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View Full Version : If the Reds are out of it by the break...



Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 03:52 PM
Should they trade Arroyo? They have Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Belisle Maloney, Thompson, and Lehr. All in the Majors or high minors. If they could get some good prospects for him I see no reason why you should keep him when you could get nearly the same productivity for much cheaper. Surely they could find a serviceable 5th starter out of the other guys. You could trade him and get the ever valuable right handed pop off the bench that the Reds need so badly.

CWRed
04-12-2008, 03:56 PM
I think so. I expect he's had his best days already.

jmac
04-12-2008, 03:59 PM
Should they trade Arroyo? They have Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Belisle Maloney, Thompson, and Lehr. All in the Majors or high minors. If they could get some good prospects for him I see no reason why you should keep him when you could get nearly the same productivity for much cheaper. Surely they could find a serviceable 5th starter out of the other guys. You could trade him and get the ever valuable right handed pop off the bench that the Reds need so badly.
As far as the "out of it", the reds will have to really be bad to be out of it in our division.

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 04:12 PM
As far as the "out of it", the reds will have to really be bad to be out of it in our division.I know. It is purely a hypothetical question although I wouldn't be completely against trading him even if we aren't out of it.

kaldaniels
04-12-2008, 04:24 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1594241&postcount=11

The stat in that link is very impressive. In my opinion you just don't go out looking to trade a guy like that. Was the basis of this thread his first 2 starts, or the fact that the Reds' system has many pitching prospects? Either way, Arroyo is well worth his contract to this point and is pretty much a sure thing in terms of what you'll get. Keep him!

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 04:32 PM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1594241&postcount=11

The stat in that link is very impressive. In my opinion you just don't go out looking to trade a guy like that. Was the basis of this thread his first 2 starts, or the fact that the Reds' system has many pitching prospects? Either way, Arroyo is well worth his contract to this point and is pretty much a sure thing in terms of what you'll get. Keep him!The point of the thread was you trade bulk for need and right now the Reds have excess starting pitching and need a righty with pop they can platoon with Votto against lefties.

kaldaniels
04-12-2008, 06:21 PM
The point of the thread was you trade bulk for need and right now the Reds have excess starting pitching and need a righty with pop they can platoon with Votto against lefties.

Excess starting pitching? I'd say we have a good, unproven 1-4...but you want to get rid of the #2. Not yet to the point we the Reds have "bulk". Sorry.

redsfanmia
04-12-2008, 06:24 PM
Dont trade Bronson but you do trade Dunn, Hatteberg, Weathers, Fogg, Valentin and Griffey.

Cicero
04-12-2008, 06:24 PM
Excess starting pitching? I'd say we have a good, unproven 1-4...but you want to get rid of the #2. Not yet to the point we the Reds have "bulk". Sorry.

Agreed. Things look good now but the young kids will struggle at times this season.

BoCcc2832
04-12-2008, 06:35 PM
No, that will never work. You can't get rid of someone that you have under contract until 2010 (or 2011 if the team picks up the option). Also, Bronson isn't that bad of a pitcher that we should get rid of him now. Volquez and Cueto are good, but still unproven. When you say that we have an excess of pitchers, that's true, but how many are major league-ready pitchers? That's the question you have to answer before you decide to rid your club of one.

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 06:48 PM
Excess starting pitching? I'd say we have a good, unproven 1-4...but you want to get rid of the #2. Not yet to the point we the Reds have "bulk". Sorry.Bronson is on the downswing of his career. His value will never be higher than it will be at the break this year. Pick up the right hander with pop and gear up for a run next year. Let the young studs Cueto and Volquez get acquainted to the majors for the rest of this year and let Bailey if he gets his command figured out in AAA which looks promising so far. One of Belisle, Maloney, and maybe Thompson (if ready) could all be serviceable 5s.


Dont trade Bronson but you do trade Dunn, Hatteberg, Weathers, Fogg, Valentin and Griffey.I'd trade all but Dunn. Losing both Dunn and Jr. would be an absolutely huge blow to the offense with only a replacement in hand for one of them (Bruce). That blow to the offense would be a much bigger one than the blow of Arroyo being gone and then there would also be a boost in run support and/or bullpen help if WK gets a good deal.


Agreed. Things look good now but the young kids will struggle at times this season.I know that. Let them take their lumps this season and gear up for a pennant run in 2009.

Cicero
04-12-2008, 06:51 PM
Bronson is on the downswing of his career. His value will never be higher than it will be at the break this year. Pick up the right hander with pop and gear up for a run next year. Let the young studs Cueto and Volquez get acquainted to the majors for the rest of this year and let Bailey if he gets his command figured out in AAA which looks promising so far. One of Belisle, Maloney, and maybe Thompson (if ready) could all be serviceable 5s.

I'd trade all but Dunn. Losing both Dunn and Jr. would be an absolutely huge blow to the offense with only a replacement in hand for one of them (Bruce). That blow to the offense would be a much bigger one than the blow of Arroyo being gone and then there would also be a boost in run support and/or bullpen help if WK gets a good deal.

I know that. Let them take their lumps this season and gear up for a pennant run in 2009.

I'm sorry but I want to compete THIS year and I think we will. We have been building for the future since what 1997?

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 06:53 PM
No, that will never work. You can't get rid of someone that you have under contract until 2010 (or 2011 if the team picks up the option). Also, Bronson isn't that bad of a pitcher that we should get rid of him now. Volquez and Cueto are good, but still unproven. When you say that we have an excess of pitchers, that's true, but how many are major league-ready pitchers? That's the question you have to answer before you decide to rid your club of one.I'm not saying he is a bad pitcher. I'm saying a potential deal could help more in the long run that him being with the team. I don't think the difference of a rotation consisting of (in no particular order) Harang, Cueto, Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey is much better than a rotation of Harang, Cueto, Volquez, Bailey, Belisle/Maloney/Thompson + a lineup that is better against lefties.

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 06:55 PM
I'm sorry but I want to compete THIS year and I think we will. We have been building for the future since what 1997?I would too but the thread title said "If we are out of it by the break..."

Cicero
04-12-2008, 06:56 PM
I would to but the thread title said "If we are out of it by the break..."


Touche'

FlightRick
04-12-2008, 07:42 PM
As tends to be the case, major moves like this don't happen in a vacuum, and require a bit more attention to context before one can make an educated decision.

To that end, a few thoughts that pass through my mind when I hear about someone wanting to trade Arroyo:

* The notion of Arroyo being on the "downswing" of his career is based on the EXACT SAME two weeks that seem to be the basis for annointing Cueto and Volquez as reliable top-of-the-rotation starters. This seems tough to swallow. Arroyo was, by and large, the exact same pitcher in 2007 as he was in 2006 (even if game outcomes were different, Arroyo's numbers outside of a 6-start stretch -- one which immediately followed a period of near-criminally high pitch counts -- were almost identical in 2007 to his 2006 in every regard except wins), and hasn't given me enough data in 2008 to boldly proclaim he's finished.

* Yes, we could use a RH power bat. But what are we talking about? Where will this theoretical RH slugger play? 1B? And if so, what's it mean for Votto (trade him?)? OF? If so, does this tie into what you want to do with regards to Dunn (simply put, Bruce is replacing Griffey in RF, and there aren't exactly a ton of heavy-hitting CF'ers out there to choose from)?

* A related point: if you're talking about trading away a still-viable #2 starter, you have only two choices.... (1) receive top notch prospects, and admit the move is nothing but a salary dump that won't yield major league results for 2-3 years. Or (2) receive a MLB-ready every-day slugger. You're freaking insane if you want to get the fabled "RH power off the bench" and will give away Arroyo to get him. In no uncertain terms, only an idiot would trade Arroyo and get a return where a bench/utility player is the centerpiece of the deal.

* If you go for prospects, does this jibe with the generally-accepted belief that the Reds are now positioned to have a "window" to compete from 2009-2012 (assuming continued maturation of young pitchers, the re-signging of Dunn, and Bruce's emergence as Griffey's replacement) before guys start pricing themselves out of Cincinnati? Or is trading away somebody who can be a bankable (and affordable) contributor during those "window" years ultimately counter-productive?

I ponder all those issues, and basically I realize that there are far too many inter-related variables for me to start screaming a definitive yes/no answer at the top of my lungs like your typical sports-talk radio call-in moron. But if I had to: I'd lean towards saying Arroyo probably has more value to the Reds in our rotation than he ever could in a trade.

Nobody's untouchable, and I'd listen to any reasonable offer, but no matter how "out of it" we might get in 2008, I doubt seriously Arroyo will be part of the problem. And in fact, could be part of the solution going forward. With that in mind, the return on Arroyo would have to be significant, and coming across the perfect trading partner and making a near-blockbuster trade are just things that don't seem to happen with a lot of regularity...


Rick

Grande Donkey
04-12-2008, 07:49 PM
As tends to be the case, major moves like this don't happen in a vacuum, and require a bit more attention to context before one can make an educated decision.

To that end, a few thoughts that pass through my mind when I hear about someone wanting to trade Arroyo:

* The notion of Arroyo being on the "downswing" of his career is based on the EXACT SAME two weeks that seem to be the basis for annointing Cueto and Volquez as reliable top-of-the-rotation starters. This seems tough to swallow. Arroyo was, by and large, the exact same pitcher in 2007 as he was in 2006 (even if game outcomes were different, Arroyo's numbers outside of a 6-start stretch -- one which immediately followed a period of near-criminally high pitch counts -- were almost identical in 2007 to his 2006 in every regard except wins), and hasn't given me enough data in 2008 to boldly proclaim he's finished.

* Yes, we could use a RH power bat. But what are we talking about? Where will this theoretical RH slugger play? 1B? And if so, what's it mean for Votto (trade him?)? OF? If so, does this tie into what you want to do with regards to Dunn (simply put, Bruce is replacing Griffey in RF, and there aren't exactly a ton of heavy-hitting CF'ers out there to choose from)?

* A related point: if you're talking about trading away a still-viable #2 starter, you have only two choices.... (1) receive top notch prospects, and admit the move is nothing but a salary dump that won't yield major league results for 2-3 years. Or (2) receive a MLB-ready every-day slugger. You're freaking insane if you want to get the fabled "RH power off the bench" and will give away Arroyo to get him. In no uncertain terms, only an idiot would trade Arroyo and get a return where a bench/utility player is the centerpiece of the deal.

* If you go for prospects, does this jibe with the generally-accepted belief that the Reds are now positioned to have a "window" to compete from 2009-2012 (assuming continued maturation of young pitchers, the re-signging of Dunn, and Bruce's emergence as Griffey's replacement) before guys start pricing themselves out of Cincinnati? Or is trading away somebody who can be a bankable (and affordable) contributor during those "window" years ultimately counter-productive?

I ponder all those issues, and basically I realize that there are far too many inter-related variables for me to start screaming a definitive yes/no answer at the top of my lungs like your typical sports-talk radio call-in moron. But if I had to: I'd lean towards saying Arroyo probably has more value to the Reds in our rotation than he ever could in a trade.

Nobody's untouchable, and I'd listen to any reasonable offer, but no matter how "out of it" we might get in 2008, I doubt seriously Arroyo will be part of the problem. And in fact, could be part of the solution going forward. With that in mind, the return on Arroyo would have to be significant, and coming across the perfect trading partner and making a near-blockbuster trade are just things that don't seem to happen with a lot of regularity...


RickVery well thought out post and I will admit that there would have to be nearly a perfect trading partner involved or a really desperate team before you could work out a trade for Arroyo.

TheBigLebowski
04-12-2008, 08:55 PM
We're not going to be out of it by the break but I would not be opposed to trading BA in the slightest. He looks awful this year and he ain't getting any better.

tommycash
04-13-2008, 02:01 PM
I would trade Griffey, Weathers, Fogg, Hatteburg, Freel, and Merker.

How about if we are in the race? Who do we trade to make this team better in the stretch?

mroby85
04-14-2008, 01:07 AM
Don't trade Bronson! you have him under contract for a couple more years, and he's a solid pitcher, what we need to do is find a better #5, and stop worrying about unloading our #4. Things will pick up for the offense, and things will be great in redsland. mark it down!

Newman4
04-14-2008, 10:08 AM
I think it's hard sometimes for people to objectively when trading what appears to be a fan favorite. I remember the Sean Casey threads from a few years back. I'm not a Billy Beane fan per se but you can see the logic in trading "proven" or "solid" guys when they start to get expensive or are at the end of a contract. Arroyo (the former) and Dunn (the latter) would fit the bill. (As would Jr. I suppose) I'm glad to see I'm not alone in thinking that Arroyo is on the downswing. I base that on last year and the first part of this year. Put me down for trading Dunn and Arroyo.

Rick, how can you arbitrarily throw out 6 of Arroyo's starts from last season? That's 17-18% of his year. If you took away 17-18% of every player's poor performances they would look pretty good.

I do agree about making the most of the trade opportunity which was pointed out in the CIN/COL trade proposal. I guess I underestimate his trade value. :dunno:

I'd still be glad to wager on those 65 QS in 08-10 though.

FlightRick
04-14-2008, 11:17 AM
Insofar as I'll pursue this debate, I think it fits better in the other thread... but as a quick one-hitter, I guess I'd have to say, Newman, that I find your use of the word "arbitrarily" to be, well, arbitrary.

I did, in fact, posit cause and effect: the cause was a documentable and preventable mistake (pitcher abuse) and the effect was a month-long dead arm. That theory may or may not appeal to your sense of baseball logic, but 'twasn't arbitrary to suggest "if we avoid A, then 2007's stats show we might prevent B."

Newman4
04-14-2008, 06:22 PM
Insofar as I'll pursue this debate, I think it fits better in the other thread... but as a quick one-hitter, I guess I'd have to say, Newman, that I find your use of the word "arbitrarily" to be, well, arbitrary.

I did, in fact, posit cause and effect: the cause was a documentable and preventable mistake (pitcher abuse) and the effect was a month-long dead arm. That theory may or may not appeal to your sense of baseball logic, but 'twasn't arbitrary to suggest "if we avoid A, then 2007's stats show we might prevent B."


So is it safe to assume that Baker or any other MLB manager will not ask Arroyo to pitch to a high pitch count or even pitch after such an event? To link, poor performance to one isolated variable such as pitch count is kind of a stretch. Again, if you subtract 1/6 of any players poor performances he'll do better. Attaching a hypothetical reason to it doesn't make it go away.

Grande Donkey
04-18-2008, 07:44 PM
Arroyo does not look anything like a #2 starter right now. He is a slightly better version of Josh Fogg right now. (Hyperbole but he is not pitching well at all)

redsupport
04-18-2008, 09:09 PM
his deception has evaporated

Hondo
04-18-2008, 09:49 PM
Arroyo does not look anything like a #2 starter right now. He is a slightly better version of Josh Fogg right now. (Hyperbole but he is not pitching well at all)

Comparing Bronson Arroyo to Josh Fogg is like comparing Johan Santana to Mark Hedrickson...

Fogg sucks and I will gladly pay his Greyhound Bus fair out of town...

Jefferson24
04-18-2008, 10:36 PM
Reds may be out of it by May 1st at the rate their going. Better make some big changes soon. Couldn't do much worse.

GoReds33
04-18-2008, 10:38 PM
Dont trade Bronson but you do trade Dunn, Hatteberg, Weathers, Fogg, Valentin and Griffey.Not Dunn. You trade the rest so we have money to give Dunn the deal he deserves. He's way too productive to let slip away.