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View Full Version : SI predicts Reds win 87 games



fearofpopvol1
03-25-2008, 04:13 PM
Originally posted in the Sundeck.

Here's the link: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2008/previews/index.html?eref=T1


CENTRAL
1 Chicago Cubs 91 71 --
2 Cincinnati Reds 87 75 4.0
3 Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 6.0
4 Houston Astros 74 88 17.0
5 St. Louis Cardinals 73 89 18.0
6 Pittsburgh Pirates 70 92 21.0

redsfan30
03-25-2008, 04:20 PM
I think 87 wins puts you closer than four games back.

Matt700wlw
03-25-2008, 04:26 PM
So do I...if a few things fall their way, it could be enough to win the Central

Crosley68
03-25-2008, 04:29 PM
With that starting staff there is no way cubbies win 91 games.

fearofpopvol1
03-25-2008, 04:29 PM
What's more interesting is that SI is projecting the Reds will lose the wild card by 1 game to the Dbacks.

Highlifeman21
03-25-2008, 04:32 PM
Has SI seen our options for our 25 man roster?

WMR
03-25-2008, 04:33 PM
LOL @ the Scrubs winning 91 games.

klw
03-25-2008, 04:41 PM
I think it is nice that they have both the two leagues splitting the interleague games evenly. (Both leagues average 81-81 so both must win equally against each other)

Cyclone792
03-25-2008, 04:53 PM
Interesting that the various projection systems have the Reds anywhere from 73 wins (lowest) to only 80 wins (highest).

My own take was 83 wins, as posted in GL's predictions thread.

I'm not sure how SI comes up with their projections, but I obviously hope their best guess is the one that happens, even if it's not as realistic as some others.

TRF
03-25-2008, 05:23 PM
Too much unknown quantities in the rotation. Essentially 2 rookies, and could be three If Bailey leapfrogs Belisle and Fogg pitches like... well Josh Fogg.

The offense is also something of an unknown. EE needs to have a complete year. Votto is starting to heat up (thank God) Patterson is a crapshoot, how will Kepp at SS fare? Is his bat for real? And of course health is an issue.

The Reds are certainly an interesting group this year.

MrCinatit
03-25-2008, 05:24 PM
I'd rather they win 78 games and (somehow) make it to the post season, rather than win 87 games and sit at home. Of course, 87 wins would be an improvement.
From the looks of it, SI has been pulled into the seductive siren song of Baker than most Reds fans.

redsrule2500
03-25-2008, 09:55 PM
Crazy thing is I could see them being much worse or much better!!!!!!

This season is such an unknown one.

*BaseClogger*
03-25-2008, 09:56 PM
just some Dusty lovin'

reds44
03-25-2008, 10:28 PM
It would be so painful for the Reds to win 87 games and not make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have that then another sub .500 season, but it would tear my heart out.

Matt700wlw
03-25-2008, 10:30 PM
I'd rather they win 78 games and (somehow) make it to the post season, rather than win 87 games and sit at home. Of course, 87 wins would be an improvement.
From the looks of it, SI has been pulled into the seductive siren song of Baker than most Reds fans.

Seeing as the first is impossible (the day it happens is the day baseball needs to re-evaluate itself moreso than it needs to now)...I'll take my chances with the second

Highlifeman21
03-25-2008, 11:36 PM
It would be so painful for the Reds to win 87 games and not make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have that then another sub .500 season, but it would tear my heart out.

Flip the 8 and the 7, and you get how many wins the Reds will have in 2008.

87? Optimistic.


78? Now we're talkin'.



And, should the Cubs actually make the WS before the Reds do again, let alone win it, while I might think I'm heartbroken, it would be more accurately described as utter disgust and disdain.

Ron Madden
03-26-2008, 05:20 AM
It would be so painful for the Reds to win 87 games and not make the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I'd much rather have that then another sub .500 season, but it would tear my heart out.

I enjoyed the 1999 season more than the 1990 season.

I did very much enjoy the 1990 post season though. :)

The last series of the 1999 season vs. the Brewers and the one game playoff vs. the Mets broke my heart. :(

camisadelgolf
03-26-2008, 05:55 AM
Last year, I believe there was a writer who predicted the Reds to win the NL Central. It's one of the few publications that doesn't annually jip the Reds in pre-season rankings. If that writer isn't fired yet, I think that could explain the favorable prediction.

If everyone is healthy and does what's expected of them, I think 87 wins is about right, but it's very rare that that happens. Last year, the Cubs won only 85 games with what may turn out turn out to be fluke years from Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis, and Ted Lilly. I'm not sure why they think the Cubs will win 91 games. I guess they're just predicting a friendly pythagorean record.

I think the Cardinals prediction is interesting and 2008 will show how little difference there is between Dusty Baker and Tony LaRussa, despite what a baseball idiot Dusty Baker is.

Edskin
03-26-2008, 09:18 AM
I. :)

The last series of the 1999 season vs. the Brewers :(

Marquis *%*&%*&% Grissom!

redsrule2500
03-26-2008, 09:20 AM
I still can't believe we won 96 games and missed the playoffs :( SO SICK

KronoRed
03-26-2008, 12:53 PM
I think 87 wins puts you closer than four games back.

Last year maybe, but I think the Central is going to be a lot better this year.

Roy Tucker
03-26-2008, 12:59 PM
From SI...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/specials/spring_training/2008/previews/reds.html




"Young starters are the reason they could make the jump the Rockies did last year."

For more than 20 years now the Reds have been waiting for the next Mario Soto. Not since the hard-throwing righthander anchored the rotation in the early- to mid-1980s has the pitching-bereft franchise produced a homegrown ace. Early one morning in spring training, however, as he watched a pair of Reds-bred prospects, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, hum fastballs from adjacent mounds, Soto himself sounded convinced that the wait was over. "They are future aces, two guys you build a team around," said Soto, at 51, a Reds pitching instructor, "but we're not talking about them making an impact two, three years from now. We're talking about now."

Since relocating to Great American Ball Park in 2003, the club has lived by the long ball (Cincinnati and the Yankees are the only teams to hit 200 home runs each of the last three seasons) and whiffed on free-agent pitchers, such as $25 million bust Eric Milton. But Cincinnati's nucleus of young major-league-ready starters -- Bailey, 21; Cueto, 22; and righthander Edinson Volquez, 24, (acquired from Texas for outfielder Josh Hamilton) -- is the reason the Reds could make the big jump that the Rockies took last year.

Cueto was the biggest revelation in camp. As part of a renewed commitment to international scouting, which was virtually nonexistent for a decade, Cincinnati signed the 5' 10" righthander as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2004. After blowing through three minor league levels last season, his third as a pro, Cueto quickly became the subject of infomercial-like testimonials in his first big league camp. "The way he throws changeups, with the same arm speed as his 98-mph fastball, it's like Pedro Martinez out there," says catcher Javier Valentin.

Offered Phillies outfielder Geoff Jenkins, after facing Cueto in an exhibition game, "Great poise too. We're going to be hearing from him a lot."

Similar enthusiasm was heaped upon Bailey last year, but after dominating at Triple A Louisville early on, Bailey stumbled through a rocky four months in the majors. He had only one quality start in nine appearances; suffered a pulled hamstring that took 5 to 7 mph off his fastball; and earned a reputation for being aloof in the clubhouse. This year is different, though, say teammates. "Last year he was scared to throw all his pitches," says Valentin. "But the difference is his changeup -- he'll throw it anytime now."

How new manager Dusty Baker handles his young hurlers will be closely scrutinized. Criticized as skipper of the Cubs for his overuse of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, Baker also has a reputation for favoring experience over youth; he appears to be committed to Cueto and Volquez -- a righty with a mid-90s fastball -- in a rotation anchored by veterans Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. Meanwhile, Bailey could start the season in Louisville, but he'll be in the bigs by the summer.

The bullpen has a new closer, Francisco Cordero, 32, a free agent whom the Reds overpaid in giving him a four-year, $46 million contract in the off-season. Still, he instantly improves a group that blew 28 saves last season.

With the inevitable arrival this summer of two top hitting prospects, rightfielder Jay Bruce and first baseman Joey Votto, the Reds should also see an improvement in run production. Last year Votto vowed not to watch any Reds games -- or even highlights -- until he made it to the Show because he wanted to see Great American Ball Park for the first time in person. He hit .294 with 22 home runs and 92 RBIs in 133 games in Louisville, then went 3 for 3 with a home run in his first start in Cincinnati on Sept. 4. "It was great to get my feet wet a bit," says Votto, who hit .321 and slugged .548 during his 24-game stint. "But I'm looking forward to making a regular impact on the team."

For Votto and the rest of the young Reds, that time has come. -- Albert Chen

Issue date: March 31, 2008




THE NUMBERS LIE | DON'T LIE

32
Stolen bases by second baseman Brandon Phillips, a strikingly high number considering he also hit into 26 double plays -- tied for the third most in the majors last year. Phillips became the first NL player to account for as many as 30 steals and 25 double plays in the same season. Only two AL players, the Royals' John Wathan (36 steals, 26 double plays in 1982) and the White Sox' Ivan Calderon (32, 26 in '90), have done it.

CONSIDER THIS
The pairing of veteran-friendly manager Dusty Baker with a roster of high-ceiling rookies, like the Reds', is a curious one, but there can be no doubt here: Cincinnati should start the season with Jay Bruce as its everyday centerfielder and Joey Votto as the regular first baseman. Bruce, who turns 21 on April 3, is the best prospect in the game; he has excellent gap power that will translate into higher home run totals as he gets older. Votto, 24, inexplicably criticized by Baker in early March for not swinging enough, has done just fine with his patient approach; he hit .289 with a .385 OBP and a .476 slugging percentage in the minors and .321/.360/.548 in a brief '07 call-up. Every day these two players spend out of the Reds' lineup -- or in the minors -- jeopardizes an intriguing team's chances to play in October

coachw513
03-26-2008, 02:42 PM
It's been a long time since it was fun to look at the SI preview and not be depressed about the upcoming season...87 is IMHO the "everything possible goes right" type of number, but even that number has gone up from previous seasons...

Redhook
03-26-2008, 09:51 PM
If the '99 team can win 96 games this team can certainly win 87 games. I'm still sticking with 85 wins. I hope for more, but I'm confident the Reds will be good this year.

OldXOhio
03-26-2008, 09:52 PM
Has SI seen our options for our 25 man roster?


Has SI seen Thom's idea for our OF if Junior and Dunn need a night off against lefties?

jojo
03-26-2008, 10:02 PM
87 wins seems pretty optimistic.

paintmered
03-26-2008, 10:12 PM
I'll have what SI is having...

camisadelgolf
03-26-2008, 10:25 PM
I'll have what SI is having...

Me, too.
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