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Homer Bailey
04-16-2008, 10:36 PM
6 Hits
17 Walks...

(through 5th inning on 4/16)

Can we please move him from the 5 spot?

Hondo
04-16-2008, 10:45 PM
Maybe hitting him 3rd in front of Junior would be good. He would guaranteed see more pitches to hit...

Batting Phillips 5th, then Votto, then EE

TheOnlyRedsFan
04-16-2008, 10:48 PM
what about batting him second?

Hondo
04-16-2008, 10:50 PM
U would have 3 leftys batting in a row

Homer Bailey
04-16-2008, 10:50 PM
what about batting him second?

THANK YOU! Aren't his career numbers there pretty good?

TheOnlyRedsFan
04-16-2008, 10:52 PM
what if Keppinger leads off, Dunn second, Griff, BP, Patterson, EE, Votto, C, P

Degenerate39
04-16-2008, 10:52 PM
U would have 3 leftys batting in a row

Move Phillips to the three hole

TheOnlyRedsFan
04-16-2008, 10:54 PM
or that
Patterson, Dunn, BP, Griff, Keppinger, EE, Votto, etc,

redlegsmustache
04-17-2008, 04:27 AM
The fact that he has that many walks is a reason he hasn't gotten a good batting average yet. He's being more patient at the plate, as where this time of the year last year he would be batting .290 with 4 home runs and 500,000 Ks. :)

eastkyred
04-17-2008, 11:50 AM
I wouldn't mind Dunn in the 2 hole. I don't like Patterson leading off at all. I would lead off Phillips, Dunn second is ok with me, Kep third. I know Kep isn't going to hit 30 HRs, but he is the best hitter on this team. Jay Bruce should be up and batting 4th, just like the Brewers did with Braun last year. Put him right in the middle of the lineup day 1. Griffey 5, EE 6(until Gonzo gets back), Votto 7, C 8, P 9.

CWRed
04-18-2008, 07:09 PM
Move Phillips to the three hole

no no no. Bad OBP, too many double plays. He should bat 5th.

forfreelin04
04-19-2008, 12:10 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54395

I started this thread awhile ago. I think it still holds weight. It basically uses statistical analysis to show that Dunn's strengths are maximized with him hitting second.

Mr.MojoRisin
04-19-2008, 12:29 AM
He seems to get on base pretty well, I think putting him 2nd would help.

forfreelin04
04-19-2008, 12:40 AM
Everybody including Dusty and other Dunn loathers need to realize he is what he is. He is not going to wakeup one day and hit for a high average or hit long bombs with RISP. He does however have great plate discipline, he maximizes his at bats by taking what the pitcher gives him. If the pitcher is willing to walk him either by pitching around him or simply trying to get him to chase, he does not swing. That is great HITTING! Swinging for the sake of putting wood on the ball is not GOOD HITTING. The chances of anyone hitting a ball with any authority outside of the strikezone goes down dramatically when that is the case.

So by batting him second, he gets one more plate appearance every 9 innings, he hits ahead of the second best hitter on the team (Griffey, Phillips, Kep depending on your opinion), and if we had a decent OBP leadoff hitter, he hits more often with runners on base. If that runner is not on base, he draws more walks to start a strong inning from the second spot. He is also a great batter to have at the plate with somoene like CPATT or Hopper on first because the chances are greater the pitcher will throw outside of the zone or throw an offspeed pitch which maximizes the chances of a successul stolen base of second.

But yet, everyone wants him to be something he's not. Yes, he's as Big as Big Papi, yes he can hit the ball into the Ohio, but he is not the answer if you want him to hit in the clutch and get a ton of RBI's.

I propose at least batting Griffey behind Dunn for once and seeing what happens.

757690
04-19-2008, 02:22 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=54395

I started this thread awhile ago. I think it still holds weight. It basically uses statistical analysis to show that Dunn's strengths are maximized with him hitting second.


Everybody including Dusty and other Dunn loathers need to realize he is what he is. He is not going to wakeup one day and hit for a high average or hit long bombs with RISP. He does however have great plate discipline, he maximizes his at bats by taking what the pitcher gives him. If the pitcher is willing to walk him either by pitching around him or simply trying to get him to chase, he does not swing. That is great HITTING! Swinging for the sake of putting wood on the ball is not GOOD HITTING. The chances of anyone hitting a ball with any authority outside of the strikezone goes down dramatically when that is the case.

So by batting him second, he gets one more plate appearance every 9 innings, he hits ahead of the second best hitter on the team (Griffey, Phillips, Kep depending on your opinion), and if we had a decent OBP leadoff hitter, he hits more often with runners on base. If that runner is not on base, he draws more walks to start a strong inning from the second spot. He is also a great batter to have at the plate with somoene like CPATT or Hopper on first because the chances are greater the pitcher will throw outside of the zone or throw an offspeed pitch which maximizes the chances of a successul stolen base of second.

But yet, everyone wants him to be something he's not. Yes, he's as Big as Big Papi, yes he can hit the ball into the Ohio, but he is not the answer if you want him to hit in the clutch and get a ton of RBI's.

I propose at least batting Griffey behind Dunn for once and seeing what happens.

I agree with both these posts. But if they are true, then you have to conclude that Dunn is not worth signing after this season, and probably should be traded this season.

A number 2 hitter, no matter how good, is not worth a five year $85M contract, which is what Dunn will get in the open market. That type of contract, especially on the Reds, should go to a cleanup hitter or number 3 hitter, basically you best hitter who the other teams are afraid of.

The Reds have a great number two hitter in Keppinger, and have no great cleanup hitter. They have no one that the other teams is afraid to pitch to. Any championship teams needs a player like that, and Dunn is not that player.

I think the Reds need to replace Dunn with Bruce. Trade Dunn in June when you can, call up Bruce and move Griffey to left. Bruce might not be that hitter this year, but he should be soon, and he can't be worse than Dunn in the clutch right now.

Krawhitham
04-19-2008, 02:48 AM
He leads the team in OBP but never gets any hits, bat him lead off UNTIL he starts getting hits again.

Use his OBP to the team's advantage, he is 5th on the team in runs. Let him walk in the leadoff spot, Kep can get him over and Grif or BB can drive him in

UC_Ken
04-19-2008, 12:14 PM
I think the Reds need to replace Dunn with Bruce. Trade Dunn in June when you can, call up Bruce and move Griffey to left. Bruce might not be that hitter this year, but he should be soon, and he can't be worse than Dunn in the clutch right now.

They're not going to make Griffey move to left midseason. Bruce is clearly a better defensive OF but you're not going to make Griffey learn a new position. In GABP anyway RF is a little smaller than LF (3ft. shorter at the poles and 10 ft. shorter in the power alleys) and Griffey has more than a strong enough arm to play RF. If we bring back Griffey next season I would definately move Griffey to LF if they determine that Bruce is better for the team in RF than CF.

Big Hurt
04-19-2008, 03:28 PM
Today's game highlights my feelings on Dunn. He's far too slow to be a suitable OF and his arm is average at best. In today's game he hit a shot that caromed of the wall and layed in the outfield for what seemed like a long time. He's able to get a double and 99% of players would have had a triple, with a few having a chance for an inside the park homerun. Later Prince Fielder is able to score from second base on a sharply hit ball to left field. It was a horrible throw from Dunn that probably would not have gotten him if it was on line. Are you kidding me? Prince Fielder scoring from second?!!!! On a sharply hit ball?!!! Good grief. Dunn goes to first base sometime soon or needs to be traded, IMO.

BLEEDS
04-19-2008, 07:43 PM
I agree with both these posts. But if they are true, then you have to conclude that Dunn is not worth signing after this season, and probably should be traded this season.

A number 2 hitter, no matter how good, is not worth a five year $85M contract, which is what Dunn will get in the open market. That type of contract, especially on the Reds, should go to a cleanup hitter or number 3 hitter, basically you best hitter who the other teams are afraid of.

The Reds have a great number two hitter in Keppinger, and have no great cleanup hitter. They have no one that the other teams is afraid to pitch to. Any championship teams needs a player like that, and Dunn is not that player.

I think the Reds need to replace Dunn with Bruce. Trade Dunn in June when you can, call up Bruce and move Griffey to left. Bruce might not be that hitter this year, but he should be soon, and he can't be worse than Dunn in the clutch right now.

Griff ain't moving to Left, ever.

Bruce replaces Griff, in Right. Later this year, or 2009 for sure.

Griff leaves after this year.

You bat Dunn 3rd next year.

Problem solved.

Anything else is just hair-brained.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
04-19-2008, 10:56 PM
Griff ain't moving to Left, ever.

Bruce replaces Griff, in Right. Later this year, or 2009 for sure.

Griff leaves after this year.

You bat Dunn 3rd next year.

Problem solved.

Anything else is just hair-brained.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


Adam Dunn will be the worst Red's number 3 hitter since Paul Householder.

He can not hit in the clutch, he can not hit with two strikes, and he is not a threat at the plate. Pitchers have found out how to get him out, and he has not adjusted. He can walk and he can hit homers, nothing else. That's why he needs to be in the 2 spot or the 7 spot, and nothing else. If he does show that he is a changed hitter this year, then great, bat him cleanup, but until then, keep him away from the middle of the order.


You want your #3 hitter to be the best overall hitter on the club, and Dunn ain't that. I think Votto or Bruce will be that hitter, it is just a matter of when.

Also, everyone said that Griffey would never move to right. I think he understands where he is at this point of his career. He will move it he believes it will help the team/

Nasty_Boy
04-20-2008, 12:30 AM
Adam Dunn will be the worst Red's number 3 hitter since Paul Householder.

He can not hit in the clutch, he can not hit with two strikes, and he is not a threat at the plate. Pitchers have found out how to get him out, and he has not adjusted. He can walk and he can hit homers, nothing else. That's why he needs to be in the 2 spot or the 7 spot, and nothing else. If he does show that he is a changed hitter this year, then great, bat him cleanup, but until then, keep him away from the middle of the order.


You want your #3 hitter to be the best overall hitter on the club, and Dunn ain't that. I think Votto or Bruce will be that hitter, it is just a matter of when.

Also, everyone said that Griffey would never move to right. I think he understands where he is at this point of his career. He will move it he believes it will help the team/


How do you figure that pitchers have found out how to get him out? His OBP is well over .400 (.423 to be exact) so pitchers are only getting him out 58% of the time. That is far and away the least outs on the team. As for a #3 hitter, you want that to be your best OPS guy (best hitter) and for the last four seasons that has been Adam Dunn. I think Bruce and Votto could eventually be better in the 3 hole but Dunn would be an invaluable 3 hitter with an experience Bruce or Votto hitting behind him. Just because he hasn't set the world on fire the 1st few weeks doesn't mean that he still won't put up the best numbers on the team.

As far as being clutch... as discussed many times it all hinges on how you define clutch. If you're talking about walk-off HRs, game tying HRs, or go ahead HRs then AD is the man.

And you're telling me that a man that is walked and pitched around as much as Dunn is not a threat? A man that has hit 40+ HRs, drove in 100+ runs, and score 100+ times the last 4 seasons is not a threat... Wow! :eek: :eek:

Dracodave
04-20-2008, 12:31 AM
He can walk and he can hit homers, nothing else.

Isn't avoiding OUTS the best thing a hitter can do next to hitting a homerun?

You either put a Run on the board, or you put a runner on board for the next guy..

The ultimate goal on offense is to score, which Dunn I'm afraid of is very good at.

Kingspoint
04-20-2008, 12:35 AM
When all is said and done, it's likely that Adam Dunn puts up either his best or his second best numbers of his career this year.

Dracodave
04-20-2008, 12:36 AM
When all is said and done, it's likely that Adam Dunn puts up either his best or his second best numbers of his career this year.

I agree from atleast a statistical POV around OPS. I really think now is a good time to sieze the contract status

757690
04-20-2008, 01:41 AM
Isn't avoiding OUTS the best thing a hitter can do next to hitting a homerun?

You either put a Run on the board, or you put a runner on board for the next guy..

The ultimate goal on offense is to score, which Dunn I'm afraid of is very good at.

I'll take this reply first.

The issue is whether or not Dunn makes a good #3 hitter. Good #3 hitters are not there to walk, there are there to drive in runs, which you do by getting hits. As #3 hitter his job is to drive in runs, not score them. If Dunn was in the leadoff or 2 slot, then his ability to walk would be valuable. All good #3 hitters get hits in crucial situations, not walks. Here are his stats.


Career:

RISP - 188 Hits: 277 BBs: and he gets a hit 16.2% of the time.
MOB - 363 Hits: 408 BBs: and he gets a hit 18.6% of the time.

He actually walks many more often in crucial situations than he gets hits. That is amazing. Amazingly bad. He should not be hitting in those crucial situations often, which is what putting him in the 3 slot does. He should be hitting #2 or #7.


Here are numbers for the #3 hitters in the rest of the division for comparison.

Pujols:

RISP - 347 Hits: 253 BBs: and he gets a hit 26.3% of the time.
MOB - 652 Hits: 350 BBs: and he gets a hit 27.6% of the time.

D. Lee:

RISP - 355 Hits: 247 BBs: and he gets a hit 22.5% of the time.
MOB - 597 Hits: 343 BBs: and he gets a hit 23.5% of the time.

Fielder:

RISP - 82 Hits: 59 BBs: and he gets a hit 21.8% of the time.
MOB - 154 Hits: 90 BBs: and he gets a hit 23.4% of the time.

Bay:

RISP - 178 Hits: 127 BBs: and he gets a hit 22.6% of the time.
MOB - 301 Hits: 184 BBs: and he gets a hit 23.0% of the time.

Berkman:

RISP - 347 Hits: 303 BBs: and he gets a hit 22.8% of the time.
MOB - 631 Hits: 434 BBs: and he gets a hit 25.0% of the time.


They all have many more hits than walks in those situations, which is why they are good #3 hitters.

Just to be clear. I like Dunn, I think he is a productive hitter, just not a productive middle of the lineup hitter.

757690
04-20-2008, 02:33 AM
How do you figure that pitchers have found out how to get him out? His OBP is well over .400 (.423 to be exact) so pitchers are only getting him out 58% of the time. That is far and away the least outs on the team. As for a #3 hitter, you want that to be your best OPS guy (best hitter) and for the last four seasons that has been Adam Dunn. I think Bruce and Votto could eventually be better in the 3 hole but Dunn would be an invaluable 3 hitter with an experience Bruce or Votto hitting behind him. Just because he hasn't set the world on fire the 1st few weeks doesn't mean that he still won't put up the best numbers on the team.

As far as being clutch... as discussed many times it all hinges on how you define clutch. If you're talking about walk-off HRs, game tying HRs, or go ahead HRs then AD is the man.

And you're telling me that a man that is walked and pitched around as much as Dunn is not a threat? A man that has hit 40+ HRs, drove in 100+ runs, and score 100+ times the last 4 seasons is not a threat... Wow! :eek: :eek:

As I said, he is a threat to hit home runs and to walk. That is not a threat. A threat is someone who can get a hit in any situation, can hit any pitch.

Dunn is a mistake hitter, pure and simple, that explains the high HR and low hits totals. He gets walks because he has to wait for a mistake. A real threat at the plate can get a hit in any situation, and on any count. Here are Dunn's #'s with two strikes.

BA.. OBP. SLG.
.151 .273 .302

Here are the two strike #'s of players I think everyone considers to be threats.

Albert Pujols (The best in the game)
.269 .335 .485

ARod
.223 .308 .392

Manny
.228 .322 .424

Travis Hafner
.220 .314 .415

These guys are threats, Dunn is not.

Again, I like Dunn, but just not as a middle of the lineup, the game is on the line type hitter.

Nasty_Boy
04-20-2008, 12:11 PM
757690

I couldn't disagree more.

Dracodave
04-20-2008, 03:41 PM
Actually, I happen to believe the number 3 hitter is your best hitter to advance, score or create runs, its why theres a Clean-Up hitter behind him that should be your main RBI guy. It's why I've been clamoring for a big righty bat behind Dunn for years now.

When you have a top five of say

Freel/Hopper/Patterson
Votto/Kepp
Dunn
RHPower bat
Griffey/Phillips/Edwin

Thats your best oppertunity to prolong a inning and keep creating runs. If Dunn walks with two outs, whats that hurt? If dunn walks with two on, and creates a third run for your number 4 hitter whats that hurt?

757690
04-20-2008, 07:23 PM
Actually, I happen to believe the number 3 hitter is your best hitter to advance, score or create runs, its why theres a Clean-Up hitter behind him that should be your main RBI guy. It's why I've been clamoring for a big righty bat behind Dunn for years now.

When you have a top five of say

Freel/Hopper/Patterson
Votto/Kepp
Dunn
RHPower bat
Griffey/Phillips/Edwin

Thats your best oppertunity to prolong a inning and keep creating runs. If Dunn walks with two outs, whats that hurt? If dunn walks with two on, and creates a third run for your number 4 hitter whats that hurt?

I completely agree that the Reds need a real cleanup hitter, haven't had one since Greg Vaughn in 1999. Seemed like they always had one, Eric Davis, Kevin Mitchell, Ron Gant, Vaughn, then Dunn and Griffey came along and were supposed to be it, but never were. I can't see them being a playoff team until they get one. I am hoping that Votto or Bruce will be it.

I still want my #3 hitter to be the team's best hitter, not the best walker. There are circumstances where a walk is as good as a hit, but in the # 3 slot I just think that there will be more where a hit is better. That's why the great #3 hitters are walked so often, even with a good clean up hitter behind them.

Kingspoint
04-20-2008, 08:07 PM
I agree from atleast a statistical POV around OPS. I really think now is a good time to sieze the contract status

Yes, it would be.

OUReds
04-20-2008, 08:18 PM
Dunn gets on base and hits for power. He continues to do so with runners on base. He is the Red's most potent offensive force (at least historically) and he needs to bat third.

You are using tortured logic and hand picked statistical subsets that ignore Dunn's strengths and accentuate his weaknesses.

I respect your opinion, and it is certainly an interesting one, but it's sophistry at its very finest.

tommycash
04-21-2008, 10:58 AM
I just wish Dunn would not strikeout more. And before you guys come on here and say that strikeouts don't matter, consider this: when Adam Dunn does not strikeout he has a lifetime BA of .367, and I am sure his OBP and OPS go way up too. That is according to his career stats I got from baseball-reference.com. I want to see Adam Dunn stay in Cincinnati, but I would like to see him get more hits and RBIs. A strikeout is not just another out. A strikeout is an opportunity in which a hit cannot be produced. When the ball is struck, three things can happen; 1. hit, 2.out, 3. error. You have no chance of a hit when you strikeout. I am just saying that when Dunn puts the ball in play, he is a much better hitter, and it usually is better than just a single.

Moose Milligan
04-21-2008, 11:24 AM
Dunn gets on base. Two hole would be a good spot for him.

Watching Corey Patterson in Baltimore for the past couple of years, he's not a leadoff hitter as he doesn't get on base at a good clip....at all. He can bunt for a base hit and anyone can see that he's got the talent...he's just not a patient hitter.

Patterson would be a good candidate to hit 9th if your pitcher bats 8th...When he does get on base, he's a threat to steal and it'd be excellent to have him on when the lineup turns over.

tommycash
04-21-2008, 11:28 AM
So do you pay 13 million for a good number 2 hitter?

Moose Milligan
04-21-2008, 11:37 AM
So do you pay 13 million for a good number 2 hitter?

You're asking me?

I pay 13 million for a good hitter, period.

The thing about Dunn seems to be that he can fill a void no matter where he hits. 2-5, he can hit anywhere in there. So why try to pigeonhole him into one spot? Embrace the fact that he's versatile and that he can help by getting on base near the top of the order or hit for power in the middle.

tommycash
04-21-2008, 11:45 AM
I don't think he is worth 13 million. Of course I only think you pay 13 million to really good pitchers and definite HOFers. Dunn is not quite there in my opinion.

Moose Milligan
04-21-2008, 11:54 AM
I don't think he is worth 13 million. Of course I only think you pay 13 million to really good pitchers and definite HOFers. Dunn is not quite there in my opinion.

Good news is that it ain't your money ;)

BLEEDS
04-21-2008, 11:57 AM
Dunn gets on base and hits for power. He continues to do so with runners on base. He is the Red's most potent offensive force (at least historically) and he needs to bat third.

You are using tortured logic and hand picked statistical subsets that ignore Dunn's strengths and accentuate his weaknesses.

I respect your opinion, and it is certainly an interesting one, but it's sophistry at its very finest.

Post of the Year Nominee.

These people "hand pick" these stats, and ignore the BASIS for collecting them. Then use wording such as "He actually walks many more often in crucial situations than he gets hits" and can't understand the "WHY" of it? You think he's getting walked because he WANTS to get walks instead of hits? ANY chance the pitchers might be PITCHING AROUND HIM since he's batting 5th and normally has a struggling righty bat behind him that they can pitch to INSTEAD?!?! No, has to be that AD sucks and prefers to "TAKE" walks.

Bat him 3rd, and see how many times he "takes" walks when he has REAL hitters behind him and not out machines and struggling rookies/2nd year guys trying to establish themselves in the Big Leagues, followed by your #7 hitter (normally a weak hitting infielder) and the Catcher...

No, just look at your stats, and compare other people's #3 hitters to our #5 hitter.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

757690
04-21-2008, 03:31 PM
Post of the Year Nominee.

These people "hand pick" these stats, and ignore the BASIS for collecting them. Then use wording such as "He actually walks many more often in crucial situations than he gets hits" and can't understand the "WHY" of it? You think he's getting walked because he WANTS to get walks instead of hits? ANY chance the pitchers might be PITCHING AROUND HIM since he's batting 5th and normally has a struggling righty bat behind him that they can pitch to INSTEAD?!?! No, has to be that AD sucks and prefers to "TAKE" walks.

Bat him 3rd, and see how many times he "takes" walks when he has REAL hitters behind him and not out machines and struggling rookies/2nd year guys trying to establish themselves in the Big Leagues, followed by your #7 hitter (normally a weak hitting infielder) and the Catcher...

No, just look at your stats, and compare other people's #3 hitters to our #5 hitter.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


First those were Dunn's career stats, and he has batted all over the place.

So let's look at his stats as a #3 hitter. They are the worst of any position he hits in.



I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Batting 1st 17 15 70 56 16 12 0 0 7 12 11 0 18 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 .214 .371 .589 .961 .161 112 Batting 1st
Batting 2nd 101 100 466 392 79 109 25 1 27 74 64 1 128 8 0 2 3 6 7 0 .278 .388 .554 .942 .343 109 Batting 2nd
Batting 3rd 119 119 533 431 65 96 22 0 24 57 94 9 144 6 0 2 1 7 10 4 .223 .368 .441 .809 .272 82 Batting 3rd
Batting 4th 266 266 1149 961 168 249 57 2 64 153 172 14 298 13 0 3 5 16 12 6 .259 .378 .522 .900 .307 100 Batting 4th
Batting 5th 312 309 1323 1048 199 251 48 5 77 197 257 31 351 10 1 7 3 17 18 5 .240 .392 .515 .907 .278 103 Batting 5th
Batting 6th 132 130 534 441 87 106 25 0 36 78 83 11 147 7 1 2 4 4 8 3 .240 .368 .542 .910 .269 102 Batting 6th



I think it is clear that he is best at the #2 spot. He actually hits more HR's per at bat and drives in more runs per at bat. Those are all his stats, you can't say I picked out ones to make my argument, and they all are of large sample sizes. Dunn clearly is not a #3 hitter. That is the worst spot to hit him.

Here is how other #3 hitters compare at the #3 slot.


Derek Lee


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Batting 1st 3 0 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .333 .333 .333 .667 .333 56 Batting 1st
Batting 2nd 64 63 295 258 37 72 17 0 7 25 31 1 51 3 0 3 2 5 5 1 .279 .359 .426 .786 .320 82 Batting 2nd
Batting 3rd 340 334 1478 1283 232 406 98 4 72 189 169 29 257 13 0 13 16 37 22 12 .316 .398 .567 .965 .345 120 Batting 3rd
Batting 4th 134 125 552 471 69 118 34 1 20 79 69 4 117 8 0 4 6 11 13 4 .251 .353 .454 .808 .290 86 Batting 4th
Batting 5th 208 198 856 740 122 206 39 6 34 126 103 6 200 6 1 6 8 25 24 6 .278 .368 .485 .854 .336 96 Batting 5th
Batting 6th 498 474 2002 1761 270 489 109 10 94 283 207 17 439 22 1 11 29 33 25 16 .278 .359 .511 .870 .319 99 Batting 6th

Ryan Braun

I
Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Batting 2nd 2 2 9 8 2 4 1 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 .500 .444 1.000 1.444 .375 193 Batting 2nd
Batting 3rd 104 104 462 422 84 137 24 5 30 89 28 0 103 7 0 5 6 13 14 5 .325 .372 .618 .991 .364 109 Batting 3rd
Batting 4th 23 23 95 92 12 21 3 1 6 15 3 1 25 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 .228 .253 .478 .731 .246 52 Batting 4th


Lance Berkman


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Batting 1st 2 1 7 6 2 2 0 0 2 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .429 1.333 1.762 .000 243 Batting 1st
Batting 2nd 19 17 78 70 15 23 4 2 3 9 6 0 10 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 .329 .385 .571 .956 .345 96 Batting 2nd
Batting 3rd 466 462 2036 1704 306 508 112 5 110 348 304 40 339 15 0 13 18 40 23 9 .298 .406 .563 .970 .314 100 Batting 3rd
Batting 4th 481 481 2106 1740 323 532 120 9 109 353 318 34 337 27 0 21 16 34 22 14 .306 .416 .573 .989 .322 104 Batting 4th
Batting 5th 150 146 629 509 99 153 38 2 25 97 111 18 108 6 0 3 6 9 4 6 .301 .429 .530 .960 .338 99 Batting 5th
Batting 6th 67 63 274 220 45 66 12 2 12 48 46 5 37 4 1 3 1 1 6 2 .300 .425 .536 .961 .310 99 Batting 6th


Albert Pujols


I Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip tOPS+ Split
+-+------------+----+----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------------+
Batting 1st 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 2.000 1.000 299 Batting 1st
Batting 2nd 4 0 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 .500 .250 0 Batting 2nd
Batting 3rd 802 798 3559 3033 643 1012 219 10 221 623 458 102 312 42 0 26 37 105 37 17 .334 .425 .631 1.056 .313 103 Batting 3rd
Batting 4th 237 234 1027 883 180 285 72 2 51 211 120 18 117 12 1 11 14 30 3 4 .323 .406 .582 .989 .322 90 Batting 4th

Dunn is no where near these guys when he bats 3rd. He is however, one of the best #2 hitters in the game. I agree he should not bat 5th and that does hurt his production. But the stats show that batting him 3rd hurts his production even more.


Second, those stats I picked out in the previous posts were not picked at random and go to the heart of the argument I was making. I argued what I considered to be qualities that I want to see in a #3 hitter: The ability to get hits, not walks, with men on base, and the ability to hit with two strikes. Please tell me why you think a #3 hitter does not need to be able to get hits with men on base, or be able to hit with two strikes.

mlbfan30
04-21-2008, 04:04 PM
One thing you miss about Dunn hitting second is the people in front of him.

If the Pitcher, and Patterson with his .300 OBP are in front of Dunn, how many chances will he ever have to actually drive men in? Dunn will hit 40HRs and in those HRs, shouldn't you want to maximize the amount of times he hits them with MOB. That's a lot of SOLO shots.

Assuming Dunn hits 3rd, that just increases the amount of time he gets up with MOB, and those HRs will matter more. That's the basic argument for me.

However, If you view Dunn has a guy who needs to get on base, then #2 isn't so bad. Just don't expect him to get many RBI. The problem is that a casual fan sees 40 HR and 75 RBI and complains he's not a productive hitter. You can't really have it both ways.

The best compromise is the #3 spot so he can have a higher chance to drive men in, but also can get on base for those behind him. Career stats in certain spots don't mean very much. A hitter isn't going to really alter his approach unless outside factors tell him to. He's never been in the #3 spot for an extended period of time, so it's possible he just happened to be in a slump or have a bad day when he was there.

BLEEDS
04-21-2008, 04:05 PM
I thought you were using RISP/MOB stats to prove he wasn't a #3 hitter, now you want to use career NON-SITUATIONAL stats?

Clinton?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Dracodave
04-21-2008, 04:32 PM
I thought you were using RISP/MOB stats to prove he wasn't a #3 hitter, now you want to use career NON-SITUATIONAL stats?

Clinton?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

It's not the changing story that gets me, its the fact that he's citing number three hitters with DECENT batters around them..

Aramis Ramieriz for Lee.

Pulojs had Rolen and Edmonds...now he's got Chris.

Berkman has Carlos Lee.

Braun has Fielder.

Dunn has who? An aging Griffey who couldnt stay healthy and ???

This offense was supposed to be drafted around Griffey, then Dunn, but neither got the supporting cast needed. Kearns never panned out, Lopez was a flash in the pan, Phillips might be next best thing, Votto COULD get there...Bruce might be..

Thats alot of mights, could have beens and flashes that were supposed to spark our offense..

OUReds
04-21-2008, 06:08 PM
Those numbers say he was not as productive a number three hole hitter in the past as elsewhere (in...wait for it...a relatively smaller sample size then the number 4/5 slot).

It has less predictive weight then a larger statistical sample (that of, say, all his middle of the lineup at bats) unless you think there is something unique about hitting in the three hole that make those 2500 PAs in the 4/5 slot irrelevant. You are using statistical subsets to try and make your point again. Adam would be fine in the three spot in the batting order.

If I had to guess (I'd have to research it) I'd say the only significant time Adam has seen in the three hole is when Jr is down with injury, meaning...

a) most of the ABs were earlier in his career
b) Adam was the only offensive threat in the line up and got pitched around (his OBP is about the same, but his SLG in down)

BLEEDS
04-21-2008, 06:19 PM
BUT BUT BUT - look at the statistics!!!!

Someone should nominate this guy for the ORG!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

RSNtransplant
04-21-2008, 07:09 PM
I thought you were using RISP/MOB stats to prove he wasn't a #3 hitter, now you want to use career NON-SITUATIONAL stats?

Clinton?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

How is batting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc, non-situational?

757690
04-21-2008, 09:26 PM
BUT BUT BUT - look at the statistics!!!!

Someone should nominate this guy for the ORG!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I actually am more of a scout guy. I only use stats to see if my observations are backed up by stats.

Basically, I have been watching Dunn fail as a middle of the lineup hitter for years. Everytime he comes up with men on base, the first question I ask is "whose on deck?" because I know that he will not get the job done. I decided to see if the stats backed up my observations and found that they did.

And I have been asked a few times to apply to the ORG and refuse to. I would never want to be part of an exclusive club that would have me as a member.

757690
04-21-2008, 09:30 PM
It's not the changing story that gets me, its the fact that he's citing number three hitters with DECENT batters around them..

Aramis Ramieriz for Lee.

Pulojs had Rolen and Edmonds...now he's got Chris.

Berkman has Carlos Lee.

Braun has Fielder.

Dunn has who? An aging Griffey who couldnt stay healthy and ???

This offense was supposed to be drafted around Griffey, then Dunn, but neither got the supporting cast needed. Kearns never panned out, Lopez was a flash in the pan, Phillips might be next best thing, Votto COULD get there...Bruce might be..

Thats alot of mights, could have beens and flashes that were supposed to spark our offense..

I agree. But who do the Reds have now that are better? Probably if Dunn was on the Red Sox and had Manny hitting behind him, he would do better in the clutch. But he is not, he is on the Reds that do not have, nor have had for close to 10 years a real clean up hitter. I have already said that if the Reds had a real clean up hitter, I would consider Dunn hitting 3rd. Until then, I say bat him 2.

Nasty_Boy
04-21-2008, 11:12 PM
I still don't see how AD has failed as a middle of the order hitter. He's put up big numbers in every power/run producing category. His RBIs would be out of this world if he ever had guys that got on base in front of him. If the Reds had a .370+ OBP guy hitting lead off and Kepp in the 2 hole, Dunn would drive in 110+ every season.

BLEEDS
04-21-2008, 11:33 PM
And I have been asked a few times to apply to the ORG and refuse to. I would never want to be part of an exclusive club that would have me as a member.

Now THAT is funny!! :thumbup:

PEACE

-BLEEDS