PDA

View Full Version : J. Fay writes Dunn "deserves" LT Deal (UGH!!)....



RedFan4Life
03-24-2008, 10:27 AM
Oh Really John?

John subtitles his column "OF has shown he deserves long-term deal". Then John goes on to make his case for signing Dunn long term. What are John's reasons?

#1 John writes that Dunn's OPS is annually among the best in baseball. He then goes on to write "He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira. "

This is the kind of classic name dropping stuff which has helped to fuel the Adam Dunn overratedness in Cincinnati all along. On a whole it's laughable to put Adam Dunn in the same conversation as Albert Pujols, Cabrera or Teixeira. It misrepresents Dunn's value/contributions as a baseball player to make these types of comparisons implying that Dunn's value in some way approaches the value of these other legitimately great "young" players.

#2 John writes "Those who value the more traditional numbers - batting average and strikeouts - dislike Dunn. " Again, John implies that those who value more "traditional" numbers focus primarily on batting average and strikeouts. This is absolutely wrong. Traditional numbers/analysis also took into account bases on balls, extra base hits, fielding, speed...etc... all the things that the new one stop shop saber formulas do but just didn't wrap them all up in extra formulas. "Traditionalists" wouldn't like Dunn's low BA and excessive strikeouts but equally important they wouldn't like is overall awful baseball fundamentals/smarts, awful fielding, lack of intensity/urgency in his game, situational struggles, horrible hitting with RISP, horrible bat control and relatively high left fielder salary on a team with a relatively low payroll.

#3 John writes "I also think the most overlooked stat in baseball is games played." You think so John? You have 25 players on the team. You also have the ability to bring players up from the minors or sign free agents. Which serves the team better to get peak performances from all players 130/140 games a year or have guys out there playing tired, hurt and/or just to accumulate personal stat lines to improve bargaining position for salary negotiations. Check the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 1990 Reds roster John and see the "games played" numbers for that group of everyday players (only one player appeared in greater than 150 games).

John goes on to write: (and this is good stuff)

"But my argument for keeping Dunn goes beyond numbers. He came to the Reds almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001. He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis."

"Dunn's a stand-up guy. Good game or bad game, he's there to talk. He's funny, self-deprecating - probably to a fault - and unafraid to speak his mind."

"He's a regular guy - if a regular guy can be 6 feet 6 and 275 pounds, hit the ball 500 feet and make $13 million a year."

"But, most important, he's become a leader. He'll call out guys. The karaoke event he organized last week was one of the best things the Reds have done for new players in a long time."

Those John are the extra "intangible" attributes of Dunn which you would base your decsion to sign him on? Those are the extra attributes which you would use to justify making Dunn your highest paid player for the next 5 years and to "build" your team around?

John says Dunn came to the Reds "almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001". John might be a "nice guy". Dunn might be a "nice guy". Reds have been a sub .500 baseball team for 7 years. You connect the dots.

justincredible
03-24-2008, 10:45 AM
Yep, Adam Dunn is the reason the Reds have been terrible for 7 years. It has nothing to do with the pitching staffs.

corbinky
03-24-2008, 11:15 AM
Why not just cut Dunn and let Hopper play center and left?

Caveman Techie
03-24-2008, 11:32 AM
The Reds scored 783 runs last year, out of that Dunn had 106 RBI's. The guy was directly responsible for almost 14% of the runs the scored by the entire team last year. That is a huge amount of offensive production to just let walk out the door.

mroby85
03-24-2008, 11:41 AM
i see your point redsfanforlife, even though everyone else is trying to take your comments to the extreme instead of taking them as what they are. Adam Dunn is the best option on this roster right now, but not the best option for a LTC in my opinion.

CySeymour
03-24-2008, 11:42 AM
Dunn has far and away been the best offensive player on this team over the last 4 years, and I would love to see him stay in Cincinnati.

My only hesitation would be, considering his body type, at what point will his decline begin. My guess is keeping him past the age of 32 would be a stretch. So hopefully they can sign him to maybe a 4 year deal, and at worst a 5 year deal.

AmarilloRed
03-24-2008, 12:44 PM
The Reds should sign Adam Dunn to a contract extension.

Half of you just said, "Exactly."

The other half just threw down the paper in disgust.

One caveat here: The Reds should do so only if they can get the deal done for a reasonable amount of money. I know "reasonable amount" is a relative term when talking about baseball contracts, but Dunn is a reasonable guy. My guess is he'd sign for below market value to stay with the Reds.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080323/COL09/803230409/


I felt this was an important caveat that should be mentioned in Fay's article. Fay is only supporting it if the Reds can sign Dunn for a "reasonable" amount of money. I happen to think Fay is wrong on this, and Dunn would not sign a deal for below market money. What Fay thinks is reasonable, and what Dunn thinks is reasonable; are probably two entirely different things.

Gunner44
03-24-2008, 01:21 PM
Dunn is well worth it. Not only has he been the best offensive player over the last four years there is a good chance Griffey will not be here next year. If they both leave then our offense becomes about the worst in league. I also think that Dunn is starting to take on a leadership role that is great for guys like bruce and votto. Id offer him a deal of 5 year/80 million. A pay raise and long term security for Dunn and a huge bat at a resonable cost for the Reds.

Caveman Techie
03-24-2008, 01:42 PM
i see your point redsfanforlife, even though everyone else is trying to take your comments to the extreme

Actually he is the one taking his comments to the extreme, pinning the Reds losing for the last 7 years on Dunn is just a little bit extreme.

durl
03-24-2008, 02:11 PM
I've wavered over the past few years on Dunn. He strikes out WAY too often, IMO. Still, I can't help but see his HR/RBI totals as great offensive numbers despite his frequent Ks and lack of sac flies. Now, if we had some assurance that Hamilton would have continued to grow as a player and remain injury-free, I might have kept him and traded Dunn. It's just that Dunn has shown that he can consistently provide power numbers.

Casey
03-24-2008, 02:13 PM
I would have no problem at all with Dunn getting a long term deal. Yeah, the strikeouts are big, but so are the power numbers. He is still the best offensive weapon on the team.

TC81190
03-24-2008, 03:11 PM
OP, you created this thread on the wrong board.

And for the record, without Dunn, the Reds offense is done.

Chi-Town Red
03-24-2008, 03:16 PM
give the man his money....he has earned it!

BLEEDS
03-24-2008, 04:02 PM
IF we can't afford to pay $13M a year to a LF-er with that type of Production, then IMO we don't have any right to be fielding a team in the Major Leagues.

We can change our names to the Kansas City Reds - or the Cincinnati Marlins.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
03-24-2008, 05:16 PM
Here is my problem with Dunn. While he puts up good stats, he does not perform the role that Reds need him to perform. The big slugger that pitchers are afraid to pitch to.

That type of money buys you THE guy in your lineup, and Dunn just is not good at being THE guy. With men on base, and with RISP, Dunn is one of the worst in the league at getting a hit. He has a high OBP, but that is mostly through walks. He gets a hit with MOB and RISP around 17% of the time. Most middle lineup guys get a hit around 25% of the time with MOB and RISP. You don't want THE guy getting walks in those situations, you want them to get hits in order to drive the runs in. Walks are great for top of the lineup guys, but not middle.

Therefore, I say wait until the end of the year. Sign him long term if he is able to become better in those situations, or another Red develops as THE guy, (Phillips, EE, Bruce, Votto?) and hit Dunn second. Otherwise, that money needs to be spent on someone who can be THE guy for the Reds.

CySeymour
03-24-2008, 05:23 PM
Here is my problem with Dunn. While he puts up good stats, he does not perform the role that Reds need him to perform. The big slugger that pitchers are afraid to pitch to.


If they aren't afraid to pitch to him, then why does he pile up so many walks?

RedFan4Life
03-24-2008, 05:25 PM
That type of money buys you THE guy in your lineup, and Dunn just is not good at being THE guy. With men on base, and with RISP, Dunn is one of the worst in the league at getting a hit. He has a high OBP, but that is mostly through walks. He gets a hit with MOB and RISP around 17% of the time. Most middle lineup guys get a hit around 25% of the time with MOB and RISP. You don't want THE guy getting walks in those situations, you want them to get hits in order to drive the runs in. Walks are great for top of the lineup guys, but not middle.
.

You have articulated a big part of my problem with Dunn as well. A huge payroll team may be able/willing to spend 10+ million for a guy who needs to hit 6th or 7th in batting order and probably not even start against some unfavorable matchups but not the Reds.

As you noted his OBP is pumped up by middle of the order open base and 1/2 out walks which contribute relatively little (see tango chart tangotiger.net/RE9902.html). And his RISP struggles and low overall BA make him ill suited for 3/4/5 slot in batting order .

And then you have the fielding....

durl
03-24-2008, 05:32 PM
I can't help but think that a guy hitting 40 HR/100 RBI with a huge OBP/SLG %, low K's, along with incredible speed and ability in the outfield would cost WAY more than $13 million.

Dunn frustrates me, too. I just think he's a potent part of the Reds offense.

BLEEDS
03-24-2008, 05:40 PM
Here is my problem with Dunn. While he puts up good stats, he does not perform the role that Reds need him to perform. The big slugger that pitchers are afraid to pitch to.

That type of money buys you THE guy in your lineup, and Dunn just is not good at being THE guy. With men on base, and with RISP, Dunn is one of the worst in the league at getting a hit. He has a high OBP, but that is mostly through walks. He gets a hit with MOB and RISP around 17% of the time. Most middle lineup guys get a hit around 25% of the time with MOB and RISP. You don't want THE guy getting walks in those situations, you want them to get hits in order to drive the runs in. Walks are great for top of the lineup guys, but not middle.


SOoooo, is he getting more walks because pitchers are afraid to pitch to him, yes or no?

Just wondered if you found that the LEAST bit counterintuitive.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-24-2008, 05:56 PM
I can't help but think that a guy hitting 40 HR/100 RBI with a huge OBP/SLG %, low K's, along with incredible speed and ability in the outfield would cost WAY more than $13 million.

Dunn frustrates me, too. I just think he's a potent part of the Reds offense.

EXCELLENT Point. If we can't afford to pay $13M for Dunn, do you think we're going to pay $20M for someone who has ALL his strengths and none of his weaknesses?

It's also part of the GROSS mis-use of him in the Batting order that leads to his MOB/RISP "Non-Production". Batting him 5th, in front of a developing (read: youthful inexperience) EE and then AGon has more to do with him NOT getting any pitches to hit and getting those walks.

Bat him 3rd and put BP, Jay Bruce, and a SEASONED EE behind him, and see how many unintentional-intentional walks he gets. You'd suddenly see a VAST improvement in these stats IMO.

Batting him 5th is almost criminal. Stat-wise, he's batted just about the same number of PA's as he has in the 4 hole (~1000) and his CAREER BA is .22 points higher in the 4 spot than the 5th.

As it is, he still SOMEHOW manages 40 HR's and 100 RBI's and accounts for 15%+ of the ENTIRE offensive production of the team.

BTW/FWIW, his numbers in 2007 for MOB/RISP were .257 and .241.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
03-24-2008, 06:24 PM
SOoooo, is he getting more walks because pitchers are afraid to pitch to him, yes or no?

Just wondered if you found that the LEAST bit counterintuitive.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Scott Hatteberg gets a lot of walks. Is he being "pitched around" or is he just a patient hitter? It would be counterintuitive if there was not other explanation, but there are many.

I am sure that Dunn does get pitched around every now and then, but not like other sluggers. Pitcher know that if they get two strikes on him, he is toast. Major league BA avg with two strikes is .194, Dunn's is .152, and most of that is with a full count. After 0-2, Dunn is .126 and after 1-2 he is .134. That is just terrible, and one of the reasons he does not strike fear in the minds of pitchers, like he should.

Reds Fan Chris
03-24-2008, 06:30 PM
Sure he may strike out alot, but when he hits goodbye. Hes also an excellent outfielder. We really need to keep him.

BLEEDS
03-24-2008, 06:43 PM
Scott Hatteberg gets a lot of walks. Is he being "pitched around" or is he just a patient hitter? It would be counterintuitive if there was not other explanation, but there are many.

I am sure that Dunn does get pitched around every now and then, but not like other sluggers. Pitcher know that if they get two strikes on him, he is toast. Major league BA avg with two strikes is .194, Dunn's is .152, and most of that is with a full count. After 0-2, Dunn is .126 and after 1-2 he is .134. That is just terrible, and one of the reasons he does not strike fear in the minds of pitchers, like he should.

That might be the understatement of the year.

YOU said you wanted him to be THE guy that pitchers didn't want to pitch to. He draws 100 or so walks a year. You also say pitchers like to get 2 strikes on him because he's toast then.

SO, how does he get so many walks if pitchers are trying to get 2 strikes on him. I mean, the guy barely hits over .250, so why/how is he drawing 100 walks a year?

I say it's because they don't want to add to the 40 HR's or 100 RBI's he bops a year, and they'd rather face EE or Agon(or Castro) with men on base.

You just look at the stats, and base your assumptions on that, instead of trying to figure out HOW the stats got there in the first place.

Put him lower in the lineup, you'll see his BA and RISP/MOB stats go up. Instead, he's stuck in a lineup that the Manager thinks "IDEALLY" we would bat Brandon Phillips 3rd. Currently, he bats 4th, SO, when he doesn't get on base 70% of the time, you can walk Dunn and face rookies/2nd year guys or another free swinger in AGon.

If he was "truly" middle of the lineup, he'd be batting 3rd or 4th. Not 5th - unless he was in the Yanks or Sox lineup where the 6/7/8 hitters are actually Bona-Fide guys you wouldn't want to pitch to.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

gilpdawg
03-24-2008, 08:36 PM
Oh Really John?

John subtitles his column "OF has shown he deserves long-term deal". Then John goes on to make his case for signing Dunn long term. What are John's reasons?

#1 John writes that Dunn's OPS is annually among the best in baseball. He then goes on to write "He's 22nd in the category among active players. Only three players under age 30 are above him - No. 2 Albert Pujols, No. 14 Miguel Cabrera and No. 20 Mark Teixeira. "

This is the kind of classic name dropping stuff which has helped to fuel the Adam Dunn overratedness in Cincinnati all along. On a whole it's laughable to put Adam Dunn in the same conversation as Albert Pujols, Cabrera or Teixeira. It misrepresents Dunn's value/contributions as a baseball player to make these types of comparisons implying that Dunn's value in some way approaches the value of these other legitimately great "young" players.

#2 John writes "Those who value the more traditional numbers - batting average and strikeouts - dislike Dunn. " Again, John implies that those who value more "traditional" numbers focus primarily on batting average and strikeouts. This is absolutely wrong. Traditional numbers/analysis also took into account bases on balls, extra base hits, fielding, speed...etc... all the things that the new one stop shop saber formulas do but just didn't wrap them all up in extra formulas. "Traditionalists" wouldn't like Dunn's low BA and excessive strikeouts but equally important they wouldn't like is overall awful baseball fundamentals/smarts, awful fielding, lack of intensity/urgency in his game, situational struggles, horrible hitting with RISP, horrible bat control and relatively high left fielder salary on a team with a relatively low payroll.

#3 John writes "I also think the most overlooked stat in baseball is games played." You think so John? You have 25 players on the team. You also have the ability to bring players up from the minors or sign free agents. Which serves the team better to get peak performances from all players 130/140 games a year or have guys out there playing tired, hurt and/or just to accumulate personal stat lines to improve bargaining position for salary negotiations. Check the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 1990 Reds roster John and see the "games played" numbers for that group of everyday players (only one player appeared in greater than 150 games).

John goes on to write: (and this is good stuff)

"But my argument for keeping Dunn goes beyond numbers. He came to the Reds almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001. He's a guy who always has been liked by everyone who covers the team on a daily basis."

"Dunn's a stand-up guy. Good game or bad game, he's there to talk. He's funny, self-deprecating - probably to a fault - and unafraid to speak his mind."

"He's a regular guy - if a regular guy can be 6 feet 6 and 275 pounds, hit the ball 500 feet and make $13 million a year."

"But, most important, he's become a leader. He'll call out guys. The karaoke event he organized last week was one of the best things the Reds have done for new players in a long time."

Those John are the extra "intangible" attributes of Dunn which you would base your decsion to sign him on? Those are the extra attributes which you would use to justify making Dunn your highest paid player for the next 5 years and to "build" your team around?

John says Dunn came to the Reds "almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001". John might be a "nice guy". Dunn might be a "nice guy". Reds have been a sub .500 baseball team for 7 years. You connect the dots.

Welcome to the board Mr. Brennaman.

Rounding Third
03-24-2008, 10:12 PM
Sure he may strike out alot, but when he hits goodbye. Hes also an excellent outfielder. We really need to keep him.

Well he definitely isn't a good outfielder. He ranks just about dead last back there with Manny Ramirez.

The Reds have a guy that will consistantly put up 40 Home Runs, 100 RBI's, 100 Runs, 100BBs and a .380 OBP and a .900+ OPS.

It would be foolish not to sign him. :thumbup:

OUReds
03-25-2008, 03:59 AM
Scott Hatteberg gets a lot of walks. Is he being "pitched around" or is he just a patient hitter? It would be counterintuitive if there was not other explanation, but there are many.

I am sure that Dunn does get pitched around every now and then, but not like other sluggers. Pitcher know that if they get two strikes on him, he is toast. Major league BA avg with two strikes is .194, Dunn's is .152, and most of that is with a full count. After 0-2, Dunn is .126 and after 1-2 he is .134. That is just terrible, and one of the reasons he does not strike fear in the minds of pitchers, like he should.


Hatte is not really a fair comparison, he is one of the best in pitch recognition in all of baseball. I think it is fair to say that Adam is BOTH pitched around, AND takes a lot of pitches. Besides, the difference between .194 and .126 over the course of a season is about one extra hit a week. Between .194 and .152 it's about 3 per month. Significant? Yes, but Dunn maintained much of his power last year with two strikes as well, hitting 10 of his 40 home runs with 2 strikes.


By some statistical studies Dunn is patient to a fault, taking too many called third strikes.

http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/06/adam-dunns-plate-discipline.html

So indeed Adam Dunn, like every other hitter not named Bonds, Mays, or Williams, has flaws as a hitter.

Regardless of that, he remains a potent offensive force in the line-up entering his prime production years.

There remains a dangerous misconception that the Reds are a dominant offensive team. I swear I beat this drum every other post, but the Reds last year, once you adjust for ballpark effects, were essentialy an average offensive club. Take away Adam (2nd in baseball among qualified LFers in OPS) and it gets ugly fast.

Assuming Bruce is ticketed for right field to replace Griffey, who is there to replace Dunn? There are no hot LF prospects beating down the door in the Red's system, so anyone you bring in is going to represent an offensive downgrade that will cost either talent in a trade or nearly as much money in free agency.

Just pay the man. He's earned it, and he's worth it.

Rounding Third
03-25-2008, 09:44 AM
Imagine loosing Dunn and Griffey. There goes your 2 corner OF positions, your #3 and #5 hitters, and over 200RBI's and Runs scored.

Nasty_Boy
03-25-2008, 10:13 AM
Imagine loosing Dunn and Griffey. There goes your 2 corner OF positions, your #3 and #5 hitters, and over 200RBI's and Runs scored.


That's exactly what I was getting ready to post. Where do you people think the runs are going to come from? And while Dunn strikes out a lot, he still makes less outs than any everyday player on the team. Everybody gets so concerned with what Dunn doesn't do well that they forget that driving in 100 runs, scoring 100, walking 100 times, and hitting 40 HRs (a lot of which came in the 6 hole) isn't something that many players can do. And there is no doubt in my mind that Dunn would have better RBI numbers if he was moved up in the order and not behind BP the out machine.

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 10:46 AM
That's exactly what I was getting ready to post. Where do you people think the runs are going to come from? And while Dunn strikes out a lot, he still makes less outs than any everyday player on the team. Everybody gets so concerned with what Dunn doesn't do well that they forget that driving in 100 runs, scoring 100, walking 100 times, and hitting 40 HRs (a lot of which came in the 6 hole) isn't something that many players can do. And there is no doubt in my mind that Dunn would have better RBI numbers if he was moved up in the order and not behind BP the out machine.

Yeah, cause we know for sure that they would spend the $25-30M they are paying Junior and Dunn on new Pitchers and Position players in Free Agency...
(*Note: I am being sarcastic, the majority of Junior's salary has already been spent on raises for Harang/Arroyo/etc..., Dunns $13M is a freakin' bargain for the amount of production he's getting)

Most of the people who don't want Dunn around think Norris Hopper and Ryan Freel can more than make up for him - oh, and maybe Joey Votto (no thought to him then exposing a hole at First Base, AGAIN, and he'd only be about 10-15 HR's and 25 RBI's short for the foreseeable future). Same for Jay Bruce replacing Griffey, he's going to take JUST a Bit of time to get full replacement of 2007 KGJ, let alone approach the thought of replacing a pre 2000 Griffey.

Like I said, if the REDS cannot afford $13-15M for Adam Dunn, then they can't afford to compete and they should sell the team to someone who can spend the money. OH WAIT, THEY ALREADY DID!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
03-25-2008, 11:38 AM
Yep, Adam Dunn is the reason the Reds have been terrible for 7 years. It has nothing to do with the pitching staffs.

exactly.. soo why not use some of his money on a legit pitcher.. and get a dime a dozen outfielder to fill his role defensively??

the only player who is just about as bad defensively in left field is Manny.. and I would take him over dunn any day because at the plate he not only has power, but he is a pure hitter.. lifetime .315 BA.. he to me is worth the 18 -20 mil that dunn will likely command.. even for 3 or 4 years.. he is like 34 or 35.. and his next 4 years would still be better than dunns..

Newman4
03-25-2008, 11:39 AM
Dunn's strengths far outweigh his weaknesses. Don't get me wrong, he CAN improve, but 40HRs guys aren't just falling out of the sky. 13 million is a good deal for Dunn.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-25-2008, 11:46 AM
Yep, Adam Dunn is the reason the Reds have been terrible for 7 years. It has nothing to do with the pitching staffs.

exactly.. soo why not use some of his money on a legit pitcher.. and get a dime a dozen outfielder to fill his role defensively??

Manny ramirez isn't as bad as Dunn because after being in boston for a few years he learned how to use the wall to cut people down stretching hits into doubles.. dunn still doesn't know how to play ANY part of that wall.. and Manny hits a lifetime .315.. and wins.. sorry but he is worth the 18-20 mil on a small market nl team and Dunn isn't.. Manny is one of a few people in the league I would be ok with them paying that much money for him to play here.. onyl for a few years though because he is getting up there in age..

Ahhhorsepoo
03-25-2008, 11:55 AM
replacing his 106 rbis? he was number 20 in the league with that number last year..

we can all agree GABP is a hitters park..
and in discussions here or maybe they were actual writers doing research either way.. we have agreed GABP can add 4-7 homers onto totals and 8-11 rbi's or so..

52 players had 90 or more rbi's in the league last year..
25 players had 30 or more home runs last year..

sorry but 40 homers and 100 rbi's is not that amazing of a stat line anymore.. while it might still be in the top tier of "POWER" his .264 BA surely isnt in the top tier of hitting... sorry but I would take a person who plays good or better outfield, and hit 15-20 homers and drives in 75 runs over adam dunn any day esp is if saves me 12 million a year..

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 12:12 PM
sorry but 40 homers and 100 rbi's is not that amazing of a stat line anymore.. while it might still be in the top tier of "POWER" his .264 BA surely isnt in the top tier of hitting... sorry but I would take a person who plays good or better outfield, and hit 15-20 homers and drives in 75 runs over adam dunn any day esp is if saves me 12 million a year..

Please tell me where we can find a 20 HR/75 RBI LF-er that we can pick up for $1M ?!?!?

Your name suits my reaction to your arguments in this case.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

GoReds33
03-25-2008, 12:40 PM
Please tell me where we can find a 20 HR/75 RBI LF-er that we can pick up for $1M ?!?!?

Your name suits my reaction to your arguments in this case.

PEACE

-BLEEDSHe may be talking about Jay Bruce. Still, we need Bruce to take over after Griffey leaves, which will likely be this offseason. 13 million for Dunn isn't a bad deal. The guy gets on base, hits homers, and drives in runs. His defense has greatly improved. He should defenitly get a LTC.

OUReds
03-25-2008, 01:27 PM
I think he wants to slide Patterson over to LF.

.298 batting average in 2003, 25 HR and 72 RBIs in 2004, great fielding and speed. With Patterson and Hopper in the OF we'd be on our way to the playoffs for sure!

Ahhhorsepoo
03-25-2008, 01:40 PM
Please tell me where we can find a 20 HR/75 RBI LF-er that we can pick up for $1M ?!?!?

Your name suits my reaction to your arguments in this case.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I was referring to his new deal he would get on a LTC.. so the player would make between 6 and 8 mil per year.. btw your math sucks.. Dunn is going to make close to 13.5 mil this year.. soo that leaves 1.5 mil.. and even for 1 mil there are players who would get 15 homers and 70 rbis... and would be a drastic upgrades at LF.. thanks though..

Nasty_Boy
03-25-2008, 02:07 PM
I was referring to his new deal he would get on a LTC.. so the player would make between 6 and 8 mil per year.. btw your math sucks.. Dunn is going to make close to 13.5 mil this year.. soo that leaves 1.5 mil.. and even for 1 mil there are players who would get 15 homers and 70 rbis... and would be a drastic upgrades at LF.. thanks though..


Not a chance! Name one guy that's available that you have in mind. And name that pitcher that we could go buy that wants to spend his time in GABP. The Reds are doing it the right way by drafting and developing their pitching. But it takes more than pitching to win ballgames (especially in GABP) and there isn't anyone available at a "reduced" price that would provide the type of production they need to be a competitive offense.


BTW, Dunn has been pitched around twice today with runners in scoring position. He has walked twice on 8 pitches.

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 03:06 PM
Dunn is going to make close to 13.5 mil this year.. soo that leaves 1.5 mil.. and even for 1 mil there are players who would get 15 homers and 70 rbis... and would be a drastic upgrades at LF.. thanks though..

:laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh::laugh:

:all_cohol:all_cohol:all_cohol:all_cohol:all_cohol :all_cohol:all_cohol


:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

:ughmamoru:ughmamoru:ughmamoru:ughmamoru:ughmamoru :ughmamoru:ughmamoru

:dunn: :thumbup:

:denorfia: :thumbdown

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
03-25-2008, 03:34 PM
I was referring to his new deal he would get on a LTC.. so the player would make between 6 and 8 mil per year.. btw your math sucks.. Dunn is going to make close to 13.5 mil this year.. soo that leaves 1.5 mil.. and even for 1 mil there are players who would get 15 homers and 70 rbis... and would be a drastic upgrades at LF.. thanks though..

There aren't any players who have already has seasons in like that, since any regular OF will make at least $3M in this market, no matter what they produce. But I agree, there are many guys you could pick up off of waivers, or call up from the minors that could put up those numbers. Outfielders are cheap.

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 03:42 PM
There aren't any players who have already has seasons in like that, since any regular OF will make at least $3M in this market, no matter what they produce. But I agree, there are many guys you could pick up off of waivers, or call up from the minors that could put up those numbers. Outfielders are cheap.


Yeah sure. Then all you have to do is pick up a guy who can get you 25HR's and 40 RBI's (and 50 BBs's and 50 Runs scored) and get them BOTH to play the Same position, at the Same Time, and Dunn is TOTALLY Replaced!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Va Red Fan
03-25-2008, 04:01 PM
Dunn does deserve a long term deal that pays him well to be the cornerstone of our offense for the next several years. He is a great offensive player and one that has not gotten enough respect here in Cincy or league-wide.

757690
03-25-2008, 04:05 PM
Basically, Jay Bruce will be in the Reds outfield next year, either replacing Griffey or Dunn. I am sure the Reds will keep one of those two. I am also confident that Bruce will be just as productive as whoever he replaces.

AmarilloRed
03-25-2008, 04:11 PM
I have been on record for a long time as supporting a LTC for Dunn, especially now that Hamilton has been traded. Starting outfielders who can draw 90 walks, score 100 runs, hit 40 HRs, and drive in 90+ runs do not grow on trees. Any comparable starting outfielder would be making more than 13 million. I think if we can sign Dunn to a 4-6 year deal worth 13-16 million a year, then we have to do it. We simply do not have any comparable starting outfielder coming up from the minors, with the possible exception of Jay Bruce. I expect Bruce will be replacing Griffey in right field in 2009, anyway.

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 04:19 PM
Basically, Jay Bruce will be in the Reds outfield next year, either replacing Griffey or Dunn. I am sure the Reds will keep one of those two. I am also confident that Bruce will be just as productive as whoever he replaces.

I think Bruce has a CHANCE to be as productive as Junior, circa 2008, if KGJ has a down year. But Dunn? No way.

I expect Bruce has the potential to be a 30or40 HR/ 90or100+ RBI guy, but he's DEFINITELY not going to be there at age 21 in his first season in the Bigs.

He'll be lucky to put up better numbers than Hamilton did in 2006. IFF he gets over 20 HR's in his first year I'll be overly surprised. He'll also probably be hitting 2nd or 6th/7th, depending on how well Votto does this year. NO WAY will he approach Griffey or Dunn numbers in the HR/RBI departments, at least not immediately.

I'd expect Votto will be putting up 20-25/70-80 stats in 2009, depending upon where he's put in the lineup.

IF we can count on EE, BP and Votto to put up numbers near those, to go along with Dunn and Jay Bruce somewhere in the mix, we will have a MUCH improved offense.

However, subtract Dunn from that, and we are WAY under 2006 numbers, let alone 2007....

PEACE

-BLEEDS

tomd63
03-25-2008, 07:52 PM
Here is my problem with Dunn. While he puts up good stats, he does not perform the role that Reds need him to perform. The big slugger that pitchers are afraid to pitch to.


Sounds like square pegs and round holes to me. He is what he is, a guy who can slug like George Foster and get on base like Pete Rose. You bat Dunn 3rd to take best advantage of both his talents and quit worrying about what he doesn't do. What he does do is knocks in 100 of his teammates every year and crosses the plate himself 100 times every year. Plus he almost never gets any props for being so durable and a great clubhouse presence. I think maybe your problem is more with the Red's organiztion who don't seem to be able best utilize Dunn's talents.

Degenerate39
03-25-2008, 08:18 PM
replacing his 106 rbis? he was number 20 in the league with that number last year..

we can all agree GABP is a hitters park..
and in discussions here or maybe they were actual writers doing research either way.. we have agreed GABP can add 4-7 homers onto totals and 8-11 rbi's or so..

52 players had 90 or more rbi's in the league last year..
25 players had 30 or more home runs last year..

sorry but 40 homers and 100 rbi's is not that amazing of a stat line anymore.. while it might still be in the top tier of "POWER" his .264 BA surely isnt in the top tier of hitting... sorry but I would take a person who plays good or better outfield, and hit 15-20 homers and drives in 75 runs over adam dunn any day esp is if saves me 12 million a year..

How many of those were Reds?

757690
03-25-2008, 08:32 PM
I am not arguing that Adam Dunn is not valuable to the Reds and their offense. I am just pointing out that unless he starts to produce better with men on base, he is not worth the $14M+ a year that he will get if signed to a LTC.

That contract would put him in the top 15 highest paid hitters in the majors. The only players who get paid that much who play for mid to small market teams are Lance Berkman and Todd Helton. They are both much better players and much better hitters than Dunn. They are both hitters that I would want in crucial situations. Dunn has just not been the guy throughout his career.

If he does improve with runners on base, then maybe he is worth that much. If he doesn't, then spend the money somewhere else.

OUReds
03-25-2008, 10:01 PM
That contract would put him in the top 15 highest paid hitters in the majors. The only players who get paid that much who play for mid to small market teams are Lance Berkman and Todd Helton. They are both much better players and much better hitters than Dunn. They are both hitters that I would want in crucial situations. Dunn has just not been the guy throughout his career.


Dunn is younger then either of them, and was a better hitter then both last year.

757690
03-25-2008, 11:13 PM
Dunn is younger then either of them, and was a better hitter then both last year.

All three of their OPS+'s were within a few points of each other. All three very different hitters. Hard to say which one was a "better" hitter last year. But Helton and Berkman each had off years, which were as good as one of Dunn's best years.

All I know is that I would trade Dunn for either one right now, even with the age difference. Helton and Berkman know how to deliver when it counts. Dunn never has.

Anyway the point was that mid to small market teams need to spend the big bucks wisely. Until Dunn learns to hit better with men on base, he will not be worth the top dollar that it will take to keep him.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-26-2008, 10:18 AM
757690 i agree.. in a small market team he just doesn't have a place with the contract he will command..


BTW I am not saying to do it.. but if you put Keppinger out in Left.. he would be a defensive upgrade.. still not great but an upgrade, and would get 15 or so homers a year and 75 rbi's.. and he costs less than 1.5 mil..


to answer the other question..

out of the 52 with 90 or more rbi's..
2 others were there with phillips and griffey both having over 90 rbi's last year..

and out of the 25 players with 30 homers or more griff and phillips again were there.. soo as you can see dunn is not the only run producer on this team.. get an upgrade at defense, and a solid hitter who can slide down to 7th or so on the roster..

so you have a starting lineup of say..

hopper/keppinger
phillips
griffey
votto
bruce
EE
Keppinger/Gonzo(if keppinger switch this with EE)
Ross(need a new catcher bad)
Pitcher..

If it's power you have to have..

hopper/keppinger (2 homers a year/15 homers a year)
phillips (25-30 homers a year maybe more)
griffey (30-40 homers a year)
votto (35 homers a year)
bruce (25 homers a year)
EE (20-25 homers a year)
Keppinger/Gonzo(if keppinger switch this with EE) (15 homers/20 homers)
Ross(need a new catcher bad) (Catcher platoon will hit 20-25 homers a year)
Pitcher..

add that all together and that is about 210 homers a year..

which is PLENTY OF POWER!!

you people and your love for watching K..K..HR..K..K..HR..K..K.. from adam dunn frankly make me think you all have no idea of what baseball is supposed to be about.. he is good for a homerun derby.. but not a true game of baseball..

Caveman Techie
03-26-2008, 10:55 AM
757690
you people and your love for watching K..K..HR..K..K..HR..K..K.. from adam dunn frankly make me think you all have no idea of what baseball is supposed to be about.. he is good for a homerun derby.. but not a true game of baseball..

Let me fix this for you:

k..Walk...Walk....HR...k....Walk...K....Walk...HR. ...Walk....Walk

IowaRed
03-26-2008, 11:14 AM
757690 you people and your love for watching K..K..HR..K..K..HR..K..K.. from adam dunn frankly make me think you all have no idea of what baseball is supposed to be about.. he is good for a homerun derby.. but not a true game of baseball..

so according to your pattern Dunn hits .333 with about 200 HR's?

Seriously, explain what baseball is supposed to be about and what a true game of baseball is. I'm guessing it has something to do with Norris Hopper

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 11:21 AM
So when BP never approaches 30 HR's again, and Griffey Retires, we can let Dunn go too, and then have NOBODY that can do 30+/90+ BRILLIANT!!

you people and your love for watching the scrappy guy beat out bunts and run all over the outfield crashing into people.

Give me a lineup of 8 Dunns versus a lineup of 8 Freel/Hopper/Keppingers anyday...

Votto 35 HR's a year?!?! Maybe in 2010, but not in 2008. Same for Jay Bruce and his 25 HR's. EE with 20-25 HRs? Again, WHAT YEAR are you talking about?!?! He did hit over 15 HR's once - ONCE. Surely not any year with Ken Griffey Junior in it, unless you think he's playing until he's 42, and is planning on working out with Barry Bond's fitness team... Hitting 30-40 HR's ?!?! Well he has broken 30 HRs - ONCE since 2000. 210 Homers? The Reds hit 204 Homers last year - WITH Dunn's 40.

OVER-valuing prospects and UNDER-valuing proven ML production, is how you end up in REBUILDING for 15 years... when all those prospects don't pan out to their pie-in-the-sky expectations.

SURE, Jeff Keppinger can play Left Field, and his stellar defense will make up for the MASSIVE HOLES left in our offense from the Departures of Dunn; then either Griffey will either drink from the Fountain of Youth (equal parts Youth and Creatine) or EVERYONE ELSE will Magically produce 50% more power numbers than they have in their entire careers to date.

What color is the sky in your world? Just want to know so I can complete the picture, so far I've got rivers flowing chocolate and cotton candy clowds - if you've got your Rose-Colored glasses on to see it!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 11:23 AM
so according to your pattern Dunn hits .333 with about 200 HR's?

Seriously, explain what baseball is supposed to be about and what a true game of baseball is. I'm guessing it has something to do with Norris Hopper

:rockband:

:notworthy

PEACE

-BLEEDS

dl3looney
03-26-2008, 11:26 AM
I'm sure we can all agree to the fact that Dunn has left many of us scratching our heads at his defense, his inability to hit a 2 strike breaking ball that everyone knows is coming and most likely in the dirt, and his propensity for solo home runs. However.... when you look at his numbers over the last 4 years he is a pillar of consistency for this team and its offense and that is why he'll get the LTC. he's proven he can put up the numbers and the upside in his potential is obvious. You can analyze it all you want but all of you love to see him walk to the batters box because you know it's a very real possibility that he'll crush the next pitch in the river...that's why we love baseball.

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 11:31 AM
757690 i agree.. in a small market team he just doesn't have a place with the contract he will command..

We are not small market. This ain't New York, but it ain't Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay or Kansas City either. Carl Lindner doesn't own the team anymore.

We can't match the Cubs payroll, but we can compete with St. Louis/Milwaukee/Houston and a number of other clubs in the NL. We've got a TON of young kids on our team who'll make under $500K for a few years. We have pitchers making over $10M. We can afford to pay Adam Dunn $13-15M, and we very well should.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
03-26-2008, 12:35 PM
Bleeds.. you seem to fail at many things here.. one of which is understanding adam dunn WILL NOT TAKE a 13 million dollar contract!!! NO IFS ANDS OR BUTS ABOUT IT!

if he did he would be a welcome piece for this team.. but his new contract will include years of at least 20 million.. unless of course he lays a bomb this year and we don't resign him and no one else wants his garbage fielding with a side of K salad..

8 adam dunns and I am not sure they would ever have a game without at least one error.. HAHAHA I would guess 8 adam dunns would yield approximately 32 outs a game or more.. unless you are sticking 5 of them in the outfield, then maybe it is only 30 outs.. and only keeping one at second and first.. having adaum dunns in the whole outfield is like playing russian roulette with a tommy gun.. not only does he not have the range.. his arm is floppier than a wet angel hair pasta noodle..

Homerun mashers are far easier to replace nowadays.. and yes i would say people like jeff keppinger, while still not up to defensive standards to be a major league shortstop.. his bat is surely welcome in a real championship caliber lineup.. seriously.. you stick him in left and trade dunn for a legit pitcher.. straight up.. and this team goes from contending to a favorite in the NL central.. they lineup is loaded with 3 or 4 high average guys.. Kepp, Hopper, Hatteberg and with EE and Bphill at .290 that aint bad either.. 5 guys over .290.. 6 or 7 guys who have 20 homer+ potential.. Griff, BPhill, EE, Gonzo, Bruce, Votto, and Ross if he can get back on track.. and 3 guys with 30+ SB speed.. freel, bphill, and hopper..

don't tell me we would all die and this team would burn without dunn.. there is PLENTY of offense already all around this team.. the problem is pitching and if we are locking up that much money into one player who CAN BE REPLACED.. we are far dumber than I even thought..

I have already told you BLEEDS specifically championship teams don't have HOMERUN mashers, notice i didn't say hitters because if my life depended on him either getting a hit or striking out.. i would have less than a 50% chance of living.. I dont think there is a player with a higher than his 1.31:1 K to Hit ratio in HISTORY!!! they have players who can play the game all around, sometimes with more power than normal.. again I ask you to find more than 3 world championship teams with a player with more than 45 homers and a BA less than .265.. can't.. in history..

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 01:06 PM
Homerun hitters are far easier to replace nowadays.. and yes i would say people like jeff keppinger, while still not up to defensive standards to be a major league shortstop.. his bat is surely welcome in a real championship caliber lineup.. seriously..


I agree, batting 2nd, not 3rd/4th, like Dunn. He is a good table setter, but he's not "replacing" Dunn by any stretch of the imagination.


they lineup is loaded with 3 or 4 high average guys.. Kepp, Hopper, Hatteberg

Theys guys are all PART TIME guys, not 150 game per year guys. This ain't a Video Game. Two career minor leaguers and an AGING part-time Veteran. GET REAL!!


6 or 7 guys who have 20 homer+ potential.. Griff, BPhill, EE, Gonzo, Bruce, Votto, and Ross if he can get back on track..

Key word bolded. See my previous post. Name me WHEN you expect all these guys to be in the SAME LINEUP with 20+ HR's - you had Griff at 30 and Votto at 35. PIPEDREAM!!



and 3 guys with 30+ SB speed.. freel, bphill, and hopper..

This just in - Freel and Hopper play PRIMARILY the same position, also the same position as the STARTING CENTER FIELDER Corey Patterson, who will face pretty much ALL of the Righthanders. They are PART TIME GUYS who you can't "PROJECT" to get ANYWHERE NEAR 30 SB's - SINGULARLY, let alone BOTH. Corey Patterson may well get 30+ SB's, but Freel and Hopper, not so much. I'm sure in your lineup you have all 3 of these guys there so you can have 120 SB's and 2 HR's...


there is PLENTY of offense already all around this team.. the problem is pitching and if we are locking up that much money into one player who CAN BE REPLACED.. we are far dumber than I even thought..

You haven't shown me one shread of CREDIBLE evidence that this can happen, other than Fairy-Tales of MIRACULOUS break-out/extended years from 8-9 other guys to make up for one guy.


I have already told you BLEEDS specifically championship teams don't have HOMERUN mashers, notice i didn't say hitters because if my life depended on him either getting a hit or striking out.. i would have less than a 50% chance of living.. I dont think there is a player with a higher than his 1.31:1 K to Hit ratio in HISTORY!!! they have players who can play the game all around, sometimes with more power than normal.. again I ask you to find more than 3 world championship teams with a player with more than 45 homers and a BA less than .265.. can't.. in history..

That is the biggest pile of "YOUR NAME" I have read in a long time. Did you actually read that before you posted it? A rambling wreck of uncorrelated thoughts. What in the HECK is the bold part supposed to mean?!?! What I think it was sorely lacking was more periods...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

durl
03-26-2008, 01:17 PM
Pick your player:
HR RBI BB SB OBP SLG AVG
1 - 35 117 111 3 .445 .621 .332
2 - 34 102 94 7 .386 .510 .278
3 - 40 106 101 9 .386 .554 .264
4 - 35 117 95 0 .410 .563 .275

Salary for 2007:

1 - $13.2 million
2 - $14.5 million
3 - $10.5 million
4 - $15.6 million

I purposefully left out Ks because I wanted to see true offensive output, not the lost potential via strikeout.

Player 1 is David Ortiz.
Player 2 is Lance Berkman.
Player 3 is Adam Dunn.
Player 4 is Jim Thome.

There were a lot of younger players put up very good power numbers last year that made far less money than these 4 but their salaries will definitely jump when their contracts come up for renewal. Number-wise, the closest to Dunn was Berkman and Berkman made about 40% more.

I'm not trying to justify a higher salary for Dunn but rather to look at his ACTUAL PRODUCTION compared to other players and their salaries.

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 01:40 PM
Pick your player:
HR RBI BB SB OBP SLG AVG
1 - 35 117 111 3 .445 .621 .332
2 - 34 102 94 7 .386 .510 .278
3 - 40 106 101 9 .386 .554 .264
4 - 35 117 95 0 .410 .563 .275

Salary for 2007:

1 - $13.2 million
2 - $14.5 million
3 - $10.5 million
4 - $15.6 million

I purposefully left out Ks because I wanted to see true offensive output, not the lost potential via strikeout.

Player 1 is David Ortiz.
Player 2 is Lance Berkman.
Player 3 is Adam Dunn.
Player 4 is Jim Thome.

There were a lot of younger players put up very good power numbers last year that made far less money than these 4 but their salaries will definitely jump when their contracts come up for renewal. Number-wise, the closest to Dunn was Berkman and Berkman made about 40% more.

I'm not trying to justify a higher salary for Dunn but rather to look at his ACTUAL PRODUCTION compared to other players and their salaries.

OH MY GOD!!! How could any of those small market teams pay Jim Thome - surely that MASHER couldn't help Cleveland or Philly at all, only the MIGHTY WHITE SOX could use him correctly, right?!?


edit: AND, how many of these guys bat FIFTH!!?!?!?! with an OUT machine in front, a struggling young 3b-man behind him, and another out-machine behind that guy?!?!

I would just LOVE to see how much more production we could get out of him batting 3rd or 4th.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
03-26-2008, 02:43 PM
I am saying no consistent starter in the league has as high a K:H ratio.. I sure hope you are joking.. because you seriously have no idea what good baseball is, and unfortunately you still don't understand that Dunn WILL NOT BE approachable with 13 mil.. if the reds sing him for any more than 16 million they are DONE for the lifetime of his contract, unless they have one good year and then all their young players are up for arbitration and they cant afford them.. soo they have to let them walk.. MARK MY WORDS if Dunn gets signed to that kind of a contract the reds will not drastically improve over the life of that contract.. they will surely be worse at the end than they are are the beginning..

BLEEDS
03-26-2008, 05:28 PM
You don't know JACK about Baseball Economics.

The Reds CAN and EASILY CAN afford Dunn at 15/16M, or more. I doubt he averages more than that in a contract however. 5 years $80M (last year a BIG Option) would be my guess.

We have, on the books for 2009 over $20M LESS than we do right now, and only ONE hole not filled - LF. A lot of the middle vet guys are NOT going to be back:
Weathers - $3M
Stanton - $3M
Affeldt - $3M
Ross - $3.5M (no way we pick up that option)
Valentin - $1.3M - maybe pick him up again?
Hatte - $1.8M - no reason to keep him around in 2010, probably trade him prior

these guys can be replaced by rookies and/or min/low salary vets. The only GLARING need might be a new Catcher if we dont keep Ross or Valentin and want a more experienced ($$) guy.

They are going to save $12M by replacing Griffey with Bruce in 2009. He's been paid $12.5M since 2000 and they've been able to sign/pay guys TONS of money, including $10M+ for Harang/Arroyo/Cordero/Dunn...

They have Votto, Cueto, Volquez all in their first FULL year in the bigs, they will be cheap for 3-4 years.
Bruce and Bailey will start their first years in 2009. We're talking PEANUTS.
BP's been paid already and EE will be in his first year of Arbitration.
THAT is your CORE team.

What can't we afford?

Agon - $5.375M
Freel - $4M (who may be traded before)
BP - $4.75M
are the only other guys making OVER $1M not named Harang/Arroyo/Cordero in 2009.

Agon comes off the books in 2010 - unless we want to pay him $6M
Freel's gone by then, if not before

SO, we're sitting at about $57M before filling our LF spot. SURELY we can pay Dunn $16M and we're at $73M, with some change to spare to get some FA pen or bench players.

This idea that we are "DONE" if we sign Dunn long-term is LUDICROUS at best, and ill-informed at the least.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
03-26-2008, 07:34 PM
No one is saying that the Reds can't afford a $16M contract, just that Dunn should not be that guy.

He is not a middle of the lineup slugger as I have tried to explain with his numbers with men on base. That money would put him in the top 15 of all hitters in the majors. He is not anywhere near one of the top 15 hitters in the majors, especially when you consider how he performs in important situations.
If the Reds could keep him for $13M, then maybe he is worth it, as a great #2 hitter or a #6 hitter with the hope that Phillips, Bruce, EE and Votto become sluggers, but if the Reds are spending $16M over many years, then there are many better options. Just because you hit lots of home runs does not mean you are a good middle of the lineup slugger.

The Reds offense have been mediocre for years, mostly because they have relied on Dunn to be THE GUY in the middle of the lineup and he has disappointed. This is why he is not deserving of a big long term deal, unless he gets better with men on base.

OUReds
03-26-2008, 10:00 PM
I am saying no consistent starter in the league has as high a K:H ratio..

K:H ratio? What on earth is that? Do you know why nobody keeps track of anyone's K:H ratio? Because it is absolutely meaningless. Seriously, it correlates with absolutely nothing useful about an offensive player.

Successful offensive players get on base and collect as many bases as possible (hit for power). Honestly, this is all baseball 101 stuff. It's not the Dunn supporters that don't understand how an offense works here.

IowaRed
03-26-2008, 10:06 PM
So Dunn isn't a good middle of the lineup slugger huh? (whatever that means)

Did you now Adam Dunn ranks 62nd in career OPS in the history or baseball? Ahead of guys like Sosa, Killebrew, McCovey, Stargell, Matthews

Did you know Adam Dunn ranks 5th all-time in HR's per AB? Behind only McGwire, Bonds, Ruth, and Thome and ahead of Jr, Mantle, Ted Williams, Pujols, Schmidt, Gehrig, Aaron, and A-Rod

Did you know Adam Dunn has hit 40+ home runs for the last 4 years? Others who have accomplished that over the last 4 years.......take your time

AmarilloRed
03-26-2008, 10:17 PM
No one is saying that the Reds can't afford a $16M contract, just that Dunn should not be that guy.

He is not a middle of the lineup slugger as I have tried to explain with his numbers with men on base. That money would put him in the top 15 of all hitters in the majors. He is not anywhere near one of the top 15 hitters in the majors, especially when you consider how he performs in important situations.
If the Reds could keep him for $13M, then maybe he is worth it, as a great #2 hitter or a #6 hitter with the hope that Phillips, Bruce, EE and Votto become sluggers, but if the Reds are spending $16M over many years, then there are many better options. Just because you hit lots of home runs does not mean you are a good middle of the lineup slugger.

The Reds offense have been mediocre for years, mostly because they have relied on Dunn to be THE GUY in the middle of the lineup and he has disappointed. This is why he is not deserving of a big long term deal, unless he gets better with men on base.

I usually agree with you, but not this time. Any comparable player to Dunn will cost as much money, if not more. We can count on Dunn to consistantly give us 40 HR and 100 RBI in a season. There have been no other players in recent Reds history to even approach that, and I don't think Brandon Phillips can be expected to do 30 HR every year.

The trade of Josh Hamilton made it highly likely that the Reds will sign Dunn to a LTC. Griffey will be coming off the books after this year, and I think the money will be there to sign Dunn to a LTC. Votto and Bruce are both talented prospects, but neither is guaranteed to approach Dunn's power production. You might turn out to be correct that 16 million is too much for Dunn; the Reds however need to produce a comparable slugger from the minor leagues who hits better with more production to let Dunn go.

OUReds
03-26-2008, 10:26 PM
No one is saying that the Reds can't afford a $16M contract, just that Dunn should not be that guy.

He is not a middle of the lineup slugger as I have tried to explain with his numbers with men on base. That money would put him in the top 15 of all hitters in the majors. He is not anywhere near one of the top 15 hitters in the majors, especially when you consider how he performs in important situations.
If the Reds could keep him for $13M, then maybe he is worth it, as a great #2 hitter or a #6 hitter with the hope that Phillips, Bruce, EE and Votto become sluggers, but if the Reds are spending $16M over many years, then there are many better options. Just because you hit lots of home runs does not mean you are a good middle of the lineup slugger.

The Reds offense have been mediocre for years, mostly because they have relied on Dunn to be THE GUY in the middle of the lineup and he has disappointed. This is why he is not deserving of a big long term deal, unless he gets better with men on base.

Dunn OPS'd .944 with runners on base last year, slightly above his season average. The only numbers you have presented to back your claim that Dunn is a poor middle of the lineup hitter is that Dunn gets a hit only 17% of the time with RISP compared to "other" middle of the lineup hitters.

I'm not sure your source, but Dunn hit .241 with RISP last year against a .264 overall average. In 2006 it was .221 against .231. In 2005 it was .241 with runners on against an average of .247. This is a far cry from the 17% you present, but even if it wasn't, average is simply not a great way to judge the overall worth of a hitter for reasons given a million times on this site. It ignores Dunn's greatest strengths as a hitter, his patience and power. As we can see from his OPS with runners on base last year, he did both fine.

As far as Dunn being the reason the offense has been mediocre? I dunno what to say. Pretty much every stat in existance says you are wrong.

Enrico Pallazzo
03-26-2008, 11:13 PM
I agree completely that the Reds need to sign Dunn to a LTD. Whatever his faults, are the Reds really going to find another power bat as good as his on the free agent market? Especially someone who is willing to come to Cincy instead of Boston/New York/LA? Look, with the Harang and Arroyo deals and the young pitchers coming up the window for this group is the next 3-4 years.

How does letting your best .OPS guy walk (in his prime!) make any sense with the current roster we have, whatever Dunn's other faults are?

757690
03-26-2008, 11:18 PM
Dunn OPS'd .944 with runners on base last year, slightly above his season average. The only numbers you have presented to back your claim that Dunn is a poor middle of the lineup hitter is that Dunn gets a hit only 17% of the time with RISP compared to "other" middle of the lineup hitters.

I'm not sure your source, but Dunn hit .241 with RISP last year against a .264 overall average. In 2006 it was .221 against .231. In 2005 it was .241 with runners on against an average of .247. This is a far cry from the 17% you present, but even if it wasn't, average is simply not a great way to judge the overall worth of a hitter for reasons given a million times on this site. It ignores Dunn's greatest strengths as a hitter, his patience and power. As we can see from his OPS with runners on base last year, he did both fine.

As far as Dunn being the reason the offense has been mediocre? I dunno what to say. Pretty much every stat in existance says you are wrong.



The 17% is based on plate appearances. What this means is that Dunn gets a lot of walks in those situations. That is fine for some hitters, but not a guy the team is paying $16M a year to.

His OPS is driven mostly by walks, not hits. He walks in crucial situations when he should be driving in runs with hits, specifically if he is getting paid $16M+ a year. That is my main complaint with him

I like Dunn, I would like him to be on the team for many years, but just not as the main slugger in the middle of the lineup and a mid size market team like the Reds can only afford one big time slugger, so why not spend it on a guy who actually is good at that job, which Dunn does not do.

I will say that Dunn has acknowledged this fault, and has said he is going to work on it this season. If he does, then definitely, he should get a long term deal.

757690
03-26-2008, 11:25 PM
So Dunn isn't a good middle of the lineup slugger huh? (whatever that means)
It means, as I have tried to explain, that he does not get hits with men on base, instead he walks. That is fine, but not if your are the main slugger in the lineup.


Did you now Adam Dunn ranks 62nd in career OPS in the history or baseball? Ahead of guys like Sosa, Killebrew, McCovey, Stargell, Matthews

My argument is with his ability to get hits with men on base.


Did you know Adam Dunn ranks 5th all-time in HR's per AB? Behind only McGwire, Bonds, Ruth, and Thome and ahead of Jr, Mantle, Ted Williams, Pujols, Schmidt, Gehrig, Aaron, and A-Rod

See above


Did you know Adam Dunn has hit 40+ home runs for the last 4 years? Others who have accomplished that over the last 4 years.......take your time

See above.

OUReds
03-26-2008, 11:34 PM
Yes, after my post it occured to me that by presenting his ability to get on base as a NEGATIVE instead of a positive, you can make the truthful, yet meaningless, statement that he gets a hit in only 17% of his plate appearances.

Nevermind that the other hitters make outs more often then Dunn, nevermind that Dunn will hit for greater power then the majority of hitters.

Any logic that says getting on base and not making an out is bad is seriously flawed.

As I said before, Adan Dunn has flaws as a hitter, but you are focusing on them to the point of absurdity while ignoring all his positives.

Adam Dunn creates more runs for the Reds then any other member of the team, and is indeed among the best in baseball in doing so (20th in all MLB in RC/27 last year). We'd all like him to be EVEN BETTER (which we might very well see since he is just entering his prime years), but we should appreciate what he DOES do as well.

757690
03-27-2008, 12:02 AM
Yes, after my post it occured to me that by presenting his ability to get on base as a NEGATIVE instead of a positive, you can make the truthful, yet meaningless, statement that he gets a hit in only 17% of his plate appearances.

Nevermind that the other hitters make outs more often then Dunn, nevermind that Dunn will hit for greater power then the majority of hitters.

Any logic that says getting on base and not making an out is bad is seriously flawed.


I am not saying that it is "bad", I am saying that that is not what you want your big time slugger to be best at. You want him to be best at driving in runs, which he can almost only do with a hit.

To give you an idea of how bad Dunn is at what he should be great at (getting a hit with men on base), Juan Castro gets a hit 22.2% of the time with MOB, Alex Gonzalez gets a hit 22.1% of the time. Do you know who has a similar percentage to Dunn? David Ross. Dunn basically is David Ross who knows how to take a walk. That's great, just not worth $16M+ a year for four years.

I am putting together a list of what percentage all the other sluggers in the majors get hits with MOB. I can assure you Dunn is at the bottom.



As I said before, Adan Dunn has flaws as a hitter, but you are focusing on them to the point of absurdity while ignoring all his positives.

What would you think of a closer who has great stats, great WHIP, great ERA, great K/BB ratio, except when guys are on base, he gives up a ton of hits? Is that absurd to complain about that? Same situation with Dunn. He's great, except for when it counts.



Adam Dunn creates more runs for the Reds then any other member of the team, and is indeed among the best in baseball in doing so (20th in all MLB in RC/9 last year). We'd all like him to be EVEN BETTER (which we might very well see since he is just entering his prime years), but we should appreciate what he DOES do as well.

Runs created are based as much as the guys you have around you, your place in the batting order, than it is on your skill. Dunn (except for when Boone batted him first and second) has been the Reds main slugger for many years now.

BLEEDS
03-27-2008, 12:13 AM
There is a REASON he gets a crap-ton of walks with men on base.

#1 - is because he is a FEARED batter.

#2 - is because he is batting FIFTH in a lineup that has featured CRAP in front of him, and CRAP behind him.


#1 you don't want to change. Making him swing at balls is a bad idea.
#2 you can change. Put him 2/3/4 in the lineup, and put OTHER guys who are all-around better hitters behing him, and you will see them NOT pitch around him. Hopefully Votto, Bruce, and a SEASONED EE can help that. Brandon Phillips in front of him is doing him NO good. BP, the out-machine, and the DOUBLE PLAY machine. Clears the bases 70% of the time, and gives the pitcher MORE of a reason to not give in to Dunn.

This thread has officially made it to:deadhorse stage. Old HorsePooh has given up trying to find stats that can't be discounted, and the rest of us are tired of defending Dunn to the people that won't listen to REASON.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
03-27-2008, 12:20 AM
I am not saying that it is "bad", I am saying that that is not what you want your big time slugger to be best at. You want him to be best at driving in runs, which he can almost only do with a hit.

To give you an idea of how bad Dunn is at what he should be great at (getting a hit with men on base), Juan Castro gets a hit 22.2% of the time with MOB, Alex Gonzalez gets a hit 22.1% of the time. Do you know who has a similar percentage to Dunn? David Ross. Dunn basically is David Ross who knows how to take a walk. That's great, just not worth $16M+ a year for four years.

I am putting together a list of what percentage all the other sluggers in the majors get hits with MOB. I can assure you Dunn is at the bottom.




What would you think of a closer who has great stats, great WHIP, great ERA, great K/BB ratio, except when guys are on base, he gives up a ton of hits? Is that absurd to complain about that? Same situation with Dunn. He's great, except for when it counts.




Runs created are based as much as the guys you have around you, your place in the batting order, than it is on your skill. Dunn (except for when Boone batted him first and second) has been the Reds main slugger for many years now.

Exactly like David Ross. Only with the ability to get on base more. And hit with much more power. Which means, of course, that they are not similar at all.

You can make that list, but since it fails to factor in both power and a vital component of .OBP (walks), it will be worthless.

RC27 is based on personal stats, and is not dependent on where you are in the lineup or who bats around you.

Your pitcher analogy is comparing apples and oranges.

757690
03-27-2008, 12:36 AM
Exactly like David Ross. Only with the ability to get on base more. And hit with much more power. Which means, of course, that they are not similar at all.

Ross and Dunn have very similar power numbers in terms of HR per plate appearances. In the two years that Ross has been a starter, he actually has better HR's number than Dunn.

Dunn 1 HR every 17.2 PA, Ross 1 HR every 16.9 PA.



You can make that list, but since it fails to factor in both power and a vital component of .OBP (walks), it will be worthless.

My whole point is that you don't want your middle of the lineup sluggers to walk! What don't you understand about that? You want them to get hits! You want top and bottom of the lineup guys to walk, so middle of the lineup guys can drive them in...WITH HITS! Even Joe Sheehan agrees with me on this point.

I will adjust my calculations to include power numbers, since I agree with you that those are important.


RC27 is based on personal stats, and is not dependent on where you are in the lineup or who bats around you.

Don't know much about RC27, so I am sorry if i misunderstood your point.

OUReds
03-27-2008, 12:44 AM
I understand your point, I just think you are dead wrong. The things that make a good middle of the order hitter are the same that make any other good hitter. Don't make outs, get on base, collect as many total bases as possible.

These components for success don't change just because you are batting 4th or 5th.

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 12:58 AM
If Dunn was used properly in the batting order he would take a walk with runners on 2nd and 3rd to bring up Phillips. Phillips would then hit into a fielder's choice and get credited for an RBI, thus making Phillips a better run producer. :D

IowaRed
03-27-2008, 08:30 AM
It means, as I have tried to explain, that he does not get hits with men on base, instead he walks. That is fine, but not if your are the main slugger in the lineup.


Obviously it's not fine if we are having this discussion. There isn't just 1 alternative to walks, you know that right? It's not walks or basehits. It could be base hits, K's, pop outs, DP's, etc. What you are basically saying is that Dunn isn't a slugger until he stops walking so much but a walk means that he's taking pitches OUT of the strike zone. Dunn can't control a pitcher's location, he can only react to it and for the last 4 years he's done that to the tune 40+ HR's and a serious avoidance of outs. I'll take walks any day over expanding one's zone and comfort level in an effort to live up to some absurd expectation.

BLEEDS
03-27-2008, 10:31 AM
The mere Fact that Juan Castro was brought into a statistics conversation concerning Adam Dunn PROVES the entire point for the pro-Dunn crowd.

If you don't know HOW the statistics were PRODUCED or APPLIED, then you have NO CLUE and shouldn't be using them.

By your "thought process" we should be putting Juan Castro higher in the lineup than Adam Dunn. Heck, might as well put him ahead of BP and KGJ while we're at it - he's our new Clean-Up hitter, because AGon should bat 3rd!!

I'm sure PLACEMENT IN THE LINEUP has NOTHING to do with hitting with RISP/MOB.

Statements like "you don't want your MOL guys "TAKING" walks" is about the most Absurd comment I've ever heard.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 11:34 AM
I don't think you understand that he is terrible at actually doing a big time homerun masher's job..

if he draws walks, then all he does is clog the bases, I can think of a few cases where one single by the guy behind him, just about anyone else would have gone first to third, and he just slowly moped to second.. and then immediately there is a sac fly that would have scored him had he hustled or done really anything, but instead he was stranded at second..

I am sorry you don't take into account that a real hitter should have a .280 or above average.. and to be in the top 20 in the league you MUST have that.. it's not a .280 or 40 homers thing.. sorry but his 40 homers and 100 rbis is not that great anymore.. as I have stated 100 times..

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 11:49 AM
Just a few hitters who are better than Adam Dunn..

In my eyes...

Matt Holliday
Chase Utley
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz
Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
David Wright
Miguel Cabrera
Derek Lee
Prince Fielder
Ryan Braun
Alfonso Soriano
Jimmy Rollins
Jose Reyes
Magglio Ordonez
Jorge Posada(when healthy)
Vlad
Ichiro
Curtis Granderson
Heck after last year if Carlos Pena can keep it up...



BTW Pat Burrell signs a 6 year 50 mill contract back in 03 for stats that are about like Adam Dunns except he doesn't play 160 games a year..
Dunns contract will be somewhere around 15 mil.. 17 mil.. 19 mil.. 20 mil.. 21 mil.. if he were to sign a LTD.. soo that would basically be a 5 year 92 mil contract.. you honestly think he is worth that?

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 11:53 AM
Okay, so Dunn hit .264 last and only real hitters have a .280 or above average. For Dunn to have hit .280 last season he would have needed 8 more hits... that's only one hit every 3 weeks of the baseball season. I hate that our LF is so terrible that he can only hit .264! How many RBIs do you expect Dunn to have? I think he overachieved in the RBI categorie last season, seeing as he spent signifigant time in the 6 hole and over half of the season behing Brandon Phillips and his .288 average and league leading 26 DPs.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 11:57 AM
league leading? i didn't know 26 was more than 27 by pujols or lee.. but that is just simple math that you cant grasp.. soo i would expect you to be able to grasp that 8 hits would actually possibly win 2 or more games.. especially when it is dunn and all he does is swing for the fences..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 12:12 PM
Here's how meaningless your comparisons are. Dunn last season only had 3 hits with the bases load in 8 official ABs and 15 TPA, but he still managed to drive in 15 runs. Bradon Phillips had 5 hits in 19 ABs and 20 TPA, but he only drove in 13 runs. Dunn's basesloaded OPS was 1.217 compared to Phillips .879. Dunn with less hits, less ABs, and less TPA found a way to be more productive that Phillips with the basesloaded. There are tons of stats out there that prove AD is the most productive player on the Reds. And if what he does is so easy, what have any other Reds done it?

And for you guys that like productive outs, Dunn led the Reds with 3 sac flies with the basesloaded.

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 12:17 PM
league leading? i didn't know 26 was more than 27 by pujols or lee.. but that is just simple math that you cant grasp.. soo i would expect you to be able to grasp that 8 hits would actually possibly win 2 or more games.. especially when it is dunn and all he does is swing for the fences..

My bad, I overlooked Pujols and Lee but your grasp of valuable baseball statistics is something that I find amazing. Who knew that a guy had to hit .280 to be a good hitter?

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 12:22 PM
you cant call yourself a hitter if in your AB's you WHIFF 30 percent of the time.. sorry but yes you do have to hit more than .280 or so to be considered a good hitter.. a great hitter hits over .300..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 12:29 PM
Yea, because hitting .300 wins ballgames and leads to runs scored. You most have absolutely no idea that scoring runs is the name of the game. It doesn't matter that 30% of his outs are Ks, Dunn still made less outs than any other Reds regular. Hell, Norris Hopper and his .329 average still made more outs that AD. I would rather have a guy that can get XBH and not make outs than a guy that hits .335 with a .345 OBP and all he does is hit singles. You take your punch and judy guys that don't "K" and I'll take the high OPS guys and I'll out score you every time.

Ed Otten
03-27-2008, 12:38 PM
I am sorry you don't take into account that a real hitter should have a .280 or above average.. and to be in the top 20 in the league you MUST have that...

Why?

It would seem to me that a .280 or higher BA is a completely arbitrary criteria to define a "hitter".
(And 40 homers is arbitary to define a "masher" or whatever.)

And has anyone considered the possibility that Dunn is a player that doesn't fit into the historical "types" of baseball players?

He doesn't hit for average... like a "masher".
But he has a high OBP... like a "hitter".

He strikes out a lot, like a "masher".
He also hits a lot of home runs, like a "masher".
But he takes a lot of walks, like a "hitter".

So why try to place him into one category or another if he really doesn't fit the mold of either? I don't see the benefit of trying to do that.

I think Adam Dunn deserves a LTC because the evidence suggests that over the course of a season, he will help the Reds win games because of his offensive production; I could care less if he is a "hitter" or "masher". The important part is the offense. He
may not be a pure "hitter" or "masher", but he has certainly been a "producer".

OUReds
03-27-2008, 12:43 PM
Pat Burrell signs a 6 year 50 mill contract back in 03 for stats that are about like Adam Dunns except he doesn't play 160 games a year..
Dunns contract will be somewhere around 15 mil.. 17 mil.. 19 mil.. 20 mil.. 21 mil.. if he were to sign a LTD.. soo that would basically be a 5 year 92 mil contract.. you honestly think he is worth that?

Burell signed that contract before the 2003 season, which essentially bought out 3 years of arbitration. It isn't a valid comparison on Adam Dunn's market value (who is well past his arbitration years of course).

There is also the small fact that Adam Dunn gets on base more then Burrell (.367/.381), hits for more power the Burrell (.482/.518), and is younger then Burrell.

I understand that since you think walks clog up the bases and eschew stats like slugging percentage for more meaningful indicators like H/K, that this will likely prove unconvincing to you. Perhaps we could bring back career .308 hitter Hal Morris? Perhaps he would be better then Adam in LF?

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 12:49 PM
Norris hoppers 227 outs was more than dunns 402? wow your math must REALLY suck..

Dunns outs vs. the rest of the team too..

Outs per game ratio to even out the stats since some people only played 100 games or so due to injury and such..

Ross 2.36
Hatteberg 2.25
BPhill 3.18
EE 2.62
Gonzo 2.77
Dunn 2.64
Hamilton 2.47
Griff 2.82
Freel 2.97
Valentine 1.91
Kepp 2.69
Conine while with the reds.. 2.11


While dunns is better than some it certainly isn't better than everyone else.. as you claim..

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 12:51 PM
Burell signed that contract before the 2003 season, which essentially bought out 3 years of arbitration. It isn't a valid comparison on Adam Dunn's market value (who is well past his arbitration years of course).

There is also the small fact that Adam Dunn gets on base more then Burrell (.367/.381), hits for more power the Burrell (.482/.518), and is younger then Burrell.

I understand that since you think walks clog up the bases and eschew stats like slugging percentage for more meaningful indicators like H/K, that this will likely prove unconvincing to you. Perhaps we could bring back career .308 hitter Hal Morris? Perhaps he would be better then Adam in LF?

and because he has more power and is younger his contract will be greater..

Degenerate39
03-27-2008, 12:54 PM
Norris hoppers 227 outs was more than dunns 402? wow your math must REALLY suck..
Dunns outs vs. the rest of the team too..

Outs per game ratio to even out the stats since some people only played 100 games or so due to injury and such..

Ross 2.36
Hatteberg 2.25
BPhill 3.18
EE 2.62
Gonzo 2.77
Dunn 2.64
Hamilton 2.47
Griff 2.82
Freel 2.97
Valentine 1.91
Kepp 2.69
Conine while with the reds.. 2.11


While dunns is better than some it certainly isn't better than everyone else.. as you claim..

Norris didn't play as much as Dunn did last year if I'm correct. Last year he only played in 121 games and had 305 At-Bats. While Dunn had played in 152 games and had 522 At-Bats

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 12:55 PM
Burell signed that contract before the 2003 season, which essentially bought out 3 years of arbitration. It isn't a valid comparison on Adam Dunn's market value (who is well past his arbitration years of course).

There is also the small fact that Adam Dunn gets on base more then Burrell (.367/.381), hits for more power the Burrell (.482/.518), and is younger then Burrell.

I understand that since you think walks clog up the bases and eschew stats like slugging percentage for more meaningful indicators like H/K, that this will likely prove unconvincing to you. Perhaps we could bring back career .308 hitter Hal Morris? Perhaps he would be better then Adam in LF?

to be completely honest he was a legit big league every AB was going to be fought for hitter.. and he certainly wasn't worse than DUnn in the field.. and because he is less powerful and all his contract would be less than half of what adam dunn will try and get.. soo yes replace dunn with hal morris and i would be happy..

OUReds
03-27-2008, 12:59 PM
to be completely honest he was a legit big league every AB was going to be fought for hitter.. and he certainly wasn't worse than DUnn in the field.. and because he is less powerful and all his contract would be less than half of what adam dunn will try and get.. soo yes replace dunn with hal morris and i would be happy..

Wow.

That's all I need to know.

Enjoy the season.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:00 PM
Norris didn't play as much as Dunn did last year if I'm correct. Last year he only played in 121 games and had 305 At-Bats. While Dunn had played in 152 games and had 522 At-Bats

hopper had 307 ABs..
Hopper had a higher Out to AB ratio.. but still like listed the rest of the team had plenty of players with better ratios per game than dunn..

but still that wasnt clarified in the arguement..
"Hell, Norris Hopper and his .329 average still made more outs that AD."

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:02 PM
Wow.

That's all I need to know.

Enjoy the season.

I didnt say trade them one for one.. but if I had that option and then could use the money on a legit number 2 pitcher.. you would be a fool not to take that..

IowaRed
03-27-2008, 01:03 PM
you cant call yourself a hitter if in your AB's you WHIFF 30 percent of the time.. sorry but yes you do have to hit more than .280 or so to be considered a good hitter.. a great hitter hits over .300..

completely arbitrary and meaningless labels. Any facts to back up your assertions of what BA makes a good and great hitter? Yep, it's the batting average that makes the ballplayer

hitters with under .300 career batting averages

Barry Bonds
Mickey Mantle
Al Kaline
Jeff Bagwell
Duke Snider
Barry Larkin
Frank Robinson
Lou Brock
Ken Griffey Jr.
David Ortiz
Eddie Murray
Alan Trammell
Robin Yount
Dave Winfield


Hitters with over .300 career batting average

John Kruk
Pedro Guerrero
Juan Pierre
Sean Casey
Jose Vidro
Mike Greenwell
Mark Grace
Hal Morris
Placido Polanco
Ralph Garr
Johnny Pesky
Matty Alou
Jackie Robinson

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:07 PM
completely arbitrary and meaningless labels. Any facts to back up your assertions of what BA makes a good and great hitter? Yep, it's the batting average that makes the ballplayer

hitters with under .300 career batting averages

Barry Bonds
Mickey Mantle
Al Kaline
Jeff Bagwell
Duke Snider
Barry Larkin
Frank Robinson
Lou Brock
Ken Griffey Jr.
David Ortiz
Eddie Murray
Alan Trammell
Robin Yount
Dave Winfield


Hitters with over .300 career batting average

John Kruk
Pedro Guerrero
Juan Pierre
Sean Casey
Jose Vidro
Mike Greenwell
Mark Grace
Hal Morris
Placido Polanco
Ralph Garr
Johnny Pesky
Matty Alou
Jackie Robinson

you are right.. nearly all of those under 300 players all had great gloves too.. and those over 300 guys were GREAT hitters.. but some simply cant do much else.. YOU NEED TO DO BOTH the be great.. the argument isn't whether dunn is in the top half of the league in overall ability.. he is.. but his deficiencies on offense and his massive problems on defense do not make him worth the money he will command, for a winning ball team.. you can be great at one thing horrid at the others.. but to be top 15 or 20 in the league money wise you need to do both above expectations or be nearly PERFECT at one.. obviously neither of those hold true about mr dunn..

take his teammate for example.. KGJ..
one of the best players of all time.. was a good/ almost great hitter.. but a GREAT fielder.. and soo put them together and you have a GREAT player..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 01:09 PM
I said it was better than all of the regulars. And the only guys with better ratios were part time players or players that spent signifigant time in the minor leagues. Guys like Conine and Javy didn't start very often and majority of their playing time was in pinch hit at bats. I'm feel confident in saying that if everyone on the Reds started all 162 games, only Hatteberg (maybe Jr) would come close to making less outs than Adam Dunn.

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 01:12 PM
I still can't believe that 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, 100 walks, and a +900 OPS are deficiencies in your book.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:14 PM
I said it was better than all of the regulars. And the only guys with better ratios were part time players or players that spent signifigant time in the minor leagues. Guys like Conine and Javy didn't start very often and majority of their playing time was in pinch hit at bats. I'm feel confident in saying that if everyone on the Reds started all 162 games, only Hatteberg (maybe Jr) would come close to making less outs than Adam Dunn.

well by that assessment there was only 2 regulars on the team.. soo you are right..

but he is still not worthy of top 20 players money, heck i think he is still outside the top 30 or so players in the league...

IowaRed
03-27-2008, 01:15 PM
you are right.. nearly all of those under 300 players all had great gloves too.. and those over 300 guys were GREAT hitters.. but some simply cant do much else.. YOU NEED TO DO BOTH the be great.. the argument isn't whether dunn is in the top half of the league in overall ability.. he is.. but his deficiencies on offense and his massive problems on defense do not make him worth the money he will command, for a winning ball team.. you can be great at one thing horrid at the others.. but to be top 15 or 20 in the league money wise you need to do both above expectations or be nearly PERFECT at one.. obviously neither of those hold true about mr dunn..

take his teammate for example.. KGJ..
one of the best players of all time.. was a good/ almost great hitter.. but a GREAT fielder.. and soo put them together and you have a GREAT player..

you have just called KGJ a good/almost great hitter and called the likes of Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Matty Alou great hitters.

That's all anybody should need to know

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:19 PM
I still can't believe that 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, 100 walks, and a +900 OPS are deficiencies in your book.


those arent..

but without the 180 k's..
16 career Sac Flies..
.222 Career BA with RISP..
.151 BA with 2 strikes..
and his absoultely horrid fielding..

we wouldnt be looking at him as a player.. just at a few stats..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 01:27 PM
those arent..

but without the 180 k's..
16 career Sac Flies..
.222 Career BA with RISP..
.151 BA with 2 strikes..
and his absoultely horrid fielding..

we wouldnt be looking at him as a player.. just at a few stats..


:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

You want to put sac flies and BA with RISP in the same categorie but they don't effect each other. Dunn can hit a sac fly bu his BA with RISP isn't effected, yet he still drove the run in. Is a sac fly better than a ground out to 2nd with a runner on 3rd? No, its still an out that resulted in a RBI but the sac fly doesn't effect your precious batting average.

I will give you defense, but that is it. Dunn is a top tier offensive player.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:27 PM
you have just called KGJ a good/almost great hitter and called the likes of Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco and Matty Alou great hitters.

That's all anybody should need to know

just because they don't hit many homers doesn't mean they aren't great hitters.. consistency goes along way in sports especially baseball.. if you have a career average over .300 you are a GREAT hitter.. I didn't say you were a great homerun masher.. but a great HITTER..

Cy young had more wins than anyone but he only averaged like 3 k's per 9 i guess he is no good..

OUReds
03-27-2008, 01:28 PM
so, if we look at Sac Flies, Ks, and BA, he's no good, but if we look at far, far more useful stats, he is? I'll take that.

Dunn ranked 18th in OPS last year, and 20th in RC27. would you at least agree that he is in the top 15-20 percentile of offensive players?

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:29 PM
top tier? if your tier is 40 players.. yes.. but otherwise he is second tier.. only know for his power..

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:29 PM
so, if we look at Sac Flies, Ks, and BA, he's no good, but if we look at far, far more useful stats, he is? I'll take that.

Dunn ranked 18th in OPS last year, and 20th in RC27. would you at least agree that he is in the top 15-20 percentile of offensive players?

top 20th percentile for offense.. yes.. i would even go top 12-15..

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:32 PM
but in MLB there are 30 teams.. each with about 15 position players.. soo you figure that is 450 position players in MLB.. top 15 or 20th percentile is only the top 68-90 players in the league in offense.. and his defense is definately in the bottom 20 percent.. he is probably in the bottom 10 percent for starters.. but many people sit on the bench int he elague to just be a good bat off the bench.. soo top 70 player on offense.. plus bottom 90 player on defense somehow constitutes a top 30 position player contract? i am lost..

IowaRed
03-27-2008, 01:34 PM
just because they don't hit many homers doesn't mean they aren't great hitters.. consistency goes along way in sports especially baseball.. if you have a career average over .300 you are a GREAT hitter.. I didn't say you were a great homerun masher.. but a great HITTER..

Cy young had more wins than anyone but he only averaged like 3 k's per 9 i guess he is no good..

I didn't say they weren't great hitters I was just pointing out the absurdity in many of your assertions.

You have to hit over .300 to be a great hitter.
You have to hit over .280 to be a good hitter
KGJ is not a great hitter but Juan Pierre is because he has a career ave. over .300

You realize that by calling Pierre great and Jr. near great you are saying that Pierre is a better hitter than JR, right? Try to find somebody that agrees with that one

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:42 PM
If you had to pick one or the other and it was the world series.. game 7.. tied.. bottom of 9 with bases loaded 2 outs.. while griffey has more power and such if I had both on my bench and could slot either one into the pitcher spot I would choose pierre..

pierre lifetime bases loaded.. .377 hitter..
griffey lifetime .331 hitter with bases loaded..

I would rather have griffey on my team to play because of his power because frankly they are almost a wash in the BA department.. but yes in a GAME 7 situation where ANY HIT would do... you have a better chance with pierre.. call me crazy.. but playing the odds I would win 5 more games out of 100 than you would..

they are completely different types of hitters.. but in the purest sense if you just need a hit.. yes pierre is slightly better..

OUReds
03-27-2008, 01:44 PM
but in MLB there are 30 teams.. each with about 15 position players.. soo you figure that is 450 position players in MLB.. top 15 or 20th percentile is only the top 68-90 players in the league in offense.. and his defense is definately in the bottom 20 percent.. he is probably in the bottom 10 percent for starters.. but many people sit on the bench int he elague to just be a good bat off the bench.. soo top 70 player on offense.. plus bottom 90 player on defense somehow constitutes a top 30 position player contract? i am lost..

Last year there were 160ish qualified batters. Let's stick to that.

Of the 17 players with a better OPS then Dunn, exactly three play a premium defensive position. Utley, Hanley Ramirez, and Posada. That number increases if you include 3rd basemen, but I don't. Frankly, you are worried way too much about left field defense. Hitters play hitter positions so they can hit.

If Dunn in LF is a top 15%ish offensive player, he is going to be paid as such.

757690
03-27-2008, 01:48 PM
The mere Fact that Juan Castro was brought into a statistics conversation concerning Adam Dunn PROVES the entire point for the pro-Dunn crowd.

If you don't know HOW the statistics were PRODUCED or APPLIED, then you have NO CLUE and shouldn't be using them.

By your "thought process" we should be putting Juan Castro higher in the lineup than Adam Dunn. Heck, might as well put him ahead of BP and KGJ while we're at it - he's our new Clean-Up hitter, because AGon should bat 3rd!!

I'm sure PLACEMENT IN THE LINEUP has NOTHING to do with hitting with RISP/MOB.

Statements like "you don't want your MOL guys "TAKING" walks" is about the most Absurd comment I've ever heard.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


First of all, Joe Sheheen of Baseball Prospectus, has echoed my exact thoughts, that you want your middle of the lineup guys to be sluggers, to get hits over walks. Anyone who "knows how stats are produced and applied", will understand that. The math is quite clear on this.
The proof in that is that all the good ones are pitched around or intentionally walked in crucial situations. Teams want them to walk, because they know that a walk in that situation will be less productive for the batting team than even the risk of a hit.

I want to add (again, for those who did not read or understand my point in other posts), that I am not saying that taking walks in that situation is "bad". It is just that you want your middle of the lineup sluggers to get more hits with men on base than walks. They will get their share of walks, due to their position in the lineup and their ability to hit the ball out of the park. But you want them to be getting hits instead of walks.


As for Castro and AGonzo, they put Dunn's stats into prospective. If you don't understand what that means, then I can't help you.

Castro (if in the lineup) and AGonzo would be the worst at getting with hits with MOB in a Reds lineup after Dunn and Ross, so if you are using this stat to help you decide where to bat hitters in the lineup, this stat would tell you to bat Dunn, Castro and Ross at the end of the lineup.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:51 PM
I am ok with him getting paid that money.. but not by the small market NL team.. yes they are small market, esp because they have all these young guys.. bruce.. bailey.. votto.. cueto.. phillips.. who is they pan out will all command more than 7 mil a year on the bottom end.. in 4 years.. so couple that with dunns 20 mil salary and you already have 55 mil between 6 players.. they must decide now.. either they go all youth and keep all the young guys they have.. or keep dunn and then in a few years either deal the young guys if they all pan out.. or let them walk.. either way.. they are not going to tie up 80 million in 6 players in cincinnati.. and have a winning ball club..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 01:54 PM
but yes in a GAME 7 situation where ANY HIT would do... you have a better chance with pierre.. call me crazy..


Crazy! :eek::eek::eek:

757690
03-27-2008, 01:55 PM
Obviously it's not fine if we are having this discussion. There isn't just 1 alternative to walks, you know that right? It's not walks or basehits. It could be base hits, K's, pop outs, DP's, etc. What you are basically saying is that Dunn isn't a slugger until he stops walking so much but a walk means that he's taking pitches OUT of the strike zone. Dunn can't control a pitcher's location, he can only react to it and for the last 4 years he's done that to the tune 40+ HR's and a serious avoidance of outs. I'll take walks any day over expanding one's zone and comfort level in an effort to live up to some absurd expectation.


There are other ways to decrease one's walk total without expanding the strikezone. Swinging at strikes earlier in the count is the best way. Dunn likes to go deep into the count, which is very rare for a slugger. Most sluggers, for reasons I have explained, like to be aggressive early in the count.
That is what Dunn himself has said he needs to do in order to help the team.

If he is successful at this, then I would love to sign him to a long term contract. Let's see how he does this year.

OUReds
03-27-2008, 01:57 PM
First of all, Joe Sheheen of Baseball Prospectus, has echoed my exact thoughts, that you want your middle of the lineup guys to be sluggers, to get hits over walks.

Source?

Ahhhorsepoo
03-27-2008, 01:57 PM
when he swings at the first pitch he is batting .394.. because usually pitchers want to get ahead of him..

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 01:59 PM
I am ok with him getting paid that money.. but not by the small market NL team.. yes they are small market, esp because they have all these young guys.. bruce.. bailey.. votto.. cueto.. phillips.. who is they pan out will all command more than 7 mil a year on the bottom end.. in 4 years.. so couple that with dunns 20 mil salary and you already have 55 mil between 6 players.. they must decide now.. either they go all youth and keep all the young guys they have.. or keep dunn and then in a few years either deal the young guys if they all pan out.. or let them walk.. either way.. they are not going to tie up 80 million in 6 players in cincinnati.. and have a winning ball club..

You have been brainwashed by Uncle Carl. Castellini realizes that a winning team makes money, regardless of where your city is located. If Castellini spends his money on productive players in order to keep a winning team on the field, then he will make money. The Reds get money from revenue sharing and they have new radio and TV deals. If the Reds win, the ballpark fills up and Castellini makes money. That is something the previous owner didn't care to realize. As long as the money is spent on productive players, and they don't overpay for declining veterans (see Mike Stanton) the Reds can be a very tough team for the next 5-6 years.

fugowitribe
03-27-2008, 02:01 PM
Sure he may strike out alot, but when he hits goodbye. Hes also an excellent outfielder. We really need to keep him.

HUH?!

Nasty_Boy
03-27-2008, 02:05 PM
First of all, Joe Sheheen of Baseball Prospectus, has echoed my exact thoughts, that you want your middle of the lineup guys to be sluggers, to get hits over walks.


Of course, you would rather have them get hits. They have your highest slugging percentage and collect more XBH. The problem is people want Dunn to expand his zone, but in doing so he increases his chances of making an out.

I will say this, if the bases are loaded with less than 2 outs late in a tie/1 run game then I have no problem with Dunn swinging early and often in order to hit the elusive sac fly. But the bases loaded or 1st and 3rd situation is the only situation that Dunn will be pitched to and not around.

757690
03-27-2008, 02:19 PM
Source?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7201

"Get your best hitters the most plate appearances
Guys who get on base should bat in front of guys who hit for power
Within reason, separate same-side hitters, to make life hard for platoon-centric managers"

Basically he is saying that you want you want the guys who are hitting with MOB to be sluggers, not patient hitters.

and just to for emphasis, here is a quote from Bill James about the value of walks and hits.


http://seamheads.com/blog/2008/03/12/when-dusty-baker-starts-chanelling-bill-james/

Ive always thought that if I were in a position to do so, Id be very reluctant to try to tell players to take walks, even though I know how valuable walks are, because Id be afraid it would make the players less aggressive at the plate.

OUReds
03-27-2008, 02:27 PM
Thanks, I had actually read that Sheehan article before. It's basicaly Sheehan spitballing though, there's no real math or evidence involved in the article. I'd be very hesitant to make the conclusions you seem to have from the article (namely that Dunn is not a good middle of the lineup hitter).

Especially since Dunn does indeed hit for power with men on base. I very much suspect that Sheehan would put Dunn in the 3 hole and be glad to do so.

Ed Otten
03-27-2008, 02:53 PM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7201

"Get your best hitters the most plate appearances
Guys who get on base should bat in front of guys who hit for power
Within reason, separate same-side hitters, to make life hard for platoon-centric managers"

Basically he is saying that you want you want the guys who are hitting with MOB to be sluggers, not patient hitters.

and just to for emphasis, here is a quote from Bill James about the value of walks and hits.


http://seamheads.com/blog/2008/03/12/when-dusty-baker-starts-chanelling-bill-james/

Ive always thought that if I were in a position to do so, Id be very reluctant to try to tell players to take walks, even though I know how valuable walks are, because Id be afraid it would make the players less aggressive at the plate.

I don't think that is the only interpretation of the bolded comment.

Your interpretation (as you said) seems to be that "Power hitters are hitters that are not patient." I would assume this means that they don't walk a whole lot and strike out a lot, but hit a lot of XBH (especially home runs).

My interpretation is that "Power hitters are hitters that hit more of the balls that they do hit for XBH (especially homers) than non-power hitters." This doesn't mean that they can't walk a lot, and it doesn't mean they have to strike out a lot. It just means that whatever they hit, they hit hard and far more of the time.

Your interpretation compares power hitters to non-power hitters as a difference in approach (patient versus inpatient), while my interpretation compares them as a difference in result (less XBH versus more XBH).

Both types of players can take walks, hit singles, and hit XBH. They can both have high OBP. The difference (for me) is the likelyhood of XBH versus non-XBH.

Last year, according to Baseball America (and if my math is right), Hatteberg hit 33% (38/112) of his hits for XB. Dunn hit 50%(69/138) of his hits for XB. This to me means that Dunn is a better power hitter than Hatteberg, and therefore (other players excluded) it would be better for Hatteberg to hit in front of Dunn.

Ed

BLEEDS
03-27-2008, 03:11 PM
You have been brainwashed by Uncle Carl. Castellini realizes that a winning team makes money, regardless of where your city is located. If Castellini spends his money on productive players in order to keep a winning team on the field, then he will make money. The Reds get money from revenue sharing and they have new radio and TV deals. If the Reds win, the ballpark fills up and Castellini makes money. That is something the previous owner didn't care to realize. As long as the money is spent on productive players, and they don't overpay for declining veterans (see Mike Stanton) the Reds can be a very tough team for the next 5-6 years.

:thumbup::notworthy


Of course, you would rather have them get hits. They have your highest slugging percentage and collect more XBH. The problem is people want Dunn to expand his zone, but in doing so he increases his chances of making an out.

I will say this, if the bases are loaded with less than 2 outs late in a tie/1 run game then I have no problem with Dunn swinging early and often in order to hit the elusive sac fly. But the bases loaded or 1st and 3rd situation is the only situation that Dunn will be pitched to and not around.

Especially when he's batting 5th or 6th in the lineup with the *cough* quality *cough* hitters we've been putting behind him the past couple years. It's a MIRACLE of no small proportion that he's been able to get ~100 RBI's on a consistent basis.

IMO, Dunn is NOT put in the "Middle of the Lineup" situations, as he SHOULD - put him 2/3/4, and put KGJ/Bruce/Votto/EE(when/if he ever "gets it") and see how often he gets "pitched around".

ONE of the BIGGEST reasons he gets pitched around, as I've noted before, is because THEY CAN do it, and GET AWAY with it - and face EE/AGon/Castro/Catcher DuJour

From the ORG:
"I'm watching the Tigers/Phillies game on Fox Sports Detroit. The announcers were interiewing Jim Leyland and asked him why he chose to bat Gary Sheffield 3rd in the lineup over Cabrera. His answer was because Sheffield has the highest career OBP in the lineup and he wants to give Cabrera and Ordonez more RBI opportunities. What a smart guy."

There's somebody that GETS IT, and what do you know, he was Manager of the Year and turned the Tigers around.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-27-2008, 03:42 PM
"Get your best hitters the most plate appearances
Guys who get on base should bat in front of guys who hit for power

Basically he is saying that you want you want the guys who are hitting with MOB to be sluggers, not patient hitters.


That's a pretty obtuse interpretation of those general statements.

Next define what you think a "slugger" is. Apparently you want it to be someone who is AGGRESSIVE, early in the count. That is going to lead to lower BA, more K's, and less walks. Seems your goal is intent upon Raising two BAD things to lower one GOOD thing.

By the way Dunn is in the group of "best hitters", is in the group of "guys who get on base" and is in the group of "guys who hit for power". SO, where should a guy like that be put in the lineup? I'm guessing 5 is not the most ideal spot...

Now how about Brandon Phillips? Looks to me like he best fits your "slugger" mentality. Guy can't take a walk to save his life, which to you is a good thing apparently. He also is THIRD in the ENTIRE MLB in hitting into double plays. SO, not only is he not "Clogging up the Bases", in most cases he is CLEARING THEM UP entirely. And his career "Slugging" Percentage is a mere 100 points lower than Mister Dunns, and OBP about 75 pts. Seems THIS GUY is better suited to 5/6/7 in the lineup, no?

For the life of me, I can't figure out why BP bats ahead of EE, let alone Dunn. Except for what appears to be an extreme outlier of 30 HR's last year, EE still managed to out-hit and out-OBP him, and has had a more consistent SLG until last year. So WHO'S the anamoly? I guess we'll find out.

I would love for someone to run a stats comparison with lineups of the following:

3-Dunn
4-EE
5-Junior
6-BP

versus

3-KGJ
4-BP
5-Dunn
6-EE

Why we would "split up" Junior and Dunn with an out-machine/DP-machine like BP is beyond me.

There's a lot of good comps to do with MOB/RISP between these guys in 2007, the results might startle you. FYI/FWIW, Dunn hit over HALF of his Homers with MOB, nobody else was even close.

You guys are too busy looking at stats in a vacuum instead of looking at the whole picture. There's a reason why people would rather pitch to BP than just about anyone else with MOB/RISP, and giving him 60+ ABs in that situation over these other guys is almost UNFATHOMABLE.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfanmia
03-27-2008, 06:16 PM
Thanks, I had actually read that Sheehan article before. It's basicaly Sheehan spitballing though, there's no real math or evidence involved in the article. I'd be very hesitant to make the conclusions you seem to have from the article (namely that Dunn is not a good middle of the lineup hitter).

Especially since Dunn does indeed hit for power with men on base. I very much suspect that Sheehan would put Dunn in the 3 hole and be glad to do so.

If the guys from Baseball Prospectus really knew anything they would be working for a baseball team.

Ahhhorsepoo
03-28-2008, 09:08 AM
reds fan is right.. people in front offices ALWAYS know what they are doing.....

NolaRed
03-29-2008, 06:15 PM
John says Dunn came to the Reds "almost at the exact time I took over the beat in July 2001". John might be a "nice guy". Dunn might be a "nice guy". Reds have been a sub .500 baseball team for 7 years. You connect the dots.

Maybe just get rid of Fay then?