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View Full Version : Will the Reds trade Dunn when Bruce is ready???



Will M
04-14-2008, 05:39 PM
I was thinking today that the Reds may trade Dunn when Bruce is ready.
I am thinking Bruce will be ready sometime this year.

Dunn ( and Griffey ) are poor defensive players and if Krivsky and Jocketty want to build a team like the Twins or Cards then Dunn doesn't fit. Assuming the Reds want a decent defensive outfield then Bruce-CF-Griffey(or Dunn) beats Dunn-Bruce-Griffey.

So either Dunn or Griffey is likely IMO to go when Bruce is ready.
If Griffey plays decently this year I think the Reds will pay him the $16M for 2009 rather than the $4M buyout. $4M is a lot of money for zero production and the PR hit would also be bad.

Assuming Griffey plays decently this year and refuses any trade to the AL then the Reds choices would be:

A. Trade Dunn & replace him with Bruce this year

B. Let Dunn walk & replace him with Bruce at the start of 2009

C. Go with the really bad defensive outfield of Dunn-Bruce-Griffey for the rest of 2008 and all of 2009.

D. Eat $4M and let Griffey walk then replace him with Bruce at the start of 2009.

Reds1
04-14-2008, 05:40 PM
Griffey is probably gone. Bruce will take over RF next year if we are in the race all year. Could see Dunn traded, but I think they want to keep him.

Highlifeman21
04-14-2008, 06:00 PM
I think trading Dunn to make room for Bruce is an organization changing move, and not in a good way.

Griffey won't be here in 2009. That makes plenty of room for Bruce.

Redhook
04-14-2008, 06:07 PM
What I'm hoping for is two things:

1) Griffey's option is not picked up and Bruce takes over right field. $16 million for Griffey would be asinine.
2) Dunn is gone after this year and the Reds use that money for a right-handed outfielder. I like Dunn and he's a heck of a player, but I don't think he's worth $15/year on this team. This team desperately needs a right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to balance it out.

I would like to see a lineup like this next year:

Patterson/CF
Keppinger
Bruce
Right-handed LF
Votto
Phillips
EE
Catcher

Jpup
04-14-2008, 06:15 PM
What I'm hoping for is two things:

1) Griffey's option is not picked up and Bruce takes over right field. $16 million for Griffey would be asinine.
2) Dunn is gone after this year and the Reds use that money for a right-handed outfielder. I like Dunn and he's a heck of a player, but I don't think he's worth $15/year on this team. This team desperately needs a right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to balance it out.

I would like to see a lineup like this next year:

Patterson/CF
Keppinger
Bruce
Right-handed LF
Votto
Phillips
EE
Catcher

not wanting to score many runs?

flyer85
04-14-2008, 06:19 PM
I'd say the odds are really high that neither Dunn or Jr will be with the Reds in 2009. I also look for Dunn to be traded in July for a minimal return.

guttle11
04-14-2008, 06:21 PM
not wanting to score many runs?

As opposed to the overflowing amount that will be raked in this year?

This year's team is not going to produce a ton of runs. A little above average at best, IMO. The organization is smack dab in the middle of an assault on youthful arms. I'd rather look for offense on the cheap than pitching.

KronoRed
04-14-2008, 06:25 PM
IMO JR has a better chance at being back then Dunn.

Kc61
04-14-2008, 06:31 PM
IMO JR has a better chance at being back then Dunn.

Wise comment. Probably correct when you think about it.

Griff might settle for, say, $15 million aggregate over 2 years. Dunn is going to want $75 million over 5 years, maybe more.

Dunn has certain skills, he's underappreciated around the league, and he has been the centerpiece of the offense. But the Reds would have to think long and hard before agreeing to pay $15 million per to Dunn for 5 or more years.

Spring~Fields
04-14-2008, 06:34 PM
If the Reds have a season this season like the past seven I am not sure that Griffey and Dunn would want to come back to Cincy, they might want to move on to the greener grass of Florida or where the tumble weeds roll.

I don't think that the Twins or Cardinals paid huge sums to what will be a 39 year old outfielder in Nov of this year and a special circumstances left fielder.
They are auditioning now and I just don't feel that Jockerty and Krivsky will give them glowing recommendations.

Will M
04-14-2008, 06:36 PM
Griff might settle for, say, $15 million aggregate over 2 years.


Interesting. Redoing Jr's contract for 2009 is something I had not considered.

redsmetz
04-14-2008, 07:08 PM
I think it's a mistake to assume that simply because Krivsky and Jockety came from Minnesota & St. Louis, that they only have those two models to build from. I understand they both bring their backgrounds with them, but there are plenty of organizations on which this team can be modeled. I just can't assume either is looking to make the Reds into those particular organizations image.

Redhook
04-14-2008, 07:38 PM
not wanting to score many runs?

I believe they'd score more runs especially if the right-handed bat is someone like Alex Rios. I think it'd be an awesome lineup. The current lineup shows no consistency or any chance to consistently beat left-handed pitching.

GAC
04-14-2008, 08:43 PM
Trade Dunn to Texas for this hot prospect named Josh Hamilton! :D

flyer85
04-14-2008, 08:49 PM
My guess is that by the end of the season the Reds won't want Jr back

Heath
04-14-2008, 08:58 PM
Wow - slow news day around here -

I think you are all forgetting one person. Bob Castellini.

I bet he pulls a "Lindner" and keeps Dunn at no matter the cost.

IslandRed
04-14-2008, 09:13 PM
I'd say the odds are really high that neither Dunn or Jr will be with the Reds in 2009. I also look for Dunn to be traded in July for a minimal return.

The first part probably isn't a terrible bet. As for the second, Dunn's not going anywhere in July if we're still plausibly in contention (although "plausibly" is in the eye of the beholder). If he is put on the market, I expect they'd hold out for a decent return, having the draft-pick compensation as a fallback. It may be a minimal immediate return, though.

WVRedsFan
04-14-2008, 09:14 PM
I fully expect Griffey to be picked up for 2009, providing he's healthy. Like senior, he won't play as much, but he wants to stay here and will make it attractive for the Reds to keep him

Dunn will also be around because I think both Dusty and BC see the value in him. That would mean Bruce would play some in right and in center next year. In fact, I expect either Freel, Castro, and/or Hatteberg to be moved by the AS break so Bruce can come up.

And for all of those praising Patterson as a fixture for next year, you haven't seen the 162 game version of CP yet. By the end of May, you'll be crying for him to go also.

MartyFan
04-14-2008, 09:53 PM
I like Dunn but I don't want him in a Reds uniform beyond the All Star game this year...He can HAMMER when he makes contact (duh) but he is a poor defensive player and he is left handed, we need some right handed power...bad!

I think Jr. will be here next year...paying him what he will want for his production plus the pr plus giving the kid the experience of playing with a HOF player...is worth it...much better than paying $4 million to have Jay Bruce try and replace him and Adam Dunn...that would be to instable of an transition at once...UNLESS we see Votto go to LF and keep Hatte YET ANOTHER YEAR..will EE step it up? I hate that question.

Yachtzee
04-14-2008, 09:55 PM
I, for one, think Dunn is worth $15 million and would keep him on the Reds. Jr. is probably on his way out. I think that gives Bruce this season to grow in the minors playing every day. If they're going to upgrade any outfield position this year, I'd still like it to be CF. I don't see Patterson as a long term solution. A real problem will arise if EE and Votto don't produce and guys like Keppinger and Phillips can't continue their production. They might need to deal a young arm if the offense doesn't come around.

RedlegJake
04-14-2008, 10:13 PM
I fully expect Griffey to be picked up for 2009, providing he's healthy. Like senior, he won't play as much, but he wants to stay here and will make it attractive for the Reds to keep him

I don't think so. I think he's gone as gone can be. The Reds fully intend to put Bruce in right field. And they should. I love Junior but I'm not a sentimentalist anymore - and Junior doesn't get it done. Period. He is the worst RFer in baseball. Now - if Junior agreed to move to first and the Reds could move Votto as part of package for a RH bat or more pitching then great. But I doubt it.


Dunn will also be around because I think both Dusty and BC see the value in him. That would mean Bruce would play some in right and in center next year. In fact, I expect either Freel, Castro, and/or Hatteberg to be moved by the AS break so Bruce can come up.

I think they'll let him walk and take the draft picks. They'll try to trade him but I don't see them giving him away. A mid season deal would likely mean the Reds have completely tanked the season. With due respect to all the negatives around here I don't see that happening. But he doesn't fit the vision of great defense and management knows they would NOT take a hit with most fans by letting Dunn walk. Read the Enquirer board. Most fans don't know beans about baseball. They mostly think he strikes out too much, has a low BA and is a poor defensive player. There would be a small backlash with a small core but no PR problems. Not picking up Junior will hurt the PR. Dunn won't. Stupid thing is, dropping Dunn might even be a good PR move with most of the fan base. Finally -they won't bring Bruce up to fill the role of either Hopper or Freel. He'll play full time when he comes up.


And for all of those praising Patterson as a fixture for next year, you haven't seen the 162 game version of CP yet. By the end of May, you'll be crying for him to go also.

No I won't. CP has been changing his game for the past 2 seasons. He has cut his strikeouts, increased his contact rate, and is a good bet to hit around .300 with a little pop. What he won't do is walk much which will limit his OBP. He's an excellent defender and a plus in the lineup. I continue to adamantly maintain that you don't rip CP because Baker insists on leading him off when its not his strength.

OnBaseMachine
04-14-2008, 10:24 PM
I think they'll let him walk and take the draft picks. They'll try to trade him but I don't see them giving him away. A mid season deal would likely mean the Reds have completely tanked the season. With due respect to all the negatives around here I don't see that happening. But he doesn't fit the vision of great defense and management knows they would NOT take a hit with most fans by letting Dunn walk. Read the Enquirer board. Most fans don't know beans about baseball. They mostly think he strikes out too much, has a low BA and is a poor defensive player. There would be a small backlash with a small core but no PR problems. Not picking up Junior will hurt the PR. Dunn won't. Stupid thing is, dropping Dunn might even be a good PR move with most of the fan base. Finally -they won't bring Bruce up to fill the role of either Hopper or Freel. He'll play full time when he comes up.


I don't know about that Redleg. I think the Reds would have quite a few upset fans if they were to let Dunn go for draft picks. While many folks on the the Enquirer board or Reds.com message board don't like Dunn, if you go to the ballpark his jersey is the one you see people wearing the most. A few wear Freel jerseys, or Arroyo, or Griffey but Dunn jerseys are the most popular among Reds fans at the ballpark. I think most people realize that Dunn is a great hitter and would be sorely missed in the Reds lineup.

REDREAD
04-14-2008, 10:54 PM
I'd say the odds are really high that neither Dunn or Jr will be with the Reds in 2009. I also look for Dunn to be traded in July for a minimal return.

I do agree with you that if Dunn is traded, the return will be disappointing.
That's what really makes it difficult. The days when you could trade a pending free agent for a king's ransom in prospects is long gone.
Also, the fact that it's well known that Dunn insists on playing LF makes him far less marketable/desirable.

Dunn would probably net so little in return that I think the Reds would be better off trying to extend him. Also, there's the consideration that the offense is really going to tank without Dunn. Plus, it would annoy Marty to bring Dunn back ;)

Will M
04-14-2008, 11:17 PM
I do agree with you that if Dunn is traded, the return will be disappointing.
That's what really makes it difficult. The days when you could trade a pending free agent for a king's ransom in prospects is long gone.
Also, the fact that it's well known that Dunn insists on playing LF makes him far less marketable/desirable.

Dunn would probably net so little in return that I think the Reds would be better off trying to extend him. Also, there's the consideration that the offense is really going to tank without Dunn. Plus, it would annoy Marty to bring Dunn back ;)

The Reds could be a good team IF Cueto & Volquez pitch well. Even if this happens we still have a lot of holes. Looking to AAA Bruce leaps out as a guy who could make the team this year. If he replaces Dunn or Griffey then we could theoretically trade Dunn/Griffey to help fix a hole. If the return doesn't add up to much then there is less of a point to this.

Even so I think Bruce replaces either Dunn or Griffey. I think a lot of folks have assumed it would be Griffey but I am beginning to wonder if it could be Dunn.

IslandRed
04-14-2008, 11:32 PM
Dunn would probably net so little in return that I think the Reds would be better off trying to extend him. Also, there's the consideration that the offense is really going to tank without Dunn.

It certainly would tank if they don't replace him with anybody good, yeah. But that's the thing now that Dunn is a veteran player -- "bargain" is no longer going to be an operative term. The same money spent to extend him could be spent on someone else if need be, and at $15+ million a year, that someone would presumably be pretty good, too.

WMR
04-14-2008, 11:36 PM
If the Reds kept Griffey in lieu of Dunn it would be one of the worst decisions management has made in a long time. Definitely the worst decision of the Castellini era, easily surpassing "The Trade."

WMR
04-14-2008, 11:38 PM
Offer Dunn 4 years for 60 million with a team option 5th year for 17 million or a 4 million buy-out.

That would guarantee him 16 over 4 years and give the Reds the possibility to keep him an extra year for reasonable MLB prices 5 years from now should he continue to produce at the same high level he has produced at for his career up until this point.

redsrule2500
04-14-2008, 11:49 PM
I guess I'll pick D.

KronoRed
04-15-2008, 02:19 AM
My guess is that by the end of the season the Reds won't want Jr back

I think it all comes down to what kind of year he has, a bad one and the decision is easy, a good one and one more year 16mill doesn't look so bad considering Dunn and his 13 will be gone.

bucksfan2
04-15-2008, 09:52 AM
This may be a little out of the box thinking but here is what I see going into the Dunn decision.

Jr. is a shell of his former self but one heck of a draw. I bet that Votto > Jr. in terms of offensive production by the seasons end. Votto has played LF over the past few years and can take over that position if need be. He may need a winter in Arizona learning to play LF better. The question you have to ask with JR is would he be willing to take a back up role. Would he be willing to play some games at 1b? If he is then you work out some kind of deal by buying out his contract and signing him to a lesser deal. Also let him know that you would be willing to trade him to a contender if the season goes south.

Patterson most probably wont be back in CF for the reds unless they sign him to a multi year deal. I don't think you shell out money for Patterson if your not for Dunn.

I have a feeling that we will se an entirely different starting outfield in 09 than 08. We also have to take into consideration that the reds right handed bats are down pretty far in the minors but lets make a pretty big assumption that both Fraizer and Stubbs play well at AA for part of the 08 season. If Fraizer hits I don't see any way that he stays in Dayton for too long. Stubbs may be an enigma but if he is healthy this year and puts up a mid to high .300 obp then he can work his way up through the minors. Could these two guys be in competition for an outfield job? Would the reds move Fraizer to a corner outfield position? Could the reds move Fraizer to 1b? It may be a little far fetched but could the reds look like this in 09

1. Stubbs - CF
2. Keppinger - SS
3. Bruce - RF
4. Phillips - 2B
5. Votto - LF
6. Encarnacion - 3B
7. Fraizer - 1B
8. Ross - C
9. Pitcher

I wouldn't underestimate that fact Wayne wants to prove that his first draft is a success. That is why I can see a Stubbs in CF next season. This team would also be better defensively for a team with solid pitching. I also don't think its too far to think that the reds would sign Dunn to play 1b. I think too many people underestimate his athletic ability and the toll that he takes playing LF with that big of a body. I can also see Arroyo being traded for an offensive bat over the next year.

flyer85
04-15-2008, 10:09 AM
I think it all comes down to what kind of year he has, a bad one and the decision is easy, a good one and one more year 16mill doesn't look so bad considering Dunn and his 13 will be gone.aging stars(least ones not on the juice) have a long history of being overpaid for little performance. The Reds should pay him his $4M and let him go.

Highlifeman21
04-15-2008, 11:27 AM
This may be a little out of the box thinking but here is what I see going into the Dunn decision.

Jr. is a shell of his former self but one heck of a draw. I bet that Votto > Jr. in terms of offensive production by the seasons end. Votto has played LF over the past few years and can take over that position if need be. He may need a winter in Arizona learning to play LF better. The question you have to ask with JR is would he be willing to take a back up role. Would he be willing to play some games at 1b? If he is then you work out some kind of deal by buying out his contract and signing him to a lesser deal. Also let him know that you would be willing to trade him to a contender if the season goes south.

Patterson most probably wont be back in CF for the reds unless they sign him to a multi year deal. I don't think you shell out money for Patterson if your not for Dunn.

I have a feeling that we will se an entirely different starting outfield in 09 than 08. We also have to take into consideration that the reds right handed bats are down pretty far in the minors but lets make a pretty big assumption that both Fraizer and Stubbs play well at AA for part of the 08 season. If Fraizer hits I don't see any way that he stays in Dayton for too long. Stubbs may be an enigma but if he is healthy this year and puts up a mid to high .300 obp then he can work his way up through the minors. Could these two guys be in competition for an outfield job? Would the reds move Fraizer to a corner outfield position? Could the reds move Fraizer to 1b? It may be a little far fetched but could the reds look like this in 09

1. Stubbs - CF
2. Keppinger - SS
3. Bruce - RF
4. Phillips - 2B
5. Votto - LF
6. Encarnacion - 3B
7. Fraizer - 1B
8. Ross - C
9. Pitcher

I wouldn't underestimate that fact Wayne wants to prove that his first draft is a success. That is why I can see a Stubbs in CF next season. This team would also be better defensively for a team with solid pitching. I also don't think its too far to think that the reds would sign Dunn to play 1b. I think too many people underestimate his athletic ability and the toll that he takes playing LF with that big of a body. I can also see Arroyo being traded for an offensive bat over the next year.

2010 is the earliest I think we'll see Stubbs in Cincy, if ever.

REDREAD
04-15-2008, 11:56 AM
It certainly would tank if they don't replace him with anybody good, yeah. But that's the thing now that Dunn is a veteran player -- "bargain" is no longer going to be an operative term. The same money spent to extend him could be spent on someone else if need be, and at $15+ million a year, that someone would presumably be pretty good, too.

That's a good point as well, if the Reds could find a good target to spend that money on.

The problem with Reds and payflex though is that Wayne is very tentative about trading prospects for established players. It's just not his style (for example) to flip Malony to a small market team in exchange for a player that is starting to get money in arbitration and pricing himself out of town.

Wayne tends to spend all his FA money on marginal veteran FA that are not very good risks. The only exceptions have been Patterson and Cordero.. Since both of those signings were this year, maybe he's learning it's better to spend money on quality and not quanity...

So, I agree that theoretically the 15 million might make us a better team than resigning Dunn. Don't have a whole lot of confidence in Wayne to implement the plan though.

REDREAD
04-15-2008, 12:04 PM
Patterson most probably wont be back in CF for the reds unless they sign him to a multi year deal. I don't think you shell out money for Patterson if your not for Dunn.
.

A lot depends on the year Patterson has. Will he be so good he prices himself out of town? Will he be good enough that the Reds want him back? This will be good discussion in a few months.

Frankly, I could see signing Patterson simply because no one in the system has his skill set. It's foolish to put all your eggs in Stubb's basket.

If you keep Patterson, you could put Bruce in RF. Then you have the option of putting Dunn or Jr in the last OF slot, or you could try to get a RH hitting OF. Lots of options once you get CF taken care of.

In contrast, if you let Patterson walk, the team is going to be scrambling once again for a CF. Either that, or they are going to live with Bruce in CF which kind of dooms the OF defense compared to Bruce in RF and Patterson in CF.

I think Dunn is a great player, but he's been miscast most of his career here.
He's probably the best #2 hitter in baseball, but he's seldom used there where his high OBP is leveraged. His power keeps making the Reds think he's a 100+ RBI guy in the making, but I just don't think that's his best game (batting #4-6).

Ideally, you keep Dunn and bat him #2, and try to find another RBI bat at another postion.

KronoRed
04-15-2008, 01:11 PM
aging stars(least ones not on the juice) have a long history of being overpaid for little performance. The Reds should pay him his $4M and let him go.
Oh I agree, but Krivky might like the odds on the shorter commitment to JR compared to the 4-6 year one that Dunn will take.

Letting both go would insane. (at this point)

WebScorpion
04-15-2008, 02:24 PM
The whole outfield situation is an interesting matrix of decisions. There are a lot more variables that play into it than we see at first glance. You've got Dunn, who is arguably the best pure offensive threat on the team, but does not fit the 'defense first' philosophy espoused by the front office. You've got Ken Griffey, Jr. who is also still an offensive threat, but a defensive liability in right field...plus he won't be an offensive force for many more years. There is probably room for one defensive liability in the outfield, so one will probably be ousted when Jay Bruce arrives. One of the things to consider is that KGJ would actually be a defensive upgrade in left field. He may not cover as much ground, but he still reads the ball correctly, takes solid routes, and has a plus arm. Also, there is a possibility (remote) that KGJ would accept a bench role. Additionally, Corey Patterson is currently on a one year contract...so he may need to be replaced at the end of 2008 also. As has been pointed out over and over and over, this team could use a right-handed bat with some pop...NONE of the four outfielders mentioned provides that. That should be considered...it would lend some weight to the idea of trading for a right-handed outfielder. On the farm we have some interesting things going on this season. Early indications are that Drew Stubbs late season recovery in 2007 may be permanent...taking more walks, 100% SB success rate, OPS over 900...and he's a right-handed plus defender in center field. He's only in High-A, so he's a good 2 years or more away. A little closer is the switch-hitting BJ Szymanski, who is showing signs of life this spring and right-handed Danny Dorn who has been injured this season but had a solid 2007. So we have some things in the pipeline, which should be considered when designing contracts for the current players and/or anyone picked up in trade. I'm just glad we have these kinds of problems instead of trying to force Brady Clark, Chris Denorfia, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper, etc. types into an every day role. :thumbup:

GAC
04-15-2008, 08:00 PM
There is no way, IMHO, that this FO brings Jr back next year. Looking at the direction WK is trying to take this team, the fact he emphasizes pitching and defense, what they'd have to pay even a "discounted" Jr, that his replacement is sitting down at Louisville - I just don't see it happening.

I think they look at the Dunn and Jr situations as being separate, not inter-related at all, meaning.... that if we lose one, we have to keep the other.

Would I like them to sign Dunn? Yep. But I don't think it would be a complete and total disaster for this team if they don't. His defense, or lack thereof, can easily be replaced. The BIG question is.... can we offset/replace his offensive production with some of the younger players, like a Votto and Bruce?

And if we can vastly improve this pitching - if kids like Volquez, Cueto, and Bruce help us to vastly decrease the "runs allowed" department, then wouldn't help to offset a possible loss of Dunn?