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View Full Version : What kind of seasons do you see Cueto/Volquez having?



OnBaseMachine
03-27-2008, 11:02 PM
With all the hype surrounding Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez going into the 2008 season, I was just curious what kind of numbers Redszoners think they will put up this season? I personally think both are going to have huge seasons for us. We Reds fans are due for some luck.

2008 Johnny Cueto prediction

180 innings
155 strikeouts
3.45 ERA

Wins the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year award.

2008 Edinson Volquez prediction

195 innings
205 strikeouts
3.30 ERA

Volquez is considered one of the better starting pitchers in the league by the end of the season. Volquez takes a similar path to that of Jose Rijo - a young pitcher with brillant stuff who struggled with command early in his career until he was traded to the Reds and really took off in 1988. Only this time it will be 2008.

By the end of the season the Reds rotation is viewed as one of the top rotations in the game with Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo and ar widely considered as the favorites to win the NL Central in 2009.

RedsManRick
03-27-2008, 11:11 PM
What the heck, let's be optimistic.

Cueto
28 starts
170 innings
145 strikeouts
3.75 ERA
1.26 WHIP

Volquez
32 starts
192 innings
180 strikeouts
4.40 ERA
1.38 WHIP

Caveat Emperor
03-27-2008, 11:16 PM
I'd honestly be thrilled to get a full season of league-average ball from one of the two. I'd be beyond shocked if they both posted better than league-average stats for the year.

Ga_Red
03-27-2008, 11:47 PM
OK,
1)if the Reds have sewed up the 8th and 9th innings, with Stormy and Coco, and I believe they have; and
2) If JB is lights out in 2008 like he was late 2007;
3) my bet is that the kiddos combined, have as many wins as AH and BA do, together, at years end, say 26.
4) I would not be in the least surprised to see either one or both of these kids with a shot for 20 going into the last month of the season.
How's that for going out on a limb?::eek:

*BaseClogger*
03-28-2008, 01:17 AM
I see Cueto having a rookie season similar to Yovani Gallardo's last season with the Brewers, of course Cueto will start the season with the big league club. For Volquez, I would say a season similar to Dustin McGowan's 2007, except less ground balls...

Screwball
03-28-2008, 01:31 AM
Well, I've been reading that we have Pedro Martinez and Mario Soto on our hands, so 1.46 and 2.91 FIPs, respectively, sounds about right. :cool:

KronoRed
03-28-2008, 01:50 AM
ERA's in the mid 4's, some truly great and truly awful stretches of starts.

They will be as rookies usually are.

Jpup
03-28-2008, 01:53 AM
ERA's in the mid 4's, some truly great and truly awful stretches of starts.

They will be as rookies usually are.

excellent post. To assume an ERA below 4 is a huge mistake IMO.

WVRedsFan
03-28-2008, 02:06 AM
I tend to be very optimistic at this point--just before Opening Day, but I cannot see either pitcher putting up sub-4.00 ERA's. Just as I posted some time ago, what do Spring Training stats mean, the same is true with these guys.

I have to hope that they do well and help the club, but I think there will be rough spots and troulbes and trials. I have to hope they both win 20 (which I don't think anyone on this staff will), but feel like if they just get the team to the 6th inning with a lead or close, they will have done their jobs.

This team still has many holes to fill. We still do not know who will be the regular first baseman and shortsop is a question mark. We apparently have Corey Patterson in center field with his sub-.300 OBP. Griffey is aging and the catcher spot is even a bigger question mark. Offense and defense will play a bigger part in the two younster's win-loss and ERA stats than how well they pitch.

Not to throw a wet blanket on the feel good sentiment here, but let's wait a couple of months before we start printing playoff tickets. If Harang and Arroyo couldn't win 20 and have ERA's in the 3.50 range over the last two seasons, I'm pretty sure these kids won't.

Patrick Bateman
03-28-2008, 02:40 AM
I think Volquez is going to jump on the radar quickly. He looks awesome so far. I think an ERA between 3.50-3.75 is attainable right off the bat. Cueto I see as being less ready... Volquez does have some development on him. He'll have his good and bat, but like most young guys... quite inconsistent. I'd be pleased if he could post a slightly above average ERA (4.20-4.30ish), but I could see him having some rough spots.

mth123
03-28-2008, 04:51 AM
I think Volquez is going to jump on the radar quickly. He looks awesome so far. I think an ERA between 3.50-3.75 is attainable right off the bat. Cueto I see as being less ready... Volquez does have some development on him. He'll have his good and bat, but like most young guys... quite inconsistent. I'd be pleased if he could post a slightly above average ERA (4.20-4.30ish), but I could see him having some rough spots.

This is how I see it as well. Volquez is ready to make the next step. Not sure if that means an ERA below 4 like many have predicted, but I think that he'll be this team's clear number 2 starter by season's end. I agree with your assessment of Cueto.

remdog
03-28-2008, 06:44 AM
Someone elsewhere (Rick, possibly) made the comment that during ST stats guys seem to talk about observation and observation guys tend to talk about stats. I don't know if that's true or not but, either way, I tend to disregard the numbers in ST. After all, with guys like Dunn, Jr., Harang, etc. you pretty much know what you're going to get. With guys like Keppinger (as a starter), Votto, etc. you're moving into unknown territory.

Both Volquez and Cueto fall into the latter bracket. And, since I've never seen either one pitch, I'm going off of reports---reports that say that both of them have exceptional pitches and a good makeup. The numbers that exsist for them in ST are exceptional------but they are a small sample and they are what all ST numbers are, compiled outside of the norm that is MLB once the bell rings.

Having said that I'm optomistic that at least one of them (and prayfully both) will blossom and establish themselves as guys that we will watch for the next ten years and think that they will be favored over 90% of the opponents' pitchers everytime they take the mound.

For '08, I'd be thrilled if we get 10-12 wins out of each of them, ERA's in the 4.30- 4.50 range and 350 innings from the two of them.

Based on the reports of their 'stuff', these are the kind of guys that make it fun to go to the park and see exactly what they can do. But they are both young and there are gonna' be days where they don't have their best stuff and it's gonna' be a learning curve as they learn how to win when they are out there with less than their best. And, they are gonna' make mistakes from time to time. And, this being the bigs, they are gonna' be facing guys that can, from time to time, take their best stuff and put in the seats. It happens. And seeing how they deal with it and adjust to it will be a big step in just how far they take their careers.

I pretty much wrote off '08 as a year that the Reds contend when they declined to follow through with their upgrade mode and failed to land a 3rd proven starter. The flip side of that is that I think the fact that the Reds are, apparently, willing to hand the ball to two young guys every fifth day bodes well for 2009. In that respect, the Reds may already be beginning a run for the '09 division title next Monday.

Rem

membengal
03-28-2008, 07:56 AM
Sure, I'll play:

Volquez: 4.17 ERA 1.34 WHIP 173 Ks 190 innings
Cueto: 4.68 ERA 1.41 WHIP 130 Ks 150 innings

And I would be thrilled if either of those came true.

redsrule2500
03-28-2008, 08:23 AM
Volquez and Cueto both underpeform expectations, after a fantastic first few starts. Their ERAs shoot into the high 5's and are eventually both sent back down to Louisville and Homer is brought up to replace them, along with Belisle.

VR
03-28-2008, 08:27 AM
With all the hype surrounding Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez going into the 2008 season, I was just curious what kind of numbers Redszoners think they will put up this season? I personally think both are going to have huge seasons for us. We Reds fans are due for some luck.

2008 Johnny Cueto prediction

180 innings
155 strikeouts
3.45 ERA

Wins the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year award.

2008 Edinson Volquez prediction

195 innings
205 strikeouts
3.30 ERA

Volquez is considered one of the better starting pitchers in the league by the end of the season. Volquez takes a similar path to that of Jose Rijo - a young pitcher with brillant stuff who struggled with command early in his career until he was traded to the Reds and really took off in 1988. Only this time it will be 2008.

By the end of the season the Reds rotation is viewed as one of the top rotations in the game with Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo and ar widely considered as the favorites to win the NL Central in 2009.

the Reds win the central in a runaway if this happens. And I'm ok w/ that.

jojo
03-28-2008, 08:46 AM
With all the hype surrounding Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez going into the 2008 season, I was just curious what kind of numbers Redszoners think they will put up this season? I personally think both are going to have huge seasons for us. We Reds fans are due for some luck.

2008 Johnny Cueto prediction

180 innings
155 strikeouts
3.45 ERA

Wins the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year award.

2008 Edinson Volquez prediction

195 innings
205 strikeouts
3.30 ERA

Volquez is considered one of the better starting pitchers in the league by the end of the season. Volquez takes a similar path to that of Jose Rijo - a young pitcher with brillant stuff who struggled with command early in his career until he was traded to the Reds and really took off in 1988. Only this time it will be 2008.

By the end of the season the Reds rotation is viewed as one of the top rotations in the game with Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo and ar widely considered as the favorites to win the NL Central in 2009.

Do they finish 1 and 2 in the CY voting?

OnBaseMachine
03-28-2008, 10:38 AM
Obviously I'm the only one drinking the kool-aid at this point. ;) Hey, it's that time of the year, do you really expect me to not be optimistic?

Though Krivsky is trying his best to dampen my enthusiasm with his horrible roster mismanagement.

RedEye
03-29-2008, 06:28 PM
Cueto: 9-8, 4.75 ERA, 135 K in 150 IP
Volquez: 10-6, 4.50 ERA, 150 K in 185 IP