just him being lucky for 58 AAA innings and 35 major league innings?

So we have an injury, or a made up injury, that led to 20 or so innings of 10+ ERA and a 2+ WHIP (MLB 3 starts and 2 starts in AAA) and that was the real Homer not being ready.....

or

We have 58 innings of 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP of Homer Bailey in AAA and 35 innings in MLB of 3.86 ERA and 1.31 WHIP of Homer being lucky and not ready?

M2
03-19-2008, 03:19 PM
If you're looking for the the outliers in Homer Bailey's season, it's the starts against the A's, DBacks and Giants. Outside of those, he was a consistently poor pitcher from June 8 on.

That same pitcher showed up again in ST this year. It wasn't a mirage or the result of some nebulous injury. The kid's got control issues. The 1.56 WHIP and 1.00 K/BB he posted last year are representative of the kind of pitcher he is at the moment.

RedsManRick
03-19-2008, 03:56 PM
yes. I watch a lot of baseball. I understand the game. That's why I think Cueto looks a little green.

I'm just curious what you're seeing that makes you come to this conclusion.

I haven't seen anything from Cueto this spring that makes me think he's not ready. Admittedly that doesn't mean he IS ready, but if all we were judging on his the last few weeks, I'd have to think he was our ace.

Aronchis
03-19-2008, 04:13 PM
Just the K/9 decline in AAA after 2 years of 10+ K/9 in 3 levels was a example of how a groin injury could shake Homer. His mechanics are very leg/torso driven, would definitely affect him more than say..........Johnny Cueto.

He wasn't in good shape. Rests 10 days after groin "pull" determined and then returns to AAA thus his K/9 starts moving up before the Reds called him up. IMO, he got a bit better physically and it showed with a more lively fastball. The Reds probably thought he was healthy and called up him up. But he wasn't cured.

Then he had about 4 weeks off(and the mysterious return to Texas for "personal reasons") to recover.

He came back to Sarasota and looked poor. But when he returned to Cincy he threw the best he had since 2006 in terms of his velocity stamina. Seems to take awhile for him to build up. Not uncommon as historical examples are abound.

So either it was:
1.Homer struggled so badly against AAA hitters, he had to tame back his fastball to "command it"
2.Homer was injured and not throwing his best besides strapping him of stamina.

I mean, look at the K/9. Simply to low. Even a struggling Homer Bailey would put up decent K/9 numbers ala 2005 when he was messing around in the tandom system.

K/9 collapse was IMO injury induced, the scary thing, would be what type of injury? He should get back around K/9 in AAA of 9-10this year at least. If he can't. He has more problems than not being ready.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 06:04 PM
So his absolutely horrible numbers over 23 or so innings (majors and minors) in the middle of the season that perfectly coincides with an injury was just him sucking and not being ready, but the other 90+ innings of sub 3.00 ERA between AAA and MLB was just him being lucky for 58 AAA innings and 35 major league innings?

So we have an injury, or a made up injury, that led to 20 or so innings of 10+ ERA and a 2+ WHIP (MLB 3 starts and 2 starts in AAA) and that was the real Homer not being ready.....

or

We have 58 innings of 2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP of Homer Bailey in AAA and 35 innings in MLB of 3.86 ERA and 1.31 WHIP of Homer being lucky and not ready?

Since you seem to have intimate knowledge of Homer Bailey's medical history, will you please identify which starts he was "injured" in 2007, and which starts he was "hurt"? Please?

I'm not sure why you choose to include his AAA stats, which never indicated at anytime he was clearly ready for the show without a shadow of a doubt. He walked truckloads of guys at AAA, so he was going to magically not walk MLB guys? He had decent strikeout numbers at AAA, but when he got to the show his strikeout numbers were drastically lower.

I guess I'm confused as to why you can't entertain the thought that athletes use "injury" as an excuse for poor performance. Bailey probably was "hurt" at times in 2007 due to his body not being physically mature yet, but at no time in 2007 was Bailey as "injured" as advertised.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 06:33 PM
Since you seem to have intimate knowledge of Homer Bailey's medical history, will you please identify which starts he was "injured" in 2007, and which starts he was "hurt"? Please?
Starts before June 26th 2007, were healthy ones. Starts from June 26th - his MLB return were injured/rehab stats.



I'm not sure why you choose to include his AAA stats, which never indicated at anytime he was clearly ready for the show without a shadow of a doubt. He walked truckloads of guys at AAA, so he was going to magically not walk MLB guys? He had decent strikeout numbers at AAA, but when he got to the show his strikeout numbers were drastically lower.
Well, there is a clear line from his AAA numbers the first time, when he was healthy (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) to his 'demotion' AAA numbers, that ballooned his walkrate from a not so good rate to an above 4 rate) as well as his ERA up almost a run. This has nothing to do with being ready or not being ready. He wasn't ready to be polished MLB stud last year. He however was ready to provide the team help last year, when he was healthy and he did just that.



I guess I'm confused as to why you can't entertain the thought that athletes use "injury" as an excuse for poor performance. Bailey probably was "hurt" at times in 2007 due to his body not being physically mature yet, but at no time in 2007 was Bailey as "injured" as advertised.
I am equally as confused as to why you can't entertain the idea that Bailey was really good for 93 innings when there weren't reports of an injury and then attrociously bad for 19 innings when there were reports of an injury, that there wasn't some injury affecting his performance.

AAA+MLB pre June 26th plus his 3 final starts - 93.3ip, 67 hits, 71K, 42 walks, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

MLB+AAA post June 26th through return to MLB - 19.3ip, 25 hits, 16K, 18 BB, 10.14 ERA and 2.24 WHIP.

I just don't get how you can look at those numbers, look at the reports of injury by Bailey, Fay and the Reds and then say he wasn't injured as advertised.

I mean we have noted injury. We have obvious decline in performance. Yet the injury is 'not as advertised'? I just don't get it.

M2
03-19-2008, 06:59 PM
So what's wrong with Homer's groin now?

pedro
03-19-2008, 07:01 PM
So what's wrong with Homer's groin now?

Rumor has it that's where his brain is located.

Aronchis
03-19-2008, 07:39 PM
So what's wrong with Homer's groin now?

What does Homer's groin have to do about getting ready for the season?

M2
03-19-2008, 07:44 PM
What does Homer's groin have to do about getting ready for the season?

Apparently he's a sure thing on the mound when his groin's not bothering him. So I can only assume his groin has been acting up this spring.

Aronchis
03-19-2008, 07:46 PM
Apparently he's a sure thing on the mound when his groin's not bothering him. So I can only assume his groin has been acting up this spring.

Nope, he is a sure thing to put up better than a 7.9K/9 in AAA if he was healthy.

That fact amazingly surpasses you.

Spring Training? Who cares.

M2
03-19-2008, 08:07 PM
Nope, he is a sure thing to put up better than a 7.9K/9 in AAA if he was healthy.

That fact amazingly surpasses you

What amazingly surpasses you is his K rate was down from the jump last year, even when doug says he was healthy.

His K rate was down because he was put up against hitters who knew to lay off of pitches that hitters at lower levels would swing at. It's a fairly common occurence to see the K rate of young pitchers drop as they move to new levels. Justin Verlander, with stuff on loan from God, had a 6.00 K/9 his first season in the majors.

In Bailey's case the BBs went up, the Ks went down and better hitters made better contact against him. That's fairly standard stuff for young pitchers, about as surprising as the sun coming up in the east.

Highlifeman21
03-19-2008, 08:07 PM
Starts before June 26th 2007, were healthy ones. Starts from June 26th - his MLB return were injured/rehab stats.


Well, there is a clear line from his AAA numbers the first time, when he was healthy (2.31 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) to his 'demotion' AAA numbers, that ballooned his walkrate from a not so good rate to an above 4 rate) as well as his ERA up almost a run. This has nothing to do with being ready or not being ready. He wasn't ready to be polished MLB stud last year. He however was ready to provide the team help last year, when he was healthy and he did just that.


I am equally as confused as to why you can't entertain the idea that Bailey was really good for 93 innings when there weren't reports of an injury and then attrociously bad for 19 innings when there were reports of an injury, that there wasn't some injury affecting his performance.

AAA+MLB pre June 26th plus his 3 final starts - 93.3ip, 67 hits, 71K, 42 walks, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.

MLB+AAA post June 26th through return to MLB - 19.3ip, 25 hits, 16K, 18 BB, 10.14 ERA and 2.24 WHIP.

I just don't get how you can look at those numbers, look at the reports of injury by Bailey, Fay and the Reds and then say he wasn't injured as advertised.

I mean we have noted injury. We have obvious decline in performance. Yet the injury is 'not as advertised'? I just don't get it.

Per kffl.com -


Reds | Bailey goes on Triple-A disabled list
Tue, 15 May 2007 08:52:20 -0700

Mark Sheldon, of Cincinnati.Reds.MLB.com, reports Cincinnati Reds P Homer Bailey (groin) was placed on Triple-A Louisville's 15-day disabled list Monday, May 14.




Reds | Bailey likely to be activated Tuesday
Sun, 20 May 2007 13:35:24 -0700

Cincinnati Reds minor league SP Homer Bailey (groin), now with Triple-A Louisville, is eligible to be activated from the seven-day disabled list, Sunday, May 20, according to Mark Sheldon of Cincinnati.Reds.MLB.com. He is expected to be activated Tuesday, May 22, when he would take his regular turn in the rotation against Columbus.




Reds | Bailey to make debut Friday
Tue, 5 Jun 2007 12:16:08 -0700

Updating a previous report, Mark Sheldon, of MLB.com, reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey will be called up from Triple-A Louisville and start Friday, June 8, against the Cleveland Indians.



So let me get this straight...

Bailey was healthy between 6/8/07 and 6/26/07 at the MLB level, yet he spent some time on the AAA DL between 5/14/07 and 5/22/07?

I'm guessing he "healed" between 5/14/07 and 6/25/07, and then on 6/26/07 gets his butt handed to him by the Phillies, only to chalk up the poor outing to slipping the mound and injuring his groin. What I'd like to know is why was Fay the only one reporting Bailey "injured his groin in the bullpen session prior to the 6/26 start in Philly"? No one else reported that.

So then let's fast-forward to 7/1/07.


Reds | Bailey detects pitching flaw after another loss
Sun, 1 Jul 2007 19:57:37 -0700

The Associated Press' Joe Kay reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey detected an unspecified flaw in his pitching mechanics while watching video of his latest effort Sunday, July 1. Bailey was hit hard for the second consecutive outing. "I knew something was wrong, but I couldn't figure out what it was," said Bailey. "It's a small, mechanical thing."


You'd think that a guy with a groin injury would mention his groin injury as the main culprit impacting his mechanics, right? Tell ya what, if I had a hurt groin and it was affecting my pitching mechanics, I definitely would list that as the direct cause for my troubles, but I guess when your groin isn't as hurt as you want us to believe, you can't remember the make-believe pain during an interview to mention the injury....

The kicker for me is how Wayne Krivsky "rewards" Bailey for arguably his best start of the year on 7/7/07.... he demotes him. The ASB happened, and Wayne wanted to keep Homer on regular work, b/c ya know resting that hurt groin would be a bad thing....


Reds | Bailey sent to minors for extra work
Sun, 8 Jul 2007 12:23:33 -0700

Updating previous reports, Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey was optioned to Triple-A Louisville so that he can keep working over the All-Star break, according to the Associated Press. Sending him to the minors will keep him on schedule. General manager Wayne Krivsky said the move would not have happened if not for the break, and added that Bailey wouldn't have pitched for eight or nine days if he hadn't been sent down.



So then Hal (oh, how we all love Hal) chimes in to give us an update on the "injured" Bailey.


Reds | Bailey to stay in Louisville until he improves
Mon, 16 Jul 2007 22:49:09 -0700

Hal McCoy, of The Dayton Daily News, reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey will stay at Triple-A Louisville until he displays more effectiveness on the mound. In his last minor-league start, Bailey needed 90 pitches to get through 3 1/3 innings. "There is no timetable for Homer," Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky said. "Go pitch and get people out. The better you pitch, the better chance you have to get back."



Still, for a guy with an "injured" groin, no mention of said injury. Just a mandate from the GM to his young arm to hone his craft, in a matter of speaking.

So, a couple days later, the young stud's GM puts him on the team's AAA DL in a smokescreen move.

More Jay Fay to the rescue!


Reds | Bailey will be reevaluated in two weeks
Fri, 20 Jul 2007 17:18:24 -0700

Updating a previous report, John Fay, of the Cincinnati Enquirer, reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey (groin) has a moderate groin strain and will be reevaluated in two weeks.



John Fay continues to be the only one reporting about Homer's groin. Good for him. Good for Homer. Good for Homer's groin.

6 days later....

Homer plays catch! Yippie!


Reds | Bailey plays catch
Thu, 26 Jul 2007 16:46:26 -0700

Mark Sheldon, of Cincinnati.Reds.MLB.com, reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey (groin) played catch Thursday, July 26, for the first time since going on the disabled list.



Fast-forward to 9/20/07. The groin is healed!


Reds | Bailey recalled
Thu, 20 Sep 2007 16:34:29 -0700

Updating previous reports, The Associated Press reports Cincinnati Reds SP Homer Bailey has been recalled from Class A Sarasota.



"Healthy" Homer pitches 3 more times after his September call-up, faring well against an ancient and horrible Giants lineup, has a so-so outing against a bad Astros team, and then gets knocked around against the Cubs in his final start of 2007. In those "healthy" starts, he strikes out twice as many as he walks, yet gives up 7 earned in 17 IP for a solid 3.71 ERA. If he was healthy prior to 6/26/07, then how come he had 1 outstanding start (6/19/07 vs Oakland) and 2 lackluster starts? (7 ER in 11 IP for a 5.73 ERA, 7 BB vs 4 K, 12 H given up which leads to a 1.73 WHIP)

I think M2 said it best. If you remove his outlier starts (6/19, 7/7 and 9/20), Homer Bailey was pedestrian, at best, in 2007. Health had nothing to do with Bailey's struggles in 2007 as much as his lack of command and control were the direct causes of said struggles.

To my untrained eye, it seems that Fay was the only one mentioning Homer's injured groin, and if 6/26/07 is in fact the day of injured infamy, then the Reds not only mismanaged Bailey in 2007 by bringing him up when he wasn't ready, but also mismanaged him while he was injured, by not putting him on the AAA DL until 7/20/07, almost a full month after getting "injured".

Something doesn't add up.

dougdirt
03-19-2008, 08:43 PM
You are right, something doesn't add up. Bailey hid an injury, finally admitted to it, the Reds reacted and DL'd him. Poor job by both Bailey and the Reds (for not detecting it).

Highlifeman21
03-20-2008, 11:20 AM
You are right, something doesn't add up. Bailey hid an injury, finally admitted to it, the Reds reacted and DL'd him. Poor job by both Bailey and the Reds (for not detecting it).

It's a lot easier to say "I'm injured" when you're not performing how you think you should, or possibly can.

It's a lot easier to give the athlete an excuse for performance, rather than to admit he wasn't ready for the MLB level.

Bailey struggled, so he said he was "injured".

The Reds ran with the "injury", rather than saying "we were wrong, he wasn't ready."




Based on Bailey's 2008 ST numbers, is he "injured" or "not ready"? I haven't seen any reports or updates about his groin in ST, so is it safe to assume he's still not ready?