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TRF
04-07-2008, 01:05 PM
So I keep hearing and reading that EE is lost at the plate right now. He's hitting .125

I haven't heard or read a thing that says Dunn is lost at the plate. He's hitting .176

EE has 8 BB's so far this young season for a very good .417 OBP. Dunn is being Dunn and has walked 6 times giving him a .391 OBP.

So, why is EE lost and not Dunn? Easy, EE seems to be the whipping boy. A personal favorite of Brantley's, and Marty seems to have jumped ship from Dunn to EE as well. Kinda sad that they need to tear down good young players. The hits will fall for Edwin. That he's not expanding his strikezone and reaching for balls he can't hit is a good thing. And I'll take that .417 OBP all year long thank you.

smith288
04-07-2008, 01:07 PM
good post

Jpup
04-07-2008, 01:08 PM
I think they will both be fine. Dunn has hit some balls hard, but right at someone. Take Sunday for example. Who has said EE is lost? Marty?

dougdirt
04-07-2008, 01:09 PM
Edwin is expanding his strikezone though, he has chased quite a few low outside breaking pitches that sent him back to the dugout. He is doing a great job getting on base, especially considering he is not hitting the ball.

TRF
04-07-2008, 01:15 PM
I think they will both be fine. Dunn has hit some balls hard, but right at someone. Take Sunday for example. Who has said EE is lost? Marty?

I've read it a lot in the game threads. Brantley has a well documented anti-EE bias going on (he is NOT clutch). I haven't heard Marty yet this year, but heard him a number of times last year. So I can't say for sure that Marty is doing it.

But a lot of Redzoner's are. And that is a very large sample of fans with a variety of opinions and different knowledge levels.

redsmetz
04-07-2008, 01:17 PM
I've read it a lot in the game threads. Brantley has a well documented anti-EE bias going on (he is NOT clutch). I haven't heard Marty yet this year, but heard him a number of times last year. So I can't say for sure that Marty is doing it.

But a lot of Redzoner's are. And that is a very large sample of fans with a variety of opinions and different knowledge levels.

Marty was pretty honked off with EE's attempt at bunting saying how clueless he looked. I thought I heard him say to Thom yesterday that the walks are a plus for EE thus far this season, but maybe I'm "misremembering".

Joseph
04-07-2008, 01:17 PM
If you watch EE closely, it looks like he's guessing a lot and perhaps, perhaps he's not seeing the ball too well.

jojo
04-07-2008, 01:21 PM
If you watch EE closely, it looks like he's guessing a lot and perhaps, perhaps he's not seeing the ball too well.

I was joking about EE to some friends that EE has old-man skills at the plate. Any chance he's really 42? :cool:

dfs
04-07-2008, 01:21 PM
So, why is EE lost and not Dunn?

Because for the first time in his career Edwin looks tentative at the plate. He pulls off of pitches he should be swinging at and has been swinging at ...well pitches that would make Vlad blush. It's not Edwin's results that have me concerned, it's how it looks. One of the first thing you noticed watching Edwin in the past was that he came up to the plate with an idea or two in his head about what he was trying to do. I just don't see that now.

Dunn, on the other hand, doesn't look tentative at all. He's just not making contact and we've seen that out of Adam before.


Easy, EE seems to be the whipping boy.
huh. whatever.

westofyou
04-07-2008, 01:23 PM
I think currently EE walks more because of who is behind him, which is good because sometimes he does look lost so far.

TRF
04-07-2008, 01:24 PM
huh. whatever.

Jeff Brantley says hi.

RedsManRick
04-07-2008, 01:28 PM
I mentioned this in another thread, but It seems EE has a problem with pitch recognition, especially with breaking stuff. Luckily, he's more patient than most and so his walks help offset it, but we all saw it in the bunt-HR at bat. He flailed at that curve over the plate, falling back as he tried to bunt. He lunges at sliders and curves way off the plate and steps in the bucket on breaking stuff over the plate, rolling over on it when he makes contact.

Has this been his bugaboo historically? Could it be a vision thing? What's the prescription? I'd love to see him bat 2nd for a while, pushing Keppinger up to leadoff and CPat down to 6 or 7. Ask him to focus on contact, take advantage of those walks, and maybe get an extra fastball or two per game.

MWM
04-07-2008, 01:30 PM
It's more a matter of watching here than looking at the stat sheet. My perception from watching EE is that he looks extremely uncomfortable at the plate. He's consistently off-balance and not even getting good cuts on the ball. To me, that's how you can tell if a hitter is truly a little lost or if it's an anomlay, by looking at how many good cuts they're getting.

Dunn doesn't look great at the plate, but his ABs look markedly different in my perception. He's getting good swings on the ball, but just isn't quite connecting yet. Also, yesterday in Dunn's first two ABs, he hit the ball right on the screws. The first one was hit right to the 1B who caught it for an out. The next one he drilled right back at the pitcher who knocked it down and then made the play at first. His next AB he hit a line drive up the middle for an RBI single. So he's actually hit some balls hard.

Again, the two hitters just look different. EE doesn't look great in his ABs right now. The good news is, he's not swinging at a lot of bad pitches, hence the walks. That's a good sign. That means he'll most likely figure it out at some point. But looking at the stat sheet for one week's worth of ABs isn't a very helpful exercise.

CrackerJack
04-07-2008, 01:39 PM
It would be nice if both of them weren't not-hitting at the same time though. Of course they'll carry the team when they get hot.

RedsManRick
04-07-2008, 01:42 PM
It would be nice if both of them weren't not-hitting at the same time though. Of course they'll carry the team when they get hot.

But the point is that Dunn IS hitting, he's just not getting hits. There is a difference.

RedlegJake
04-07-2008, 01:57 PM
EE kind of reminds me of Aaron Boone at he plate. Streaky as get out. When he's cold he's stone ice cold and looks hopeless. When he's hot no one can throw it by him. The best prescription is to let him play through it, maybe a day off here and there. I still believe Edwin will put up decent numbers this year.

I agree Dunn looks like he's getting locked in, pretty soon now he's going to break out.

Steve4192
04-07-2008, 02:28 PM
EE kind of reminds me of Aaron Boone at he plate. Streaky as get out. When he's cold he's stone ice cold and looks hopeless. When he's hot no one can throw it by him.

The difference being, EE can still get on base even when he is struggling. When Aaron was struggling, he was worthless.

Highlifeman21
04-07-2008, 03:02 PM
The difference being, EE can still get on base even when he is struggling. When Aaron was struggling, he was worthless.

I don't remember Aaron Boone having much value except to play all over the diamond.

Offensively, I remember Aaron Boone being just North of Juan Castro.

dabvu2498
04-07-2008, 03:09 PM
I don't remember Aaron Boone having much value except to play all over the diamond.

Offensively, I remember Aaron Boone being just North of Juan Castro.

He was a darn bit better than that. Not great, but average or a little bit better at times.

But, yes, he was prone to slumps.

redsrule2500
04-07-2008, 03:15 PM
OR because he has yet to have a full successful season in his career. That could have something to do with it.

dougdirt
04-07-2008, 03:49 PM
Here is Edwin so far in 2008. Not all data is here from the Pitch F/X, but its over 90% of it.

http://www.redsminorleagues.com/redspitchfx/images/edwinzone.gif

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2008, 03:49 PM
I would argue that Dunn has looked more "lost" at the plate than EdE (even though I know he's taken a few more walks).

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2008, 03:51 PM
OR because he has yet to have a full successful season in his career. That could have something to do with it.

Except that's not true. Encarnacion OPS'ed .832 as a 23-year old in 2006. He was OPSing over .900 into the first week of September before going into a slump that saw his OPS drop to .832.

Jpup
04-07-2008, 03:51 PM
I have been wondering is Dusty's edict of swinging more with 2 strikes and all that doesn't have some of the guys messed up (Dunn, EE, Votto, etc.). I think Dunn has swung at a lot of bad pitches with 2 strikes, but maybe it's just placebo since the comment. Is there anyway to find that out?

dougdirt
04-07-2008, 04:16 PM
I have been wondering is Dusty's edict of swinging more with 2 strikes and all that doesn't have some of the guys messed up (Dunn, EE, Votto, etc.). I think Dunn has swung at a lot of bad pitches with 2 strikes, but maybe it's just placebo since the comment. Is there anyway to find that out?

We could compare the pitch f/x data from last year to this year.... but its way too early to tell much of anything in terms of that for this years data.

dfs
04-07-2008, 04:53 PM
Doug. Thanks for posting that. I'm guessing that such a chart would not be available from last year for comparison's sake?

redsrule2500
04-07-2008, 05:18 PM
Except that's not true. Encarnacion OPS'ed .832 as a 23-year old in 2006. He was OPSing over .900 into the first week of September before going into a slump that saw his OPS drop to .832.

Yeah, I said FULL season. Not...5/6 months

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2008, 05:18 PM
Yeah, I said FULL season. Not...5/6 months

He put up an .832 OPS over a full season.

dougdirt
04-07-2008, 05:20 PM
Doug. Thanks for posting that. I'm guessing that such a chart would not be available from last year for comparison's sake?

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=0&bat=429665&type=-1&result=-1&count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

Try that link, it should generate the picture. Its fairly cluttered though.

Reds1
04-07-2008, 06:46 PM
Edwin is expanding his strikezone though, he has chased quite a few low outside breaking pitches that sent him back to the dugout. He is doing a great job getting on base, especially considering he is not hitting the ball.


I've not really heard this - I mean he's the reason we won 1 of our 3 games. He hasn't looked good and seeing the attempted bunts. I mean there is holes in his offense, but he can hit and seems to be CLUTCH :).

Also, dunn has just missed 3-4 balls he just got under, but today I didn't see the game, but it sounded like he was lost.

cincrazy
04-07-2008, 06:55 PM
The clock is ticking on Edwin Encarnacion. Hit, or lose your job to Keppinger. Simple as that. If you take away his one walk off home run, he has looked lost at the plate IMO. And even that home run was a product of a pitch thrown right down the pipe. If Lyon would have thrown a breaking pitch in the dirt, Edwin would have went back to the dugout with his head down.

I'm not saying he can't come out of it, but I don't think Marty, Jeff, etc. have been excessive in their criticism of him. We NEED this guy to be consistent if we're going to reach our potential, and so far he's fallen flat on his face. Hopefully he picks himself back up, because if not, he won't be around by the end of the year.

Kc61
04-07-2008, 07:25 PM
Unless the Reds get production from a right handed power bat (in addition to Phillips), they will be destroyed by lefty pitching this year and into the future. You cannot beat lefties only by cribbing together a few lefty hitters, like Dunn and Griff, who "aren't bad" against lefties. You need a couple of big time righty hitters who destroy lefty pitching.

So EE must come around or he needs to be replaced by a better righty hitter.

If Reds want an OBP, non-power guy at third, they are better off with Keppinger. If they want a power bat at third -- as they should -- it is time for EE to step up.

Meanwhile, Todd Frazier is off to a good start at Dayton, let's please fast track him.

jojo
04-07-2008, 09:00 PM
The clock is ticking on Edwin Encarnacion.

You do realize he's had a grand total of 20 at bats thus far?


Hit, or lose your job to Keppinger.

As much as he fits the Cincinnati puppy love mold, Keppy isn't an everyday player.

The Reds best chances lie in EE. Stick him in the lineup and forget about him.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2008, 09:09 PM
Jeff Keppinger has a career .316/.373/.459 stat line through 440 atbats. That's not quite a full season but it's getting close. If a guy hits like that then he's an everyday player in my book. He needs to be the everyday SS. EdE will be fine at third base IMO.

deltachi8
04-07-2008, 09:16 PM
He does look a bit lost, but could he be a slow starter?

I find it more curios that there are those who say that about Votto (he always starts slow, don't worry), but the same won't apply to Edwin.

ALl that said, this is a big year for Edwin. I love his talent and think he can be a star, but he has to be able to put it all together. They have time to give him to do just that this year, and I hope they allow it.

(of course, I thought Willie Green was a sure fire stud, so don;t take what i say as being worth anything).


...And even that home run was a product of a pitch thrown right down the pipe. If Lyon would have thrown a breaking pitch in the dirt, Edwin would have went back to the dugout with his head down.



Or he could have laid off it, eventually taken a walk and the guy behind him becomes a hero. Who knows? It's hard to play what ifs

GAC
04-07-2008, 09:22 PM
Dunn is a 27 yr old who has established himself over the years. EE is a 24 yr old who hasn't as of yet due to his inconsistent play.

People aren't worried about Dunn, especially after only the first week of the season, because we know what he is going to do overall. The verdict is still out on EE.

But lets be fair here. Dunn has also received his fair share of criticism... K's too much, can't hit in the clutch, a joke defensively. Where has that came from for the most part?

People need to quit listening to the Daughertys and Martys.

I almost fell out of my chair last year when Marty, during one of Hopper's hot spells, stated during a broadcast that he prefers Hopper in LF over Dunn.

I actually like listening to Marty. I've just learned to ignore some of his inane observations.

It's too early in the season to be worrying.

reds44
04-07-2008, 09:29 PM
I'm not worried about Dunn, Edwin, Votto, or Hatteberg. Not one of them, nor do I expect Jeff Keppinger to hit .423/.483/.769 all season long. We're 7 games into a 162 game schedule. If Edwin had a 2/20 stretch in July nobody would bat an eye, and Dunn at 3/21 isn't much better.

Edwin's, Dunn's, Votto's, and Hatteberg's numbers will go up, and Keppinger's and Phillips' will go down.

lollipopcurve
04-07-2008, 09:30 PM
Edwin is a bit of a mystery.

That is all.

jojo
04-07-2008, 09:36 PM
Jeff Keppinger has a career .316/.373/.459 stat line through 440 atbats. That's not quite a full season but it's getting close. If a guy hits like that then he's an everyday player in my book. He needs to be the everyday SS. EdE will be fine at third base IMO.

In 1980, Miguel Dilone went .341/.375/.432 in 528 AB for Cleveland. Was he an everyday player?

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2008, 09:41 PM
In 1980, Miguel Dilone went .341/.375/.432 in 528 AB for Cleveland. Was he an everyday player?

I have no idea what Miguel Dilone has to do with Jeff Keppinger or even what your point is.

reds44
04-07-2008, 09:43 PM
I have no idea what Miguel Dilone has to do with Jeff Keppinger or even what your point is.
440 ABs doesn't make somebody an everyday player. Not saying I agree with him, but it's pretty obvious that is his point.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2008, 09:47 PM
Keppinger also hit .320/.373/.419 in the minors. The guy has did nothing but hit ever since becoming a pro. I fail to see why he can't be an everyday player.

KoryMac5
04-07-2008, 11:14 PM
Edwin has traditionally been a slow starter throughout his career. I would imagine once the weather starts to warm up he will be more comfortable. It has always been my observation that players from the Dominican etc... take a while longer to get used to the chilly spring temps. When I was in the military many latino's often commented that when it was in the 50's it felt more like the 40's to them.

As far as Keppinger goes: The guy can hit, and as long as he is hitting at this clip he deserves a spot in the lineup as an everyday player.

dougdirt
04-07-2008, 11:22 PM
Keppinger also hit .320/.373/.419 in the minors. The guy has did nothing but hit ever since becoming a pro. I fail to see why he can't be an everyday player.

Because the positions he can play defense at, he doesn't really hit enough to play at, at least for the Reds. He isn't going to play over BP at 2B, he shouldn't play over Edwin or any of the corner outfielders.

Screwball
04-08-2008, 01:46 AM
Because the positions he can play defense at, he doesn't really hit enough to play at, at least for the Reds. He isn't going to play over BP at 2B, he shouldn't play over Edwin or any of the corner outfielders.

Then leave him at SS. From what I've seen, he's been solid defensively there.

Jpup
04-08-2008, 02:14 AM
I'm not sure what you are watching if you don't believe Jeff Keppinger should be in the lineup everyday. I've been amazed at what I have seen out of him. He's a really good hitter and adequate anywhere they put him on defense. A guy like that, the Reds should make a place for him. The Reds could trade Hatteberg or even Votto if they got enough in return and play him @ 1st against lefties and then let him play short against righties. I absolutely can't see a reason to do anything different than put him in the 2 hole everyday. That is one thing that I agree with Dusty on. Every time you look up, Keppinger is on base.

Ron Madden
04-08-2008, 03:45 AM
Every time you look up, Keppinger is on base.

So far Kepp has 26 ABs with 11 hits and 3 BBs, on base 14 times.

So far EE has had 20 ABs with 2 hits and 8 BBs, on base 10 times.

I think Marty and Jeff have plenty to do with what many of us think we see when we look up.

:)

dougdirt
04-08-2008, 04:09 AM
Then leave him at SS. From what I've seen, he's been solid defensively there.

That may be the best solution, although its likely Kepp's worst defensive position. He is fine and all at making the play hit right to him, but his range isn't the best.

I still think the best thing to do with Kepp when Gonzo gets back is to get him 1 start a week at SS, 1 start at 3B and all starts at 1st base against lefties. That should get him plenty of at bats.

Steve4192
04-08-2008, 05:29 AM
I still think the best thing to do with Kepp when Gonzo gets back is to get him 1 start a week at SS, 1 start at 3B and all starts at 1st base against lefties. That should get him plenty of at bats.

Meh.

Gonzo didn't show me anything last year that makes me believe he is anything more than a slight upgrade over Keppinger defensively, and given the massive disparity in their skills at the plate, he has no business starting over Keppinger.

If/when the Reds get a defensive wizard who can hold his own at the dish, I will be all for moving Keppinger to the bench or to a less demanding defensive position. Gonzalez might have been that guy five or six years ago, but his days as a plus defender are long gone.

cincrazy
04-08-2008, 08:20 AM
You do realize he's had a grand total of 20 at bats thus far?



As much as he fits the Cincinnati puppy love mold, Keppy isn't an everyday player.

The Reds best chances lie in EE. Stick him in the lineup and forget about him.

I agreed with your Keppinger statement about a year ago. But I refuse to believe this is just some prolonged fluke, some hot streak he's going through with the bat. He can flat out hit as soon as he gets out of bed in the morning. This team with its lefty loaded lineup can not afford to have Edwin hit .125 every April and May, walks or no walks. I would love to be patient with him, and I never stated that I'd personally bench EE as soon as Gonzo comes back. But I do think it's a very real possiblity, and Edwin will have nobody to blame but himself.

RedlegJake
04-08-2008, 09:24 AM
I just want EE to get hot and start smashing so he can be traded for a decent return.

Hear me out before screaming. The Reds need his RH bat this year. Looking ahead, though, there is Kepp, Rosales, and Frazier. A great year from EE helps the Reds this year and makes him a good trade chip just before he gets too expensive AND the Reds have a couple of good options for replacements in Kepp and Rosales, another close behind in Frazier, and 2 more a couple years down the road yet in Waring and Francisco.

Jpup
04-08-2008, 10:56 AM
So far Kepp has 26 ABs with 11 hits and 3 BBs, on base 14 times.

So far EE has had 20 ABs with 2 hits and 8 BBs, on base 10 times.

I think Marty and Jeff have plenty to do with what many of us think we see when we look up.

:)

I don't listen to Marty, I may hear his voice 5 times a year, at most. I base my opinions of my own observations. 14 out of 26 is pretty darn good. I don't know what Kepp has to do with Edwin anyway.

Ron Madden
04-08-2008, 04:14 PM
I'm not ragging on Kepp in any way. I like Kepp.

I'm just pointing out that EE is getting on base too.

;)

Kc61
04-08-2008, 05:04 PM
I'm not ragging on Kepp in any way. I like Kepp.

I'm just pointing out that EE is getting on base too.

;)


I'm sorry, but I can't buy into this.

If the Reds want a pure table setter, an OBP guy, Kepp is probably the most prolific on the team, with no exceptions. He showed it last year. He is showing it this year.

For EE to have value, he needs to hit. If his main objective is walks, then I'd rather have Kepp by a long shot. Kepp is a first class table setter, to me he has great value.

Let's continue to give EE an opportunity, he's still young. But what's his upside? Is this the next Scott Rolen? Is he a potential 30 homer a year guy at third base? A potential .300/20/90 hitter with a reasonable number of extra base hits? EE's lack of extra base hits last year was disturbing. He only got 42, many at the end of the season in games meaningless for the Reds.

Ok, he's done a good job with walks this year, but most Reds fans are looking for a lot more from Edwin.

Steve4192
04-08-2008, 06:01 PM
For EE to have value, he needs to hit.

Really?

I just figured he could get by on walks alone.

[/sarcasm]

EE has a career 795 OPS, which is above average for 3B. His minor league performance numbers and the fact that he is only 25 also indicate that we can expect that number to rise to some degree or another. I am not worried in the least about whether he will hit. He will eventually heat up and make us all forget about his April woes.

What I am worried about is that he has not shown any indication of conquering his throwing problems. He's a valuable bat as long as he can stay at 3B, but his value seriously drops off if the Reds eventually feel the need to move him off the hot corner.

Spring~Fields
04-08-2008, 06:50 PM
For EE to have value, he needs to hit. If his main objective is walks, then I'd rather have Kepp by a long shot. Kepp is a first class table setter, to me he has great value.

Let's continue to give EE an opportunity, he's still young. But what's his upside? Is this the next Scott Rolen? Is he a potential 30 homer a year guy at third base? A potential .300/20/90 hitter with a reasonable number of extra base hits? EE's lack of extra base hits last year was disturbing. He only got 42, many at the end of the season in games meaningless for the Reds.

Ok, he's done a good job with walks this year, but most Reds fans are looking for a lot more from Edwin.

I have to see Edwin in front of some protection in the lineup. I know they say that lineups don't matter, but some hit better with a Griffey and Kepp type behind them. I would like to see what Edwin could or could not do.

I think that he is going to get pushed out eventually under the current approach with him.

Spring~Fields
04-08-2008, 06:53 PM
What I am worried about is that he has not shown any indication of conquering his throwing problems. He's a valuable bat as long as he can stay at 3B, but his value seriously drops off if the Reds eventually feel the need to move him off the hot corner.

I don't see why he can't be the right handed bat at first base if the throwing is his only problem.

GAC
04-08-2008, 07:31 PM
I have to see Edwin in front of some protection in the lineup. I know they say that lineups don't matter, but some hit better with a Griffey and Kepp type behind them. I would like to see what Edwin could or could not do.

I think that he is going to get pushed out eventually under the current approach with him.

I'd take him at leadoff over Patterson. :p:

KronoRed
04-08-2008, 07:38 PM
Keppinger followed by EE would be a nice 1/2.

GAC
04-08-2008, 07:39 PM
Keppinger followed by EE would be a nice 1/2.

The way Kepp hits, I'd prefer EE at leadoff. He draws more walks, and I think he'd see better quality pitches.

RedsManRick
04-08-2008, 08:24 PM
Keppinger followed by EE would be a nice 1/2.

But if Keppinger gets on base and we need to bunt him over in the top of the first? I'm sorry, but you don't score runs by walking, you score them by making outs. EE just doesn't know how to play the game.

Spring~Fields
04-08-2008, 10:04 PM
The way Kepp hits, I'd prefer EE at leadoff. He draws more walks, and I think he'd see better quality pitches.

He just might, we will never know.
They won't make things more advantageous for him.

KGJ is an all time great hitter, he could bat fourth and do well, let some of the other guys get the benefit of hitting in front of him.

Virginia Beach Reds
04-08-2008, 10:21 PM
EE also lost at 3B. Come on dude.

Always Red
04-08-2008, 10:41 PM
The Creeper just said he was "kinda lost" at the plate.

Virginia Beach Reds
04-08-2008, 10:46 PM
My prediction is if he doesn't pull it together, he'll be taking a seat to Keppinger when Gonzo gets back. Might make us a better club, day-to-day.

Dunn and EE, can't figure either of them out at the plate.

Ron Madden
04-09-2008, 04:08 AM
For EE to have value, he needs to hit. Ok, he's done a good job with walks this year, but most Reds fans are looking for a lot more from Edwin.


The Reds have played a grand total of 8 games in 2008.

IMHO, the Reds made a mistake by being impatient with Edwin last year.

There is absolutely no reasson to repeat that mistake again this season.

Redhook
04-09-2008, 08:25 AM
The Reds have played a grand total of 8 games in 2008.

IMHO, the Reds made a mistake by being impatient with Edwin last year.

There is absolutely no reasson to repeat that mistake again this season.

I agree, but what is his deal? Why does it take him so long to get going? He looks as if he just came back from being on the 60-day DL with no warm-up in the minors. It's one thing to be in a slump, but it's another to look as if you haven't played the game in a long, long time.

Always Red
04-09-2008, 08:47 AM
I agree, but what is his deal? Why does it take him so long to get going? He looks as if he just came back from being on the 60-day DL with no warm-up in the minors. It's one thing to be in a slump, but it's another to look as if you haven't played the game in a long, long time.

For some reason, EE's head is not in the game right now. On the Harang sacrifice bunt the other day when EE was thrown out at 3rd (which was NOT a good bunt by Harang) EE was heading BACK to 2nd base when the ball hit the bat.

I agree with leaving EE at 3B, and letting him find his stride; I'm pretty sure he will. I'm just wondering what is up with him, and why it all (bat, glove, head) goes bad at once for Encarnacion?

bucksfan2
04-09-2008, 09:48 AM
I'm sorry, but I can't buy into this.

If the Reds want a pure table setter, an OBP guy, Kepp is probably the most prolific on the team, with no exceptions. He showed it last year. He is showing it this year.

For EE to have value, he needs to hit. If his main objective is walks, then I'd rather have Kepp by a long shot. Kepp is a first class table setter, to me he has great value.

Let's continue to give EE an opportunity, he's still young. But what's his upside? Is this the next Scott Rolen? Is he a potential 30 homer a year guy at third base? A potential .300/20/90 hitter with a reasonable number of extra base hits? EE's lack of extra base hits last year was disturbing. He only got 42, many at the end of the season in games meaningless for the Reds.

Ok, he's done a good job with walks this year, but most Reds fans are looking for a lot more from Edwin.

Agree 100% here. RMR may disagree with this notion but Edwins entire run production this year came from one swing of the bat. He has 9 walks, 0 of them led to runs scored. He has 1 run scored and 3 RBI which are a result of his walk off HR. Edwin needs to be a run producer this year. Walks are in very rare instances run producers. Edwin's inability to drive in runs has directly effected the kinds of pitches that Dunn has seen. So far this season pitchers are giving Dunn very little to hit because Edwin is not a threat to drive him in.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 12:28 AM
I was thinking...the Giants need a bat. The Reds could use another lefty. I wonder if the Giants would be interested in an Edwin Encarnacion-for-Jonathan Sanchez deal? Sanchez is a 25-year old lefty with good stuff. He throws a fastball in the low-90's with a plus changeup and inconsistent slider. He's got some control issues (53 walks) but he does have 103 career strikeouts in 96 major league innings. I'd hate to lose EdE but Sanchez would give the Reds a solid lefty to slide into the #5 spot in the rotation.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/jonathan-sanchez.shtml

SteelSD
04-10-2008, 12:47 AM
I was thinking...the Giants need a bat. The Reds could use another lefty. I wonder if the Giants would be interested in an Edwin Encarnacion-for-Jonathan Sanchez deal? Sanchez is a 25-year old lefty with good stuff. He throws a fastball in the low-90's with a plus changeup and inconsistent slider. He's got some control issues (53 walks) but he does have 103 career strikeouts in 96 major league innings. I'd hate to lose EdE but Sanchez would give the Reds a solid lefty to slide into the #5 spot in the rotation.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/jonathan-sanchez.shtml

Stop stealing trade ideas from my computer! Of course, those are actually stolen from Raisor's computer but I digress...

I'd try to pry away Sanchez for less, but he's a heck of a target.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 12:54 AM
Stop stealing trade ideas from my computer! Of course, those are actually stolen from Raisor's computer but I digress...

I'd try to pry away Sanchez for less, but he's a heck of a target.

Eh, picked a great target but picked an awful night to target him. Check out his line against the Padres: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10K.

After that outing it may take Bruce, Votto, and EdE to get him. ;)

WMR
04-10-2008, 12:59 AM
No more winter ball for EE. It seems to be sapping all his mojo.

SteelSD
04-10-2008, 01:07 AM
Eh, picked a great target but picked an awful night to target him. Check out his line against the Padres: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 10K.

After that outing it may take Bruce, Votto, and EdE to get him. ;)

ARGHHHHHHHHHH!

mth123
04-10-2008, 04:22 AM
I was thinking...the Giants need a bat. The Reds could use another lefty. I wonder if the Giants would be interested in an Edwin Encarnacion-for-Jonathan Sanchez deal? Sanchez is a 25-year old lefty with good stuff. He throws a fastball in the low-90's with a plus changeup and inconsistent slider. He's got some control issues (53 walks) but he does have 103 career strikeouts in 96 major league innings. I'd hate to lose EdE but Sanchez would give the Reds a solid lefty to slide into the #5 spot in the rotation.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/S/jonathan-sanchez.shtml

That's pretty funny. This morining I was thinking EdE, Ross and Maloney for Sanchez and Bengie Molina.

OnBaseMachine
04-14-2008, 06:16 PM
Baseball Prospectus had a little tidbit on guys who are off to slow starts and one of the guys they mentioned was Edwin Encarnacion. They mentioned his BABIP is only .160, which is way off his career rate of .307. They went on to mention his problem is he's not squaring the ball up enough (Only a liner rate of 7.4% compared to 18.7 last season and a groundball rate of 56% this season). BP says it's too early to panic about EE and they just think he's going through a rough stretch. I've been frustrated with him but I'd have to say that's a fair assessment. I say give him a couple more weeks, or at least until Gonzalez returns and see where he's at then.

Hollcat
04-15-2008, 03:27 AM
I didn't read through the entire thread so maybe someone else has mentioned it but what I see in Encarnacion is someone who will not attempt to go the opposite way. He constantly tries to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate which usually end up in grounders to short or pop-ups. The Reds coaching staff have got to get him to start taking those pitches the other way, otherwise thats all he will ever see and his only hits will be grounders that find a hole or when the pitcher makes a mistake and leaves one on the inner half of the plate.

Ron Madden
04-15-2008, 04:21 AM
I keep hearing and reading that Edwin had a good Second Half of the season last year, After being sent down. Wasn't he sent down and called back up well before the middle of the season?

The way I see it is Edwin had a pretty solid season in 2007, even with the slow start.

I could be wrong but I believe Edwin still has plenty of time to put up some solid numbers to make up for his slow start in 2008.

OldRightHander
04-15-2008, 06:45 AM
A lot of good hitters off to slow starts right now. I won't be worried unless he's still stinking it up in July.

redsmetz
04-15-2008, 09:32 AM
I keep hearing and reading that Edwin had a good Second Half of the season last year, After being sent down. Wasn't he sent down and called back up well before the middle of the season?

The way I see it is Edwin had a pretty solid season in 2007, even with the slow start.

I could be wrong but I believe Edwin still has plenty of time to put up some solid numbers to make up for his slow start in 2008.

You're right about the demotion timing - sent down 5/10, called back up 5/22. A June 1st story wrote:


Encarnacion has hit .333 (13-for-39) with two home runs and seven RBIs since his May 22 recall. During Thursday's 10-2 loss at Houston, the 24-year-old was a bright spot with a career-high four hits.

Spring~Fields
04-15-2008, 11:10 AM
Encarnacion has hit .333 (13-for-39) with two home runs and seven RBIs since his May 22 recall. During Thursday's 10-2 loss at Houston, the 24-year-old was a bright spot with a career-high four hits.

That's the man that we are looking for. I wonder what they said to him or told him to do that helped him last year besides going to AAA. Maybe the hitting instructor should work harder and smarter and break out his notes and some video.

mbgrayson
04-15-2008, 11:12 AM
I agree with those who say to be patient. Edwin has traditionally shown better numbers in the summer months than in the spring. I don't think he does well in the cold. Could be that as a latin player, he has more difficulty adjusting to playing baseball in cool northern climes.....he just didn't have to cope with this cool weather growing up.

Month by month EE 2005-07 splits: (BA OBP SLG OPS)
April .255 .343 .408 for an OPS of .751
May .260 .352 .429 for an OPS of .781
June .291 .368 .427 for an OPS of .795
July .281 .356 .418 for an OPS of .774
August .299 .344 .535 for an OPS of .879
Sept. .257 .344 .424 for an OPS of .768

These numbers are from ESPN Stats (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5904&type=batting3).

It is also interesting to me that everyone panics about EE, but Adam Dunn, whose numbers are just as bad, is getting a pass. Maybe it's the EE errors....
EE so far in 2008: .179 .347 .333 for an OPS of .680 with 2 HRs
AD so far in 2008: .167 .380 .250 for an OPS of .630 with 1 HR

Kc61
04-15-2008, 02:49 PM
I

It is also interesting to me that everyone panics about EE, but Adam Dunn, whose numbers are just as bad, is getting a pass. Maybe it's the EE errors....
EE so far in 2008: .179 .347 .333 for an OPS of .680 with 2 HRs
AD so far in 2008: .167 .380 .250 for an OPS of .630 with 1 HR

But Dunn has showed that he is capable of big time production. Dunn's upside justifies waiting out the occasional long slump.

EE has the long slumps (offensive and defensive) but the Reds have to decide if his upside justifies sticking through them. What's the payoff? His lifetime OPS is under .800.

WMR
04-15-2008, 02:51 PM
How old is EE?

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2008, 02:54 PM
How old is EE?

Turned 25 in January.

WMR
04-15-2008, 02:57 PM
I would call this a major make or break year for EE, but I think it would be an awful decision to do anything right now asides from continuing to show confidence in him and hope for the best.

Always Red
04-15-2008, 03:35 PM
I would call this a major make or break year for EE, but I think it would be an awful decision to do anything right now asides from continuing to show confidence in him and hope for the best.

Unless he continues to play as he has, and then it would be an awful decision to keep putting him out there. ;)

EE is a warm weather player. Once it heats up, he will, too. The cold seems to effect his hitting, his defense and his confidence. I think he just needs to continue to mature. My hunch is that he will be ok, but there's no reason he needs to start out this poorly every year.

OTOH, Barry Larkin (HoF'er in my book) was another notoriously slow starter. I don't recall his defense being affected by his slumping at the plate, though I might be wrong.

Kc61
04-15-2008, 03:35 PM
I would call this a major make or break year for EE, but I think it would be an awful decision to do anything right now asides from continuing to show confidence in him and hope for the best.


You may be right, but it depends on the Reds internal evaluation. If they continue to view him potentially as a high upside, above average third baseman, I would agree.

But if they feel his upside is average to below average, then I would wait until his inevitable hot streak and try to move him. Because the long slumps hurt the team and are only worth abiding if there's potential for him to be outstanding.

RedlegJake
04-15-2008, 03:40 PM
You may be right, but it depends on the Reds internal evaluation. If they continue to view him potentially as a high upside, above average third baseman, I would agree.

But if they feel his upside is average to below average, then I would wait until his inevitable hot streak and try to move him. Because the long slumps hurt the team and are only worth abiding if there's potential for him to be outstanding.

Exactly.

dfs
04-15-2008, 03:47 PM
I would call this a major make or break year for EE, but I think it would be an awful decision to do anything right now asides from continuing to show confidence in him and hope for the best.

Maybe for EE and his personal future this is a make or break year, but I think between Francisco, Waring and Frazier, unless he steps it up a couple of notchs, EE is already out of the organization's long term plans. It's simply a matter of what they get for him and how long the gap is to the next reds thirdbaseman.

WMR
04-15-2008, 03:49 PM
Unless he continues to play as he has, and then it would be an awful decision to keep putting him out there. ;)

EE is a warm weather player. Once it heats up, he will, too. The cold seems to effect his hitting, his defense and his confidence. I think he just needs to continue to mature. My hunch is that he will be ok, but there's no reason he needs to start out this poorly every year.

OTOH, Barry Larkin (HoF'er in my book) was another notoriously slow starter. I don't recall his defense being affected by his slumping at the plate, though I might be wrong.

I honestly believe the Reds should put the kibosh on EE's winter ball activities. Could becoming well-adjusted to the warm climes of the DR and then coming up to chilly Cincinnati lengthen the time he needs to get "dialed in?"

WMR
04-15-2008, 03:50 PM
Maybe for EE and his personal future this is a make or break year, but I think between Francisco, Waring and Frazier, unless he steps it up a couple of notchs, EE is already out of the organization's long term plans. It's simply a matter of what they get for him and how long the gap is to the next reds thirdbaseman.

I disagree.

Cyclone792
04-15-2008, 04:02 PM
OTOH, Barry Larkin (HoF'er in my book) was another notoriously slow starter. I don't recall his defense being affected by his slumping at the plate, though I might be wrong.

You're definitely correct there; Larkin's worst month in his career was by far April. In some seasons he wouldn't start hitting until the first or second week of May.

In general, people tend to unnecessarily freak out due to slow starts. It's wired in everybody's mind that certain players should produce at certain levels, and if they're below that level even a dozen games into the season then it's time to freak out.

In reality though, almost all players work their way through a season and a career in peaks and valleys. Sometimes those peaks are in early April when we see guys OPS'ing 1.000 two weeks in, and sometimes those valleys are in early April when we see guys OPS'ing .600 two weeks in. When peaks and valleys happen in the middle of summer, they're oftentimes noticed in a more subtle way and people freak out about them less often. Instead of an OPS sitting at .600, it just may drop 30 points over a two week span and the final number won't look too different than the expected level, hence less freaking out.

As far as Encarnacion (and Dunn), big deal right now. It's two weeks of baseball; players, all players, struggle over two week periods occasionally. If one or both of them are still consistently stinking up the place by Memorial Day, then there is likely something a bit more than minor going on. But for now, keep plugging them in the lineup, allow them some time to make their adjustments, and people should remember to stay off their back.