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Wheelhouse
04-09-2008, 12:09 AM
10, 6, 15, 15, 10, 17, 12, 16

Hideous.

reds44
04-09-2008, 12:12 AM
We won half those games, think of THAT. They will start hitting, I'm not too worried.

Caveat Emperor
04-09-2008, 12:16 AM
10, 6, 15, 15, 10, 17, 12, 16

Hideous.

Lineup construction is hurting -- namely hitting Edwin Encarnacion behind Adam Dunn. Dunn is getting junkballed, and I'd be shocked if it was for any reason other than the belief that Edwin is a dead-out at the plate right now.

If Dunn isn't seeing pitching because Edwin isn't hitting, that's effectively robbing the middle of the lineup of any productivity.

Time to drop Edwin down in the batting order until he figures out what the hell is wrong with himself (or until A-Gon comes back and Kepp can take Edwin's spot).

WVRedsFan
04-09-2008, 12:52 AM
The lineup construction is very bad. Patterson is more a 6 hitter than a leadoff hitter. Keppinger is the perfect leadoff hitter. He's not especially fast, but gets hits and gets on base. You follow that with Dunn and then Griffey. Follow that up with Phillips and Votto. Then go to Patterson. Encarnacion, and the catcher of the day. It would look like this:

1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Dunn, LF
3 - Griffey, RF
4 - Phillips, 2B
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Patterson, CF
7 - Encarnacion, 3B
8 - Bako, C

What am I missing?

SteelSD
04-09-2008, 12:57 AM
10, 6, 15, 15, 10, 17, 12, 16

Hideous.

Those aren't the actual number of Runners LOB. The real numbers are 5, 3, 10, 6, 6, 8, 8, 11.

That's a difference of 101 versus 57 over 8 games. The reality is that the Reds have left, on average, 7 Runners per game on the bases. That's about half of what you've positioned.

Wheelhouse
04-09-2008, 01:33 AM
Those aren't the actual number of Runners LOB. The real numbers are 5, 3, 10, 6, 6, 8, 8, 11.

That's a difference of 101 versus 57 over 8 games. The reality is that the Reds have left, on average, 7 Runners per game on the bases. That's about half of what you've positioned.

Left On Base as in the number of runners left on base by Reds players when they make an out, not at the end of an inning. It is the LOB total in the official MLB boxscore.

Kc61
04-09-2008, 01:54 AM
Left On Base as in the number of runners left on base by Reds players when they make an out, not at the end of an inning. It is the LOB total in the official MLB boxscore.

I think Steel's correct. Team LOB is different from the sum of the individual LOBs. It's the team LOB (the number ending innings) that counts.

Folks on this site are fixated on walks. The Reds have some good walkers. But they don't have enough good hitters. There's not one true top hitter on the team. Dunn is a top power hitter. Phillips hits for power for a second baseman. But the Reds lack the consistent .290 - .310 middle of the order hitters who knock in runs consistently.

Griffey, even at this stage, is the closest the Reds come to a top hitter. He certainly was one earlier in his career, but now the Reds should be relying on others.

I think that's why the Reds have these stretches when they don't score and leave guys on. They don't have enough really good hitters.

Spring~Fields
04-09-2008, 04:29 AM
The lineup construction is very bad. Patterson is more a 6 hitter than a leadoff hitter. Keppinger is the perfect leadoff hitter.
1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Dunn, LF
3 - Griffey, RF
4 - Phillips, 2B
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Patterson, CF
7 - Encarnacion, 3B
8 - Bako, C

What am I missing?

1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Dunn, LF
3 - Phillips, 2B
4 - Griffey, RF Qualified Cleanup Hitter
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Patterson, CF
7 - Encarnacion, 3B
8 - Bako, C

Two many left handed hitters who struggle and no threats on the bench.

cincrazy
04-09-2008, 07:12 AM
I think Steel's correct. Team LOB is different from the sum of the individual LOBs. It's the team LOB (the number ending innings) that counts.

Folks on this site are fixated on walks. The Reds have some good walkers. But they don't have enough good hitters. There's not one true top hitter on the team. Dunn is a top power hitter. Phillips hits for power for a second baseman. But the Reds lack the consistent .290 - .310 middle of the order hitters who knock in runs consistently.

Griffey, even at this stage, is the closest the Reds come to a top hitter. He certainly was one earlier in his career, but now the Reds should be relying on others.

I think that's why the Reds have these stretches when they don't score and leave guys on. They don't have enough really good hitters.

Agreed with all of this... to an extent. We do have ONE consistent .290-.310 hitter who can knock in runs consistently, and his name is Jay Bruce, and he's in Louisville :thumbup:

Wheelhouse
04-09-2008, 08:08 AM
I think Steel's correct. Team LOB is different from the sum of the individual LOBs. It's the team LOB (the number ending innings) that counts.

Folks on this site are fixated on walks. The Reds have some good walkers. But they don't have enough good hitters. There's not one true top hitter on the team. Dunn is a top power hitter. Phillips hits for power for a second baseman. But the Reds lack the consistent .290 - .310 middle of the order hitters who knock in runs consistently.

Griffey, even at this stage, is the closest the Reds come to a top hitter. He certainly was one earlier in his career, but now the Reds should be relying on others.

I think that's why the Reds have these stretches when they don't score and leave guys on. They don't have enough really good hitters.

You make a very good point. It's the flaw in the love of OBP--even though there is some benefit in "not making outs", walks only advance runners one base, and given that the best of OBP guys will still make an out 6 out of 10 times, ONLY walking as one's OBP makes for low run scoring. Hits are still the active ingredient in scoring. So scorn not the hitter with a high BA contact hitter---he's the one the walkers must have to have their walks have any meaning-namely, runs. Adam Dunn, with all of his walks, does need to hit more. And I think he will.
Also, re LOB, I agree what I used was not the common usage. I was just going from the MLB.com boxscores. Sorry for the confusion.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 08:08 AM
I think Steel's correct. Team LOB is different from the sum of the individual LOBs. It's the team LOB (the number ending innings) that counts.

Folks on this site are fixated on walks. The Reds have some good walkers. But they don't have enough good hitters. There's not one true top hitter on the team. Dunn is a top power hitter. Phillips hits for power for a second baseman. But the Reds lack the consistent .290 - .310 middle of the order hitters who knock in runs consistently.

Griffey, even at this stage, is the closest the Reds come to a top hitter. He certainly was one earlier in his career, but now the Reds should be relying on others.

I think that's why the Reds have these stretches when they don't score and leave guys on. They don't have enough really good hitters.

Excellent post. BA/RISP doesn't seem to matter until the team leaves a lot of people on base. Then poor BA/RISP is known as LOB problems.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 08:14 AM
The Reds really, really, really don't have many guys that walk. That is very wrong.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 08:18 AM
Lineup construction is hurting -- namely hitting Edwin Encarnacion behind Adam Dunn. Dunn is getting junkballed, and I'd be shocked if it was for any reason other than the belief that Edwin is a dead-out at the plate right now.

If Dunn isn't seeing pitching because Edwin isn't hitting, that's effectively robbing the middle of the lineup of any productivity.

Time to drop Edwin down in the batting order until he figures out what the hell is wrong with himself (or until A-Gon comes back and Kepp can take Edwin's spot).

I can't see lineup construction as being enough of an issue to basically make Dunn useless over the first 8 games of the season. There hasn't even been enough time in the season for teams to safely assume that Edwin is a dead out. It's only 8 games. I'd rather use 2007 as my baseline for assessing a player than use 8 games in 2008.

Sometimes the Dunn apologists take it to a new level on this board. He has gotten off to a slow start. So has Edwin. They should snap out of it sooner or later, as their track records say they should. If Dunn pops 2 HRs tonight, his numbers will look fine and this point will be moot.

In addition, if you are right and Dunn is being "junkballed" and that is the cause of his 8 game slump then I would fully expect every team to pitch him the same exact way for 154 more games no matter who hits behind him. If Dunn cannot hit "junk" I would be telling my pitchers to give him a heaping serving every time he is up.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 08:19 AM
The Reds really, really, really don't have many guys that walk. That is very wrong.

If you hit .230 as a team, I'm not sure if walks are going to cut it.

Far East
04-09-2008, 08:42 AM
1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Dunn, LF
3 - Griffey, RF
4 - Phillips, 2B
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Patterson, CF
7 - Encarnacion, 3B
8 - Bako, C

What am I missing?

Missing -- a pitcher between Encarnacion and Bako, ala LaRussa and Ned Yost. Tuesday night, the Brewers' 8th spot had at least two sac bunts, and their 9th spot was on base almost every time to transition into the top of their order. Of course the Reds could use a #9 hitter like Kendall, who is currently leading the league

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 09:08 AM
If you hit .230 as a team, I'm not sure if walks are going to cut it.

If the Reds were a good BB team, then that .230 AVG would be a minor consideration; take the .230 AVG and combine it with few walks, and you've got a rolling disaster.

Right now, sad as it is, Dunn and Keppinger are the only parts of the offense that are doing anything. Dunn is walking, and Keppinger's hitting, but that's it.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 09:17 AM
If the Reds were a good BB team, then that .230 AVG would be a minor consideration; take the .230 AVG and combine it with few walks, and you've got a rolling disaster.

Right now, sad as it is, Dunn and Keppinger are the only parts of the offense that are doing anything. Dunn is walking, and Keppinger's hitting, but that's it.

The Reds are actually 2nd in the NL in walks right now with 37. One behind St. Louis.

Pretty amazing when you consider the first base combo of Hatteberg/Votto have one walk between them.

BRM
04-09-2008, 09:19 AM
One of the big reasons the Reds aren't scoring runs is because of their anemic team slugging of .382.

Hoosier Red
04-09-2008, 09:21 AM
If the Reds were a good BB team, then that .230 AVG would be a minor consideration; take the .230 AVG and combine it with few walks, and you've got a rolling disaster.

Right now, sad as it is, Dunn and Keppinger are the only parts of the offense that are doing anything. Dunn is walking, and Keppinger's hitting, but that's it.


Except the Reds are 2nd in MLB in walks so far this season.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 09:23 AM
Walks are the only thing right now keeping this offense from being completely horrendous. The current OBP isn't great, but it's not terrible at this point either.

What's holding the offense back at the moment is the lack of slugging. The Reds are slugging only .382 so far this season; they need to be up around the .440 mark (they slugged .436 in 2007). The walks have helped the Reds get guys on base, but the lack of slugging is preventing many of those guys from scoring. OBP puts guys on base; SLG moves baserunners along. With some OBP and no SLG, the Reds really have been clogging the bases early this season.

Keep getting guys on base via any means possible (including walks), boost the SLG by 50 points, and the bases will unclog themselves and the runs will start to accumulate.

jojo
04-09-2008, 09:34 AM
After roughly a week, the Reds are in 4th place and 2.5 games back despite Patterson holding his own and the young arms doing better than we shouldve hoped.

Yet there is reason to be optimistic.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 09:35 AM
I don't know what the actual numbers are, but putting 3 of your best OBP guys 5th, 6th,and 7th will tend to result in LOB. The little SLG we've got right now isn't being maximized.

blumj
04-09-2008, 09:44 AM
Well, it's a sample of 8 games. Anything can and does happen over 8 games. Like, AJ Pierzynski could lead MLB in OPS, or the Baltimore Orioles could have the best record, and the Detroit Tigers could have the worst.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 09:48 AM
The Reds are actually 2nd in the NL in walks right now with 37. One behind St. Louis.

Pretty amazing when you consider the first base combo of Hatteberg/Votto have one walk between them.

My mistake. I'm guessing then that the walks are coming from two sources, Dunn and EdE.

puca
04-09-2008, 09:49 AM
I also wonder whether 'splitting up the lefties' leaves the Reds in a situation where, when the get runners on base, they don't have the best batter/pitcher matchup. Last night the lefties had great success against Suppan. The righties, not so much. Net result...a lot of runners left on base.

Bottom line is once 5-7 start slugging they will start scoring runs.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 09:52 AM
main issue seems to be that they are 13th in the league in SLG%.

BRM
04-09-2008, 09:56 AM
My mistake. I'm guessing then that the walks are coming from two sources, Dunn and EdE.

18 of the team's 37 walks have come from those two players.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 09:59 AM
My mistake. I'm guessing then that the walks are coming from two sources, Dunn and EdE.

They both have 9, Griff 6, Bako 4, Kepp 3, 6 guys with 1 a piece.

Dunn and EE have been on base 12 and 11 times, respectively. They've scored 3 total runs. That ain't too good.

EE's only run scored came on his GWHR.

Heath
04-09-2008, 09:59 AM
I think Corey Patterson has shown a little more patience at the plate than past years, and it's translated into decent success. But, a career .298 OBP 'er will always be a .298 OBP'er, IMO.

I think Dusty thinks that every team he manages is the '77 Dodgers. Hitt'em out of the park.

I would agree that Lineup Constuction. I mean, Monday was get-away day and all, but Juan Castro in the 2 hole is abysmal.

BRM
04-09-2008, 10:01 AM
They both have 9, Griff 6, Bako 4, Kepp 3, 6 guys with 1 a piece.

Dunn and EE have been on base 12 and 11 times, respectively. They've scored 3 total runs. That ain't too good.

EE's only run scored came on his GWHR.

Like RMR said, when your best on-base guys are hitting 5-7 they probably aren't going to score all that much.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 10:03 AM
Like RMR said, when your best on-base guys are hitting 5-7 they probably aren't going to score all that much.

True, but I'd like to know who this good on-base guy hitting in the 7 hole is. So far, that's been a dead spot in the lineup with Votto and Hatteberg's struggles.

BRM
04-09-2008, 10:04 AM
True, but I'd like to know who this good on-base guy hitting in the 7 hole is. So far, that's been a dead spot in the lineup with Votto and Hatteberg's struggles.

It's a slump. Those two are both pretty good OBP guys when they are going right.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 10:05 AM
a different batting order would help but at this point EE having a high walk total is likely to do with small sample, with Dunn it is rather clear he is being pitched around. Brewers gave Dunn nothing to swing at in his last 3 ABs last night. Dusty needs to figure out either a)how to get them to pitch to Dunn(not real likely) or b)how to take better advantage of it when they don't.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 10:10 AM
OBP by lineup position thus far:

1st: .297
2nd: .400
3rd: .412
4th: .294
5th: .424
6th: .333
7th: .194
8th: .433
9th: .148

If I bust out the red pen, I'm circling #1, #4, and #7. Ain't much can be done about #9 as an NL team, obviously.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 10:17 AM
OBP by lineup position thus far:

1st: .297
2nd: .400
3rd: .412
4th: .294
5th: .424
6th: .333
7th: .194
8th: .433
9th: .148

If I bust out the red pen, I'm circling #1, #4, and #7. Ain't much can be done about #9 as an NL team, obviously.

Interesting. Here's OPS by batting order:
1st: .903
2nd: 1.025
3rd: .912
4th: .779
5th: .598
6th: .542
7th: .387
8th: .856
9th: .190

As I'm typing these out, I'm realizing it's still kinda absurd that we're doing this only 8 games into the season.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 10:17 AM
I still think OB is a problem--currently the Reds are a middle of the pack OB team in the MLB, despite the walks. Even with a hits-correction to the OB, you're not likely to see either Dunn or EdE (especially EdE) keep up his BB rate. I do think OB will be a problem, and I've been saying power's been a problem for a long time.

I don't think it's as simple as: "as soon as they start hitting."

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 10:20 AM
As I'm typing these out, I'm realizing it's still kinda absurd that we're doing this only 8 games into the season.

You're probably right about looking at numbers this early.

However, I think there are some global concerns related to power and traditional OB skills.

This team needs some offensive help. The good thing is that offense is still the most easily obtainable commodity (probably easier than defense even).

BRM
04-09-2008, 10:23 AM
As I'm typing these out, I'm realizing it's still kinda absurd that we're doing this only 8 games into the season.

It's the RedsZone way. ;)

That said, I think it's been obvious for awhile that this team was going to need a RH bat or two to help the offense.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 10:29 AM
You're probably right about looking at numbers this early.

However, I think there are some global concerns related to power and traditional OB skills.

This team needs some offensive help. The good thing is that offense is still the most easily obtainable commodity (probably easier than defense even).

Agreed. Watching this team on offense, the lineup almost has a church league softball feel to it. As in, there are a couple "ringers" out there that can hurt you, but you're very rarely going to get a big inning out of them because they can't string a bunch of positive results back-to-back-to-back.

RedlegJake
04-09-2008, 10:30 AM
The Reds do need that RH bat. BP is hitting and is what he is. The guy, who many, many Zoners pointed out as crucial to the offense this year is EE. He draws walks, has power and hits. Perfect. He just needs to get going. I remember several posters who said this winter that this offense would go as far as EE did. That's what we're seeing, too. On the RH side there really is no one else.

BRM
04-09-2008, 10:33 AM
I like the softball analogy. That seems like an appropriate comp.

Kc61
04-09-2008, 10:38 AM
Reds are second in the league in walks, yet 10th in runs and 12th in OPS.

You can't win with walks alone. Time for some hitting.

Patterson, Keppinger, Griffey and Bako on occasion seem to be hitting ok. It's the rest of the guys.

dabvu2498
04-09-2008, 10:41 AM
I like the softball analogy. That seems like an appropriate comp.

Yeah, maybe.

It's still only April 9.

BRM
04-09-2008, 10:43 AM
Yeah, maybe.

It's still only April 9.

I meant it's an appropriate comp for how they've looked to this point.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 10:47 AM
Reds are second in the league in walks, yet 10th in runs and 12th in OPS.

You can't win with walks alone. Time for some hitting.

Patterson, Keppinger, Griffey and Bako on occasion seem to be hitting ok. It's the rest of the guys.

Hyperbole much? Or maybe a lack of understanding how an offense works?

I've never seen anybody ever claim that you can score runs, or "win" as you phrase it, with walks alone.

Walks supplement an offense by creating baserunners and saving outs. Singles, doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases, etc. also supplement an offense by saving outs and/or creating/advancing baserunners.

Eliminate half the walks from the Reds' offense thus far and it's quite possible they're sitting on 2-6 rather than 4-4.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 10:49 AM
Interesting. Here's OPS by batting order:
1st: .903
2nd: 1.025
3rd: .912
4th: .779
5th: .598
6th: .542
7th: .387
8th: .856
9th: .190

As I'm typing these out, I'm realizing it's still kinda absurd that we're doing this only 8 games into the season.

Compare the OBP by spot with the SLG by spot, and what you'll see is only three spots (#2, #3, and #8) in the lineup who are immune from deficiencies in both aspects.

Six of the nine lineup spots are suffering from either making too many outs or not slugging enough. That's bad, real bad.

Far East
04-09-2008, 10:52 AM
Interesting. Here's OPS by batting order:
1st: .903
2nd: 1.025
3rd: .912
4th: .779
5th: .598
6th: .542
7th: .387
8th: .856
9th: .190

If Ned Yost ran the Reds, he might do:

1st: .903
2nd: 1.025
3rd: .912
4th: .779
5th: .598
6th: .542
7th: .387
P: .190
C: .856

That puts the best 4 (.856, .903, 1.025, .912) in succession.

Too simple to work?

Kc61
04-09-2008, 10:57 AM
Hyperbole much? Or maybe a lack of understanding how an offense works?

I've never seen anybody ever claim that you can score runs, or "win" as you phrase it, with walks alone.

Walks supplement an offense by creating baserunners and saving outs. Singles, doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases, etc. also supplement an offense by saving outs and/or creating/advancing baserunners.

Eliminate half the walks from the Reds' offense thus far and it's quite possible they're sitting on 2-6 rather than 4-4.

Not against walks. I agree that they "supplement" an offense. Well put.

Still, I would like to see the Reds upgrade the hitters in this lineup. For this reason, I think Jay Bruce will be a big plus for the team eventually. I would like to see a right handed hitter added too. (Todd Frazier in A ball would probably help right now if he had a position.)

The lineup/order could be improved, sure, but the bottom line is that the Reds have some walkers and some power guys. I'd like to see a couple more pure hitters. Right now, just would like to see the bats get going a little.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 11:13 AM
I don't think EdE has much power actually. Pretty middling power at best.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 11:14 AM
Not against walks. I agree that they "supplement" an offense. Well put.

Still, I would like to see the Reds upgrade the hitters in this lineup. For this reason, I think Jay Bruce will be a big plus for the team eventually. I would like to see a right handed hitter added too. (Todd Frazier in A ball would probably help right now if he had a position.)

The lineup/order could be improved, sure, but the bottom line is that the Reds have some walkers and some power guys. I'd like to see a couple more pure hitters. Right now, just would like to see the bats get going a little.

Who do you want to replace and with whom? I'd love better hitters too, but outside of CF (where the replacement is obvious and yet where we've gotten decent production) and C (where, frankly, there are no upgrades available short of moving some serious talent), I just don't see it.

This team has the pieces to score plenty of runs. They just need to be used in the right combination and to come through. Tweak the lineup to put the OBP ahead of the SLG, let Votto get regular at bats, and it'll come around.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 11:25 AM
Not against walks. I agree that they "supplement" an offense. Well put.

Still, I would like to see the Reds upgrade the hitters in this lineup. For this reason, I think Jay Bruce will be a big plus for the team eventually. I would like to see a right handed hitter added too. (Todd Frazier in A ball would probably help right now if he had a position.)

The lineup/order could be improved, sure, but the bottom line is that the Reds have some walkers and some power guys. I'd like to see a couple more pure hitters. Right now, just would like to see the bats get going a little.

Other than promoting Bruce and sending him out to CF rather than Patterson, what you're asking for is much easier said than done. The only position that could possibly be upgraded at this point might be catcher, but the only way the Reds are acquiring a decent hitting catcher is if they give up some serious talent.

I just don't see that happening.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 11:45 AM
The Reds current issues go much deeper than lineup construction. That just happens to be a convenient excuse right now. Bottom line is that they just aren't hitting.

They will most likely start to hit better. I would bet money on that even if Dunn was hitting 9th, Patterson was hitting 3rd and the pitcher was leading off.

If these guys are that affected by where they hit in the lineup than this team has much deeper issues.

Nugget
04-09-2008, 12:08 PM
This is neither a lineup or a player depth issue. Its an issue that the current players are not hitting to their potential or in some cases even half their potential. There will definitely be times when a player doesn't have a hot hand. He has to deal with that and some of them aren't. These guys are professional ball players - its not the lineup.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 12:11 PM
This team has the pieces to score plenty of runs. They just need to be used in the right combination and to come through. Tweak the lineup to put the OBP ahead of the SLG, let Votto get regular at bats, and it'll come around.

I disagree. I think this team has next to no power. And the OB is mostly hit-contingent.

I'd look for some power at 1B--it's where you'll find it relatively cheap. I'd trade Bailey to get it.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 12:19 PM
The Reds current issues go much deeper than lineup construction. That just happens to be a convenient excuse right now. Bottom line is that they just aren't hitting.

The reality is that there doesn't have to be a "bottom line". No reason to pretend like it's black and white.

You're 100% right, simple performance is the #1 factor and nobody is denying that. But the odd lineup construction is also hurting our overall production. It's not an excuse, getting power at the top of your lineup and good OBP in the 5th and 6th spots doesn't lead to scoring runs. We aren't taking very good advantage of the little production, particularly in regards to the type (OBP vs SLG) we're actually getting.

More generally speaking, when you have a wide dispersion of production (big spikes and valleys by player), lineup order becomes all the more relevant. Give me 9 .800 OPS guys and it doesn't matter who hits where. But give me 3 .900 OPS guys, 3 .700, and 3 .500, and there are some lineup combinations that will score many fewer runs than others. Long term, this is a particular problem with the Phillips cleaning up versus righties situation, but for now, you're right, we just need Dunn's batted balls to fall in and EE to start putting more balls in play. EE's walks are great, but his Ks are alarming in so far as they represent a lack of contact.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 12:24 PM
EE's walks are great, but his Ks are alarming in so far as they represent a lack of contact.Phillips leads the team in Ks.

Kc61
04-09-2008, 12:31 PM
Who do you want to replace and with whom? I'd love better hitters too, but outside of CF (where the replacement is obvious and yet where we've gotten decent production) and C (where, frankly, there are no upgrades available short of moving some serious talent), I just don't see it.

This team has the pieces to score plenty of runs. They just need to be used in the right combination and to come through. Tweak the lineup to put the OBP ahead of the SLG, let Votto get regular at bats, and it'll come around.

Centerfield is fine, if you ask me. I like Patterson's defense and think it will help a lot. He hits too, just not an OBP guy, should probably hit lower in the order.

Catcher is an issue for most clubs, not that worried about it.

The Reds need big production from either first base, third base or both. These are power positions where the Reds don't get power. To me this is the biggest problem with the starting lineup.

I like Votto, I think he'll work out, at least as a platoon.

They need power production from third base. They need a righty power platoon at first base. They also need Dunn to get going.

Caveat Emperor
04-09-2008, 12:31 PM
I disagree. I think this team has next to no power. And the OB is mostly hit-contingent.

It's about half and half. Phillips, Patterson & Bako are clear examples of BA-driven OBP.

I think the jury is still out on a few players. If Votto starts walking and Edwin just starts replicating baseline numbers (~.270 hitting with some XB power), the offense should be at least passable.

Now, if Edwin doesn't pick it up at the plate and Votto doesn't start showing his patient eye, the team is really gonna be up against it.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 12:33 PM
Phillips, Patterson & Bako are clear examples of BA-driven OBP. Keppinger as well, it is just that he is a better BA hitter than the above.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 12:33 PM
It's about half and half. Phillips, Patterson & Bako are clear examples of BA-driven OBP.

I think the jury is still out on a few players. If Votto starts walking and Edwin just starts replicating baseline numbers (~.270 hitting with some XB power), the offense should be at least passable.

Now, if Edwin doesn't pick it up at the plate and Votto doesn't start showing his patient eye, the team is really gonna be up against it.

A big problem is pinning the fortunes of this offense on Votto and Edwin both coming through.

They need a power transfusion.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 12:34 PM
Keppinger as well, it is just that he is a better BA hitter than the above.

And to a lesser extent, Griffey.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 12:39 PM
For EE the writing is already on the wall. I'd say the odds strongly favor him being a platoon player a month from now with Gonzo at SS and Keppinger the everyday 3b.

PuffyPig
04-09-2008, 12:40 PM
In the NL, CIncy is 10th in runs scored, 12th in OPS. It would appear that we are getting a reasonable amount of runs out of our production.

We are 9th in OBA, based largely on being 2nd in walks.

Our power is down. It will come back.

M2
04-09-2008, 12:40 PM
Until Encarnacion makes opposing pitchers suffer a bit, Dunn's going to get nothing to hit. It gets back to why hitting Dunn lower in the lineup is such a stupid idea. It effectively takes the bat out of his hands.

A lineup adjustment needs to be made.

On a separate note, I'm mind-boggled that this thread got started based on a complete misunderstanding of what LOB is. That's Baseball 101 stuff.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 12:45 PM
Phillips leads the team in Ks.

Ks themselves aren't a problem if you're simply exchanging weak contact for no contact. Ks as an indicator of a larger problem making contact is an issue. Sure, Phillips is striking out a lot, but he's also got 4 extra base hit and is generally striking the ball well when he makes contact. In fact, so long as he's batting with Junior on base ahead of him, I'd rather see a strikeout than a weak grounder.

Edwin has the follow PA outcomes:

33 PA
17 BIP (52%)
--9 GB (53%)
--6 FB (35%)
--2 LD (12%)
9 BB (27%)
7 SO (21%)

First, small sample size, small sample size, small sample size. However, the scouting assessment seems to back up these numbers. He's not putting the ball in play very much and when he does put it in play, he's not hitting the ball well. Now, presumably those numbers will regress to the mean over the next 100 PA or so. But the lack of line drives coupled with the high K rate at minimum raises suspicion.

Dunn's numbers are frightenly similar. His GB rate is quite unusual for him, but at least we've seen that those GB are well hit GB that have found gloves rather than him rolling over on the ball, as we've seen from EE.

32 PA
17 BIP
--10 GB
--5 FB
--2 LD
9 BB
6 SO

By comparison, here's Phillips. He's traded those walks for line drives (not literally), which results in greater production because those LD drive SLG. The concern with Phillips is that he won't maintain that 29% LD rate -- he won't -- and that they'll be replaced with less valuable BIP or even more Ks, with a smattering of BB thrown in.

34 PA
22 BIP
--9 GB
--8 FB
--7 LD
1 BB
9 SO

When guys like Dunn and EE slump, they lose SLG. When guys like BP and CPat slump, they lose OBP and SLG.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 12:51 PM
In the NL, CIncy is 10th in runs scored, 12th in OPS. It would appear that we are getting a reasonable amount of runs out of our production.

We are 9th in OBA, based largely on being 2nd in walks.

Our power is down. It will come back.

From Dunn it will come back. But he will get nothing to hit. Even if Keppinger were hitting behind him. Pitchers fear power, not base hits.

KronoRed
04-09-2008, 12:56 PM
Swap JR and Dunn is the only lineup change I'd make at this point.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 12:57 PM
Until Encarnacion makes opposing pitchers suffer a bit, Dunn's going to get nothing to hit. It gets back to why hitting Dunn lower in the lineup is such a stupid idea. It effectively takes the bat out of his hands.

A lineup adjustment needs to be made.

What blows my mind with all the above is the fact that Dusty Baker managed Barry Bonds for 10 seasons. You'd think after having an elite power hitter like Bonds in his lineup every day for so long that Baker would realize where an elite power hitter like Dunn should hit, but apparently he never learned.

KronoRed
04-09-2008, 12:59 PM
Bonds was a .300 hitter, that's what it comes down to.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 12:59 PM
What blows my mind with all the above is the fact that Dusty Baker managed Barry Bonds for 10 seasons. You'd think after having an elite power hitter like Bonds in his lineup every day for so long that Baker would realize where an elite power hitter like Dunn should hit, but apparently he never learned.

That is odd, since most people on here believe Dunn should be hitting 2nd.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 01:00 PM
That is odd, since most people on here believe Dunn should be hitting 2nd.

Dunn should never hit anywhere but 4th. Ever.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 01:03 PM
Dunn should never hit anywhere but 4th. Ever.

Bonds hit 3rd in his SF heyday, IIRC.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 01:04 PM
Bonds hit 3rd in his SF heyday, IIRC.

Dunn's different from Bonds. And I don't see Jeff Kent or Matt Williams anywhere, do you?

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 01:05 PM
Dunn's different from Bonds. And I don't see Jeff Kent anywhere, do you?

I was just noting that:

Many on here love to point to Dunn's career splits in the 2 hole

Cyclone said that Baker should be pulling from his days in SF regarding where Bonds was in the order (3rd)

You think 4th.

And each spot is "quite obvious" where Dunn should be.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 01:05 PM
That is odd, since most people on here believe Dunn should be hitting 2nd.

If the Reds had two or three reliable .360+ OBP guys to bat ahead of Dunn, sure. But if you keep him 3rd or 4th just to get a guy like Alex Gonzalez or Corey Patterson at bats ahead of him, what are you accomplishing? I'd rather Dunn 2nd than giving top of the lineup at bats to guys with .320 OBPs.

Ideally, Dunn at 4 makes a lot of sense because at the start of the game he's either coming up with men on base or he's leading off the 2nd.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 01:07 PM
If the Reds had two or three reliable .360+ OBP guys to bat ahead of Dunn, sure. But if you keep him 3rd or 4th just to get a guy like Alex Gonzalez or Corey Patterson at bats ahead of him, what are you accomplishing?

I'm not disagreeing with that.

Do I think Dusty can do a better job with the lineups? Sure.

Do I think that it is a valid excuse for the offense's first 8 games? Nope.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 01:09 PM
Do I think that it is a valid excuse for the offense's first 8 games? Nope.

Again, why does there have to be just one factor? Nobody is saying that a better lineup would fix things given the same level of production.

It's not "the excuse", simply a part of the explanation, albeit a small part. That doesn't make it a non-issue. We should be trying to maximize run scoring in every way. You don't stop putting air in your tires just because your transmission is going... You fix 'em both.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 01:17 PM
Again, why does there have to be just one factor? It's not "the excuse", it's simply a part of the explanation, albeit a small one -- that doesn't make it not an issue.

The thread is about the offense's struggles.

I think that any team who collectively hits .232 and slugs .382 is going to have issues in the run scoring department no matter how the lineup is structured.

Now when it comes to lineup "factors" I guess there is 2 ways to look at it:

1) The lineup is producing, but is structured so that the guys hitting doubles and HRs are hitting them when no one is on base, whether it be the fault of the lineup or the timing of the hits.

2) The lineup is not producing because of the structure, i.e. Dunn not seeing anything because of lack of protection from Edwin.

If the issue is #1, then maybe you have a point. But the team isn't hitting at all, so I would have a difficult time buying into that.

If the issue is #2, then you might also have a point but it is way too early to think that pitchers now consider Edwin as being Castro-like. 8 games is nowhere enough time, especially when Edwin has a decent to good track record.

Cyclone792
04-09-2008, 01:18 PM
I was just noting that:

Many on here love to point to Dunn's career splits in the 2 hole

Cyclone said that Baker should be pulling from his days in SF regarding where Bonds was in the order (3rd)

You think 4th.

And each spot is "quite obvious" where Dunn should be.

Bonds was in the 3-hole 35.5 percent of his PAs, cleanup 28.5 percent. Nearly two-thirds of his PAs were 3rd or 4th.

He hit 5th only 15 percent of the time.

As for Dunn, I'd rather he hit anywhere from 2-4 rather than 5.

M2
04-09-2008, 01:23 PM
Dunn could hit anywhere from 1-4. I've got no real preference. What he shouldn't be doing is hitting lower than 4.

I wonder if Dusty sees too much similarity between Bonds and Dunn. You could put Bonds anywhere and he'd produce, including the 5 spot. Dunn will, over time, produce power in that slot, but he'd be at least an order of magnitude better hitting higher in the lineup where pitchers would be a whole lot less eager to walk him. He gets out of sync when he's on a garbage diet at the plate. He's not a natural hitter. A higher volume of pitches in the strikezone does wonders for him.

I actually do see a Jeff Kent on the Reds. He goes by the name of Brandon Phillips. Granted he's not Kent in his prime (neither was Kent at Phillips' age), but he's more than capable of supplying power and hits to plate the runners on base in front of him. Getting on base in front of that guy is a pretty solid plan for scoring runs.

Get Dunn up somewhere in front of Jr. and Phillips and you've got a run scoring plan. IMO, flip-flopping their current order would be a solid idea. I think each guy would do more damage in that arrangement.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 01:26 PM
The thread is about the offense's struggles.

I think that any team who collectively hits .232 and slugs .382 is going to have issues in the run scoring department no matter how the lineup is structured.

Now when it comes to lineup "factors" I guess there is 2 ways to look at it:

1) The lineup is producing, but is structured so that the guys hitting doubles and HRs are hitting them when no one is on base, whether it be the fault of the lineup or the timing of the hits.

2) The lineup is not producing because of the structure, i.e. Dunn not seeing anything because of lack of protection from Edwin.

If the issue is #1, then maybe you have a point. But the team isn't hitting at all, so I would have a difficult time buying into that.

If the issue is #2, then you might also have a point but it is way too early to think that pitchers now consider Edwin as being Castro-like. 8 games is nowhere enough time, especially when Edwin has a decent to good track record.

I think we're violent agreement. The lineup is not producing very much, period. However, even given the level of production we are receiving, we aren't minimizing our run scoring due to #1. And if and when Dunn & EE com around, #1 will continue to be an issue -- and even more pronounced if Keppinger, Junior, and/or Phillips slump at all.

I think #2 is among the most overrated issues in baseball. Protection has never been shown to have a real effect -- it's what you do with the pitches you get.

flyer85
04-09-2008, 01:29 PM
Protection has never been shown to have a real effect there are players who will be pitched around in certain situations ... no matter who is hitting behind them. It is the managers job to maximize the potential pain to the opponent for pitching around someone to get to the next player.

edabbs44
04-09-2008, 01:29 PM
Bonds was in the 3-hole 35.5 percent of his PAs, cleanup 28.5 percent. Nearly two-thirds of his PAs were 3rd or 4th.

He hit 5th only 15 percent of the time.

As for Dunn, I'd rather he hit anywhere from 2-4 rather than 5.

Those numbers are vaild for Bonds while in SF under Baker?

15fan
04-09-2008, 01:30 PM
Maybe the offense is struggling.

Or maybe facing Brandon Webb (2nd in 2007 NL Cy Young vote) and Cole Hamels (T-6th in 2007 NL Cy Young vote) in the first week of the season has something to do with the depressed offensive numbers.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 01:33 PM
Dunn could hit anywhere from 1-4. I've got no real preference. What he shouldn't be doing is hitting lower than 4.

I wonder if Dusty sees too much similarity between Bonds and Dunn. You could put Bonds anywhere and he'd produce, including the 5 spot. Dunn will, over time, produce power in that slot, but he'd be at least an order of magnitude better hitting higher in the lineup where pitchers would be a whole lot less eager to walk him. He gets out of sync when he's on a garbage diet at the plate. He's not a natural hitter. A higher volume of pitches in the strikezone does wonders for him.

I actually do see a Jeff Kent on the Reds. He goes by the name of Brandon Phillips. Granted he's not Kent in his prime (neither was Kent at Phillips' age), but he's more than capable of supplying power and hits to plate the runners on base in front of him. Getting on base in front of that guy is a pretty solid plan for scoring runs.

Get Dunn up somewhere in front of Jr. and Phillips and you've got a run scoring plan. IMO, flip-flopping their current order would be a solid idea. I think each guy would do more damage in that arrangement.

Kent circa SF was my comp. And two players could not be more distinct offensively than Kent in SF vs. Phillips now.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 01:36 PM
Maybe the offense is struggling.

Or maybe facing Brandon Webb (2nd in 2007 NL Cy Young vote) and Cole Hamels (T-6th in 2007 NL Cy Young vote) in the first week of the season has something to do with the depressed offensive numbers.

It might have something to do with it. There are issues, though--seeing how opposing pitchers attack the lineup has demonstrated that.

M2
04-09-2008, 01:53 PM
Protection has never been shown to have a real effect -- it's what you do with the pitches you get.

Agreed, though Dunn's a peculiar player, both in what he does and how other teams go after him. He needs more good pitches than he gets when you hit him lower in the lineup.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 01:59 PM
Agreed, though a peculiar player, both in what he does and how other teams go after him. He needs more good pitches than he gets when you hit him lower in the lineup.

I agree, particularly when a specific player is slumping and having trouble hitting offspeed stuff, a move up the order is likely to get him more fastballs and hopefully get him going.

I would love to see Keppinger and EE at the top of the order, both to help jump start EE's bat by exposing him to more fastballs, but also to take advantage of the walks he's able to collect in the meantime. But that would break up the oh-so-important L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R order and remove Patterson, so there's no hope. Besides, I'm sure Dusty would tell us that he needs EE (aka, third baseman) to be an "RBI guy".

M2
04-09-2008, 02:13 PM
Kent circa SF was my comp. And two players could not be more distinct offensively than Kent in SF vs. Phillips now.

I see a ton of similarity. Obviously Kent's best seasons are going to look better because Phillips is just entering what should be his prime.

Kent at age 29 moved from being a guy whose annual BB totals moved from the 20s and 30s to the 40s and 50s (with a few peaks season above that line), but with the bat Kent was a guy who'd hit .290 with roughly 28 HRs. He was a better doubles hitter than Phillips has been to date, but I expect Phillips will become a better doubles hitter than he's been to date.

From the perspective of what can he do with ducks on the pond, Phillips can be a reasonable facsimile of the .290/28/110 guy Kent was at his height. Last year he was .288/30/94. You'll have to forgive me, but I don't see a lot of distinction there.

I'm not arguing that Kent wasn't a better hitter in his prime. He was, but Phillips can do a lot of the things that made Kent stand out.

Highlifeman21
04-09-2008, 02:28 PM
Phillips leads the team in Ks.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Phillips K's more than Dunn this year.

bucksfan2
04-09-2008, 02:40 PM
I agree, particularly when a specific player is slumping and having trouble hitting offspeed stuff, a move up the order is likely to get him more fastballs and hopefully get him going.

I would love to see Keppinger and EE at the top of the order, both to help jump start EE's bat by exposing him to more fastballs, but also to take advantage of the walks he's able to collect in the meantime. But that would break up the oh-so-important L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R order and remove Patterson, so there's no hope. Besides, I'm sure Dusty would tell us that he needs EE (aka, third baseman) to be an "RBI guy".

RMR I am curious as to why you say protection has never shown any real effect yet if EE hit earlier in the lineup he would see more fastballs. Wouldn't that be because of protection?

I agree with the L-R-L-R order that managers like to throw up there. I think it is one of the most overused theories in the game. If you can hit, you can hit. IMO this is one aspect that managers in today's game over think.

KronoRed
04-09-2008, 02:43 PM
It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Phillips K's more than Dunn this year.

If so I bet we barely hear a whisper about it.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 02:47 PM
RMR I am curious as to why you say protection has never shown any real effect yet if EE hit earlier in the lineup he would see more fastballs. Wouldn't that be because of protection?

Seeing more fastballs and production are not equivilent things. Different players have different strengths and weaknesses. As of right now, EE seems to be struggling with pitch recognition and thus seeing more fastballs is a specific solution to a specific problem which hopefully will lead to more production.

I stated the point about protection leading to greater production more generally because a number of studies attempting to measure the effect could not find one. Generally speaking, hitters hit. But there are always specific circumstances which go against the general rule. I posit that, as of today, EE would benefit from being moved up in the lineup. Long term, I'm not sure it has much of an effect.

Falls City Beer
04-09-2008, 02:57 PM
I see a ton of similarity. Obviously Kent's best seasons are going to look better because Phillips is just entering what should be his prime.

Kent at age 29 moved from being a guy whose annual BB totals moved from the 20s and 30s to the 40s and 50s (with a few peaks season above that line), but with the bat Kent was a guy who'd hit .290 with roughly 28 HRs. He was a better doubles hitter than Phillips has been to date, but I expect Phillips will become a better doubles hitter than he's been to date.

From the perspective of what can he do with ducks on the pond, Phillips can be a reasonable facsimile of the .290/28/110 guy Kent was at his height. Last year he was .288/30/94. You'll have to forgive me, but I don't see a lot of distinction there.

I'm not arguing that Kent wasn't a better hitter in his prime. He was, but Phillips can do a lot of the things that made Kent stand out.

To me Kent is to Phillips as Dunn is to, say, Jose Guillen. I just don't see Phillips putting up a .400 + OBP anytime soon. Kent is a big guy; Phillips by comparison is diminutive and wiry, with incidental pop. Kent hit in a huge park; Phillips in the second smallest park in the bigs.

I like Phillips because he's an all-around fairly dynamic player--maybe he will be as good as Kent overall someday--but I think they're very different hitters.

M2
04-09-2008, 03:30 PM
I just don't see Phillips putting up a .400 + OBP anytime soon.

Kent only put up one 400+ OB. The closest he got other than that was .385 with L.A. in 2006. His second-best OB in his Giants years was .369. It's not like he was some amazing OB talent. His calling card was a .500+ SLG.

As for size, Kent's two inches taller, but a lot of his muscle mass was a chemical creation (IMO).

Heath
04-09-2008, 03:46 PM
While it's only been a week and it's not been a bad start, at somepoint, even Dusty has to realize that he'll need some lineup juggling.

IMO, I think the Reds best lead-off guy is sitting in Louisville.

Highlifeman21
04-09-2008, 03:51 PM
While it's only been a week and it's not been a bad start, at somepoint, even Dusty has to realize that he'll need some lineup juggling.

IMO, I think the Reds best lead-off guy is sitting in Louisville.

But is Bruce a leadoff hitter?

Of all the organizational options, Keppinger or Votto seem to be better suited to leadoff than Bruce.

M2
04-09-2008, 05:50 PM
While it's only been a week and it's not been a bad start, at somepoint, even Dusty has to realize that he'll need some lineup juggling.

IMO, I think the Reds best lead-off guy is sitting in Louisville.

Jerry Hairston? Jolbert Cabrera?

To be fair, Jay Bruce so far has been sub-Corey Patterson in terms of performance - .211 OB, .474 SLG.

That said, I agree the lineup will require juggling. I'm sure Baker won't make changes quickly (and there's some wisdom in that). Yet he's probably going to need to find a better combination than what he's got out there, even if he doesn't swap out any players.

Spring~Fields
04-09-2008, 07:30 PM
After reading everyone here I have changed my mind a bit.

1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Phillips, 2B
3 - Encarnacion, 3B
4 - Griffey, RF
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Dunn, LF
7 - Patterson, CF
8 - Valetin, C

I think that the top three here seeing better pitches while the opposition tryís to avoid filling the bases to faces the latter group of the order here will cause the top three to deliver better hitting and give the follow up guys more chances to drive in runs and see better pitches to hit.

I am tired of the same ole logic and seeing the same ole bad results. I would like to see what Encarcion is made of with a solid professional hitter behind him while he gets more AB.

We fans can be too walks oriented at times, the Reds also have to have guys who can actually hit in various situations as well as avoid bad pitching and working a walk. I don't want to see us sacrafice the other six hitters for the sake of our biases for Griffey and Dunn. The Reds need those other six in the lineup to reach their potential too.

It is nothing new for some of the Reds batters to struggle with hitting, yeah they get their walks sometimes. They also feast against poor pitching which pads their stats and that is not spoken to.

I donít want Dusty Baker like his predecessors getting all happy or a reprieve when his bad ideas score or hit against bad pitching, you know the Fogg type pitchers that the Reds hitters feast off of while giving the illusion that they are actually good major league hitters when they are not. Patterson is not a lead off hitter and Phillips is not a cleanup hitter, while Keppinger should continue to hit one or two not sixth.

This thing of always saying that good pitching stops good hitting is getting old, good hitters can hit good pitching, I donít see the Reds having good hitters that hit good pitching, I see them feast off of bad relief and poor starters.

I want to see what Keppinger can do at leadoff, and what Phillips could do when he is required as a batter to use some bat control and utilize his combination of speed, hitting to all fields and power.

I want to see what a healthy Griffey can drive in out of the four hole with a real potential hitter behind him and in front of him, Griffey feasted in his hey day in Seattle that way.
I think that Voto will grow and improve with another hitting threat behind him and in front of him.

I think that mixing for R-L is over kill. Are they major league hitters who can handle the bat or not.

I would like to see a threatening amount of batters also in the lower half of the order, donĎt give the opposing pitcher or defense any breathers.

I certainly have seen enough of Patterson in the leadoff spot. I think that Dunn is what he is and will walk and hit his norms no matter where he is in the order, plus his long slumps. I am not sure of Encarcion because he has always had to scrap for what he gets down in the order. Dunn will come out of it eventually and walk and hit his norms.

I want a catcher who can hit. I also donít think that many teams run or steal in this day, I donít believe that Valetin hurts the Reds that much on defense and he can help with the Spanish speaking pitchers and is a hitting threat.

This lefty-lefty platoon at first is hurting Votto getting enough PA, sure I canít say or prove that Votto will hit, but he isnít going to do well part time, he is not a planned part time player anyway.

Kc61
04-09-2008, 07:40 PM
After reading everyone here I have changed my mind a bit.

1 - Keppinger, SS
2 - Phillips, 2B
3 - Encarnacion, 3B
4 - Griffey, RF
5 - Votto, 1B
6 - Dunn, LF
7 - Patterson, CF
8 - Valetin, C











.


EE third. Right.

Screwball
04-10-2008, 12:07 AM
Ah, it never fails. Put up a 7 page thread griping to no end about the offense, and they score 12.

Quick, somebody tell me they'll only score 2 tomorrow, and that I can count on it.

WVRedsFan
04-10-2008, 12:11 AM
Ah, it never fails. Put up a 7 page thread griping to no end about the offense, and they score 12.

Quick, somebody tell me they'll only score 2 tomorrow, and that I can count on it.


I already did that in the game thread. We're good.

Happy times tomorrow...:party:

Spring~Fields
04-10-2008, 08:59 AM
Ah, it never fails. Put up a 7 page thread griping to no end about the offense, and they score 12.

Quick, somebody tell me they'll only score 2 tomorrow, and that I can count on it.

Ah how right you are.
Write a negative on Dunn and he will go on a hitting machine tear.
I wish that we had stats on that odd phenomena occurring because at a high degree of frequency it seems true and I have seen it over and over especially if I write a negative about them or an individual player. I threw a dig at Fogg, Patterson and Baker above and they had pretty decent nights.

Is that a backward gift?

Is Encarcion about to make some of us look lost and have a break through? I hope so.

Some we just couldn’t help though, Milton, Bowden, Boone, Miley, Narron. :bang:

Spring~Fields
04-12-2008, 10:24 PM
Ah, it never fails. Put up a 7 page thread griping to no end about the offense, and they score 12.

Quick, somebody tell me they'll only score 2 tomorrow, and that I can count on it.

We need to work harder so they can go on a six game win streak.

This offense needs all the help they can get.

Kc61
04-12-2008, 10:45 PM
We need to work harder so they can go on a six game win streak.

This offense needs all the help they can get.

Rome wasn't built in a day. Now that the pitching is improved, I think Krivsky will start to focus more on offense. The team needs it. The Reds have gotten by on home runs at GABP and other cozy ballparks for a few years now, but I'm confident Krivsky will change this and get better all around hitting. Right now --

The team lacks right handed hitting. Phillips is the best but he's no cleanup hitter.

The team lacks a lead off hitter.

EE is prone to long slumps. So is Dunn, but AD compensates with 40 dingers a year.

Reds get no offense from the catcher position.

And, overall, there is not a single all-star caliber hitter on this team. Not a one.

So there's much work to be done, but Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Todd Frazier are extremely promising on offense.

I'm sure improvements will be made. But the problem is personnel, not the batting order, not the guys Dusty chooses to start. The Reds need better all around hitters.

Falls City Beer
04-12-2008, 10:48 PM
I'm sure improvements will be made. But the problem is personnel, not the batting order, not the guys Dusty chooses to start. The Reds need better all around hitters.

Truth.

*BaseClogger*
04-12-2008, 11:03 PM
1. Votto
2. Keppinger
3. Dunn
4. Griffey
5. Encarnacion
6. Phillips
7. Patterson
8. Bako
9. Pitcher

Kc61
04-12-2008, 11:20 PM
1. Votto
2. Keppinger
3. Dunn
4. Griffey
5. Encarnacion
6. Phillips
7. Patterson
8. Bako
9. Pitcher

Nice try. Two problems.

Dunn and EE are hitting below .175. Even with this lineup.

The Reds have no right handed hitting. Even with this lineup.

Spring~Fields
04-13-2008, 01:21 AM
Rome wasn't built in a day. Now that the pitching is improved, I think Krivsky will start to focus more on offense. The team needs it. The Reds have gotten by on home runs at GABP and other cozy ballparks for a few years now, but I'm confident Krivsky will change this and get better all around hitting. Right now --

The team lacks right handed hitting. Phillips is the best but he's no cleanup hitter.

The team lacks a lead off hitter.

EE is prone to long slumps. So is Dunn, but AD compensates with 40 dingers a year.

Reds get no offense from the catcher position.

And, overall, there is not a single all-star caliber hitter on this team. Not a one.

So there's much work to be done, but Jay Bruce, Joey Votto and Todd Frazier are extremely promising on offense.

I'm sure improvements will be made. But the problem is personnel, not the batting order, not the guys Dusty chooses to start. The Reds need better all around hitters.

I agree,
I think that we have to for the most part.

The pitching is very encouraging to date, and those younger players that we are eyeing in the minors are encouraging also.

I think that this year is a testing and weeding out process, I also believe that they will do some repair work sooner than later.

It's a good thing that the flaws are being exposed.

One concern I have and we have seen it before. I don't want the young pitchers trying to over compensate for a lack of run support. I hope Dusty tells them to just stay within themselves regardless of what the offense does or does not do.

Raisor
04-13-2008, 09:30 AM
Dunn is one 3 for 4 day from hitting .267, so yeah, it's early.