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View Full Version : It feels pretty good to be able to go into the 9th with a feeling of confidence...



WMR
04-03-2008, 03:20 PM
Props Cordero on your first save as a Red.

reds44
04-03-2008, 03:21 PM
Nasty slider to get Byrnes to end the game.

Quite a different feeling going from going to the bottom of the 9th down 2 last night, to being 2-1 now.

Good start.

membengal
04-03-2008, 03:24 PM
I echo the sentiment of this thread.

RedsManRick
04-03-2008, 03:25 PM
Cordero has filthy stuff. I'm sure he'll have his share of rough outings, but it's nice to see a guy go out and blow guys in away with a 1 run lead in the 9th.

Benihana
04-03-2008, 03:26 PM
(nodding in agreement)

jojo
04-03-2008, 03:30 PM
If ever there was a game that would've been a tone setter if blown, this would've been it.

Doing my best Bill Walton imitation: "That slider saved the season for the Reds!"

Cyclone792
04-03-2008, 03:33 PM
I'd have liked to have seen Cordero in the 8th inning after Weathers walked his second batter of the inning to make it 1st and 2nd with one out (before walking the bases loaded). Those are the kind of fires a near $50 million man should be called upon to put out.

But thankfully it worked out anyway and the Reds still picked up the W.

The_jbh
04-03-2008, 03:34 PM
I'll take the W...

I must say when I saw Cordero come in for the 9th I felt more comfortable during the 9th inning that I have since Williamson and Graves

jojo
04-03-2008, 03:36 PM
I didn't like all of the walks the Reds took today though. I hope Dusty has a heart to heart with the guys before the next game. :cool:

KoryMac5
04-03-2008, 03:38 PM
It will be interesting to see if Dusty starts to rely on Hot Rod more and more as the season goes on.

TOBTTReds
04-03-2008, 03:38 PM
I haven't had problems with the 9th inning in a few years. I've had faith in stormy, it was the 8th that drove me crazy.

dabvu2498
04-03-2008, 03:39 PM
It will be interesting to see if Dusty starts to rely on Hot Rod more and more as the season goes on.

Hot Rod and Mercker. Whodathunkit?

Of course, it's only 2 games.

PuffyPig
04-03-2008, 04:12 PM
I'd have liked to have seen Cordero in the 8th inning after Weathers walked his second batter of the inning to make it 1st and 2nd with one out (before walking the bases loaded).

That would mean that you would have Cordero warming up in the 8th inning of every game we have a lead in.

That would take quite a toll on his arm over the course of the year.

That's the main reason you don't see more 1+ inning saves. The need to anticipate you will need your closer then. I certainly don't encourage warming up our closer in the 8th inning every game on the off chance we need him.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2008, 04:15 PM
Cordero was simply awesome today. I feel so comfortable going into the 9th inning with a lead now. I never felt this way with Danny Graves or any other closer the Reds have had since I've been a fan. Scott Williamson was great but you never knew if was going to throw strikes on some days.

David Weathers was awful. I'm hoping the Reds can squeeze one more solid year out of him but considering his age and stuff, who knows. Hopefully the Reds won't be shy about bringing up Josh Roenicke if Weathers continues to struggle.

nate
04-03-2008, 05:04 PM
Hot Rod and Mercker.

Sounds like an 80's "Good cop/Bad cop" comedy.

Cyclone792
04-03-2008, 05:10 PM
That would mean that you would have Cordero warming up in the 8th inning of every game we have a lead in.

That would take quite a toll on his arm over the course of the year.

That's the main reason you don't see more 1+ inning saves. The need to anticipate you will need your closer then. I certainly don't encourage warming up our closer in the 8th inning every game on the off chance we need him.

Not necessarily.

Cordero will be warming up and pitching in the 9th inning of games with three run leads just so he can tack on cheap saves. Throw somebody out in the 9th to pick up those cheap saves, and Cordero's arm and appearances are saved for more crucial innings/games.

If Cordero is good for approximately 75 innings each season, then those 75 innings should be the highest leverage innings the Reds have this season once the game reaches the 7th or 8th inning.

RedsManRick
04-03-2008, 05:10 PM
David Weathers was awful. I'm hoping the Reds can squeeze one more solid year out of him but considering his age and stuff, who knows. Hopefully the Reds won't be shy about bringing up Josh Roenicke if Weathers continues to struggle.

How nice is it to realize that, for once, if one of the veterans has that off-the-cliff season, we have a capable young arm in AAA ready to come in and fill his shoes? Heck, the young guy might even be an upgrade. So used to that AAA fill-in being the Ricky Stones and Chris Michalaks of the world...

WMR
04-03-2008, 05:13 PM
Not necessarily.

Cordero will be warming up and pitching in the 9th inning of games with three run leads just so he can tack on cheap saves. Throw somebody out in the 9th to pick up those cheap saves, and Cordero's arm and appearances are saved for more crucial innings/games.

If Cordero is good for approximately 75 innings each season, then those 75 innings should be the highest leverage innings the Reds have this season once the game reaches the 7th or 8th inning.

Wow, do I wish our manager thought like that!

RedsManRick
04-03-2008, 05:16 PM
Not necessarily.

Cordero will be warming up and pitching in the 9th inning of games with three run leads just so he can tack on cheap saves. Throw somebody out in the 9th to pick up those cheap saves, and Cordero's arm and appearances are saved for more crucial innings/games.

If Cordero is good for approximately 75 innings each season, then those 75 innings should be the highest leverage innings the Reds have this season once the game reaches the 7th or 8th inning.

This is essentially the Diamondbacks strategy this year. Lyon is a capable, but not overwhelming guy who is the main guy brought in to finish up games. Their best relief pitchers, Pena, Cruz, and Qualls are there for the high leverage situations earlier in the game.

They followed a somewhat similar model last year (better closer) and that was a large reason they outperformed their Pythag record. They used their best relievers in high leverage situations and their lesser ones when the game was more or less already won/lost.

Ravenlord
04-03-2008, 05:30 PM
i'll reserve judgement until Cordero shows he's not going to have the weir home/road split he had last year. i think it was just a fluke, but i'll feel better after a month.

WebScorpion
04-04-2008, 11:05 AM
I'm even more relieved (literally) to see Lincoln come in with the bases juiced in the 8th and stop the bleeding. That was just fantastic! So, for the moment I'm pretty confident when they call on Mercker, Lincoln, and Cordero. Weathers will always be an adventure, but I'm confident he's going to give us a lot of good innings too. It looks like they did a fine job of piecing to gether a decent bullpen from what they had in ST. Cutting Stanton and keeping Mercker is a mystery to me no longer. The same goes for keeping Lincoln over some of the other options.

This team looks like it could contend for the weak NL Central Division all season. The best part is that injuries in certain areas may actually cause upgrades... if Bailey, Bruce, Roenicke, and/or others get called up. :thumbup:


:thisyear:

jojo
04-04-2008, 11:25 AM
Here's the thing-for as miscast as Weathers was as a closer in '07, he converted 85% of his save opportunities. While Cordero will look a lot prettier as a closer, it's tough to see how he'll be a significant upgrade over what the Reds got from their closer last season. All he does is replace a guy who is due to fall off a cliff at any moment.

RANDY IN INDY
04-04-2008, 11:31 AM
I didn't like all of the walks the Reds took today though. I hope Dusty has a heart to heart with the guys before the next game. :cool:

Just out of curiosity, how many walks were there and how many of those walks scored? (And don't get me wrong, I like the fact that they drew those walks)

coachw513
04-04-2008, 11:36 AM
I haven't had problems with the 9th inning in a few years. I've had faith in stormy, it was the 8th that drove me crazy.

Absolutely...Weathers wasn't going to blow 'em away, but by all standards he was a very solid closer...but it was the 8th inning fiasco every single night that was a nightmare...

By the way, just a little stones by Dusty to run Lincoln out there with the bases loaded in the 8th...that took nerve and the guy made him look smart...good for him...nice, easy way to make your way back to the big leagues :thumbup:

RedsManRick
04-04-2008, 11:38 AM
Here's the thing-for as miscast as Weathers was as a closer in '07, he converted 85% of his save opportunities. While Cordero will look a lot prettier as a closer, it's tough to see how he'll be a significant upgrade over what the Reds got from their closer last season. All he does is replace a guy who is due to fall off a cliff at any moment.

While it might be difficult to measure the gains, there's a lot of value in avoiding catastrophe. Cashing in our chips with Weathers was the right decision, specific replacement aside. It's important to think of Cordero as not a change from Weathers 2007, but from what we would have likely gotten from Weathers 2008. It looks much better in that light.

It might not have been cheap in this case, but it's usually smarter to prevent than to fix. God knows Krivksy doesn't have the greatest track record of fixing problems midseason.

RedsManRick
04-04-2008, 11:39 AM
nt

princeton
04-04-2008, 11:51 AM
just a little stones by Dusty to run Lincoln out there with the bases loaded in the 8th...that took nerve and the guy made him look smart...

least of five evils.

Bullpen Nickname: CoCo and the Krispies

redsmetz
04-04-2008, 11:57 AM
It will be interesting to see if Dusty starts to rely on Hot Rod more and more as the season goes on.

If he's successful, then I would think so. Same with Mercker.

BRM
04-04-2008, 12:12 PM
Just out of curiosity, how many walks were there and how many of those walks scored? (And don't get me wrong, I like the fact that they drew those walks)

9 walks, none of them scored.

jojo
04-04-2008, 12:27 PM
Just out of curiosity, how many walks were there and how many of those walks scored? (And don't get me wrong, I like the fact that they drew those walks)

Nine. None. That says not a lot about the value of the walk and a whole lot about the quality of the Reds offense.

RANDY IN INDY
04-04-2008, 01:18 PM
I think it says that while walks are truly valuable, you have to swing the bat to score runs.

princeton
04-04-2008, 01:23 PM
least of five evils.

Bullpen Nickname: CoCo and the Krispies


better: Coco with Toast

RedsManRick
04-04-2008, 01:24 PM
I think it says that while walks are truly valuable, you have to swing the bat to drive in runs.

Corrected it for you. Scoring the runs, literally, has nothing to do with swinging the bats and everything to do with running around the bases. Getting on base in the first place, so that the guys swing their bats drive you in can clearly be accomplished without swinging the bat at all.

Replacing those walks with a bunch of swings wouldn't have scored more runs necessarily. Now, replacing the outs that followed the walks with either hits, or more walks, would have generated some runs.

klw
04-04-2008, 01:37 PM
Well for what it is worth the Reds were 62-1 when leading going into the 9th last year.


Record when tied, leading or behind at the start of the inning.
Inning Ahead Tied Behind
+------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
1 72-90 .444
2 25-15 .625 33-34 .493 14-41 .255
3 29-25 .537 25-22 .532 18-43 .295
4 37-25 .597 19-21 .475 16-44 .267
5 45-26 .634 15-14 .517 12-50 .194
6 51-24 .680 10-10 .500 11-56 .164
7 55-17 .764 8-14 .364 9-59 .132
8 57-8 .877 7-17 .292 8-65 .110
9 62-1 .984 7-10 .412 3-79 .037
10 10-8 .556
11 7-5 .583
12 5-0 1.000
13 1-0 1.000
14 1-0 1.000
15 1-0 1.000

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2007&team_id=CIN

Leads Gained and Lost
Started Inn: All Ahead Tied Behind
Ended Inn : All Ahd Tied Behd All Ahd Tied Behd All Ahd Tied Behd All Ahd Tied Behd
+--------------+----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+----+-----+----+----+----+
1 162 40 67 55 162 40 67 55
2 162 54 47 61 40 36 2 2 67 15 39 13 55 3 6 46
3 162 62 40 60 54 50 3 1 47 9 30 8 61 3 7 51
4 162 71 29 62 62 53 5 4 40 14 17 9 60 4 7 49
5 162 75 20 67 71 62 5 4 29 9 13 7 62 4 2 56
6 162 72 22 68 75 64 5 6 20 5 10 5 67 3 7 57
7 162 65 24 73 72 60 7 5 22 2 14 6 68 3 3 62
8 162 63 17 82 65 57 4 4 24 3 10 11 73 3 3 67
9 162 62 18 82 63 61 1 1 17 1 12 4 82 0 5 77
10 18 3 12 3 18 3 12 3
11 12 2 5 5 12 2 5 5
12 5 4 1 0 5 4 1 0
13 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
14 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
15 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0
WS Champion Red Sox for comparison

Record when tied, leading or behind at the start of the inning.
Inning Ahead Tied Behind
+------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
1 96-66 .593
2 32-14 .696 53-33 .616 11-19 .367
3 40-15 .727 39-22 .639 17-29 .370
4 52-17 .754 26-15 .634 18-34 .346
5 70-13 .843 8-9 .471 18-44 .290
6 74-9 .892 10-8 .556 12-49 .197
7 77-6 .928 8-4 .667 11-56 .164
8 84-6 .933 3-3 .500 9-57 .136
9 89-2 .978 3-6 .333 4-58 .065
10 2-5 .286
11 1-3 .250
12 1-1 .500
13 0-1 .000

jojo
04-04-2008, 01:55 PM
I think it says that while walks are truly valuable, you have to swing the bat to score runs.

I think it says you have to swing the bat effectively to score runs.

Spitball
04-04-2008, 02:07 PM
Being selective enough to get on base via walk or hit is the important thing. Being selective will result in more walks and more hitter's counts.

RANDY IN INDY
04-04-2008, 02:12 PM
Corrected it for you. Scoring the runs, literally, has nothing to do with swinging the bats and everything to do with running around the bases. Getting on base in the first place, so that the guys swing their bats drive you in can clearly be accomplished without swinging the bat at all.

Replacing those walks with a bunch of swings wouldn't have scored more runs necessarily. Now, replacing the outs that followed the walks with either hits, or more walks, would have generated some runs.

Oh. I stand corrected. My "baseball field slang" way of saying things is evidently not understood.

VR
04-04-2008, 02:20 PM
better: Coco with Toast

Hot coco and flaming marshmellows (fits for weathers and Coffey?)

WebScorpion
04-04-2008, 04:29 PM
Hot coco and flaming marshmellows (fits for weathers and Coffey?)

It's a shame we didn't hang on to Shack. Then our setup guys could have been ShackelFord/Lincoln/Mercker. :laugh: