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UPRedsFan
04-08-2008, 04:31 PM
Figured we should start a thread on his progress:

So far he has:

7 IP

5 hits

1 BB

2 K's

(By the way I also noticed Thompson has 6 IP, 3 hits, 0 BB's and 5 K's in Chattanooga)

AmarilloRed
04-08-2008, 04:40 PM
Shouldn't this thread be placed in the Minor League Forum? A good idea to keep track of his progress, however.

texasdave
04-08-2008, 04:42 PM
Incidentally, Homer goes tonight. He faces Kei Igawa who pitched 6 perfect innings in his first start this season.

Degenerate39
04-09-2008, 12:27 AM
5.2ip, 4 hits, 7 strikeouts, 1 walk and no runs.

Degenerate39
04-09-2008, 10:16 AM
In Homer's two starts hes done this:


13.2 Innings pitched, 9 hits, 9 k's, 2 walks.
Not bad.

Now here's Cueto's MLB stats:


13.1 Innings pitched, 6 hits, 18 K's, 0 walks.

JaxRed
04-09-2008, 10:18 AM
In Homer's two starts hes done this:


Not bad.

Now here's Cueto's MLB stats:


Runs allowed not part of the comparison?

Degenerate39
04-09-2008, 10:22 AM
Runs allowed not part of the comparison?

I just got those Homer stats from the Minor League Game thread and there weren't any runs allowed in those stats so I just compared what stats I had on Homer to Cueto's. I just didn't feel like looking for Homer's stats.

bucksfan2
04-09-2008, 11:40 AM
If Homer keeps his pitching under control we may be looking for a spot to put him in on the reds instead of Belisle.

lollipopcurve
04-09-2008, 12:58 PM
Great to see Homer executing well in AAA. Looking forward to hearing about how he's mixing his pitches, etc.

Oxilon
04-09-2008, 01:01 PM
If Homer keeps his pitching under control we may be looking for a spot to put him in on the reds instead of Belisle.

I wouldn't even go that far. With how well Cueto and Volquez have looked in spring training and now the beginning of the season, rushing Bailey is the last thing we should do. The very earliest I'd bring him up would be the end of May, and even than I'd be extremely hesitant.

The Reds #5 starter right now is Fogg or Belisle when he gets back. I know they're not as sexy as Bailey, but for a #5 starter, what do you expect?

fearofpopvol1
04-09-2008, 01:13 PM
that's encouraging for Bailey. the very soonest i would bring bailey up would be after the ASB and even then, he'd have to be pitching similarly to the way he is now. september might make sense too.

LincolnparkRed
04-09-2008, 01:24 PM
I just wish he could consistently get to 6 innings. Every time he goes 5+ strains the bullpen a little more and we don't seem to have a lot of room for error.

OnBaseMachine
04-09-2008, 01:48 PM
I'm impressed with Homer's early progress so far. He's throwing strikes, he was very efficient in his first start (82 pitches in 7 innings IIRC) and seems to be mixing his pitches well. I'd like to see him dominate in about 12-15 starts before I'd consider calling him up but he's on the right track right now. Keep it up Homer, I'm rooting for ya.

New Fever
04-09-2008, 02:02 PM
I just read an article on Projectprospect.com that says Johnny Cueto is the sixth youngest player in the majors. Jay Bruce is the youngest player in AAA and Homer Bailey is tied for the seventh youngest player in AAA. If Homer was in the bigs he would be the third youngest player in the majors.

M2
04-09-2008, 02:54 PM
Homer's showing what happens when you put a kid where he belongs. It's nice to see him thrive and I hope the Reds resist the urge to advance him too quickly. Let him kick some tail down in AAA for most of the season.

redsmetz
04-09-2008, 03:19 PM
I just read an article on Projectprospect.com that says Johnny Cueto is the sixth youngest player in the majors. Jay Bruce is the youngest player in AAA and Homer Bailey is tied for the seventh youngest player in AAA. If Homer was in the bigs he would be the third youngest player in the majors.

What a telling stat - Home is still the 3rd youngest player in AAA - I hope the club gives him the time he needs to develop completely.

paulrichjr
04-10-2008, 04:41 PM
I think I see a potential trade chip in June.... And I am not happy about it.

(Happy that he is doing well... Not happy that I will bet that he will be considered in a trade for that one player we need to get over the top)

Aronchis
04-10-2008, 04:48 PM
I think I see a potential trade chip in June.... And I am not happy about it.

(Happy that he is doing well... Not happy that I will bet that he will be considered in a trade for that one player we need to get over the top)

Not gonna happen unless the Reds get a big return(aka a established ace). They have everything set up for him with Fogg and if he is humming in June, he gets that spot.

Plus, the Reds needs somebody to replace Harang and Volquez(I commented on this reason why in "pitching counts in the other forum) down the road as the Reds inning eating number 1.

More likely Thompson and Wood if they keep it up like I expect.

Benihana
04-10-2008, 05:19 PM
Not gonna happen unless the Reds get a big return(aka a established ace). They have everything set up for him with Fogg and if he is humming in June, he gets that spot.

Plus, the Reds needs somebody to replace Harang and Volquez(I commented on this reason why in "pitching counts in the other forum) down the road as the Reds inning eating number 1.

More likely Thompson and Wood if they keep it up like I expect.

Aaron Harang is signed through 2011. I seriously doubt the Reds are considering a replacement for him at this point. Not saying that Bailey should be traded (unless the return is huge,) but I just don't think replacing Harang three years from now is a consideration when contemplating personnel moves.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 05:25 PM
Aaron Harang is signed through 2011. I seriously doubt the Reds are considering a replacement for him at this point. Not saying that Bailey should be traded (unless the return is huge,) but I just don't think replacing Harang three years from now is a consideration when contemplating personnel moves.

Yeah and I doubt the Reds are already looking for Edinson Volquez's replacement considering he is only 24 years old. What a weird, weird comment that was.

Aronchis
04-10-2008, 06:36 PM
Yeah and I doubt the Reds are already looking for Edinson Volquez's replacement considering he is only 24 years old. What a weird, weird comment that was.

You mean 25(closing in). Volquez's mechanics aren't the best and will take a toll quicker than others. Harang will be aging by 2011 as well.

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 07:01 PM
You mean 25(closing in).

Did you really just make this differentiation?

M2
04-10-2008, 07:03 PM
Harang will be aging by 2011 as well.

Is there any living human who won't be aging in 2011?

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 07:05 PM
You mean 25(closing in). Volquez's mechanics aren't the best and will take a toll quicker than others. Harang will be aging by 2011 as well.

No, I meant 24. He's 24 years old. He doesn't turn 25 until July 3rd. I meant what I said. Oh, and please quiet acting like you are some kind of pitching expert and can predict everything. You have no clue what Volquez's future holds. I

Matt700wlw
04-10-2008, 07:07 PM
You mean 25(closing in).

What an old fart.

Aronchis
04-10-2008, 07:09 PM
What an old fart.

Rijo was done by the time he was 29 years old. Pitchers have their run than it is over. A good 3-5 year run for Volquez would be a success. Better than most probably thought 6 years ago(or even two!!!).

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 07:22 PM
Aronchis has recently claimed:
Bailey's prime will come when he's 31 years old.
Aaron Harang will be aging within three years.
The less-than-three year difference between Volquez and Cueto is why Volquez will be able to handle Dusty Baker's use of pitchers and Cueto won't.
Homer Bailey's command issues are because he needs more strength in his legs.

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 07:26 PM
Rijo was done by the time he was 29 years old. Pitchers have their run than it is over. A good 3-5 year run for Volquez would be a success. Better than most probably thought 6 years ago(or even two!!!).

If you're going to be nitpicky about the difference between 24-plus years old and 25 years old, I'll go ahead and point out that Jose Rijo's only All-Star game was as a 29-year-old.

Aronchis
04-10-2008, 07:29 PM
Bailey's prime will come when he's 31 years old.
>>>>>>>>>Which is probably will be
Aaron Harang will be aging within three years.
>>>>>>>>>Which he will be 33 and several 200+I's take a toll
The less-than-three year difference between Volquez and Cueto is why Volquez will be able to handle Dusty Baker's use of pitchers and Cueto won't.
>>>>>>>>>Yep, he is older and safer from overuse. Volquez's mechanical problems will come come back to bite like Rijo, but nobody said much in 1992
Homer Bailey's command issues are because he needs more strength in his legs.[/QUOTE]

Bailey's prime will come when he's 31 years old.
>>>>>>>>>Which probably will be
Aaron Harang will be aging within three years.
>>>>>>>>>Which he will be 33 and several 200+I's take a toll
The less-than-three year difference between Volquez and Cueto is why Volquez will be able to handle Dusty Baker's use of pitchers and Cueto won't.
>>>>>>>>>Yep, he is older and safer from overuse causing quick damage. Volquez's mechanical problems will come come back to bite like Rijo, but nobody said much in 1992 on Jose.
Homer Bailey's command issues are because he needs more strength in his legs
>>>>>>>>>He sure did. Notice his velocity ticked up his last start. Feeling stronger in his legs is helping. We saw some modest improvement in late spring training(even his last start, his command started out well). I warn, Homer may have some downs before he can get on a consistant roll later on.

Aronchis
04-10-2008, 07:31 PM
If you're going to be nitpicky about the difference between 24-plus years old and 25 years old, I'll go ahead and point out that Jose Rijo's only All-Star game was as a 29-year-old.

and then he was done!!!! Shows you how much ASG means eh? Fact is, if Volquez 2008-12 is as good as Rijo's 1990-94, we all will be happy.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 07:44 PM
I fail to see where Volquez has a violent mechanics as you are making it out to be. His delivery is clean and repeatable from what I've seen. Chris Welsh or Brantley, can't remember which one, even made the same comment that his delivery was clean and repeatable.

Screwball
04-10-2008, 08:17 PM
Chris Welsh or Brantley, can't remember which one, even made the same comment that his delivery was clean and repeatable.

Pffft, you act as if they would know more about pitching mechanics than Aronchis.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 08:22 PM
Pffft, you act as if they would know more about pitching mechanics than Aronchis.

Hard to believe, I know. :)

SarasotaFan
04-10-2008, 10:22 PM
people's bodies differ...

as far as leg strength in a pitcher is concerned - it's huge. look at the fireballers who have had lengthy careers - most have strong legs (wagner, ryan, clemens on the sauce, et al.) for a nice drive to the plate which makes it easier on the arm.

OnBaseMachine
04-11-2008, 10:49 AM
Homer Bailey was everyone's favorite pitching prospect going into last season, but injuries and some poor performances in the majors got some people down on the right-hander. Bailey seemed poised to redeem himself and win a spot in the Reds' rotation this spring, but instead he posted a 5.21 ERA and walked more batters (16) than he struck out (11) in 19 innings of work. Now back at Triple-A Louisville, Bailey may be turning things around. The right-hander gave up one run while walking one and striking out two in his first outing of the season, then hurled 5 2/3 innings of shutout ball to go with seven strikeouts and one walk last night. Bailey still posses the same ace upside he had last year, and if he can string together a few more good starts he'll be worth stashing away even in one-year leagues.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&line=233782&columnid=3&article=30156

Degenerate39
04-14-2008, 07:44 PM
6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K 81 pitches.

Not a bad outing by Homer

Aronchis
04-14-2008, 07:46 PM
6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 4 K 81 pitches.

Not a bad outing by Homer

Yeah, but 4 k's won't cut it. I would require he have a 9 k/9 through 75 innings to get the callup. Though, everything else is looking up including hitting 97mph for the first time this year!!

dougdirt
04-14-2008, 07:47 PM
Can't strike them all out every game. Even guys like Harang have 6 and 7 inning starts with 2 and 3 strikeouts.

Aronchis
04-14-2008, 07:51 PM
Can't strike them all out every game. Even guys like Harang have 6 and 7 inning starts with 2 and 3 strikeouts.

Yeah, but 2/3 games isn't that good. Homer has had them 0-2 alot and just isn't getting his breaking over good enough to whiff them. If he could, I suspect Krivsky would call him up pronto.

SarasotaFan
04-14-2008, 10:04 PM
Yeah, but 2/3 games isn't that good. Homer has had them 0-2 alot and just isn't getting his breaking over good enough to whiff them. If he could, I suspect Krivsky would call him up pronto.
Doubt he's gonna just lay his breaking ball in there 0-2. Most likely he'll try to bury it in the dirt or throw a fastball by them - I saw him try to throw too many fastball's by people 0-2 on the outside corner last year, that didn't work too well in Cincinnati. Hopefully Ted Powers and Rick Sweet (being a former catcher) are helping him with his game calling. As for his off-speed - he lacks an off-speed pitch that he can throw for a strike when needed. I think this is what's going to hurt him in the long run.

AmarilloRed
04-14-2008, 11:30 PM
I would like to see Bailey go deeper in games and be more efficient with his pitches. 5 or 6 innings is good for a #4/5, but not for someone projected to be a top of the rotation starter

Kc61
04-14-2008, 11:37 PM
I would like to see Bailey go deeper in games and be more efficient with his pitches. 5 or 6 innings is good for a #4/5, but not for someone projected to be a top of the rotation starter

The guy is 21 years old and has progressed so that, unlike last year, he is pitching very effectively at the AAA level. This is meaningful improvement. And his age 21-22 season has just started.

I am very encouraged by Bailey's start to the season. He's doing just fine.

dougdirt
04-14-2008, 11:42 PM
I would like to see Bailey go deeper in games and be more efficient with his pitches. 5 or 6 innings is good for a #4/5, but not for someone projected to be a top of the rotation starter

Maybe you should look at his pitch counts then.

Homer has thrown 81 pitches in a 6.1 inning start, 82 pitches in a 7 inning start and 90 pitches in 5.2 innings. Thats 253 pitches in 19 innings pitched, or 13.31 pitches per inning. That is EXTREMELY pitch efficient. In fact, if he were doing that for the Reds, he would lead the team. The previous three years Aaron Harang, our horse, has averaged 16.12, 15.96 and 15.50 pitches per inning. Bailey isn't 'going deep' because he is being removed with low pitch counts.

Screwball
04-15-2008, 12:21 AM
Found a pretty good article put up a couple weeks ago about Homer entitled Homer Bailey: Ace or Talented Underachiever? (Homer Bailey: Ace or Talented Underachiever). There's some video clips so it's best to go to the link, but here's a little teaser:



Homer Bailey - Ace or Talented Underachiever?
By Alex Eisenberg
April 2, 2008


As sort of a preview to the upcoming articles about the most overrated prospects in baseball, I wanted to look at a pitcher that I tend to think talent evaluators overrate: Homer Bailey. The questions I have about Bailey are more in relation to his overall numbers and his mental make-up than about the quality of his stuff.

When he's at his best, Bailey's fastball can be electric. He can consistently pump 95, 96, and 97 mph fastballs by hitters and the pitch can have a sneaky quality to it as it explodes out of Bailey's hand.


He also links to dougdirt's blog in the next paragraph. Pretty cool stuff.

Superdude
04-15-2008, 12:30 AM
Yeah, but 2/3 games isn't that good. Homer has had them 0-2 alot and just isn't getting his breaking over good enough to whiff them. If he could, I suspect Krivsky would call him up pronto.

Agreed. That seems to be the next step for him in my opinion. When Bailey's on his game, he can get 0-2 with the fastball, and even showed a decent knack for dropping a curveball into the strike zone early in the count during his spring training starts, but after that, it's like he adopts a pitch to contact philosophy and just hopes things work out. I think he'll finally take off like we expect him to when he learns to bury that curveball consistently as an out-pitch.

dougdirt
04-15-2008, 02:22 AM
Found a pretty good article put up a couple weeks ago about Homer entitled Homer Bailey: Ace or Talented Underachiever? (Homer Bailey: Ace or Talented Underachiever). There's some video clips so it's best to go to the link, but here's a little teaser:



He also links to dougdirt's blog in the next paragraph. Pretty cool stuff.

I saw that article.... Its pretty much a breakdown of his mechanics though, and its making everything said in the article based off of Homer Bailey and his mechanics from 2006 and 2007, which he doesn't use anymore.

Aronchis
04-15-2008, 02:33 AM
I saw that article.... Its pretty much a breakdown of his mechanics though, and its making everything said in the article based off of Homer Bailey and his mechanics from 2006 and 2007, which he doesn't use anymore.

They are the same mechanics basically except they are shortened up.

dougdirt
04-15-2008, 02:47 AM
They are the same mechanics basically except they are shortened up.

Which makes them entirely different. His stride is different. That changes his tempo toward the plate as well.

GoReds
04-15-2008, 09:17 AM
Does Homer really have an out pitch? He has a nice curve, when he can locate it, but the big advantage that Cueto and Volquez have over Bailey is the devestating changeup.

Should Bailey spend his time in AAA working on a Soto change or a sinker?

RedsManRick
04-15-2008, 10:52 AM
I can't help but see Homer Bailey and think Kyle Lohse... Electric stuff. Dominant when he attacks hitters and stays in the zone. Disastrous when he doesn't.

mbgrayson
04-15-2008, 11:25 AM
I am encouraged by Bailey so far this spring. Several people have been quoted as saying he looks better than they have ever seen him, including catchers Chad Moeller and David Ross.

"I caught him some last year and that’s the best I’ve seen him,” Moeller said. “Command, velocity, his fastball was kind of cutting across the strike zone. That was a different pitcher than I saw last year.” Link from HERE (http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19466252&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=418202&rfi=6).

From today's Louisville paper (http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080415/SPORTS/804150451/1002):

""He's really turned the corner as far as learning how to pitch and throwing pitches with conviction," Ross said. "He's not just a one-pitch pitcher."

"Added Bats manager Rick Sweet: "His ball is coming out of his hand so much better than what I saw last year."

His numbers through his first 3 Bats starts:
2 wins 1loss, ERA of 1.42, 19.0 innings pitched, 14 hits, 3 runs (all earned), 1 HR allowed, 3 BBs, 13 Ks, BA against of .209, and a .842 WHIP.

Aronchis
04-15-2008, 02:58 PM
I can't help but see Homer Bailey and think Kyle Lohse... Electric stuff. Dominant when he attacks hitters and stays in the zone. Disastrous when he doesn't.

Not even close. Lohse doesn't have Bailey's arm by a long shot.

Matt700wlw
04-15-2008, 03:40 PM
Keep it going, Homer!

Looking good so far!

SarasotaFan
04-15-2008, 03:55 PM
Does Homer really have an out pitch? He has a nice curve, when he can locate it, but the big advantage that Cueto and Volquez have over Bailey is the devestating changeup.

Should Bailey spend his time in AAA working on a Soto change or a sinker?

No he doesn't. Not in my opinion of watching him both last year in Cincy (on TV) and a few spring training games this year. I believe he's working on a "cut" fastball. His curve he can't always locate for a strike - that's the one thing that bothers me about him.

Aronchis
04-15-2008, 05:12 PM
No he doesn't. Not in my opinion of watching him both last year in Cincy (on TV) and a few spring training games this year. I believe he's working on a "cut" fastball. His curve he can't always locate for a strike - that's the one thing that bothers me about him.

Neither did Verlander to last year.

Screwball
04-15-2008, 06:10 PM
No he doesn't.

Homer Bailey has a career minor league H/9 of 6.82. Even in his rough stint in the majors last year it was under 9, at ~8.6. I'd say the problem is, and has always been, his penchant for far too many walks due to control problems, and not that he doesn't have an out pitch.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say he has two out pitches - his FB and his curve. He just needs to put them in the strike zone with more regularity, which he's doing this season. Hence, a WHIP of 0.87.

SarasotaFan
04-15-2008, 06:21 PM
Homer Bailey has a career minor league H/9 of 6.82. Even in his rough stint in the majors last year it was under 9, at ~8.6. I'd say the problem is, and has always been, his penchant for far too many walks due to control problems, and not that he doesn't have an out pitch.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say he has two out pitches - his FB and his curve. He just needs to put them in the strike zone with more regularity, which he's doing this season. Hence, a WHIP of 0.87.
well yeah his FB is an out pitch and his curve can be an out pitch (when they swing at it out of the zone). i guess i'd like to see more consistency of his curve for a strike when needed. that way hitters aren't just sitting on a fastball and laying off everything else. IMO, that was one thing he lacked last year during his stint in Cincy.

MikeS21
04-15-2008, 08:10 PM
dougdirt will tell you I have been one of Homer's harshest critics over the last couple of years.

And I have to say that Bailey has done well this year so far.

Sure, I'd love to see those K/9 numbers go back up, but a quality start is more important than leading the league in K's. Homer has given three quality starts. It certainly has to be helping his confidence - as well as the confidence of those in the organization who have lobbied on Homer's behalf.

Show me this kind of consistency over 8-10 more starts and I would consider him ready for another shot in Cincy.

cincyinco
04-16-2008, 01:30 AM
Qaulity starts are stepping stones to being consisent and potentially dominating.

Harang is a good example of this. Not the most dominant by any stretch of the imagination, but consistency has led him to be a #1 on our staff. He typically gets the job done.

Keep it up Homer.

Degenerate39
04-18-2008, 06:09 PM
Also from Krivsky:

On Homer Bailey: "He looked good. Ross caught him in fact. I talked to David the next day. He said Homer has made tremendous improvement. He's locating his pitches better. He's doing well."

Matt700wlw
04-18-2008, 06:17 PM
Rick Sweet, the Louisville manager, with Doc last night said Homer Bailey looks better now than he's ever seen him.

SarasotaFan
04-18-2008, 06:20 PM
Rick Sweet, the Louisville manager, with Doc last night said Homer Bailey looks better now than he's ever seen him.
He's not going to say he looked like poop...

Matt700wlw
04-18-2008, 10:18 PM
He's not going to say he looked like poop...

Well, no...but if he looked like he still was struggling with his command and velocity, I would think he'd say it.

GoReds33
04-18-2008, 10:27 PM
I hope to see Bailey up here, but if he's not 100% ready, don't push it. I don't want to see him sent back down again. I know he's going to pitch better knowing that Cueto, and Volquez are in the rotation too. He knows now that he has a spot to earn.

Degenerate39
04-19-2008, 10:14 AM
I hope to see Bailey up here, but if he's not 100% ready, don't push it. I don't want to see him sent back down again. I know he's going to pitch better knowing that Cueto, and Volquez are in the rotation too. He knows now that he has a spot to earn.

I could see Bailey making two more good starts before getting called up with the Reds. I think a rotation of Harang, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey would be awesome in the future.

dougdirt
04-19-2008, 10:27 AM
Homer looks good and has made some real progress, but if he spent another 4-8 starts in AAA it certainly wouldn't hurt him. Belisle is pitching fine and I think we are going to see him in Cincinnati for a while before Bailey comes back up.

RedlegJake
04-19-2008, 10:52 AM
Homer looks good and has made some real progress, but if he spent another 4-8 starts in AAA it certainly wouldn't hurt him. Belisle is pitching fine and I think we are going to see him in Cincinnati for a while before Bailey comes back up.

I really agree with this and hope it's the way the Reds handle Bailey. Ideally, I'd like to see him up before season's end to make maybe a half dozen starts in prep for next season. Let him continue to rack up good outings in AAA for awhile.

Grande Donkey
04-19-2008, 11:09 AM
I know it sounds silly but I don't want to see Bailey stay in AAA for a long time this year. If he stays in AAA for 3+ more months he may realize that he can get AAA hitters out based on stuff alone and he may develop some more bad habits leading to bad control. I'd like to see 4-5 more good starts with good control then I'd call him up.

crazyredfan40
04-19-2008, 11:15 AM
I know it sounds silly but I don't want to see Bailey stay in AAA for a long time this year. If he stays in AAA for 3+ more months he may realize that he can get AAA hitters out based on stuff alone and he may develop some more bad habits leading to bad control. I'd like to see 4-5 more good starts with good control then I'd call him up.

This is an interesting way to think about it, but I think that may be the way of thinking if he had not had any experience up here, but he has been up in the majors and also in spring training, and knows what it takes up here, and you would think that is what he would continue to work on...

I am with Doug give him 6-8 more starts, if he continues to control his pitches, stays ahead in counts, and ups his k numbers a little bit then call him up...

UC_Ken
04-19-2008, 11:24 AM
Bailey needs to continue to throw strikes. His stuff is good enough to get out major league hitters if he throws strikes. It's an absolute blessing that we don't have to rush him up with the success of Volquez and Cueto. If we can win some games and get in contention it gives you the option to make a trade with a vetran pitcher (Arroyo or Belisle) to bring in a defensive CF with leadoff skills.

SMcGavin
04-19-2008, 01:27 PM
Homer looks good and has made some real progress, but if he spent another 4-8 starts in AAA it certainly wouldn't hurt him. Belisle is pitching fine and I think we are going to see him in Cincinnati for a while before Bailey comes back up.

Agreed. Remember last year when everyone was calling for Homer to come up and be the savior? The emergence of Cueto and addition of Volquez were the best things that could have happened to him. Now he can spend as long as is necessary in AAA, and the Reds can wait to bring him up until he really is ready. Based on the results so far this year he is well on his way.

reds44
04-19-2008, 01:33 PM
Neither did Verlander to last year.
Verlander threw 99 though.

Degenerate39
04-19-2008, 04:22 PM
When's Homers next start?

SarasotaFan
04-19-2008, 04:25 PM
When's Homers next start?tonight..

Degenerate39
04-19-2008, 04:27 PM
tonight..

Seems like he always starts on the same days as Cueto.

SarasotaFan
04-19-2008, 04:31 PM
Seems like he always starts on the same days as Cueto.

just the way it's happened as of lately cause the rainout last sunday pushed his rotation schedule back a day....

Caveat Emperor
04-19-2008, 06:07 PM
Homer looks good and has made some real progress, but if he spent another 4-8 starts in AAA it certainly wouldn't hurt him. Belisle is pitching fine and I think we are going to see him in Cincinnati for a while before Bailey comes back up.

Agreed completely.

Bailey's poor performance (for whatever reason -- injury or otherwise) in the bigs last year prevents him from being given the benefit of the doubt. He needs to show that what he's doing this year in AAA isn't an aberration but, rather, the new norm.

July is the earliest that I want to see Homer Bailey in a Reds uni, and that's only if he remains pitch-efficient and keeps his walk rate under control.

Besides, the LAST thing the Reds need is another young pitcher that can't locate the plate, given Volquez's inability to make it to the 6th.

Degenerate39
04-19-2008, 09:05 PM
Bailey: 7IP, 5H, 3K, 0BB, 0R. 92 pitches, 60 strikes.

Good start

cincyinco
04-19-2008, 09:24 PM
I know some are going to be concerned about the lack of K's..

but given that Bailey is apparentely working on some new mechanics, and his control - I dont mind it..

yet..

I believe he's trying to command the zone better, trying to be more pitch efficient. All while working to shorten his stride, simplify his mechanics.

Reds fans need to be patient and not proclaim he's a bust due to his K rate. I think that will be the last thing to come. Once he gets the new mechanics and short stride down, the finishing touches should see his K rate rise again.

If it does, we got a helluva pitcher on our hands.

But that may not even come this year. Homer is still only 21. It may be another 3 years(see Volquez, Edinson..) before he ties all aspects of his game together and becomes the complete package.

In any case, I like that Bailey is accomplishing the goals he set out to accomplish at AAA. Improve his command. Improve his pitch efficiency. Throw strikes. Seems he's doing all those things. Some nights better than others, but its steady progress IMO.

fearofpopvol1
04-21-2008, 01:08 AM
I'm not at all concerned about the lack of Ks thus far. I'm far more concerned with walks/control/pitch efficiency. It seems (though still early) he is turning a corner in that department. I think the Ks will come later. He's just gotta continue to trust his stuff and perfect that offspeed stuff. I don't really want to see him any earlier than July either. It'll be real interesting to see what happens though if he continues to pitch the way he has. It'll make it real tough on the Reds, but that's a good problem to have.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 11:24 AM
Krivsky on Homer:

The 'B' boys

The natural roster move is to replace Weathers with Matt Belisle, tonight's starting pitcher against the Dodgers.

General Manager Wayne Krivsky hinted there could be others and that doesn't even include catcher David Ross, who must come off rehab Tuesday.

Krivsky talked glowingly Sunday about pitchers Homer Bailey and Bill Bray. Bailey pitched 71/3 scoreless innings Saturday for Class AAA Louisville and is 3-1 with a 1.03 earned-run average. In six appearances (six innings), Bray has a 0.00 ERA and has given up two hits while striking out 11 and walking three.

"We're activating Belisle and whether there is something else, well, we'll see," Krivsky said. "Bailey pitched a good game, his pitch count was down and it has been that way since his first start."

When it was mentioned that Bailey has allowed three runs over 261/3 innings with four walks and 16 strikeouts, Krivsky smiled and said, "That's pretty good."

Of Bray, Krivsky said: "I saw him twice, and he really has the sharpness and crispness on his slider. Velocity was average to above and he was impressive."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/04/20/ddn042108spredsnotesweb.html

Benihana
04-21-2008, 11:37 AM
Why Bill Bray isn't with the big league team at this point is beyond me.

RedsManRick
04-21-2008, 11:47 AM
Why Bill Bray isn't with the big league team at this point is beyond me.

Kent Merker, Mike Lincoln, and Josh Fogg. Neither of the first two was really expected to make the club and both have earned their respective spots. Fogg has been exactly who we thought he'd be, but we needed somebody to eat the innings.

The club needs to fish or cut bait with Coffey and is giving him the chance to write his ticket out of town. Affeldt, given his salary, isn't going anywhere regardless of how he throws, but has been solid so far.

To me, the interesting question is whether Bailey gets brought up to the pen or whether he pushes Belilse out of the rotation. OF course, with injuries and/or poor performances, these sorts of things tend to sort themselves out.

GoReds
04-21-2008, 12:09 PM
Bailey in the pen is an interesting thought. With Volquez and Cueto averaging 5-6 innings per start, would you put Homer on a set schedule in which he picks up some, if not all, of the remaining innings on the days that Cueto and Volquez start?

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 12:30 PM
Bailey in the pen is an interesting thought. With Volquez and Cueto averaging 5-6 innings per start, would you put Homer on a set schedule in which he picks up some, if not all, of the remaining innings on the days that Cueto and Volquez start?

I wouldn't. Homer needs to start all year in order to build up his arm strength to handle a starting pitchers workload. The most innings Homer has ever thrown in a season is 138.2 innings, and that was in 2006. I think he needs to make 12-15 starts in Louisville and then should be re-evaluated after that. If he's still commanding his pitches well and looks ready to pitch in the majors again, then call him up at that time and slot him into the Reds rotation and move Belisle into the bullpen.

knucklecup
04-22-2008, 09:54 AM
I'm an Indiana University student and a diehard Boston Red Sox fan who has been following the Reds for the last two years, mainly because its the closest Major League park.

A contributor on SoSH and many other places, I simply want to know when Homer Bailey is next scheduled to pitch.

I've been to Indians games before and the 'ole counting back five days thing works at about a 50% rate. Does anybody know for certain what night he'll be throwing in Indy this week? Shouldn't be Wednesday, could be Thursday, could be Friday... really a toss up.

Thanks in advance!

flyersbaseball
04-22-2008, 10:18 AM
I would say Thursday

knucklecup
04-22-2008, 10:28 AM
Hey, I'll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher's ass by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather to take his word for it?

Nah, I'm just playing... I just was hoping for something more concrete.

Thanks though!

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2008, 10:45 AM
I'm 50.02% sure he is pitching Friday.

knucklecup
04-22-2008, 10:53 AM
I'm 50.02% sure he is pitching Friday.

That .02% of confidence makes me feel cozy inside. Thanks.

;)

klw
04-22-2008, 10:55 AM
Hey, I'll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher's ass by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather to take his word for it?
!

This sounds like a Chris Farley quote.

maniem
04-22-2008, 12:41 PM
The Indy Star is reporting he'll be starting Friday night. I plan on going, anyone else from the Indy area going? This will be a good opportunity to see him pitch up close.

fearofpopvol1
04-23-2008, 02:25 AM
That sucks if it is Friday. I think I can only do the Thursday game. Anyone know who is scheduled to pitch on Thursday?

SarasotaFan
04-23-2008, 03:38 PM
That sucks if it is Friday. I think I can only do the Thursday game. Anyone know who is scheduled to pitch on Thursday?

lehr most likely...

SMcGavin
04-23-2008, 04:36 PM
The Indy Star is reporting he'll be starting Friday night. I plan on going, anyone else from the Indy area going? This will be a good opportunity to see him pitch up close.

If he's pitching Friday I will be there.

Blitz Dorsey
04-24-2008, 01:22 AM
The fact that Homer Bailey is pitching so well in AAA almost makes it tolerable that Bronson Arroyo suddenly absolutely sucks.

Our long-term top four of Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Bailey is still looking very good.

AmarilloRed
04-24-2008, 01:25 AM
I will be one of the first to say it: the fact that he is pitching so well makes him Jocketty trade bait. I don't want him traded; I just fear Jocketty will use him to solve the Reds offensive problems.

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 07:31 PM
The Reds, of course, are being pushed by media and fans to bring up Homer Bailey - right now - and Jay Bruce - right now.

Baker would like to see them, too - when the organization thinks they are ready. He doesnít want to rush them and abort the progress of two 21-year-old futures.

The question? Are they ready? Will they be better than what now occupies the roster, where a lot of dead weight squats.

Bailey is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA at Class AAA Louisville with 16 strikeouts and four walks in 26 1/3 innings. Iíve been told that Bailey was instructed to pretty much toss his curve ball into File 13 and go with his fastball, slider and changeup. Thatís a tough thing because Bailey always relied on that curve and likes to revert to it when he gets in trouble.

The main thing, though, and Baker mentioned this, is that reports indicate Bailey has cut down on his pitch-count, which killed him this spring and got his ticket punched to Louisville.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

SarasotaFan
04-24-2008, 08:35 PM
Reds were pushed by the media / fans last year for Bailey and he didn't live up to the hype.

I'm not so sure he has a true slider. I'd call it more of a cut-fastball.

Caveat Emperor
04-24-2008, 08:53 PM
As a hard thrower, I'm surprised someone didn't come to him earlier in his career and instruct him to deep-6 the curve and go exclusively with the slider.

Aronchis
04-24-2008, 11:03 PM
As a hard thrower, I'm surprised someone didn't come to him earlier in his career and instruct him to deep-6 the curve and go exclusively with the slider.

Maybe they did and he threw a fit.

OnBaseMachine
04-24-2008, 11:10 PM
Maybe they did and he threw a fit.

:rolleyes:

Aronchis
04-24-2008, 11:21 PM
:rolleyes:

Somebody was leaking that stuff on how Bailey was 'uncoachable' 'didn't listen' 'was aloof'. Now everything is peachy and Homer is the greatest again.

Degenerate39
04-25-2008, 10:26 PM
6 Ip, 6 H, 4 R, 3 Bb, 6 K

Cooper
04-26-2008, 11:20 AM
I hope the plan for Bailey to do away with the curve is a short term plan. His curve was his K pitch. I don't understand why they would want to cut that out.

Are they making a plan to make him a reliever. Relievers usually use only 2 pitches.

I just think it's silly to take away the curve--it was the pitch that made him a high K pitcher.

RedlegJake
04-26-2008, 11:41 AM
He's not a 2 pitch pitcher. He is throwing a slider, or as has been reported more of a cut fastball-slider thing, plus the changeup. As for the curve they may want him to get away from it completely for mechanics, or maybe because it was really inconsistent, or maybe they felt he couldn't command it? Whatever the reason, they have basically asked Bailey to remake himself. He's doing his best, too, which should blow away those vapid "uncoachable", "won't listen" cobwebs.

nate
04-26-2008, 11:43 AM
He's doing his best, too, which should blow away those vapid "uncoachable", "won't listen" cobwebs.

Don't underestimate the power of vapidity!

Cooper
04-26-2008, 02:23 PM
It's silly to ask him to re-make himself. He pitched alot of pitches per inning, but it's my feeling that he would have been able to overcome that with more experience. To ask him to do away with the main part of his pitching arsenal seems short sighted....fear being that he will not be able to raise his K rate back to previous levels. At this point, he doesn't appear to be near as dominant as he was in the past (and a big part of his dominance was dropping that big curve in there).

IMO, this appears to me to be a silly strategy -along the lines of asking Adam Dunn to swing at more pitches. He is what he is...

Good teams build on what a player has -they don't try to re-make players. Silly teams ask their better players to be everything and more than what they are -and then they blame the player when he doesn't succeed. If he pitches too many pitches per inning (for a starter)-then make him a reliever and move on.

cincyinco
04-26-2008, 02:38 PM
Where is this idea that he is scrapping his curveball coming from?

I haven't heard or read that anywhere but here.

Its my understanding he's just added the slider and/or cutter or both to his existing arsenal. He might be throwing the curve less right now, but that would seem to me to be because he's trying to refine those other pitches right now. The curve is always gonna be there, it has flashes of greatness. I don't think thats something you just toss into the bin.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2008, 02:41 PM
The Reds, of course, are being pushed by media and fans to bring up Homer Bailey - right now - and Jay Bruce - right now.

Baker would like to see them, too - when the organization thinks they are ready. He doesnít want to rush them and abort the progress of two 21-year-old futures.

The question? Are they ready? Will they be better than what now occupies the roster, where a lot of dead weight squats.

Bailey is 3-1 with a 1.03 ERA at Class AAA Louisville with 16 strikeouts and four walks in 26 1/3 innings. Iíve been told that Bailey was instructed to pretty much toss his curve ball into File 13 and go with his fastball, slider and changeup. Thatís a tough thing because Bailey always relied on that curve and likes to revert to it when he gets in trouble.

The main thing, though, and Baker mentioned this, is that reports indicate Bailey has cut down on his pitch-count, which killed him this spring and got his ticket punched to Louisville.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

That's from Hal. Don't know how true it is.

Aronchis
04-26-2008, 03:08 PM
Homer hasn't been "remade". Just that they have scrapped the curveball. Hie mechanics on his fastball for example, have not really changed at all.

Now lets put 2 and 2 together. Homer strikeouts have fallen in AAA when they really, going by his AA time, shouldn't of. Why have they? If it was something physically the curve was doing to his legs, it would make alot of sense. Maybe his mechanics of it were doing some physical damage.

Coming out here was Homer's MLB bio:MEDIUM-LONG FRAME. GOOD BODY. LONG, SLENDER, BUILD. HIGH WAISTED. LONG ARMS. LARGE HANDS. LOOSE, EFFORTLESS ARM. COMFORT ZONE 93-95 W/ LATE SINK. BALL EXPLODES OUT OF HAND. 11/5 CB W/ TIGHT ROTATION, SHARP K ZONE BITE WHEN OUT FRONT. EXCELLENT MOUND PRESENCE. YOUNG RHP W/ EXTREMELY HIGH CEILING. EFFORTLESS POWER ARM W/ PLUS PITCHABILITY.

So the Reds are trying to turn him into a fastball/changeup pitcher while mixing in a slider. No wonder he was on the block in the offseason as his development has slowed. Unintended consenquences.

fearofpopvol1
04-26-2008, 03:29 PM
You knew a "less than stellar" outing would happen eventually. No biggie though. 4 ER in 6 innings when you don't have your best stuff is fine. Never underestimate the ability to exert damage control.

Degenerate39
04-26-2008, 03:32 PM
You knew a "less than stellar" outing would happen eventually. No biggie though. 4 ER in 6 innings when you don't have your best stuff is fine. Never underestimate the ability to exert damage control.

Apparently having 0 ER or 1 ER in 7 innings isn't fine to some people.

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2008, 02:27 AM
Jocketty on Bailey

I asked Walt Jocketty before the game if the Reds would consider bringing Homer Bailey up as a reliever:

ďI havenít thought of him as anything other than a starter,Ē Jocketty said. ďI havenít really talked to anybody about that.Ē

Bailey is doing what he done the last three years: Dominating in the minors. Heís 2-1with a 1.95 ERA for Triple-A Louisville.

Jocketty brought up Adam Wainwright in St. Louis as a reliever. Wainwright went 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 61 games of relief in 2006. Last year, he was 14-12 with 3.70 ERA as a starter.

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/redsinsider/

dougdirt
04-27-2008, 12:01 PM
I don't get Bailey as a reliever at this point, even if its just to 'get him in' because its not like the back end of our rotation is doing well.

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2008, 12:04 PM
I don't like him as a reliever either.

Reds notebook
Could Homer get the call as reliever? Jocketty says he won't rule it out
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

SAN FRANCISCO - Reds general manager Walt Jocketty didn't rule out bringing up Homer Bailey as a reliever, but he hasn't really considered it, either.

"I haven't thought of him as anything other than a starter," Jocketty said. "I haven't really talked to anybody about that."

Bailey, a 21-year-old right-hander, is doing what he's done the last three years: Dominating in the minors. He's 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA for Triple-A Louisville.

Jocketty brought up Adam Wainwright in St. Louis as a reliever. Wainwright went 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in 61 relief appearances in 2006. Last year, he was 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA as a starter.

Jocketty said there becomes a point when a pitcher has little to prove in the minors.

"When a guy continues to do well at that level, yeah," Jocketty said. "There are some things they had him working on. From what I understand, he's done well with what they've asked him.

"Sometimes you want to make sure they keep repeating it. We're keeping close tabs on it."

Matt Belisle was making his second start in the fifth spot in the rotation Saturday night. He gave up seven runs (five earned) on 12 hits in the first one. Saturday, he allowed four runs in five innings before he was pulled.

If he continues to struggle, Bailey's chance might come as a starter.

Jocketty hasn't seen Bailey pitch at Louisville this year.

"I was planning to," he said. "I haven't had a chance. I still might. I'd like to see Double-A and Triple-A. I'd like to see (Daryl) Thompson pitch."

Thompson, a 22-year-old right-hander, is 2-1 with a 0.57 ERA at Double-A Chattanooga. He has allowed 20 hits, struck 36 and walked four in 311/3 innings.

"He's just dealing," Jocketty said. "It's nice.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080427/SPT04/804270410/

IslandRed
04-27-2008, 01:07 PM
IMO, this appears to me to be a silly strategy -along the lines of asking Adam Dunn to swing at more pitches. He is what he is...

Good teams build on what a player has -they don't try to re-make players.

Bailey's 21 years old. He's years away from "he is what he is." He's still supposed to be learning. That's what the minor leagues are for -- refining mechanics, refining command, AND figuring out which pitches are going to be MLB-grade and which aren't. Guys older than Bailey pick up new pitches all the time.

The curve ball is a tough pitch, especially the 12-to-6 variety. A good curve thrown too low becomes a bouncer; a bad curve thrown on the proper trajectory is on a tee for a major-league hitter. With less room for error, the only guys who throw a lot of curves in the majors are the ones who have exceptionally reliable command of it, a level of command the Reds' development people obviously feel Bailey won't attain. The slider, if not quite the same hammer, is more forgiving. And he doesn't need a breaking pitch that's "here it is, bet you can't hit it" good. It just needs to be good enough to punish people for sitting on his fastball. I like that he's working on a cutter too, something to add movement and some mph variation from his regular fastball.

Aronchis
04-27-2008, 08:20 PM
Bailey's command of his bender never was that bad it should be abandoned. You guys need to get some 06 footage.

Something has happened here because it disappeared once he got to AAA and only showed occassionally. We saw about 75% of it during his last 3 starts in the majors last year which was a improvement from his original stint. Yet, for some reason, the Reds asked Bailey to totally abandon it this spring.

I don't know if it was a physically demanding pitch or Bailey got some kind of shellshock, but he isn't throwing it anymore. We could use some inside sources on this one.

People were so overfocused on Homer's fastball and the command issue they missed what may have been the reason for the struggle, his curve.

camisadelgolf
04-27-2008, 08:35 PM
Maybe I'm pulling this out of nowhere, but I think the Reds asked Bailey to abandon (or at least cut back on) the curveball because it can't be thrown for a strike without hanging too much.

Aronchis
04-27-2008, 11:48 PM
Maybe I'm pulling this out of nowhere, but I think the Reds asked Bailey to abandon (or at least cut back on) the curveball because it can't be thrown for a strike without hanging too much.

Again, unlikely. That curve was Homer's bread and butter pitch. It never hanged that much. The curve we saw in 2007 was a shell(minus the last 3 starts when we actually got a whiff of it) of what it was in 2006. Something happened. I bet we never find out.

reds44
04-28-2008, 12:07 AM
Everytime Bailey threw a curve it was up in the zone.

He could just never get it down.

cincyinco
04-28-2008, 12:07 AM
All early scouting reports said his curve with very tight. I hope he wouldn't abandon it, even if he did lose command of it. He can get it back if he keeps throwing it.

Can't believe they scrapped it, because along wtih his fastball that was a potential plus plus pitch.

Aronchis
04-28-2008, 12:20 AM
Everytime Bailey threw a curve it was up in the zone.

He could just never get it down.

Nope, watch his 2006 curve. Every curve you have seen him throw is from 2007 and that is when his k/9 drop started.

"All early scouting reports said his curve with very tight. I hope he wouldn't abandon it, even if he did lose command of it. He can get it back if he keeps throwing it".

You just don't lose command of it. Something causes you to lose command of it. Either physical or mental.

cincyinco
04-28-2008, 12:50 AM
Well, I can't believe it would be physical, otherwise why would they have him throw a slider, something even more strenuous on the elbow.

Mental? perhaps, not like some haven't questioned whats between his ears at one point or another - claims I don't believe.

Maybe his mechanics changed a bit, I dont know. I never really got to actually SEE him when he was in the lower levels... And I haven't read any analysis that would explain it. And the curve I saw in spring was pretty damn good still, and his change had made major strides IMO.

I just don't understand why they would have him scrap his best potential offspeed pitch. One that showed the ability to be right up there to rival his fastball.

RedsBuck36
04-28-2008, 04:21 AM
I havent made very many posts on here but I did hear something on the broadcast, MLB tv, about 2 weeks ago regarding Homer and the curveball.

It sounds to me like they wanted him to stop throwing it for a while so that his other pitches would develop and he would stop relying on it as a K pitch. The pitch is still there and quite possibly they will bring it back after they learn he can throw strikes with the slider and change consistently. There may be other reasons as well for putting it on the shelf but it sounded like to me that they didnt actually abandon it forever for what its worth.

Grande Donkey
04-28-2008, 09:28 AM
I havent made very many posts on here but I did hear something on the broadcast, MLB tv, about 2 weeks ago regarding Homer and the curveball.

It sounds to me like they wanted him to stop throwing it for a while so that his other pitches would develop and he would stop relying on it as a K pitch. The pitch is still there and quite possibly they will bring it back after they learn he can throw strikes with the slider and change consistently. There may be other reasons as well for putting it on the shelf but it sounded like to me that they didnt actually abandon it forever for what its worth.That would be the best case scenario. I hope thats how it is.

IslandRed
04-28-2008, 09:34 AM
You just don't lose command of it. Something causes you to lose command of it. Either physical or mental.

Just purely a hypothetical, suppose the Reds discovered he was tipping his curve and he struggled to command the pitch after making the adjustments.


I havent made very many posts on here but I did hear something on the broadcast, MLB tv, about 2 weeks ago regarding Homer and the curveball.

It sounds to me like they wanted him to stop throwing it for a while so that his other pitches would develop and he would stop relying on it as a K pitch. The pitch is still there and quite possibly they will bring it back after they learn he can throw strikes with the slider and change consistently. There may be other reasons as well for putting it on the shelf but it sounded like to me that they didnt actually abandon it forever for what its worth.

That would be plausible also.

OnBaseMachine
04-28-2008, 11:15 AM
I havent made very many posts on here but I did hear something on the broadcast, MLB tv, about 2 weeks ago regarding Homer and the curveball.

It sounds to me like they wanted him to stop throwing it for a while so that his other pitches would develop and he would stop relying on it as a K pitch. The pitch is still there and quite possibly they will bring it back after they learn he can throw strikes with the slider and change consistently. There may be other reasons as well for putting it on the shelf but it sounded like to me that they didnt actually abandon it forever for what its worth.

That makes the most sense. Thanks for the info.

Aronchis
04-28-2008, 05:30 PM
That makes the most sense. Thanks for the info.

or the most hope. We have seen some signs Homer's changeup has improved, but not enough to be a legit "out pitch". Homer needs the bender to be complete. Without it, he is just a no stuff power arm.

M2
04-28-2008, 07:02 PM
I havent made very many posts on here but I did hear something on the broadcast, MLB tv, about 2 weeks ago regarding Homer and the curveball.

It sounds to me like they wanted him to stop throwing it for a while so that his other pitches would develop and he would stop relying on it as a K pitch. The pitch is still there and quite possibly they will bring it back after they learn he can throw strikes with the slider and change consistently. There may be other reasons as well for putting it on the shelf but it sounded like to me that they didnt actually abandon it forever for what its worth.

Good post. I know I wanted him to throw fewer curves even during the 2006 season. A kid who can throw hard should NOT be relying on the curve to the extent Bailey was. That pitching pattern won't grow with you.

The Reds very well could be reprogramming Homer at the moment, with the curve to start reappearing as the weather heats up.

It could also be something physical. Don't some kids experience nerve damages in their wrists if they snap off too many curves at young age and then it affects their control of the pitch because they can't "feel" it anymore?

Thanks in advance to anyone who might have some input on this. I know I've run across talk along those lines, but I'm not 100% sure about the specifics.

AdamDunn
04-29-2008, 11:21 PM
Is it time to send Cueto to AAA and bring up Bailey?

Screwball
04-29-2008, 11:25 PM
Is it time to send Cueto to AAA and bring up Bailey?

No.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2008, 12:10 AM
Is it time to send Cueto to AAA and bring up Bailey?

Heck no.

AdamDunn
04-30-2008, 12:58 AM
Can anyone explain why not? Cueto has gotten lit up recently. Bailey has been pretty dang good in AAA. Cueto hasn't done much since his first couple of starts. I'm beginning to worry it's a mental thing.

MikeS21
04-30-2008, 07:03 AM
After watching Cueto last night, I think all he needs is a couple of sessions with a pitching coach. His mechanics have gotten a little out of sync and his control is suffering. I also add that with a 22 year old rookie, this is perfectly normal. He's not lost it. He's not mental. He's young. And almost any veteran pitcher will be able to point out to him what he is doing wrong.

I'm almost positive after last night, they'll schedule some film time and an extra bullpen session or two in order to get things back in sync.

SarasotaFan
04-30-2008, 07:04 AM
Can anyone explain why not? Cueto has gotten lit up recently. Bailey has been pretty dang good in AAA. Cueto hasn't done much since his first couple of starts. I'm beginning to worry it's a mental thing.
That's funny. Doesn't mean Bailey will do pretty dang good in Cincy. Like hitters, pitchers have good days and bad days. He's only thrown 6 times. You don't pull the trigger that quick on a prospect.

Besides, I'd bring Lehr up before anyone

RedsBuck36
04-30-2008, 07:17 AM
Cueto's still throwing strikes. His strikes are just a little too good right now. He appeared to be falling off to the 1st base side a little more than usual last night which explains the ball being further up in the strike zone more. He's let his youth get to him a bit lately, meaning he gets visibly frustrated and starts to overthrow. He just needs to calm himself and let it fly. He'll be perfectly fine.

Homer by most accounts is getting his control where it needs to be and will be up soon. Cueto stays. The one to go will be Belisle most likely and then to the pen while someone in the pen takes a ride elsewhere.

dougdirt
04-30-2008, 11:45 AM
Cueto's still throwing strikes. His strikes are just a little too good right now. He appeared to be falling off to the 1st base side a little more than usual last night which explains the ball being further up in the strike zone more. He's let his youth get to him a bit lately, meaning he gets visibly frustrated and starts to overthrow. He just needs to calm himself and let it fly. He'll be perfectly fine.

Homer by most accounts is getting his control where it needs to be and will be up soon. Cueto stays. The one to go will be Belisle most likely and then to the pen while someone in the pen takes a ride elsewhere.
Cueto was throwing strikes, but they were no where near where he wanted to throw them at. He was missing inside the zone big time. Its one of the concerns made about him and his control that scouts had talked about the previous two years. He throws strikes often, but at times he misses inside the zone a whole lot and that leads to problems. I am not worried about the kid at all though, but its not something that wasn't known about.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2008, 12:53 PM
Homer today: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 10 K.

M2
04-30-2008, 02:14 PM
Homer today: 7 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 10 K.

Sweet

OnBaseMachine
05-01-2008, 07:24 PM
Homer Bailey continued to make a case that he deserves a spot in the Cincinnati Reds' rotation yesterday with a power pitching display at Louisville Slugger Field. Bailey struck out 10 in seven innings in the Louisville Bats' 4-3 victory over the Toledo Mud Hens.

It's the most strikeouts the right-hander has had in a Triple-A game and one shy of his professional career high.

Bailey, who has been dominant for Louisville and improved to 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA, showed sizzling stuff early with two strikeouts in the first inning. He ended four innings with strikeouts, and he struck out his final two batters in the seventh.

"His stuff has just been electric coming out of his hands," Louisville manager Rick Sweet said. "All of his stuff is coming out of his hands better. Fastball, slider, curveball change-up; all of his pitches are better. Ö He's in much more control of what he's trying to do."

Last year Bailey went 4-2 with the Reds but had a 5.76 ERA. He was unable to secure a spot with them out of spring training this season.

Getting sent back to the minors can be tough on young pitchers, but Bailey, who turns 22 on Saturday, seems to take a matter-of-fact approach about his future.

"You worry about your next game, your next pitch," he said. "I don't have any control over it. I don't worry about it. Right now this team has been playing well. That's the biggest thing I focus on."

Bailey had a 2-1 lead going into his final inning. Toledo's Erick Almonte rocketed a line drive over the left-center-field fence for a two-run home run and a 3-2 lead. Bailey regrouped by striking out Nick Trzesniak and Derek Wathan to end the seventh.

Louisville picked up Bailey in the bottom half of the inning. The Bats loaded the bases, and Paul Janish hit a one-out, two-run single that made Bailey the winning pitcher.

After the game, Bailey was still annoyed about Almonte's 387-foot shot.

"It was a fastball right down the middle," said Bailey, who allowed five hits and two walks. "I was behind in the count. He did what he was supposed to do."

So what more does Bailey have to do?

"Just keep doing what he's doing," Sweet said.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080501/SPORTS/805010463/1002

Aronchis
05-01-2008, 07:49 PM
Homer hasn't shown much to prove he belongs in the majors yet. He still has another 50I's to prove himself before he is stuck down in AAA for the whole season.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2008, 11:07 AM
Triple-A Louisville: The Bats' 4-3 victory Wednesday over Toledo marked their 16th win, matching the franchise record for victories in April (16-6, 2000).

In Wednesday's win, Homer Bailey showed why he's one of the Reds best prospects. His line: 3 runs on 5 hits in 7 innings (2 walks, 10 strikeouts, 108 pitches, 66 strikes).

Bailey's 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA in six games. Here's an even further breakdown of Bailey's numbers in Louisville:

Bailey vs. left-handed batters: (14-for-74, .189 batting average, 3r, 1hr, 3rbi, 4bb, 13k).

Bailey vs. right-handed batters: (16-for-67, .239 batting average, 7r, 3hr, 7rbi, 5bb, 19k).

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080502/SPT04/805020406/

The_jbh
05-02-2008, 09:45 PM
I think if Beslile gets blown up tomorrow, Bailey could take his slot next week

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2008, 10:01 PM
I think if Beslile gets blown up tomorrow, Bailey could take his slot next week

I don't. I think Fogg would go back to the rotation. I think it's still too early to bring Bailey up (and Jocketty has acknowledged that as well).

fearofpopvol1
05-06-2008, 07:08 PM
So, the outing last night wasn't stellar...but it wasn't like the guy got rocked. I'm very impressed that his Ks have been climbing. 7 hits though is an awful lot, but I guess the defense sucked last night so I'll give him a bit of a pass. Hopefully his next outing is stellar.

SarasotaFan
05-07-2008, 09:56 AM
So, the outing last night wasn't stellar...but it wasn't like the guy got rocked. I'm very impressed that his Ks have been climbing. 7 hits though is an awful lot, but I guess the defense sucked last night so I'll give him a bit of a pass. Hopefully his next outing is stellar.
how'd the defense suck again ?? :confused:

7 hits is not a lot for 7 IP - it's the walks around the hits that can kill a pitcher

dougdirt
05-07-2008, 11:48 AM
how'd the defense suck again ?? :confused:

7 hits is not a lot for 7 IP - it's the walks around the hits that can kill a pitcher

There were a few plays that hit infielders gloves that went down as hits, that at least the radio announcer was questioning if they should have been hits. Drew Anderson also lost on in the lights that landed three feet in front of him while he was standing there unsure where the ball was.

SarasotaFan
05-07-2008, 02:28 PM
There were a few plays that hit infielders gloves that went down as hits, that at least the radio announcer was questioning if they should have been hits. Drew Anderson also lost on in the lights that landed three feet in front of him while he was standing there unsure where the ball was.
oh ok...i had checked the game recap and it really doesn't tell you that :)

Matt700wlw
05-07-2008, 04:38 PM
Fastball, slider, curveball change-up

That's 4 pitches!!!

Aronchis
05-11-2008, 05:32 PM
Bailey should dump the slider and focus everything on changeup curveball and go max effort with your fastball. Bailey should be looking to strikeout everybody and everything.

Oh, yeah, chill the partying. Last night was a bit embarrasing.

I find it is no surprise, Homer's decline started when the Reds hired Dick Pole, the master of the ignorant. Bailey isn't a finesse pitcher nor can he survive pitching in the low 90's, nor should his command be good at this stage of his career. Throw hard, break harder should be his motto. This is like telling Justin Verlander to stop throwing 99mph because it may blow out your arm.

I am seeing ugly signs of Pole's influence with Cueto as well since the season started. Pole's future depended on his ability to refine the young arms and he has done a poor job to this point(I don't count Volquez as he was a finished product by the time the trade was made).

Stop the "pitch to contact" madness.

Oxilon
05-11-2008, 05:35 PM
You want to see a 21 year old whose already a millionaire and bound for majors some time this year to quit partying? Sorry, but I think anybody in that situation would be down for having a few drinks. Baseball players are human too...they have just as much of a right to go out and drink on their free time as all of us do.

And how is Volquez a finished project? The dude was in Single A last season, albeit to retune is stuff, but never the less, Volquez was hardly a finished product.

Grande Donkey
05-11-2008, 05:37 PM
You want to see a 21 year old whose already a millionaire and bound for majors some time this year to quit partying? Sorry, but I think anybody in that situation would be down for having a few drinks. Baseball players are human too...they have just as much of a right to go out and drink on their free time as all of us do.I kind of agree with Aronchis. He needs to chill on partying the day before his start (if thats what it was). I don't care if he parties after and the days between his starts but it is stupid to party the night before your start.

Aronchis
05-11-2008, 05:39 PM
You want to see a 21 year old whose already a millionaire and bound for majors some time this year to quit partying? Sorry, but I think anybody in that situation would be down for having a few drinks. Baseball players are human too...they have just as much of a right to go out and drink on their free time as all of us do.

And how is Volquez a finished project? The dude was in Single A last season, albeit to retune is stuff, but never the less, Volquez was hardly a finished product.

Volquez already had a full year in AAA and pitched well minus the walks before the weird demotion he didn't need. The guy is about as finished as your going to get.

Drinking is fine, but not when it is your day to pitch.

SarasotaFan
05-11-2008, 06:11 PM
Who said he was out partying the day before ?? Were you and Louisville and following him around all night after he left the ballpark ??

David Wells made a lot of money doing it....

Degenerate39
05-11-2008, 07:01 PM
Who said he was out partying the day before ?? Were you and Louisville and following him around all night after he left the ballpark ??

David Wells made a lot of money doing it....

The great Aronchis knows all

tbball10
05-11-2008, 07:34 PM
the game was a night game, so he wasnt hung over unless he drank in the morning. this is absolutely the most rediculous theory i have ever heard.

Oxilon
05-12-2008, 02:44 PM
the game was a night game, so he wasnt hung over unless he drank in the morning. this is absolutely the most rediculous theory i have ever heard.

You obviously have never been really hungover. :thumbup:

KoryMac5
05-12-2008, 03:51 PM
I am all for rumors in regards to trades etc... however, when rumors spread in regards to someone's supposed partying it needs to stop. I don't mind Aronchis's views on Reds prospects, in fact I think he gives a nice balance to the minor league forum. I do object though to his posts stating that Bailey parties too much. Unless you have personal confirmation of this, or two named sources to back this rumor up I would ask you to stop spreading this info. This is not a tabloid forum it is a place to discuss Red's baseball in an appropriate manner.

Aronchis
05-12-2008, 04:00 PM
Bailey's record in Dayton speaks for itself. I doubt he has changed.

Not hungover at night? Good grief, some hangovers last days.

FWIW, hopefully Jocketty tells Homer to ditch the low velocity bs and just get back to firing up darts in the zone to the best of his ability. I bet his location improves.

camisadelgolf
05-13-2008, 03:09 AM
I'm not sure I want to trust insider information (lol) from a guy who is an expert on hangovers.

bucksfan2
05-13-2008, 08:50 AM
Bailey's record in Dayton speaks for itself. I doubt he has changed.

Not hungover at night? Good grief, some hangovers last days.

FWIW, hopefully Jocketty tells Homer to ditch the low velocity bs and just get back to firing up darts in the zone to the best of his ability. I bet his location improves.

Mickey Mantle played pretty well hungover. David Wells also was a pretty good pitcher with a hangover.

To suggest that Bailey pitched poorly because he was hung over is pretty off mark.

Heath
05-13-2008, 11:58 AM
I'm closing this thread, but ask you to start a new one. A new thread regarding Homer's abilities in between the lines of play, not his "alleged" improprieties off the field without any shred of written evidence. That is a rule 5 violation.