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BCubb2003
04-12-2008, 01:26 PM
It seems to me that high LOB numbers point to the limitations of the otherwise valuable OBP stat. A team can have several innings a game with runners on base, adding to the OBP, while leading to nothing. The assumption is that if you just keep getting on base, you'll score runs. It tends to work out that way, but lineup construction can work against that, if you're gettng on base for Castro to drive you in.

WMR
04-12-2008, 01:43 PM
Dunn batting fifth is one asinine part of this equation.

RedsManRick
04-12-2008, 01:58 PM
Exactly. When you get good OBP and you don't get runs, you should be placing the blame on the guys not driving them in, not the guys getting on base. When you put 2 of your 3 best OBP guys behind your avg/power guys, what do you expect? Look no further than Corey Patterson's 4 solo homers to understand the impact of an upside down batting order.

KronoRed
04-12-2008, 02:00 PM
Dunn batting fifth is one asinine part of this equation.

Even Narron moved him up vs righties.

Caveat Emperor
04-12-2008, 02:33 PM
It seems to me that high LOB numbers point to the limitations of the otherwise valuable OBP stat. A team can have several innings a game with runners on base, adding to the OBP, while leading to nothing. The assumption is that if you just keep getting on base, you'll score runs. It tends to work out that way, but lineup construction can work against that, if you're gettng on base for Castro to drive you in.

Which is why OBP is a good thing, but not the be-all and end-all of understanding run production.

OBP loads the sacks.
SLG brings 'em home.

reds44
04-12-2008, 02:35 PM
Dunn batting fifth is one asinine part of this equation.
Because he has shown he doesn't belong there so far this season.

WMR
04-12-2008, 02:39 PM
Because he has shown he doesn't belong there so far this season.

Or for his career.

Check his OBP.

There's a reason he's leading the NL in walks.

2 or 3 is where he should be.

Highlifeman21
04-12-2008, 05:09 PM
IMO, Dunn should bat 3rd or 4th.

Ever.

KronoRed
04-12-2008, 11:01 PM
Dunn 3rd, JR 4th, Phillips 5th.

Kc61
04-12-2008, 11:14 PM
Dunn 3rd, JR 4th, Phillips 5th.

That'll fix things, sure.

Dusty has no true leadoff hitter. Dunn and EE aren't hitting, killing rally after rally right now. The catcher doesn't hit. The entire offense is left handed. Phillips is a fine player, but not a cleanup hitter. They can't figure out who the first baseman is.

And folks think the batting order is the problem? Please. It's the personnel.

There is not a single all-star caliber hitter on this team. The team has been BA challenged for years. The offense is usually walks and homers. That's why they always lose in big stadiums out west, where you need to string hits together.

You can tinker with the batting order, sure. It's probably not ideal. But this offense lacks balance and needs better hitters. Some of the young guys, Votto, Bruce, Todd Frazier may help.

Aronchis
04-13-2008, 12:09 AM
Lets don't make things complicated. Dunn is slumping. When Dunn slumps, the Reds offense doesn't reach its potential.

Granted if EE would hit and Votto would stop the Casey routine, it would help, but Dunn's hitting is what makes the Reds offense go.

Highlifeman21
04-13-2008, 09:32 AM
That'll fix things, sure.

Dusty has no true leadoff hitter. Dunn and EE aren't hitting, killing rally after rally right now. The catcher doesn't hit. The entire offense is left handed. Phillips is a fine player, but not a cleanup hitter. They can't figure out who the first baseman is.

And folks think the batting order is the problem? Please. It's the personnel.

There is not a single all-star caliber hitter on this team. The team has been BA challenged for years. The offense is usually walks and homers. That's why they always lose in big stadiums out west, where you need to string hits together.

You can tinker with the batting order, sure. It's probably not ideal. But this offense lacks balance and needs better hitters. Some of the young guys, Votto, Bruce, Todd Frazier may help.

Can you clarify this statement? I want to make sure I understand your position before I attempt to debate the notion that we lack an all-star caliber hitter.

GAC
04-13-2008, 10:38 AM
It seems to me that high LOB numbers point to the limitations of the otherwise valuable OBP stat. A team can have several innings a game with runners on base, adding to the OBP, while leading to nothing.


Exactly. When you get good OBP and you don't get runs, you should be placing the blame on the guys not driving them in, not the guys getting on base. When you put 2 of your 3 best OBP guys behind your avg/power guys, what do you expect? Look no further than Corey Patterson's 4 solo homers to understand the impact of an upside down batting order.



OBP loads the sacks.
SLG brings 'em home.

Bingo gentlemen. And our SLG% is dismal right now.... team .399, and .386 w/ RISP. And a .248 team BA w/RISP.

Sea Ray
04-13-2008, 04:45 PM
Or for his career.

Check his OBP.

There's a reason he's leading the NL in walks.

2 or 3 is where he should be.


Adam Dunn is in that lineup to drive in runs. At the #5 position there should be plenty of opportunities to do that. His high OBP does not impress me if he doesn't drive in runs. If you're Ryan Freel then yes. I'd like to see a high OBP.

But Adam Dunn is not the highest paid player on this team just so he can draw 100 walks. When the bases are juiced he needs to do something to drive in a run in a game like last night. There's no blaming the batting order or pointing to his high OBP to get around that.

*BaseClogger*
04-13-2008, 05:41 PM
Adam Dunn is in that lineup to drive in runs. At the #5 position there should be plenty of opportunities to do that. His high OBP does not impress me if he doesn't drive in runs. If you're Ryan Freel then yes. I'd like to see a high OBP.

But Adam Dunn is not the highest paid player on this team just so he can draw 100 walks. When the bases are juiced he needs to do something to drive in a run in a game like last night. There's no blaming the batting order or pointing to his high OBP to get around that.

Who decided Dunn has to drive in so many runs? I'll take 100 RBI's with 120 Runs scored (which is how many he might get if he batted second). Why can't he just score them when he is in a slump, and drive them in when he gets going?

*BaseClogger*
04-13-2008, 05:42 PM
Dusty has no true leadoff hitter.

I'm gonna go ahead and toss out some bait--what is a true leadoff hitter?

cincrazy
04-13-2008, 05:46 PM
I'm gonna go ahead and toss out some bait--what is a true leadoff hitter?

Johnny Damon ;)

WVRedsFan
04-13-2008, 05:48 PM
I'm gonna go ahead and toss out some bait--what is a true leadoff hitter?

Take into consideration that I have no idea what the real students of the game will say (I'm just a fan), but I would guess someone who gets on base a lot, is speedy, and has base running skills. Patterson qualifies on at least one of those. He's speedy at least.

The other problem is the personnel on this club. After Patterson, you have a good hitter with little punch, an aging superstar who is now slumping, a guy who is too quick on the trigger and runs hot and cold, and a power hitter who strikes out a lot. Follow that up with a kid who just hasn't found it yet and you get what we have. Lots of runners LOB.

Highlifeman21
04-13-2008, 09:01 PM
I'm gonna go ahead and toss out some bait--what is a true leadoff hitter?

Rickey Henderson

*BaseClogger*
04-13-2008, 09:04 PM
Rickey Henderson

not who, but what...

If a true leadoff hitter has to be as good as Rickey Henderson, Kc61 isn't going to be very optimistic about the outlook of around 30 teams in MLB...

KronoRed
04-13-2008, 09:15 PM
Fast guy who gets on base and steals them without being caught.

In other news, Reggie Willits has 1 at bat this year with the Angels, sure would love to have him patrolling CF and batting leadoff.

*BaseClogger*
04-13-2008, 09:18 PM
So what are the most important attributes? OB%? SB's?

Personally, I'd say a leadoff hitter should be about 80% getting on base, 15% baserunning, and 5% stolen bases...

Highlifeman21
04-13-2008, 09:31 PM
Fast guy who gets on base and steals them without being caught.

In other news, Reggie Willits has 1 at bat this year with the Angels, sure would love to have him patrolling CF and batting leadoff.

Agreed.

Willits would be a great addition to and for the Reds. He would easily be the Reds' best leadoff option, and would be a true CF. We have one of those with Patterson, but unfortunately he's not a leadoff hitter by any stretch of the imagination.

I don't think a leadoff hitter necessarily needs to have wheels, but a leadoff hitter needs to get on-base at a .375 or above clip, IMO. It would be great if we had a leadoff hitter who had wheels, and had the green light everytime on base, but the SB factor isn't a must, IMO.

reds44
04-13-2008, 09:34 PM
So what are the most important attributes? OB%? SB's?

Personally, I'd say a leadoff hitter should be about 80% getting on base, 15% baserunning, and 5% stolen bases...
On base is the most improtant attribute for an leadoff hitter, IMO. The ideal leadoff man, like krono said, the ideal guy is high OB and speed.

mth123
04-13-2008, 10:01 PM
So what are the most important attributes? OB%? SB's?

Personally, I'd say a leadoff hitter should be about 80% getting on base, 15% baserunning, and 5% stolen bases...

Agreed, but I would lower the importance of SB.

Kc61
04-13-2008, 11:04 PM
Can you clarify this statement? I want to make sure I understand your position before I attempt to debate the notion that we lack an all-star caliber hitter.

I mean an all around top notch hitter. I don't mean a guy like Dunn who is a prolific power hitter but doesn't hit for average. I mean a .300/25-30 homer/100 RBI/.360 OBP guy. Or better.

Sea Ray
04-14-2008, 09:57 AM
Who decided Dunn has to drive in so many runs? I'll take 100 RBI's with 120 Runs scored (which is how many he might get if he batted second). Why can't he just score them when he is in a slump, and drive them in when he gets going?

Dunn's job is to drive in runs. It's a bonus that he scores a lot. If he's your #2 hitter is he worth $15mill a year or whatever he'll command in his next contract? I doubt it.

*BaseClogger*
04-14-2008, 10:01 AM
Dunn's job is to drive in runs. It's a bonus that he scores a lot. If he's your #2 hitter is he worth $15mill a year or whatever he'll command in his next contract? I doubt it.

Where he hits has should not affect what kind of hitter he is. What kind of hitter he is should affect where he hits in the order. He's worth $15M because of what kind of hitter he is, not because of how he conforms to some predisposed role in a batting order.

Dunn's job is to be the most productive hitter he can be IMO. He is what he is; possibly the best #2 hitter in the game (don't call me out--I just got back from spring break and thinking hurts)...

Sea Ray
04-14-2008, 10:52 AM
Well BC, you are thinking outside the box. The guy is 6'6", 275 lbs, hits 40-50 HRs a year and strikes out 160-200 times. That's not your prototypical #2 hitter.

Seems to me you're resigning yourself to the fact that he can't drive in runs so you think #2 is where he should settle. Well if he can't drive in runs, yet he continues to strike out at league leading numbers and he gives you nothing on defense then I'd say he's grossly overpaid. I still hold out hope that he can learn the skill of driving in runs but you may be right.

RedsManRick
04-14-2008, 10:56 AM
Dunn's job is to drive in runs. It's a bonus that he scores a lot. If he's your #2 hitter is he worth $15mill a year or whatever he'll command in his next contract? I doubt it.

Dunn's job is to produce runs. That's a combination of scoring them himself and driving them in. It's Dusty's job to get the most run production out of Dunn as possible. The reality is that most of Dunn's power comes on mistake pitches, pitches he sees much less with men on base. A lot of his value comes from his ability to still get on base when he's not hitting for power.

Now, you might not like him as a guy who scores more runs than he drives in, and you might not choose to sign him to a long term deal. That's fine. But so long as he's on the roster, it only makes sense to use him in the way that befits his skill set. Just as putting Corey Patterson in leadoff just because he's fast doesn't make sense, you don't help yourself by shoe-horning guys in to roles that don't necessarily fit their skills.

Sea Ray
04-14-2008, 11:02 AM
You make some good points, Rick. Maybe after 6 yrs we need to concede that this guy is never going to learn to drive in runs, admit he can only handle mistake pitches and just plug him into the #2 hole. I'm willing to try it. I'm tired of watching these double digit LOB games. I've never thought of Corey Patterson as more proficient at driving in runs than Dunn but you may be onto something.

pahster
04-14-2008, 11:14 AM
Seems to me you're resigning yourself to the fact that he can't drive in runs so you think #2 is where he should settle. Well if he can't drive in runs, yet he continues to strike out at league leading numbers and he gives you nothing on defense then I'd say he's grossly overpaid. I still hold out hope that he can learn the skill of driving in runs but you may be right.

If Dunn "can't drive in runs" (not that I think it matters WHO drives them in so long as runs are scored) why does he plate so many? He's averaged over 100 RBI per season since 2004. He's also averaged over 100 runs scored over the same time frame. What's the problem, that he isn't Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, or Alex Rodriguez? Well touché, then; almost no one is.

bucksfan2
04-14-2008, 11:25 AM
I think that his current version of the reds can go to prove why OBP can be a little misleading. The problem with the walk is that it isnt a run producer unless the bases are loaded. It can/should be a run scorer but it won't drive in runs. When you are leaving 12 men on base game OBP isn't the problem at all, it is avg. Its getting runs in. Its not bunting with bases loaded or with runners on 1st and 3rd because that is what you do. IMO this proves that if you overlook batting average and rely solely on OPB you will find yourself in trouble.

pahster
04-14-2008, 11:29 AM
I think that his current version of the reds can go to prove why OBP can be a little misleading. The problem with the walk is that it isnt a run producer unless the bases are loaded. It can/should be a run scorer but it won't drive in runs. When you are leaving 12 men on base game OBP isn't the problem at all, it is avg. Its getting runs in. Its not bunting with bases loaded or with runners on 1st and 3rd because that is what you do. IMO this proves that if you overlook batting average and rely solely on OPB you will find yourself in trouble.

AVG isn't the problem (the Reds' team AVG is only .002 below that of the league); it's the lack of slugging. A .389 team SLG is ridiculous.

RedsManRick
04-14-2008, 11:35 AM
You make some good points, Rick. Maybe after 6 yrs we need to concede that this guy is never going to learn to drive in runs, admit he can only handle mistake pitches and just plug him into the #2 hole. I'm willing to try it. I'm tired of watching these double digit LOB games. I've never thought of Corey Patterson as more proficient at driving in runs than Dunn but you may be onto something.

It's interesting to realize that a double drives in runners on base nearly as well as a homer does. And often, a single does the job too. A lower average, high slugging guy really isn't an idea "RBI guy", because he misses a lot of opportunities where something less than a homer does the job. The Adam Dunn of 2004, where he hit .266 and had 80 extra base hits is great. But you won't get that every year and you shouldn't be wasting his great OBP in the process. You shouldn't be asking a guy to change his extremely productive approach because of the circumstances you place him in. You should place him in circumstances that fit his extremely productive approach.

Frankly, it's what makes EE a better "RBI guy" than Dunn; Higher average, more balls in play. If you want to measure how good of an "RBI guy" somebody is, here's an easy metric to use:

(RBI - HR) / Plate Appearances with Men On Base

It's not perfect, but over the long haul, it should balance the specific base state opportunities. "Scoring position" is, in my opinion, a stupid manipulation created when the game had less power. Sure, a guy on 3rd base is more likely to score, than is a guy from 2nd, than is a guy from first. But if you're on base, you're in scoring position. If you want to control for base state, that's fine, but don't do it simply by excluding runners on first.

It also gets at a little more precisely what is meant by "RBI guy" -- the ability to drive in baserunners, other than ones self, when the opportunity to do arises. Certainly there are other productive things one can do (like walk), but if you want to measure "RBI guy"ness, you need to narrow it down.

EE: 626 PA, .296/.382/.481, .227 RBI/PA (.097 BB/PA, .165 SO/PA)
AD: 1939 PA, .243/.410/.509, .174 RBI/PA (.210 BB/PA, .259 SO/PA)
BP: 854 PA, .270/.322/.424, .185 RBI/PA (.056 BB/PA, .159 SO/PA)

The reality is that if you want a guy at the plate most likely to drive in runners on base, Dunn simply isn't the best man for the job, despite his high OBP & SLG than EE and BP. Both EE and BP have driven in base runners more regularly than Dunn. Forcing him in to that role by batting him lower in the order is a misuse of his abilities and offensive contributions.

Sea Ray
04-14-2008, 12:14 PM
If Dunn "can't drive in runs" (not that I think it matters WHO drives them in so long as runs are scored) why does he plate so many? He's averaged over 100 RBI per season since 2004. He's also averaged over 100 runs scored over the same time frame. What's the problem, that he isn't Manny Ramirez, Albert Pujols, or Alex Rodriguez? Well touché, then; almost no one is.

100 RBI is not real productive when you're hitting 40+ HRs. That's pretty much the definition of HR or nothing. Our present day problem is Dunn has only knocked in 5 runs this year and I think only 2 or 3 of those were without the benefit of a HR. That will not cut it. That's absolutely horrible. My bet is Juan Castro could knock in 5 runs by now if you put him in the number 5 hole. That's the problem we're trying to fix. 5 RBI from the #5 hole is basically no production at all

pahster
04-14-2008, 12:21 PM
100 RBI is not real productive when you're hitting 40+ HRs. That's pretty much the definition of HR or nothing. Our present day problem is Dunn has only knocked in 5 runs this year and I think only 2 or 3 of those were without the benefit of a HR. That will not cut it. That's absolutely horrible. My bet is Juan Castro could knock in 5 runs by now if you put him in the number 5 hole. That's the problem we're trying to fix. 5 RBI from the #5 hole is basically no production at all

You'll get no arguments from me on Dunn's season to date; he's hit like crap. But seriously? "Not real productive?" Why does it matter how a run scores so long as it does score? Dunn is what he is; a guy who will score a lot and drive a lot of runs in (of which many will be himself). That's a good thing. If the team isn't maximizing the utility of his skill set the onus lies on the team, not Dunn.

Sea Ray
04-14-2008, 12:37 PM
He's not real productive at driving in runs. He is a productive offensive player. No doubting that.

Highlifeman21
04-14-2008, 06:55 PM
I mean an all around top notch hitter. I don't mean a guy like Dunn who is a prolific power hitter but doesn't hit for average. I mean a .300/25-30 homer/100 RBI/.360 OBP guy. Or better.

I don't think there's too many of those league-wide.


Players meeting .300AVG/25-30HR/100RBI/.360OBP Criteria

Player AVG HR RBI OBP
N. Markakis* .300 23 112 .362
A. Ramirez .310 26 101 .366
G. Atkins .301 35 111 .367
V. Martinez .301 25 114 .374
M. Lowell* .324 21 120 .378
B. Hawpe* .291 29 116 .387
M. Teixeira .306 30 105 .400
M. Cabrera .320 34 119 .401
V. Guerrero .324 27 125 .403
M. Holliday .340 36 137 .405
C. Utley* .332 22 103 .410
D. Wright .325 30 107 .416
A. Rodriguez .314 54 156 .422
C. Jones .337 29 102 .425
J. Posada* .338 20 90 .426
A. Pujols .327 32 103 .429
M. Ordonez .363 28 139 .434
T. Helton* .320 17 91 .434
D. Ortiz .332 35 117 .445

* indicates close, but no cigar, based on your criteria

13 guys met your criteria. That's a pretty exclusive club.

I used the .360 OBP as my sort, so there might be some also close but no cigar that had sub .360 OBP, but might have met the AVG, HR and RBI stipulations.

Kc61
04-14-2008, 06:59 PM
I don't think there's too many of those league-wide.


Players meeting .300AVG/25-30HR/100RBI/.360OBP Criteria

Player AVG HR RBI OBP
N. Markakis* .300 23 112 .362
A. Ramirez .310 26 101 .366
G. Atkins .301 35 111 .367
V. Martinez .301 25 114 .374
M. Lowell* .324 21 120 .378
B. Hawpe* .291 29 116 .387
M. Teixeira .306 30 105 .400
M. Cabrera .320 34 119 .401
V. Guerrero .324 27 125 .403
M. Holliday .340 36 137 .405
C. Utley *.332 22 103 .410
D. Wright .325 30 107 .416
A. Rodriguez .314 54 156 .422
C. Jones .337 29 102 .425
J. Posada* .338 20 90 .426
A. Pujols .327 32 103 .429
M. Ordonez .363 28 139 .434
T. Helton* .320 17 91 .434
D. Ortiz .332 35 117 .445

* indicates close, but no cigar, based on your criteria

13 guys met your criteria. That's a pretty exclusive club.

I used the .360 OBP as my sort, so there might be some also close but no cigar that had sub .360 OBP, but might have met the AVG, HR and RBI stipulations.

We're talking about having a top ballclub, so I don't think it's too much to ask for the Reds to have someone with these stats. Even if it means he's among the top 13 bats or thereabouts.

Highlifeman21
04-14-2008, 07:03 PM
We're talking about having a top ballclub, so I don't think it's too much to ask for the Reds to have someone with these stats. Even if it means he's among the top 13 bats or thereabouts.

I have no math or anything to back up this statement and I'm ready to be proven wrong if I am (and I easily could be), but if you replace our best player with any of the guys on that list (included the guys that just missed your criteria), we're still not a playoff team.

It's a debateable point as to who our best offensive player is (Dunn, Patterson, Griffey, EE, Keppinger, Phillips, Votto, Hatteberg seem to be the only viable candidates at this point), but regardless, if you replace that one player with anyone from my posted list of qualifying players, we're still not a playoff team.

SteelSD
04-14-2008, 07:57 PM
AVG isn't the problem (the Reds' team AVG is only .002 below that of the league); it's the lack of slugging. A .389 team SLG is ridiculous.

I found something potentially interesting while researching that SLG issue.

Reds 2007: 1.08 GB/FB ratio
Reds 2008: 1.43 GB/FB ratio

Looking at the NL from 2007, I couldn't find a team posting a GB/FB rate at or above 1.40. The last NL team I could find with a rate that high was the 2006 Chicago Cubs (oh, the irony) who finished 16th in RS. The correlation between low RS and high GB rates is only 0.21 for 2007, so it's not like I'd suggest that a high GB rate would necessarily kill an offense. The next team was the 2004 Pirates (13th in RS). Then the 2003 Montreal and San Diego squads popped up (12th and 14th). In 2002, Colorado (4th), Montreal (6th), LA (7th), and Milwaukee (16th) topped the 1.40 mark. Montreal did it in 2001 as well and ranked 14th in RS. Colorado looked good at first, but then I realized they were last in scoring away from home. Montreal dropped to 10th on the road. LA actually improved on the road (2nd), but were 15th at home (big park and all).

So the question is, "Is it possible that a team GB/FB ratio above 1.40 might actually be harmful to a team?" If that kind of GB rate is a residual of teams that have been, overall, poor offensive squads then might it be an indicator of a poor offensive method?

Then I started thinking about the kind of players the Reds have which led me to the struggles of Dunn and Encarnacion. Here's the BIP (including HR) type for both versus last season:

Dunn 07: 34.60% GB, 46.60% FB, 18.80% LD (Line Drives)
Dunn 08: 55.60% GB, 33.30% FB, 11.10% LD

Encarnacion 07: 37.90% GB, 43.40% FB, 18.70% LD
Encarnacion 08: 54.80% GB, 38.70% FB, 6.50% LD

Yikes. Those differentials are nothing but bad for those guys this season, and it goes a long way (maybe all the way) to explaining their anemic BABIP numbers this season (.192 and .172 respectively). And for a guy like Dunn, he has to (and I mean HAS TO) get balls in the air. About 20% of his Fly Balls end up in the stands. Instead, he's been dinking and dunking and going oppo in an attempt to beat the "shift". Bad plan if it is actually a plan. Do not want.

Likewise, Encarnacion's differentials are awful and even moreso on the side of Line Drive rate. There's simply no way his offensive game can survive if those numbers continue.

The good news is that it's early. Thus, it's very possible that those numbers are simply random variances that should right themselves as the season goes on. That being said, there's also the possibility that these guys are so bunched up because they're trying to drive in runs that they're playing right into the hands of opposing defenses. Time will tell.

GAC
04-14-2008, 08:06 PM
AVG isn't the problem (the Reds' team AVG is only .002 below that of the league); it's the lack of slugging. A .389 team SLG is ridiculous.

Exactly. We're straining at a knat here.

GAC
04-14-2008, 08:36 PM
On base is the most improtant attribute for an leadoff hitter, IMO. The ideal leadoff man, like krono said, the ideal guy is high OB and speed.

So get Hatteberg a greenie prescription and the problem is solved. :p:

Cyclone792
04-15-2008, 10:20 PM
I found something potentially interesting while researching that SLG issue.

Reds 2007: 1.08 GB/FB ratio
Reds 2008: 1.43 GB/FB ratio

Good stuff, Steel.

While watching tonight's fiasco, I was reminded of another bad trend we're seeing with the offense ...

Reds GDPs per game:

2004: 0.77
2005: 0.72
2006: 0.75
2007: 0.86
2008: 1.00

With the NL average hovering around 0.79 GDPs per game, the Reds have gone from a better than average team in avoiding GDPs back in 2004-06 to well ... erasing too many of their own baserunners.

WMR
04-15-2008, 10:23 PM
Strikeouts are bad, mmmmmkay??

These lollygaggers aren't getting paid to keep the damn bat on their shoulders!!!

edabbs44
04-15-2008, 10:25 PM
Good stuff, Steel.

While watching tonight's fiasco, I was reminded of another bad trend we're seeing with the offense ...

Reds GDPs per game:

2004: 0.77
2005: 0.72
2006: 0.75
2007: 0.86
2008: 1.00

With the NL average hovering around 0.79 GDPs per game, the Reds have gone from a better than average team in avoiding GDPs back in 2004-06 to well ... erasing too many of their own baserunners.

In those 4 years (2004-2007), Cincy has scored their most runs in 2005 (820), then 2007 (783), then 2004 (750) and last 2006 (749).

Can't see much of a pattern of it affecting the bottom line.

*BaseClogger*
04-15-2008, 10:42 PM
In those 4 years (2004-2007), Cincy has scored their most runs in 2005 (820), then 2007 (783), then 2004 (750) and last 2006 (749).

Can't see much of a pattern of it affecting the bottom line.

I think the point was more to look at 2008...

edabbs44
04-15-2008, 10:46 PM
I think the point was more to look at 2008...

My point was that it didn't seem to make a difference to the bottom line before. DPs obviously suck worse than SPs (single plays, that is) but I think it is easy to make that point this year when their offense is horrendous all around. DPs have a part in it, but so does their team BA, SLG and BA/RISP.

*BaseClogger*
04-15-2008, 10:47 PM
My point was that it didn't seem to make a difference to the bottom line before. DPs obviously suck worse than SPs (single plays, that is) but I think it is easy to make that point this year when their offense is horrendous all around. DPs have a part in it, but so does their team BA, SLG and BA/RISP.

team BA? Really?

edabbs44
04-15-2008, 10:55 PM
team BA? Really?

Obviously being 4th in OBP hasn't helped them score runs.

*BaseClogger*
04-15-2008, 11:01 PM
Obviously being 4th in OBP hasn't helped them score runs.

or... it's only part of the equation... :rolleyes:

edabbs44
04-15-2008, 11:02 PM
or... it's only part of the equation... :rolleyes:

If you don't think that team BA is also part of the equation, then I guess there isn't anything else to discuss.

*BaseClogger*
04-15-2008, 11:02 PM
If you don't think that team BA is also part of the equation, then I guess there isn't anything else to discuss.

Well, SLG is kind of like BA...

SteelSD
04-15-2008, 11:57 PM
Good stuff, Steel.

While watching tonight's fiasco, I was reminded of another bad trend we're seeing with the offense ...

Reds GDPs per game:

2004: 0.77
2005: 0.72
2006: 0.75
2007: 0.86
2008: 1.00

With the NL average hovering around 0.79 GDPs per game, the Reds have gone from a better than average team in avoiding GDPs back in 2004-06 to well ... erasing too many of their own baserunners.

Yeah. I didn't want to comment on the increase in GIDP until I saw a few more games, but now that you've brought it up it's likely due to a couple things. First, when tied to a team OBP of .348 coming into tonight, their 12 GIDP were partly opportunity-driven. With more baserunners, we should see more GIDP. However a 1.40+ GB/FB rate exacerbates the issue and I'm honestly concerned that the mandate is to just hit the ball into play. Tonight, the Reds hit 14 in-play GB versus 7 in-play FB for a ratio of 2.00/1.00 so that 1.40 ratio isn't coming down.

What we have is a potentially high-power offense that might be trying desperately to play a game it can't. With high GB rates, the power suffers. GIDP's negate a number of On-Base opportunities. Combine the two and you have an offense that won't produce high SLG numbers but one that will produce an effective OBP that's less than their actual.

Then add the dumb Sac Bunts at the worst moments. More Outs. Take tonight's 7th Inning. The Reds get the first two Runners on and Patterson bunts. Versus a RH pitcher no less. Here's a guy who has been praised up and down for his SLG so far this season. Probably the one guy on the roster who might be able to avoid a DP due to sheer speed. And he bunts in order to bring up a guy (Keppinger) who'll have to hit a really deep single to score both runners with Hatteberg on 2nd. Especially on the road, Baker should be playing for the big Inning. But no. Instead, we get Baker-ball which will work at some point in the season; which will further enforce that Baker-ball is what the Reds should be playing.

Right now the team's lineup is a complete mess and the team's in-game strategy is a complete mess (which goes further than the offensive moves, but that's another coversation).

I'll be watching the Reds' adjusted standings very closely this season as posted at baseballprospectus.com:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

It's early so it could be nothing but randomness. At the same time, I've seen very little I like about the lineups and style of play driven by a Manager who can't seem to do much right thus far.

*BaseClogger*
04-16-2008, 12:03 AM
Steel, could you help me understand the "adjusted standings"? Thanks.

SteelSD
04-16-2008, 12:35 AM
Steel, could you help me understand the "adjusted standings"? Thanks.

They're based off Equivalent Runs, which are basically how many Runs the team should have scored and allowed based on their raw offensive and pitching/defense statistics. Thank Clay Davenport for the development of the numbers which are explained here:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2596

Keep in mind that the differentials versus expected results can vary wildly due to low sample sizes. However, they can also vary wildly because of interference (read Manager meddling). D-Man (a poster who I very much respect) clued me into that page and it got me thinking. Even though last year's Adjusted Standings suggested the Reds were just unlucky as I veiwed that page religiously throughout the season, they turned around after Narron was shown the door until the end of the season (see: Mackanin, Pete). I wish I could pull up that 2007 page, but even links to it in posts from last year only get me to the 2008 Adj Standings.

What you should be looking at is the "D1" and "D2" sections on the far right of the page. Ignore the "D3" as it has to do with the "strength" of opponent hitting and pitching. There's really no way to determine that until the end of the season as every team is, at this point, an unknown quantity.

Prior to tonight, the Reds had a 6-7 record. Based on EQR (58 Runs) and EQRA (44 Runs), the Reds should have posted a 8-5 record prior to today. So is it possible that they've just been unlucky? Sure. But is it also possible that Manager interference has something to do with it? Sure.

That's the problem with having a Manager who meddles. Had Baker made all the right moves thusfar, there wouldn't be a question. Yet, right now, there is.

IMHO, I'd suggest that it's a combination of randomness and a Manager who hasn't yet figured out who's good at what.

BTW, here's a very interesting take on the moves by MLB Managers last year. It includes Pete Mackanin as the Reds' Manager and it's scary how closely he resembles Terry Francona.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/04/01/science/0401-sci-PROFILE.lg.jpg

WMR
04-16-2008, 12:40 AM
Steel: What are the chances Dusty bats Dunn either 2nd or 3rd anytime this season?

What are the chances he eventually drops Patterson out of the lead-off position?

RedsManRick
04-16-2008, 12:45 AM
Another 3 wasted walks from Dunn and Patterson's OBP continues to drop in the tank. I know we've had all kinds of discussions on lineup order, but we really need to move past the "what guys should do" lineups and start organizing it based on what they do do. Adam Dunn gets on base -- a lot. Batting him after Phillips and Junior is an utter waste of a large portion of his production. Uggh.

SteelSD
04-16-2008, 12:55 AM
Steel: What are the chances Dusty bats Dunn either 2nd or 3rd anytime this season?

What are the chances he eventually drops Patterson out of the lead-off position?

Considering that Baker has managed Barry Bonds, one would think that moving Dunn higher in the order would be something he'd do. But it won't happen. If Dunn ever hits higher than the cleanup slot, I'd be amazed.

Patterson? He's in there against RHP until he proves he can't hit RHP. So that'll be a good while due to his strong SLG at this point. Problem is that Baker takes quite a while to figure out that his preferred leadoff hitter can't actually hit leadoff. The guy wants speed there and generally only offers that lineup slot to someone else after his preferred play fails or until his team can find someone like Kenny Lofton.

The guy has no imagination.

BCubb2003
04-16-2008, 01:25 AM
If nothing else, double plays improve your LOB totals.

reds44
04-16-2008, 02:28 AM
I know so much has been said and written about the trade, but a guy who the Reds could really use is Austin Kearns. He has struggled against lefties this year, but for his career he has a .284/.406/.456/.861 line against lefties. I understandn moving Kearns allowed Griffey to go right field, but at some point you have to get balance in you lineup.

I think people are making way too many excuses for why Dunn isn't hitting. The most popular one is "he is being junkballed" because Edwin is hitting behind him. Getting junkballed is no excuse for hitting .162. If a pitch is out of the zone, don't swing at it. Dunn leads the team in walks with 16, but Edwin is 2nd with 10. Is Edwin being junkballed as well?

This team stopped scoring runs as soon as Corey Patterson rememered he is Corey Patterson. After his performance in the 2nd game in Milwaukee, Patterson had a .323/.353/.839 line. Patterson is now 1 for his last 15 and has a .230/.280/.609 line. The Reds are 1-4 in the Patterson slump, and the Reds have scored 13 runs. Without Patterson going nuts, the Reds have no production from the offense.

It's time to switch the lineup around. Tomorrow my lineup would be:
Keppinger
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Patterson
Bako
Hatteberg/Votto


Oh, and we've heard Joey Votto called "Scott Hatteberg with better speed and power." Currently Votto has walked 0 times in 30 ABs. He's the only Reds position player without a walk.