What's up with Mesaraco?

[Kingspoint]

I see he's listed at the bottom of the REDS' organization on the GCL REDS' roster.

I couldn't find any posts on him here, so I'm left to ask the question to find out what the news is on him.


Was that too big a risk to make on a 1st Round pick?


Should they also go catcher with their 2nd Round pick in June and don't expect Mesaraco to reach the Majors with good potential once he gets there?

He looks like he's on the Drew Stubbs growth timeline and that before he's effectively an average Major League Catcher, he'll be 27 by then.

[cincyinco]

Guy was a HS pick.. he's in the GCL, a Short Season league.. games start in what.. mid/late june? he's probably in instructionals.

I recall hearing word he was very impressive so far in instructionals...

Give this guy some time, before we rush to judgement. Don't treat this kid like Stubbs has been treated around here.

Crud, Stubbs has even gotten a bum rap around here IMO.

[dougdirt]

Simply put, the Reds have too many guys they want to get playing time and as a result it means guys are in places they shouldn't be. Mesoraco, Soto, Waring, Lotzkar and Frazier would all be at least 1 level higher in almost every system in baseball.

[redsmetz]

Simply put, the Reds have too many guys they want to get playing time and as a result it means guys are in places they shouldn't be. Mesoraco, Soto, Waring, Lotzkar and Frazier would all be at least 1 level higher in almost every system in baseball.

I'm not sure how to pose this question, but isn't the organization showing some direction to be weeding out guys during the seasons to make room for players who need to move up? I haven't looked at the last couple of years transactions to analyze that, but it seems to me that Krivsky has shown that he's willing to cut minor leaguers or move them for other lower level players, allowing the better players to advance.

I know he seems committed to the step by step approach in the minors overall, but has anyone else seen these types of moves allowing for the advancement of other players?

[mth123]

I'm not sure how to pose this question, but isn't the organization showing some direction to be weeding out guys during the seasons to make room for players who need to move up? I haven't looked at the last couple of years transactions to analyze that, but it seems to me that Krivsky has shown that he's willing to cut minor leaguers or move them for other lower level players, allowing the better players to advance.

I know he seems committed to the step by step approach in the minors overall, but has anyone else seen these types of moves allowing for the advancement of other players?

They have weeded out some guys, but they clogged the system with too many vets. All those guys you saw in Spring Training are now holding down spots in AAA and pushing guys back. But the position players aren't as much jammed because of those guys as they are an abundance of guys for a few spots. They have a logjam of guys for the IF in the low minors. Valaika stalling in High A last year stopped him from moving to AA and Frazier, Francisco, and Waring are all guys who should probably playing 3B in Sarasota. What has happened is that Frazier and Waring were held back in Dayton (with Frazier playing SS where he probably does not belong). The result is no place for Soto to play and Cozart biding his time on the DL. Brett Bartles is stuck with part time duty.

In Mesoraco's case, he probably needs time in the advanced rookie ball league in Billings. He wasn't good in the GCL last year and there is no need to jump him to Dayton until he gets a little success under his belt.

The Pitchers are really the guys being held back by the journeyman. Guys like Ricky Stone, Gary Majewski, Jon Adkins, Justin Lehr, Tom Shearn, Adam Pettyjohn and Jim Brower are filling-up too many spots at AAA. That is holding guys like Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher, Pedro Viola, Daniel Herrera and Justin James back to AA. With those spots filled, there isn't room for guys like Robert Manual, Camilo Vazquez etc. I think its a good idea to have some vet depth for the pitching staff at AAA, but with Bailey, Maloney, Bray and McBeth down there, there isn't a need for so many of the 30 somethings. I'd keep Lehr, Pettyjohn and maybe Shearn (out of organizational loyalty or something like that) and give the rest their walking papers soon. Brower, Stone, Adkins and Majewski are so far down the depth chart that a stint in Cincy is probably not in the cards. Those guys may be helping the Bats, I don't really know, but from an organizational development standpoint, they are just taking up space. The younger guys would probably prove to be capable replacements for the bats from a competitive perspective. The problem will get worse when Scott Sauerbeck comes off the AAA DL.

[camisadelgolf]

Mesoraco being last on the depth chart is merely a formality.

[Benihana]

I don't want to rush to judgment on Mesoraco, especially when he's only 19 years old, but...

In the last ten years, no catcher taken in the first forty picks, high school or college, has ever repeated rookie league in his second season and went on to make a difference at the big league level. If he doesn't dominate rookie ball once their season gets going, I'd start to be concerned.

[Kc61]

The Pitchers are really the guys being held back by the journeyman. Guys like Ricky Stone, Gary Majewski, Jon Adkins, Justin Lehr, Tom Shearn, Adam Pettyjohn and Jim Brower are filling-up too many spots at AAA. That is holding guys like Josh Roenicke, Carlos Fisher, Pedro Viola, Daniel Herrera and Justin James back to AA. With those spots filled, there isn't room for guys like Robert Manual, Camilo Vazquez etc. I think its a good idea to have some vet depth for the pitching staff at AAA, but with Bailey, Maloney, Bray and McBeth down there, there isn't a need for so many of the 30 somethings. I'd keep Lehr, Pettyjohn and maybe Shearn (out of organizational loyalty or something like that) and give the rest their walking papers soon. Brower, Stone, Adkins and Majewski are so far down the depth chart that a stint in Cincy is probably not in the cards. Those guys may be helping the Bats, I don't really know, but from an organizational development standpoint, they are just taking up space. The younger guys would probably prove to be capable replacements for the bats from a competitive perspective. The problem will get worse when Scott Sauerbeck comes off the AAA DL.

I think the Reds system an appropriate number of veterans. The Reds usually don't like to rush young guys through and that's an ok philosophy IMO. In case of a rash of injuries in the major leagues, teams want vets at AAA to provide depth. Also, many of the guys at AA haven't really "graduated" to AAA yet. I'm sure we'll see cuts of guys who can't help fairly soon.

One thing that could help advance players would be a short-season A ball team. Reds don't have one and most teams do.

Reds proved to me last year that they will fast track a player when he's ready and I think we'll see a lot of movement upward in the system this year. As for Mesoraco, Lotzkar, Soto, etc., I believe they are teenagers and it makes sense to me for them to play a half season at Billings this year, where they are likely slated to go.

[RedlegJake]

I don't want to rush to judgment on Mesoraco, especially when he's only 19 years old, but...

In the last ten years, no catcher taken in the first forty picks, high school or college, has ever repeated rookie league in his second season and went on to make a difference at the big league level. If he doesn't dominate rookie ball once their season gets going, I'd start to be concerned.

Bah.

Hs players in particular quite often have horrid first seasons. Add to that Mes wasn't entirely healthy last season. If he struggles this year THEN I have some concerns but basically I never worry about first year results for a HS player.

[Benihana]

Bah.

Hs players in particular quite often have horrid first seasons. Add to that Mes wasn't entirely healthy last season. If he struggles this year THEN I have some concerns but basically I never worry about first year results for a HS player.

That's my point exactly. The fact that he is repeating rookie ball this year is what piqued my attention. First round prospects (high schoolers and catchers included) don't repeat rookie ball in their second season, so if he isn't a man amongst boys I would be concerned.

[Edd Roush]

Bah.

Hs players in particular quite often have horrid first seasons. Add to that Mes wasn't entirely healthy last season. If he struggles this year THEN I have some concerns but basically I never worry about first year results for a HS player.

Derek Jeter springs immediately to mind.

[Kingspoint]

I don't want to rush to judgment on Mesoraco, especially when he's only 19 years old, but...

In the last ten years, no catcher taken in the first forty picks, high school or college, has ever repeated rookie league in his second season and went on to make a difference at the big league level. If he doesn't dominate rookie ball once their season gets going, I'd start to be concerned.

He's 20 now (june 19, he'll be 20).

[M2]

I recall hearing word he was very impressive so far in instructionals...

I remember when Ricardo Aramboles was supposedly a stud in the instructional camp. Jordan Belcher once thrived in games that didn't count as well.


Give this guy some time, before we rush to judgement. Don't treat this kid like Stubbs has been treated around here.

Actually, if things go wrong, Mesoraco could be the best thing that ever happened to Drew Stubbs.


Mesoraco, Soto, Waring, Lotzkar and Frazier would all be at least 1 level higher in almost every system in baseball.

Frazier and Waring, sure. Mesoraco, Soto and Lotzkar were all in the GCL last year and playing in Billings represents a step forward. Lotzkar's so young that I see little reason to rush him. A sensible major league ETA for him would be six years from now, when he's 24. I'm sure other organizations would push him too quickly as part of a lousy development plan, but it's nice to see the Reds act like adult professionals. Soto's definitely caught at the back of a queue, but Mesoraco's not. If the Reds thought he could handle the MWL, he'd be starting in the MWL. There's only one thing keeping him in rookie ball, the Reds clearly don't think he's ready for a full-season circuit.

[Kingspoint]

On a couple of the pitcher's mentioned in this thread. Viola should probably stay where he is all year long. He went through three levels last year where he dominated them all, but so far he's the worst pitcher on the team right now. He's struggling to get anybody out.

Majewski is also the worst pitcher on his team right now. He can't get anybody out, so they couldn't even trade him right now for anything. A cut may be in his future. He's probably trade fodder right now anyway and if they can get someone to take a flyer on him in exchange for a low-A player, Krivsky will do it.

[Kingspoint]

M2, Mesaraco is on the GCL Roster again. He hasn't made it to Billings, yet. Other 2nd Round Catchers are already at High-A in some organizations and hitting over .300 the 1st Week of 2008. They were in College, but they also had injuries last year as difficult as Mesoraco's.

If I remember you were OK with the pick, but you also brought up the idea that picking an 18-year old who's only competition was some American Legion games where his dad was the coach, and who's had "major" surgery, was not worth the risk. I'm just trying to remember whether you said that or not, but it doesn't matter. I'm not trying to hold you to anything, but actually trying to give you some credit. Mesoraco's current situation after 9 months is the worst-case scenario.

I know that his weakness was supposed to be defense and perhaps he was so horrible at defense last year that they want him to spend another season in the instructional league. Isn't that what the GCL is? If that's the case, then I'm all for it. I always felt at the time of the pick that he hadn't been around enough good teachers to begin with and I'd like to see him stick as a catcher. As evidenced by last season, he needs to work on his hitting, too (a Castro-esque .580 OPS last season). He should dominate the GCL league in the hitting category given that he'll be 20 on June 18th and should be able to physically overmatch the rest of the league.

Again, I'm hoping the reason he's in the GCL still is because they want him to develop into a good defensive catcher to go along with his offensive skills.

Now, the other question.....Do we draft a Catcher with our 2nd Round pick?

[Kingspoint]

Simply put, the Reds have too many guys they want to get playing time and as a result it means guys are in places they shouldn't be. Mesoraco, Soto, Waring, Lotzkar and Frazier would all be at least 1 level higher in almost every system in baseball.

That's a very good problem to have. Taking a chance that you're keeping a player too long at one level is always better than taking a chance that you're moving him up too soon.

[REDblooded]

Now, the other question.....Do we draft a Catcher with our 2nd Round pick?

Drafting a catcher with a pick we don't have is gonna be tough to do...........
(see Francisco Cordero)

[M2]

M2, Mesaraco is on the GCL Roster again.

I don't read anything into that. It's not what roster he's on at the moment, but which one he's on when those leagues start. However, if he's back on the GCL roster, then it's a major condemnation of his game at this time.


If I remember you were OK with the pick, but you also brought up the idea that picking an 18-year old who's only competition was some American Legion games where his dad was the coach, and who's had "major" surgery, was not worth the risk. I'm just trying to remember whether you said that or not, but it doesn't matter. I'm not trying to hold you to anything, but actually trying to give you some credit. Mesoraco's current situation after 9 months is the worst-case scenario.

I tried not to bash the pick too much, but I thought taking a HS catcher from central PA at that spot likely was a disastrous decision. I didn't think he had any business getting selected in the first round. Too much risk, not nearly enough reward.

As for taking a catcher in the 2008 draft. The Reds don't have a 2nd round pick and I wouldn't ever target a position with a given slot. If there's a catcher at the top of the team's board when a pick rolls around, then that's when I'd take a catcher.

[dougdirt]

I tried not to bash the pick too much, but I thought taking a HS catcher from central PA at that spot likely was a disastrous decision. I didn't think he had any business getting selected in the first round. Too much risk, not nearly enough reward.

A good hitting catcher with great defensive skills isn't enough reward?

[Kingspoint]

Drafting a catcher with a pick we don't have is gonna be tough to do...........
(see Francisco Cordero)

Did we gain any compensatory picks ourselves? Then 3rd Round, I guess, unless there is a catcher in the 1st Round worthy of our 1st pick.

[Kingspoint]

A good hitting catcher with great defensive skills isn't enough reward?

DG, is that how the organization views Mesoraco?...that he has great defensive skills "potential"? I thought I'd heard that was his weakness, but I know you'd know, so what have you heard?

[REDblooded]

Part of the reason they took Mesoraco was to address an organizational need, but the other reason was because he signed for under slot.... That was important because of their two supplemental picks which produced Todd Frazier and Kyle Lotzkar.

[REDblooded]

DG, is that how the organization views Mesoraco?...that he has great defensive skills "potential"? I thought I'd heard that was his weakness, but I know you'd know, so what have you heard?



http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/tracker.jsp?mc=mesoraco

[Kingspoint]

It could also be that the REDS need to undo what his father taught him, and that may be more difficult than they thought it was. You know how dad's can be about insisting their way is the only way.

[Kingspoint]

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2007/tracker.jsp?mc=mesoraco


That makes him sound like the second-coming of Johnny Bench, which clearly he's not. They need to reevaluate how they assess their players because clearly they missed something. A guy who's as good as they say he is doens't OPS .580 in the GCL league as a 19-year old.

The REDS must have seen the instincts that they speak of here or it would have been an odd pick to have made.

[Kingspoint]

Focus Area Comments
Hitting Ability: Mesoraco has a ton of hitting ability, using a little leg kick in his approach, and doesn't swing at bad pitches.
Power: Mesoraco has plus power. Right now, it's more pull power, but eventually he'll develop power to all fields.
Running Speed: He's a fringy-average runner, which is pretty good for a catcher.
Arm Strength: He has a plus arm and isn't afraid to use it in pick-off attempts.
Arm Accuracy: His throws are always right on the money.
Fielding: Mesoraco has plus hands behind the plate.
Range: A terrific athlete, Mesoraco is outstanding at blocking balls in the dirt.
Baseball Instincts: Off the charts. He's got great makeup, he's very aggressive and he's a natural leader behind the plate.
Physical Description: Mesoraco is a strong backstop with a body type that might remind some of a Joe Girardi or Ivan Rodriguez.
Medical Update: Mesoraco missed much of 2006 following Tommy John surgery, but now is completely healthy and clearly is having no problems with his throwing.
Strengths: He's a complete package. He can hit with power and he can play defense with a strong arm and soft hands.
Weaknesses: He tends to get out on his front foot on his swing from time to time.
Summary: Mesoraco has answered any questions about his arm following Tommy John surgery a year ago and is on the rise among catching prospects. He's a complete catching package, with hitting ability, power, good hands, a plus arm and outstanding leadership ability.

[dougdirt]

DG, is that how the organization views Mesoraco?...that he has great defensive skills "potential"? I thought I'd heard that was his weakness, but I know you'd know, so what have you heard?

Defense is the strong point of his game. He has a 'laser rocket arm' with accuracy. He covers the plate well and has good receiving skills. He has above average bat speed at the plate and a strong understanding of the strikezone. Last year he was playing with two injured thumbs (ever tried to hit a baseball, much less 90 MPH baseballs with just 1 injured thumb) and it showed up in his offensive game.


Part of the reason they took Mesoraco was to address an organizational need, but the other reason was because he signed for under slot.... That was important because of their two supplemental picks which produced Todd Frazier and Kyle Lotzkar.
No he didn't. He signed for $40,000 less than the guy after him.... so sure, it was 'under slot' but by an amount that is so trivial I have a real hard time saying it was under slot. That $40,000 wasn't going to stop the Reds from taking Frazier or Lotzkar.

Beau Mills is a guy who signed for under slot. The guy before him and after him got 225,000 and 125,000 more than he did.

[dougdirt]

That makes him sound like the second-coming of Johnny Bench, which clearly he's not. They need to reevaluate how they assess their players because clearly they missed something. A guy who's as good as they say he is doens't OPS .580 in the GCL league as a 19-year old.

The REDS must have seen the instincts that they speak of here or it would have been an odd pick to have made.

Try hitting a baseball with two injured thumbs and see how well you do. Thats what the kid was doing all summer.

[Kingspoint]

When does the GCL season begin?

[Kingspoint]

Try hitting a baseball with two injured thumbs and see how well you do. Thats what the kid was doing all summer.

So, last season was a wash, and he's starting over.

[dougdirt]

So, last season was a wash, and he's starting over.

He won't start in the GCL. The GCL and Billings rosters aren't up to date at all because they don't matter right now. Rookie ball season begins in mid to late June.

[lollipopcurve]

Now, the other question.....Do we draft a Catcher with our 2nd Round pick?

The Reds don't have a 2nd rounder this year (lost when they signed Cordero). I'd hope they're looking seriously at 2 catchers for their 1st round pick -- both Buster Posey and Kyle Skipworth are getting very good press so far. Both are being talked about as possible top 10 picks. Having a homegrown, above average catcher is a real nice advantage for a team these days. Folks will hate the pick, I'm pretty sure, but that's the draft.....

[Benihana]

Derek Jeter springs immediately to mind.

Jeter was in A ball halfway through his first season. Mesoraco is repeating Rookie ball in his second season. Jeter was also in AAA before his 21st birthday. I don't really see that happening with Devin.

Devin was a bad pick IMO, but hopefully he can prove me wrong. Like I said however, if he isn't dominating once the Rookie league season starts...

[Kingspoint]

He won't start in the GCL. The GCL and Billings rosters aren't up to date at all because they don't matter right now. Rookie ball season begins in mid to late June.


So, he'll replace one of these two from Billings or just be added to them?


Catchers (click column headers to sort)
Num Name Pos Bat Thw Ht Wt Age DOB Status 40-man MLB
15 Tyler Hauschild C R R 6' 0" 210 22 11-24-1985 Active No
29 Francis Meade C R R 6' 1" 215 22 09-27-1985 Active No

[Kingspoint]

The REDS have 5 catchers listed on the GCL REDS, so it does make sense that Mesoraco will not be on it whenever he can get to Billings....

What's holding him up?

Here are the Catchers on the GCL REDS...

Catchers (click column headers to sort)
Num Name Pos Bat Thw Ht Wt Age DOB Status 40-man MLB
53 Petr Cech C L R 5' 10" 185 20 10-13-1987 Active No
Fernando Encarnacion C R R 6' 0" 185 22 07-23-1985 Active No
37 Devin Mesoraco C R R 6' 1" 200 19 06-19-1988 Active No
59 Todd Waller C R R 6' 1" 195 20 04-26-1987 Active No
38 Jordan Wideman C R R 5' 11" 200 19 03-14-1989 Active No

[Kingspoint]

BTW, any REDS' fans in Billings who can report on their games by going to them?

[dougdirt]

That is last years roster. It means absolutely nothing. The Reds will probably draft 2 or 3 more catchers this year and have them in the GCL.

[Kingspoint]

That is last years roster. It means absolutely nothing. The Reds will probably draft 2 or 3 more catchers this year and have them in the GCL.


So, are you saying that the GCL REDS and Billings REDS are currently listing players on the roster (the link that the Cincinnati REDS use) that aren't on their roster, and that the Dayton Dragons have players listed on their roster that also are listed on the Billings roster because as you say, the Billings roster is last year's roster, too?

[M2]

A good hitting catcher with great defensive skills isn't enough reward?

Not when you take into account that he's not really that good a hitter. We've been over this before, Mesoraco's skills are all relative. He had plus skills "for a catcher." That's low reward. If he had plus hitting, power and speed for an OF and he played catcher, then I'd see where the big reward is. Thing is, he doesn't and he's not even particularly close in any of those categories.

He's a kid with a strong arm whose other talents were made to look better than they are against weak and younger competition. It's the classic formula for a catcher overdraft.

Had the Reds landed him two or three rounds later, I'd have a much different take. Then I'd say the reward justified the risk, but with the #15 pick it's like buying a lottery ticket in the hopes that you can win a lottery ticket. HS catcher from central PA. No matter how many times you say it, it never sounds good.

[Kingspoint]

Looking at the Dayton, Billings and GCL rosters, the Dayton roster is correct and anyone who was on Billings last year has had their names removed. The Billings roster hasn't been determined yet, apparently, and of course, neither has GCL.

When does Billings begin play?

[OnBaseMachine]

Billings and the GCL Reds begin in mid-June.

[dougdirt]

Not when you take into account that he's not really that good a hitter. We've been over this before, Mesoraco's skills are all relative. He had plus skills "for a catcher." That's low reward. If he had plus hitting, power and speed for an OF and he played catcher, then I'd see where the big reward is. Thing is, he doesn't and he's not even particularly close in any of those categories.
He has bat speed (for any and all positions), power potential (for his position) and a very strong understanding of the strikezone (for any and all positions). Speed wise, he isn't slow. He isn't fast, but he isn't slow.

Frankly, if he plays catcher, shouldn't his tools be rated as a catcher? Catchers don't have to hit like corner infielders or outfielders, so why should their tools be compared? That doesn't make sense. If Mesoraco is a good hitting catcher with great defense, how is it low reward 'just because he is a catcher'?

[Kingspoint]

Billings doesn't begin until mid-June?

A #1 pick needs to be playing baseball in April and May of his 2nd year even if he struggles there.

[dougdirt]

So, are you saying that the GCL REDS and Billings REDS are currently listing players on the roster (the link that the Cincinnati REDS use) that aren't on their roster, and that the Dayton Dragons have players listed on their roster that also are listed on the Billings roster because as you say, the Billings roster is last year's roster, too?

I am saying the only rosters that are up to date are Dayton, Sarasota, Chattanooga and Louisville. The only thing done to the GCL and Billings roster is that players assigned to other clubs have been removed.

[dougdirt]

Billings doesn't begin until mid-June?

A #1 pick needs to be playing baseball in April and May of his 2nd year even if he struggles there.

He is playing baseball, we just don't get to see or hear about it. The guys down there practice every day and play games against other extended spring training teams.

[Kingspoint]

That's good to hear, Doug.

Krivsky did well drafting catching at Minnesota.

Let's hope he does as well here.

[M2]

He has bat speed (for any and all positions), power potential (for his position) and a very strong understanding of the strikezone (for any and all positions).

Maybe he has the latter. Maybe. If he truly had plus hitting skills and power, he'd be in Dayton right now.


Frankly, if he plays catcher, shouldn't his tools be rated as a catcher?

They don't play baseball on a curve. A hit is a hit and an out is an out. I suppose you could grade prospects on a "for a catcher" scale if you wanted to make bad draft picks.


Catchers don't have to hit like corner infielders or outfielders, so why should their tools be compared? That doesn't make sense. If Mesoraco is a good hitting catcher with great defense, how is it low reward 'just because he is a catcher'?

If you want a "for a catcher" player, then pick him in a "for a catcher" slot. What doesn't make sense is acknowledging that a guy really isn't all that good compared to the wider pool of players and then drafting him like he is.

Frankly, I don't think you understand the concept of reward or risk. Given the risk on Mesoraco (and it's massive), then his reward needs to be that he can be a very good major league hitter - not "for a catcher," for any position. If Mesoraco's only going to be a good hitter "for a catcher," then it's not nearly enough reward.

Plus, you're pretending he's a good hitter. He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else. You're hardly alone. Scouts have been pretending kids with big arms behind the plate are better hitters than they are since the birth of scouting.

[lollipopcurve]

He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else.

To be fair, Mesaraco was on the showcase circuit. That's why he started shooting up the prospect charts.

[Kingspoint]

To be fair, Mesaraco was on the showcase circuit. That's why he started shooting up the prospect charts.

At some point in his life he was held back a year in school. He turned 19 on June 18th, while the rest of his High School class and everyone else who graduated in school in the United States that year that also had June birthdays turned 18 in June.

So, every year in High School he was one year older than those that he played against. That's a huge advantage at that age. (my birthday's in June, so I'm very aware of it)

That should have been a red flag when thinking about drafting him. And also, he didn't just struggle at GCL last year....he sucked big time.

[M2]

To be fair, Mesaraco was on the showcase circuit. That's why he started shooting up the prospect charts.

IIRC, he got very little showcase time and didn't exactly shine when he did. Also, wasn't a good bit of his "showcase" inside his region?

[RedlegJake]

I'm with Doug on this one. The kid was playing his first year away from home, he was injured, he won't start in the GCL, he's a better hitting prospect than M2 wants to believe and I won't call him a good or bad pick until after this season has played out. About the only thing I agree with M2 about on this one is the risk was beyond what I'd like to see in a #15 pick. There were better options available for that slot, frankly. That doesn't demean what Mesarasco could become, however. And as lollipop curve points out Mes shot up the charts because he hit well in the showcase circuit which is a much higher competition level than just "central PA HS kids".

[Kingspoint]

I thought it was a horrible pick at the time, and I still do. I don't believe he'll reach the Majors.

[lollipopcurve]

IIRC, he got very little showcase time and didn't exactly shine when he did. Also, wasn't a good bit of his "showcase" inside his region?

I don't know the details of how much showcase time he had -- it's probable at least some of that was local, meaning the northeast or midwest. Still, I wanted to clarify that he hadn't been evaluated only against smalltown PA competition.

[dougdirt]

Maybe he has the latter. Maybe. If he truly had plus hitting skills and power, he'd be in Dayton right now.
Or there are other reasons for his being held back.




They don't play baseball on a curve. A hit is a hit and an out is an out. I suppose you could grade prospects on a "for a catcher" scale if you wanted to make bad draft picks.
Expecting a catcher, or SS or 2B or CFer to hit like a first basemen is going to leave you with a ton of disappointment because those that do go to the HOF.



If you want a "for a catcher" player, then pick him in a "for a catcher" slot. What doesn't make sense is acknowledging that a guy really isn't all that good compared to the wider pool of players and then drafting him like he is. Everyone in baseball rated him as a first round talent. I didn't like the pick at the time because catchers flop more than any type of prospect, but compared to a wider pool of players, everyone in baseball said this kid is a first round talent.



Frankly, I don't think you understand the concept of reward or risk. Given the risk on Mesoraco (and it's massive), then his reward needs to be that he can be a very good major league hitter - not "for a catcher," for any position. If Mesoraco's only going to be a good hitter "for a catcher," then it's not nearly enough reward.
So any catcher in the first round better turn out to be Johnny Bench or its not worth drafting him? Having one of the best 5 hitting catchers in baseball who also ranks among the best defensive catchers in baseball is beyond value.



Plus, you're pretending he's a good hitter. He's a good hitter against HS kids in central PA when he's a year or two or three older than everybody else. You're hardly alone. Scouts have been pretending kids with big arms behind the plate are better hitters than they are since the birth of scouting.

No, I am not pretending he is a good hitter. You are pretending that where he is from and because he won't hit like Frank Thomas means he was a bad draft pick.

[HBP]

Brian McCann had an OPS of .625 when he played in the GCL, obviously the Braves should've cut him.

Russell Martin started his second season at Rookie ball in the Pioneer league, horrible player.

Jason Kendall hit .261 his rookie year, a sign of things to come.

[M2]

Or there are other reasons for his being held back.

Like what? Supposedly he's dynamite behind the plate and he's got a great attitude. If he can hit too then what possible explanation is there? It damn sure isn't that Jason Bour's got to play.


Expecting a catcher, or SS or 2B or CFer to hit like a first basemen is going to leave you with a ton of disappointment because those that do go to the HOF.

I expect a 1st round draft pick to hit like a 1st round draft and, if he doesn't, then I wouldn't waste a 1st round draft pick on him. That goes for any position.


Everyone in baseball rated him as a first round talent. I didn't like the pick at the time because catchers flop more than any type of prospect, but compared to a wider pool of players, everyone in baseball said this kid is a first round talent.

Oh, I guarantee you a few teams did a happy dance when the Reds picked Mesoraco, figuring there was a guy they weren't going to touch with a 10-foot pole off the board.


So any catcher in the first round better turn out to be Johnny Bench or its not worth drafting him? Having one of the best 5 hitting catchers in baseball who also ranks among the best defensive catchers in baseball is beyond value.

"One of the 5 best hitting catchers in baseball" is pure fantasy. Seriously, say hi to the hobbits for me. I mean, maybe Mesoraco has an extremely narrow chance of doing that for some limited period of time, but let's not pretend it's anything near likely.

You want to burn a first round pick on a catcher? Tell me he's got a good chance to hit like Ted Simmons or Jorge Posada. Mesoraco's more like a good chance to hit like Terry Steinbach, who was a decent enough player, but for a #15 overall pick? No thank you.

"Value" and "reward" ought not to be based on extreme remote possibilities.


No, I am not pretending he is a good hitter. You are pretending that where he is from and because he won't hit like Frank Thomas means he was a bad draft pick.

Amazing. Somehow you can say "I didn't like the pick at the time because catchers flop more than any type of prospect" and then ignore the vast array of reasons why that's true.

Reason 1A - Everyone pretends they're better hitters than they are.
Reason 1B - Scouts have an unnatural love for a big arm behind the plate (I value it, but an arm does not a player make).

There's plenty of others, but those are the two that almost always crop up when HS catchers go bad.

[dougdirt]

Mesoraco has all the skills to hit the ball. Bat speed, no glaring holes in his swing, good contact rates and a good understanding of the strikezone. Just because he struggled to hit in the GCL while playing with two injured hands doesn't change the fact that everything in his offensive game suggests he is going to hit.

[Kingspoint]

Let us hope he stays healthy for the entire season and gets some playing time in Winterball, too.

[dougdirt]

Let us hope he stays healthy for the entire season and gets some playing time in Winterball, too.

He won't play any winterball. They won't send him to the AFL or HWL and they most certainly won't send him to another country to play this early in his career.

[SarasotaFan]

agreed - he's not going to winterball. probably back to instructs

[Caveat Emperor]

Just because he struggled to hit in the GCL while playing with two injured hands doesn't change the fact that everything in his offensive game suggests he is going to hit.

Mesoraco's 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.
Stubbs' 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.
Bailey's 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.

I'm noticing a distinct pattern to your talent evaluations here.

[dougdirt]

Mesoraco's 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.
Stubbs' 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.
Bailey's 2007 season: Don't pay attention, he was injured.

I'm noticing a distinct pattern to your talent evaluations here.

Yeah, the part where unless its an injury thats going to affect future performance (IE: Hamate bone injuries for hitters, TJ/Shoulder injuries for pitchers, knee injuries for catchers) then I don't worry much about their stats until the next year.

[gedred69]

All I know is Mesoraco was indeed less than healthy last year. I give him this year to pass judgement. (I expect that to be at Billings, whose season begins 6/17 BTW). What I want to know is, can anyone explain what's up with Cech? He started the season strong at the plate at least, and then seemingly quit playing. Was he hurt? Did he get homesick or something? Anybody from Sarasota know what's up?

[TN Red Fan]

Frankly, I don't think you understand the concept of reward or risk. Given the risk on Mesoraco (and it's massive), then his reward needs to be that he can be a very good major league hitter - not "for a catcher," for any position. If Mesoraco's only going to be a good hitter "for a catcher," then it's not nearly enough reward.


I don't get this logic. You have to have a catcher. If Joe Mauer has an OPS thats 100 points higher than David Ross, isn't that the same value as Albert Pujols having an OPS 100 points higher than Griffey, even though Mauer isn't near the hitter Pujols is?

[SMcGavin]

I don't get this logic. You have to have a catcher. If Joe Mauer has an OPS thats 100 points higher than David Ross, isn't that the same value as Albert Pujols having an OPS 100 points higher than Griffey, even though Mauer isn't near the hitter Pujols is?

I tend to agree, although I'd compare Pujols to Votto (his position) instead of Griffey. It's the reason I've come around on the value of Brandon Phillips. Despite all his flaws as a hitter he is still quite a bit better than his positional peers. So I'd say the hitting bar that Mesoraco must clear to become a successful draft pick is lower than it would be at another position.

[SteelSD]

I don't get this logic. You have to have a catcher. If Joe Mauer has an OPS thats 100 points higher than David Ross, isn't that the same value as Albert Pujols having an OPS 100 points higher than Griffey, even though Mauer isn't near the hitter Pujols is?

Actually, a Catcher who puts up a 100 point diff versus your average Catcher is more valuable than a 1B who does the same based on position.

However, I'm not sure that's really the point when it comes to such a young Catching prospect. Teenage Catchers are a lot like young Shortstops in that many end up being forced off the position due to the defensive difficulty involved. And even more advanced Catchers reported to have "MLB" defensive ability when drafted (see: Sardinha, Dane) wash out if they don't project to hit.

To protect against potential positional move, a teenage Catcher drafted that early better project to hit well regardless of position- especially if said Catcher has already had Tommy John surgery and hand issues. Seriously, the hand issues concern me and although TJ surgery certainly isn't a death knell, it's still an item of interest.

Our own JinAZ posted his thoughts on the trade at his web site and even cited BP's Rany Jazayerli's examples of how HS Catcher picks have produced much better value from 1992 through 1999 than they did from 1984 to 1991. The examples cited were Jason Kendall, A.J. Pierzynski, Paul Konerko, and Justin Morneau. Yet only two of those players actually made the Show still at the Catcher position. Only one did it after being drafted prior to the second round. Here's how the Catchers drafted prior to the 2nd round broke down from 1992 through 1999:

Year: Player (Pick#) <College/HS>:

1992: Jason Kendall (#23) <HS>
1992: Charles Johnson (#28) <College>
1994: Paul Konerko (#13) <HS>
1994: Jason Varitek (#14) <College>
1994: Ramon Castro (#17) <HS>
1994: Mark Johnson (#26) <HS>
1995: Ben Davis (#4) <HS>
1997: Jayson Werth (#22) <HS>
1997: Matt LeCroy (#50) <College>
1998: Jeff Winchester (#40) <HS>
1999: Eric Munson (#3) <College>
1999: Ryan Christianson (#11) <HS>
1999: Nick Trzesniak (#51) <HS>

Total High School Catchers Drafted: 9
Total College Catchers Drafted: 4

From that list, the only pre-2nd Round HS Catcher who's really made good in the Show at the Catcher was Kendall, who was drafted in 1992. That's a success rate of 11&#37;. Even if we add Mauer we're only at 20%. Of the College catchers, 50% have produced solid careers (C. Johnson, Varitek), but Jeff Clement has a decent chance of pushing the College group to a 60% success rate. Yet Mauer was a #1 pick and Clement a #3 selection in their respective first rounds. Right now Mauer is the only High School Catcher I know of drafted in the first fifteen picks who's done anything of note in the Show as a Catcher during the period of review.

In the end, drafting a Catcher prior to the second round isn't a good idea and it appears to be a horrible idea if you're taking one at pick 15 regardless of whether they're a HS or College player. They appear to be consistently over-drafted, much like HS pitchers who aren't obviously the best arm in the draft who are taken in the top 10.

If the Reds used the 15th pick in the draft, considering that team draft boards never run in sync, I'd suggest that the Reds had Mesaraco much higher on their own draft board. And that's kind of a tragedy especially after they passed on Tim Lincecum the year before to select an "if he hits" Center Fielder.

[mlbfan30]

I don't have much to say but....

You know how Bowden loved those toolsy players and just tried to load the system with them. I think it's a bad idea to base your future on tools. Some will pan out, but they're called toolsy because they have a lot of flaws and a lot of work needed to be done. A balance of tools and polish is needed. I'm against taking any "toolsy" top round pick unless those tools largely outweigh the polish player. I'm not even talking about HS vs. College. Give me a control GB pitcher with moderate K rates over a 100MPH flamethrower with a violent delivery and a 2:1 K:BB ratio. Another thing is while polish is good, upside has to be considered. Mesaraco appears to have some polish in his game. At the very least he's a very solid defensive catcher so we don't have to worry about that. It's way too early to tell. Stubbs was a horrible pick though, not just because of Lincicum. Not only is Stubbs basically mostly tools, he's also a college player. At least the org can work with Mes for 3-4 years just to reach the age where Stubbs was drafted. Stubbs has limited upside and is already past his development where he can easily make the major changes he needs to make. If the organization is run well, I'd rather mold a toolsy HS pick than a toolsy college pick.

[SarasotaFan]

so how long do you guys think they will move Mesoraco from behind the dish if he doesn't pan out ?

[RedlegJake]

so how long do you guys think they will move Mesoraco from behind the dish if he doesn't pan out ?

I don't think that's even in the plans at this point. Mesaraco will either make it as a catcher or I'm guessing he won't make it at all.

I also think he can't be evaluated yet unless you saw him day in and day out last summer. His stats don't tell you much at all because he was injured and a first year HS draftee. If he's in Billings, which I expect, then the Reds feel he is progressing. If he repeats in the GCL then that's likely a trouble sign.

I defended him as a player earlier in this thread, but I agree he was poor pick at #15. Now the Reds have him, I just think the pick argument is moot. Now it's all about him succeeding or not.

[gedred69]

so how long do you guys think they will move Mesoraco from behind the dish if he doesn't pan out ?

Everything else aside if I may, can you shed some light on what happened to Petr Cech last year? In limited ABs and appearances early, his numbers were all over Mesoraco, then he seemed to disappear. Hurt? Homesick? Flop?

[SarasotaFan]

Everything else aside if I may, can you shed some light on what happened to Petr Cech last year? In limited ABs and appearances early, his numbers were all over Mesoraco, then he seemed to disappear. Hurt? Homesick? Flop?
I heard through the grapevine he had surgery. I'll see if I can find more specific details.

[Kingspoint]

At this point, if he did as well as Charles Johnson, I'd take that. At this point, I don't see it happening.

[dougdirt]

At this point, if he did as well as Charles Johnson, I'd take that. At this point, I don't see it happening.

So after half a season you have all but given up on him?

I know we are in an instant gratification society these days but thats a lot of giving up.

[Kingspoint]

So after half a season you have all but given up on him?

I know we are in an instant gratification society these days but thats a lot of giving up.


I never liked the pick one iota to begin with, and I haven't seen anything that has shown me a glimpse that it was worth it. I don't want it to take 7-9 years for a #15 pick to reach the Majors where he's productive at the Major League level, and that's what it's looking like at this point is his "upside". I want a #15 pick to be knocking on the door at least in his 5th year, and if he was a college player, then in his 3rd year.

Good luck to him.

[Screwball]

Yeah, Mesoraco didn't hit well in his first half-season of pro ball, but from what I remember he was very good defensively. Given that he's playing a defensively-oriented position, I think that should be noted and looked at more often than it has been by some. Factor in that he did it with two bad thumbs, and it's even more cause for optimism.

[TOBTTReds]

Word on the street is that his hitting is ahead of his catching right now.

[redsmetz]

I never liked the pick one iota to begin with, and I haven't seen anything that has shown me a glimpse that it was worth it. I don't want it to take 7-9 years for a #15 pick to reach the Majors where he's productive at the Major League level, and that's what it's looking like at this point is his "upside". I want a #15 pick to be knocking on the door at least in his 5th year, and if he was a college player, then in his 3rd year.

Good luck to him.

I have no idea what the norm is, but I don't think it's a failed pick if he takes a fairly normal route to the ML's.

Is this an unreasonable progression?

2007 GCL
2008 Billings/Dayton
2009 Sarasota
2010 Sarasota/Chattanooga
2011 Chattanooga/Louisville
2012 Louisville/Cincinnati

That's not dissimilar to the route Votto took:

2002 GCL
2003 Billings/Dayton
2004 Dayton/Potomac (A+)
2005 Sarasota
2006 Chattanooga
2007 Louisville/Cincinnati

[Kingspoint]

I have no idea what the norm is, but I don't think it's a failed pick if he takes a fairly normal route to the ML's.

Is this an unreasonable progression?

2007 GCL
2008 Billings/Dayton
2009 Sarasota
2010 Sarasota/Chattanooga
2011 Chattanooga/Louisville
2012 Louisville/Cincinnati

That's not dissimilar to the route Votto took:

2002 GCL
2003 Billings/Dayton
2004 Dayton/Potomac (A+)
2005 Sarasota
2006 Chattanooga
2007 Louisville/Cincinnati

If he does that, it'd be great. He'd be contributing significantly in 2013, 6 years after he was drafted.

[TRF]

I have no idea what the norm is, but I don't think it's a failed pick if he takes a fairly normal route to the ML's.

Is this an unreasonable progression?

2007 GCL
2008 Billings/Dayton
2009 Sarasota
2010 Sarasota/Chattanooga
2011 Chattanooga/Louisville
2012 Louisville/Cincinnati

That's not dissimilar to the route Votto took:

2002 GCL
2003 Billings/Dayton
2004 Dayton/Potomac (A+)
2005 Sarasota
2006 Chattanooga
2007 Louisville/Cincinnati

For a HS pick, I agree, this is a very reasonable time frame. I don't know if Mesaraco was the right pick, but that's 2 1st rd. picks that have started with injury issues. And both are "raw" talents (though why a guy with 3 years at a Big 12 school is considered raw is beyond me).

[SarasotaFan]

Yeah but how long was Votto a catcher before they moved him out from behind the plate ?

[OnBaseMachine]

Yeah but how long was Votto a catcher before they moved him out from behind the plate ?

Not very long. Maybe 15 games at the most. Votto was never considered a serious catching prospect. The Reds drafted him for his bat with the intent of shifting him to first base. He also played a little third base IIRC. Mesoraco on the other hand is considered a very good defensive catcher.

[redsmetz]

Not very long. Maybe 15 games at the most. Votto was never considered a serious catching prospect. The Reds drafted him for his bat with the intent of shifting him to first base. He also played a little third base IIRC. Mesoraco on the other hand is considered a very good defensive catcher.

His first season, he played seven games at Catcher, 18 games at 3rd and three games in the outfield, none at 1st base. After that, he played 1st base exclusively until last year, when he got time in the outfield both at Louisville and Cincinnati.

[Blitz Dorsey]

It's not like there was another obvious pick on the board when the Reds took Mesoraco at No. 15 last year. We're not talking about 2006 when Krivsky goofed and took Stubbs with an obvious pick like Lincecum staring him right in the face. No doubt poor drafts is one of the reasons Kriv was canned. I bet Castellini isn't thrilled about whatever he's paying Drew Stubbs to be a decent high-A player, while Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in the NL.

As for Mesoraco, I'm willing to give him this year to see what he can do. I kind of like havng a young catcher with high upside in the system. It's not like we've burned a lot of high picks on catchers in recent years. In fact, Mesoraco marked the first time the Reds took a catcher in the first round since Dan Wilson in 1990. It's going to take a few years, but Mesoraco is going to make it to the big leagues. No clue how good he'll be though. Maybe Mesoraco won't peak until he's 36 like Paul Bako, but I think it will be well before that ;-)

[SarasotaFan]

There's always other "obvious" picks....

You have a lot of faith on him making it to the big leagues. I'd be happy to see him make it to Billings this year and then we'll go from there.. :)

[Blitz Dorsey]

Have you seen some of the catchers around MLB? I am referring to most of them actually. Just look at some of the catchers we've carried over the years. It doesn't take much to make it in the MLB as a catcher and I have no doubt a former first-round pick like Mesoraco will make it. Barring injury, he is going to put up enough stats offensive (and will be good enough defensively) to make it to the big leagues and at least get a look. My only question is will he be good, average, bad, just get a cup of coffee, etc...

Or will he make a deal with the devil, have a few solid years, and then suddenly become the worst catcher in MLB history like Jason LaRue. These are pressing questions.

[dougdirt]

It's not like there was another obvious pick on the board when the Reds took Mesoraco at No. 15 last year. We're not talking about 2006 when Krivsky goofed and took Stubbs with an obvious pick like Lincecum staring him right in the face. No doubt poor drafts is one of the reasons Kriv was canned. I bet Castellini isn't thrilled about whatever he's paying Drew Stubbs to be a decent high-A player, while Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in the NL.


I continue to wonder how a guy with a 5.50 BB/9 rate in college was some slam dunk pick while Drew Stubbs was the biggest reach in the history of the draft..... Tim turned things around real quick, but I still don't get how everyone knew his extremely bad control was behind him. Maybe thats just my thinking though.

[Kingspoint]

I continue to wonder how a guy with a 5.50 BB/9 rate in college was some slam dunk pick while Drew Stubbs was the biggest reach in the history of the draft..... Tim turned things around real quick, but I still don't get how everyone knew his extremely bad control was behind him. Maybe thats just my thinking though.


They didn't. Seven clubs took pitchers before him that aren't doing very well.

[PuffyPig]

I bet Castellini isn't thrilled about whatever he's paying Drew Stubbs to be a decent high-A player, while Lincecum is one of the best pitchers in the NL.




You do understand that Stubbs was rated Top 100 by BA last year, and is likely much better this year?

[HokieRed]

I have to agree with Doug. Lincecum would have been a good pick, but there are still things to be worried about with him and Stubbs is in the process of having a terrific season, one I have predicted all along with find him finishing the year in Louisville. To say Lincecum would have been a good pick is one thing; to say that he was obviously the better pick than Stubbs is quite another and it's not at all clear yet that it will prove out that way.

[Grande Donkey]

Any reports on how Mesoraco is doing in extended spring training?

[TRF]

It may have been that his BB rate in college dropped three straight years, while hi K/9 was in double digits during that span. It may have been that he was considered major league ready, or close to it, and the Reds had a craptastic rotation and almost no SP depth at the time.

That MAY have been why the Stubbs pick was a bad one. I'm thrilled he's hitting now, but rotation of Harang, Lincecum, Cueto, Arroyo with Bailey on the way means the Reds likely don't trade Hamilton. I love EV in the rotation, but Lincecum would balance that and give the Reds 2 tremendous young talents in the OF, Bruce Hamilton.

[dougdirt]

It may have been that his BB rate in college dropped three straight years, while hi K/9 was in double digits during that span. It may have been that he was considered major league ready, or close to it, and the Reds had a craptastic rotation and almost no SP depth at the time.

That MAY have been why the Stubbs pick was a bad one. I'm thrilled he's hitting now, but rotation of Harang, Lincecum, Cueto, Arroyo with Bailey on the way means the Reds likely don't trade Hamilton. I love EV in the rotation, but Lincecum would balance that and give the Reds 2 tremendous young talents in the OF, Bruce Hamilton.

Sure, but to pretend Lincecum was a slam dunk pick doesn't work.
He was 5'10 155 pounds soaking wet. Had some serious control issues. Strange mechanics and release point issues.

Kid had and still has ridiculous talent, but its not like David Price was on the board for us or something.

[TRF]

He was the best player available AND filled a need. That makes it a no-brainer.

[dougdirt]

He was the best player available AND filled a need. That makes it a no-brainer.

Except at the time I am not sure he was the BPA. In hindsight that may be true (although maybe not, Joba Chamberlain could make a great argument for that as well), but hindsight is just that.

[edabbs44]

You do understand that Stubbs was rated Top 100 by BA last year, and is likely much better this year?

100th, to be exact. And that had more to do with his pre-draft scouting report than his performance in the minors.

[dougdirt]

100th, to be exact. And that had more to do with his pre-draft scouting report than his performance in the minors.

True to an extent, but that ranking looks awfully justified, if not low at this point in time.

[TRF]

True to an extent, but that ranking looks awfully justified, if not low at this point in time.

Yeah? What was Lincecum's? for the very short time he was in the minors, top 50? higher?

[dougdirt]

Yeah? What was Lincecum's? for the very short time he was in the minors, top 50? higher?

Between 15-30 depending where you looked. That still doesn't have much to do with the topic at hand though that Lincecum wasn't some slam dunk, no doubt David Price is sitting there type choice.

[edabbs44]

True to an extent, but that ranking looks awfully justified, if not low at this point in time.

Time will tell on that. He is still only in High A. If he is putting up numbers in AA then I will start to take notice.

[edabbs44]

Between 15-30 depending where you looked. That still doesn't have much to do with the topic at hand though that Lincecum wasn't some slam dunk, no doubt David Price is sitting there type choice.

The guy I wanted in that draft (at the time) just got the call: Max Scherzer.

[IslandRed]

I'm trying to remember if there's ever been a thread about Devin Mesaraco that wasn't hijacked into a Drew Stubbs vs. Tim Lincecum thread. :p:

[dougdirt]

I'm trying to remember if there's ever been a thread about Devin Mesaraco that wasn't hijacked into a Drew Stubbs vs. Tim Lincecum thread. :p:

It probably happened because no one knows who Devin Mesaraco is. Is he related to Reds catching prospect Devin Mesoraco? :D

[IslandRed]

It probably happened because no one knows who Devin Mesaraco is. Is he related to Reds catching prospect Devin Mesoraco? :D

Typo on my part. I should know better. :p: