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WMR
04-08-2008, 11:29 PM
That's all I got. Maybe he's got something left in the tank, but it sure doesn't look that way to me.

cincrazy
04-08-2008, 11:30 PM
My friend, it's one game. Weathers gave up the winning run, but he's not why we lost the game. If there was anyone in that dugout that could hit, we would've coasted.

MWM
04-08-2008, 11:30 PM
People have been saying he looks done for a few years now.

Unassisted
04-08-2008, 11:30 PM
I think he pitched one inning too many tonight. His tank was fine in the 9th.

WMR
04-08-2008, 11:31 PM
My friend, it's one game. Weathers gave up the winning run, but he's not why we lost the game. If there was anyone in that dugout that could hit, we would've coasted.

Agree on everything you say.

I'm just judging by what he's been throwing over his appearances to this point, not just this one outing.

HokieRed
04-08-2008, 11:33 PM
Lots of attention and talk paid to the pitching in the last year; not enough to offense.

cincrazy
04-08-2008, 11:34 PM
Agree on everything you say.

I'm just judging by what he's been throwing over his appearances to this point, not just this one outing.

I understand where you're coming from. He just doesn't have the ability to miss bats at this point. Also, his fastball doesn't seem to have as much movement on it, I don't think I've seen one fastball catch the inside corner for strike three yet this year, which has been his specialty the last few years.

But with that being said, Weathers is the least of my worries right now. We can minimize his role in the bullpen, unfortunately we can't hide our black hole of an offense.

Falls City Beer
04-08-2008, 11:34 PM
He wasn't that great last season. He's a year older. It might work out; I wouldn't count on it.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-08-2008, 11:36 PM
I predict Weathers K rate won't hit 4.5/9IP this year.

Let's hope he's BABIP lucky, because he doesn't miss any bats.

KronoRed
04-08-2008, 11:38 PM
Wasn't this topic started last year about 5 times? ;)

flyer85
04-08-2008, 11:39 PM
when you don't miss bats you end up relying heavily on luck and defense.

WMR
04-08-2008, 11:42 PM
Wasn't this topic started last year about 5 times? ;)

I swear, I never posted it last year. He just looks like he has lost quite a bit since the previous season. Maybe if they limit his exposure to single innings he'll fare better more consistently.

Doc. Scott
04-09-2008, 12:45 AM
I don't know; I think he just looks "lost".

Kc61
04-09-2008, 01:41 AM
Weathers is one of my favorite Reds. But he cannot go multiple ininngs. He couldn't last year and he obviously cannot this year. He looks like a different pitcher after one inning. He did last year. He is much more effective in a single inning.

I know it. Anyone following his performance last year knows it. Why didn't the manager and pitching coach know it tonight?

I didn't see the game. Maybe there was some reason for leaving Weathers in for the tenth inning. Maybe he had an easy ninth, I don't know.

But as a general rule, Weathers works one inning. Period.

Hoosier Red
04-09-2008, 08:05 AM
But he led the NL in multi inning saves last year.

I think getting him through two innings is fine. He gave up three singles, none of which was exactly torched.
He had one appearance when he walked the bases loaded, and he's had two appearances where he's gone zip zip zip.

So what's the difference from last year.

cumberlandreds
04-09-2008, 08:09 AM
Weathers is one of my favorite Reds. But he cannot go multiple ininngs. He couldn't last year and he obviously cannot this year. He looks like a different pitcher after one inning. He did last year. He is much more effective in a single inning.

I know it. Anyone following his performance last year knows it. Why didn't the manager and pitching coach know it tonight?

I didn't see the game. Maybe there was some reason for leaving Weathers in for the tenth inning. Maybe he had an easy ninth, I don't know.

But as a general rule, Weathers works one inning. Period.

Exactly right! He's a one inning pitcher. Period. Everytime last year he went more than one he got into trouble. I don't why a manager can't see that?

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 08:12 AM
Nothing was wrong with Stanton either until something was wrong with Stanton. Weathers is 38 (will be 39 at the end of the season). It's probably not the worst policy at this point to limit the guy's exposure.

It was the right strategy to try to get 2 innings out of a reliever at that point, but the wrong reliever.

Roy Tucker
04-09-2008, 08:26 AM
when you don't miss bats you end up relying heavily on luck and defense.

I think this is pretty much it. Last night, Hardy went down and got a good pitch, got bunted over, Kendall just pooches one to right field, and Weeks hits a seeing-eye grounder and that's all she wrote. Nothing hit particularly hard, but lots of contact.

PuffyPig
04-09-2008, 09:21 AM
Exactly right! He's a one inning pitcher. Period. Everytime last year he went more than one he got into trouble. I don't why a manager can't see that?


"Everytime" is a strong statement for someone who led the majors in multi-inning saves last year.

mbgrayson
04-09-2008, 09:43 AM
Oh come on now....given that Weathers has a low K rate, he is going to give up runs. Multi-inning games just increase the chances. He has an expected ERA of about 4.50, and that means he will give up a run every other inning, on average.

It is all a matter of where the ball landed, and last night the batted balls missed gloves.
1. Leadoff single on an 0-2 count by Hardy to center. Well hit but not crushed.
2. Sac bunt on 1st pitch by Dillon.
3. Softly hit single to right by Kendall falls in front of Freel. (1st and 3rd, one out).
4. Weeks slaps a ground ball through the hole into left, scoring Hardy with the winning run.

None of these three 10th inning hits were really hammered, they just fell in. That is going to happen, particularly to pitchers like Weathers who only strike out one batter or so every other inning.

Gameday shows that his fastabll was 89 both innings: no drop in velocity. His location was so-so. But I see no reason for not allowing multi-inning appearances.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 10:18 AM
I agree mbgrayson, this is what happens when you don't miss bats. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that regardless of his rested state, we won't see Cordero in many tie games this year, even though he's clearly the right option there.

RedlegJake
04-09-2008, 10:25 AM
Weathers has games like last night's all the time. He's a competent reliever but not a dominant one. I see no evidence he's losing anything on his stuff. He always walks the tightrope because he is a "pitch to contact" pitcher. He works his way out of far more jams than not but it seems he's always in a jam. Last night shouldn;t have ever reached the tenth. No way I lay this one on David Weathers. Try shody defense early on that allowed the first run to score. Reds win 2-1.

Kc61
04-09-2008, 11:03 AM
[QUOTE=Hoosier Red;1597250]But he led the NL in multi inning saves last year.
QUOTE]

Didn't realize that. Surprising because he seems much better in his first inning of work usually.

IslandRed
04-09-2008, 11:04 AM
RedlegJake hit it, I think... he's competent but not dominant. The good news is, at this time last year Weathers was our best reliever by far. This year, Burton looks terrific and Cordero is doing what we signed him to do, the rest of the pen has been okay for the most part... we're going to be in very good shape taking a lead into the late innings. We just gotta get some leads.

Hoosier Red
04-09-2008, 01:11 PM
[QUOTE=Hoosier Red;1597250]But he led the NL in multi inning saves last year.
QUOTE]

Didn't realize that. Surprising because he seems much better in his first inning of work usually.

Now multi inning generally meant come in with 2 on and 1 out, get out of jam in 8th. Get into jam in 9th, get out of jam in 9th.

So your recollections probably weren't so far off.

REDREAD
04-09-2008, 01:22 PM
Didn't see the game on TV, but he seemed pretty bad last night.

It really blew my mind last year when at the trade deadline, Wayne said that Weathers was absolutely off the table. Wayne saw Weathers as one of his few solid bullpen guys and was terrified to trade him, instead of seeing Weathers as a fading pitcher that had some value to a contender last year.

Anyhow, this is another reason why I really didn't like giving away Coutlangus. I see this bullpen as a house of cards. Beyond Cordero, everyone is pretty much a wildcard. Some guys, like Weathers and Lincoln aren't great bets to be solid from their profile. In fact.. all other the guys are a crapshoot.

With very little quality depth in the organization to reinforce the bullpen (Belisle coming off the DL), I am nervous that as the as the season progresses we are going to be forced to call up Bray, Maj, Ricky Stone and assorted AAA scrubs. Again, maybe Bray finally gets healthy and effective, but I see him as a wildcard as well. My point is Belisle is the only "reinforcement" for the pen that I feel comfortable with.

We really need strong seasons from two of the young guys out of the pen (Burton, Coffey, Bray?, Belisle?) or else this bullpen is going to be a disaster.
It's kind of foolhardy IMO to depend heavy on Weathers, Mercker, and Lincoln, but it looks like that was Wayne's plan.

Unassisted
04-09-2008, 03:01 PM
Rickie Weeks told a Sporting News reporter that the Brewers have Weathers figured out.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=397433

Kendall singled off David Weathers (0-1) to right field to set up Weeks, who said he knew what Weathers was going to throw after remembering previous at bats against him.

"He's always been a cutter-slider guy," Weeks said. "So, just sit on the little cutter-slider and drive it somewhere."

Weeks did, just past shortstop Jeff Keppinger to give Brewers reliever Salomon Torres (1-0) the win.

WMR
04-11-2008, 11:00 PM
:(

HumnHilghtFreel
04-11-2008, 11:09 PM
He just doesn't look like he has an ounce of "stuff" left in his arm so far this year.

RedlegJake
04-11-2008, 11:18 PM
He just doesn't look like he has an ounce of "stuff" left in his arm so far this year.

Bah. His velocity is right where it was. What he's not doing is locating it very well, and he is getting dinked and dimed. That's luck but he's always going to give up hits. Final result is no runs scored. The weather may also affect him a bit. 38 y/o arms and shoulders don't loosen up in cool weather. When the temps go up he'll get better.

He doesn't allow a run even if he made it a tightrope, the Reds can't score and lose 1-0 and the only posts are about how bad Weathers looks?

HumnHilghtFreel
04-11-2008, 11:24 PM
Bah. His velocity is right where it was. What he's not doing is locating it very well, and he is getting dinked and dimed. That's luck but he's always going to give up hits. Final result is no runs scored. The weather may also affect him a bit. 38 y/o arms and shoulders don't loosen up in cool weather. When the temps go up he'll get better.

He doesn't allow a run even if he made it a tightrope, the Reds can't score and lose 1-0 and the only posts are about how bad Weathers looks?

I did qualify my blanket statement by saying "so far" :)

But you have a good point, that the weather may have something to do with it. And yes, the offense was the problem tonight, not the pitching.

WVRedsFan
04-11-2008, 11:28 PM
I really don't see much difference in Weathers from last year to this year. He's wild, erratic, and usually gets the job done. He drives you crazy.
Sort of like Danny Graves. I do think any urge Krivsky gets to extend him should be met with immediate dismissal.

RedlegJake
04-11-2008, 11:42 PM
Sort of like Danny Graves. I do think any urge Krivsky gets to extend him should be met with immediate dismissal.

I agree with that. This should be Weathers last hurrah for the Reds, younger arms await their turn.

mth123
04-12-2008, 07:24 AM
The Weathers we all seem to think of is the guy who has been more effective in 2006 and 2007 than at just about any point in his career. He did put together some good years in the 2000 to 2003 time frame, but those stats were mostly accumulated in lower leverage roles. It really wasn't until 2005 when the Reds began using Weathers in "game on the line" situations out of necessity, that the Weathers that we generally think of was established. In 2005, Weathers was a fairly decent Middle Reliever. Nothing great, but not a weakness either.

In 2006, Weathers became the Reds closer by default and put up a pretty solid year. But a little scrutiny reveals that much of 2006' success was fueled by a .237 BABIP. That is simply an outlier even for Weathers and his ability to hold BABIP below major league averages.

In 2007, Weathers came out of the gate in dominant fashion. In the first half, Weathers combined exceptional control (2.45 BB/9 vs. a career total of 3.97) with a strong bat missing tendancy (6.95 K/9 vs. a career of 6.43). In the second half Weathers BB/9 "normalized" to a career-like 4.01 while his K Rate dropped alarmimgly to 3.74/9. Weathers ability to miss bats fell off a cliff!

That leaves Weathers a large question mark for many. Is his career run of the last couple of years over with? Was the 2006 BABIP "luck" and 1st half of 2007 effectiveness an anomoly? Did his second half of 2007 drop in K-Rate signal that Weathers was turning into Kirk Saarloos (a guy who walks more than he Ks)? Did age start to catch-up with a guy who will be 39 in September? Did the Reds ride Weathers so hard the last couple of years that his arm simply can't rebound (and at his age it will be tougher)? Is the 2004/2005 vintage Weathers (4ish ERA with some control issues) a more reasonable expectation and if so is that good enough for the role the Reds seem to be counting on from Weathers? IMO those are legitimate questions and Weathers performance so far hasn't done anything to settle the issue. The Reds need Weathers, but I think expecting the guy from 2006 or the first half of 2007 is not realistic. I just hope what we get is good enough.

IslandRed
04-12-2008, 11:24 AM
Rickie Weeks told a Sporting News reporter that the Brewers have Weathers figured out.

...

"He's always been a cutter-slider guy," Weeks said. "So, just sit on the little cutter-slider and drive it somewhere."


Weathers is pushing 40 years old and you're just now figuring this out? Don't be TOO proud of yourself, Rickie.

VR
04-12-2008, 11:57 AM
Weathers is pushing 40 years old and you're just now figuring this out? Don't be TOO proud of yourself, Rickie.

1.37 earnie, 1.45 BAA vs. Mil. the last 3 years. Richie, this old man has been punking you guys for some time now.

boognish
04-12-2008, 12:05 PM
The risk with Weathers is significantly increased by his age. At this point, we are asking him to not fall off the cliff Stanton-style. I also get the feeling that were Weathers 23, 28, or even 33, his second half last season and handful of appearances this year would be viewed less as a harbinger of doom and more of a classic Narronian overuse (see Coffey, Todd).

It isn't that his stuff is bad, as it is really not noticeably worse than last year. MAybe I should look at some Pitch f/x to verify, but regardless of the results of such a project, Weathers is under contract this year until he proves he can't get ANYONE out. I agree he should not be extended after this season, but I don't think his current contract is a bad one. It had risk asociated with it when it was signed, no doubt, but at the least this team is no longer in the position it was when the contract was signed. Now there are promising reinforcements in the minors even considering the questionable move to get rid of Coutlangus.