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View Full Version : Interesting...Homer to start tomorrow vs Blue Jays



Matt700wlw
03-23-2008, 06:33 PM
RHP Homer Bailey will start tomorrow night’s game vs the Blue Jays.

RHP Edinson Volquez will start Tuesday at Phi.

reds44
03-23-2008, 06:34 PM
Tomorrow is supposed to be Fogg's day.

That's very interesting.

They wouldn't go with all 3 young guys at the back of the rotation would they?

Highlifeman21
03-23-2008, 06:41 PM
There's absolutely no reason Homer Bailey should come North on the 25 man roster when ST breaks.

He's, at best, the 6th best option at this point.

Definitely needs more time at AAA.

mth123
03-23-2008, 06:43 PM
There's absolutely no reason Homer Bailey should come North on the 25 man roster when ST breaks.

He's, at best, the 6th best option at this point.

Definitely needs more time at AAA.

Probably same as last time. Homer takes a while to get warmed-up so they let him start instead of come out of the pen.

Superdude
03-23-2008, 06:43 PM
It's on FSN isn't it? I can't complain about that. Watching Josh Fogg in a spring training game sounds really not entertaining at all.

Matt700wlw
03-23-2008, 06:44 PM
It's on FSN isn't it? I can't complain about that. Watching Josh Fogg in a spring training game sounds really not entertaining at all.

Yes it is..and yes it does

Spitball
03-23-2008, 06:45 PM
It may have something to do with Cueto's performance today. There may be a window of opportunity for Bailey after all.


Sunday, March 23, 2008
Uh-oh Cueto

Johnny Cueto hit a little bump in the road.

He allowed five runs on three hits in two-thirds of inning. He simply could not command any of his pitches. He walked five, including pitcher Matt Garza on four pitches.

He gave up a double to Akinori Iwamura to start the game. He walked Carl Crawford on five pitches. Carlos Pena hit one out to left-center. Cueto then got a pair of groundouts. But he walked the nerxt two hitters. Joel Guzman followed with a two-run double. Cueto then walked Garza. When Iwamura walked, Dusty Baker came out and got Cueto.

41 pitches/18 strikes.

Kc61
03-23-2008, 06:45 PM
There's absolutely no reason Homer Bailey should come North on the 25 man roster when ST breaks.

He's, at best, the 6th best option at this point.

Definitely needs more time at AAA.

I have a reason. Maybe he's better than the alternatives.

You know, if handled properly, maybe the best thing is for the Reds to go with three young starters. Keep them on a short leash. Devote this season to getting them some experience.

As long as they aren't overused, I don't see the harm.

I'd rather see Cueto, Volquez and Bailey than Affeldt, Belisle, and Fogg in the three to five slots. (I would have rather seen Bedard,
Haren, or Blanton, but that's another thread.)

reds44
03-23-2008, 06:48 PM
It may have something to do with Cueto's performance today. There may be a window of opportunity for Bailey after all.
If Cueto loses a spot from 1 poor outing out of 5, then the Reds are dumber than I thought.

Even with today's awful start, his numbers are still better then Homer's and Belisle's.

Spitball
03-23-2008, 06:53 PM
If Cueto loses a spot from 1 poor outing out of 5, then the Reds are dumber than I thought.

Even with today's awful start, his numbers are still better then Homer's and Belisle's.

I totally agree. I was just throwing today's line out there for discussion. Absolutely no pitcher, veteran or youngster, has his best stuff every time he goes out there and Cueto had one of those days today. He simply didn't have his command this time out.

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2008, 06:55 PM
Found this post on Trent's blog:


Finally found something–Over the first 15 days of April last year, Cueto walked roughly 21% of the batters he faced. In 2006 that time period with all his walks that I referenced earlier was the last 15 days of July, when he walked roughly 22% of the batters he faced.
http://firstinning.com/players/johnny-cueto-a/?trend=bb_pa
There’s the site I used, go down to longitudinal trends and click BB/BF.
It really looks like this happens once a year, it’s characterized by a rising walk rate in the starts before it happens, then a dramatic rise, then a decrease back to right before the dramatic rise, and then he gets it back to his normal levels.

Looks like Cueto goes through a two start stretch like this every season. Looks like dead arm possibly.

dougdirt
03-23-2008, 06:57 PM
Its likely just because Bailey doesn't fare so well out of the bullpen because like previously stated, he takes a long time to warm up. The Reds still want to evaluate him though, so it makes sense for him to start.

WMR
03-23-2008, 06:57 PM
I have a reason. Maybe he's better than the alternatives.

You know, if handled properly, maybe the best thing is for the Reds to go with three young starters. Keep them on a short leash. Devote this season to getting them some experience.

As long as they aren't overused, I don't see the harm.

I'd rather see Cueto, Volquez and Bailey than Affeldt, Belisle, and Fogg in the three to five slots. (I would have rather seen Bedard,
Haren, or Blanton, but that's another thread.)

It would be a horrible decision to burn up a pre-arb year of Homer's as well as possibly make him a Super Two candidate if he'll be an ineffective starter on a sub-.500 Reds team.

Joseph
03-23-2008, 07:04 PM
Cueto didn't exactly shine last time out either, lets not make like this is a one outing anomaly.

Spitball
03-23-2008, 07:21 PM
Cueto didn't exactly shine last time out either, lets not make like this is a one outing anomaly.

4 2 2 2 3 4

That line certainly shouldn't cause much concern.

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2008, 07:21 PM
Cueto didn't exactly shine last time out either, lets not make like this is a one outing anomaly.

It wasn't a bad outing either. He allowed two runs on two walks + two bloop singles on pitches near the dirt in the first inning but then retired 11 of the final 12 hitters he faced. That was also against arguably the best offense is baseball too.

Joseph
03-23-2008, 07:28 PM
No, but he did have control issues for the first couple innings.

I like him don't get me wrong, but I just didn't want this to seem like he's only struggled in one outing while all the rest were spotless.

cincyinco
03-23-2008, 07:31 PM
So, I propose this theoretical scenario:

What if Homer has been so bad because he also has experienced "dead arm", recovers and starts firing on all cylinders? Are people going to say he's "still not ready"? Perhaps he has already been going through what many are saying Cueto is now experiencing. Dead Arm.

I like Homer as a darkhorse. Glad he's still in camp right now. Look forward to seeing if he can rise to the occasion.

dougdirt
03-23-2008, 07:39 PM
So, I propose this theoretical scenario:

What if Homer has been so bad because he also has experienced "dead arm", recovers and starts firing on all cylinders? Are people going to say he's "still not ready"? Perhaps he has already been going through what many are saying Cueto is now experiencing. Dead Arm.

I like Homer as a darkhorse. Glad he's still in camp right now. Look forward to seeing if he can rise to the occasion.

Blasphemy! :cool:

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2008, 07:45 PM
The difference between Bailey and Cueto, is Bailey has a history of command issues whereas Cueto hasn't. Cueto's command problems today were out of the ordinary for him with the exception of a two start stretch he seems to go through every year. It could be coincidence or it could be a dead arm stage, no one knows but him. Bailey OTOH has had problems with walks both in the majors and minors last season and in spring training this year. I'm not knocking him, I'm still a Homer believer; I think he'll go to Louisville and figure it out this season and become that stud pitcher he's projected to be. I just don't think he's ready right now.

jojo
03-23-2008, 07:52 PM
Found this post on Trent's blog:



Looks like Cueto goes through a two start stretch like this every season. Looks like dead arm possibly.

:all_cohol

Highlifeman21
03-23-2008, 08:44 PM
I have a reason. Maybe he's better than the alternatives.

You know, if handled properly, maybe the best thing is for the Reds to go with three young starters. Keep them on a short leash. Devote this season to getting them some experience.

As long as they aren't overused, I don't see the harm.

I'd rather see Cueto, Volquez and Bailey than Affeldt, Belisle, and Fogg in the three to five slots. (I would have rather seen Bedard,
Haren, or Blanton, but that's another thread.)

Given the alternatives (Belisle, Fogg), it's possible Bailey could perform better, but it's not probable. If it's a question of Fogg vs. Bailey, why have Bailey learn (and most likely continue to struggle) at the MLB, when he alone won't propel us to the playoffs. All you're doing there is wasting his service time, while possibly exposing him to continue to get his brains beat in at the MLB level.

If it's a question of Belisle vs. Bailey, you have to go with the arm that can consistently find the strikezone, and doesn't walk many guys. Right now, that arm ain't Bailey. Again, why waste Bailey's service time when he won't push us into the playoffs?

There's no argument that Bailey certainly has way more upside/potential than Fogg, and possibly has more upside/potential than Belisle, but until Bailey begins to realize any of his upside/potential AAA is the best place for him.

Reds1
03-23-2008, 08:56 PM
Cueto didn't exactly shine last time out either, lets not make like this is a one outing anomaly.

Actually he was pretty awesome. They had two bloop hits in the 1st or he would have been perfect again, but hey you have to be able to get out of the 1st and he's so young Dusty would be a moron not to at least consider the possibility that Cueto might falter. We were all (including me) ready to pencil him in not only the top 5, but at 3, but he is young. I hope it's just a one outing thing, but if he struggles next one this will get interesting. Probably just a dead arm early and he struggled. I sure think he's a better option, but I only know he's young and those guys usually don't come in and dominate like he has.

pedro
03-23-2008, 10:31 PM
Could Homer be being showcased?

Highlifeman21
03-23-2008, 10:57 PM
Could Homer be being showcased?

Don't tease me.

edabbs44
03-23-2008, 11:11 PM
Could Homer be being showcased?

Definite possibility.

If he is, I really hope it is for a true talent and not someone like Blanton whose value is inflated more because of his contract status than his talent level.

flyer85
03-23-2008, 11:16 PM
Definite possibility.

If he is, I really hope it is for a true talent and not someone like Blanton whose value is inflated more because of his contract status than his talent level.IMHO, they have more pressing needs than starting pitching.

edabbs44
03-23-2008, 11:19 PM
IMHO, they have more pressing needs than starting pitching.

Agreed, but what could you see them trading for? CF? Can't see it, as Bruce will fill in if Patterson flops.

SS? Probably not SS as Gonzo still has 2 years left on his contract.

C? Better be a stud.

Reliever? Kill me now.

I guess catcher is the only place I could see them making a move.

DoogMinAmo
03-23-2008, 11:24 PM
Bailey for Salty?

I would want something more, but would Texas oblige?

membengal
03-23-2008, 11:39 PM
No they would not.

Jpup
03-24-2008, 12:14 AM
What was I saying about Cueto and his command last week? I've been the only one beating that drum, but he doesn't look like he's ready to start 30+ games in the Majors to me. FTR, Bailey doesn't either.

It looks like:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Fogg
Belisle

That will probably be the rotation.

Jpup
03-24-2008, 12:20 AM
No they would not.

why not? Gerald Laird is going to start for Texas and they have Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden as catchers of the future. The Rangers need pitching bad. They have a surplus of catchers and first basemen. I don't see much room for Salty in Texas right now. Jason Botts has tore it up in Arizona and has played a lot of first. Kevin Mench is also playing some first base.

I think Jon Daniels would trade Salty for Bailey every day of the week.

Spitball
03-24-2008, 12:38 AM
I think Jon Daniels would trade Salty for Bailey every day of the week.

I don't think so. I was talking to a "recent" Ranger employee Friday about Volquez. He told me the organizational powers absolutely feel their ballpark (and a few other factors) is no place to develop a young arm.

reds44
03-24-2008, 12:45 AM
What was I saying about Cueto and his command last week? I've been the only one beating that drum, but he doesn't look like he's ready to start 30+ games in the Majors to me. FTR, Bailey doesn't either.

It looks like:

Harang
Arroyo
Volquez
Fogg
Belisle

That will probably be the rotation.
Except Belisle hasn't pitched in a game in over a week, and even with Cueto's bad start today he is still outpitching Belisle for the spring.

So because Cueto has one bad start he loses his rotation spot? Dusty didn't sound too concerned about Cueto either.

Jpup
03-24-2008, 12:46 AM
Except Belisle hasn't pitched in a game in over a week, and even with Cueto's bad start today he is still outpitching Belisle for the spring.

So because Cueto has one bad start he loses his rotation spot? Dusty didn't sound too concerned about Cueto either.

2, if we are counting. The Reds won't need a 5th until the second week so that gives them time to decide on it anyway. It also has nothing to do with 1 bad start or 2. I just don't think he is ready to pitch every 5 days for the Reds. He has plenty of time. Don't rush it.

reds44
03-24-2008, 12:48 AM
2, if we are counting. The Reds won't need a 5th until the second week so that gives them time to decide on it anyway.
His start against Detroit wasn't a bad start. He had a 2.08 ERA coming into today.

Jpup
03-24-2008, 12:49 AM
His start against Detroit wasn't a bad start.

we all have our opinion. We disagree. That's fine. Like I said above, I just don't think he's ready yet. I would rather him go to Louisville and dominate that level before being called up.

Aronchis
03-24-2008, 01:39 AM
Considering Bailey hasn't pitched well in spring training and may not pitch consistantly at his best to May, that is hardly a good time to showcase.

He needs reps to build up his legs. Pretty easy why he is getting another few innings bofore he goes down.

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 10:14 AM
If Cueto loses a spot from 1 poor outing out of 5, then the Reds are dumber than I thought.

Even with today's awful start, his numbers are still better then Homer's and Belisle's.

That was a terrible outing though. So, 20% of the time Cueto can't get out of the 1st inning in spring training? That's not good.

Falls City Beer
03-24-2008, 10:32 AM
I'd say the worst place to showcase Homer Bailey is the majors.

traderumor
03-24-2008, 11:14 AM
That was a terrible outing though. So, 20% of the time Cueto can't get out of the 1st inning in spring training? That's not good.What a great illustration of fact abuse.

Reds1
03-24-2008, 11:35 AM
Considering Bailey hasn't pitched well in spring training and may not pitch consistantly at his best to May, that is hardly a good time to showcase.

He needs reps to build up his legs. Pretty easy why he is getting another few innings bofore he goes down.


Seems like I heard or read a comment from Baker that he starts slow so I'd say if Baily pitches well for a 2nd straight game tonight he might have a shot at the rotation. I don't know this. I'm just guessing it's a possibility.

OldXOhio
03-24-2008, 11:51 AM
Cueto didn't exactly shine last time out either, lets not make like this is a one outing anomaly.

if you're referring to the DET game, I'd hardly call that a sub-par performance, particularly against that lineup. That was one difficult one inning - only thing I take from that start is the way he responded the next 3 IP.

jojo
03-24-2008, 12:25 PM
I understand grade inflation (to a point it's tolerable as long as an arm like Maloney doesn't suddenly "get" a 90 mph fastball) but if a young arm isn't even allowed to just suck once in a while without mad scrambles for explanations, then this is going to be a very,very long year for some fans.

lollipopcurve
03-24-2008, 12:25 PM
Bailey has more to learn facing big league hitters than minor leaguers. At this point in time, his education is more important than the results.

lollipopcurve
03-24-2008, 12:27 PM
but if a young arm isn't even allowed to just suck once in a while without mad scrambles for explanations, then this is going to be a very,very long year for some fans.

Agreed. Cueto, Volquez and Bailey are all going to have growing pains. Just because talent is major-league ready does not mean that the education is complete.

Highlifeman21
03-24-2008, 12:30 PM
Bailey for Salty?

I would want something more, but would Texas oblige?

Laird is probably the best we could hope from the Rangers for Homer straight up.

If we want Salty, it'll cost us a lot more than Bailey.

fearofpopvol1
03-24-2008, 12:47 PM
Yeah, no way the Reds could get Salty for Bailey. I don't think even Bailey (especially the recent Bailey) and Votto gets Salty. They gave up a lot to get him.

I don't think this start is to showcase believe. I believe it's a courtesy start since he was likely favored to make the rotation before ST started.

NJReds
03-24-2008, 12:59 PM
How good can "Salty" be if he can't capture the starting job from Laird?

Jpup
03-24-2008, 01:05 PM
How good can "Salty" be if he can't capture the starting job from Laird?

He's not that good and Washington likes Laird a lot. The Rangers got more than Salty in the deal too.

fearofpopvol1
03-24-2008, 01:59 PM
How good can "Salty" be if he can't capture the starting job from Laird?

1B

edabbs44
03-24-2008, 02:03 PM
If we want Salty, it'll cost us a lot more than Bailey.

I think Bailey has become seriously undervalued on this board.

He's only going to be 22 this May. He is extremely young.

RedlegJake
03-24-2008, 02:26 PM
I think Bailey has become seriously undervalued on this board.

He's only going to be 22 this May. He is extremely young.

Agreed. And that's why the Reds shouldn't and maybe haven't traded him. He's currently ridiculously undervalued. He is like Volquez -it has ben suggested that Volquez could have been had for less than Hamilton. I disagree completely. Texas simply wouldn't have traded him for less because they understood what they had even if other GMs did not. They weren't going to trade him for less than full value, even if others didn't see that value. The Reds should be the same way with Bailey. If someone wants him then they pay full value in talent back or he doesn't go anywhere. The Reds keep him, develop him, give him time and wait for his value to rise again, as it will.

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 02:52 PM
What a great illustration of fact abuse.

Ha...I'm not denying that it was, but it's also important to notice that 5 starts isn't anything (This was my point)

4 good starts and 1 bad start isn't a greatly positive nor negative trend. People are overplaying the 4 good starts, so I overplayed the 1 bad start.

It's the same thing.

BRM
03-24-2008, 04:04 PM
From Dusty, per Fay's blog:


Homer Bailey getting the start, instead of Josh Fogg, tonight is get another look at Bailey. "It's a big start for him," Baker said. "Not do or die, but it could sure help his cause. Starting in the A game means more to Homer, Fogg has a longer track record."

membengal
03-24-2008, 05:05 PM
So, they are still considering going Harany, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey? Interesting.

reds44
03-24-2008, 06:48 PM
So, they are still considering going Harany, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey? Interesting.
That would be really interesting. Not sure if I want that to happen, but it would be interesting.

Matt700wlw
03-24-2008, 06:55 PM
Harany,

Is he new? :D

mth123
03-24-2008, 08:51 PM
Bailey has more to learn facing big league hitters than minor leaguers. At this point in time, his education is more important than the results.

But his health trumps his education or his results. He needs to log 160 Innings without being overextended in 2008. He can't have too many short outings where the pen takes over. He hasn't pitched much more than a Scott Sullivan load in the minors. He needs a full season starting and going deep enough in games to get his innings in while being protected from too big a jump. That probably can't happen in a major league rotation that also features another 22 year old and another young guy trying too establish himself. Having too many of those guys in there at once puts them all at risk. I'm concerned about Volquez and Cueto already being too much to protect at the same time.

jojo
03-24-2008, 09:31 PM
But his health trumps his education or his results. He needs to log 160 Innings without being overextended in 2008. He can't have too many short outings where the pen takes over. He hasn't pitched much more than a Scott Sullivan load in the minors. He needs a full season starting and going deep enough in games to get his innings in while being protected from too big a jump. That probably can't happen in a major league rotation that also features another 22 year old and another young guy trying too establish himself. Having too many of those guys in there at once puts them all at risk. I'm concerned about Volquez and Cueto already being too much to protect at the same time.

It's kind of a moot argument. He's Louisville bound. his bags were packed before tonight but tonight's poor outing should quiet even the diehards.

Matt700wlw
03-24-2008, 09:33 PM
He may get sent down tomorrow of even after the game after that...I guess there really isn't a reason to prolong it, I doubt he'd get the start Saturday if Fogg is the #5

Aronchis
03-24-2008, 09:49 PM
Considering Bailey hasn't pitched well in spring training and may not pitch consistantly at his best to May, that is hardly a good time to showcase.

He needs reps to build up his legs. Pretty easy why he is getting another few innings before he goes down.

I drilled it. He needs to build up strength in his legs before he is ready to go for 6 plus.

He had the makings of a easy start tonight, but he mechanics became derailed with what I figure was caused by fatigue.

Oh well, that means Fogg is probably in the rotation for a period of time. :)

RANDY IN INDY
03-25-2008, 09:23 AM
Great observation, Aronchis. I agree totally. Just posted this in another thread:

Bailey has no command of the strikezone and I think it may be more mechanical than anything else. It also looks to me like he has lost velocity. He is really going to have to work on some things. One small thing that I noticed was that quite often, he was landing on his heel with his stride foot as opposed to the ball of his foot. Chris Welsh was saying that he needs to cut down on his stride, ala Aaron Harang, but I'm not sure that is the answer for Bailey. Looks to me like his arm and his stride are not real cohesive right now. His arm is lagging behind his stride and that can cause some real control problems, as well as an arm injury down the road if he doesn't correct it. Makes you wonder if his legs are "under him," with the way that he seems to really struggle with his control after a couple of innings. Anyway,looks to me like he has enough to work on for a season ticket to AAA.
__________________

OnBaseMachine
03-25-2008, 10:59 AM
'If Bailey could eliminate walks'
Too many of his pitches continue to miss home plate
BY JOHN ERARDI | JERARDI@ENQUIRER.COM

Coming into Monday night's game, Reds manager Dusty Baker talked as though Homer Bailey still might be alive for a spot in the starting rotation.

Baker didn't actually use those words, but it sounded that way.

The door seemed open. Baker wanted to see Bailey throw more strikes. Bailey didn't do it.

His strikes were hard to hit, but he didn't throw enough of them.

His line: 41/3 innings, two hits, one run (unearned), six walks, two strikeouts and a wild pitch. He got two double plays to help him out of it. But he just walked too many batters.

He had good command the first four innings, but then seemed to lose concentration and was overthrowing.

What happened?

"It's probably because it was the first time I've gone on three days' rest since 'A' ball," he said. "I got a little tired, and my arm started to come up a little bit."

Baker said he used Bailey on three days' rest for the same reason he had used Bronson Arroyo and Josh Fogg on three days' rest. He's trying to get the order set.

"If he (Bailey) makes the club, that's the turn that would come rolling out," Baker said.

He wants to give Bailey a chance.

Fogg would appear to be the odds-on favorite for the spot that could have been Bailey's if he'd had a great spring. Bailey's stuff gets guys out, but not when they can take a pitch because it's not in the strike zone.

"Those one or two batters where I kind of lost focus and ended up walking them, if I cut those out, maybe it's not so bad," Bailey said.

Fogg is going to keep the Reds in games, even though he often doesn't go deeply in them.

A good case could be made to let Bailey work things out in Louisville, but it's also enticing to see his upside and hope the sneaky fastball and the changeup that froze Vernon Wells for strike three is worth watching in the big leagues. But with two youngsters already going into the rotation - Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez - do you want a third one, the iffiest one at this point, in there with them?

"He just lost command of the strike zone (toward the end of his stint), " Baker said. "His pitch count got up a little bit. ... He's looking better, if he could eliminate those walks. He has the stuff. ... Six walks - in the big leagues, boy, that'll haunt you."

Bailey has things to work on, like throwing more strikes and tightening up his breaking ball.

When asked in his pregame meeting with the writers what Bailey needed to show him, Baker said Bailey had to "throw strikes - quality strikes."

"His main problem the last couple years has been high pitch counts in a short period of time," Baker said.

"I'm sure he'll bring it down - he has to bring it down - or he won't be around very long, and that's going to tax the bullpen."

It wasn't that Bailey didn't throw some good pitches, because he did. He threw a lot of them. But the balls cascaded, and in the end, they cost him.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080325/SPT04/803250355/

traderumor
03-25-2008, 11:07 AM
I'm glad he had a normal start last night instead of pitching over his head. His performances should make their decision pretty easy.