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Far East
04-02-2008, 04:48 PM
In case you have not seen them, here some web sites that might interest Reds’ fans. One is at
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/03/can-you-make-better-lineup-than-dusty.html

Lately the blog has been asking, “Can you make a better lineup than Dusty? “If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week…Fill in nine players, OBA and Slugging Percentage, then press submit.”

The Markov and PECOTA software will then analyze and spit out how many runs each lineup should produce per game. You can use Dusty’s 9 players and/or (separately) any 9 from the Reds’ organization in your lineup constructions.

You can also get an immediate answer about any lineup you select at another site, Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis, Based on work by Cyril Morong, Ken Arneson and Ryan Armbrust, at http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py

According to Baseball Musings, Dusty’s opening day lineup theoretically can produce 4.353 runs per game. Using those same 9 names, Baseball Musings produced at least 30 better lineups than the opening day one, ranging from 4.789 to 4.770 predicted runs scored per game.

Each of those 30 lineups had Harang batting 8th (ala some of Tony LaRussa’s Cardinal lineups); most lineups have a combination of Hatteberg or Keppinger at #9/#1 – hypothetically as table-setters for the “best” hitters on the team who follow.

For example, 4.781 runs are predicted for this lineup: Keppinger, Dunn, Phillips, Griffey, Encarnacion, Valentin, Patterson, Harang, Hatteberg.

Check out those sites.

edabbs44
04-02-2008, 04:50 PM
This is getting a little out of control.

*BaseClogger*
04-02-2008, 04:55 PM
What floor for the Dusty Disorder patients? ;)

lollipopcurve
04-02-2008, 05:17 PM
You know, I've been first in line sometimes in expressing impatience with the anguishings of the lineup-obsessed. On a game by game basis, it's just whining in my ears. But the 8/9 switch is starting to win me over. I like the idea of two high OBP guys feeding into the 2 slot in the batting order several times a game (assuming the 2 hitter packs some punch). I'm not sure the Reds personnel is all that great for it (Hatteberg and Kepp -- assuming they're at 9-1 -- are station to station guys, which would present more DP and fewer Sac Fly situations, not to mention baserunning outs, in front of the big boys), but when large calculations are continually putting up differences of almost half a run/game, I think you have to consider it seriously.

Again, I'm not sure the Reds' personnel fits this model all that well, as Votto really should be playing, and I wouldn't put him 9th or first........... I think. Anyway, the Reds don't seem ready to make this kind of change, but if/when it happens, I don't think I'll object.

Far East
04-02-2008, 06:58 PM
This is getting a little out of control.Perhaps I should have prefaced my thread-starter -- which I did not want to make inordinately long to begin with -- with a disclaimer that I was not intending to express criticism or even an opinion.

Just pointing out two sites that might be of interest and a sample of what the sites offered.

RedsManRick
04-02-2008, 07:32 PM
What floor for the Dusty Disorder patients? ;)

I'm currently on the 28th floor.