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Falls City Beer
04-04-2008, 09:40 AM
Why is it consensus that the Cards will suck, but the Brewers will be good to very good?

westofyou
04-04-2008, 09:41 AM
Why is it consensus that the Cards will suck, but the Brewers will be good to very good?

Because the Brewers have way more young talent... WAY more.

princeton
04-04-2008, 09:43 AM
inertia

Joseph
04-04-2008, 09:45 AM
Kyle Lohse is in the Cards rotation.

They have a horrendous outfield. Their infield isn't much better than the OF.

Pujols could blow out an elbow on any given swing.

Falls City Beer
04-04-2008, 10:19 AM
Pujols could blow out an elbow on any given swing.

Yeah, both teams' fortunes hinge on the health of one player: Pujols for the Cards and Sheets for the Brewers.

Not a Sword of Damocles I'd like to sit under whatever the case.

Question not sufficiently answered. Keep trying.

chicoruiz
04-04-2008, 10:26 AM
The Cards are weak offensively at all the up-the middle positions, and brittle at the corners with Pujols and Glaus, who had major injury issues on grass and is now moving to turf. Duncan is unremarkable and Ankiel is a better story than he is a ballplayer. Their pitching is also weaker on paper than the Brewers, although Duncan has a way of putting decent staffs together out of snips and snails and puppy dog tails.

Joseph
04-04-2008, 10:28 AM
They each have the one player who hold a lot in their hands, but the Cards don't have the same additional talent the Brewers have.

If sheets goes down, that hurts the pitching, but there is still a hell of an offense in Milwaukee. Fielder, Braun, Hart. There is good defense in Hart, Hall, and Hardy.

In St Louis there is Pujols and a whole bunch of prayers that Duncan is still a miracle worker and that Mulder and Carpenter can come back before the All Star Break.

Do the Cards have a shot in the Central if everything goes right? Sure, its a 'balanced' division.

The Brewers just have more talent top to bottom on the field right now.

Compare it...

LF - Braun vs Schumaker....winner Braun
CF - Ankiel vs Cameron ....push, slight edge to Ankiels bat.
RF - Hart vs ?.....winner Hart
3B - Hall vs Glauss.....give me Hall
SS - Hardy vs Izturus.....Hardy
2B Weeks vs Kennedy.....Weeks
1B Fielder vs Pujols.....Pujols, but its not like Fielder is light years behind him, he did hit 50 HRs last year
C Molina vs Kendall.....ok Molina wins this one

Its not even really a debate in my mind. Usually, even if pessimistic about it, I see the merit in your arguments, but I think you are out on a limb with this one. I'll be the first to say you are right if the Cards finish ahead of the Brewers this year, but I just don't see it.

Falls City Beer
04-04-2008, 10:31 AM
The Cards are weak offensively at all the up-the middle positions, and brittle at the corners with Pujols and Glaus, who had major injury issues on grass and is now moving to turf. Duncan is unremarkable and Ankiel is a better story than he is a ballplayer. Their pitching is also weaker on paper than the Brewers, although Duncan has a way of putting decent staffs together out of snips and snails and puppy dog tails.

Top to bottom, the Cards pitching is slightly better right now. If the Brewers lose Sheets, it becomes a whole lot better.

Obviously, the Brewers' offense is much better, but their defense is worse than the Cards'.

I don't know; I'm not convinced there's the gulf between these teams that most are suggesting.

Heath
04-04-2008, 10:31 AM
Yeah, both teams' fortunes hinge on the health of one player: Pujols for the Cards and Sheets for the Brewers.

Not a Sword of Damocles I'd like to sit under whatever the case.

Question not sufficiently answered. Keep trying.

Do we get free beer if we answer right?

Falls City Beer
04-04-2008, 10:34 AM
For the record, I think the Reds are probably better than both of these teams.

So this isn't some "Cards are better than the Reds" thread.

*BaseClogger*
04-04-2008, 10:35 AM
The Cards are nothing without Carpenter, Mulder, and Pujols, and I doubt they get significant contributions by more than one of them...

westofyou
04-04-2008, 10:37 AM
Bill James in his new book "Goldmine" says that the Brewers remind him of the early 70's Dodgers... TONS of talent, but the also are like them in the sense that it's not really evenly distributed, like the Dodgers weren't. Too many outfielder types and skill position players being moved to the outfield and back... the window is open for them, they just have to figure out how to squeeze all that talent through it.

TOBTTReds
04-04-2008, 10:41 AM
Sheets has been unhealthy much of the last few seasons and they have been decent still. If he is healthy the whole year, they could be good. They will have a full season of Braun and Prince batting back to back. Bill Hall will likely hit better than last (could it get worse). People are banking on a break out from Weeks too.

Here is why they won't be as good as people think: Their starting rotation is NOT that good 3-5 (counting Villanueva as the #2, Parra will be fine, but not yet). And #1 usually isn't healthy. Their defense is by far the worst I have ever seen in my life. They don't have a backend of the bullpen. Basically all they are is a bunch of young hitters, which is good enough for 81-81.

The cards just have no pitching. That is why they are no good.

RedsManRick
04-04-2008, 10:45 AM
St Louis vs Milwaukee, working with who is currently healthy -- since those are the guys who actually play the games. Obviously if Sheets or Pujols go down (the two big ? on each team), it changes things.

Advantages bolded. Pushes either bolded (if both good) or both unbolded (if not).

C Molina vs Kendall
1B Pujols vs Fielder
2B Kennedy vs Weeks
SS Izturis vs Hardy
3B Glaus vs Hall
LF Duncan vs Braun
CF Ankiel vs Cameron
RF Shumaker vs Hart

SP Wainwright vs Sheets
SP Looper vs Suppan
SP Loshe vs Bush
SP Wellemeyer vs Villanueva
SP Thompson vs Parra

CL Isringhausen vs Gagne
RP Franklin vs Turnbow
RP Springer vs Riske

Summary is that Brewers have a much better offense and a deeper rotation with higher upside at the backend.

Highlifeman21
04-04-2008, 11:35 AM
Why is it consensus that the Cards will suck, but the Brewers will be good to very good?

IMO, it seems that the Brewers have been/are accumulating young(er) talent the last couple of years while stinking up the joint, and last year seemed to turn the corner in terms of their potential talent becoming actual talent.

The Cards are going the other way. They are getting older, and worse, IMO.

Right now, the Cardinals best healthy pitcher is Adam Wainright. Isringhausen is probably the next best healthy after him. Once Carpenter is healthy, then he'll move to the top of this trio. Besides from these 3, they have no good pitchers on their 40 man roster. They have plenty of question marks.

The Cards position players aren't much better. Pujols, Glaus, Ankiel, Duncan. And Rasmus, once he comes up. That's it. Offensively, the Cards are a huge collection of suck.

The Brewers, however, have more things going for them.

Bush, Gallardo, Mota, Riske, Sheets, Turnbow (ok, that might be a reach) and Villanueva all can pitch, and pitch acceptably well. IMO, the Brewers have one of the better complete pitching staffs in the NL (although that isn't saying much).

Offensively, the Brewers are ridiculously better than the Cards. Kendall can still hit, and he's surrounded by guys like Fielder, Hall, Hardy, Weeks, and Braun. The jury's still out on Gross, Gwynn, Hart and Kapler. Cameron will be a nice offensive lift for the Brew Crew, when he returns from suspension. Again, not saying much, but the Brewers arguably should be a top 5 offensive output team in the NL this year.

I'm not sure that the Brewers will be very good, but I would definitely say they'll be good this year. They should easily finish 2nd in the Central. The Cards? They might be fighting the Pirates for last in the Central.

IslandRed
04-04-2008, 11:52 AM
For what it's worth, BP's PECOTA projection has the Brewers winning 88 games and the Cardinals 75.

PuffyPig
04-04-2008, 11:54 AM
For the record, I think the Reds are probably better than both of these teams.



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RedlegJake
04-04-2008, 12:04 PM
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roflmao:D

TRF
04-04-2008, 12:04 PM
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I agree with FCB. The Reds downfall last year was the 8th inning. 1-3 in the rotation weren't all that bad, and the rotation looks to be better this year, the pen is better too.. Like the Brewers though, the Reds have a bunch of players with no firm position. I think EE is the real deal at 3B, but Kepp is a hitter, and needs a starting position. Votto over Hatte gives the Reds a solid bench, but that begs the question who is the SS and RH 1B platoon partner if Votto struggles? I'd prefer to see Kepp everyday at SS, but if AGon comes back in May that is simply not going to happen.

April will be a month of adjustments.

One of those adjustments might concern Josh Fogg. I'm thinking he's got 4 starts to solidify his spot in the rotation. Belisle's simulated game was very encouraging, very pitch efficient. He's probably 2-3 rehab starts away. I'm hoping he starts his rehab assignment soon.

I still can't stop smiling thinking about Cueto's debut. I haven't been this excited about the Reds since they traded for Junior.

smith288
04-04-2008, 12:08 PM
Is just being the Cards good enough to be considered better than the Brewers or something?

LaRussa is friends with Bobby Knight. Advantage: Cards...

OnBaseMachine
04-04-2008, 12:17 PM
And who really knows if Chris Carpenter will ever be the same again? He'll turn 33 years old later this month, and this is the second major surgery he's been through. (Labrum sugery earlier in his career and now Tommy John). Factor in his age and arm problems and I'm not so sure you can count on Chris Carpenter being an ace again. The Cardinals really need to start rebuilding if you ask me. They severly lack young talent.

RedlegJake
04-04-2008, 04:01 PM
For years people have been talking about he dearth of young talent on the Cards but Jocketty managed to find vets from junkpiles or in shrewd trades that kept filling the voids. I wonder if Jocketty's successor is going to be as adept or if the Cards are facing a long stretch of sub parity.