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texasdave
03-24-2008, 12:52 PM
It looks as if the gauntlet has been tossed at our collective feet.


I think it would be interesting if someone would start a similar thread on the Sundeck and we can have a friendly competition between the ORG and Sundeck.

Are we not Sun Deckers? This challenge seems to me like just another opportunity to put our baseball knowledge on public display. I say let's accept this challenge in the spirit in which it was offered, and do our best to put a severe whoopin' on ORG. :D

The rule is pretty simple:

1)Pick a number between 0 and 162. JK. Just put down the number of wins the Reds will come up with in 2008. I will figure out the average early Monday and post the results. If you wish to jot down a line or two on how you arrived at that figure, so much the better.

I'll start all this prognosticating by revealing that the stars will line up for the Reds 86 times in 2008. Better starting and relief pitching and a simply monster year by AD are the prime reasons in the Reds' success story. EdE emerges from his 2 1/2 year cocoon to add a sorely-needed stick from the right side.

The game is on!!! :beerme:

shredda2000
03-24-2008, 12:53 PM
84 wins

bounty37h
03-24-2008, 12:57 PM
I was going to go with 81

bleedsred
03-24-2008, 01:17 PM
90 wins...EdE has breakout year...Dunn's in a contract year....JR has a huge option he wants picked up....the kids are hungry....lol

NorrisHopper30
03-24-2008, 01:28 PM
91

-EdE breakout year
-Dunn 50 homers
-Patterson hits .300+
-Griffey hits 30 again

AmarilloRed
03-24-2008, 01:33 PM
85 wins.

JWP
03-24-2008, 01:39 PM
86 wins.

CarolinaRedleg
03-24-2008, 01:40 PM
85 wins. The kids are allright.

Moosie52
03-24-2008, 01:40 PM
87.

Prf15
03-24-2008, 01:44 PM
85

mound_patrol
03-24-2008, 02:17 PM
78

OSUredsFAN
03-24-2008, 02:17 PM
85 W's

Win the NLC by 1 game over Cubbies

JBChance
03-24-2008, 02:48 PM
82 wins

The kids do alright, but will be better next year. Hopefully.

TheBigLebowski
03-24-2008, 02:52 PM
82

IowaRed
03-24-2008, 03:01 PM
75

jmac
03-24-2008, 03:03 PM
86 wins and heading in right direction.

Casey
03-24-2008, 03:16 PM
I'll say 88 Wins.

yab1112
03-24-2008, 03:31 PM
82 wins. the kids are gonna have some bumps along the way.

AccordinglyReds
03-24-2008, 03:46 PM
84

MotownRed
03-24-2008, 04:14 PM
80-82...Lack of starting pitching depth is what will cost us down the stretch.

CRedsLarkin11
03-24-2008, 04:49 PM
78 wins, hope springs eternal

BLEEDS
03-24-2008, 04:49 PM
On Paper, with break-out seasons from all the kiddies, and a healthy KGJ, and a bullpen resurgance, we COULD approach 90 wins.

However, Dusty is running the show, and methinks he runs too long with vets when they don't return from slumps, etc, and he won't put Votto in the 2-hole after AGon comes back from injury, putting our Opening Day lineup - which actually looks pretty decent given that we have Keppinger penciled in as the #2 hitter - in serious downgrade mode. I'd put our 3-6 hitters up against anyone in the NL Central, and arguably the entire NL. It's the 1-2 and 7-8 that will make the difference offensively.

We also are relying on 2 young guys for 40% of our rotation, and some combination of Fogg/Belisle/Bailey for the 5th spot. Our bullpen back-end should be MUCH better, but with Fogg and the rookies, I think our 6th/7th innings becomes our biggest challenge. That's where Affeldt/Coffey/Burton come in, and that's the shaky/biggest question mark part of our pen IMO. Stanton hopefully is only a loogy/long relief when losing guy, and Weathers and Cordero own the 8th/9th.

Optimistic: 90

Duty-mestic: 78

IFF you could assure me that we'd put Votto at #2 and AGon at #7 for the majority of the year and that the combo of Patterson/Hopper/Freel can put up a collective .333+ OBP in the #1 spot, I'd lean more toward the 90, because I think our bullpen CAN improve - it can't get any worse!

For now, I'll stick closer to the lower-end, but will split the difference almost down the middle at 83.

Anything over that mark, I will give full Credit to Dusty Baker for NOT messing things up, and actually Contributing to the player development - exclusively from a leadership/motivation perspective, because we know he (historically) cannot do it from a game management/stat perspective.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

EddieMilner
03-24-2008, 06:18 PM
78 Wins. They are on the right track but they are a year away from having it all come together.

Grande Donkey
03-24-2008, 06:21 PM
60 Wins. I don't think they will only win 60 games but I'm doing my best to bring the average down to a reasonable level.

texasdave
03-24-2008, 06:26 PM
ooops...delete

RedLegs1022
03-24-2008, 07:22 PM
Going to roll with 83 wins

Handofdeath
03-24-2008, 07:33 PM
93 wins. The poor relief staff kept the Reds out of the playoffs the last two seasons. That won't happen this year.

LouisvilleCARDS
03-24-2008, 07:42 PM
89 wins. I'm also calling this will be good enough to get us in the playoffs too. This of course hinges on health though.

Grande Donkey
03-24-2008, 07:43 PM
89 wins. I'm also calling this will be good enough to get us in the playoffs too. This of course hinges on health though.
Cards going down Thursday night :beerme:

_Sir_Charles_
03-24-2008, 07:53 PM
88 wins. Kids step up in the rotation and in the pen. Offense struggles though. Enough to keep the wins coming though. Astros, Pirates & Cardinals plummet to the bottom of the league.

Reds Fan Chris
03-24-2008, 08:02 PM
83, but I hope for more.

Trace's Daddy
03-24-2008, 08:14 PM
89 for me due to a better bullpen. Hopefully that wins the division.

Degenerate39
03-24-2008, 08:40 PM
162-0. That's right you heard it here first.

nmculbreth
03-24-2008, 08:42 PM
I'll go with 81. The addition of Francisco Cordero should make the Reds pen at least on par with the league average, which is a significant improvement over last season's squad. I expect the offense to be about the same with Edwin putting up better numbers to help offset Phillips' regression. The starters after Harang and Arroyo are certainly question marks but I can't help but feel they are an improvement over Milton and Lohse.

Dracodave
03-24-2008, 09:03 PM
I'll go with 81 wins. I really think the time improved but I think its only improved abit.

dlconn
03-24-2008, 09:06 PM
I'll go with 85.

757690
03-24-2008, 09:25 PM
95 wins. That's right.

1) Baker has won 100+ games in each of his first seasons with the Giants and Cubs.
2) The Reds roster reminds me very much of the Tigers in 2005, which also was lead for the first time by a veteran, winning manager.

Dracodave
03-24-2008, 09:36 PM
95 wins. That's right.

1) Baker has won 100+ games in each of his first seasons with the Giants and Cubs.
2) The Reds roster reminds me very much of the Tigers in 2005, which also was lead for the first time by a veteran, winning manager.


By this logic, World Series here we come! (Not to poke fun at you but I actually hope you're right!)

EddieMilner
03-25-2008, 12:50 AM
60 Wins. I don't think they will only win 60 games but I'm doing my best to bring the average down to a reasonable level.

Good call. Vegas has it at 78.5 (bodog.com). I hope its better, but my gut is saying no.

EddieMilner
03-25-2008, 12:51 AM
162-0. That's right you heard it here first.

Can I change my vote to 0-162 to even this one out?

BuckeyeRed27
03-25-2008, 01:16 AM
I'll go with 86

GoReds33
03-25-2008, 04:43 AM
I've got 87.

bianchiveloce
03-25-2008, 05:12 AM
80 wins.

Our young starting pitching will struggle like most young starting pitching does.

BLEEDS
03-25-2008, 11:30 AM
Good call. Vegas has it at 78.5 (bodog.com). I hope its better, but my gut is saying no.

Seriously I would take that bet. I think even with NO improvement from the lineup, our SP is improved enough to get close to .500, and Cordero in the bullpen should relieve us from at least 1/2 a dozen blown saves.

Milton, Shearn, etc... can be considered addition by subtraction, even if they were only replaced by "replacement players". Lohse is solid enough, but Cueto/Volquez/Fogg is LEAPS AND BOUNDS ahead of what we had in the 3-5 spot last year...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Newman4
03-25-2008, 12:42 PM
60 Wins. I don't think they will only win 60 games but I'm doing my best to bring the average down to a reasonable level.

120 games. Just to the make the average 90.

Biggin1985
03-25-2008, 12:46 PM
90 wins...EdE has breakout year...Dunn's in a contract year....JR has a huge option he wants picked up....the kids are hungry....lol

The kids are hungry, I liked that. Anyways, I am going to predict winning the central, why not? We have the offense and hopefully now we have the pitching, we have a lot of young arms and we should have some good pitchers coming from the bullpen.

A lot of people might look at me predicting winning the central and saying its crazy, I think it is very possible with the talent we have.

texasdave
03-25-2008, 12:48 PM
Let's try to keep this thing legitimate. No crazy predictions to raise or lower the group average. Sounds fair to me. Thanks.

reds2221
03-25-2008, 05:21 PM
I'm going to have to go with 85, possibly winning the wild card.

redsfanmia
03-25-2008, 07:20 PM
I think they can get between 88 and 92 wins, I will say 90 and 72. The real question is can we in the Sun Deck acutally have a prediction thread or is that one of the benefits of being on the big boy board?

DannyB
03-25-2008, 07:31 PM
94 wins
Mark it down!!

Betterread
03-25-2008, 09:49 PM
85 wins

gedred69
03-25-2008, 11:03 PM
80 wins as staus quo in conjunction w/ rigidity that fails to face facts. 88-90 if they let the cream rise to the top. (Time to bring on the youngins').

whackspliff
03-25-2008, 11:23 PM
88 wins

Edwin, Jr, Dunn, and Votto with 25+ HR's

At least three starters with 10+ wins.

I say that the Reds win the division straight up. SI has the Cubs losing to the Tigers in the World series. Are they nuts?

GO DUSTY!!

OUReds
03-26-2008, 01:32 AM
78 Wins, but a lot more fun to watch then in the past.

Stephenk29
03-26-2008, 02:21 AM
80

BearcatShane
03-26-2008, 02:35 AM
87. This is the best Reds team I'v seen in a while.

dl3looney
03-26-2008, 01:20 PM
87 wins and they'll win 75% of the series games against the Cubs during the season.

Nobody in the NL has seen Volquez and Cueto yet so they'll have the advantage this year if they throw strikes and don't press too hard. The 12 or so games we lost in the 8th inning alone will count for 10 more wins than last year.

Harang and Arroyo will each win at least 15 games and have record years for SO's.

BP will win the GG and SS at 2nd base. EE will finally produce like expected

and if all this happens I'm buying a lottery ticket today just in case I'm some sort of voodoo prognosticator.....or just your typical Spring Training Reds fan.....

Degenerate39
03-28-2008, 12:18 PM
My real prediction will be 87 wins. That should be enough to win the division.

texasdave
03-28-2008, 12:30 PM
A preliminary list has been compiled and is at the end of this post. Thanks to everyone who has participated. The final list will be compiled on the morning of Opening Day. (Simply getting a head start here) Sun Deck is certainly optimistic about the Reds chances in 2008. If our collective prognostications have any degree of accuracy about them, the Reds will seriously contend for a playoff spot this year. If anyone sees a mistake with their prediction, or wishes to change it, just PM me and I will make the necessary adjustments. The bottom three on the list did not predict the Reds to go winless. I am awaiting return PMs from them. If any new, or other, Sun Deckers wish to take a stab at the Reds' victory total for this season they are more than welcome. Once again the deadline will be the morning of Opening Day. Thanks. :)




Sun Deck Member PWT
757690 95
DannyB 94
Handofdeath 93
Newman4 93
NorrisHopper30 91
bleedsred 90
redsfanmia 90
LouisvilleCARDS 89
Trace's Daddy 89
Casey 88
Sir Charles 88
whackspliff 88
Moosie52 87
GoReds33 87
BearcatShane 87
dl3looney 87
texasdave 86
JWP 86
rocko 86
BuckeyeRed27 86
AmarilloRed 85
CarolineRedleg 85
Prf15 85
OSUredsFAN 85
dlconn 85
reds2221 85
Betterread 85
AccordinglyReds 84
BLEEDS 83
RedLegs1022 83
Reds Fan Chris 83
JBChance 82
TheBigLebowski 82
yab1112 82
bounty37h 81
MotownRed 81
nmculbreth 81
Dracodave 81
shredda2000 80
bianchiveloce 80
Stephenk29 80
mound patrol 78
CRedsLarkin11 78
EddieMilner 78
Grande Donkey 78
OUReds 78
IowaRed 75
Degenerate39 0
Biggin1985 0
gedred69 0

OesterPoster
03-28-2008, 12:32 PM
I'm going with 85. I'm usually more pessimistic, but my gut says above .500 this year.

On paper, the Pirates, Astros, and Cardinals look bad to me. That's 45 games, of which the Reds should win 2 out of every 3. 30 wins right there already. If they just split with the Brewers and Cubs, that's another 15 wins. 13 more games against bottom dwellers Washington and San Fran, so that's about 10 more wins.

I'm up to 55 wins already out of 88 games. Just win at least 30 out of the other 74, and you've got 85 wins.

See how easy that was? Print the playoff tickets right now. :)

texasdave
03-28-2008, 12:33 PM
My real prediction will be 87 wins. That should be enough to win the division.

You are down for 87. Thanks.

eichstadtreds
03-29-2008, 03:11 PM
92

redsfan1966
03-29-2008, 04:50 PM
81 games

NolaRed
03-29-2008, 07:17 PM
83 wins

captainmorgan07
03-29-2008, 07:24 PM
88 wins

DeadRedinCT
03-29-2008, 11:06 PM
After running six millions Atlantic City simulations, the average number of wins is 80. Which is my prediction.

texasdave
03-31-2008, 10:08 AM
It is Opening Day and here all the predictions have been totalled up. Sun Deck members are nothing if not optimistic about the Reds' chances in 2008. 56 SD members participated. Of those 56, nine foresee the Reds winning 90 or more times in 2008. That works out to roughly 16%. Conversely, nine members think the Reds will post a losing season in 2008. When all the numbers were finally crunched the 56 Sun Deckers prophesied a staggering 4,765 games that will belong to the Reds this season. Simply amazing. Divide that by 56 and you come up with a quite manageable (IMO) 85.1 wins. There you go. Will 85.1 wins be enough to win the Central Division and/or a wildcard spot? Check back in October. Thanks again to everyone that participated. :thumbup:



SD Member PWT
757690 95
Biggin1985 95
DannyB 94
Handofdeath 93
Newman4 93
eichstadtreds 92
NorrisHopper30 91
bleedsred 90
redsfanmia 90
LouisvilleCARDS 89
Trace's Daddy 89
Casey 88
Sir Charles 88
whackspliff 88
cptnmorgan07 88
Moosie52 87
GoReds33 87
BearcatShane 87
dl3looney 87
Degenerate39 87
gedred69 87
texasdave 86
JWP 86
rocko 86
BuckeyeRed27 86
AmarilloRed 85
CarolineRedleg 85
Prf15 85
OSUredsFAN 85
dlconn 85
reds2221 85
Betterread 85
OesterPoster 85
AccordinglyReds 84
shredda2000 84
BLEEDS 83
RedLegs1022 83
Reds Fan Chris 83
NolaRed 83
JBChance 82
TheBigLebowski 82
yab1112 82
bounty37h 81
MotownRed 81
nmculbreth 81
Dracodave 81
redsfan1966 81
bianchiveloce 80
Stephenk29 80
DeadRedinCT 80
mound patrol 78
CRedsLarkin11 78
EddieMilner 78
Grande Donkey 78
OUReds 78
IowaRed 75

elfmanvt07
03-31-2008, 11:29 AM
Mark me down for 84. Dropping Stanton probably netted us 5 wins.