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UPRedsFan
03-24-2008, 10:06 PM
I wonder if this will be the question for Dusty to answer this year as opposed to Kepp vs. Gonzo at SS.

If the game is on the line, who would you rather have coming to the plate? Kepp or EE?

If EE doesn't get himself going quickly while Gonzo is still out, Kepp may move to 3b when Gonzo is ready to come back. That gives Dusty Gonzo's defense and keeps Keppinger's bat in the line up. EE can play against LHP when Kepp moves to 1B.

Rounding Third
03-24-2008, 10:10 PM
Its spring training. You remember EdE's Spring last year?

mlbfan30
03-24-2008, 10:10 PM
EE is a good hitter... The problem is that people always mess with him and say he isn't good enough. Spring Training Stats Don't Matter

AmarilloRed
03-24-2008, 10:21 PM
EE is a good hitter... The problem is that people always mess with him and say he isn't good enough. Spring Training Stats Don't Matter

You should put that in your signature; at some point you will explain why they don't matter. It is true enough for veteran players, not so much for young players and veterans looking to earn a roster spot like Andy Phillips.

BUTLER REDSFAN
03-24-2008, 10:27 PM
I know this is far fetched but i think Edwin could just need 3-4 days off straight...he played winter ball and I'm not sure how long that lasts but maybe he is exhausted????Give him till Fri or Saturday off to do nothing but relax then have him play in their last ST game.

roby
03-25-2008, 12:19 AM
Edwin is far more valuable than he gets credit for. I love keppinger...but i would NEVER replace Edwin for any extended period of time with Kepp. I truly hope this is the year that EE puts it all together and dismantles NL pitching. His glove seems to be much improved.

mlbfan30
03-25-2008, 02:36 AM
The stats do not indicate performance. Just because someone is doing bad doesn't mean they will do bad when it matter. By picking Kepp over EE at 3rd because of 30-40 ST at bats, its making a huge mistake. When you see managers take inferior players on the team because they got a hot start, how many times are they actually going to help? Is Castro really going to hit .300? It's been studied a lot over the years as to how ST stats affect stats in the regular season, and there is zero correlation, which the exception of a small correlation with hitting .200pts higher in SLG over career norm. That's it. You can look at mechanics and conditioning, control, or movement on pitches or fundamentals. There's a whole bunch of stuff that is important in ST, but the stats themselves aren't. Any player can go 4/4 and suddenly have good to great stats. Are the previous struggles gone just because they got lucky? There's also more to that such as unbalanced rosters, getting timing down, dealing with soreness from a long break, etc.

UPRedsFan
03-25-2008, 10:54 AM
I understand spring stats don't count for veterans. Notice I didn't say Castro should start over Edwin because of spring stats.

I am suggesting that if Edwin has a slow start in April and continues to look like he did last night (flailing at breaking pitches low and away and strolling back to the bench) then Kepp should stay in the lineup and take his spot when AGon returns.

I'm not just looking at spring training, I'm looking at 300 or so ab's for Keppinger last year. Based on last years numbers, I'd rather have Keppinger at the plate in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position than I would Edwin. Can you honestly say you'd rather see Edwin at the plate in that situation?

Rounding Third
03-25-2008, 11:23 AM
Personally I would rather have Kepp than Gonzo.

durl
03-25-2008, 11:35 AM
I'd rather have Keppinger at the plate and Gonzalez in the field. Since that's not possible, I lean toward Gonzo as the SS because he's better defensively. While his defense wasn't the best last year, he had good reason to be distracted.

The Reds have plenty of offense...they lose games when they're on the field, either from errors or poor pitching. Hopefully the pitching problems will be much diminished this year. I can't help but think that "Gonzalez vs Keppinger" wouldn't be that big of an issue if some of the other players were more consistent at the plate.

I have to admit, though, that I really like having Keppinger on the team and don't see how you keep such a consistent hitter on the bench. Tough decision, to be sure.

justincredible
03-25-2008, 12:11 PM
I understand spring stats don't count for veterans. Notice I didn't say Castro should start over Edwin because of spring stats.

I am suggesting that if Edwin has a slow start in April and continues to look like he did last night (flailing at breaking pitches low and away and strolling back to the bench) then Kepp should stay in the lineup and take his spot when AGon returns.

I'm not just looking at spring training, I'm looking at 300 or so ab's for Keppinger last year. Based on last years numbers, I'd rather have Keppinger at the plate in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs and a runner in scoring position than I would Edwin. Can you honestly say you'd rather see Edwin at the plate in that situation?

Kepp and EdE were almost identical in that situation last season (RISP w/2 out, not bottom of the 9th). EdE drove in the run 43% of the time and Kepp 44% of the time.

UPRedsFan
03-25-2008, 02:35 PM
Kepp and EdE were almost identical in that situation last season (RISP w/2 out, not bottom of the 9th). EdE drove in the run 43% of the time and Kepp 44% of the time.

Interesting in RBI situations. But on the whole, Kepp OPS'd .877 in 241 AB's and EE was just under .800

If I'm Dusty and Edwin's struggling in April, and Keppinger continues to hit, then Keppinger moves to 3B when Gonzalez returns.

Johnny Cueto
03-26-2008, 07:19 PM
There's no way kepp replaces EE, he's too valuable to be on the bench. If Kepp would start over anyone it would be gonzo. Dusty could be tempted if gonzo goes back to his career numbers, and kepp continues to hit like he did last year.

Rounding Third
03-27-2008, 04:52 PM
There's no way kepp replaces EE, he's too valuable to be on the bench. If Kepp would start over anyone it would be gonzo. Dusty could be tempted if gonzo goes back to his career numbers, and kepp continues to hit like he did last year.

Agreed. I really love Kepp as a #2 hitter that gets on base a lot and sets the table for the middle of the lineup.

I would expect a high OBP again from Kepp, which can't be said for Gonzalez.

UPRedsFan
03-27-2008, 05:39 PM
2 more hits today. He has not wavered from last season one bit.

Keppinger must get 400+ AB's. Maybe Dusty should buy him a catchers mitt!

gedred69
03-27-2008, 07:05 PM
Tough one for me. EE has tremendous ability to drive in runs. And how can anyone not want Kepp' in the line-up? Everyone in baseball has noticed he is the perverbial "professional hitter". Even SI referred to him as a "singles machine". This is the year for EE to prove to be what he can be. A line-drive hitting run producer. How do you play them both, when we really need Gonzo's glove at SS? Someone else posted that earlier, Reds lost last year on defense (and the relief corp).

Rounding Third
03-27-2008, 07:17 PM
In John Erardi's articles a couple sundays ago the question was raised whether or not Alex Gonzalez's glove can make up for the offensive difference between him and Keppinger. The answer was no.

Fact is though the Reds are stuck with paying Gonzalez for 2 more years. I really love Keppinger and he is a guy that will work the count and get on base whether it is through base hits or walks. I also like Edwin who is improving on defense and needs to have some right handed pop in a predominately left handed lineup.

There are too many "ifs" in all of this. If Edwin doesn't produce, if Keppinger does, if Gonzalez struggles, and so on. For right now Keppinger is our starting shortstop since Gonzalez is heading to the DL. Down the line when he comes back the situation can be completely different. I don't want to have to choose between Keppinger and Edwin right now. Everyone knows what Edwin can do, but once again its "if" he does do it.

gedred69
03-27-2008, 10:29 PM
In John Erardi's articles a couple sundays ago the question was raised whether or not Alex Gonzalez's glove can make up for the offensive difference between him and Keppinger. The answer was no.

Fact is though the Reds are stuck with paying Gonzalez for 2 more years. I really love Keppinger and he is a guy that will work the count and get on base whether it is through base hits or walks. I also like Edwin who is improving on defense and needs to have some right handed pop in a predominately left handed lineup.

There are too many "ifs" in all of this. If Edwin doesn't produce, if Keppinger does, if Gonzalez struggles, and so on. For right now Keppinger is our starting shortstop since Gonzalez is heading to the DL. Down the line when he comes back the situation can be completely different. I don't want to have to choose between Keppinger and Edwin right now. Everyone knows what Edwin can do, but once again its "if" he does do it.

Understand. I should add that I hope EE doesn't turn out to be another Danny Driessen. Don't know if you remember him, but he had all the talent in the world, but was too dumb to use it and amount to anything.