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RedlegJake
03-20-2008, 01:51 AM
Jay Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, probably Roenicke before the Year ends, Votto, likely Maloney - all probably end up with the Reds. So who, in your opinion, steps up and takes their places as the next crop of "top" prospects? Is there anyone likely to come close to the same level? Is there a darkhorse Cueto type out there who could emerge from seemingly nowhere? Or has the ship sailed on blue chip prospects for awhile? Is the system down to decent but not great prospects?


Who is most likely to be a premier prospect?
Most likely to flop who is currently rated pretty highly?
And who will seem to come from nowhere to explode on the radar?

My answers:

1. a) Pedro Viola - reliever but he could be a really good one and ready soon. b) Devin Mesorasco - this year he puts himself on the hotsheet for results not just hype.
2. Juan Francisco - until he proves he can hit the offspeed stuff he'll see more and more often as he advances and he learns some selectivity at the plate I'm a doubting Tomas.
3. Josh Ravin - this kid could be great but he's as raw as a March turnip. I'm not including the new DR kid because he won't play this season but he could be next year's choice. The caveat being he really isn't coming from out of nowhere with all the attention paid his signing.

dougdirt
03-20-2008, 03:00 AM
Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, Kyle Lotzkar, Travis Wood, Devin Mesoraco and Juan Duran. Those will be our top 6 prospects at the start of next year, but probably not in that order.

The guy most likely to be the premiere prospect is either Stubbs or Frazier, but Lotzkar blowing up on the scene wouldn't surprise me at all.

The player that I see that will come from nowhere and showing up on peoples radar is going to be Efrain Rodriguez. Last year he really was intriguing as a 17 year old in the GCL. I don't think he will exactly 'explode' onto the scene, but he will make some people keep tabs on him.

I like your Josh Ravin call. He has a big arm and solid mechanics. He could really turn some heads if he can get some control.

podgejeff_
03-20-2008, 10:59 AM
What about a Danny Dorn? He seems to have all the hitting tools and looks like he's moving pretty quickly through the system?

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2008, 11:10 AM
I'm predicting big things from Todd Frazier and Kyle Lotzkar this season. Frazier will reach Double-A sometime this season and probably be ranked as the Reds #1 hitting prospect at this time next season unless Juan Duran steals that from him.

Lotzkar is a guy with a huge ceiling. He's the next Reds pitching prospect in the category of Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto. He throws his fastball comfortably in the 91-94 range and can touch 95. He also throws a hard downer curveball and his changeup has a chance to be a plus pitch down the road. He was very impressive in his pro debut between the GCL and Billings.

Devin Mesoraco, Josh Ravin, and Pedro Viola are all good picks too. I really like Pedro Viola, he could reach the majors sometime this season and provide a boost to the Reds bullpen.

princeton
03-20-2008, 11:29 AM
Reds will be looking most closely at the reliever, catcher, and OF situation, with Jr/Dunn possibly replaced by Stubbs and Dorn, maybe even by a Dorn/Rosales platoon. Frazier or Francisco could get OF time just to see if their bats could be accelerated. Stubbs should start at AA because it hits well.

guys should begin to get shifted from rotation to relief, to see if we can accelerate them as well. Sean Watson is an example, as is Carlos Fisher. Perhaps Watson can really develop quickly in the pen.

if Mesoraco hits, they won't have to draft a catcher number one. If he falls flat, things could change.

RedsManRick
03-20-2008, 11:37 AM
Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier, Tyler Pelland, Pedro Viola

The latter two could both get cups of coffee this year. The other two will just keep hitting.

lollipopcurve
03-20-2008, 11:38 AM
OK, some guys with an opportunity to step up to major league relevance:

Bruce (I'm not convinced he's as ready as is being assumed)

Janish, Jose Castro, Rosales (I think they'd prefer to use Kepp all over the diamond)

Tatum (the position remains essentially vacant)

Viola, Roenicke (lotta age in the pen)


Personally, I'd love to see Rosales put up big numbers and give the Reds something to think about at 3B.

OnBaseMachine
03-20-2008, 12:26 PM
I agree princeton. I'd like to see the Reds begin turning some failed starters with good stuff into relievers. It's already been reported that Carlos Fisher has been coverted to the bullpen. He's not a failed starter but his ceiling as a starter is probably only a #4 starter whereas in the bullpen he profiles as a setup man type. James Avery and Camilo Vazquez are two others that need to switch to the bullpen this season. Avery throws a fastball in the low 90's and a split finger, which is better suited for the pen anyways. Camilo Vazquez is a 24-year old Cuban lefty with a nice minor league K rate (8.18) but he simply doesn't have the command to be a starter.

Logan Ondrusek (6-8 RHP) is another guy to move to the pen. He began last season as a reliever and for some reason or another the Reds moved him to rotation where he struggled. Rafael Gonzalez also fits in the category of failed starter. His stuff was considered just a tick below Homer Bailey's coming out of high school but he has battled weight problems and control issues. A move to the pen wouldn't hurt.

New Fever
03-20-2008, 02:10 PM
The Reds #1 prospect next year will be the guy they take with the 7th pick in the draft. On the last BA podcast, they talked about how this year's draft will have about 8 prospects in consideration for the Top 10 prospects in baseball. I know all of them won't be ranked in the Top 10 but they will be ranked prettty high. If someone like (Tim Beckham, Justin Smoak, Brian Matusz or Yonder Alonso) falls to the Reds he will be #1 on the Reds list next year.

goldengreek33
03-20-2008, 02:43 PM
I like Stubbs to break out big this year after he showed some signs of promise towards the end of last year. He choked up on the bat, giving him better bat control and it showed- only 2 K's in his first 42 AB's after the switch and hit .366 with 4 HR in 24 games. He's incredibly gifted, and even as a Red Sox fan, I'd love to see what he's capable of.

krm1580
03-20-2008, 03:24 PM
Who is most likely to be a premier prospect?
Drew Stubbs - He has a very as high an upside as pretty much anyone in the organization and seemed to be figuring things out at the end of last season

Most likely to flop who is currently rated pretty highly?
Kyle Lotzkar - I hope this is not the case but his pitching motion scares me and I just see him as an arm injury waiting to happen.

And who will seem to come from nowhere to explode on the radar?
Josh Ravin - Mid 90 heat that touched 98-99, with good movement, above average curveball and a very clean repeatable delivery. If his control problems get resolved, he moves way up this year.

Kc61
03-20-2008, 05:57 PM
For me, this minor league season is about two things:

1. At AAA, it's about Bruce and, if there, Bailey getting ready to be big time major league players. They need to do well.

2. At the lower levels, it is about Drew Stubbs. The Reds obviously see Bruce as a right fielder. Even if Corey Patterson does well, the Reds need a future centerfielder. Stubbs was drafted for that role. His performance in 2008 will tell us a lot.

icehole3
03-21-2008, 07:01 AM
Brandon Waring I feel will put up Adam Dunn type numbers in Dayton.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Animations/dancin.gif

pahster
03-21-2008, 11:10 AM
Brandon Waring I feel will put up Adam Dunn type numbers in Dayton.

http://www.sternfannetwork.com/forum/images/smilies/Animations/dancin.gif

Waring would just about have to double his isolated discipline for that to happen.

Redman15
03-21-2008, 11:29 AM
I think Valaika,Turner and Heisey will continue their solid play and once again put up decent numbers. Phipps is still my sleeper.

M2
03-21-2008, 12:54 PM
I'd love to see one of the eastern Europeans take a big step - Cech or Ruzic.

mth123
03-22-2008, 08:53 AM
I'm on record of having placed higher value on Carlos Fisher and Adam Rosales than most of the experts (so much so that I don't even consider Rosales a sleeper). I also think that Ben Jukich has a shot to establish himself as a back-end starter prospect. Let me add a really, really deep sleeper to that list.

Jake Long is a catcher who was drafted late in the 2006 draft. His ABs have been limted, but he went .333/.378/.405 for the GCL Reds in 90 PA in 2006. In 2007, he went .275/.385/.422 at Billings in 129 PA.

I'm optimistic that Long will do well at Dayton in 2008. Of course, neither he nor Mesoraco will help until 2010 at the very earliest. Long will be 22 on April 17th and may need to move a little more quickly.

gedred69
03-22-2008, 02:03 PM
I'd love to see one of the eastern Europeans take a big step - Cech or Ruzic.

What happened to Cech? His #'s were great out of the gate in the GCL, then seems he stopped playing. Was he injured?

princeton
03-22-2008, 02:59 PM
What happened to Cech? His #'s were great out of the gate in the GCL, then seems he stopped playing. Was he injured?

soccer players take the hot months off

He's Mr. December, though

Chip R
03-22-2008, 03:43 PM
I'd love to see one of the eastern Europeans take a big step - Cech or Ruzic.


Commie lover.

Superdude
03-22-2008, 04:25 PM
Carlos Fisher. He was dominant early in the year until his arm reportedly got tired. Moving to the pen should help him avoid those dead arm stretches, allow him to scrap his changeup, and probably add some velocity. I think he'll mow down minor league hitters this season and maybe even be knocking on the door in Cincy by the end of the year. He and Roenicke could eventually be a great back of the bullpen.

M2
03-22-2008, 05:45 PM
Commie lover.

Da komrade. The is the Cincinnati Reds we're talking about.

Plus, I really do think eastern Europe is a potential goldmine of talent. It would be nice to see the Reds get ahead of the curve.

OnBaseMachine
03-22-2008, 06:11 PM
IIRC the Reds also signed an outfielder from Germany last year in addition to Petr Cech from Czech Republic and Mariekson Gregorius from the Netherlands. Yep, just found it. 19-year old outfielder Donald Lutz from Germany. He's listed at 6'4" and 210 pounds in the Reds media guide.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/press_releases/press_release.jsp?ymd=20070808&content_id=2137366&vkey=pr_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

The Reds have also signed a couple pitchers and a catcher from Italy in the past few months.

GoReds33
03-22-2008, 10:04 PM
The following players I see stepping up their game this year:
Michael McKennon-
McKennon, who played for rookie league Billings last year, is already old by low minor league standards. He turns 23 on opening day, so he really needs to take charge this year. Last year he played second fiddle to Brandon Waring at Billings. He managed to hit .286/.331/.502. He needs to take off, and make it to AA before the year is over.

Tzu-Kai Chiu-
Chiu put up very good numbers at GCL Sarasota last year. He managed an ERA of 3.42, but that's decieving because he had a 2.81 ERA in his last ten apperances. Chiu could shoot through a couple levels this year.

Sean Watson-
Watson put up extremly good numbers at Dayton last year, but faltered when he went to Sarasota. If he can get adjusted to the leagues better this year, it wouldn't suprise me if he is starting in AAA by September. His 1.88 ERA at Dayton may have been a fluke, but he is known to adjust slowly, as last year he put up an 8.59 ERA after he was promoted to Dayton.

jmcclain19
03-22-2008, 10:15 PM
Hmmm..here is what I'm hoping for.

I think Todd Frazier is going to go all Adam Dunn/Jay Bruce this year and take a few levels by storm. And they still won't know where to play him.

I could definitely see Waring and/or Soto opening some eyes as well.

Mesoraco will also remind everyone this summer why he was a 1st round pick last year.

And Jose Castro interests me as the extreme deep sleeper- he's a switch hitter who probably should just stick to the left side, but he's got the glove to be a major league SS. I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere but he really caught on the last few months with the Reds.

And how sweet would it be to see Travis Wood not only stick at Chattanooga but crawl back up those prospect charts.

I think Stubbs is still a mirage surrounded by mirrors and covered in smoke and a season at AA is going to reveal all. It's not injuries or choking up or any of the above mentioned excuses - he's just a poor excuse for a 1st round pick that the Reds wasted.

My top 5 prospects in no particular order for 09 would be Bailey (who won't get enough MLB IP this year to lose his prospect status), Frazier, Soto, Mesoraco, & Lotzkar.

OnBaseMachine
03-22-2008, 10:43 PM
It wouldn't surprise me if the Reds start Watson in the bullpen in Chattanooga in order to accelerate his ETA to the majors.

dougdirt
03-22-2008, 10:57 PM
Hmmm..here is what I'm hoping for.

I think Todd Frazier is going to go all Adam Dunn/Jay Bruce this year and take a few levels by storm. And they still won't know where to play him.

I could definitely see Waring and/or Soto opening some eyes as well.

Mesoraco will also remind everyone this summer why he was a 1st round pick last year.

And Jose Castro interests me as the extreme deep sleeper- he's a switch hitter who probably should just stick to the left side, but he's got the glove to be a major league SS. I haven't heard him mentioned anywhere but he really caught on the last few months with the Reds.

And how sweet would it be to see Travis Wood not only stick at Chattanooga but crawl back up those prospect charts.

I think Stubbs is still a mirage surrounded by mirrors and covered in smoke and a season at AA is going to reveal all. It's not injuries or choking up or any of the above mentioned excuses - he's just a poor excuse for a 1st round pick that the Reds wasted.

My top 5 prospects in no particular order for 09 would be Bailey (who won't get enough MLB IP this year to lose his prospect status), Frazier, Soto, Mesoraco, & Lotzkar.

You don't think Bailey will get 4.2 MLB innings this year? Thats all he needs to no longer be eligible.

As for Stubbs.... well, I think he is going to make some people really turn heads this year and in a good way. I am with you on Soto..... if he can play anywhere. There are a lot of SS/3B between Dayton and Sarasota that are fighting for time with Waring, Frazier, Francisco and Cozart who will likely tandem somehow to make the left side of infields in the two A-ball levels.

jmcclain19
03-23-2008, 03:51 AM
You don't think Bailey will get 4.2 MLB innings this year? Thats all he needs to no longer be eligible.

As for Stubbs.... well, I think he is going to make some people really turn heads this year and in a good way. I am with you on Soto..... if he can play anywhere. There are a lot of SS/3B between Dayton and Sarasota that are fighting for time with Waring, Frazier, Francisco and Cozart who will likely tandem somehow to make the left side of infields in the two A-ball levels.

I wouldn't have guessed it was that few for Bailey but I didn't really look it up.

I want to like Cozart but he reminds me too much Janish - great glove without any stick. Janish still could make something of himself because of his excellent batting eye. That also represents the slim chance that Stubbs has - that he'll bat .240 with a .340OBP with an excellent glove and be tolerable. However with Dusty batting .240 as the CF won't cut it no matter what your OBP is.

klw
03-23-2008, 12:36 PM
I think we could see Daryl Thompson continue his recovery and get on the prospect screen this season. He had a good year last year and should also get a confidence and recognition bump from his success this spring in a tiny tiny sample.

mary
03-23-2008, 10:46 PM
I feel Adam Rosales is the player to watch.

dougdirt
03-23-2008, 11:20 PM
I feel Adam Rosales is the player to watch.

I am not sure he would qualify.... he was the Reds Minor League Hitter of the Year last year. I don't think he needs to really step up as much as he does just stay healthy and play like he does.

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2008, 01:58 AM
Another guy I see stepping up this year is Terrell Young. He was the Reds 10th round pick in 2004 out of a HS in Mississippi. He stuff is downright nasty at times - he features a mid 90's fastball and a plus breaking ball at times but his control has been a thorn in his side. In his minor league career he has allowed only 60 hits in 82.1 innings with 84 strikeouts (9.21 K/9) but 57 walks. He's 22 years old now and is expected to be the closer this year potentially in Sarasota of the FSL, which is a nice league to pitch in to have a breakout season. JaxRed mentioned he looked great closing out a game in one of the minor league games a few days ago. If he can learn to harness his stuff then watch for him in the near future.