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Benihana
04-09-2008, 11:47 AM
Just for the heck of it, I thought I'd put out an April edition of my Reds current Top 25 prospects. To qualify, you must be currently in the minors and rookie eligible. Juan Duran will be excluded until he actually plays a minor league game. I broke them into four categories- A prospects, B prospects, C prospects, and "Ones to watch."

1. Jay Bruce OF 21 AAA
2. Homer Bailey RHP 22 AAA
3. Todd Frazier SS/3B 22 A

4. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
5. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AA
6. Drew Stubbs CF 23 A+
7. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A
8. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AA
9. Travis Wood LHP 21 A+
10. Kyle Lotzkar RHP 18 R

11. Adam Rosales 1B/3B 25 AAA
12. Devin Mesoraco C 20 R
13. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
14. Carlos Fisher RHP 25 AA
15. Juan Francisco 3B/OF 21 A+
16. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AA
17. Chris Valaika 2B 22 A+

18. Sean Watson RHP 22 A+
19. Neftali Soto SS/OF 18 R
20. Sam LeCure RHP 23 AA
21. Pedro Viola LHP 24 AA
22. Daniel Herrera LHP 23 AA
23. Justin Turner 2B 23 A+
24. Craig Tatum C 24 AA
25. Jose Castro SS 21 AA

TOBTTReds
04-09-2008, 12:31 PM
Just for the heck of it, I thought I'd put out an April edition of my Reds current Top 25 prospects. To qualify, you must be currently in the minors and rookie eligible. Juan Duran will be excluded until he actually plays a minor league game. I broke them into four categories- A prospects, B prospects, C prospects, and "Ones to watch."

1. Homer Bailey RHP 22 AAA
2. Todd Frazier SS/3B 22 A

3. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
4. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AA
5. Drew Stubbs CF 23 A+
6. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A
7. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AA
8. Travis Wood LHP 21 A+
9. Kyle Lotzkar RHP 18 R

10. Adam Rosales 1B/3B 25 AAA
11. Devin Mesoraco C 20 R
12. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
13. Carlos Fisher RHP 25 AA
14. Juan Francisco 3B/OF 21 A+
15. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AA
16. Chris Valaika 2B 22 A+

17. Sean Watson RHP 22 A+
18. Neftali Soto SS/OF 18 R
19. Sam LeCure RHP 23 AA
20. Pedro Viola LHP 24 AA
21. Daniel Herrera LHP 23 AA
22. Justin Turner 2B 23 A+
23. Craig Tatum C 24 AA
24. Jose Castro SS 21 AA
25. Alexander Smit LHP 21 A+

My thoughts....Soto is much higher. This kid can absolutely hit. Smit doesn't make my top 30.

Juan Francisco is a top 10 kid. I know he doesn't have much patience, but he mashes everything with in reach of his bat. He has 6 doubles in his last 6 games. They weren't bloopers either. He just crushes liners everywhere. He's exciting to watch. I'm holding out hope that once pitchers learn about his lack of patience, he makes adjustments. But right now, he is a LH version of Vlad.

Dan
04-09-2008, 12:59 PM
Ummmmm...

26. Jay Bruce?

kmad
04-09-2008, 01:00 PM
No Jay Bruce?

Benihana
04-09-2008, 01:01 PM
Ummmmm...

26. Jay Bruce?

ha, good point. I left him off intentionally- I guess I should have noted that. I made the initial list in ST when everyone was assuming he would be with the big club, and I never put him back on the list after camp broke. I guess I don't really think of him as a minor leaguer anymore- silly me!

Note: I edited the list to include Bruce.

dougdirt
04-09-2008, 01:40 PM
No Jay Bruce?

Haha good call. I didn't even notice he wasn't on there either. I read it and was like 'not a bad list'.... looks like we all had some brain farts.

PuffyPig
04-09-2008, 03:52 PM
Drew Stubbs was BA's 100 best propsect going into the season, and is off to a good start.

He gets more love elsewhere than here.

He's a A level propsect.

Benihana
04-09-2008, 03:56 PM
Drew Stubbs was BA's 100 best propsect going into the season, and is off to a good start.

He gets more love elsewhere than here.

He's a A level propsect.

Not for me he's not. I view "A" level prospects as Top 50 guys in all of baseball. Because of his age and past performance, Drew Stubbs has to at least make it to Chattanooga before he could be considered as such IMO.

Don't get me wrong, I like his good start as well as his strong finish last year, but he has to keep it up for at least another month or two before I'd reconsider.

sjesu
04-09-2008, 05:03 PM
7. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A
8. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AA
9. Travis Wood LHP 21 A+
10. Kyle Lotzkar RHP 18 R

11. Adam Rosales 1B/3B 25 AAA
12. Devin Mesoraco C 20 R
13. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
14. Carlos Fisher RHP 25 AA
15. Juan Francisco 3B/OF 21 A+



2 things no one has mentioned so far...

What's the difference between Waring and Francisco that creates 7 spots between them? They play the same position, Francisco is a year younger, and a level ahead. They have similar power potential and similiar K/BB problems. In my view, they should be grouped right next to eachother, if you don't want to give Francisco a slight advantage, given that judging by the numbers, its a crap shoot to choose one to be a better major leaguer than the other.

And I know you have Rosales as the "top" C prospect, but I think you have to make the break between 11 and 12 as opposed to 10 and 11. Rosales' floor at this point is probably a utility guy in the majors (think 25th man), his ceiling is a solid regular for several years, and his Most Likely To is the first bat off the bench/platoon guy.

PuffyPig
04-09-2008, 05:09 PM
Not for me he's not. I view "A" level prospects as Top 50 guys in all of baseball. Because of his age and past performance, Drew Stubbs has to at least make it to Chattanooga before he could be considered as such IMO.

Don't get me wrong, I like his good start as well as his strong finish last year, but he has to keep it up for at least another month or two before I'd reconsider.

IF "A" means top 50 in baseball, I doubt that Frazier would be anywhere close to that. He wasn't top 100 last year, and a quick start wouldn't elevate him anywhere close to Top 50.

Patrick Bateman
04-09-2008, 07:38 PM
Drew Stubbs was BA's 100 best propsect going into the season, and is off to a good start.

He gets more love elsewhere than here.

He's a A level propsect.

It's an improvement. Benihana and I have had this conversation a dozen times. At least the likes of Justin Turner and Chris Valaika are finally behind him now.

Aronchis
04-09-2008, 07:41 PM
I don't even consider Bailey a prospect. Jay Bruce,Thompson,Wood and Frazier. Then the next group with Francisco,Waring and Lotzker(due to what we have seen so far).

Redman15
04-09-2008, 08:01 PM
It's an improvement. Benihana and I have had this conversation a dozen times. At least the likes of Justin Turner and Chris Valaika are finally behind him now.

The difference is that Valaika and Turner continue to produce on the field. You can keep hoping that maybe one day he will have a descent year. This year could be it, we will have to wait and see.

Newman4
04-09-2008, 09:48 PM
If Thompson continues to pitch well at AA, he may be moving up.

LookoutsFan07
04-09-2008, 09:53 PM
I've always been a Cody Strait fan. I was curious when he was drafted and how much he signed for?

Patrick Bateman
04-09-2008, 09:56 PM
The difference is that Valaika and Turner continue to produce on the field. You can keep hoping that maybe one day he will have a descent year. This year could be it, we will have to wait and see.

Valaika was absolutely putrid when he moved up to Sarasota last year. He's not a guy that has continuously put up sick numbers. Stubbs had a big second half. Stubbs has much high skills, so for Valaika or Turner to be ranked ahead they need to put up much higher numbers, to the point that you can't ignore them.

Their numbers have been mostly solid, but not to the point that you would consider them to be regular MLB players.

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 10:00 PM
2 things no one has mentioned so far...

What's the difference between Waring and Francisco that creates 7 spots between them? They play the same position, Francisco is a year younger, and a level ahead. They have similar power potential and similiar K/BB problems. In my view, they should be grouped right next to eachother, if you don't want to give Francisco a slight advantage, given that judging by the numbers, its a crap shoot to choose one to be a better major leaguer than the other.

That's not an insignificant observation. He's basically 1.5-2 years ahead of him on the curve. That's huge and merits the gap.

sjesu
04-09-2008, 10:14 PM
That's not an insignificant observation. He's basically 1.5-2 years ahead of him on the curve. That's huge and merits the gap.


Precisely. So why is Waring the one that's ranked ahead?

RedsManRick
04-09-2008, 10:42 PM
Precisely. So why is Waring the one that's ranked ahead?

Oops. Read the list wrong. Was thinking Fransisco was ranked a number of spots above Waring and was supporting the case for that. Nevermind...

BigRed07
04-10-2008, 01:26 AM
Valaika was absolutely putrid when he moved up to Sarasota last year. He's not a guy that has continuously put up sick numbers. Stubbs had a big second half. Stubbs has much high skills, so for Valaika or Turner to be ranked ahead they need to put up much higher numbers, to the point that you can't ignore them.

Their numbers have been mostly solid, but not to the point that you would consider them to be regular MLB players.

What numbers has Stubbs put up that would make you consider him a regular MLB player? So far he has put up sub par numbers both years considering that he was a 1st rd pick. Valaika was a 3rd rd pick and Turner a 7th rd pick. I would say that as of today, the Reds have got their money's worth from the 3rd and 7th rounders. The jury is still out on the 1st rounder.

Patrick Bateman
04-10-2008, 03:08 AM
What numbers has Stubbs put up that would make you consider him a regular MLB player? So far he has put up sub par numbers both years considering that he was a 1st rd pick. Valaika was a 3rd rd pick and Turner a 7th rd pick. I would say that as of today, the Reds have got their money's worth from the 3rd and 7th rounders. The jury is still out on the 1st rounder.

Obviously his numbers overall have stunk. His second half numbers from 07 were a very nice first step. This season will be telling whether they were legit, or just a mirage. The thing with Stubbs is the talent issue. There was good reason why he was considered a top 10 talent. That talent is still there.
As a slick fielder in CF, his bat doesn't have to be top notch... just enough to be a .775 OPSer in CF to be a true asset. So that's why the bat issues to date haven't been completely detrimental.

The problem with guys like Turner is that there is no margin for error. He's the type of guy that gets the most out of his abilities. If everything goes to plan he can be a David Eckstein type... but that's the ceiling. A slip at any area and he becomes his likely dropoff point of career minor leaguer. With Stubbs, he already has MLB defensive tools... meaning he should make it in some degree, question is whether it's bench player or defensive sub.

Look I'm not arguing that he was a terrible choice. He was, I hated the pick. But stats not withstanding, Stubbs' talent is too much too completely ignore when the alternative is utility ceiling type of guys.

Benihana
04-10-2008, 10:45 AM
Precisely. So why is Waring the one that's ranked ahead?

First off, Waring's defense is supposedly far superior to Francisco's. Of the four third base prospects in the organization, Waring has been said to be the most likely to stick at 3B.

That said, I agree there is too much of a gap in the rankings of the two. I'll admit I got a little too caught up in Waring's fast start, coupled with his monstrous finish last season. If I had to do it again, I'd probably lower Waring and raise Francisco by a few spots, but I'd still have Waring a spot or two ahead of Francisco, primarily due to his defense.

Benihana
04-10-2008, 10:47 AM
IF "A" means top 50 in baseball, I doubt that Frazier would be anywhere close to that. He wasn't top 100 last year, and a quick start wouldn't elevate him anywhere close to Top 50.

I believe that Frazier will be considered a Top 50 prospect by the time BA releases their next list at the All Star Break. I also wouldn't be surprised if he's in Chattanooga by then.

Redman15
04-10-2008, 11:23 AM
Obviously his numbers overall have stunk. His second half numbers from 07 were a very nice first step. This season will be telling whether they were legit, or just a mirage. The thing with Stubbs is the talent issue. There was good reason why he was considered a top 10 talent. That talent is still there.
As a slick fielder in CF, his bat doesn't have to be top notch... just enough to be a .775 OPSer in CF to be a true asset. So that's why the bat issues to date haven't been completely detrimental.

The problem with guys like Turner is that there is no margin for error. He's the type of guy that gets the most out of his abilities. If everything goes to plan he can be a David Eckstein type... but that's the ceiling. A slip at any area and he becomes his likely dropoff point of career minor leaguer. With Stubbs, he already has MLB defensive tools... meaning he should make it in some degree, question is whether it's bench player or defensive sub.

Look I'm not arguing that he was a terrible choice. He was, I hated the pick. But stats not withstanding, Stubbs' talent is too much too completely ignore when the alternative is utility ceiling type of guys.

Guy's like Rosales,Griffin, Valaika, and Turner have a chance to be the next Keppinger for the Reds. He has done nothing but produce on the field since he came over. Not to many people talked about him on this board when he was in the minors. I think that he is only hitting .382 so far this year.

I agree Stubbs has the tools to be the next Corey Patterson and could play in the big leagues. He is going to have to put up some decent numbers sooner or later. If not he could be the next B.J Szymanski, who by the way has gotten off to a good start in AA (.400 avg in 7 games)

Benihana
04-10-2008, 11:26 AM
Guy's like Rosales,Griffin, Valaika, and Turner have a chance to be the next Keppinger for the Reds. He has done nothing but produce on the field since he came over. Not to many people talked about him on this board when he was in the minors. I think that he is only hitting .382 so far this year.

I agree Stubbs has the tools to be the next Corey Patterson and could play in the big leagues. He is going to have to put up some decent numbers sooner or later. If not he could be the next B.J Szymanski, who by the way has gotten off to a good start in AA (.400 avg in 7 games)

I think Jeff Keppinger is the perfect ML comparison for Adam Rosales. I think the two are very similar players.

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 11:45 AM
Does anyone remember the start Thompson had last year? It will be interesting to see how he's pitching in a couple months.

OnBaseMachine
04-10-2008, 11:50 AM
Speaking of Daryl Thompson, Dusty likes him:

Baker was also impressed during spring training with Daryl Thompson, the right-hander who pitched six shutout innings for Chattanooga Tuesday.

"I like that kid," Baker said. "He's got good stuff, good demeanor, good change-up. We've got some good ones coming.

"That's good scouting."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080410/SPT04/804100357/

dougdirt
04-10-2008, 04:31 PM
Does anyone remember the start Thompson had last year? It will be interesting to see how he's pitching in a couple months.

Yeah, but Thompson wasn't throwing as hard last year as he is this year. Dude is absolutely bringing the heat right now at times. He is throwing harder now than he was before his shoulder surgery. Combine that with his control and I think he is going to rocket up prospect lists.

RedlegJake
04-10-2008, 05:47 PM
Ready now or during the season, certainly next year
1. Jay Bruce OF 21 AAA
2. Homer Bailey RHP 22 AAA
11. Adam Rosales 1B/3B 25 AAA
4. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
5. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AA

Very soon but likely next year or during next summer
16. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AA
21. Pedro Viola LHP 24 AA
24. Craig Tatum C 24 AA

2 Years out 2009 callup at earliest
12. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
3. Todd Frazier SS/3B 22 A
6. Drew Stubbs CF 23 A+
8. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AA - #3-4 starter if his arm stays healthy

2010 or later
Everyone else. Either they're too young yet (Waring/Soto/Francisco/Lotzkar), or they haven't produced at a level that says Major leaguer yet (LeCure/Fisher). Anything could happen with these guys. Really great years could rocket them into earlier consideration (Travis Wood). Poor performances/health could kick them off prospect lists altogether.

PuffyPig
04-10-2008, 11:56 PM
I think Jeff Keppinger is the perfect ML comparison for Adam Rosales. I think the two are very similar players.


But forevery Keppinger who makes it, there are 20 that don't.

Steve4192
04-13-2008, 10:55 AM
I think Jeff Keppinger is the perfect ML comparison for Adam Rosales. I think the two are very similar players.

I don't see that at all.

Keppinger has always been a hitting machine, hitting 380 during his days at Georgia, 335 in the high minors (AA+AAA), and 309 in the majors. Keppinger was a freshman first team all-american, second team all-american, first team all SEC and two-time minor league all-star. The only downer is that while he showed solid power with an aluminum bat, he has only shown gap power with the wood. His calling card is definitely his consistent ability to make contact.

OTOH, Rosales has been hot and cold throughout his career. He hit an abysmal 256 his sophomore year at Western Michigan and was mediocre in the minors as recently as 2006, hitting 250 at Dayton/Sarasota combined. He was nowhere near as decorated as Keppinger either at college (the best he ever did was make all MAC) or in the minors. His overall minor league BA is 35 points below Keppinger's and his BA in the high minors is 57 points below Keppinger's.

I like Rosales and think he will make a fine MLB reserve who is capable of holding his own if he ever gets the call to start, but he is no Jeff Keppinger.

dougdirt
04-13-2008, 11:01 AM
Well lets note that Rosales was battling injuries all of 2006 and that when he came back in 2007 healthy absolutely raked. I think Keppinger is a bad comparison for him though simply because Rosales has a lot more pop in his bat, but won't hit for as good of an average although he will hit for a decent one.

Steve4192
04-13-2008, 11:52 AM
Well lets note that Rosales was battling injuries all of 2006

That still doesn't explain his terrible sophomore year at Western Michigan (256/338/405) or his disappointing senior season when his numbers dropped across the board versus the levels he established his junior year. The guy hasn't strung together two solid seasons at any point in his career.

Hopefully, this is the year he finally does build off of a great season rather than regress, but I'm not terribly optimistic about the prospect. He certainly isn't looking like a world-beater thus far in 2008 (143/161/179).

dougdirt
04-13-2008, 12:18 PM
That still doesn't explain his terrible sophomore year at Western Michigan (256/338/405) or his disappointing senior season when his numbers dropped across the board versus the levels he established his junior year. The guy hasn't strung together two solid seasons at any point in his career.

Hopefully, this is the year he finally does build off of a great season rather than regress, but I'm not terribly optimistic about the prospect. He certainly isn't looking like a world-beater thus far in 2008 (143/161/179).
I would say his junior year + his senior year/Billings/Dayton was certainly 2 good back to back years.

As for this year, its very early and the guy can't buy a hit. He has a fine LD% and a .200 BABIP. Things will begin to swing the other way as the season progresses and he will be fine.

mth123
04-13-2008, 12:38 PM
Here is mine for giggles:



Rank Name
1 Bruce
2 Bailey
3 Frazier
4 Roenicke
5 Rosales
6 Maloney
7 Dorn
8 Francisco (up)
9 Fisher
10 Waring
11 Herrera (up)
12 Thompson
13 Wood
14 Watson
15 Lotzkar
16 Soto
17 Stubbs
18 Jukich
19 Valaika
20 Viola
21 McBeth
22 Dickerson
23 Pelland
24 Tatum
25 Lutz



It should not change much and this may be more of a re-thinking than anything based on the season so far. My Personal Biggest riser - Daniel Herrera, as well as rises from Francisco, and Waring who both make me nervous with the lack of plate discipline. Seeing a good start eases the nerves a little. Biggest drops for me personally - Dickerson, McBeth, Pelland, Viola. Dickerson and McBeth may be pretty old before a role develops and could both get passed by lower level guys.

I really think Herrera with his soft, softer, and softest mix, in the middle of a pen with Roenicke, Lincoln, Burton and Cordero could foul-up a lot of hitters. He would be perfect for coming in after a guy like Cueto, Volquez or Bailey. He'd probably be good for one time through the line-up. I think a hitter going from say Cueto to Herrera and back to hard stuff from say Burton or Cordero could really get messed up.

Grande Donkey
04-13-2008, 12:48 PM
Here is mine for giggles:



Rank Name
1 Bruce
2 Bailey
3 Frazier
4 Roenicke
5 Rosales
6 Maloney
7 Dorn
8 Francisco (up)
9 Fisher
10 Waring
11 Herrera (up)
12 Thompson
13 Wood
14 Watson
15 Lotzkar
16 Soto
17 Stubbs
18 Jukich
19 Valaika
20 Viola
21 McBeth
22 Dickerson
23 Pelland
24 Tatum
25 Lutz



It should not change much and this may be more of a re-thinking than anything based on the season so far. My Personal Biggest riser - Daniel Herrera, as well as rises from Francisco, and Waring who both make me nervous with the lack of plate discipline. Seeing a good start eases the nerves a little. Biggest drops for me personally - Dickerson, McBeth, Pelland, Viola. Dickerson and McBeth may be pretty old before a role develops and could both get passed by lower level guys.

I really think Herrera with his soft, softer, and softest mix, in the middle of a pen with Roenicke, Lincoln, Burton and Cordero could foul-up a lot of hitters. He would be perfect for coming in after a guy like Cueto, Volquez or Bailey. He'd probably be good for one time through the line-up. I think a hitter going from say Cueto to Herrera and back to hard stuff from say Burton or Cordero could really get messed up.

No Mesoraco?

mth123
04-13-2008, 01:02 PM
No Mesoraco?

Not yet. I'm a skeptic that needs to see something on the field unless there is just no one else or something really special about a draft pick. So far, "picked in round 1" isn't enough to make my top 25. I had him at 31 pre-season. So far, Mesoraco is just a draftee that didn't perform at the lowest level of rookie ball. I'm sure he'll hang around and move along the system based on his 1st round status. Hopefully, he'll succeed and I can stick him on the list at some point.

I debated about Lotzkar and Soto for the same reasons, but they at least had limited success in 2007 to somewhat verify the scouting optimism.