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gonelong
03-24-2008, 12:17 AM
Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.)
3) I will be **AT** the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus".

I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws.

GL

dougdirt
03-24-2008, 12:17 AM
84 wins

RedsManRick
03-24-2008, 12:19 AM
79 wins

reds44
03-24-2008, 12:22 AM
81 wins

RFS62
03-24-2008, 12:23 AM
86 Wins

Jpup
03-24-2008, 12:26 AM
I was very optimistic last year for some reason and I am less so this year so I will say 83 and third place in the central behind the Cubs and Brewers unfortunately.

wheels
03-24-2008, 12:28 AM
74 wins.

The pitching's better, but overall the roster is a shambles.

OnBaseMachine
03-24-2008, 12:31 AM
I'm feeling optimistic about this team just like I do every year, but this time it just feels different. We have two solid starting pitchers at the top of the rotation and two kids with dynamite arms. This is going to be the best rotation we've had since probably the early 90's or longer IMO. The offense is good enough to score around 800 runs; The loss of Hamilton hurt but the improvement of EdE, Votto, and eventually Bruce will offset the loss of Hamilton. The bullpen is still a big question mark but Francisco Cordero helps tremendously. With Cordero in the fold, another solid season from Burton and Weathers, the development of Bill Bray and the arrival of Josh Roenicke, the bullpen improves two months into the season after Stanton is cut loose. Where does all that put us?

86 wins.

RedlegJake
03-24-2008, 12:32 AM
85 wins

LoganBuck
03-24-2008, 12:58 AM
70

pedro
03-24-2008, 01:08 AM
83 Wins. I'm playing that number until they do it.

Last year that didn't work out so well.

Despite that, I remain optimistic and unlike recent seasons I honestly do think this team could really surprise us and win even more. Not that I don't realize that would most likely take good years from all the rookies as well as health and consistent production from everyone else, including the bullpen. It would also require more than we can likely expect from the current core of catchers.

Admittedly, I know that's an amount of good fortune that doesn't often grace any team during a single season and that with just average luck and a few key injuries this team could really struggle.

Either way, I do think the Reds have a lot more talent than they did in any of the last 5 seasons, so at least there are reasons to remain interested as fan, and hey, with the season starting next week that's not so bad.

SirFelixCat
03-24-2008, 01:17 AM
82 Wins.

I really want to go more, but too many 'ifs' and I think I'm being optimistic as is. Man, this is seriously the most excited for a season that I've been in a few years. The young kids should be a LOT of fun to watch this year!

HumnHilghtFreel
03-24-2008, 01:19 AM
Although this year I'm more excited with the young guys around, I'm less optimistic about win total... I'll say 80 Wins

MWM
03-24-2008, 01:23 AM
73-89

Blitz Dorsey
03-24-2008, 01:26 AM
85 wins.

Deepred05
03-24-2008, 01:37 AM
88 wins, based on the addition of Cordero.

Patrick Bateman
03-24-2008, 01:39 AM
79

KronoRed
03-24-2008, 01:40 AM
76-86.

Still about the same team that lost 90 last year.

Tornon
03-24-2008, 01:41 AM
82

Phhhl
03-24-2008, 01:43 AM
90

Reds Fanatic
03-24-2008, 01:45 AM
83 wins

Caveat Emperor
03-24-2008, 01:49 AM
74 Wins.

Unproven starting pitching, middling middle relief, no bench, and the possibility existing of multiple months with Corey Patterson manning center field all make me cautious about the upcoming season.

RBA
03-24-2008, 01:52 AM
88 wins based on the subtraction of Narron.

jmcclain19
03-24-2008, 02:08 AM
80 wins. Dusty holds them back from breaking .500.

WMR
03-24-2008, 02:11 AM
80 wins. Dusty holds them back from breaking .500.

I with ya. 80 sounds pretty good to me. Perhaps a tad optimistic.

MartyFan
03-24-2008, 02:29 AM
82 wins

BoydsOfSummer
03-24-2008, 04:10 AM
81-81

But like Pedro said, I think this team has real potential to surprise depending on those young starters.

pedro
03-24-2008, 04:35 AM
74 Wins.

Unproven starting pitching, middling middle relief, no bench, and the possibility existing of multiple months with Corey Patterson manning center field all make me cautious about the upcoming season.

Even if all the questionable stuff you mentioned goes well, if Harang or Dunn were to get hurt or Phillips and Edwin don't do well, not to mention Griffey who you just can't count on at this point, they could have a lot of problems.

OTOH, look at the roster of the 1990 team and tell me they weren't an improbable story.

MrCinatit
03-24-2008, 05:35 AM
78

Topcat
03-24-2008, 05:46 AM
89 wins and 73 loses is the rerecord of the new flag ship future Red's. Simple reason. rejuvenated pitching and new found hope that spreads threw out the whole dug out. Votto's 2nd half season Homer's 2nd half season after call up contribution and most of all the unknown wild card addition yet unknown that comes aboard.

edabbs44
03-24-2008, 06:43 AM
77 wins

kbrake
03-24-2008, 07:21 AM
84

mth123
03-24-2008, 07:47 AM
Volquez steps up and gives the team a legit number 2. Harang and Arroyo provide more of the same. Cueto struggles from time to time but still ok at number 4 and provides reason to believe he'll be better in 2009. Number 5 is a revolving door, but overall the starting pitching is above average. The offense gets a boost from Votto. Patterson is better than expected. The Middle IF suffers a drop-off from 2007, but Keppinger plays enough to provide a boost. Dunn hits 50 bombs and is more mobile in the field. Griffey declines a bit and looks even worse on defense. Jay Bruce is blocked and spends much of the year in AAA. EdE settles in as an average 3B. The catching situation is horrible. The Bullpen prevents this team from getting to the play-offs. Stanton proves last year wasn't an anomoly. Weathers declines sharply. Burton and Bray move from prospects to suspects. Coffey rebounds a bit. Roenicke and Viola arrive too late. Cordero is good, but too often leads disappear prior to him getting in the game. They finish above .500 and feel like a team on the rise.

84 Wins.

RedFanAlways1966
03-24-2008, 08:03 AM
75 wins. Hope I am wrong. :D

rotnoid
03-24-2008, 08:11 AM
This rotation is improved vastly over what we've been seeing, IMO. The young guys keep them in it until September, but may not have the experience or stamina to get over the hump. Still, I think they win more than lose.

Put me down for 83 wins.

cincrazy
03-24-2008, 08:20 AM
82 wins.

The Reds struggle out of the gate with the platoon of Hopper and Patterson not working in center, and with the likes of Stanton getting banged around in the bullpen. The Reds come to their senses, promote Jay Bruce and Josh Roenicke amongst others, Volquez and Cueto become more consistent during the second half of the year, and the Reds use a blazing second half of the season to finish over .500 and give a good glimpse of what's to come in 2009.

GoReds
03-24-2008, 08:38 AM
85 wins. Sets them up nicely for a move in 2009.

Caveat Emperor
03-24-2008, 08:47 AM
Even if all the questionable stuff you mentioned goes well, if Harang or Dunn were to get hurt or Phillips and Edwin don't do well, not to mention Griffey who you just can't count on at this point, they could have a lot of problems.

The Reds are cooked if Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, or Griffey miss games. But, in fairness, there aren't a lot of mid-market teams that have the depth to replace top-talent that goes on the shelf.

The other point you raise about Phillips and Edwin is also worth repeating -- if those two don't find a way to hit LHP better, its going to be a long season.

Cyclone792
03-24-2008, 08:50 AM
83 wins.

First time I've projected a better than .500 record since 2000.

cumberlandreds
03-24-2008, 08:55 AM
78 The Reds will have basically three rookies in the rotation for most of the season and that will keep the win total under the 500 mark. But they along with Bruce and Votto will give the Reds a boost into a very good 2009 season.

mbgrayson
03-24-2008, 09:06 AM
84 wins

dabvu2498
03-24-2008, 09:22 AM
77 wins

RANDY IN INDY
03-24-2008, 09:27 AM
84 wins.

Heath
03-24-2008, 09:29 AM
77 wins

Is this before or after Siena smoked the 'Dores?? ;)


Put me down for 85. It may win the division.

Redhook
03-24-2008, 09:36 AM
85 wins. First time I've been optimistic about the team since 2000.

dabvu2498
03-24-2008, 09:39 AM
Is this before or after Siena smoked the 'Dores?? ;)



Haha.

How your Zips doin?

flyer85
03-24-2008, 09:50 AM
77 wins as I see a slightly downgraded offense and slightly better pitching.

Raisor
03-24-2008, 09:53 AM
It's been kewl going back and reading all the predictions over the last 6 years.

During that time, the Reds have averaged 75 wins a season. I'm thinking that they're about 5 wins better then the average Reds team.

Sooooo...

I'm prediciting 80 win season. Heck, Ill bump it to 81, just because:

81-81

lollipopcurve
03-24-2008, 10:01 AM
I do not have a good feeling at the moment.

79-83

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 10:09 AM
Prediction: 78 wins

what the crap is 'pthg'???????

edit: nevermind, I'm guessing it's Pythagorean....wouldn't that be "Pyth" or something then? :p

Roy Tucker
03-24-2008, 10:15 AM
The Reds are way past due to surprise. The past bad karma gets washed away, they catch fire out of the gate, and surprise everyone.

92 wins.

Raisor
03-24-2008, 10:22 AM
Prediction: 78 wins

what the crap is 'pthg'???????



http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=342


http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/funny-pictures-pythagora-cat-box.jpg

CaiGuy
03-24-2008, 10:36 AM
Put me down for 85.

It won't quite get them into the playoffs, but there should be a lot of improvement, setting them up for the next couple of years.

TRF
03-24-2008, 10:37 AM
89 wins based in large part to a now weakened Brewers rotation featuring 5 RH starters. The Cards look to really stink, the Astros look abysmal and the Pirates, oh my, the Pirates. That leaves the Cubs as the main threat in the central. And they have pitching issues as well with Dempster rejoining the rotation, and the closer kind of up for grabs at this point.

89 wins.

Johnny Footstool
03-24-2008, 10:50 AM
91 wins.

redsfan30
03-24-2008, 10:53 AM
84 wins.

pahster
03-24-2008, 10:53 AM
78 wins. Assuming Dunn is extended and barring any catastrophic injuries, I expect the Reds to be quite good in 2009.

nate
03-24-2008, 10:55 AM
81.

sonny
03-24-2008, 10:56 AM
put me down for 76 wins. But next year will be in the high 80's.

Puffy
03-24-2008, 11:26 AM
78-84.

Joseph
03-24-2008, 11:30 AM
84 Wins and a Central Division crown in the worst division in baseball...or the most competitive depending on how you look at it.

TheBurn
03-24-2008, 12:30 PM
85-77... good enough to win the Central. :cool:

Highlifeman21
03-24-2008, 12:36 PM
78-84.

Mark me down for one of these.

At best we're a .500 team, and I don't think we're worse than last year, so while I wanted to go with 76 or 77, I'll give this team an optimistic benefit of the doubt and go with 78 wins.

This team still has too many weaknesses to compete, let alone win.

LincolnparkRed
03-24-2008, 12:43 PM
79-83 our interleague schedule is pretty tough, and that can't help overcome the improvements I think have been made to the pitching staff.

Screwball
03-24-2008, 12:44 PM
80-82.

membengal
03-24-2008, 12:54 PM
So much unknown, so much could go right or wrong.

Boringly, will split the difference at 81-81, and would not be suprised to see it +/- five from there. Anywhere from 76-86 wins.

New Fever
03-24-2008, 12:54 PM
88 wins

MississippiRed
03-24-2008, 01:35 PM
78 wins

Guacarock
03-24-2008, 01:46 PM
78 sounds about right.

BuckeyeRedleg
03-24-2008, 01:59 PM
83-79

redsrule2500
03-24-2008, 02:21 PM
Ok, time for Gonelong's 7th annual Reds Win prediction thread. Similar to years past my requests are minimal:

1. Give a number of Ws you project.
2. Make the prediction as honestly as you can. (Imagine you were betting your house one your estimate being correct.)
3) I will be **AT** the game again this year. (thanks again, to my brother!) Once I return from the game I'll compute the average and post it as the "Redszone ORG consensus".

I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Here are the historical prediction threads, if anyone wants to check on their past performance:
2007 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pesimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildy Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

My prediction for 2008 prediction of Reds Wins is 80 Ws.

GL

Another semi-interesting note: Reds Zone has been averaging about 11,000 new topics per year since the second year of your prediction thread. Take a look at those links! http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/mesg/emoticons7/26.gif And then this year is 66,000 even...wow!

Strikes Out Looking
03-24-2008, 02:25 PM
86 wins due to a better bullpen, better starters, lousy division and no Narron. Wild Card is Dusty--and if they don't win 86, I say fire him.

Reds/Flyers Fan
03-24-2008, 02:26 PM
90 wins.

NL Central champs

boognish
03-24-2008, 03:02 PM
I'd like to defer until the fringes of the roster are settled (and more importantly whether Votto starts at 1B), but where is the fun in that?

76 wins. This bullpen could be horrific again with the wrong decisions/usage patterns, the offense--after park adjustment--will be below average even with a boost from EE, and improvement from the starting pitching won't be quite enough. There are too many bad pitchers on the staff (Stanton, Fogg, Affeldt) getting innings and Cueto and Volquez can't be expected to pick up all of those guys' slack.

I agree with the earlier sentiment: if Dunn or Harang miss any time whatsoever the wheels could come off.

*BaseClogger*
03-24-2008, 03:08 PM
78-84

could be about 84 wins with a more optimal lineup and roster configuartion... But I guess it could be 72 wins if Dusty didn't know how to manage the clubhouse ;)...

vaticanplum
03-24-2008, 03:35 PM
79 wins.

Mario-Rijo
03-24-2008, 05:08 PM
83 wins and that's being cautiously optimistic for me this season.

WVRedsFan
03-24-2008, 05:16 PM
86 Wins

RichRed
03-24-2008, 05:16 PM
76 wins.

I'd be curious to know which posters have been the best prognosticators since gonelong started doing this.

(P.S. I don't think I'm near the top.)

bucksfan
03-24-2008, 05:18 PM
I am going with 85. More of an upside to that # this year, and less of a fear for the downside IMO.

oneupper
03-24-2008, 05:36 PM
80 Wins.

I was going to say something about Dusty...but I prefered to just lower my number.

Will M
03-24-2008, 06:45 PM
85-77

Scrap Irony
03-24-2008, 07:05 PM
82-80

The starting pitching's much better, but the pen is still weak. Offensively, they're not great, but they're not bad either.

Meh, in other words.

Boss-Hog
03-24-2008, 07:41 PM
82 wins

M2
03-24-2008, 07:42 PM
The Reds still have a lot of moving parts with just one week left in ST. I might not agree with this in seven days, but ...

80-82

deltachi8
03-24-2008, 07:43 PM
77 Wins. I started higher then remembered the reds will still have (most likely) Josh Fogg in the rotation and OJT for Cueto, EV and possibly Bailey.

I think the bullpen is better but not drastically so.

The team will be better than last and I think could be a seriousl playoff contender in 09.

Falls City Beer
03-24-2008, 07:49 PM
Everyone's taken my number. :confused: I don't know: 81

Red in Chicago
03-24-2008, 07:53 PM
78 despite a very ugly month of june

Edskin
03-24-2008, 10:22 PM
85 wins.

I sort of "believe" in this team for some odd reason. I'm sure I'll be kicking myself in early June when we're 11.5 games back :)

Ron Madden
03-25-2008, 03:19 AM
I'll say the Reds will win 78 games in 2008.

I'll be rooting for a bunch more than that.

:)

marcshoe
03-25-2008, 05:56 PM
I'm feeling optomistic today, so I'll join the 85 club.

*BaseClogger*
03-26-2008, 12:26 AM
So far...

Sun Deck W/L
n=43
Avg.=84.95
SD=4.41
Min=75 (IowaRed)
Med.=85
Max=95 (757690)

note: I excluded predictions that were an attenpt to lower the group average instead of an actual W/L forecast (Grande Donkey, Degenerate39, Newman4).

tORG W/L
n=86
Avg.=81.65
SD=4.32
Min=70 (LoganBuck)
Med.=82
Max=92 (Roy Tucker)

Generally, the Sun Deck is more optimistic about the 2008 Reds than tORG.

Highlifeman21
03-26-2008, 12:29 AM
So far...

Sun Deck W/L
n=43
Avg.=84.95
SD=4.41
Min=75 (IowaRed)
Med.=85
Max=95 (757690)

note: I excluded predictions that were an attenpt to lower the group average instead of an actual W/L forecast (Grande Donkey, Degenerate39, Newman4).

tORG W/L
n=86
Avg.=81.65
SD=4.32
Min=70 (LoganBuck)
Med.=82
Max=92 (Roy Tucker)

Generally, the Sun Deck is more optimistic about the 2008 Reds than tORG.

It brings a loving tear to my eye to see standard deviation in the ORG.:luvu::cry:

Dan
03-26-2008, 10:26 AM
Well, I usually base my prediction on...something (I was on the money last season, btw) so I'm waiting until late Saturday or Sunday to make my prediction.

George Anderson
03-26-2008, 10:43 AM
87 wins

Dan
03-28-2008, 04:41 PM
I'm going with 86.

I think they're better than an 84 win club, but not as good as 88.

note this is subject to change before the first pitch of the season

wheels
03-28-2008, 04:43 PM
Can I revise my prediction now that Stanton's gone?

Playadlc
03-28-2008, 05:17 PM
84-78.

dabvu2498
03-28-2008, 05:21 PM
Can I revise my prediction now that Stanton's gone?

Wanting to decrease the number of wins you predicted, eh?

bucksfan2
03-28-2008, 05:29 PM
I am optimistic going into this year. But I am optimistic going into every baseball season. I think this team is a much better built team than that of last season. I think the ceiling for this team is 90 wins. A LOT would have to go right to reach that mark including but not limited to Bruce tearing it up, Bailey coming up at one point and pitching well, Encarnacion hits well, Votto impresses, and both Cueto and Volquez pitch to their potential. They could also win around 70 games if the first half of the season is poor and WK goes into fire sale mode. I lean more towards the positive side so I perdict

83 wins.

Az Red
03-29-2008, 12:43 PM
90-72

but, please, don't look at any of my former predictions.

Razor Shines
03-29-2008, 01:19 PM
89-74. A one game playoff for the division.

NC Reds
03-29-2008, 01:33 PM
85 wins.

My optimism is slightly tempered. I really thought this was the year when the youth movement would take hold. I think by mid-season the infusion of new talent (Bruce, Roenicke, et al) will be in full effect and the Reds will be better for it.

Chip R
03-29-2008, 02:52 PM
75 wins

Spring~Fields
03-29-2008, 03:17 PM
74-88 wins/losses ;) After Griffey and Dunn, too many offensive slackers for my blood.

Hoosier Red
03-29-2008, 04:51 PM
86-76
This is the best i've felt about the starting rotation in a long long time.

Reds Nd2
03-29-2008, 10:14 PM
87 wins.

westofyou
03-30-2008, 03:11 PM
85

Crosley68
03-30-2008, 06:54 PM
88-76

mth123
03-30-2008, 06:55 PM
88-76

That is 164 games.

Tom Servo
03-30-2008, 08:36 PM
83 wins

klw
03-30-2008, 08:59 PM
90 wins

top6
03-31-2008, 12:27 AM
71-91.

Aronchis
03-31-2008, 12:31 AM
87 wins and most coming post-ASB.

UKFlounder
03-31-2008, 07:19 AM
77-85

paintmered
03-31-2008, 07:35 AM
82. And there will be much rejoicing.

dfs
03-31-2008, 10:14 AM
78 wins.

Wish it was more, but 78 it is.

REDREAD
03-31-2008, 12:11 PM
I'm going to predict an 80-82 season.. and I feel this is quite optimistic after last season.

Cordero will help a lot. I'm hoping another bullpen arm steps forward as well.

The young starting pitchers will help. Patterson's in center will help all the pitching.

I hope Gonzo's fielding is better this year, but I am pessemistic about it.

My main worry is that the offense will struggle. Jr absolutely has to stay healthy. Phillips needs another big year. Edwin needs to step it up. There's a lot of pressure on a few guys to score runs, due to weak bats at Cf, C, and SS and questionable offense at 3b.

Stormy
03-31-2008, 06:59 PM
79-83, despite having 86+ win talent if properly utilized. That would be my guess. If this comes to fruition, I'll feel bad for Krivsky, as he actually had this team pointed in the right direction.

membengal
09-20-2008, 09:14 PM
Bump.

My 81-81 dream is dead, those of you in the 75-77 area have a real shot at this.

72-82 after today's win.

klw
09-20-2008, 10:09 PM
90 wins
I meant 90 including spring training games. Yeah that's the ticket. If Norris Hopper hadn't gone down they would have gotten to 90 wins, yeah that's the ticket.

Spring~Fields
09-21-2008, 11:00 AM
74-88 wins/losses ;) After Griffey and Dunn, too many offensive slackers for my blood.

I need Baker to put in his more traditional lineup of Patterson leading off and the shortstop batting second along with some more experienced veterans that command his respect to make it close. Jocketty compelling Baker to deviate from his norms with all this youth and inexperience is causing a win spike.

C'mon Dusty here's your lineup
Patterson CF .238 .341 .579 Speed Dusty, think speed Dusty!!!
Janish SS .280 .254 .534
Cabrera RF .311 .442 .753 Age/Respect
A.Phillips 2B .282 .409 .691 flawed cleanup batter
Encarncion 3B .345 .475 .820 OBP inconsistent highs/lows
Votto 1B .361 .482 .843 OBP
Hairston LF .390 .482 .873 OBP
Bako C .283 .320 .603 experienced handler of pitchers and ex-Cub
Pitcher

Highlifeman21
09-21-2008, 12:18 PM
Finish strong, get to 78!

cumberlandreds
09-21-2008, 12:45 PM
Finish strong, get to 78!

That's mine too! Win six of eight and we got it right.

OnBaseMachine
09-21-2008, 12:48 PM
I was a little off on my 86 wins prediction.

MrCinatit
09-21-2008, 12:53 PM
78

Looks like I was slightly too hopeful. Mathematically, they have not been eliminated from 78 wins...but it is very doubtful.

cincrazy
09-21-2008, 01:40 PM
82 wins.

The Reds struggle out of the gate with the platoon of Hopper and Patterson not working in center, and with the likes of Stanton getting banged around in the bullpen. The Reds come to their senses, promote Jay Bruce and Josh Roenicke amongst others, Volquez and Cueto become more consistent during the second half of the year, and the Reds use a blazing second half of the season to finish over .500 and give a good glimpse of what's to come in 2009.

Well, they DID get a little bit hotter in September, so I was kinda/sorta right, right? ;)

wheels
09-21-2008, 08:09 PM
74 wins.

The pitching's better, but overall the roster is a shambles.

I came pretty close.

Two of seven and I'll look like a genius.

Again.

edabbs44
09-21-2008, 08:26 PM
77 wins

A 5-2 week and I'll be a repeat champ.

Some threads paint me as negative, others show me as pretty friggin spot on realistic.

RedsManRick
09-21-2008, 08:37 PM
By my math, the RedsZone predictions look like this:

N: 108
mean: 81.87
stdev: 4.63
median: 82
mode:85
max: 92
min: 70

Looks like ORG was a bit optimistic. We're collectively going to end up high by a full standard deviation.

vaticanplum
09-21-2008, 08:45 PM
79 wins.

Every year I hope I'm being conservative, and every year I overshoot.

Next year, I'm predicting 65 wins and having done with it.

mbgrayson
09-28-2008, 06:05 PM
And the winning number is.....
74

wheels
09-28-2008, 06:09 PM
And the winning number is.....
74

And who picked 74?

Oh yeah, Me.

Never felt so crappy about being right in a long time.

*BaseClogger*
09-28-2008, 06:21 PM
2 wins better than last year, we are moving in the right direction! :thumbup:

RichRed
09-28-2008, 06:30 PM
And who picked 74?

Oh yeah, Me.

Never felt so crappy about being right in a long time.

Caveat Emperor also picked 74. I just missed with 76. Darn these rose-colored glasses of mine.

Red in Chicago
09-28-2008, 06:31 PM
78 despite a very ugly month of june

i missed it by "thatmuch";)

Spring~Fields
09-28-2008, 06:41 PM
And who picked 74?

Oh yeah, Me.

Never felt so crappy about being right in a long time.

I think that a few of us would be amiss if we did not give a lot of the credit and pay homage where credit is due, I mean they might have won 8 more of those one and two run losses in April and May if it had not been for their contributions.

http://re3.yt-thm-a01.yimg.com/image/25/m3/2379334337

:notworthy

http://re3.yt-thm-a03.yimg.com/image/25/f11/244638113

:notworthy

:thumbdown

RedsManRick
09-28-2008, 06:54 PM
Coming in to today's game, Corey Patterson added 18.7 runs BELOW replacement level, nearly 2 wins worth. That is impressive.

For what it's worth, Patterson is among the highest rated defensive CF for 2008. It's possible that his defense will make his total package worth greater than replacement. But it's gonna be tough. Signing Patterson was the rough equivalent of donating $2.6M to charity and not taking a deduction while denying an opportunity for somebody else to contribute to the team.

Only SS Tony Pena of Kansas City, with a VORP of -24.9 did more damage to his team's ability to score runs. Congratulations, Corey.

RedFanAlways1966
09-28-2008, 09:22 PM
To think that I once again looked foolish because of the darned REDS....

I was foolish enough to think after last Tuesday's game that my prediction of 75 wins was sure to be 1 or 2 games TOO LOW. The REDS had won 4 of their last 5 games and were 8-2 over their last ten games. I got fooled into thinking they were going to win at least 76 games. SMACK (ouch)... reality hit hard during the last 5 games.

I'll never learn.

flyer85
09-28-2008, 09:27 PM
I wouldn't be surprised if Corey is around in 2009

wheels
09-28-2008, 09:30 PM
You know what?

These last few losses will probably do more for the franchise than if they'd won a few.

The whole "Dead Cat Bounce" scenario has been averted. Someone aptly described the effects as "confirmation bias".

Looks like we got that whole thing beat. Let's hope they can now get down to the real nitty gritty without being so convoluted as to think that the status quo will get it done.

MWM
09-28-2008, 09:56 PM
I picked 73. Last year was the only year I wasn't within 2 wins in a while.

I think I might be optimistic next year and go with 75 wins. :)

gonelong
09-29-2008, 08:56 AM
Next time someone harps on the negativity of this board, send them here:

2008 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66389) - RZ Ws: 81.60 Actual: 74 PTHG 72 - Pretty Optimistic
2007 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=55913) - RZ Ws: 81.40 Actual: 72 PTHG: 75 - Pretty Optimistic
2006 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=44503) - RZ Ws: 76.66 Actual: 80 PTHG: 76 - Slightly Pessimistic
2005 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33108) - RZ Ws: 84.67 Actual: 73 PTHG: 75 - Wildly Optimistic
2004 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=21619) - RZ Ws: 76.82 Actual: 76 PTHG: 67 - Right On
2003 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9414) - RZ Ws: 87.88 Actual: 69 PTHG: 63 - Wildly Optimistic
2002 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4202) - RZ Ws: 79.71 Actual: 78 PTHG: 75 - Slightly Optimistic

:D

GL

Johnny Footstool
09-29-2008, 10:29 AM
Only SS Tony Pena of Kansas City, with a VORP of -24.9 did more damage to his team's ability to score runs. Congratulations, Corey.

My neighbors went to a Royals game a couple of weeks ago and came home with two Tony Pena Jr. bobblehead dolls. They gave one to my son for his second birthday. He actually likes it. I don't have the heart to tell him the ugly truth about Tony Pena Jr.

lollipopcurve
09-29-2008, 11:00 AM
Coming in to today's game, Corey Patterson added 18.7 runs BELOW replacement level, nearly 2 wins worth. That is impressive.

I thought watching David Ross hit in 2007 was bad. But Patterson this year was probably worse -- the helicopter swing, the clean-and-jerk footwork on the follow-through, the neverending routine bounceouts to the right side.... I have a feeling it's going to be a long time before we see a season of offensive futility to match it. And I started out a Patterson supporter....

The offensive gains the team can make simply by getting a big RH bat (Holliday or Ordonez?) to replace Patterson are massive, I think. Stick that stick in the OF alongside Bruce and perhaps Dickerson and the offense starts to look good......