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View Full Version : Bronson Arroyo as the Reds #4 starter?



fearofpopvol1
04-06-2008, 05:54 PM
I know I know, it's way early in the season.

However, do you think by the end of the season that Arroyo could be the 4th best pitcher on this staff?? Could Harang slip and be #2 or #3? What do you think? It's obviously very early and there are a lot of games to play for all of these pitchers, but it's interesting to ponder.

princeton
04-06-2008, 05:56 PM
Arroyo's always been a 4. But he's a good 4 ;)

fearofpopvol1
04-06-2008, 06:01 PM
You think? I know some on here would consider him a #2, but I've always thought of him as a really solid #3 starter.

OnBaseMachine
04-06-2008, 06:04 PM
Josh Fogg is a #2, if you know what I mean.

RedlegJake
04-06-2008, 06:04 PM
Harang remains #1 this year. He's the leader of this staff. I truly hope Cueto and Volquez push him for that title but he has the veteran presence in the best sense of the phrase. Arroyo is already #4 in my mind. He gives the Reds a crafty type to throw between the rookies, and I can't help but think his loose and easy personality will also be an asset to help keep the younger guys relaxed. All in all, if you're going to bring a pair of rookies to the rotation, it's hard to imagine a better setup for them than they have.

missionhockey21
04-06-2008, 06:15 PM
Harang remains #1 this year. He's the leader of this staff. I truly hope Cueto and Volquez push him for that title but he has the veteran presence in the best sense of the phrase.
No question. I understand why some could hope that Harang would be viewed as the #2 or the #3, by hoping guys like Cueto and Volquez are THAT much better than he currently is, so it's of no offense to Harang. However, Harang is our staff ace, he has earned that respect and has finally gotten some mainstream sports attention for his talent. I think both Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez are not looking at the situation like some fans are, if anything they look at the numbers he has put up over the past few seasons and want to learn as much as they can from a guy who has steadily and constantly improved to being one of the NL's finest.

If it was game seven in the World Series, I know I would want Aaron Harang taking that game. I wouldn't even think twice about it.

Let the young guys learn from what could be a great teacher before declaring either one the master. Harang has a phenomenal work ethic and a great presence in tight situations, which I truly hope that Bailey-Cueto-Volquez can all work to learn those attributes to compliment their ability.

harangatang
04-06-2008, 06:20 PM
The way I see it is Aaron Harang is like C.C. Sabathia and Cueto/Volquez are like Fausto Carmona. Harang is your big guy (in more ways then one) in front and then you have your fire throwing Latino pitchers behind him. Add in a Brian Lawrence type innings-eating pitcher in at #4 with Arroyo and you have a pretty formidable rotation.

MrCinatit
04-06-2008, 06:27 PM
If Homer gets his head together, think of the possibilities.

Buckeye33
04-06-2008, 06:29 PM
Add in a Brian Lawrence type innings-eating pitcher in at #4 with Arroyo and you have a pretty formidable rotation.

I really think Belisle can be that #5 starter who will pitch well enough to keep the team in most games and sprinkle in games where he'll go 7 IP 2 R.

I'm really really looking forward to watching this starting rotation all season.

OldRightHander
04-06-2008, 06:38 PM
Josh Fogg is a #2, if you know what I mean.

The Reds have had plenty of those over the years.

PuffyPig
04-06-2008, 06:39 PM
I think some are getting ahead of themselves about Cueto and Volquez.

They are great,young talents, but it's quite odd for rookies to come into the league and consistently dominate from the get go.

Let's see what they accomplish over 10 starts or so (or even two) before we jump the gun.

Arroyo a guy that will give you 200 +innings with a ERA around 4 in GAP.That pretty well makes him a #2.

How many pitchers in the NL can get you that?

Over the last two years, only 7 pitchers in the NL have gotten 200+ innings and an ERA of 4.25 or below each year.

Arroyo
Webb
Harang
Smoltz
Oswalt
Zambrano
Peavy

Let some suggest he is a #4.

RedsManRick
04-06-2008, 07:03 PM
I don't care about the order, but I'm absolutely thrilled that we have 4 starters who on any given day can go out and dominate. For too long we've had a staff who, in a good day, merely kept us in the game. The elimination of those disaster starts will have an enormously positive effect on both the rotation itself, but also on the pen.

BCubb2003
04-06-2008, 07:03 PM
I suppose the number of the starter is about the most team-dependent stat there is.

MartyFan
04-06-2008, 07:05 PM
I think on many staff's Arroyo would be a number 3...I think right now, he is our #2 (actually the number 2)...one outing is encouraging but one start does not a career or a season make.

I am glad the young guns have gotten off to a good start but there is a lot of baseball to play and BA and AH are our top guns for sure...at least for the foreseeable future.

edabbs44
04-06-2008, 07:23 PM
I think some are getting ahead of themselves about Cueto and Volquez.

They are great,young talents, but it's quite odd for rookies to come into the league and consistently dominate from the get go.

Let's see what they accomplish over 10 starts or so (or even two) before we jump the gun.

Arroyo a guy that will give you 200 +innings with a ERA around 4 in GAP.That pretty well makes him a #2.

How many pitchers in the NL can get you that?

Over the last two years, only 7 pitchers in the NL have gotten 200+ innings and an ERA of 4.25 or below each year.

Arroyo
Webb
Harang
Smoltz
Oswalt
Zambrano
Peavy

Let some suggest he is a #4.

100%. There is a lot of value in consistency. While we are all excited about the potential of both Cueto and Volquez, odds are that they will experience some pretty rocky starts.

Cueto and Volquez have pretty high ceilings, but Arroyo's floor is a lot higher. That is so valuable.

KoryMac5
04-06-2008, 08:31 PM
I like Bronson where he is. Dusty has done a good job splitting this rotation up between hard throwers and more finesse pitchers. It will be interesting to see what happens when Belisle gets back. Will Volquez jump up to the 4 slot or will he stay at 5.

Far East
04-07-2008, 10:03 AM
I don't care about the order...
Same here, except that Arroyo just might be an ideal "soft tosser" (relatively) to place in the rotation between Cueto and Volquez. I know that Fogg is there currently, but probably either Belisle or Bailey will be in the mix in the long run.

RedsManRick
04-07-2008, 10:07 AM
Same here, except that Arroyo just might be an ideal "soft tosser" (relatively) to place in the rotation between Cueto and Volquez. I know that Fogg is there currently, but probably either Belisle or Bailey will be in the mix in the long run.

I just wonder whether or not there's any evidence that alternating pitcher style matters. I understand the logic, but that doesn't make it true.

Strikes Out Looking
04-07-2008, 11:20 AM
If Bronson pitches 200 innings with a sub 4 era, it doesn't really matter what number he is assigned. It's about giving a good performance every 5th day, allowing your team to win and allowing the bullpen to not be overused. Additionally, his delivery and style is a good contrast to Harang, Cuteo and Volquez.

RedEye
04-07-2008, 02:22 PM
The way I see it is Aaron Harang is like C.C. Sabathia and Cueto/Volquez are like Fausto Carmona.

I appreciate the analogy, but Carmona isn't nearly the strikeout pitcher those two guys are...

HokieRed
04-07-2008, 02:26 PM
Arroyo thus far: two years of heavy work starting to show up? Let's hope not.

redsrule2500
04-07-2008, 03:22 PM
Do I hear number 5? lol jk

SMcGavin
04-07-2008, 03:40 PM
I just wonder whether or not there's any evidence that alternating pitcher style matters. I understand the logic, but that doesn't make it true.

I wonder the same thing. However I don't see how it could hurt anything as long as Arroyo, Volquez, and Cueto are all getting equal starts, so I am fine with Dusty doing it. It's a baseball "truism" that, if false, seems pretty harmless.

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2008, 03:51 PM
I wouldn't get too down on Arroyo for having 1 bad start against a great lineup. Let's just hope he bounces back next time.

Cyclone792
04-07-2008, 03:52 PM
Arroyo thus far: two years of heavy work starting to show up? Let's hope not.

Somewhere down in North Carolina, or wherever he may be, Narron the Baseball Guy is chuckling to himself.

Jpup
04-07-2008, 03:53 PM
Somewhere down in North Carolina, or wherever he may be, Narron the Baseball Guy is chuckling to himself.

Texas. :)

membengal
04-07-2008, 05:23 PM
I believe he had 6 Ks today against 0 walks. That's not a bad sign. Sometimes good teams punish mistakes in bunches, and that is probably what happened today. No big deal. Make no mistake about it, the Phills are an extremely good offensive baseball team.

reds44
04-07-2008, 05:26 PM
He's ideally a 3rd or 4th starter. He's going to eat innings, show flashes oh brillance and at other times struggle. I'm not worried about him, but he's never going to pitch like he did in 2006, and there is nothing wrong with him.

Ideally, the Reds rotation looks like this.
Harang
Cueto
Volquez
Arroyo
Belisle

That's a good rotation top to bottom, which is why as the two young pitchers go, the Reds will go.

GAC
04-07-2008, 09:51 PM
Arroyo's always been a 4. But he's a good 4 ;)

I agree. He's only a #2 on the Reds. :p:

Look at the guys overall career numbers. That is not indicative of a #2 on a majority of teams IMO

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2008, 09:51 PM
I believe he had 6 Ks today against 0 walks. That's not a bad sign. Sometimes good teams punish mistakes in bunches, and that is probably what happened today. No big deal. Make no mistake about it, the Phills are an extremely good offensive baseball team.

I agree completely. Not to mention, the umpire had a horrible strike zone and for someone like Arroyo, that's bad news.

GAC
04-07-2008, 10:13 PM
I believe he had 6 Ks today against 0 walks. That's not a bad sign. Sometimes good teams punish mistakes in bunches, and that is probably what happened today.

That's true mem; but it seems teams really know how to capitalize on BA's mistakes. 4 Hrs through 5 innings?

In 10.2 Innings this year he has given up 13 hits, 7 ERs, 5 Hrs, and carries an ERA of 5.91.

Through two games last year, he had similar results. He was 0-2, in which he gave up 12 hits, 6 ERs, 13 Ks, ERA of 4.5.

I agree that Bronson gets his strikeouts and holds the walks down. But the mistakes is what kills him.

And I will also acknowledge that last year the BP really screwed him on a few of his starts.

But the bottomline is... he went 9-15 last year, and overall, IMHO, he's his own worst enemy.

I'm not an Arroyo hater. Just he just somewhat disappoints me. He had a solid year in his initial year with the Reds (2006); but after that? Ho-hum.

WMR
04-07-2008, 10:14 PM
He's definitely #1 in stupid commercials.

blumj
04-07-2008, 10:49 PM
I agree that Bronson gets his strikeouts and holds the walks down. But the mistakes is what kills him.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=909365#post909365

You inspired me to go dig this up. Well, you and the memory of Vermonter's Arroyo analysis.

SMcGavin
04-07-2008, 10:49 PM
He's ideally a 3rd or 4th starter. He's going to eat innings, show flashes oh brillance and at other times struggle. I'm not worried about him, but he's never going to pitch like he did in 2006, and there is nothing wrong with him.

Ideally, the Reds rotation looks like this.
Harang
Cueto
Volquez
Arroyo
Belisle

That's a good rotation top to bottom, which is why as the two young pitchers go, the Reds will go.

Agreed. The innings-eating ability of Arroyo is also really important so the Reds can manage the pitch counts of Volquez and Cueto. It's especially important if Arroyo is placed between them in the rotation. Arroyo was always miscast as a #2, but if you are just counting on him to give you 200+ innings of 4.25-4.50 ERA, I've got no concerns that he will be able to do that.

WVPacman
04-08-2008, 01:10 AM
He's definitely #1 in stupid commercials.

I can't stand those commercials of his...I wish he would put the commercials and music on hold and consentrate more on his piching.:rolleyes:

membengal
04-08-2008, 09:59 AM
It's not like I am forwarding Arroyo for the HoF, just noting that on a day when the ump was horrific with his strike zone, Arroyo didn't walk anyone. Unfortunately, Arroyo is the kind of pitcher who needs the plate to be called somewhat sanely, otherwise if he has to catch too much of it too often, he will give up homeruns. We all know that though, so nothing about today was too surprising. It's the bad with the good that comes with Arroyo. As long as Cueto and Volquez can be decent though, Arroyo as is, is just fine for this rotation. And, again, the Phils are uniquely suited to harm mistakes. That's a very, very, very good offensive ballclub.

WebScorpion
04-08-2008, 12:25 PM
It's way too early in the season for these types of discussions. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/ad/baby.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

Strikes Out Looking
04-08-2008, 12:42 PM
It's not like I am forwarding Arroyo for the HoF, just noting that on a day when the ump was horrific with his strike zone, Arroyo didn't walk anyone. Unfortunately, Arroyo is the kind of pitcher who needs the plate to be called somewhat sanely, otherwise if he has to catch too much of it too often, he will give up homeruns. We all know that though, so nothing about today was too surprising. It's the bad with the good that comes with Arroyo. As long as Cueto and Volquez can be decent though, Arroyo as is, is just fine for this rotation. And, again, the Phils are uniquely suited to harm mistakes. That's a very, very, very good offensive ballclub.

Exactly--a different ump and Bronson goes 7 and gives up maybe 2, 3 at most.

GAC
04-08-2008, 07:24 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?p=909365#post909365

You inspired me to go dig this up. Well, you and the memory of Vermonter's Arroyo analysis.


A solid analysis. Thanks for posting that. Here's what really caught my attention from that post, concerning BA being primarily a flyball pitcher, which is a problem at GABP (wasn't that one of the huge criticisms of Milton?).....


Overall, Arroyo is something of an enigma. He has nasty stuff, but he makes a lot of mistakes. Those mistakes are almost exclusively deep fly balls - doubles in Fenway. His drop in K-rate is probably less significant than it might seem, given that fly balls are really his bread and butter. If there were a way for the Sox to use him more on the road than at home, he would probably be more effective. He doesn't walk many hitters (although his high HBP rates can counter that) and gives up very few singles, so with good defensive support, he can still give up his share of doubles with minimal damage. I can't project whether he will improve over 2005 numbers (because two seasons do not make a trend), but I think he's still a very useful pitcher on this staff.

GAC
04-08-2008, 07:38 PM
I wasn't able to watch the game the other day; but does anyone know what type of pitches were thrown by BA on the 4 Hrs?

Spitball
04-08-2008, 07:50 PM
Like batters, pitchers can have bad streaks. I doubt Adam Dunn is hitting .143 in another month, and I doubt Arroyo has an ERA near six. The problem for pitchers is they can't work daily on their mechanics, but I expect BA to turn things around.

RedlegJake
04-08-2008, 08:29 PM
Arroyo is k'ing a batter an inning, so he's missing bats. He's just getting killed when he makes mistakes. I think as the weather wrms up so will Bronson.

gm
04-08-2008, 08:30 PM
Current rotation:

Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Fogg

Anyone want to guess what it will be after the off-day next week?

(me either)

I suspect Baker/Pole know who will be slotted where, a week or two in advance. Why it matters whether fans (or Nick Brunker?) think Arroyo is (or should be) a 2,3,4 is the real mystery, to me. If the Reds get to the postseason and need to decide on a playoff rotation, then it becomes more of an issue

Redmachine2003
04-08-2008, 08:51 PM
I like the rotation the way it is, with Cueto 4th and Fogg 5th. For Cueto being his rookie year he will be going against the #4 starters around the league and take some pressure off the kid. This will set him up to have a big rookie year if he keeps pitching the way he has through the spring and the start of the year. Arroyo is missing his personal catcher, Ross. Ross and Arroyo was a great combo there for awhile

GAC
04-08-2008, 09:20 PM
Arroyo is k'ing a batter an inning, so he's missing bats. He's just getting killed when he makes mistakes. I think as the weather wrms up so will Bronson.

I hope so. I really do. But other then his initial year with the Reds, has he shown this to be true throughout his career?

blumj
04-08-2008, 10:35 PM
A solid analysis. Thanks for posting that. Here's what really caught my attention from that post, concerning BA being primarily a flyball pitcher, which is a problem at GABP (wasn't that one of the huge criticisms of Milton?).....

That was what you had reminded me of, but this stood out to me a little considering the current circumstances.


He gives an awful lot of the credit for his resurgence in Boston after wearing his welcome out in Pittsburgh to catcher Jason Varitek. I'm not sure how much of that is really true, but the fact that he said it and apparently believes it would indicate that he is very catcher-sensitive - that he needs a good relationship with his catcher. Arroyo throws a variety of breaking stuff and mixes in a decent fastball and so-so change, and generally has real good location. With that kind of repertoire, it's important to work the hitters together as a pitcher-catcher team.

WebScorpion
04-09-2008, 04:12 PM
Current rotation:

Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Fogg

Anyone want to guess what it will be after the off-day next week?



Sure, I have 2 guesses:

After the day off (which is on Fogg's day to pitch):

Harang (on his normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days rest)
Volquez (1 extra day)
Arroyo (1 extra day)
Cueto (1 extra day)

OR

Harang (normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days)
Arroyo (normal rest)
Volquez (2 extra days)
Cueto (1 extra day)

I think they're going to try to save wear and tear on the young guys, but I'm not sure whether they'll keep Bronson on a steady program or rotate him with the kids. Fogg's whole purpose here is to eat innings to keep from burning up prospects before their time.

Benihana
04-09-2008, 04:18 PM
Sure, I have 2 guesses:

After the day off (which is on Fogg's day to pitch):

Harang (on his normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days rest)
Volquez (1 extra day)
Arroyo (1 extra day)
Cueto (1 extra day)

OR

Harang (normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days)
Arroyo (normal rest)
Volquez (2 extra days)
Cueto (1 extra day)

I think they're going to try to save wear and tear on the young guys, but I'm not sure whether they'll keep Bronson on a steady program or rotate him with the kids. Fogg's whole purpose here is to eat innings to keep from burning up prospects before their time.

So you really think Cueto will pitch on Saturday? That would be great! :thumbup:

redsrule2500
04-09-2008, 06:06 PM
Amazingly enough, he was the #6 starter in Boston...so it's not that surprising. I think he makes a solid #4, a decent #3, and a weak #2.

gm
04-09-2008, 09:04 PM
Sure, I have 2 guesses:

After the day off (which is on Fogg's day to pitch):

Harang (on his normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days rest)
Volquez (1 extra day)
Arroyo (1 extra day)
Cueto (1 extra day)

OR

Harang (normal rest)
Fogg (2 extra days)
Arroyo (normal rest)
Volquez (2 extra days)
Cueto (1 extra day)

I think they're going to try to save wear and tear on the young guys, but I'm not sure whether they'll keep Bronson on a steady program or rotate him with the kids. Fogg's whole purpose here is to eat innings to keep from burning up prospects before their time.

From Fay's notes today it sounds like Dusty/Pole are considering skipping over Fogg's next start. It probably depends on how Josh does tonight...

M2
04-09-2008, 09:22 PM
I think he makes a solid #4, a decent #3, and a weak #2.

That's my take too.