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Kc61
04-03-2008, 05:33 PM
When Gonzo comes back, what to do about Keppinger?

Guy is the best OBP man on the team, is constantly on base. Plays solid defense.

Against lefties, he'll likely play some first base since the Reds need a righty bat there.

But against righties, I don't want Keppinger sitting on the bench.

What to do?

P.S. -- Can he catch?

BRM
04-03-2008, 05:35 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS

bucksfan2
04-03-2008, 05:39 PM
You get Keppinger in the lineup any way possible. He is the best pure hitter the reds have had in a long time. He is the kind of guy who isn't going to hit many home runs but isn't going to strike out much and will put the ball in play.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 05:40 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS

Talk about wasted $$$.

BRM
04-03-2008, 05:42 PM
Talk about wasted $$$.

What would you do?

pedro
04-03-2008, 05:44 PM
Talk about wasted $$$.

could you just stop it with the $$ money for once?

You act like AG is making 20 million a year.

If you don't have anything more interesting to talk about then please, please, please just save the 1's and 0's.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-03-2008, 05:46 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS


That sounds great to me.

princeton
04-03-2008, 05:46 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS


vs. LHP:

Kepp 3b
EdE 1b

pedro
04-03-2008, 05:48 PM
vs. LHP:

Kepp 3b
EdE 1b

That's an interesting thought too.

membengal
04-03-2008, 05:51 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS

That's the one I am yearning for.

Highlifeman21
04-03-2008, 05:52 PM
Talk about wasted $$$.

It's not your $, and the $'s already been budgeted, so it's not costing the organization $ from other areas for this year.

There's no robbing from Peter to pay Paul with this organization. Since Bob the Lettuce Man took over, we've seen more $ thrown around than the entire Lindner era combined.

BRM
04-03-2008, 05:53 PM
vs. LHP:

Kepp 3b
EdE 1b

I could definitely go for that. Has EE played 1B before?

WMR
04-03-2008, 05:54 PM
I'm not touching EE at 3rd. Kepp's range and instincts are nowhere close to Edwin's at the hot corner, plus I think the strain of moving him from his natural possession would destroy the forward momentum that he has managed to generate.

Kepp. MUST be in the line-up on a daily basis.

dabvu2498
04-03-2008, 05:55 PM
I could definitely go for that. Has EE played 1B before?

2 games at Louisville and 2 games with the big club.

Baseball cube confirmed what I remembered about his time in Dayton also... he used to play a little SS.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 05:56 PM
What would you do?

Besides not offer him that contract? I would put the best team on the field regardless of salary.

Cyclone792
04-03-2008, 05:56 PM
I like pedro's idea. Kepp plays 1B against lefties and SS against righties.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS

That's what I would do. The bench has a pretty strong frontline with Hatteberg available to pinch hit too.

Gonzalez is making the cash, but I'm starting to think Keppinger is the better ballplayer. Contract or not, Keppinger shouldn't head to the bench to make room for Gonzalez. Neither should Encarnacion either.

WMR
04-03-2008, 05:57 PM
That's what I would do. The bench has a pretty strong frontline with Hatteberg available to pinch hit too.

Gonzalez is making the cash, but I'm starting to think Keppinger is the better ballplayer. Contract or not, Keppinger shouldn't head to the bench to make room for Gonzalez. Neither should Encarnacion either.

Exactly. I'm with ya.

pedro
04-03-2008, 05:57 PM
Besides not offer him that contract? I would put the best team on the field regardless of salary.

:rolleyes:

You've argued against that very point from the time you arrived on this board.

BRM
04-03-2008, 05:58 PM
Besides not offer him that contract? I would put the best team on the field regardless of salary.

So you agree with pedro's idea?

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 05:59 PM
could you just stop it with the $$ money for once?

You act like AG is making 20 million a year.

If you don't have anything more interesting to talk about then please, please, please just save the 1's and 0's.

Sorry.

I'll just ignore it.

klw
04-03-2008, 05:59 PM
3rd Kepp
SS Phillips
2nd EE
1st Votto

:D

But not til next year

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 06:00 PM
:rolleyes:

You've argued against that very point from the time you arrived on this board.

What have I done? Not sure I understand what you are saying.

pedro
04-03-2008, 06:01 PM
What have I done? Not sure I understand what you are saying.

If you were willing to put the best team on the field regardless of salary why did you spend the entire off season claiming that signing Cordero was stupid?

RedsManRick
04-03-2008, 06:01 PM
Gonzo's money is already fixed. Trade him if you can get some solid value for him, but otherwise play the best 8 you can on any given night and forget about how much the guys are getting paid.

vs LHP:
Kepp 1B
Gonzo SS

vs RHP:
Votto 1B
Kepp SS

This is pretty clearly the best scenario unless something major happens.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 06:01 PM
So you agree with pedro's idea?

Yes I do.

But I don't understand why I can't say that it is wasted money on the bench.

BRM
04-03-2008, 06:02 PM
Gonzo's money is already fixed. Trade him if you can get some solid value for him, but otherwise play the best 8 you can on any given night and forget about how much the guys are getting paid.

Exactly right.

red-in-la
04-03-2008, 06:02 PM
I could definitely go for that. Has EE played 1B before?

Is this BRM part duex? Is EdwinE the next Tony Perez?

Perez started out playing a questionable 3B for the BRM. The Reds had Lee May at 1B so Tony had to play 3B. The Reds traded May in the Morgan deal and Tony moved to where he was a better player, 1B.

In 2009, I could see Dunn and JR gone, EdwinE at 1B, Joey Votto in LF, and Keppinger at 3B.....and I guess, Gonzo at SS. I have never that impressed with Gonzo.....but, what the heck.

For the record, I also love pedro's idea. :thumbup:

BRM
04-03-2008, 06:03 PM
Yes I do.

But I don't understand why I can't say that it is wasted money on the bench.

I assume you are lumping Hatteberg into that as well? He'd be on the bench too in those lineups.

I do see your point by the way. I just don't care how much money is on the bench, personally.

reds44
04-03-2008, 06:03 PM
Yes I do.

But I don't understand why I can't say that it is wasted money on the bench.
The Reds were supposed to know that Keppinger would fall into their lap? Or should they have just not signed him?

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 06:10 PM
If you were willing to put the best team on the field regardless of salary why did you spend the entire off season claiming that signing Cordero was stupid?

I think you are confused:

11/23/07, in the Cordero thread:


Still shocked and bewildered. I can't believe that they actually got a top-tier FA.

Here's to a few more guys (another good reliever, a middle of the rotation guy, a RH bat) and this team will be looking pretty sweet.

I keep seeing people talking about Garza. I would love that move.

I was happy with the signing at the time, contingent upon a few other necessary moves. Those moves did not take place, therefore devaluing the acquisition IMO.

But the other issue is that I think that you need to put the best team on the field regardless of salary when it is already on your team. Don't go and drop millions just because you can. But if there is an ineffective multi-million dollar player on the roster and you have a youngster coming up through the ranks who is going to help you win more than the vet, there is no question.

But it doesn't save the GM from making a stupid signing.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 06:12 PM
The Reds were supposed to know that Keppinger would fall into their lap? Or should they have just not signed him?

If Gonzalez was a smart signing (i.e. if he deserved to play) then they'd be looking elsewhere to get Keppinger into the lineup or looking to deal from a strength.

Keppinger's strong play is one reason why people want him in at SS. Gonzo's uselessness is another.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 06:14 PM
I assume you are lumping Hatteberg into that as well? He'd be on the bench too in those lineups.

I do see your point by the way. I just don't care how much money is on the bench, personally.

You might when they don't acquire someone at the deadline or when they don't draft the BPA because of bonus demands.

Every GM is going to make bad acquisitions. That's a foregone conclusion. It's just that Wayne has a lot of dead money on the books right now. Money that could potentially get this team some much needed help, either now or in the future.

princeton
04-03-2008, 06:14 PM
if healthy, Gonzalez will help this team a lot ;)

Kc61
04-03-2008, 06:15 PM
I think the Reds need to make some trades. They appear to be better than in the last several years, but some of the parts don't fit that well.

They should consider trading --

Gonzo once he re-establishes his health;

Hatteberg, who doesn't fit as a bench player because Reds have two lefty hitting first basemen and Hatte only plays that position;

Freel or Hopper because they are both right handed outfielders off the bench.

In exchange, it would be nice if the Reds had a good hitting right handed platoon first baseman.

I don't dislike Gonzo, Freel, Hopper or Hatte, I think they are all good players. I just wonder about the fit of all these guys on this team.

Ravenlord
04-03-2008, 06:33 PM
play Keppinger at 1B against lefties....

play Keppinger about once a week at 3B unless EdE absolutely implodes...

play Keppinger about twice a week at SS.

play Keppinger about twice a month at 2B.

play Keppinger in LF when you rest Dunn.

that should be about 120-135 games and 440 or so PAs.

barring trades of course.

fearofpopvol1
04-03-2008, 06:39 PM
I don't know that it matters so much how rather than they need to find a way to get him in the lineup as often as possible. The team is already short on RH batters anyhow. His OBP and BA are ridiculous. He's just a really solid hitter. He puts the bat square on the ball. His contact is fun to watch.

flyer85
04-03-2008, 06:56 PM
When Gonzo comes back, what to do about Keppinger?No brainer ... play him at SS.

if you want him to play some at first against some LHP, I have no problem with that.

SS defense isn't going to be nearly as important with a staff of fly ball pitchers(other than Fogg) who also are going to miss a lot of bats.

Kepps bat far outweighs Gonzo's overrated defense.

CTA513
04-03-2008, 07:51 PM
When Gonzo comes back, what to do about Keppinger?

Guy is the best OBP man on the team, is constantly on base. Plays solid defense.

Against lefties, he'll likely play some first base since the Reds need a righty bat there.

But against righties, I don't want Keppinger sitting on the bench.

What to do?

P.S. -- Can he catch?


I wish he could.

SMcGavin
04-03-2008, 08:19 PM
Keppinger's strong play is one reason why people want him in at SS. Gonzo's uselessness is another.

Yeah, who has any use for a 99 OPS+ from the shortstop position?

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 08:46 PM
Yeah, who has any use for a 99 OPS+ from the shortstop position?

In his career, he has OPS+ed over 85 3 times. The first two times he did it, he didn't do it for another 3 years.

I'll go out on a limb and say he doesn't get there this year.

Rojo
04-03-2008, 09:04 PM
vs. LHP:

Kepp 3b
EdE 1b

I was thinking the same thing. My concern is devaluing EdE as a trade commodity. Yes, I've soured on him.

RedlegJake
04-03-2008, 09:18 PM
Calling Gonzo useless is reverse hyperbole. Really. His contract is reasonable for his production and at the time he was signed no one had a clue that Kepp would produce like he has, and SS was a big hole. Unless you bought that BP was a better SS option with Freel manning 2B, which I never have. Once signed it really doesn't matter if a younger player, or cheaper player takes the starting role away. If Baker sticks with Kepp at SS then AGon becomes a strong reserve. Ya wanna talk Castro being a waste of dollars, or Valentin, I'm all ears to that. But AGon for the money? Nope. Not buying.

redsrule2500
04-03-2008, 09:25 PM
3rd Kepp
SS Phillips
2nd EE
1st Votto

:D

But not til next year

How is EE's range? That doesn't sound like a half bad idea....

For now, though, I'd like to see Kepp @ 3rd over EE....use EE for pinch hitting, DH, occasional sub IMO.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 10:19 PM
If Baker sticks with Kepp at SS then AGon becomes a strong reserve. Ya wanna talk Castro being a waste of dollars, or Valentin, I'm all ears to that. But AGon for the money? Nope. Not buying.

If Baker sticks with Kepp at SS then AGon becomes an expensive reserve. Too expensive for this team.

GAC
04-03-2008, 10:24 PM
No brainer ... play him at SS.

As much as I like Kepp and feel they need to find a spot for him, I get visions of Jack Wilson at SS. I don't know if he has the range for SS.

Heath
04-03-2008, 10:25 PM
This afternoon or yesterday, I can't remember, Dusty talked about AGon as someone who probably won't be healthy for a while.

pedro
04-03-2008, 10:25 PM
If Baker sticks with Kepp at SS then AGon becomes an expensive reserve. Too expensive for this team.

Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.

Seriously, do you have any interest in baseball other than the team budget? Because it really seems like you don't.

pedro
04-03-2008, 10:29 PM
As much as I like Kepp and feel they need to find a spot for him, I get visions of Jack Wilson at SS. I don't know if he has the range for SS.

Not sure I follow GAC. Jack Wilson is a good field, no hit SS.

KronoRed
04-03-2008, 10:33 PM
SS, make Gonzalez the new Castro.

*BaseClogger*
04-03-2008, 10:50 PM
I don't understand this. How is Keppinger more valuable on the bench if he is the best option to start everyday at shortstop?

I agree with others that what Juan Castro brings to the team can easily be replaced by Paul Janish...

Alex Gonzalez has never been better than an average defensive shortstop. Dusty and others calling him the best in the bigs is frustrating to say the least. Last season Keppinger was about league average defensively at shortstop, and this was his first primary action at the postition. Surely we would see improvement with steady time there? As for Gonzalez having more range, a simple look at last year's range factors disagrees. Gonzalez had a RF of 4.24, while Kepp's was 4.28. Gonzalez is not getting any younger/healthier... Keppinger would give us that RH #2 hitter with an OBP, likely play about the same defense as Gonzalez, and if we could move AGon, save us money... I can only dream (please Dusty! please!) :pray:

As for the RH 1B/LF/RF I once again present you with Justin Huber; a career .288/.383/.495 minor league hitter that has been at his best in the high levels. He is only 25 years old, and similarly to Jeff Keppinger has been blocked for no good reason by the KC Royals. Reports are that he is out of options and is likely to be DFA'd at the end of spring a la Brian Anderson...

BTW--I like the idea of flipping Keppinger and Patterson. I imagine Dusty won't do it because it would put two lefties back-to-back, but Dusty loves to hit-and-run and Patterson as a lefty could pull it through that hole. Patterson is also the supperior bunter, and it means about 15 extra PA's for Keppinger... :thumbup:

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 11:11 PM
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.Money.
Money.Money.Money.Money.

Seriously, do you have any interest in baseball other than the team budget? Because it really seems like you don't.

I have an interest in watching this team succeed. Spending money wisely has a lot to do with that goal, whether you choose to admit that or not. Especially when you don't play in NY. If you want to cheer the front office for spending money on people who do not help meet that goal, then that is your prerogative.

coachw513
04-03-2008, 11:12 PM
Is this BRM part duex? Is EdwinE the next Tony Perez?

Perez started out playing a questionable 3B for the BRM. The Reds had Lee May at 1B so Tony had to play 3B. The Reds traded May in the Morgan deal and Tony moved to where he was a better player, 1B.

In 2009, I could see Dunn and JR gone, EdwinE at 1B, Joey Votto in LF, and Keppinger at 3B.....and I guess, Gonzo at SS. I have never that impressed with Gonzo.....but, what the heck.

For the record, I also love pedro's idea. :thumbup:

Maybe Patterson can play the role of John Vukovich, and Bruce in the lineup by next month?? ;)...for those who might not remember, John was the regular 3B for the '75 Reds...not the best of hitters though (understatement) despite being a slick fielder...in early May with the Reds hovering around .500, Sparky PH's for him with the bases loaded in the 2ND INNING...kindof a statement that his reign in the hot corner would be a short one...the next day, Rose was messin' around over at 1st base during BP when Sparky said "how 'bout you take some over there", motioning to 3rd base...a couple of days later, history was made (along with the Reds winning 70 of their next 100 games)...

SMcGavin
04-03-2008, 11:13 PM
In his career, he has OPS+ed over 85 3 times. The first two times he did it, he didn't do it for another 3 years.


Way to paint it. I can also selectively choose stats: e.g. Gonzalez has only OPS+ed under 85 one time in his last four NL seasons.

Anyway, Gonzalez last season was above average for a SS with the bat. He might not be that good again, but there's no reason to expect him to fall of a cliff. You might think he's overpaid, but calling him "useless" is obvious hyperbole and tends to discredit the other things you say.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 11:22 PM
Way to paint it. I can also selectively choose stats: e.g. Gonzalez has only OPS+ed under 85 one time in his last four NL seasons.

Anyway, Gonzalez last season was above average for a SS with the bat. He might not be that good again, but there's no reason to expect him to fall of a cliff. You might think he's overpaid, but calling him "useless" is obvious hyperbole and tends to discredit the other things you say.

He is of little use for this team. Does that work better?

Caveat Emperor
04-03-2008, 11:24 PM
I have an interest in watching this team succeed. Spending money wisely has a lot to do with that goal, whether you choose to admit that or not. Especially when you don't play in NY. If you want to cheer the front office for spending money on people who do not help meet that goal, then that is your prerogative.

As long as the ATM never prints out a slip that says "Insufficient Funds," I'll be OK.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 11:34 PM
As long as the ATM never prints out a slip that says "Insufficient Funds," I'll be OK.

I doubt we'll ever see that, but I'm sure that will factor into a decision at some point when it comes to acquiring a player, whether it be through the trade market, free agency, amateur draft or international free agency.

SMcGavin
04-03-2008, 11:43 PM
He is of little use for this team. Does that work better?

It does. And if we could have predicted the emergence of Keppinger, Gonzalez wouldn't have been signed. Unfortunately our SS situation going into last year was a disaster, so the addition of an average stopgap like Gonzalez made a ton of sense. I hardly think it's fair to give Krisky flak for not forseeing that his career minor leaguer waiver pickup would emergence into a legit ML shortstop.

edabbs44
04-03-2008, 11:52 PM
It does. And if we could have predicted the emergence of Keppinger, Gonzalez wouldn't have been signed. Unfortunately our SS situation going into last year was a disaster, so the addition of an average stopgap like Gonzalez made a ton of sense. I hardly think it's fair to give Krisky flak for not forseeing that his career minor leaguer waiver pickup would emergence into a legit ML shortstop.

You are looking at it the wrong way.

This isn't about Keppinger. While Keppinger has played well, he hasn't exactly been Lou Gehrig to Gonzalez's Wally Pipp. Gonzalez has either been off the field for various reasons or decent (at best) while on it. He is losing his spot more than Keppinger is taking it from him.

Believe me, Kepp has been a great surprise so far in his limited time here. But if Gonzo was playing well this wouldn't even be a discussion. Someone would be being shopped for pitching.

SMcGavin
04-04-2008, 01:07 AM
But if Gonzo was playing well this wouldn't even be a discussion.

That's the thing: Gonzalez has played pretty well. His 2007 season at the plate was better than a league average shortstop. His defense probably isn't what it once was so let's just assume league average defense. In 2007, when Gonzalez was on the field, he was a slightly above average shortstop. If you disagree with this, feel free to cite statistics to back your case.

You are vastly underrating the season Alex Gonzalez just had. I don't have a problem with starting Keppinger when AGon gets back because I love the addition of a high OBP guy to our lineup. But rest assured, Gonzalez is only "losing his job" in your eyes. He might get beat out by a guy hitting the cover off the ball, but Gonzalez had a pretty good season last year himself.

mbgrayson
04-04-2008, 01:31 AM
JinAZ's website, 'On Baseball and the Reds' (http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/), did an analysis of both defensive and offensive value. It is available HERE (http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/11/player-value-part-4-position-player.html).

Using his total numbers, Gonzalez is more valuable as a fielder, and Keppinger as a hitter. In total, Gonzalez was rated at +6.2 in fielding, +13.3 in hitting, for total value of +19.5. Keppinger was rated at 0 in fielding, and +17.1 hitting, for total value of 17.1.

FYI: Juan Castro was -1.3 in fielding, -8.2 in hitting, for a total value of -9.4.

These numbers were based on 2007 production. In that regard, Keppinger had fewer inning in the field and fewer ABs. It was analysis of 2007; not a projection for 2008. It is an interesting project....

pedro
04-04-2008, 02:05 AM
I have an interest in watching this team succeed. Spending money wisely has a lot to do with that goal, whether you choose to admit that or not. Especially when you don't play in NY. If you want to cheer the front office for spending money on people who do not help meet that goal, then that is your prerogative.

I know. And I want them to win just as much as you do. Really.

But really, last night you advocated CUTTING Hatteberg, Gonzalez and Freel. And then today you said you'd carry the best roster you could, regardless of the cost.

You've gone mad man. I'm telling you now. Come back from the edge or we might lose you forever.

edabbs44
04-04-2008, 06:43 AM
I know. And I want them to win just as much as you do. Really.

But really, last night you advocated CUTTING Hatteberg, Gonzalez and Freel. And then today you said you'd carry the best roster you could, regardless of the cost.

You've gone mad man. I'm telling you now. Come back from the edge or we might lose you forever.

No I did not.

I said that, if they were cut, the team wouldn't be worse off. My point was that the money being spent on them isn't a smart use of resources. What would be the point of cutting them now?

pedro
04-04-2008, 04:17 PM
No I did not.

I said that, if they were cut, the team wouldn't be worse off. My point was that the money being spent on them isn't a smart use of resources. What would be the point of cutting them now?

Whatever Dude.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1588207&postcount=19


Cut Hatteberg and start Votto.

Start Keppinger and cut Gonzo.

Bruce over Patterson, don't sign CPatt.

Cut Freel.

Don't sign Affeldt.

Is the team that much worse off?

GAC
04-04-2008, 04:21 PM
Not sure I follow GAC. Jack Wilson is a good field, no hit SS.

Yeah, I knew his bat has always been weak. I was mainly referring to his range at SS. I personally don't think he has the greatest range. And I'm not sure the Kepp does either... at SS.

edabbs44
04-04-2008, 04:47 PM
Whatever Dude.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1588207&postcount=19

I'm guessing I should have used different wording since I used "cut" for everyone who preceded this past offseason and "don't sign" for everyone acquired this winter. But that is nit picking at its finest.

And you cannot even begin to say that I was "advocating" cutting anyone. It was all related to a hypothetical question.

The real problem is taking that quote out of context. The logic still stands that there is a lot of dead money on the roster and that the performance of the team wouldn't be materially affected if they were flat out cut or (better yet) not acquired in the first place.

Better?

Heath
04-04-2008, 05:02 PM
I'm guessing I should have used different wording since I used "cut" for everyone who preceded this past offseason and "don't sign" for everyone acquired this winter. But that is nit picking at its finest.

And you cannot even begin to say that I was "advocating" cutting anyone. It was all related to a hypothetical question.

The real problem is taking that quote out of context. The logic still stands that there is a lot of dead money on the roster and that the performance of the team wouldn't be materially affected if they were flat out cut or (better yet) not acquired in the first place.

Better?

I'm sort of lost here, too - the question was based on the roster that was presented on the 25-man roster as of Opening Day, 2008, not based on roster changes and dead money that 20/20 hindsight can change.

Your arguments are conflicting.

edabbs44
04-04-2008, 05:07 PM
I'm sort of lost here, too - the question was based on the roster that was presented on the 25-man roster as of Opening Day, 2008, not based on roster changes and dead money that 20/20 hindsight can change.

Your arguments are conflicting.

I am saying that if those players just disappeared from the roster (whether it be through outright release, lifetime bans for gambling, getting arrested for drug trafficking, retirement, not being signed in the first place, etc) that the team's performance would not be materially affected.

Using cut in that context might be the issue.

I'm not using 20/20 hindsight. It isn't like these guys were fully expected to do well when they were acquired.

Spring~Fields
04-04-2008, 05:07 PM
Yeah, I knew his bat has always been weak. I was mainly referring to his range at SS. I personally don't think he has the greatest range. And I'm not sure the Kepp does either... at SS.

Greg
What about Kepp at third, can he hit as well or better than Phillips? If he had as many AB as Phillips could he hit for almost as much power, would his other slugging and OB numbers be better than Phillips? Does the SS/2B have enough range to play third? Or can Kepp be the Freel replacement, a player that rotates at 3B, 2B, SS, 1B and the outfield? That would get him a lot of AB or PA

bucksfan2
04-04-2008, 05:12 PM
I'm guessing I should have used different wording since I used "cut" for everyone who preceded this past offseason and "don't sign" for everyone acquired this winter. But that is nit picking at its finest.

And you cannot even begin to say that I was "advocating" cutting anyone. It was all related to a hypothetical question.

The real problem is taking that quote out of context. The logic still stands that there is a lot of dead money on the roster and that the performance of the team wouldn't be materially affected if they were flat out cut or (better yet) not acquired in the first place.

Better?

I am curious as to if there are teams out there without dead money? With the exception of the Marlins there is a lot of dead money out there. Heck ARod makes more money than the entire Marlins team and im not so sure that if I were to start a team from scratch Hanley Ramirez wouldn't be the guy I would want to start my team with over ARod.

edabbs44
04-04-2008, 05:24 PM
I am curious as to if there are teams out there without dead money? With the exception of the Marlins there is a lot of dead money out there. Heck ARod makes more money than the entire Marlins team and im not so sure that if I were to start a team from scratch Hanley Ramirez wouldn't be the guy I would want to start my team with over ARod.

There is a lot of dead money out there. But I think that one of the keys to success in MLB is to use your money wisely. Every team has their own personal salary cap. Cincy probably has over 30% spent on guys who aren't likely to make a material positive impact on the season.

With a payroll in the low $70MMs, that's tough to swallow.

GAC
04-04-2008, 08:25 PM
Greg
What about Kepp at third, can he hit as well or better than Phillips? If he had as many AB as Phillips could he hit for almost as much power, would his other slugging and OB numbers be better than Phillips? Does the SS/2B have enough range to play third? Or can Kepp be the Freel replacement, a player that rotates at 3B, 2B, SS, 1B and the outfield? That would get him a lot of AB or PA

I think everyone is still taking a "wait n see" approach to Keppinger. I think he has shown throughout his career that he can hit, and hit consistently.

Here's his numbers while at the University of Georgia (1999-2001)....


BA OB% SLG% OPS
.383 .442 .596 1.038
.365 .457 .541 .998
.389 .480 .691 1.171


He played 6 seasons in the minors (totals below)....


Games AB BA OB% SLG% OPS

563 2154 .320 .373 .419 .792


In comparing Kepp and Phillips....

The "knock" on them by some is that their OB% is too BA-driven. Meaning that as they get older (over 30), and physical skills start to deteriorate, their performance/numbers will drop. I'll worry about that bridge when they cross it. For now, I like having these guys in my lineup.

I think Kepp is the better of the two as far as being a "pure hitter". I like his wide open batting stance. I think he does a far better job then BP when it comes to batting eye/pitch recognition, which IMO, makes him more disciplined. BP was the wrist action/bat speed, which results in his power. You'll be lucky to get 10 Hrs/year out of Keppinger.

Defense is the question mark with Keppinger, and the issue with me is his range. Phillips has far greater, and is a far superior defensive INFer.

Where to play Keppinger? Good question. I really would like to see him in our lineup everyday. But our INF right now is... Votto (1B), Phillips (2B), EE (3B), Gonzo (SS). Kepp is getting playing time right now because of the Gonzo injury. And he is currently on the 15 day DL, which means he could be back in mid April. When Gonzo comes back they are going to play him. Phillips, who just got a huge contract is also not going to sit or be platooned. You got Votto and Hatteberg platooning 1B.

So that leaves 3B. Can Kepp play there? As far as I'm concerned, EE has to step it up this year. IMO, Dusty likes players (hitters) like Kepp, and want him in that lineup. If EE struggles again, then does Dusty go with Kepp? And if that doesn't occur, then Kepp will be sitting the bench, next to Freel, and be utilized to rest various players. Freel primarily for the OF, and Kepp for the INFers.

Unless a trade is worked out by AS break. ;)

Spring~Fields
04-04-2008, 09:06 PM
Thanks G,
Interesting feedback.
I would like to see Kepp get a full season of numbers under his belt to see what he can do.

GAC
04-05-2008, 06:17 AM
would like to see Kepp get a full season of numbers under his belt to see what he can do.

And I think that is a wise approach. It's kind of nice to be in this position for a change. I actually like our options coming of the bench. It's stronger then I've seen in recent years.

Gleaned this from the Red's website....

"He's the guy that's kind of a perfect second hitter," manager Dusty Baker said. "He's not afraid to hit with two strikes, and he has an idea of what he's doing."


Keppinger, who is listed at 6-foot-0 and 180 pounds, has two other key ingredients to being a good No. 2 hitter -- he's unselfish and knows his limitations.

"I'm a contact hitter," Keppinger said. "I don't necessarily try to drive the ball every at-bat. Sometimes I look for the holes in the infield and try to punch the ball through the hole to get on base. Look behind me. You have a lot of boppers. The more times I can get on base, the more RBIs they'll get when they leave the yard with the ball."
---------

I hope the emergence of Kepp seals Castro's fate once Gonzo comes back. But if some, including the illustrious Marty B, think that Gonzo should sit once he returns, in favor of Keppinger, I'll bet FCB's house that never happens. :lol:

I personally don't have a certain preference as to who should be our SS right now. When we look at the "candidates" (Gonzo and SS) both have strengths/weaknesses.

Keppinger may be a versatile INFer; but until coming to the Reds last season his experience at SS was pretty nil. he was primarily a 2Bman, with some playing time at 3rd. So I don't think that should be overlooked or taken lightly.

Who is the better option defensively at SS? Who has more range? Looking at the personal family troubles Gonzo had last year, and looking at his career overall [d]defensively[/b], I'm not going to hold 2007 against him, or say he is in decline. Not being fair IMO.

Offensively....

Kepp has shown consistency in both the minors (6 seasons), and his brief ML career (122 games).....



BA OB% SLG% OPS
Minors .320 .373 .419 .792
Majors .309 .367 .439 .806

And I personally think that is what one can expect from Kepp. He'll be a .300 hitter with a relatively high OB%, who, IMO, will end up OPSing around .790-.800. The question is - will he be able to maintain that OB% which is so BA-driven, which could also bring down his OPS?

There's 3 years difference between him and Gonzo (28 and 31).

Gonzo...


BA OB% SLG% OPS
2007 .272 .325 .468 .793
Career .248 .295 .399 .694

HumnHilghtFreel
04-05-2008, 10:58 AM
Didn't see this posted yet...


"For a young hitter, Keppinger knows his limitations," said manager Dusty Baker. "He uses the whole field, the center part of the ballpark. He'll hit one to right field, one up the middle, then turn on one like he did for a home run Thursday, then go right back to hitting it up the middle. "A lot of young guys hit a home run and want to go after No. 2, but he goes right back to using the whole field," said Baker. "He is the perfect No. 2 hitter."

High praise from Dusty. Hopefully that means that he'll be keeping a spot in the lineup.

Highlifeman21
04-05-2008, 11:08 AM
I definitely like some of the ideas tossed around on here with different lineup configurations once Gonzo comes back.

The one with EE @ 1B vs. LHP was the most intriguing.

vs RHP
Votto
Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Griffey
Phillips
Patterson
C
P

vs LHP
Freel
Keppinger
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
EE
Gonzalez
C
P

I don't think we'll ever see either of these two lineups, but they certainly would be anti anything The Dusty might ever show us. Keppinger's grown on me (in a good way, not like a fungus or mold or anything bad) last year and this year. I think he's an everyday player and needs to find his way into the lineup every chance he gets. Hopefully The Dusty shares that opinion.

Jpup
04-05-2008, 05:52 PM
I think the Reds will have the same lineup as they did on Saturday for the rest of the season with the exception of giving guys days off. The order won't change, but the player will when it comes to 1st and the catcher spot.

Patterson
Kepp
Jr.
Brandon
Dunn
Edwin
Votto/Hatteberg/Gonzalez
Javy/Ross or Bako

When Gonzalez comes back he will play a lot, but I think his days of playing everyday are about over. I think we will see Castro DFA'd and one of the 1st basemen traded. I can't see them keeping them both after Gonzalez returns because Kepp has to play everyday. I also don't see Freel going anywhere due to his versatility.