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View Full Version : What if Dunn was DH in Boston, would he put up similar numbers to Ortiz



redlegs2370
04-15-2008, 10:46 AM
I know, If its and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas time all year around. However it seems many Reds fans have been and are very critical of Adam Dunn's production. Personally I think to many fans are too critical of Dunn. Who the fans should be critical of is management, because they have failed to provide Adam with protection from the right side. As I look at Adams production it is amazing what he has put up with the players and different positions in the line-up he has hit.

I bring up David Ortiz because he and Adam both will make $13,000,000 in salary this season. Ortiz is also struggling at the plate going 5-48 to start the season. I decided to compare Ortizís numbers the last 3 seasons and Adams numbers the last 3 seasons.


David Ortiz

Year AB R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB
2005 601 119 47 148 .300 .397 .604 102
2006 558 115 54 137 .287 .413 .636 119
2007 549 116 35 117 .332 .445 .621 111


Adam Dunn

Year AB R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG BB
2005 543 107 40 101 .247 .387 .540 114
2006 561 99 40 92 .234 .365 .490 112
2007 522 101 40 106 .264 .380 .554 101

I know that Ortizís numbers are better but he has the luxury of Manny Ramirez batting behind him everyday for the last 3 seasons. Adam doesnít even have any close to the caliber of Ramirez batting behind him. That being said, I really think that if Adam had a right handed power hitter hitting behind him everyday I donít think it would even be a question about wanting Adam around long term or the pay he would be getting.

If the Reds arenít going to add a right-handed bat behind him then I hope they let him go somewhere, while he is still in his prime.

texasdave
04-15-2008, 11:43 AM
Why bother comparing Dunn's numbers with those of Ortiz if all you are going to do is summarily dismiss them?

He got it!
04-15-2008, 11:43 AM
Also factor in all of the runs Dunn gives up while playing a below average left field. Your point of being protected by Rameriz is valid and well taken, but Ortiz also only has to focus on hitting where Dunn might take a bad play in the field up to the plate with him and not be mentally ready to hit. Every spring Dunn vows to work on his defense and be an improved fielder and every year it is the same thing in the field. To answer your question, I think yes Dunn would have atleast equal stats to Big Pappi if he hit DH with a player the caliber of Rameriz behind him. However he doesn't - he plays left field with Encarnacion behind him but you already addressed that in the Christmas portion of your post. :) Baseball is so much of a numbers/stats game and so much of your numbers are dependant upon ballpark, lineup you are in, who is directly behind you in the lineup, who is directly in front of you in the lineup, etc. A good person to watch this year would be Aaron Rowand. Last year he had a career year posting great numbers across the board while hitting in a mashing Phillies lineup at a great hitters park. Now this year he is batting in a much weaker Giants lineup in a more pitcher friendly park. While he still may have a good year, chances are he will not come close to last years numbers.

BigJohn
04-15-2008, 12:06 PM
2007 Clutch hitting

Ortiz
Runners on-.367
RISP-.362

Dunn
Runners on-.257
RISP-.241

Degenerate39
04-15-2008, 01:40 PM
Dunn would have more protection in the lineup so he'd get better pitches to hit. I think he would do better on a team like Boston.

redlegs2370
04-15-2008, 02:34 PM
2007 Clutch hitting

Ortiz
Runners on-.367
RISP-.362

Dunn
Runners on-.257
RISP-.241

I understand that Ortiz's #'s are better in the clutch but are they skewed because he has Rameriz behind him.

Another factor is Ortiz knows he is going to hit in the #3 slot, Adam has moved back and forth from 2 through 6. In fact when Adam has hit in the cleanup spot he has hit .270 for his career. This number might be more important to look at than trying to split up the left handed hitters, considering the Reds struggles on offense.

Here is Adam's numbers by where he hits in the line-up:

Slot AB AVG HR
2 249 .253 15
3 360 .214 23
4 744 .270 46
5 555 .243 50
6 372 .234 25

Although he has 4 more home runs, in almost 200 more AB's in the 5 slot as opposed to cleanup, he is hitting almost 30 points higher in the cleanup position. Just something think about.

BigJohn
04-15-2008, 02:45 PM
Why keep him and pay him if we can't protect him, Baloney!

redlegs2370
04-15-2008, 02:53 PM
Why keep him and pay him if we can't protect him, Baloney!

That I will agree with you, if you can't protect him then your not being fair to him or this team. I guess the point I was trying to make is Adam is not deserving of the negative criticism that he receives from many Reds fans and that he very well would flourish on many other teams.

BigJohn
04-15-2008, 03:07 PM
If he feels that way then he should ask for so much money that we have to trade him. That is kind of what I have said all along, he will make a great DH somewhere, so go on and get what you can for him and trade him to a team that needs a DH, Boston is not that team.

Nasty_Boy
04-15-2008, 03:31 PM
If he feels that way then he should ask for so much money that we have to trade him. That is kind of what I have said all along, he will make a great DH somewhere, so go on and get what you can for him and trade him to a team that needs a DH, Boston is not that team.


You can't trade him until the middle of June, and then the Reds offense takes a major hit. Put Dunn it the 3 hole with Jr behind him with Kepp and whoever in front of him and you'll see his numbers go up across the board. It is not easy to do what he has done with little protection and terrible OBP me in front of him. There are just not many guys that can walk 100 times, score 100 runs, drive in 100 runs, and homer 40 times. Dunn's RBI numbers would easily increase with better hitters in front and behind him.

Dunn's OBP numbers with RISP show just how little protection he has. Pitchers just don't give him anything to hit with runners on base. It's hard to drive in runs when they are walking you, and then if Dunn goes out of the strike zone to hit say a ground ball to 2nd for an RBI his w/RISP suffers.

2007 : .403
2006 : .394
2005 : .468
2004 : .438

BigJohn
04-15-2008, 03:40 PM
Ortiz has higher OBP with RISP
479
429
462

redlegs2370
04-15-2008, 03:52 PM
Ortiz has higher OBP with RISP
479
429
462

That's because he has a hitter like Ramirez behind him. That is the whole point of making this thread. I really think the numbers Dunn has put up with minimal protection is incredible. If Ortiz was in Cincinnati playing 1st base, I doubt he would not have those kind of numbers with RISP.

757690
04-15-2008, 03:52 PM
Sorry, but the comparison is absurd. Throw the numbers out the window, just watch them bat for a week.

Ortiz is a very aggressive hitter who can crush any pitch in any count. Dunn is a very patient hitter who can only hit a pitchers mistake. That is why Ortiz is such a great clutch hitter and Dunn is not.

Ortiz gets around 50 more hits a year than Dunn, FIFTY! That is a huge difference that can not be explained just by someone hitting behind them. The proof that having Manny hitting behind Ortiz is not the biggest difference, is how Dunn and Ortiz hit with two strikes. If you assume that the biggest effect of having a better hitter behind you in the lineup is that you will get more strikes to hit, and be pitched around less, then that difference should be neutralized greatly when you have two strikes on you. The pitcher can be more aggressive and not worry about walking you.

Here are the numbers for Ortiz and Dunn with two strikes over the last four years:


xxxxx BA OBP SLG OPS
Ortiz .213 .323 .406 .730
Dunn .151 .272 .302 .575

Again that is a huge difference and that is with two strikes against them, so the pitcher can be very aggressive.

David Ortiz is a much, much better hitter than Dunn, and would be not matter who was hitting behind them.

BigJohn
04-15-2008, 04:00 PM
Why would they walk Ortiz to get to Ramirez, it can't be both ways!

texasdave
04-15-2008, 04:05 PM
Last year Ramirez was out for about a month. Let's check out and see how that affected David Ortiz. Through the first 132 games of the season with Manny Ramirez almost exclusively behind him in the lineup Big Papi posted the following numbers:
.322/.433/.577/1.010. Very fine numbers. For the next 24 games in which Ramirez was out of the lineup Ortiz put up the following numbers: .318/.449/.694/1.143. Not the huge dropoff one might expect. In fact, without the 'protection' of Manny Ramirez in the lineup Ortiz's numbers were better almost across the board.