PDA

View Full Version : Wayne watch...



Matt700wlw
04-15-2008, 11:43 PM
There. I started it.

:)

*BaseClogger*
04-15-2008, 11:45 PM
I'm a big supporter of Wayne, but how he handles the roster with Ross coming off the DL, the young guys who could be in the bullpen that are in AAA, and the current Juan Castro situation will be defining, IMO...

edabbs44
04-15-2008, 11:47 PM
I'll stay away from this thread as much as possible because I seem to ignite any Wayne discussion into a 4 alarm fire. But I think it is obvious which side I am on.

HokieRed
04-15-2008, 11:48 PM
July 15 at the latest.

WMR
04-15-2008, 11:50 PM
Dead man walking.

SMcGavin
04-15-2008, 11:58 PM
6-8 in a season when just about everyone predicted .500. Good lord.

KronoRed
04-15-2008, 11:58 PM
He's Safe.

rotnoid
04-15-2008, 11:59 PM
He'll make the year, but I'm not looking for an extension any time soon.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 12:08 AM
He'll make the year, but I'm not looking for an extension any time soon.

This seems right.

RedlegJake
04-16-2008, 12:10 AM
I'll stay away from this thread as much as possible because I seem to ignite any Wayne discussion into a 4 alarm fire. But I think it is obvious which side I am on.

No doubt whatsoever, my friend.

But I'm coming around to your side.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 12:13 AM
He'll make the year, but I'm not looking for an extension any time soon.

Yeah, no point in firing Wayne midseason. Just make sure someone has veto power to any misguided contract extensions he wants to give out. Wouldn't want Wayne to resign Cormier or Castro again on his way out. :lol:

WMR
04-16-2008, 12:15 AM
Yeah, no point in firing Wayne midseason. Just make sure someone has veto power to any misguided contract extensions he wants to give out. Wouldn't want Wayne to resign Cormier or Castro again on his way out. :lol:

It would be really cool if there was some sort of "percentage meter" that would reflect the changing amount of power between Krivsky and Jocketty.

Caveat Emperor
04-16-2008, 12:15 AM
The big league team is in a tailspin.

But, (knock on wood) no major arm injuries in the minors and lots of prospects progressing through on schedule.

Its not like its been ALL bad (see: O'Brien, Dan-O)

Kc61
04-16-2008, 12:16 AM
I think Wayne has done fine. The team was just in a lot worse shape than everyone said. Lots of change needed. Some money to spend but not a huge amount by baseball standards. So Wayne had a big overhaul on his hands.

The pitching looks better to me. There are good young guys in the system. To win soon, the offense needs to be bolstered promptly. And some major decisions on young talent -- every prospect is not a keeper. I think Wayne understands this.

And Jocketty is right there, I'm sure he's involved in personnel decisions.

Wayne should be safe for awhile but has more work to do.

RedEye
04-16-2008, 12:20 AM
It would be really cool if there was some sort of "percentage meter" that would reflect the changing amount of power between Krivsky and Jocketty.

And it would be REALLY cool if it could go next to those Pepsi smokestacks in the outfield! :D

WMR
04-16-2008, 12:21 AM
And it would be REALLY cool if it could go next to those Pepsi smokestacks in the outfield! :D

:lol:

Talk about a conversation piece!

VR
04-16-2008, 12:33 AM
Wayne watch...

I'd say he's done ok, but a little early to reward him w/ a watch.:dunno:

WVRedsFan
04-16-2008, 12:51 AM
Like some others, I don't have much for Krivsky. Most of the love he gets is for improving the pitching staff. You know those guys that continue to allow more runs than we're scoring. He's responsible for Arroyo, but that isn't looking so great anymore. He traded for Volquez, but the jury's out on him. Fogg is a mistake, and Harang and Cueto were here when he got here. That means he brought in Arroyo and Fogg. Exemplary? The bullpen is a mess and will continue to be. He did bring in a very expensive Cordero, who never gets to pitch because we don't have many leads in the 9th. And he extended Coffey (what a brilliant move that was) and gave Cromier an extra year. Need I mention Stanton?

On the offensive side, he brought in two octegarians (Hatteberg and Conine) to play first. He did well with Phillips. Gave Gonzo a three year deal and he hasn't even played one full season and won't likely play a second until late (not WK's fault, I know). He brought in Corey Patterson who I predict Reds fans will hate by July, David Ross, who simply is not that good. He gave contracts to Juan Castro when no one else wanted him, and left the club without adequate right-handed hitting.

I can't see why people love him. I also think that if I live to be 100, the Reds are still losing, and Krivsky is still here, I'll continue to hear about what a mess this franchise was and it's going to take a little more time for the Reds to win because of the mess. Good grief.

Like edabbs, it's best I stay away because you know how I feel.

reds44
04-16-2008, 01:01 AM
Nobody is getting fired when they are 2 games below .500 in April. The Reds are 2 games away from going home with people feeling decent about the team.

5 days ago we were talking aout this team being a playoff team. It's a long season, and we all have concerns about the team.

WVRedsFan
04-16-2008, 02:11 AM
Nobody is getting fired when they are 2 games below .500 in April. The Reds are 2 games away from going home with people feeling decent about the team.

5 days ago we were talking aout this team being a playoff team. It's a long season, and we all have concerns about the team.

Yet, when the flaws are obvious, why not change? Is there some rule that says that if you are only 2 games over .500, that no changes are needed? Should the fan base be destined to watch bad baseball all year just because we're only 2 games over?

It should be obvious to anyone that we have problems that must be addressed (like the lack of right-handed punch and lineup construction), so why not make the changes now? Because we are on the right track? Seems that for the last three seasons we have been on the right track according to some, but the result is the same time after time.

When you pay ungodly money for a closer who doesn't get to close, you might think there is something wrong. So let's take it to July and make some changes? Maybe we should look at the leadership in the front office. Oh, I forgot. There hasn't been enought time. Not enough time to figure out you are venerable to leftty pitching? Not enough time to figure the bullpen is less than what is needed?

princeton
04-16-2008, 07:08 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds

RFS62
04-16-2008, 07:32 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds


Yep.

Ltlabner
04-16-2008, 07:32 AM
5 days ago we were talking aout this team being a playoff team. It's a long season, and we all have concerns about the team.

Are you suggesting RZ can be schitzo about the Reds depending on how well they are/aren't not playing?

That the haters get quiet when they win, and scream when they lose?

That the lovers predict world series rings when they win, and get defensive when they lose?

Holy crap. That's some wild stuff there dude.

Tommyjohn25
04-16-2008, 09:19 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds

Bingo. It's amazing how some Reds fans don't see this. It's a 4 game losing streak in April, get over it. What do you want Wayne to do about it? Get rid of the players who are most at fault? Fine. See ya later EE and Dunn. I don't think so.

Always Red
04-16-2008, 09:33 AM
Are you suggesting RZ can be schitzo about the Reds depending on how well they are/aren't not playing?

That the haters get quiet when they win, and scream when they lose?

That the lovers predict world series rings when they win, and get defensive when they lose?

Holy crap. That's some wild stuff there dude.

And you were kind enough not to even bring up our quarterly thread on the merits/faults of one Peter Edward Rose. ;)

RZ is a manic-depressive place by definition, as you summarize above.

puca
04-16-2008, 09:41 AM
I'm just glad he didn't blink and deal Cueto.

I have disliked many of his moves, but I can forgive a lot for that one.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 10:09 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds


I wouldn't mind keeping Wayne around as a special assistant to the GM in charge of bottom feeding. That's his true (and perhaps only) talent.

I don't want him constructing a team and handing out FA contracts and contract extensions. That's where he does the most damage.

We will wait and see what the Reds' W-L record is at the end of the year.
It's looking like the third straight sub-500 season. Sure, the starting pitching has gotten better, but every other part of the team has gotten worse since he's arrived, and he's spent a lot of money in the process.

It's good to be excited about this rotation, but it takes more than 4 starting pitchers to have a winning baseball team.

WVRedsFan
04-16-2008, 10:24 AM
I said I'd stay away, but I need to ask one question, or maybe two.

What do you see in Wayne that makes you want to extend him and why would some other club want him?

Don't give me the pat answers that the club was in such a mess that it's going to take decades to correct it. We've already heard that too many times.

I've liked what he has done lately even though we haven't seen much in the way of results so far (and yes, it's early), but the flaws reach out and grab you. We might turn this around and win 86, as I predicted, but it's likely that we'll languish around 78-79 wins for this year. Give me hope, guys. I really need it.

princeton
04-16-2008, 10:25 AM
I wouldn't mind keeping Wayne around as a special assistant to the GM in charge of bottom feeding. That's his true (and perhaps only) talent.


if there were a special assistant in charge of complaining and misreading, you'd have tenure :D

upon hiring WayneK, the Reds really shouldn't have been able to compete until 2011 or 2012. The on-hand talent, farm talent, developmental system and the contracts were that screwed up. The only way around it was to have quickly put in a development system that could produce arms in particular, out of a system that hadn't produced an arm in 20 freaking years, and to pluck key big league talent out of thin air.

so, key big league talent HAS been plucked out of thin air, a major league arm has finally been produced, and more arms seem on the verge. It's a total turnaround, and has fast-forwarded a bad program by several years.

these are good things.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 10:29 AM
if there were a special assistant in charge of complaining and misreading, you'd have tenure :D

upon hiring WayneK, the Reds really shouldn't have been able to compete until 2011 or 2012. The on-hand talent, farm talent, developmental system and the contracts were that screwed up. The only way around it was to have quickly put in a development system that could produce arms in particular, out of a system that hadn't produced an arm in 20 freaking years, and to pluck key big league talent out of thin air.

so, key big league talent HAS been plucked out of thin air, a major league arm has finally been produced, and more arms seem on the verge. It's a total turnaround, and has fast-forwarded a bad program by several years.

these are good things.

And his draft picks?

Puffy
04-16-2008, 10:30 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds

For what?

For his drafting of Drew Stubbs? For the Trade? For bringing up Homer Bailey when everyone and their brother knew it was a full year too soon? For his continious stellar building of a bullpen? For signing Gonzalez for his defense when his defense is vastly overrated? For not trading Cueto when he forced out the man who discovered Cueto? For having the second highest paid closer in baseball when you have a team that will be lucky to make it to .500?

Look, I wasn't excited about this season even before it began. So I have no dog in this show with regards to being 6-8 right now cause this is pretty much what I expected - a team that isn't bad but isn't close to playoff caliber. But to extend Krivsky when the guy has shown no clue how to find good offensive players (even Phillips, his coup, is a average driven, power aided player - Gonzalez won't walk, Ross doesn't walk except for when he gets pitched around in the 8th spot, Patterson, as much as I love his D, won't walk, Bako, Moeller, Keppinger is average driven - forget about Wayne understanding the value of finding on base strong players, no, he has shown no affinity for that whatsoever). He has shown no clue what it takes to put together a good to better than good bullpen. The only thing I can give him credit for is holding onto Cueto and getting Volquez (and I still stay he found the right target but traded away the wrong soldier)

Then again, I'm biased. I am one of the few who hated the hiring of Wayne the day it happened, so maybe my judgment is based on that. But still, arguing he's done a good job is one thing, but saying we should extend him today, that I don't get.

PuffyPig
04-16-2008, 10:31 AM
And he extended Coffey (what a brilliant move that was) ....

Giving an arbitration eligible player a one year contract is an extension?

With or without the "extension", Coffey is making what he would have anyway.

bucksfan2
04-16-2008, 10:36 AM
I said I'd stay away, but I need to ask one question, or maybe two.

What do you see in Wayne that makes you want to extend him and why would some other club want him?

Don't give me the pat answers that the club was in such a mess that it's going to take decades to correct it. We've already heard that too many times.

I've liked what he has done lately even though we haven't seen much in the way of results so far (and yes, it's early), but the flaws reach out and grab you. We might turn this around and win 86, as I predicted, but it's likely that we'll languish around 78-79 wins for this year. Give me hope, guys. I really need it.

What did you expect during his first few years as the reds GM?

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 10:45 AM
What did you expect during his first few years as the reds GM?

I think Wayne has been sufficiently pardoned for his first two years on the job. Time for some traction.

Will M
04-16-2008, 10:46 AM
And his draft picks?

The time to rate the 2006 draft is ~2011 & the 2007 draft ~2012.
To do so earlier is way way premature based on say the early struggles of a couple of high picks.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 10:47 AM
The time to rate the 2006 draft is ~2011 & the 2007 draft ~2012.
To do so earlier is way way premature based on say the early struggles of a couple of high picks.

Draft picks become commodities when they become tradeable.

Tommyjohn25
04-16-2008, 10:48 AM
The time to rate the 2006 draft is ~2011 & the 2007 draft ~2012.
To do so earlier is way way premature based on say the early struggles of a couple of high picks.

You mean put away the proverbial crystal ball and actually WATCH AND SEE what pans out with these KIDS? The horror....

IslandRed
04-16-2008, 10:49 AM
upon hiring WayneK, the Reds really shouldn't have been able to compete until 2011 or 2012. The on-hand talent, farm talent, developmental system and the contracts were that screwed up.

Yep.

I'm not an unconditional fan of Wayne's and there's plenty to nitpick. But when he took over the organization, from top to bottom, we had exactly one strength -- slugging at the major-league level. Everything else about the organization was junk, to be charitable. While recognizing that the big club isn't yet where it needs to be, in the big picture, the organization is exponentially better off now than it was in February 2006. And I don't buy the "well, it couldn't help but get better" dismissal; baseball history has shown that teams are perfectly capable of staying at the bottom indefinitely.

Benihana
04-16-2008, 10:51 AM
if I'm Reds, I'd extend Krivsky's contract immediately

if I'm another team's owner, I'd look into hiring him away from the Reds

With.

Benihana
04-16-2008, 10:58 AM
For what?

For his drafting of Drew Stubbs? For the Trade? For bringing up Homer Bailey when everyone and their brother knew it was a full year too soon? For his continious stellar building of a bullpen? For signing Gonzalez for his defense when his defense is vastly overrated? For not trading Cueto when he forced out the man who discovered Cueto? For having the second highest paid closer in baseball when you have a team that will be lucky to make it to .500?

Look, I wasn't excited about this season even before it began. So I have no dog in this show with regards to being 6-8 right now cause this is pretty much what I expected - a team that isn't bad but isn't close to playoff caliber. But to extend Krivsky when the guy has shown no clue how to find good offensive players (even Phillips, his coup, is a average driven, power aided player - Gonzalez won't walk, Ross doesn't walk except for when he gets pitched around in the 8th spot, Patterson, as much as I love his D, won't walk, Bako, Moeller, Keppinger is average driven - forget about Wayne understanding the value of finding on base strong players, no, he has shown no affinity for that whatsoever). He has shown no clue what it takes to put together a good to better than good bullpen. The only thing I can give him credit for is holding onto Cueto and getting Volquez (and I still stay he found the right target but traded away the wrong soldier)

Then again, I'm biased. I am one of the few who hated the hiring of Wayne the day it happened, so maybe my judgment is based on that. But still, arguing he's done a good job is one thing, but saying we should extend him today, that I don't get.

Couldn't disagree more with everything you said.

Wayne Krivsky is the best GM this club has had in a long time. He has completely transformed this franchise from a disaster to a team with a decent present but more importantly a very bright future. Some of the assets he inherited (Dunn, EdE), some he acquired (Phillips, Volquez, Arroyo), and some were cultivated under his watch (Cueto, Bruce, Votto). However the one thing that remains clear is that he has set up this team in a position to contend for a long time. Yes, they absolutely have some holes that they must fill, but show me a team that doesn't. He has shown that he is masterful at working contracts which is an invaluable skill to a small-market team. Let him use this talent to re-sign Dunn, and then give Krivsky an extension himself.

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 11:02 AM
And his draft picks?

He's had, what? Two drafts? And what's the average turnaround time on drafting players and their subsequent arrival in the big leagues? It's way too early to determine who successful or unsuccessful teams were with their last two drafts (out of the 2006 draft, only five players have made their ML debut).

In fact, WK's seeming philosophy of moving players step by step through the minors, while maddening to many, I think serves the ultimate development goals of a team looking to have an ongoing flow of players readily available.

As to the "bottom feeding" tag some want to put on him, I think he's gradually been plucking up decent players being discarded by other clubs. On that, you win some, you lose some. But he really hasn't completely bottom fed - Bottom feeding was Jim Bowden's MO - but not many of the types Jimbo brought in to camp have made this club.

Overall the Reds organization is in dramatically better shape now than it was when Wayne Krivsky came on board. He hasn't been perfect, but he's gradually reshaping the Reds into the type organization Bob Howsam oversaw, IMO. Remember it took Howsam until his fourth season to reach the post-season.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 11:02 AM
Wayne's the best GM at encouraging fans to put off evaluating his performance.

In all seriousness, though, I'm fine with giving him some more time. It's not as though the Reds are going to hire a forward-thinking numbers-driven GM anytime soon; he's not the worst second- or third-fiddle.

princeton
04-16-2008, 11:10 AM
And his draft picks?


2006 draft should have been a disaster because Krivsky was hired three months before draft and had to replace the director. Yet after only two years, Krivsky has three players in AA already, and Roenicke has trade value right now. It looks like several will join them in AA soon. That's a good thing.

DanO's first draft produced only five AA players or above after four years. Only Bailey ever really had trade value.

Tommyjohn25
04-16-2008, 11:10 AM
Wayne's the best GM at encouraging fans to put off evaluating his performance.

In all seriousness, though, I'm fine with giving him some more time. It's not as though the Reds are going to hire a forward-thinking numbers-driven GM anytime soon; he's not the worst second- or third-fiddle.

Well I for one am not putting off anything. I have evaluated his performance, and i think he's done a hell of a job considering where this franchise was three years ago.

SMcGavin
04-16-2008, 11:12 AM
forget about Wayne understanding the value of finding on base strong players, no, he has shown no affinity for that whatsoever.

One of the first things Wayne did was extend Adam Dunn, who virtually defines an on base strong player. And you can say Keppinger's OBP is average-driven if you want, but the fact is that Keppinger is absolutely an on base strong player. His OBP was .400 last year. Wayne also brought in Scott Hattberg. So I think your criticism of him as someone who doesn't understand the value of OBP is misguided.

Not every player Wayne brings in is going to be an on base king, especially when he is mostly grabbing his offensive finds off the scrap heap. There's a reason they were there in the first place. But to knock the additions of a guy like Phillips because he isn't on base strong is silly. Should Krivsky have passed on the opportunity to nab Phillips because he didn't fit the a high OBP mold? Or similarly passed on Patterson because he doesn't walk enough, and went with a Hopper/Freel CF until Bruce was ready?

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 11:14 AM
2006 draft should have been a disaster because Krivsky was hired three months before draft and had to replace the director. Yet after only two years, Krivsky has three players in AA already, and Roenicke has trade value right now. It looks like several will join them in AA soon. That's a good thing.

DanO's first draft produced only five AA players or above after four years. Only Bailey ever really had trade value.

Yeah, no one will get rich comparing his acumen to Dan O'Brien. But as I said, I'm fine with giving the guy more time; he'll need it to demonstrate he's making a positive impact on the MLB product.

westofyou
04-16-2008, 11:14 AM
If Wayne gets canned 2 weeks in I guess The Rockies should can their GM too..


It was the eighth time this season Colorado was held to two runs or less, most in the majors:

And then there is the Tigers..


Detroit is last in AL pitching and has scored the second-fewest runs.

And on and on and on...

Hey.. don't pay attention to me... I'm obviously askew and have been fooled by Waynes flashy moves.

princeton
04-16-2008, 11:14 AM
arguing he's done a good job is one thing, but saying we should extend him today, that I don't get.

um, you extend him because he's done a good job and because his contract's nearly up.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 11:21 AM
At this point firing Wayne would be bad because the team has so many young arms in high-leverage positions that I don't want to throw the team into a chaos that would disturb even more how they're being deployed. Right now this franchise is still in total personnel chaos up and down the system, so I really think the kids will need some stability as a stay against too much FO entropy. I'm in favor of stability even if it's mediocre.

Tommyjohn25
04-16-2008, 11:24 AM
Hey.. don't pay attention to me... I'm obviously askew and have been fooled by Waynes flashy moves.

Me too. We're dumb. ;):D

WVRedsFan
04-16-2008, 11:34 AM
Thanks for the answers, guys.

I'm really not in favor of canning him this soon, but I think I'd have to think long and hard after the season before renewing his contract. If it's the future we're renewing him on, then so be it. Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope it pans out. But if this club in its third year on his watch continues to win +/- 75 games and an under .500 record, he's probably going to be let go. I don't fathom Mr. C as being very patient right now.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 12:04 PM
Put me in the class in favor of extending Krivsky.

Chip R
04-16-2008, 12:16 PM
What I think the Reds need to do is fire Wayne since the team is on a 4 game losing streak. If they lose another game, fire that guy and hire someone else and so on. If RedsZone thinks the #1 draft pick is a bust, fire that guy too. Only then will people be satisfied.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 12:20 PM
upon hiring WayneK, the Reds really shouldn't have been able to compete until 2011 or 2012. The on-hand talent, farm talent, developmental system and the contracts were that screwed up. The only way around it was to have quickly put in a development system that could produce arms in particular, out of a system that hadn't produced an arm in 20 freaking years, and to pluck key big league talent out of thin air.


Do you honestly think this team is going to be able to compete before 2011-12 without a huge influx of cash (spent wisely)?

He's done some good things, and he's squandered other opportunities (Kearns, Lopez, Cormier, Gonzo, Freel extension, etc). He's wasted far more money than Bowden did by throwing money at bad or replacable players.

Arroyo was a good add. Great trade. Volquez may turn out to be a good trade, but he didn't exactly pull that out of thin air. He paid a pretty steep price.

Wayne has also bought in a lot of very bad pitching. Don't forget that.
Bowden was criticized for the constant stream of pitching auditions. Wayne isn't that much different, but Wayne had the advantage of inheriting Harang, Cueto, and Bailey.

Wayne has no clue on how to build a bullpen. None at all.



so, key big league talent HAS been plucked out of thin air, a major league arm has finally been produced, and more arms seem on the verge. It's a total turnaround, and has fast-forwarded a bad program by several years.
.

Too early to say it's a turnaround. Let's see the club play better than .500 under his watch. It seems like he is sacrificing position player depth for pitching (which you really like), but is failing to replace the offense/defense he deals away for the most part. He has also benefited from DanO's work.

It's too early to judge his drafts yet, IMO. I'm not saying they are good or bad, just too early.

I'm not so sure about having a lot of young pitching "on the verge" outside of Homer. Unless "on the verge" means longer than 2 years away.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 12:27 PM
um, you extend him because he's done a good job and because his contract's nearly up.

No hurry. Might as well see how this year unfolds. It's not as if another team can steal him from us midseason.

I'm not saying to fire him immediately. There's no point in that. But there's no way I extend him immediately now as you propose. Why do that, especially if Jocketty might take the job (or a bigger role than he has now).

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 12:33 PM
I'm not saying to fire him immediately. There's no point in that. But there's no way I extend him immediately now as you propose. Why do that, especially if Jocketty might take the job (or a bigger role than he has now).

I like Walt Jocketty, I like having him in the organization but I think some on here may overrate him just a bit. People forget he made a worse trade than "the trade". He dealt Dan Haren and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. Haren went on to develop into an ace while Barton is one of the better hitting prospects in the game. Meanwhile, Mulder has been injured and hasn't exactly pitched well when healthy. And what young pitching did St. Louis develop under his watch besides Haren, who he gave away?

SMcGavin
04-16-2008, 12:36 PM
Arroyo was a good add. Great trade. Volquez may turn out to be a good trade, but he didn't exactly pull that out of thin air. He paid a pretty steep price.


Actually Volquez pretty much was out of thin air since the asset used to acquire him was picked up at no cost.

Strikes Out Looking
04-16-2008, 12:58 PM
As someone who remembers the reigns of Dick Wagner and Jim Bowden, I am quite content with Wayne for at least the next couple of years. Regardless of the teams play in the last few days, I like the fact that the farm system and the major league roster is fairly well stocked with young pitchers who can miss bats.

princeton
04-16-2008, 12:59 PM
No hurry. Might as well see how this year unfolds. It's not as if another team can steal him from us midseason.

it's more subtle: if a GM thinks that he has to win, then he might make a trade for today by dealing way too much of tomorrow. The Reds are fortunate that this hasn't happened yet. It's time to make a commitment.

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 01:08 PM
it's more subtle: if a GM thinks that he has to win, then he might make a trade for today by dealing way too much of tomorrow. The Reds are fortunate that this hasn't happened yet. It's time to make a commitment.

Subtle is probably the right word for it. Frankly, someone else mentioned this already, but perhaps the best moves WK made this offseason were the non-moves - he resisted the absolutely "win now" clamor and did not trade either Cueto or Bruce. That's long term thinking; not the "win at all costs" now that folks want.

Benihana
04-16-2008, 01:09 PM
I like Walt Jocketty, I like having him in the organization but I think some on here may overrate him just a bit. People forget he made a worse trade than "the trade". He dealt Dan Haren and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. Haren went on to develop into an ace while Barton is one of the better hitting prospects in the game. Meanwhile, Mulder has been injured and hasn't exactly pitched well when healthy. And what young pitching did St. Louis develop under his watch besides Haren, who he gave away?

The funny thing is, the same people that want to get rid of Wayne are the same people that were upset when we didn't trade the farm for Bedard. The Mulder deal was pretty much the exact equivalent of trading the farm for Bedard. We saw how that one worked out, now with Bedard headed to the DL, Cueto/Votto blossoming in the bigs and Bruce/Bailey dazzling in AAA, maybe this one isn't far behind- only this one Wayne didn't make.

princeton
04-16-2008, 01:10 PM
I like Walt Jocketty, I like having him in the organization but I think some on here may overrate him just a bit.

he's very good at taking 85 win talent to pennant winner. I don't think that it's possible to overrate that. He would have been a poor choice for Reds job 2 or 4 years ago, but perhaps not now.


it's just not clear to me that he's a successor. For all we know, he's waiting for a job to open in a bigger market. He has earned it.

Benihana
04-16-2008, 01:13 PM
he's very good at taking 85 win talent to pennant winner. I don't think that it's possible to overrate that. He would have been a poor choice for Reds job 2 or 4 years ago, but perhaps not now.


it's just not clear to me that he's a successor. For all we know, he's waiting for a job to open in a bigger market. He has earned it.

I don't know, I think the fact that he's here now indicates that he might be willing to take the reins if given the chance. I mean, if you'd accept a low level job with one organization, wouldn't you accept the higher level job with the same organization?

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 01:23 PM
I had to chuckle at this quote from Piniella about the Chicago Media - he might have been talking about Redszone and our attitude towards the team!

Cubs manager Lou Piniella on the Chicago media: "They're all gloom and doom. If you lose one game, the season is over and we shouldn't even come back the next day."

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:25 PM
um, you extend him because he's done a good job and because his contract's nearly up.

That's the same mistake Wayne has made with Freel, Cormier, and others.. extending them before he had to.

I guess we'll never agree what the criteria for "good job" is.

He's done some good and some bad.. Let's see if he can finally get the team over 500 this season. If Wayne can get the team over 500 this year, then I'd consider resigning him. Otherwise, three straight years of sub-500 ball, due largely to poor decisions of Wayne isn't a good job at all.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 01:31 PM
he's very good at taking 85 win talent to pennant winner. I don't think that it's possible to overrate that. He would have been a poor choice for Reds job 2 or 4 years ago, but perhaps not now.


it's just not clear to me that he's a successor. For all we know, he's waiting for a job to open in a bigger market. He has earned it.

From what I've read, he likes the role he's in now. He gets to spend more time with his family in St. Louis in this role as opposed to being a GM. I'm not so sure he wants to be a GM again. In fact, I think he actually hinted at that after the Reds hired him.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:33 PM
I like Walt Jocketty, I like having him in the organization but I think some on here may overrate him just a bit. People forget he made a worse trade than "the trade". He dealt Dan Haren and Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. Haren went on to develop into an ace while Barton is one of the better hitting prospects in the game. Meanwhile, Mulder has been injured and hasn't exactly pitched well when healthy. And what young pitching did St. Louis develop under his watch besides Haren, who he gave away?

Reyes and Wainwright. IIRc, he also picked up a young Marquis in a trade. He snagged Suppan and Carpenter. He picked up some good bullpen arms. He had a great pitching coach to work with the people he needed. He had a good field manager.

I don't care how a team gets the talent they need. For example, let's say Ceuto and Volquez both end up being great. Is Volquez's value somehow diminished because he wasn't orginally signed by the Reds? Of course not.

The Mulder trade was one of the few mistakes Jocketty made.

The guy brought in Edmunds and Rolen for pennies on the dollar. He always found a way to get the Cardinals what they needed when they were close in the race. I don't think Wayne has that talent.. In 2006, he thought Maj was the answer.

Wayne does have a talent for sifting through the waiver pile and plucking talent that other teams view as superfluous. But he has many weakness. It takes more than a promising young pitching rotation to win, as we will see this year.

princeton
04-16-2008, 01:34 PM
That's the same mistake Wayne has made with Freel, Cormier, and others.. extending them before he had to.

you make a lot of your decisions based on poor memory, which is problematic.

Cormier's extension was a "had to" because he had a no-trade that he wouldn't otherwise waive

Freel (and Coffey) would never have been nontendered, so their extensions are moot.

the contracts have not been the problem. in fact, the contracts are a big plus of the Krivsky regime.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:35 PM
Actually Volquez pretty much was out of thin air since the asset used to acquire him was picked up at no cost.

Nope.. Hamilton had value above zero when he was traded for Volquez.

Picking up Hamilton in rule V? Genius.

Trading Hamilton for Volquez.. the jury is still out.

If we treat Hamilton as "found money", then trading him for anything could be rationalized as a good trade.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:37 PM
it's more subtle: if a GM thinks that he has to win, then he might make a trade for today by dealing way too much of tomorrow. The Reds are fortunate that this hasn't happened yet. It's time to make a commitment.

Wayne isn't going to do that. If anything, Wayne is too patient. He will always prefer trading for the prospect instead of the Haren. Wayne is not going to sell out the future. He overvalues prospects. We don't have to worry about that at all.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 01:37 PM
Reyes and Wainwright. IIRc, he also picked up a young Marquis in a trade. He snagged Suppan and Carpenter. He picked up some good bullpen arms. He had a great pitching coach to work with the people he needed. He had a good field manager.

I don't care how a team gets the talent they need. For example, let's say Ceuto and Volquez both end up being great. Is Volquez's value somehow diminished because he wasn't orginally signed by the Reds? Of course not.

The Mulder trade was one of the few mistakes Jocketty made.

The guy brought in Edmunds and Rolen for pennies on the dollar. He always found a way to get the Cardinals what they needed when they were close in the race. I don't think Wayne has that talent.. In 2006, he thought Maj was the answer.

Wayne does have a talent for sifting through the waiver pile and plucking talent that other teams view as superfluous. But he has many weakness. It takes more than a promising young pitching rotation to win, as we will see this year.

Reyes? He's horrible. That doesn't count.

He traded JD Drew for Wainwright. That was a good move but Wainwright didn't come through the system which was my point. No it doesn't diminish the value if acquire a young player through a trade, but it's better if you can develop your own talent so that you're not forced to deal away talent to get talent.

Will M
04-16-2008, 01:39 PM
From what I've read, he likes the role he's in now. He gets to spend more time with his family in St. Louis in this role as opposed to being a GM. I'm not so sure he wants to be a GM again. In fact, I think he actually hinted at that after the Reds hired him.

Jocketty is like a chairman of the board. Older. Years of experience/wisdom.
Oversees everthing.

Wayne is like a CEO. LONG hours of grinding tedious work. Often this causes a CEO to miss the 'big picture' which is why the older wiser chairman is helpful.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 01:40 PM
Jocketty is like a chairman of the board. Older. Years of experience/wisdom.
Oversees everthing.

Wayne is like a CEO. LONG hours of grinding tedious work. Often this causes a CEO to miss the 'big picture' which is why the older wiser chairman is helpful.

"Tedious" may be the most fitting word in the thread. The tedium awaiting an aria.

TRF
04-16-2008, 01:42 PM
I'm in the camp that wouldn't fire WK. Not sure I'd give him an extension either. For all his success, he's done tremendous damage too. The trade set the Reds back at least two years. The return on the trade was what he should have gotten for Kearns alone. And no, it doesn't matter one bit what Kearns, FeLo and Wagner have done since. Their value at the time was high. Daryl Thompson may be the saving grace of the trade, and he's at least 2 years away, though he's building value right now.

Arroyo, I've never been sold on. At best, he's a number 3. His ceiling might be a #2, but he rarely pitches at his ceiling. Right now, he's a #4. Krivsky inherited half of his starting 8: Dunn, Jr., EE, Votto. He inherited Freel, and baseball's best prospect Bruce. He walked into a situation that handed him Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey.

So, he's added Phillips, Ross, Arroyo, Patterson and Volquez. He took a no risk shot at Phillips on a team with 4 2B, and none of them worth half a crap. But it was a very good gamble. Ross? big deal. He's had one good season. Volquez was a masterful move. I absolutely love Patterson's glove and hate his bat. a .280 OBP? seriously? Getting Maloney for Lohse was a good deal.

And his drafts are so-so. better talent late than early.

Krivsky still can't seem to put a bullpen together.

The man is an enigma.

redsrule2500
04-16-2008, 01:47 PM
Wayne has flashes of brilliance, and he seems like the real deal...but we're still losing.

flyer85
04-16-2008, 01:47 PM
like most GMs ... some good some bad. Safe to say he could be worse but the current Reds roster is seriously flawed and not set up to be a contender. How much you want to pin it on WK is up to you.

princeton
04-16-2008, 01:48 PM
Wayne isn't going to do that. If anything, Wayne is too patient. He will always prefer trading for the prospect instead of the Haren. Wayne is not going to sell out the future. He overvalues prospects. We don't have to worry about that at all.


I remember someone saying that about a CEO who embezzled a lot of money. "Sure we should have established more controls, but he just wasn't the type of guy who would do that. If anything, he seemed too principled."

better to resolve the situation before it bites you. People surprise. if you don't plan, shame on you.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:48 PM
you make a lot of your decisions based on poor memory, which is problematic.

Cormier's extension was a "had to" because he had a no-trade that he wouldn't otherwise waive


I do remember that. But that's not a "had to" move. You just tell Cormeir to enjoy finishing the season out in Philly then.. Let the Phills pressure him into accepting the trade. Wayne extended Cormeir under his own free will.
Maybe I worded it wrong, but I remember.






Freel (and Coffey) would never have been nontendered, so their extensions are moot. .

I have never criticized the Coffey extension. I'm one of the few here that still likes Coffey. Coffey makes like 400 or 500k.. no big deal..

Freel was dumb. Why commit 7 million to an oft-injured, declining 4th OF with a drinking problem when you don't have to? Maybe the contract is defensible if Freel was a pending FA, but the Reds already owned his rights for those two years. Even if Freel was a pending FA, you have to ask yourself if he's really a critical piece of the future? Is he easily replacable? The answer is of course that of course Freel is not a critical piece and easily replacable. At one point, Freel OBPed well. That skill was clearly evaporating when Wayne signed him. It was clear that Freel was not a starting player when Wayne signed him.. It's not analogous to the Taubensee signing when the Reds signed Tauby to the salary of a backup player and then planed on making him a starter.






the contracts have not been the problem. in fact, the contracts are a big plus of the Krivsky regime

Yes, the contracts of the Wayne era are a big problem. Just as the Milton contract was a problem. Huge amounts of money tied up in bad risks.
Sure, the Harang and Dunn contracts were good, but only an idiot GM wouldn't have done those. We are so used to the John Allen era that we are thrilled to keep Dunn and Harang. I will even go so far as to say the Arroyo contract was a good risk. But the rest of them.. I can't think of any really great ones. I can think of a lot of bad ones. I will say I am not sure on Phillips' contract. But Castro, Freel, Stanton, AGon, Cormeir, Weathers (too long, didn't trade him last year at the deadline when he should have).. these are not great. While I welcome Cordero to the team, it's hard to say that's a "Great" contract.. we simply outbid everyone.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:52 PM
I remember someone saying that about a CEO who embezzled a lot of money. "Sure we should have established more controls, but he just wasn't the type of guy who would do that. If anything, he seemed too principled."

better to resolve the situation before it bites you. People surprise. if you don't plan, shame on you.


If Wayne felt that pressure, he would've dealt for Haren this past offseason.
He would've traded Bruce for something that would've helped him win this year. That didn't happen.

It's silly to give a GM an extension out of fear he may make a bad trade. If he's so inclined to make a bad trade, he'll do it no matter how many years are on his contract. Also, extending the wrong GM will do much more harm than a hasty trade of Homer (for example).

Your analogy makes little sense.. Are you saying you should fire the CEO because he might embezzle? Ok, but how do you stop his replacement from embezzling?

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 01:56 PM
Reyes? He's horrible. That doesn't count.

He traded JD Drew for Wainwright. That was a good move but Wainwright didn't come through the system which was my point. No it doesn't diminish the value if acquire a young player through a trade, but it's better if you can develop your own talent so that you're not forced to deal away talent to get talent.

ok, if you don't count Reyes, shouldn't the Reds be dinged for Homer and Belisle, considering they've been bad to date?

If you don't give Jocketty credit for Wainwright, then Wayne doesn't get credit for Volquez. Wayne also doesn't get credit for Arroyo because he traded for him.

Wayne also doen't get credit for Homer, Harang or Ceuto, since he inherited them.

So, by that line of thinking, Wayne doesn't get credit for any pitching. :lol: See my point? I don't care how the talent level of the team is increased, I just want it to improve and see the results in the W-L record.

princeton
04-16-2008, 01:58 PM
Your analogy makes little sense.. Are you saying you should fire the CEO because he might embezzle? Ok, but how do you stop his replacement from embezzling?


I've surrendered hope.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-16-2008, 02:00 PM
Nobody is getting fired when they are 2 games below .500 in April. The Reds are 2 games away from going home with people feeling decent about the team.

5 days ago we were talking aout this team being a playoff team. It's a long season, and we all have concerns about the team.

But we see this every year. It's as predictable as the wind.

The team is only 2 games under .500...

It's only May 2 ...

They're only 5 games out ...

It's not even Memorial Day yet ...

They're only 7 games out ...

It's only June 1 ...

Sooner or later, it IS too late. :thumbdown

Cyclone792
04-16-2008, 02:07 PM
And his drafts are so-so. better talent late than early.


I don't concern myself with drafts as much as I do with the overall state of the system. Drafting is just the first step in the process of player development. You can draft all the guys you think are the right guys to draft all you want, but if you don't have the proper development plan, the proper coaching, and the proper instruction for those players, it won't do your organization all that much good.

Before Krivsky arrived, the Reds had piss poor minor league instructors and a piss poor organizational development plan. Player development was non-existent.

One very key and extremely fundamental scenario has unfolded since Krivsky was hired, and that is that the farm system and overall player development program is the best I've ever seen from the Reds. I'm not just saying that as a comparison to the Bowden years either; the Reds have had a great deal of success in building up the farm system to what it is now, and Krivsky deserves some nice praise for that.

You can argue semantics and details all you want, but there isn't anybody who can deny the fact that the Reds farm system has been on a steady upward climb in the last 18 months. Outside of a handful of Votto PAs and Cueto/Bailey innings, none of that system has reached the big league club yet, which means none of the player development plan has had its chance to come to fruition yet. I do have a number of issues with Krivsky myself, but one thing I do want to see is how he can 1) maintain a high caliber player development system, and 2) graduate pieces of that system into pieces that help the big league club either directly via promotions or indirectly via trades.

Krivsky's built a very nice youth foundation; he deserves a chance to see that part of the plan work into the latter stages. And IMO, ultimately how well he can accomplish those latter stages will be what determines his fate as Reds GM.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 02:15 PM
Now that Wayne has been given a 6-year (where did that number come from?) mandate, maybe Bowden can return to the fold after he's gotten the ax in Washington. Perhaps enough collective historical failure can actually fight what's ailing the club, like intellectual chemo.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 02:17 PM
ok, if you don't count Reyes, shouldn't the Reds be dinged for Homer and Belisle, considering they've been bad to date?

If you don't give Jocketty credit for Wainwright, then Wayne doesn't get credit for Volquez. Wayne also doesn't get credit for Arroyo because he traded for him.

Wayne also doen't get credit for Homer, Harang or Ceuto, since he inherited them.

So, by that line of thinking, Wayne doesn't get credit for any pitching. :lol: See my point? I don't care how the talent level of the team is increased, I just want it to improve and see the results in the W-L record.

Reyes turns 27 in October. Bailey turns 22 in May. Big difference there.

I didn't refuse to give credit to Jocketty for acquiring Wainwright. That was a nice trade by WJ. I'm just saying it's better to develop your own talent as opposed to having to deal away talent to get talent.

As for Cueto, he didn't take off until Krivsky got here. Before Wayne got here our top prospects always seemed to get injured and/or have bad seasons and fall of the face of the earth. Since Wayne's arrival the arms have stayed healthy (knock on wood) and the prospects have progressed each season.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 02:19 PM
Speaking of player development--that promotion of Bailey last year ain't lookin' real hot nowadays.

pedro
04-16-2008, 02:21 PM
Speaking of player development--that promotion of Bailey last year ain't lookin' real hot nowadays.

It didn't look so hot then either.

princeton
04-16-2008, 02:22 PM
Speaking of player development--that promotion of Bailey last year ain't lookin' real hot nowadays.

you're always so behind. I was just thinking that it looks pretty good.

seems to have scared him straight.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 02:24 PM
you're always so behind. I was just thinking that it looks pretty good.

seems to have scared him straight.

You're right. Like tough love camp.

MartyFan
04-16-2008, 02:26 PM
Special K is a guru at finding the underachieving star...where he scares me is knowing when to say when to some players and moving on...IE Weathers/Stanton.

So, does firing the GM get Dunn, EE, Junior and a couple others to make more hits, less errors and score more runs?

I don't know if there is any reason for a "Watch" at this time as the organization is still moving in the same direction it was during Spring Training...forward.

princeton
04-16-2008, 02:27 PM
You're right. Like tough love camp.

that's what we're going with until he gets rocked in his next start. Then, it's back to Wayne-ruined-him or DanO-drafted-a-HS-pitcher.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 02:27 PM
Special K is a guru at finding the underachieving star...where he scares me is knowing when to say when to some players and moving on...IE Weathers/Stanton.

So, does firing the GM get Dunn, EE, Junior and a couple others to make more hits, less errors and score more runs?

I don't know if there is any reason for a "Watch" at this time as the organization is still moving in the same direction it was during Spring Training...forward.

A guru who scares 'em straight. Like Dr. Phil.

MartyFan
04-16-2008, 02:28 PM
A guru who scares 'em straight. Like Dr. Phil.

I don't know anything about their lives off the field. :)

edabbs44
04-16-2008, 02:39 PM
Great thread to be watching from the sidelines. A lot of good thoughts in here. Keep up the good work.

Chip R
04-16-2008, 02:40 PM
I've surrendered hope.


Hope is a good thing, Red.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 06:07 PM
[Jockety ] he's very good at taking 85 win talent to pennant winner. I don't think that it's possible to overrate that. He would have been a poor choice for Reds job 2 or 4 years ago, but perhaps not now..

I disagree. I think it's much more difficult to turn a 85 game winner into a pennant than it is to turn a 72 win team (Reds last year) into an 82-85 win team.

The 72 win team will have lots of holes by definition. So there's more ways to improve it. Also, it's easier to incrementally improve a team like last season's Reds.. for example, replacing Milton with Fogg is an upgrade.

The 85 win team will have a better players, and the upgrades will be scarcier to find and more difficult to acquire.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 06:12 PM
I've surrendered hope.


In other words, it's not defensible to give a bad GM an extension in hopes that it prevents him from making a bad trade.

Give me another good reason to give Wayne an extension, instead of fear that he might screw up something on the way out.

I can't recall a former GM that screwed the Reds on his way out to try to keep his job.. They aren't stupid. They aren't going to ruin their chance to get the next job. I don't consider Kullman/Maddox real GMs because they were just puppets of Allen carrying out an ordered fire sale, so they get a free pass for giving away a lot of the team for very little (other than Harang).

pedro
04-16-2008, 06:14 PM
Give me another good reason to give Wayne an extension, instead of fear that he might screw up something on the way out.

.

Because he's done a pretty good job?

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 06:16 PM
Reyes turns 27 in October. Bailey turns 22 in May. Big difference there.

I didn't refuse to give credit to Jocketty for acquiring Wainwright. That was a nice trade by WJ. I'm just saying it's better to develop your own talent as opposed to having to deal away talent to get talent.

As for Cueto, he didn't take off until Krivsky got here. Before Wayne got here our top prospects always seemed to get injured and/or have bad seasons and fall of the face of the earth. Since Wayne's arrival the arms have stayed healthy (knock on wood) and the prospects have progressed each season.

Jocketty had a pending FA to get rid of (Drew), he got a great young pitcher (Wainwright) for him.. Plus, I think he got Marquis as well in that deal. Marquis is no ace, but he's been a very useful pitcher for most of his career. What if Wayne traded Jr or Dunn for the equivalent? Wouldn't that be lauded universally here as a great trade? I think it would (at least for Jr). Why does it matter how you get young pitching? That's what I don't understand. If Volquez turns out to be awesome, that's a feather in Wayne's hat, even though Wayne didn't draft him.. why is that accomplishment belittled?

There's no way to tie cause and effect with Wayne and Ceuto. He had the tools to excell no matter who the GM was.

OldXOhio
04-16-2008, 06:17 PM
and the current Juan Castro situation will be defining, IMO...

I don't know why but I find it hillarious that anyone's future might hinge on a player of this caliber.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 06:18 PM
you're always so behind. I was just thinking that it looks pretty good.

seems to have scared him straight.

That's why we got all these reports in spring training about Bailey being a cocky dude that acted as if he "had it all figured out" and was one of the resaons he was demoted?

Bringing up Homer last year was a mistake. It's silly to think otherwise.
He needed "coddling" not thrown into the fire.

BuckeyeRedleg
04-16-2008, 06:18 PM
I'm willing to give Wayne five more months and then make my decision.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 06:29 PM
Because he's done a pretty good job?

He's done some good and some bad.
In the end, his job is to improve the W-L record.
I think this year is pretty key.

Let's look at the win totals for this franchise since Bowden left.



2004 76 wins (Dan0)
2005 73 wins
2006 80 wins (Wayne)
2007 72 wins
2008 ?


Looks like the franchise has been floundering in both the DanO and Wayne era. Some young talent was added under both GMs, but not enough to make up for the aging/turnover of the rest of the roster.

If Wayne turns in another sub 500 season, how much time should he get?
DanO only got 2 years before he was run out of town, tarred and feathered.
DanO didn't make many moves at all, good or bad. Wayne is more exciting because he churns the roster more, but is he getting results? He got good results by adding Arroyo (and Phillips IIRC) to the core of players he inherited in 2006, but made a lot of mistakes in 2007.. And that has shown up in the W-L.

I think he's at least partially recovered from 2007 in this year, but this team still isn't very good.

IMO, he's had 3 years. If he gets poor results this year, it's time to move on to someone that is hopefully better. Now to be fair, if the Reds finish over 500 this year, then I would change my mind. If the Reds finish over 500 this year, I would probably be willing to extend him. I just don't see that happening.

pedro
04-16-2008, 06:31 PM
Personally, I wouldn't give him an extension right now, but I do think he's done a pretty good job.

nate
04-16-2008, 06:55 PM
That's why we got all these reports in spring training about Bailey being a cocky dude that acted as if he "had it all figured out" and was one of the resaons he was demoted?

I remember a lot of "anonymous" reports from "unnamed scouts" or other "unnamed" sources saying that.

I also remember a lot of "named" sources saying exactly the opposite. Guys like Dusty, Mario Soto, Dave Ross, Chad Moeller, et al.


Bringing up Homer last year was a mistake. It's silly to think otherwise.
He needed "coddling" not thrown into the fire.

He needs what's right for him whether that's fire or coddling.

Matt700wlw
04-16-2008, 06:59 PM
I don't know why but I find it hillarious that anyone's future might hinge on a player of this caliber.

I don't think Juan Castro will make or break Wayne's future, but there's no business that Juan Castro should be on this team, but Wayne refuses to part ways with him...didn't he give him a new deal after The Trade, too to KEEP him here?

One of Wayne's biggest problems is that he's given a lot of bad contracts to bad players, some of which are being paid to not be here, which I'm sure Bob isn't too crazy about.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 07:01 PM
He needs what's right for him whether that's fire or coddling.

Isn't it a GM's job to get this right?

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 07:03 PM
Personally, I wouldn't give him an extension right now, but I do think he's done a pretty good job.

That's fair enough. That is actually my postion.

He did a good job in 2006, and a lousy job in 2007.
That's why I see 2008 as key.
He's shuffled the talent level from position players to the starting rotation. Whether that produces results remains to be seen.

I was actually pretty optimistic before this season began. I thought it was an 80 win team.. Not, I'm not so sure. If Wayne can get to 500 this year, I won't complain if he's retained. So I'm open to bringing him back.

REDREAD
04-16-2008, 07:05 PM
I remember a lot of "anonymous" reports from "unnamed scouts" or other "unnamed" sources saying that.

I also remember a lot of "named" sources saying exactly the opposite. Guys like Dusty, Mario Soto, Dave Ross, Chad Moeller, et al.
.

Regardless, it's hard to rationalize the premature callup as a "good thing".
Of course the fellow players and coaches are going to say good things about him in the press. They want him to succeed and they aren't going to backstab him to the press.

In any event, Bailey is in AAA where he belongs for now. I'm happy about that. Bad move to call him up last year.

nate
04-16-2008, 07:10 PM
Isn't it a GM's job to get this right?

Is it the sort of thing that once it's wrong, it can't be fixed?

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 07:14 PM
Is it the sort of thing that once it's wrong, it can't be fixed?

I don't know; development of minor leaguers, graduating them into the majors is a tricky business. Just ask the Reds.

Unassisted
04-16-2008, 07:21 PM
One of Wayne's biggest problems is that he's given a lot of bad contracts to bad players, some of which are being paid to not be here, which I'm sure Bob isn't too crazy about.
I just wonder whether it sticks in Bob's craw more to pay a Castro and a Stanton being to underperform in the stadium or to watch games from home. The answer to that question factors mightily in how long Wayne plays the hand that he dealt.

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 07:26 PM
One of Wayne's biggest problems is that he's given a lot of bad contracts to bad players, some of which are being paid to not be here, which I'm sure Bob isn't too crazy about.

He has given some bad contracts, "a lot" and eating contracts from time to time, while not desirable, is a part of baseball. I don't think we've eaten much more than most teams have.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2008, 08:08 PM
Jocketty had a pending FA to get rid of (Drew), he got a great young pitcher (Wainwright) for him.. Plus, I think he got Marquis as well in that deal. Marquis is no ace, but he's been a very useful pitcher for most of his career. What if Wayne traded Jr or Dunn for the equivalent? Wouldn't that be lauded universally here as a great trade? I think it would (at least for Jr). Why does it matter how you get young pitching? That's what I don't understand. If Volquez turns out to be awesome, that's a feather in Wayne's hat, even though Wayne didn't draft him.. why is that accomplishment belittled?


You're not reading my posts very well. No where did I say it was a bad thing to acquire young talent via trade. I said it's better to develop your own talent as opposed to trading for it. That's not a knock against his trades or anything close to it. I don't know where you keep getting that from.

TRF
04-16-2008, 08:19 PM
That's fair enough. That is actually my postion.

He did a good job in 2006, and a lousy job in 2007.


funny, but I think he did a better job in 2007 than in 2006. His complete mismanagement of the bullpen in 2006 decimated the Reds down the stretch. "The Trade" was a complete disaster. Post 2006 season, he picked up some very good young talent in Hamilton, Burton and McBeth. Maloney came in 2007. I believe Keppinger was also a post 2006 season acquisition. And as we all know, Hamilton was then flipped for a very real need... QUALITY SP, which Volquez is.

The team on the field may not have performed as well, but Krivsky did a much better job of setting this team up for the future in 2007. 2006 was, IMO, a disaster outside of getting Phillips and to a lesser degree Arroyo. Nothing else he got was worth half a crap.

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 09:28 PM
funny, but I think he did a better job in 2007 than in 2006. His complete mismanagement of the bullpen in 2006 decimated the Reds down the stretch. "The Trade" was a complete disaster. Post 2006 season, he picked up some very good young talent in Hamilton, Burton and McBeth. Maloney came in 2007. I believe Keppinger was also a post 2006 season acquisition. And as we all know, Hamilton was then flipped for a very real need... QUALITY SP, which Volquez is.

The team on the field may not have performed as well, but Krivsky did a much better job of setting this team up for the future in 2007. 2006 was, IMO, a disaster outside of getting Phillips and to a lesser degree Arroyo. Nothing else he got was worth half a crap.

You said far better than I could have what I was thinking. Well said!

HokieRed
04-16-2008, 09:41 PM
I'm not particularly inclined to want to see Wayne go, but I think it's odd that this trade of his rarely gets mentioned. At this point, Justin Germano has pitched 13 innings for the Pads, given up 7 hits, no earned runs, has an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of .77. He was brought in, along with Cueto and Bailey, by Dan O in his all too short tenure here, and given away by Wayne for a couple of very bad months of Rheal Cormier. A likely O'Brien rotation at this point could consist of Harang, Cueto, Bailey, Belisle, Germano (let's say, 4 of those), together with whatever he might have been able to get for a combination of Pena, Kearns, and Lopez. I find it hard to believe he would not have gotten at least an Arroyo for that group. The case can be made for Krivsky, but the fact we have Fogg going tonight instead of Germano does not help make it, IMHO.

redsmetz
04-16-2008, 10:02 PM
I'm not particularly inclined to want to see Wayne go, but I think it's odd that this trade of his rarely gets mentioned. At this point, Justin Germano has pitched 13 innings for the Pads, given up 7 hits, no earned runs, has an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of .77. He was brought in, along with Cueto and Bailey, by Dan O in his all too short tenure here, and given away by Wayne for a couple of very bad months of Rheal Cormier. A likely O'Brien rotation at this point could consist of Harang, Cueto, Bailey, Belisle, Germano (let's say, 4 of those), together with whatever he might have been able to get for a combination of Pena, Kearns, and Lopez. I find it hard to believe he would not have gotten at least an Arroyo for that group. The case can be made for Krivsky, but the fact we have Fogg going tonight instead of Germano does not help make it, IMHO.

We weren't the only organization that gave up on Germano - the Phils non-tendered him after acquiring him from us. I agree that Cormier was a poor acquisition, but so far, I think Germano is about the only minor leaguer that Krivsky traded that has done anything to speak of.

Matt700wlw
04-16-2008, 10:05 PM
Add Fogg to the list of pointless acquistions. We all knew it would be a disaster.

SMcGavin
04-16-2008, 10:11 PM
Nope.. Hamilton had value above zero when he was traded for Volquez.

Picking up Hamilton in rule V? Genius.

Trading Hamilton for Volquez.. the jury is still out.

If we treat Hamilton as "found money", then trading him for anything could be rationalized as a good trade.

If you are evaluating Krivsky's tenure as a whole, which this thread is doing, then Volquez came from nothing. Didn't cost any money, any players, any draft picks. I didn't say the Hamilton-Volquez trade was a "good trade", it may or may not be. I said Krivsky produced a valuable asset at no cost.

edabbs44
04-16-2008, 10:13 PM
funny, but I think he did a better job in 2007 than in 2006. His complete mismanagement of the bullpen in 2006 decimated the Reds down the stretch. "The Trade" was a complete disaster. Post 2006 season, he picked up some very good young talent in Hamilton, Burton and McBeth. Maloney came in 2007. I believe Keppinger was also a post 2006 season acquisition. And as we all know, Hamilton was then flipped for a very real need... QUALITY SP, which Volquez is.

The team on the field may not have performed as well, but Krivsky did a much better job of setting this team up for the future in 2007. 2006 was, IMO, a disaster outside of getting Phillips and to a lesser degree Arroyo. Nothing else he got was worth half a crap.

Some of Wayne's acquisitions get trumpeted way too early.

McBeth was the second coming, then got battered in the show last season. Maloney got beat up in the spring and has been awful so far in AAA this year. Ross was a miracle find until he played a full season last year. Watson was a DP who was on the fast track, then got derailed big time in High A. Need some time to think about Burton still, but he has had a little bit of a rough time this year. Patterson is the new Hamilton, but the law of averages is predicting a huge fall. Keppinger can't keep it up...can he?

I have been seeing a pattern with some of these acquisitions. He acquires so many people, when someone gets off to a hot start Wayne gets praised for finding a new Phillips or Hamilton. Once that star begins to burn out, there's always 2 or 3 new charity cases to put hope into.

HokieRed
04-16-2008, 10:24 PM
I really fear this team is so bad that there will be no alternative for the organization except to feed Wayne to the fans by the 15th of July.

Falls City Beer
04-16-2008, 10:28 PM
You know who's good? The Reds.

SMcGavin
04-16-2008, 11:10 PM
McBeth was the second coming, then got battered in the show last season. Maloney got beat up in the spring and has been awful so far in AAA this year.

OK I have to respond here. McBeth was the second coming? When did anyone say that? And Matt Maloney has pitched like 13 innings this season. You accuse others of evaluating things too early... pot, meet kettle.

edabbs44
04-16-2008, 11:14 PM
OK I have to respond here. McBeth was the second coming? When did anyone say that? And Matt Maloney has pitched like 13 innings this season. You accuse others of evaluating things too early... pot, meet kettle.

You don't remember when McBeth was doing well in AAA and the bullpen was pitching like a Cincy bullpen lat season? The entire board was clamoring for him to get the call because of what he was doing in the minors. Then...nothing.

I find it difficult to put a lot of faith in a guy who had success in the minors and then got dealt for Kyle Lohse. Something doesn't add up with him. He's had a rough start to the season but pitched well tonight, so hopefully I'll be feasting on humble pie at some point. But I just don't see it.

EDIT: Whoops...forgot I was going to be on the sidelines for this one. Just couldn't help myself. Back to your regularly scheduled program.

jojo
04-16-2008, 11:16 PM
Krivsky isn't going anywhere.

SMcGavin
04-16-2008, 11:19 PM
I find it difficult to put a lot of faith in a guy who had success in the minors and then got dealt for Kyle Lohse. Something doesn't add up with him. He's had a rough start to the season but pitched well tonight, so hopefully I'll be feasting on humble pie at some point. But I just don't see it.

I'm not giving you flak for thinking Maloney isn't that great, plenty of people would agree with you. I was giving you flak for citing his handful of innings this season as your reason, during a post that criticized others for rushing to judgement. No problem though and I'll respect your wish to stay out of the WK debate this time.

TRF
04-16-2008, 11:32 PM
Some of Wayne's acquisitions get trumpeted way too early.

McBeth was the second coming, then got battered in the show last season. Maloney got beat up in the spring and has been awful so far in AAA this year. Ross was a miracle find until he played a full season last year. Watson was a DP who was on the fast track, then got derailed big time in High A. Need some time to think about Burton still, but he has had a little bit of a rough time this year. Patterson is the new Hamilton, but the law of averages is predicting a huge fall. Keppinger can't keep it up...can he?

I have been seeing a pattern with some of these acquisitions. He acquires so many people, when someone gets off to a hot start Wayne gets praised for finding a new Phillips or Hamilton. Once that star begins to burn out, there's always 2 or 3 new charity cases to put hope into.

Yep, Maloney had a rough spring, and a rough couple of starts. Tonight, 5 1/3 IP 3 R 1 BB 6K. He's already coming out of it. one start at a time. By your reasoning, The Reds should have DFA'd Harang after his last start. Burton has had a rough time? no, he had one rough outing. 13K's 2 BB's in 7.2 IP is not having a rough time. but hey, don't let any facts get in the way of a good rant.

Patterson is the new Hamilton? Patterson with his .280 OBP?

bwahahahahahaha. heh. no, he's holding a spot in CF for Bruce. He is a fine defender though, but no one is under the illusion that he is suddenly a .900+ OPS beast. If he finshes close to .780 I think most of this board will be stunned.

I don't agree with this "pattern" you see at all. I believe the general concensus of the board is Arroyo is a #3. That Burton was a steal, but may not be the ideal 8th inning guy (I think he is though). Hamilton for Volquez was a win-win.

I'll rip Krivsky all day for the trade. I'll rip him for abysmal choices for the bullpen like Maj, Yan and Joe freaking Mays. I'll rip him for making moves for no reason (Medlock, Cody Ross, Germano). but please, He has done a few things right, and he should be commended for the good moves. The question is has he done more good than harm? The farm looks better, but a lot of that good farm talent came from DanO drafts.

But you act like he's done nothing right.

TRF
04-16-2008, 11:35 PM
I find it difficult to put a lot of faith in a guy who had success in the minors and then got dealt for Kyle Lohse. Something doesn't add up with him. He's had a rough start to the season but pitched well tonight, so hopefully I'll be feasting on humble pie at some point. But I just don't see it.

Johan Santana was a Rule V pick. Kazmir was traded for Victor freaking Zambrano.

edabbs44
04-16-2008, 11:47 PM
Johan Santana was a Rule V pick. Kazmir was traded for Victor freaking Zambrano.

Nice cherrypicking. Let me know when Maloney turns into Johan.

TRF
04-16-2008, 11:58 PM
Santana didn't turn into Santana until he turned into Santana either. I notice you skipped Kazmir. Must have been something wrong if he got traded for Zambrano.

edabbs44
04-16-2008, 11:59 PM
I'll rip Krivsky all day for the trade. I'll rip him for abysmal choices for the bullpen like Maj, Yan and Joe freaking Mays. I'll rip him for making moves for no reason (Medlock, Cody Ross, Germano). but please, He has done a few things right, and he should be commended for the good moves. The question is has he done more good than harm? The farm looks better, but a lot of that good farm talent came from DanO drafts.

But you act like he's done nothing right.

He has definitely done more than a few things right. I have given him plenty of credit and will always give him credit when due.

The Arroyo acquisition was great. Phillips and Hamilton were beyond great. Burton has been a good acquisition so far, especially for a Rule V pick. I also liked the trade of Hamilton for Volquez. Keppinger has been a very pleasant surprise.

I have never dismissed his winning moves.

TRF
04-17-2008, 12:02 AM
He has definitely done more than a few things right. I have given him plenty of credit and will always give him credit when due.

The Arroyo acquisition was great. Phillips and Hamilton were beyond great. Burton has been a good acquisition so far, especially for a Rule V pick. I also liked the trade of Hamilton for Volquez. Keppinger has been a very pleasant surprise.

I have never dismissed his winning moves.

Perhaps, but you have dismissed Burton in this very thread. You have dismissed Maloney despite the fact that he had great success last year, just because he had a slow start this year. You have wrongly equated Patterson to Hamilton in that you think this board equates them.

Seriously, you praise in hindsight without looking at the larger picture which includes the future.

edabbs44
04-17-2008, 12:03 AM
Santana didn't turn into Santana until he turned into Santana either. I notice you skipped Kazmir. Must have been something wrong if he got traded for Zambrano.

Yeah, something was wrong with Duquette's head.

Obviously a huge outlier and I cannot speak for his rationale. If you want to compare Maloney to Kazmir then that's fine. But Maloney wasn't a top prospect in all of baseball at the time of the deal.

edabbs44
04-17-2008, 12:06 AM
Perhaps, but you have dismissed Burton in this very thread. You have dismissed Maloney despite the fact that he had great success last year, just because he had a slow start this year. You have wrongly equated Patterson to Hamilton in that you think this board equates them.

Seriously, you praise in hindsight without looking at the larger picture which includes the future.

This is dismissing?


Need some time to think about Burton still, but he has had a little bit of a rough time this year.


I find it difficult to put a lot of faith in a guy who had success in the minors and then got dealt for Kyle Lohse. Something doesn't add up with him. He's had a rough start to the season but pitched well tonight, so hopefully I'll be feasting on humble pie at some point. But I just don't see it.

I can't have opinions? OK.

Back to the sidelines I go.

TRF
04-17-2008, 12:07 AM
edabbs44, opinions are fine. Facts are fun too.

BTW Maloney was one of Philadelphia's top pitching prospects.

Cedric
04-17-2008, 12:09 AM
This is dismissing?





I can't have opinions? OK.

Back to the sidelines I go.

If you are going to speak on every single transaction you should be willing to hear others point of view. Taking your ball and going home isn't really what anyone wants.

edabbs44
04-17-2008, 12:09 AM
edabbs44, opinions are fine. Facts are fun too.

BTW Maloney was one of Philadelphia's top pitching prospects.

Agreed that Maloney was one of Philly's top prospects. Kazmir was one of baseball's top prospects.

Kazmir was more of a lock to turn into something. I agree that Maloney has had success and could continue to have success in the majors, but comparing the two situations is a rough task.

The most they have in common with each other is that they were both traded to perenially losing teams.

edabbs44
04-17-2008, 12:11 AM
If you are going to speak on every single transaction you should be willing to hear others point of view. Taking your ball and going home isn't really what anyone wants.

I always listen.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 12:20 AM
Let's wait a little longer before we make up our minds on McBeth and Maloney...

As for Justin Germano, his 2007 xFIP was 4.64, higher than Matt Belisle. I think he is mostly a product of home park and defense. I doubt his ERA as a Red would have been any better than Matt Belisle last season...

SMcGavin
04-17-2008, 12:57 AM
Let's wait a little longer before we make up our minds on McBeth and Maloney...

As for Justin Germano, his 2007 xFIP was 4.64, higher than Matt Belisle. I think he is mostly a product of home park and defense. I doubt his ERA as a Red would have been any better than Matt Belisle last season...

Yes higher than Belisle, but also lower than Bronson Arroyo. I am firmly in the pro-WK camp but Germano, while no superstar, is one that he let get away. He's the kind of cheap averageness that stops you from having to sign the Foggs of the world.

jojo
04-17-2008, 04:16 AM
Maloney simply doesn't project to be an especially valuable major league arm. He's basically a left-handed version of Josh Fogg.

He's had a Krate in the minors that might fool some but it's really the product of college experience and being able to command 4 average pitches from the left side of the mound while throwing against a pool of hitters that on average have deficiencies.

His BBrate is too high for a guy that won't be getting those Ks in the majors.

As for Maloney being one of the Phillies' top pitching prospects, that's a highly debatable assessment. For example, at Maloney's zenith in their organisation (2007), BA rated him only the Phillies' 7th best arm. The Phillies seemed to agree that he was expendable assessing his worth to be a grand total of 60 innings of roughly league average starting pitching from a guy they didn't even bother to resign despite the marginally priced 1 yr contract he ultimately inked elsewhere.

He's just the kind of soft-tossing lefty fool's gold that the Ms have a huge blind spot for..... If Maloney is valuable, it's because you either have no legitimate Louisville shuttle arms for the 8 or so odd starts out of your fifth spot in the rotation (i.e. your farm is a pretty bad) or you've figured out a way to leverage bald-headed stupidity and can trade him for a right-handed masher like a Wlad Balentien.

I know some might say performance matters over all else. To that, I'd suggest context colors performance evaluation.

mth123
04-17-2008, 07:03 AM
Maloney simply doesn't project to be an especially valuable major league arm. He's basically a left-handed version of Josh Fogg.

He's had a Krate in the minors that might fool some but it's really the product of college experience and being able to command 4 average pitches from the left side of the mound while throwing against a pool of hitters that on average have deficiencies.

His BBrate is too high for a guy that won't be getting those Ks in the majors.

As for Maloney being one of the Phillies' top pitching prospects, that's a highly debatable assessment. For example, at Maloney's zenith in their organisation (2007), BA rated him only the Phillies' 7th best arm. The Phillies seemed to agree that he was expendable assessing his worth to be a grand total of 60 innings of roughly league average starting pitching from a guy they didn't even bother to resign despite the marginally priced 1 yr contract he ultimately inked elsewhere.

He's just the kind of soft-tossing lefty fool's gold that the Ms have a huge blind spot for..... If Maloney is valuable, it's because you either have no legitimate Louisville shuttle arms for the 8 or so odd starts out of your fifth spot in the rotation (i.e. your farm is a pretty bad) or you've figured out a way to leverage bald-headed stupidity and can trade him for a right-handed masher like a Wlad Balentien.

I know some might say performance matters over all else. To that, I'd suggest context colors performance evaluation.

I think this is right. Maloney has value as a trade chip, but I'm not optimistic about him succeeding in GABP. Maloney for Balentien would be a fantastic deal for the Reds. Heck, I'd give 'em something more if they want. Coffey?? Freel?? Hopper?? Seattle is a team that might have a use for Hatte. Sexson is a RH Hitter so a lefty complement might fit pretty well.

If the Reds could get Balentien, I would put him in a straight platoon with Griffey in RF. He'd add RH Pop.

TRF
04-17-2008, 10:29 AM
Agreed that Maloney was one of Philly's top prospects. Kazmir was one of baseball's top prospects.

Kazmir was more of a lock to turn into something. I agree that Maloney has had success and could continue to have success in the majors, but comparing the two situations is a rough task.

The most they have in common with each other is that they were both traded to perenially losing teams.

Well you wondered about a guy traded for Lohse, Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano, a guy nowhere NEAR as good as Lohse.

jojo
04-17-2008, 10:34 AM
Well you wondered about a guy traded for Lohse, Kazmir was traded for Victor Zambrano, a guy nowhere NEAR as good as Lohse.


Jim Duquette is a moron. Pat Gillick isn't one.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 01:47 PM
He's just the kind of soft-tossing lefty fool's gold that the Ms have a huge blind spot for..... If Maloney is valuable, it's because you either have no legitimate Louisville shuttle arms for the 8 or so odd starts out of your fifth spot in the rotation (i.e. your farm is a pretty bad) or you've figured out a way to leverage bald-headed stupidity and can trade him for a right-handed masher like a Wlad Balentien.


Don't tease me. That sounds too good to be true.

Jr. and Maloney for Clement and Balentien at the deadline. Re-sign Adam Dunn. Dunn, Bruce, and Balentien is your OF for the next five years. Dunn, done and done.

REDREAD
04-17-2008, 03:34 PM
You're not reading my posts very well. No where did I say it was a bad thing to acquire young talent via trade. I said it's better to develop your own talent as opposed to trading for it. That's not a knock against his trades or anything close to it. I don't know where you keep getting that from.

Ok.. now I see what you're saying.

IMO, a good GM needs to do both. It's obviously important to have good drafts and mine Latin America for prospects, but no contending team is built 100% from within.. or at least not any modern team. It's just not possible.

I think the JD Drew trade for Marquis and Wainwright was pure genius, for example.. The Cards got help for "now" and the "future" by dumping a pending FA that wasn't going to resign with them. To further underscore the point, not many clubs have a draft year where they produce talent equivalent to Marquis and Wainwright out of all their picks. It's not due to incompetence, it's just picking talent in the draft is extremely difficult.

REDREAD
04-17-2008, 03:45 PM
funny, but I think he did a better job in 2007 than in 2006. His complete mismanagement of the bullpen in 2006 decimated the Reds down the stretch. "The Trade" was a complete disaster. Post 2006 season, he picked up some very good young talent in Hamilton, Burton and McBeth. Maloney came in 2007. I believe Keppinger was also a post 2006 season acquisition. And as we all know, Hamilton was then flipped for a very real need... QUALITY SP, which Volquez is.

The team on the field may not have performed as well, but Krivsky did a much better job of setting this team up for the future in 2007. 2006 was, IMO, a disaster outside of getting Phillips and to a lesser degree Arroyo. Nothing else he got was worth half a crap.


That's a good point, actually.. How did I forget about "The trade" :lol:
I did forget about that. I guess part of the reason 2006 looked better on the surface is that some decisions made in 2006 didn't really bite the club until 2007.. For example, the "Trade" made the team very vulnerable to LH pitching, which still impacts the club today. Cormier was also picked up.

I remember post-2006 and 2007 as a lot of bad decisions. Sure, Wayne scored big in Rule V, but he also gave out most of his bad contracts then, IIRC.. Freel, Castro, Stanton, Gonzo, etc. Also, Wayne refused to deal Weathers at the 2007 deadline. Wayne decided not to trade Dunn before his no trade clause kicked in, which is fine if Dunn is resigned this offseason, but is going to look really bad if we only get draft picks for Dunn..
I'm not as sold on MacBeth and Malony, but I agree they were good trades considering the cost. Maybe they will eventually be oustanding trades, I just can't get very excited about them now.

I think Wayne had a better offseason last year but did not do enough.

I'm not really sure that I want Wayne to continue architecting this team, but if he can finish over 500 this year, then he deserves another chance.
If this team limps to 74 wins or so, despite the revitalized pitching staff, then I really doubt Wayne's strategy is right. Wayne has several weaknesses, like failing to add a decent RH hitter, letting the offense crumbling, and pretty much ignoring or not knowing how to evaluate defense. True he did sign Patterson, but he was also courting Lofton for CF. In any event, I'm not so sure that waiting out Patterson indicates that he placed a high priority on upgrading CF defense. If Wayne is still around, it will be interesting to see who is patrolling CF next year or what he will do to address the other glaring weaknesses this club has.

And Wayne can not build a bullpen to save his life. That's a legitimate weakness.

REDREAD
04-17-2008, 03:54 PM
Yes higher than Belisle, but also lower than Bronson Arroyo. I am firmly in the pro-WK camp but Germano, while no superstar, is one that he let get away. He's the kind of cheap averageness that stops you from having to sign the Foggs of the world.


That is a good point. The Reds clearly lost the Geranamo-Cormier trade.
Gernamo was no savior, but the Reds could've used him in 2006.
The team was running out Michelek and other really bad dreck as starters without giving Gernamo a chance. Sure, Gernamo is no Cy Young, but the Cormier trade was a disaster. No way to rationalize it any other way.
Even if Gernamo never pitched another inning after he was traded, the Cormeir trade was still a loss. The fact that Gernamo is able to hang on as a #5 starter while we run Fogg out there just adds a little more salt in the wounds.

SMcGavin
04-17-2008, 04:02 PM
He's basically a left-handed version of Josh Fogg.


No, he's not. They pitched the same levels at roughly the same ages, and Maloney's K rate blows Fogg's out of the water. You might think Maloney will end up being a similar ML pitcher to Fogg and you could be right about that, but to continually assert that are essentially the same pitcher is wrong.

jojo
04-17-2008, 04:15 PM
No, he's not. They pitched the same levels at roughly the same ages, and Maloney's K rate blows Fogg's out of the water. You might think Maloney will end up being a similar ML pitcher to Fogg and you could be right about that, but to continually assert that are essentially the same pitcher is wrong.

Looking at his ceiling, there is likely no tangible difference even if he looked prettier getting there. Ultimately who cares how many guys Maloney Ks in the minors if it doesn't translate?

backbencher
04-17-2008, 08:05 PM
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Is this really a debate?

Talent in: Phillips, Arroyo, Volquez, Keppinger, Burton, Bray, D. Ross
Talent out: Kearns, FeLo, WMP, Brendan Harris, Germano, Denorfia, C. Ross, Cantu, Medlock, Guevera, Gardner

Not even close. Phillips and Arroyo have more value than any three players on the "out" list. And only Reds fans and Bowden think that FeLo ever had value in the first place.

(As an aside on "the trade": has there ever been a plausible rumor that any other team in baseball had the slightest interest in Kearns or Lopez?)



Talent developed: Cueto, Votto
Talent misdeveloped: EdE? Bailey? I don't think either can be put here yet, or at all.

It's early in the spring, but even the decrepit (Szymanski) are playing with new life.



Contracts:

Superb extensions with Dunn, Harang, Phillips (the best three players on the team? Yes!) Fine extension with Arroyo.

Overmarket deal with Freel.

Bad/unnecessary deals with Cormier, Stanton, Castro.

Stopgap: Fogg.


Again, a no-brainer. If you get Dunn, Harang and Phillips right, you're killing.




Free agents

Effective: Hatteburg/Conine, Lohse, Patterson

Too soon to tell: Cordero, Affeldt.

Stopgap: Fogg

Complete busts: Any? Gonzalez may be on the way to qualifying.


There are opprtunity costs here and with draft picks, but the FA market shows WK using dollars to address organizational weaknesses. Cordero will tell the tale here, and Patterson to a lesser extent, but already we know that Cordero made the Reds stronger and the Reds' opponents weaker. That's a good signing.



Drafts/development: Reds system rising steadily in the rankings, respect. WK picks other than first rounders performing very well, first rounders uncertain.


Other: Despite public pressure, kept Cueto, Bailey, Votto instead of dealing for big arm. Unclear role in hiring of Dusty Baker.



WK butchered a bullpen search in '06. He, like every other manager in baseball, likes to keep a backup SS on the roster. He, like every other manager in baseball, has trouble finding quality catchers. He keeps veteran lefty pitchers around much too long. So that's the bad.

As for the good, he has drafted well, gotten all the big contracts right, gotten good return on almost all of his deals since the trade, overseen a dramatic turnaround in the Reds development regime, refused to trade away cheap talent and absolutely murdered every other GM in baseball on Rule V and waiver claims.

For fans who have seen Bowden and O'Brien firsthand, this is the stuff of legend, not termination.

Screwball
04-17-2008, 08:22 PM
I think it's a good list, backbencher, but I'd include Stanton as a FA bust.

lollipopcurve
04-17-2008, 08:23 PM
well done, bb -- excellent summation of WK's tenure

SMcGavin
04-17-2008, 08:30 PM
Talent in: Phillips, Arroyo, Volquez, Keppinger, Burton, Bray, D. Ross
Talent out: Kearns, FeLo, WMP, Brendan Harris, Germano, Denorfia, C. Ross, Cantu, Medlock, Guevera, Gardner


This is a really good post. I think it shows how low the Reds were when WK took over, that he has improved the talent level this much and the Reds are just now starting to look like a .500 team.

If you include some minor leaguers on the in list these guys qualify:
In: Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Danny Herrera, Marcus McBeth
Out: Zach Ward


Also in the sake of fairness I don't think Phillips' extension should count as an excellent one just yet, and as Screwball said Mike Stanton was certainly a FA bust.

SMcGavin
04-17-2008, 08:35 PM
Ultimately who cares how many guys Maloney Ks in the minors if it doesn't translate?

Two reasons:
1. Because the scouts might be wrong and it may translate. Why don't we see how he does in AAA before writing him off? (as of now, 34 K in 30.1 innings)
2. Better minor league numbers give him higher trade value.

jojo
04-17-2008, 09:34 PM
Two reasons:
1. Because the scouts might be wrong and it may translate. Why don't we see how he does in AAA before writing him off? (as of now, 34 K in 30.1 innings)
2. Better minor league numbers give him higher trade value.

I suppose he might be that one in a million Jamie Moyer.

He has no real trade value mostly because one in a million anythings don't have history on their sides.

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 10:35 PM
I think I'll give Matt Maloney a chance before I write him off. After all, he's a bug durable dude with four pitches and leads all lefties in strikeouts the past two seasons in the minors.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 10:37 PM
Well, if jojo (and just about all the scouts) are right about Matt Maloney now would be the best time to sell high on him, before he gets to GABP...

HokieRed
04-17-2008, 10:40 PM
Just for the record, Jeff Stevens, O'Brien draftee, went to the Indians for Phillips. He's pitching very well for Akron in AA. 10 K's/ 0 W's in 7.1 this year. Indians had him in spring training this year.

SMcGavin
04-17-2008, 11:07 PM
I suppose he might be that one in a million Jamie Moyer.


Jamie Moyer minor league career 6.89 K/9
Matt Maloney minor league career 9.40 K/9

Perhaps instead of comparing Maloney to guys whose careers haven't been much like his at all, it would be better to find a comp whose career went the way you expect Maloney's to. Somebody who consistently struck out nine batters an inning in the minors, had good control of multiple pitches, and then got exposed when he made it to higher levels. I haven't been following minor league baseball long enough to know a guy like that off the top of my head, but if you could produce a few examples of guys who had that happen to them it would strengthen your argument. Calling Maloney a one in a million shot implies there should be tons of guys who fit that mold.

edabbs44
04-17-2008, 11:19 PM
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Is this really a debate?

Talent in: Phillips, Arroyo, Volquez, Keppinger, Burton, Bray, D. Ross
Talent out: Kearns, FeLo, WMP, Brendan Harris, Germano, Denorfia, C. Ross, Cantu, Medlock, Guevera, Gardner

Not even close. Phillips and Arroyo have more value than any three players on the "out" list. And only Reds fans and Bowden think that FeLo ever had value in the first place.

(As an aside on "the trade": has there ever been a plausible rumor that any other team in baseball had the slightest interest in Kearns or Lopez?)

Obviously he has done a good job getting talent in here...but if he has done such a good job in this arena, why hasn't it translated into wins on the field? He has done his best work on acquiring and putting cheap talent on the major league roster.

I don't think many would dispute this part...but maybe he is better in this role than in the role of GM.



Talent developed: Cueto, Votto
Talent misdeveloped: EdE? Bailey? I don't think either can be put here yet, or at all.

It's early in the spring, but even the decrepit (Szymanski) are playing with new life.

I've seen this as a popular feather in WK's hat. I don't see Wayne as having as much to do with this as some people think. I realize that he lifted the take a strike theory, but I think many GMs would have done the same.




Contracts:

Superb extensions with Dunn, Harang, Phillips (the best three players on the team? Yes!) Fine extension with Arroyo.

Overmarket deal with Freel.

Bad/unnecessary deals with Cormier, Stanton, Castro.

Stopgap: Fogg.


Again, a no-brainer. If you get Dunn, Harang and Phillips right, you're killing.

Arroyo's extension is TBD, as it is so early right now. This could be his last year on his original deal and he might have brought in a haul at the deadline if he pitched well this year. Now he might be a bit more difficult to move, and I'm not optomistic about next year or beyond at a price.

I wasn't a big fan of the Hatteberg option, and I realize that I was/am in the minority there. But Votto has been hitting and now there is a redundency on the bench.

Ross' extension?




Free agents

Effective: Hatteburg/Conine, Lohse, Patterson

Too soon to tell: Cordero, Affeldt.

Stopgap: Fogg

Complete busts: Any? Gonzalez may be on the way to qualifying.


There are opprtunity costs here and with draft picks, but the FA market shows WK using dollars to address organizational weaknesses. Cordero will tell the tale here, and Patterson to a lesser extent, but already we know that Cordero made the Reds stronger and the Reds' opponents weaker. That's a good signing.

Conine was effective? Patterson on the effective list is a huge stretch. Lohse is questionable and he wasn't a FA. Affeldt may be too soon to tell (but I bet on "complete bust"), but if he is early then so is Patterson.

Stanton is a complete bust.



Drafts/development: Reds system rising steadily in the rankings, respect. WK picks other than first rounders performing very well, first rounders uncertain.

System has risen largely due to the existing system though Wayne has made a few good picks. Had a nice haul of early picks last year. Would have liked to see a high impact draft pick, which is what he is missing. Frazier has potential.



Other: Despite public pressure, kept Cueto, Bailey, Votto instead of dealing for big arm. Unclear role in hiring of Dusty Baker.

Extended Narron and approved role of the brother, which supposedly wasn't a clubhouse favorite.




WK butchered a bullpen search in '06. He, like every other manager in baseball, likes to keep a backup SS on the roster. He, like every other manager in baseball, has trouble finding quality catchers. He keeps veteran lefty pitchers around much too long. So that's the bad.

As for the good, he has drafted well, gotten all the big contracts right, gotten good return on almost all of his deals since the trade, overseen a dramatic turnaround in the Reds development regime, refused to trade away cheap talent and absolutely murdered every other GM in baseball on Rule V and waiver claims.

For fans who have seen Bowden and O'Brien firsthand, this is the stuff of legend, not termination.

Let's be clear...he has butchered the bullpen search for 3 years running.


Bottom line is that Wayne has had some success but I just don't think he fits the bill of a GM. I think his weaknesses (i.e. bullpen, older players, multiyear contracts) outweigh his strengths (finding diamonds in the rough). He would be an asset for most organizations, but not in the role of GM.

Ltlabner
04-18-2008, 08:49 AM
Obviously he has done a good job getting talent in here...but if he has done such a good job in this arena, why hasn't it translated into wins on the field?

You do understand that there are a number of variables that reside between "assemble tallent" and "win games" right?

edabbs44
04-18-2008, 09:11 AM
You do understand that there are a number of variables that reside between "assemble tallent" and "win games" right?

Sure. That's why I am starting to believe that maybe he would be a better fit in a "Director of Player Development" (or similar) role and not in the overarching GM role.

jojo
04-18-2008, 11:37 AM
Jamie Moyer minor league career 6.89 K/9
Matt Maloney minor league career 9.40 K/9

Perhaps instead of comparing Maloney to guys whose careers haven't been much like his at all, it would be better to find a comp whose career went the way you expect Maloney's to. Somebody who consistently struck out nine batters an inning in the minors, had good control of multiple pitches, and then got exposed when he made it to higher levels. I haven't been following minor league baseball long enough to know a guy like that off the top of my head, but if you could produce a few examples of guys who had that happen to them it would strengthen your argument. Calling Maloney a one in a million shot implies there should be tons of guys who fit that mold.

Here's the comp: No out pitch, velocity topping out a 88 mph, average command of four pitches, college experience..... Since you're not familiar with the minors, how about finding a list of guys with that skill set that have went on to become significantly more than Josh Fogg as a major leaguer in the modern era? Go at it.....

BTW, that's not writing Maloney off. That's suggesting he's got a good chance to have a major league career as a starter but his minor league K rate isn't going to reflect the kind of career he'll have.

SMcGavin
04-18-2008, 11:44 AM
Here's the comp. No out pitch, velocity topping out a 88 mph, average command of four pitches, college experience..... Go at it.....

Yeah I guess he is the same as Josh Fogg... as long as you ignore the fact that his results are way better than Josh Fogg.

The question obviously becomes, if he is not any good, how come he keeps striking guys out everywhere he pitches? Don't give me the "college experience" thing like he's the only guy who went to college. If that's the reason you should be able to find tons of guys with results like him that fell apart at higher levels.

SMcGavin
04-18-2008, 11:48 AM
BTW, that's not writing Maloney off. That's suggesting he's got a good chance to have a major league career as a starter but his minor league K rate isn't going to reflect the kind of career he'll have.

Actually, calling Maloney "Josh Fogg's left handed twin" and a "one in a million shot" is pretty much writing him off. If in the beginning you had said "his minor league K rate isn't going to reflect the kind of career he'll have", I would have nodded my head and moved on.

princeton
04-18-2008, 11:50 AM
Here's the comp: No out pitch, velocity topping out a 88 mph, average command of four pitches, college experience......

if Josh Fogg were lefthanded, he'd rock

RedsManRick
04-18-2008, 11:53 AM
if Josh Fogg were lefthanded, he'd rock

You know, I've never understood how not getting guys out from the left side was somehow better than not getting guys out from the right side... always baffled me.

BRM
04-18-2008, 11:57 AM
You know, I've never understood how not getting guys out from the left side was somehow better than not getting guys out from the right side... always baffled me.

You would think bad would just be bad, regardless of handedness.

RedsManRick
04-18-2008, 11:58 AM
How are Randy Kiesler and Noah Lowry as comps for Maloney?

jojo
04-18-2008, 11:58 AM
Actually, calling Maloney "Josh Fogg's left handed twin" and a "one in a million shot" is pretty much writing him off. If in the beginning you had said "his minor league K rate isn't going to reflect the kind of career he'll have", I would have nodded my head and moved on.

Then you're pretty much spitting hairs because Moyers are a one in a million while Foggs, not so much and it's the exact same point.

*BaseClogger*
04-18-2008, 12:22 PM
and on the other end of the spectrum... Barry Zito?

RedsManRick
04-18-2008, 12:29 PM
and on the other end of the spectrum... Barry Zito?

When Zito was good his curve ball was one heck of an out pitch. Maloney has nothing like that. I think Maloney has a decent shot of sticking in the majors. But if you're looking for a reasonable upside comp, Brian Bannister is another that comes to mind. He's never going to dominate, but could be very serviceable if he uses his stuff well.

princeton
04-18-2008, 12:35 PM
success rate of finesse lefties is so much higher than that of finesse righties.

if Tom Browning threw that way from the right side, he would have had no career.

SMcGavin
04-18-2008, 12:36 PM
Your statement that not many with Maloney's skill set are top MLB pitchers is a valid one, as is my statement that not many with Maloney's K numbers suddenly forget how to strike people out. Maloney is a unique prospect, evidenced by the difficulty finding an accurate comp for him.

RMR, Lowry is an interesting comp, but it seems his K rates got progressively worse at each stop. That is what you'd expect from a guy who is getting figured out. By the time he got to AA he was at 7.38 and stayed about the same in AAA. Maloney has been pretty constant throughout his career, the only place he was less than a strikeout an inning was actually in low A ball. If Maloney sees a dropoff in AAA I think the Lowry comp would fit better. Keisler didn't have the sustained minors success Maloney did, and his numbers really dropped after he missed the 2002 season due to shoulder surgery so we never got to see how he would have turned out.

westofyou
04-18-2008, 12:48 PM
You know, I've never understood how not getting guys out from the left side was somehow better than not getting guys out from the right side... always baffled me.

The past 13 years has seen the growth of LH power hitting, much larger than switch or RH.

Here's a thumbnail example

From 1969-1994 players with 15 or more HR's than the league represented this average of all the players. (Baseline is qualifying for the batting title)

From 1969-1994

.40 of switch hitters had 15 HR's more than the league
.99 of LH hitters had 15 HR's more than the league
1.30 of RH hitters had 15 HR"s more than the league.

From 1995-2007

.72 of switch hitters had 15 HR's more than the league
1.88 of LH hitters had 15 HR's more than the league
1.70 of RH hitters had 15 HR's more than the league

.89 growth of LH power vs the .40 of RH growth coupled with the growth of the bullpen means that getting the LH out has become something that is pursued a bit more now then in the past.

Also most middle infielders and catcher are RH hitters and they are also the weak hitters in most lineups throughout the season, thus they become an afterthought and the more powerful hitters become more prominent in the opposing teams game plan and that means playing matchups more and more with specialists... and the specialist of the day in our park especially is the LH picther.

jojo
04-18-2008, 12:54 PM
Your statement that not many with Maloney's skill set are top MLB pitchers is a valid one, as is my statement that not many with Maloney's K numbers suddenly forget how to strike people out. Maloney is a unique prospect, evidenced by the difficulty finding an accurate comp for him.


But you're not asking yourself why he has the minor league K numbers and if it's a reason that will carry over to his major league performance.

That's kind of the point of the debate isn't it (it's certainly a part of my original argument)?

RedsManRick
04-18-2008, 12:57 PM
Also most middle infielders and catcher are RH hitters and they are also the weak hitters in most lineups throughout the season, thus they become an afterthought and the more powerful hitters become more prominent in the opposing teams game plan and that means playing matchups more and more with specialists... and the specialist of the day in our park especially is the LH picther.

Interesting stuff Woy. However, I've noted a number of lefties who don't get anybody out. These aren't LOOGYs hanging on as specialists. These are guys like Mike Stanton, who simply throw from the left side and thus get chance after chance after chance.

It's as if there's some mass confusion between the cause and the effect. You should keep the guy because he gets lefties out effectively, not because he throws with his left arm. It just seems to be a sheep mentality.

SMcGavin
04-18-2008, 01:13 PM
But you're not asking yourself why he has the minor league K numbers and if it's a reason that will carry over to his major league performance.


If I'm understanding correctly, you believe the reasons he has the minor league K numbers is because he is a college guy (thus more seasoned) and throws multiple pitches with decent control. Correct me if I am wrong on this.

I don't think those reasons are the whole story. There are plenty of other guys who also qualify for those two criteria, and they don't strike out guys like Matt Maloney does. So in my opinion there has to be some other reason why he has done so well. That is why I asked if you had any comps, because if there were other guys who had similar stuff, followed his career path, and then flopped it would set a precedent for what you expect from Maloney. I have to imagine there are other college pitchers who control multiple pitches - why can't any of them strike out batters like Maloney can?

edabbs44
04-18-2008, 01:37 PM
Interesting stuff Woy. However, I've noted a number of lefties who don't get anybody out. These aren't LOOGYs hanging on as specialists. These are guys like Mike Stanton, who simply throw from the left side and thus get chance after chance after chance.

It's as if there's some mass confusion between the cause and the effect. You should keep the guy because he gets lefties out effectively, not because he throws with his left arm. It just seems to be a sheep mentality.

There are two ways to think: is it that the LHP is tough on LHHs, or does the LHH have a tough time hitting a LHP?

Using Papi as an example, he hits over 130 points lower in OPS vs LHPs in his career. Generally that could mean that you would rather send up a LHP to face him over a RHP.

I would be interested to see a study on tiers of LHP and RHP. For example, do lesser LHPs still have an effect on LHHs? How drastic of an improvement is a Stanton over a semi-effective RHP?

Interesting stuff.

RedlegJake
04-18-2008, 02:05 PM
Because he doesn't throw 90+ mph. That's why he is dissed as a prospect, plain and simple. He has better than a K an inning in the minors. He keeps the ball in the park. Less than a hit an inning since high A. Declining WHIP as he progresses. 4 pitches to mix things up. He's a lefty. Big strong physical type. IF he threw 92, well, Philly would likely have never traded him in the first place.

He's a real prospect but for a 4th or 5th spot most likely. Guys like him have made it in the big leagues. Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven. Neither was a fastballer, both relied on curves. Lots and lots of curves. Both were hittable off speed pitchers who happened to get a lot of Ks. I watched them both pitch and really can't tell you why they managed to miss bats. If they hadn't, if their KO rates had been lower, both would have been toast because they were both hittable. Getting a big K when men were on base was a forte for both. And yes, when Sutton was younger he threw a bit harder than Maloney but not by much and he won as many in the second half of his career when he couldn't break a pane of glass. Now that's a high bar for Maloney and I seriously don't think he's close to those two. On the other end pitchers with his repertoire also have a pretty low floor. It's really simple. If Maloney's K rate doesn't translate to the majors he'll be toast. And that's a lot more likely than he becomes a Sutton-lite.

REDREAD
04-18-2008, 02:27 PM
Jamie Moyer minor league career 6.89 K/9
Matt Maloney minor league career 9.40 K/9

Perhaps instead of comparing Maloney to guys whose careers haven't been much like his at all, it would be better to find a comp whose career went the way you expect Maloney's to. .

There's lot of people that dominate the minors but don't have skills to play at the ML level. I don't know about Maloney. I am speaking in general terms.
Knicely, Larson, Bong, Ricky Stone all dominated the minors.

There was one pitcher who's name escapes me.. I wish I could remember his name. I think it was during the Bowden era. The guy totally dominated AAA for most of the year. Marty lead the charge to campaign to call him up but once he was called up, he stunk big time. He pitched maybe 5 starts? I think only one was a good start..Does anyone remember the guy's name? I just remembered. Scott Klingenbeck..Didn't K as much as Maloney but still averaged 7.9K/9 IP, and had a 2.86 ERA in AAA, less hits given up than IP.

Again, have not seen Maloney, but the point is that you can't go by purely minor league numbers.

TRF
04-18-2008, 02:31 PM
REDREAD,

Larson didn't dominate the minors. he had a year in which he dominated. Maloney has progressed. He's easily one of the Reds top 10 prospects in my book. And if his rotation spot is after a hard thrower, I think he can be really effective.

REDREAD
04-18-2008, 02:34 PM
success rate of finesse lefties is so much higher than that of finesse righties.

if Tom Browning threw that way from the right side, he would have had no career.

Disagree. Browning had legit talent. Wasn't a flame thrower, but had good breaking stuff, particularly that screw ball. Threw strikes and pitched well enough to eat a lot of innings. I would gladly add multiple Brownings to this staff, even if they were all RH.

Over his career
He held RH batters to a 309 OBP. LH batters were held to a 316 OBP, so no advantage vs LH there (due to the screwball, I'm guessing which was more effective on righties).

RH batters were held to an 732 OPS, Lefties to a 708 OPS over his career, which is quite impressive, as he had some bad years after that knee injury.

Great pitcher, an ace IMO.

So what makes you dismiss him as being only useful because he was a lefty?

REDREAD
04-18-2008, 02:39 PM
REDREAD,

Larson didn't dominate the minors. he had a year in which he dominated. Maloney has progressed. He's easily one of the Reds top 10 prospects in my book. And if his rotation spot is after a hard thrower, I think he can be really effective.


Ok, that's fair enough. Toss out Larson. But there's plenty of other examples such as Klingbeck.

I'm not saying Maloney won't make it. I've never seen him, so I don't know.

I was speaking in general terms.. I really believe scouting is much more important in picking future ML talent than raw numbes. At the ML levels, statisical analysis is more useful than in predicting which minor leaguers will make it.

For example, the first time I saw Scott Williamson start in the minors, I knew he'd be awesome, even though he gave up 3 runs in his last inning and only lasted 5 or 6 innings. If you just looked at the numbers, it wasn't that impressive. I can't remember how many K's he had in that game, but it wasn't as if he was striking out 2 per inning.

westofyou
04-18-2008, 02:39 PM
Disagree. Browning had legit talent. Wasn't a flame thrower, but had good breaking stuff, particularly that screw ball. Threw strikes and pitched well enough to eat a lot of innings. I would gladly add multiple Brownings to this staff, even if they were all RH.

Over his career
He held RH batters to a 309 OBP. LH batters were held to a 316 OBP, so no advantage vs LH there (due to the screwball, I'm guessing which was more effective on righties).

RH batters were held to an 732 OPS, Lefties to a 708 OPS over his career, which is quite impressive, as he had some bad years after that knee injury.

Great pitcher, an ace IMO.

So what makes you dismiss him as being only useful because he was a lefty?

The National League had these as league averages from 1985-1991, which were Brownings main years.

He was an average pitcher by the numbers

.253/.319/.377/.696

jojo
04-18-2008, 02:46 PM
Guys like him have made it in the big leagues. Don Sutton, Bert Blyleven. Neither was a fastballer, both relied on curves. Lots and lots of curves.

Both had out pitches.

princeton
04-18-2008, 02:47 PM
Disagree. Browning had legit talent. Wasn't a flame thrower, but had good breaking stuff, particularly that screw ball. Threw strikes and pitched well enough to eat a lot of innings. I would gladly add multiple Brownings to this staff, even if they were all RH.

Over his career
He held RH batters to a 309 OBP. LH batters were held to a 316 OBP, so no advantage vs LH there (due to the screwball, I'm guessing which was more effective on righties).

RH batters were held to an 732 OPS, Lefties to a 708 OPS over his career, which is quite impressive, as he had some bad years after that knee injury.

Great pitcher, an ace IMO.

So what makes you dismiss him as being only useful because he was a lefty?


it's a subtle point, apparently, but I'll try again: a righthander with the same stuff is called a minor leaguer.

jojo
04-18-2008, 02:49 PM
There's lot of people that dominate the minors but don't have skills to play at the ML level.

This is absolutely true.

Importantly, there are very few who consistently out perform their stuff in the majors.

RedlegJake
04-18-2008, 02:51 PM
Both had out pitches.

If Maloney is missing bats he has one too. That's the point. Whether that continues when he hits the majors is a dubious proposition, agreed. An out pitch at AAA may not be in the big leagues. Especially the off speed variety.

redsmetz
04-18-2008, 02:54 PM
There was one pitcher who's name escapes me.. I wish I could remember his name. I think it was during the Bowden era. The guy totally dominated AAA for most of the year. Marty lead the charge to campaign to call him up but once he was called up, he stunk big time. He pitched maybe 5 starts? I think only one was a good start..Does anyone remember the guy's name? I just remembered. Scott Klingenbeck..Didn't K as much as Maloney but still averaged 7.9K/9 IP, and had a 2.86 ERA in AAA, less hits given up than IP.

Klingenbeck's uncle does work for me (he was just in my office this morning), but the year he was with the Reds, his arm was practically falling off. In fact, I think there were some issues after he was claimed by the Pirates that the Reds should have been responsible for his surgery, IIRC.

jojo
04-18-2008, 03:06 PM
If Maloney is missing bats he has one too. That's the point.

That's the assumption. All that really matters is does he have a major league out pitch.


Whether that continues when he hits the majors is a dubious proposition, agreed. An out pitch at AAA may not be in the big leagues. Especially the off speed variety.

That is the point.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2008, 03:12 PM
Dusty Baker seemed to be awfully impressed with Maloney's curveball during spring training. Baseball America describes his changeup as a plus pitch so it seems he's got the stuff to get major league hitters out. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be a top-of-rotation starter, I'm sure not. I view his ceiling as a #4 starter who gives you close to 200 innings a year and an ERA around 4.50-4.70.

BRM
04-18-2008, 03:14 PM
Dusty Baker seemed to be awfully impressed with Maloney's curveball during spring training. Baseball America describes his changeup as a plus pitch so it seems he's got the stuff to get major league hitters out. I don't think anyone is expecting him to be a top-of-rotation starter, I'm sure not. I view his ceiling as a #4 starter who gives you close to 200 innings a year and an ERA around 4.50-4.70.

A lefty Arroyo?

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2008, 03:39 PM
A lefty Arroyo?

I'd certainly take that.

BRM
04-18-2008, 03:41 PM
I'd certainly take that.

So would I. Although Bronson has been able to deliver better than a 4.5 ERA to this point.

*BaseClogger*
04-18-2008, 04:14 PM
Bronson would likely consistently deliver about a 4.00 ERA for a team with better defense and a more conducive environment. That 2006 was a blip on the radar screen. I'm starting to like the lefty Arroyo comparison for Matt Maloney...

SMcGavin
04-18-2008, 04:49 PM
There's lot of people that dominate the minors but don't have skills to play at the ML level.

Certainly not denying that. I'm just asking for a couple of names of pitchers with minor league success on par with Maloney who couldn't strike anyone out once they got to the bigs. If they are so common this shouldn't be that hard. Noah Lowry has been the closest yet, but he didn't have quite as much success as Maloney has had in the minors. Plus Lowry did strike out over 7 batters per nine in his 300 or so innings in the majors, so it's not like he was a bust in the bigs. I don't know what happened to him the past couple of seasons. I think we'd all love to have Lowry's first two MLB seasons out of Maloney. Klingenbeck, at age 24, was striking out 6 batters per nine in AAA. Above A ball he never struck out more than 7.5 per nine. Not really comparable.

HokieRed
04-19-2008, 12:06 AM
Here's an interesting comp for Maloney, one I hope he turns out to be like and one whom Dusty, by the way, knows well. Kirk Rueter. Minor league record for Rueter: 8.18 hits/9; .57 HR/9; 1.82 W/9; 6.31 k/9; 1.11 WHIP. Here's Maloney: 7.23 H/9; .62 HR/9; 3.40 W/9; 9.40 K/9; 1.18. Note the nearly identical figures for WHIP and homers per game, and the roughly 3 to 1 K to W ratio for each. Rueter was a very good major league pitcher, especially tough, as I remember, on the road. He went 130 and 92 for his career, 4.27 ERA, 9.82 H/9; 1.13 HR/9; 2.73 W/9; 3.84 K/9.

*BaseClogger*
04-19-2008, 02:20 AM
way undershot on the K's though Hokie...

HokieRed
04-19-2008, 12:47 PM
Not sure I understand your point, Base Clogger. Rueter only struck out 3.84 per nine for his major league career yet was a very valuable pitcher. Maloney looks comparable as a minor leaguer and will strike out more. I don't think he'll be as good a pitcher as Rueter was just because too many things can go wrong and Rueter was very good, but he does have a chance to be, it seems to me.

Tony Cloninger
04-19-2008, 01:09 PM
The problem in comparing Kirk with Maloney is the ballparks....SF is a pitcher's park well suited for a junkballer.

westofyou
04-19-2008, 01:33 PM
The problem in comparing Kirk with Maloney is the ballparks....SF is a pitcher's park well suited for a junkballer.

Pacific air.. Kirk Rueter achieved his greatest success pitching in Candlestick too, the air was colder, the outfield larger, his home ERA was a half a run better for his career and the 800 IP in SF had the most to do with that.

SMcGavin
04-19-2008, 02:14 PM
The problem in comparing Kirk with Maloney is the ballparks....SF is a pitcher's park well suited for a junkballer.

And that Rueter could never strike anyone out above A ball, and Maloney can. Rueter also had a lot better control than Maloney does. They are really not very similar other than being left handed and not throwing overly hard.

Tony Cloninger
04-19-2008, 02:52 PM
How is that not being similiar? If they both do not throw hard and are LH....they seem to be the same type of pitcher to me. He may be SO more people above A ball but when he get's to this ballpark....he is going to basically have to throw harder or have some Carlton like slider or valenzuela screwball...to get people out and not turn into Brandon Claussen.

Quit getting pitchers that have no real chance in this park....unless they are dead on with their command and control. Tom Browning would have been gone in 2-3 years if he had to pitch in the GAB. Or start moving the LCF and CF walls back to help.

HokieRed
04-19-2008, 03:14 PM
I don't know where to get the home-away splits, but I do know that, at one point in his career, Rueter had the best lifetime road record of any NL pitcher. His success was not just about being in SF.

westofyou
04-19-2008, 03:31 PM
I don't know where to get the home-away splits, but I do know that, at one point in his career, Rueter had the best lifetime road record of any NL pitcher. His success was not just about being in SF.

Dig around here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?year=0&n1=rueteki01

Kirk consistently had a better ERA at home, but his road one was passable and well he had a good team behind him too.

Tony Cloninger
04-19-2008, 03:48 PM
I will take a Charlie Liebrandt....Flyod bannister type pitcher.

SMcGavin
04-19-2008, 04:16 PM
If they both do not throw hard and are LH....they seem to be the same type of pitcher to me.

There are a lot of variables to pitching besides handedness and fastball speed.

HokieRed
04-19-2008, 10:20 PM
Back to evaluating Wayne's performance. As much as I like Volquez, I think we need to take into account Hamilton's line to date: .294/.363/.529 (.892 OPS), 3 Hr's, 16 RBI's. It would look pretty good in the Reds' punchless lineup, and one could argue that all Volquez has done is move Bailey to Louisville. Would we be a better team with Hamilton in the lineup and Bailey in the rotation?

HumnHilghtFreel
04-19-2008, 10:22 PM
Back to evaluating Wayne's performance. As much as I like Volquez, I think we need to take into account Hamilton's line to date: .294/.363/.529 (.892 OPS), 3 Hr's, 16 RBI's. It would look pretty good in the Reds' punchless lineup, and one could argue that all Volquez has done is move Bailey to Louisville. Would we be a better team with Hamilton in the lineup and Bailey in the rotation?

Will we(yes, I'm a "we" fan) be a better team next year with Bruce in the lineup and Cueto/Volquez/Bailey in the rotation?

I love Hamilton and he's still producing at a high rate. But I'd rather have a pitcher with the high upside than the bat with the high upside.

cincyinco
04-19-2008, 11:09 PM
We still needed pitching, and we still need it today. Its a need that never goes away.

hah, that rhymes.

but seriously.. We'd still be a crappy ballclub with Hamilton's bat in the lineup, IMO. Mitigating his effect, cause we'd still have to win games 10-8. Not an easy task.

I'm happy our strength has appeared to transition from hitting to pitching(minus Fogg).. Its much easier to find FA bat's with some punch than it is to find high upside, quality pitching.

It may be hard to swallow for some fans, but I think I can envision a team next year minus Dunn and Griffey. With the money saved just from those 2 players, we could spend some money on some good D, RH pop in their place. Balance the lineup a bit.

When and If Bailey emerges, we might be able to move Arroyo for some nice pieces too. The good quality, young, cheap pitching will afford us many more options to spend money on.

At this point, I'm not sure I'd mind seeing Dunn go. I'm not bashing him. But if it means improved Defense, better ways to allocate money, and 2 top draft picks that(hopefully) allow the pipeline of high ceiling talent to continue to progress and emerge at a steady and somewhat constant rate.. well it may well be worth it.

Its always easier to find a quality bat than a quality pitcher IMO.

jojo
04-19-2008, 11:19 PM
I'm happy our strength has appeared to transition from hitting to pitching(minus Fogg).. Its much easier to find FA bat's with some punch than it is to find high upside, quality pitching.......

Its always easier to find a quality bat than a quality pitcher IMO.

One could look at it this way too...... position players are a much, much better risk than "high upside" pitchers. There was nothing stupid with what Texas did (and is doing as a matter of philosophy).

cincyinco
04-19-2008, 11:25 PM
Not saying either philosophy is wrong.. and in the case of Hamilton/Volquez I like the trade from both sides Jojo..

But I think you kinda made my point for me. Position players are a much better risk..

to spend the high dollars on.

You know what you're going to get, in general, moreso than with a pitcher. I think we can agree there's more variables that make pitchers a higher risk. Given that, I'm happy we're stockpiling the pitchers, while they are cheap, if we end up allocating more money towards the more sure thing.

Hope that makes sense.

Team Clark
04-23-2008, 03:09 PM
Well, the Wayne watch didn't last long. Should someone start a Patterson/Freel watch?

flyer85
04-23-2008, 03:11 PM
Well, the Wayne watch didn't last long. Should someone start a Patterson/Freel watch?add Hopper and Valentin to the list.

Team Clark
04-23-2008, 03:14 PM
add Hopper and Valentin to the list.

Hopper is too cheap to move anywhere but AAA. Valentin is now on the list! :thumbup:

RedsManRick
04-23-2008, 03:20 PM
Hopper is too cheap to move anywhere but AAA. Valentin is now on the list! :thumbup:

Wither Fogg? If that was a purely WK move...

Team Clark
04-23-2008, 03:21 PM
Wither Fogg? If that was a purely WK move...

Add Fogg to the list. :thumbup:

Matt700wlw
04-23-2008, 04:31 PM
That didn't last long

macro
04-23-2008, 04:51 PM
Since the story has taken a new turn and this thread has gotten long, let's direct further discussion to one of the newer threads.