PDA

View Full Version : Fay's 25 Man Roster Prediction-Ugly



reds44
03-19-2008, 08:54 PM
http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/2008/03/my-25-man-roster.asp



Starting eight
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
The skinny: This is assumes that Alex Gonzalez and David Ross begin the year on the disabled list. The only questions here are center field and first base. Patterson seems to have won the job in center with a good spring (.455 average) and he’s Baker’s guy. Norris Hopper will likely get a lot time against left-handers. Baker likes Joey Votto a lot. But Hatteberg’s hitting .382; Votto’s hitting .158. The Reds may want Votto to his bat going in AAA.

The bench
Norris Hopper
Ryan Freel
Juan Castro
Paul Bako
Andy Green
The skinny: I’m confident on the first four. Green, Jolbert Cabrera, Jerry Gil, Drew Anderson, Jerry Hairston and Andy Phillips all have made strong cases for the 25th man spot.

Starting rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Josh Fogg
The skinny: Homer Bailey and Matt Belisle have options. They’ll be a phone call way should Cueto, Volquez or Fogg falter.

The bullpen
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Mike Stanton
Bill Bray
Todd Coffey
Jeremy Affeldt
The skinny: The Reds would like to keep Kent Mercker in the mix. He’d probably make the club if Stanton didn’t have a guaranteed contract. There’s also a chance Belisle could be shifted to relief.

Corey Patterson, Norris Hopper, Ryan Freel, Paul Bako, Juan Castro, and Andy Green. That would be half of the Reds position players. That is just ugly. The Reds desperatley need to trade for a catcher by shipping Ryan Freel out, and I'd rather see just about anybody but Juan Castro and Andy Green on the roster.

The offense may not be as good as some people think if that ends up being the way things shake out.

kbrake
03-19-2008, 08:59 PM
My biggest concerns about Fay's predictions are Castro and the catching situation. How anyone thinks Juan Castro has any actual value is truly mind boggling to me. He is not a five tool player, but a zero tool player. He does nothing well.

That catching situation is rough but can't blame Fay for that. If a move is not made before Opening Day thats the way its going to be with Bako/Valentin. That is really scary.

reds44
03-19-2008, 09:02 PM
Here was Fay's predictions pre-spring training.



Starting eight
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Alex Gonzalez
3B Edwin Encarnacion
RF Ken Griffey Jr.
CF Jay Bruce
LF Adam Dunn
C David Ross


Bench:
OF/INF Jeff Keppinger
OF/INF Ryan Freel
OF Norris Hopper
C Javier Valentin
1B Scott Hatteberg

Rotation:
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Matt Belisle
Jeremy Affeldt
Homer Bailey


Bullpen:
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Bill Bray
Mike Stanton
Todd Coffey
Edinson Volquez

So he has since changed 60% of the starting rotation and 50% of the starting lineup.

4256 Hits
03-19-2008, 09:17 PM
Hey Fay what about Belisle?

red-in-la
03-19-2008, 09:48 PM
The bench is bad.....NO POWER at all. I think Baker will want at least some options along those lines and I think Fay is missing that point. I also do NOT see how you remove a guy hitting .380 in ST and is a professional hitter from your bench by sending Votto down and relying on Hatteberg to start.

Another thing I don't think Baker will do.

So Votto stays, Hatteberg stays on the bench and I think one of Cabrera, Gil or Phillips makes the squad.

I also believe that the media is greatly over estimating the moeny issues here. Castelinni has shown that he is willing to eat money......Freel, Stanton and Castro's contract will have no impact on the roster (IMHO).

Kc61
03-19-2008, 09:53 PM
My biggest concerns about Fay's predictions are Castro and the catching situation. How anyone thinks Juan Castro has any actual value is truly mind boggling to me. He is not a five tool player, but a zero tool player. He does nothing well.

That catching situation is rough but can't blame Fay for that. If a move is not made before Opening Day thats the way its going to be with Bako/Valentin. That is really scary.


So another post dissing Castro. Guy has stayed in the major leagues a long time for a zero tool player who does nothing well.

He's the third string shortstop. The main guy is injured and Honus Wagner is unavailable.

Boss-Hog
03-19-2008, 10:04 PM
Here was Fay's predictions pre-spring training.


So he has since changed 60% of the starting rotation and 50% of the starting lineup.
Not to defend Fay, but two of those four starting lineup changes are due to injuries. Also, for better or worse, Patterson has since been signed.

WMR
03-19-2008, 10:16 PM
So another post dissing Castro. Guy has stayed in the major leagues a long time for a zero tool player who does nothing well.

He's the third string shortstop. The main guy is injured and Honus Wagner is unavailable.

As long as the Reds continue making stupid roster decisions, it's up to us to point them out.

The moment they wake up and the horrible Juan Castro is no longer a part of this team will be the exact moment when his glaring suckitude will no longer be discussed ad nauseum on RedsZone.

Matt700wlw
03-19-2008, 10:19 PM
Juan Castro is a great example of how meaningless ST stats can be...

His actual, in-season stats indicate that he shouldn't be on the roster...bench or not. Bench players are supposed to be guys who can light a spark on an as needed basis....Juan Castro does not resemble that remark. Starters are supposed to have a consistancy of productivity...that's not him either...

He's never had a lot of pop in his bat, but at one time had the defense to make up for it...now he has no pop, and his defensive skills have declined...that's what happens. Add an arm injury, and I can't imagine him getting any better

Redhook
03-19-2008, 10:40 PM
Ok, so there are some obvious negatives listed by Fay: Castro, Bako, Green, Stanton, no Votto. If that was the actual bench, and thankfully it won't be, it could possibly go down as one of the worst in history.

But enough with the negatives. I'm pretty excited about the team. The starting 8 and the lineup are pretty good. The starting 5 is the best the Reds have put out there in nearly 2 decades. And while the bullpen isn't the Nasty Boys it does have some good arms and is solidified with Cordero.

I'm optimistic about this team. I do want to see Freel traded, Stanton released, Castro turned into a bench coach, a new catcher, and Votto start at 1B. Hopefully, and I believe, most of those will happen sooner rather than later. If not, my optimism could quickly fade away.

red-in-la
03-19-2008, 11:02 PM
"If we win our first 30....35 games, we're gonna be in first place."

Matt700wlw
03-19-2008, 11:05 PM
"If we win our first 30....35 games, we're gonna be in first place."

I agree...:cool:

Caveat Emperor
03-19-2008, 11:10 PM
There isn't a single bench player in that proposed roster that I'd want to see coming to the plate in the bottom of the 9th with the team needing a run.

red-in-la
03-19-2008, 11:16 PM
I think Phillips, Cabrera and Hatteberg make up a pretty decent 9th inning. You also have Freel and Hopper to get something started eariler on.....and eventually Valentin and Keppinger/Gonzo joins in. So, I don't think the bench HAS TO BE that bad.....unless you let a reporter worried about a couple a million of a multi-millionaire's money make out the roster.

pedro
03-19-2008, 11:40 PM
Not going to keep Andy Green over Votto and Castro is just a place holder for Gonzalez.

RedLegSuperStar
03-20-2008, 09:11 AM
Fay has 4 players on his roster that are not even on the 40 man roster which means with the trade of Salmon that leaves 3 players having to be removed from the roster. Patterson and Cueto I agree with.. but Bako and Green are long shots. Here's what the roster will look like come March 31st:

Starting eight
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Joey Votto 1B
Javier Valentin C

The bench
Norris Hopper
Scott Hatteberg
Juan Castro
David Ross
Jerry Hairston (Alex Gonzales 15 day DL)

Ryan Freel or Norris Hopper will be dealt before spring training is over for a minor leaguer. Thus clearing a spot for Patterson; Cueto would figure to take Salmon's spot on the roster; and Hairston will take over for Gonzales while the Reds will push a young guy through waivers to clear a spot for him. Possibilities: Gardner, Hanigan, Drew Anderson or they could offer Capellan back to the Giants.

Starting rotation
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Edinson Volquez
Josh Fogg

What Cueto and Volquez have done this spring are absolutely amazing and rightfully so they deserve to shine at the next level. Fogg was a bargain at $1,000,000 and will slide into the 5th spot. Belisle could be a long relief guy with Affeldt but there isn't enough room to keep everyone and they may like him as a starter and just send him to Louisville to work on some things along with Bailey.

The bullpen
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Mike Stanton
Bill Bray
Jose Capellan
Jeremy Affeldt

Must say this bullpen looks good and could be the best pen we've had since '99.

klw
03-20-2008, 09:26 AM
Salmon was not on the 40 man anymore. He was released in the late fall to open up his spot. He was on a minor league contract this Spring.

princeton
03-20-2008, 09:29 AM
Must say this bullpen looks good

I predict pain

Kc61
03-20-2008, 09:48 AM
The bullpen
Francisco Cordero
David Weathers
Jared Burton
Mike Stanton
Bill Bray
Jose Capellan
Jeremy Affeldt

Must say this bullpen looks good and could be the best pen we've had since '99.

Four lefties in the pen? Won't happen. The Capellan spot will be either Belisle/Fogg or Coffey. My own hope is Coffey, at least to start out, but I can see the argument for Belisle/Fogg.

Falls City Beer
03-20-2008, 10:04 AM
Two whole offseasons and two deadlines and this is the best that Wayne can do to build a bullpen. Heavens.

BRM
03-20-2008, 10:05 AM
Two whole offseasons and two deadlines and this is the best that Wayne can do to build a bullpen. Heavens.

Whatever do you mean? Fay claims it's a solid group.

princeton is right, pain is coming.

westofyou
03-20-2008, 10:08 AM
John Fay is the guy on the camping trip who stumbles out of his tent, hungover and bleary eyed he then pees on the fire and destroys the serene atmosphere of the campsite with a putrid smell.

He assumed that was the latrine, just like he assumes this will be the roster.

Either way both assumptions end up making everything smell like pee.

princeton
03-20-2008, 10:16 AM
Two whole offseasons and two deadlines and this is the best that Wayne can do to build a bullpen. Heavens.

oh, I'll take Wayne. here's the staff that DanO built:

Harang
Ortiz (acquired)
Milton (signed)
Claussen
Hudson

Weathers
Mercker (signed)
Coffey
Belisle
Wagner
Shackelford

IMO the farm will revitalize the bullpen within 15 months, and we'll no longer be having these discussions. But for now, we'll scramble.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2008, 11:12 AM
O'Brien didn't acquire Harang. Leland Maddux and Brad Kullman made that deal after Bowden was fired.

I agree that the farm will revitalize the bullpen before long. Josh Roenicke and Pedro Viola look like impact arms out of the bullpen. Carlos Fisher has been moved the bullpen and is a guy who could be an impact arm and could even help the Reds sometime late this season.

princeton
03-20-2008, 11:17 AM
O'Brien didn't acquire Harang. Leland Maddux and Brad Kullman made that deal after Bowden was fired.

that's why I didn't list him as "acquired" ;)

Falls City Beer
03-20-2008, 12:28 PM
oh, I'll take Wayne. here's the staff that DanO built:

Harang
Ortiz (acquired)
Milton (signed)
Claussen
Hudson

Weathers
Mercker (signed)
Coffey
Belisle
Wagner
Shackelford

IMO the farm will revitalize the bullpen within 15 months, and we'll no longer be having these discussions. But for now, we'll scramble.

The problem is that DanO's predecessor was known to turn around a bullpen in one offseason. And I'd rather not be in the business of comparing our current GM to Jim Bowden.

Walt Jocketty might do interesting things, though.