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View Full Version : Ryan Freel since August 1st, 2006



Cyclone792
04-10-2008, 09:13 AM
First, for comparison purposes, here's Ryan Freel's cumulative lifetime statistics from his first MLB game - April 4th, 2001 - through July 31st, 2006 ...


G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP ROE SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
388 1533 1325 214 373 69 14 18 85 162 1 221 32 0 13 4 20 107 31 .282 .370 .395 .765


The above is a pretty good player there, especially since he also added in some decent defensive play in the outfield, including center field. But now here's Freel's production from August 1st, 2006 through April 9th, 2008, and the below stats do also include his 2-5, SF performance from last night ...


G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS
+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+

Aug/Sep 06 42 190 162 20 35 8 0 1 6 23 0 41 2 3 0 2 14 5 .216 .321 .284 .605
2007 75 304 277 44 68 13 3 3 16 18 0 47 7 2 0 4 15 8 .245 .308 .347 .655
2008 7 19 17 2 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 .176 .211 .235 .446

Total 124 513 456 66 106 22 3 4 23 42 0 90 9 5 1 6 30 14 .232 .309 .320 .629

So Freel, in 388 games prior to August 1st, 2006, was producing quite nicely to the tune of .282/.370/.395/.765 with 107 stolen bases in 138 attempts, good for a 77.5 percent success rate.

But since August 1st, 2006? Egh ...

First, that .232/.309/.320/.629 OPS is just an abundance of production right there, and those 30 stolen bases in 44 attempts is an impressive 68 percent rate. Not only has Freel stopped hitting in his last 513 plate appearances, but he's also been costing the team runs with his erratic baserunning.

So what's going on here? Is Freel taking a similar path as Jason LaRue and hundreds of other players throughout history by mysteriously becoming a bad ballplayer once he stepped over to the other side of 30? Concussions do a body no good; has his erratic play and injuries caught up to him? Juan Castro joined the Reds in mid June of 2006; has Freel been taking hitting advice from Castro?

The only thing I do know is .232/.309/.320/.629 in 513 PAs isn't pretty.

OldXOhio
04-10-2008, 09:17 AM
Dead Man Walking was going through my mind watching the game last night.

lollipopcurve
04-10-2008, 09:22 AM
The only thing I do know is .232/.309/.320/.629 in 513 PAs isn't pretty.

Nope, it isn't. Hopper is a better player.

RedlegJake
04-10-2008, 09:55 AM
Yeah, I had hoped Freel was recovered and back to his old self -time was when he would come in a game you could feel the team's whole energy level rise. It's just gone. He's still an adventure in the field but now that the speed and production are gone it's not entertaining anymore, just bad baseball.

Falls City Beer
04-10-2008, 09:57 AM
Maybe he needs to stop drinking. Or start drinking.

Highlifeman21
04-10-2008, 10:01 AM
First, that .232/.309/.320/.629 OPS is just an abundance of production right there

Sarcasm?

Seems to be a lack of production, rather than an abundance.


Hopper is a better player.

Even with Freel's struggles, I'd take Hopper over Freel due to the fact Freel plays more positions. Offensively, right now they're both teh suck.

Hopper can bunt, that's about it. Once his BABIP comes down (as it most likely will), his AVG driven OBP will also drop. Hopper's a 4th OF at best. At least Freel can play some IF positions besides the OF.

lollipopcurve
04-10-2008, 10:18 AM
At least Freel can play some IF positions besides the OF.

Yeah, but he plays them poorly.

bucksfan
04-10-2008, 10:20 AM
Dead Man Walking was going through my mind watching the game last night.

I have to admit, it was for me also. I like Freel and what he brought to the table as far as spark and ability to fill in at many positions (and previously a decent OBP). But he seems kinda "hollow" out there and, as has been mentioned countless times on here, is a redundant bat at best with Hopper also on the team.

RedlegJake
04-10-2008, 10:21 AM
Sarcasm?

Seems to be a lack of production, rather than an abundance.



Even with Freel's struggles, I'd take Hopper over Freel due to the fact Freel plays more positions. Offensively, right now they're both teh suck.

Hopper can bunt, that's about it. Once his BABIP comes down (as it most likely will), his AVG driven OBP will also drop. Hopper's a 4th OF at best. At least Freel can play some IF positions besides the OF.

I'd rather have have Cabrera and Hairston than Hopper and Freel, to tell you the truth.

lollipopcurve
04-10-2008, 10:30 AM
I'd rather have have Cabrera and Hairston than Hopper and Freel, to tell you the truth.

No -- keep Hopper and drop Castro in favor of Hairston. Hairston call play all INF positions. Cabrera for Freel works for me.

oneupper
04-10-2008, 10:38 AM
Just thought I'd link the thread with Freel's extension.
I'm not right much, but I was right about this one.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56816

I'd put a few "caveats" on Freel's numbers too.

1) Soft hits: many of Freel's hits are of the IF variety or barely make it to the OF. Fine, if you're leading off, but I've lost count of the times that the 8th guy (Larue, Valentin, Ross), gets on..gets bunted over, and a Freel hit can't bring him in.

2) Pickoffs. It's Vox Populi in the NL that Freel's leads are too large and he can be picked off rather easily. Any value he may have had as a base stealer is lost right there.

OldXOhio
04-10-2008, 11:24 AM
I have to admit, it was for me also. I like Freel and what he brought to the table as far as spark and ability to fill in at many positions (and previously a decent OBP). But he seems kinda "hollow" out there and, as has been mentioned countless times on here, is a redundant bat at best with Hopper also on the team.

And Keppinger. With those two covering the utility needs of both IF and OF, I don't know what role RF is filling any longer.

VR
04-10-2008, 11:28 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the magic juice at some point.

It seems he no longer has any quickness/strength in his bat to fight off those tough pitches for bloops or catch up to pitches. That k rate increase is scary.

Cyclone792
04-10-2008, 11:35 AM
2) Pickoffs. It's Vox Populi in the NL that Freel's leads are too large and he can be picked off rather easily. Any value he may have had as a base stealer is lost right there.

I've searched for some pickoff data, but it's pretty difficult to track down. Through watching most Reds games though, you're definitely correct that Freel's pickoffs are a problem. Once you tally up his CS and pickoffs, his stolen base value is pretty much steaming toward the negatives.


I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the magic juice at some point.

It seems he no longer has any quickness/strength in his bat to fight off those tough pitches for bloops or catch up to pitches. That k rate increase is scary.

That went through my mind when I was analyzing the data, but I didn't want to say it right away. All that being said, you'd hope to think it isn't the case, but one may wonder if Freel was ever using something during his productive years that MLB now frowns upon. Like RedlegJake said, Freel was an energetic and productive player for quite a bit, but now he's just an overall bad baseball player.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2008, 11:42 AM
He does look frail. Maybe it's age. Maybe it's and oversized shirt that never seems to stay tucked in, but he does look like he's been staying away from the weight room.

I want him out. He's not necessary (especially at the price) with Hopper and Keppinger on the roster.

bucksfan2
04-10-2008, 11:47 AM
I've searched for some pickoff data, but it's pretty difficult to track down. Through watching most Reds games though, you're definitely correct that Freel's pickoffs are a problem. Once you tally up his CS and pickoffs, his stolen base value is pretty much steaming toward the negatives.



That went through my mind when I was analyzing the data, but I didn't want to say it right away. All that being said, you'd hope to think it isn't the case, but one may wonder if Freel was ever using something during his productive years that MLB now frowns upon. Like RedlegJake said, Freel was an energetic and productive player for quite a bit, but now he's just an overall bad baseball player.

His baserunning is downright awful. He has the speed and it almost seems that he has disregarded everything else and just used his speed to steal bases. Maybe its a knee problem and he cant get that explosive jump that he used to but he almost seems clueless in getting a good jump on a pitcher.

Could it be that Freel is done? I mean he played his entire minor league career and his first few season in cincy at full throttle. You can only go so hard for so long. As you age you need to reinvent yourself as a baseball player. You need to focus more on reading the ball off the bat better on the defensive end of the game and you need to recognize the pitches better as a hitter. Freel seems like he didn't want to change and adapt the way he plays the game and it really has shown over the past year or so.

Benihana
04-10-2008, 11:47 AM
maybe we could sell him to Kansas City for $1?

redsmetz
04-10-2008, 11:56 AM
Just thought I'd link the thread with Freel's extension.
I'm not right much, but I was right about this one.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56816

Interesting thread - I found my comment and I was right about the money, but I was most likely off on the contract making him "more tradeable". On that thread, I wrote:


According to Cot's, Freel made $2.35 Million with his Plate Appearance bonus from last year. I doubt he signs a new contract for less than he's making this year. I'd be comfortable with a $6 - $7 Million dollar deal.

I'm with those who suggest this makes Freel more tradeable. I'm not saying that's a given, but I think WK likes to have contract longevity to give him flexibility in the trade market. I could be wrong about that, and only time will tell, as we see how these things work out. It will be interesting.

I think that was Krivsky method then, but I think the market has changed in MLB and clubs are being much more selective about their marginal & bench players. The discussion we're having about Patterson, our signing of Fogg, both a lower dollars and brought in via minor league deals, I think indicates that clubs are being more cautious with their dollars (I know - it's incredible that $3M or $1M is being frugal).

I think the team wills till try to move Freel and it most likely will require eating some of his salary. He his redundant at this point.

Chip R
04-10-2008, 11:56 AM
It just goes to show you that if you have a modicum of talent and you hustle all the time, you too can be signed to a multi-million dollar long term deal with the Reds.

Fathers, remember that as your sons are growing up.

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 11:57 AM
It looks like Ryan Freel has hit a wall. http://forum.voetbalzone.nl/images/smilies/rimshot.gif

Highlifeman21
04-10-2008, 12:10 PM
2 different questions.

1. Who's contract is the bigger burden to the Reds? Freel or Castro?

2. Which player is more worthless? Freel or Castro?


-------

My answers.

1. Freel.

2. Castro.

OldXOhio
04-10-2008, 12:24 PM
Like RedlegJake said, Freel was an energetic and productive player for quite a bit, but now he's just an overall bad baseball player.

Freel's now 32. It may just simply be that he ran into one too many walls. Eventually, his style of play had to catch up with him.

REDREAD
04-10-2008, 12:35 PM
So what's going on here? Is Freel taking a similar path as Jason LaRue and hundreds of other players throughout history by mysteriously becoming a bad ballplayer once he stepped over to the other side of 30? Concussions do a body no good; has his erratic play and injuries caught up to him? Juan Castro joined the Reds in mid June of 2006; has Freel been taking hitting advice from Castro?

The only thing I do know is .232/.309/.320/.629 in 513 PAs isn't pretty.

This is why I was miffed with Wayne giving him an extension. He was a big risk to decline at the time of the contract. This is also why I liked the Patterson signing. I did not want Freel or Hopper to get regular starts in CF. Sure, Patterson has warts as well, but at least he has some plus skills.
At this point, Freel has no plus skills. His OF defense is good, but not superlative. Hopper is better than Freel, IMO, but not great. I feel Hopper would be exposed with regular playing time as well.

My guess is that the league has also adjusted to him. IIRC, Freel came on the scenes like gangbusters in limited playing time. One he started getting more regular playing time, I assume the opponents started to scout him better.

bucksfan2
04-10-2008, 12:35 PM
2 different questions.

1. Who's contract is the bigger burden to the Reds? Freel or Castro?

2. Which player is more worthless? Freel or Castro?


-------

My answers.

1. Freel.

2. Castro.

1. Freel. I don't think Castro's contract is a burden. I don't think if need be that the reds would think twice about eating it. I also think that Krivsky and even Dusty for that matter like what Castro brings to the clubhouse and don't mind the $1M he makes this season. I also think they plan on keeping him on the payroll as an instructer after this season is done.

2. Freel. With Hopper doing Freel's outfield duties better than Freel and Keppy filling Freel's infield duties Freel really doesn't have much of a place to go. Not to mention that Bruce will be in cincy at some point and that would put Freel in more of a pinch than anything. Freel has to get on base at a high clip because his baserunning errors really limit the effectiveness that he actually has when on base.

REDREAD
04-10-2008, 01:00 PM
I don't necessarily think it's the dollar value on Freel's contract that's the problem.

The problem is that he stinks, and should've never been "locked up". The Reds had him under arb control for those 2 years. Apparently Wayne thought the club was signing money by locking up Freel. Either that or Wayne hoped that long term contract = happier player = more production. Those are the only two reasons I can think of for giving a dumb and unnecessary contract to Freel.

IMO, Wayne has been reckless with contracts. People remember the no brainers like Dunn and Harang and praise him, but he's given out many dumb ones. The only controversal one I supported was Arroyo.. which may end up being a bad one, but I can swallow the risk of locking him up, because if we didn't Arroyo would be a FA after this year (IIRC). But Wayne has given out way too many Stinker contracts, although I do agree that he spent his money more prudently this offseason. Maybe he's learning.

membengal
04-10-2008, 01:14 PM
Interesting long view. He certainly has not been remotely the same, in my minds eye, since his horrific warning track head/neck thing.

Chip R
04-10-2008, 01:22 PM
I don't necessarily think it's the dollar value on Freel's contract that's the problem.

The problem is that he stinks, and should've never been "locked up". The Reds had him under arb control for those 2 years. Apparently Wayne thought the club was signing money by locking up Freel. Either that or Wayne hoped that long term contract = happier player = more production. Those are the only two reasons I can think of for giving a dumb and unnecessary contract to Freel.


At the time Freel signed the deal, the Reds were in contention for the division title and he was a main reason why with his speed at the top of the lineup and his diving catches in the OF. The fans ate that up with a spoon and I think that was more of a bone thrown to the fans rather than a desire to lock Freel up. It showed the fans the Reds were willing to spend money and willing to spend it on someone who, in their eyes, deserved it more than any other player. Mark my words, when Freel leaves, there are going to be many POed fans.

Cyclone792
04-10-2008, 01:24 PM
Interesting long view. He certainly has not been remotely the same, in my minds eye, since his horrific warning track head/neck thing.

I believe that was the collision in late May. He also had a collision late in spring training last year, I believe.

What's discouraging is Freel has been awful in every month since the summer of 2006. Both August and September of 2006 were lousy. Every month in 2007 was lousy (he had 90+ PAs in April, May and July). Obviously 19 PAs isn't anything so far this season, but he just hasn't looked good at all this year.

The trend that reaches back over 500 PAs and includes five full months of PAs is what's very discouraging.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-10-2008, 01:54 PM
Good contracts:

Harang
Dunn

Bad contracts/acquired contracts:

Rheal Cormier
Mike Stanton
Ryan Freel
David Ross
Alex Gonzalez
Juan Castro
Todd Coffey

Not sure:

Bronson Arroyo

camisadelgolf
04-10-2008, 03:02 PM
Todd Coffey was going to make about that much through arbitration anyway. It's not like he got a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal. If David Ross weren't signed, who would be catching now? Alvin Colina? Craig Tatum? Sure, Ross has sucked, and he's possibly over-paid, but in context, it's not that bad of a contract. The Alex Gonzalez contract isn't hurting the Reds either, in my opinion. Ryan Freel still has nearly two years to prove that the contract wasn't a mistake. You could add Javier Valentin to the 'bad contracts' portion (but I wouldn't).

Scott Hatteberg would be a 'good' contract, I think. Francisco Cordero, Jeremy Affeldt, Corey Patterson, and Josh Fogg are TBD. I think Brandon Phillips is, too.

REDREAD
04-10-2008, 03:10 PM
At the time Freel signed the deal, the Reds were in contention for the division title and he was a main reason why with his speed at the top of the lineup and his diving catches in the OF. The fans ate that up with a spoon and I think that was more of a bone thrown to the fans rather than a desire to lock Freel up. It showed the fans the Reds were willing to spend money and willing to spend it on someone who, in their eyes, deserved it more than any other player. Mark my words, when Freel leaves, there are going to be many POed fans.

Which is certainly possible, but very stupid.
The Reds had control of Freel for the next two years.
It's not as if he was a pending free agent.

I mean, the Reds shouldn't sign Ceuto to a 12 year contract tommorrow for the sole purpose of making the fans year. It only makes sense to sign a young guy to a long term deal if it's projected to save the team money or buy out FA years.. It's ok to take some risk, but what's the risk that a backup OF is suddenly going to get overpriced? That's what boggles my mind. Wayne locks up guys like Freel, Castro, Stanton, extends Cormier, Alex Gonzles, etc.. when these guys are CLEARLY not building blocks for the future or key pieces to win now. People rightly criticize DanO for signing Milton, but Wayne has flushed more money than that, he just spread it out over many more players and was able to cut a few so the fans didn't suffer through the entire contract.

Appeasing the fans is a poor excuse for signing Freel. Freel was going nowhere. Now he's a 7 million dollar albotross that nobody in their right mind would trade for (unless the Reds take someone else's albotross).

Chip R
04-10-2008, 03:16 PM
Appeasing the fans is a poor excuse for signing Freel. Freel was going nowhere. Now he's a 7 million dollar albotross that nobody in their right mind would trade for (unless the Reds take someone else's albotross).


True enough but I can see that being the reasoning behind it.

REDREAD
04-10-2008, 03:45 PM
Not sure:

Bronson Arroyo

Add Weathers to the "Not sure" catagory.

I didn't mind the contract at the time, because I assumed that if the Reds were out of it last year that Weathers would've been dealt to a contender.
Instead, Wayne made Weathers untouchable. Now granted, Weathers isn't going to break the bank, but it's still risky and not necessarily efficient use of funds.

RBA
04-10-2008, 04:57 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1305496&postcount=115

WVRedsFan
04-10-2008, 05:27 PM
Just thought I'd link the thread with Freel's extension.
I'm not right much, but I was right about this one.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=56816

I'd put a few "caveats" on Freel's numbers too.

1) Soft hits: many of Freel's hits are of the IF variety or barely make it to the OF. Fine, if you're leading off, but I've lost count of the times that the 8th guy (Larue, Valentin, Ross), gets on..gets bunted over, and a Freel hit can't bring him in.

2) Pickoffs. It's Vox Populi in the NL that Freel's leads are too large and he can be picked off rather easily. Any value he may have had as a base stealer is lost right there.

I can't believe I didn't comment in that thread, but the longer he plays the less he deserves that money this year. I can't imagine next year. I was against the extention and I'm against it now, as if that made any difference. I've always said like Oneupper said that he negates all of his good traits with pickoffs, bone-headed base running and showboating in the outfield (ala Jim Edmonds).

But, hey, fans love a hot dog and Freel is one of those with both chilli and cheese.

WVRedsFan
04-10-2008, 05:30 PM
At the time Freel signed the deal, the Reds were in contention for the division title and he was a main reason why with his speed at the top of the lineup and his diving catches in the OF. The fans ate that up with a spoon and I think that was more of a bone thrown to the fans rather than a desire to lock Freel up. It showed the fans the Reds were willing to spend money and willing to spend it on someone who, in their eyes, deserved it more than any other player. Mark my words, when Freel leaves, there are going to be many POed fans.

That's why early extentions are not wise. The whole picture is never avaliable in April. Bad move. POed fans? If you're winning, who cares?

Chip R
04-10-2008, 05:35 PM
That's why early extentions are not wise. The whole picture is never avaliable in April. Bad move. POed fans? If you're winning, who cares?


Some care more about their favorite players than they do about winning.

RFS62
04-10-2008, 05:35 PM
Freel is going to end up like Coach in Cheers.

One too many knocks to the melon.

GAC
04-11-2008, 08:05 PM
Freel is going to end up like Coach in Cheers.

One too many knocks to the melon.

I see him more as Woody.