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reds44
04-17-2008, 12:29 AM
Down or Out
Fogg
Coffey
Castro
Freel
Valentin

Up
Belisle
Bray
Bruce
Hairston
Ross

Lineup:
Keppinger
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Bruce
Votto
Ross/Bako

There is way too much dead weight on the roster. The honeymoon with Corey Patterson is over as well.

Screwball
04-17-2008, 12:33 AM
The honeymoon with Corey Patterson is over as well.

That didn't take long.

KronoRed
04-17-2008, 12:37 AM
You have two lefties there at the bottom of that lineup, Dusty won't do that ;)

kheidg-
04-17-2008, 12:48 AM
I'm fine with keeping Freel and Valentin. Coffey could use the minors but he is the least of our worries if he isn't put into the game with the lead.

Bako is not going to keep hitting.

Fogg must go.

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 12:48 AM
Fogg gives up nine runs in Reds' loss to Cubs

By Hal McCoy

Staff Writer

Thursday, April 17, 2008

CHICAGO Homer Bailey. Matt Belisle. Justin Lehr. Daryl Thompson. Phineas T. Bluster. Moby Dick.

Anybody, but anybody, but Josh Fogg.

When Fogg's turn rolls around Monday, April 21, in Great American Ball Park against the Los Angeles Dodgers, if somebody else isn't pitching then the Cincinnati Reds aren't trying.

Try these numbers on for size, and they definitely come from Rochester Big & Tall: two-plus innings, nine runs, seven hits, two walks, a hit batsman, a home run, four doubles.

What did they expect? Three times Fogg has given up nine runs in a game, all three times to the Chicago Cubs.

It was the grand opening of a 12-3 victory for the Cubs, pushing the Reds' losing streak to five and making it looking-glass clear that it is time for a change.

Asked if a change could be made, manager Dusty Baker said, "We might."

Ah, might makes right.

Bailey is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts at Class AAA Louisville, and his one loss was on a home run that hit atop the ball and skipped over.

Belisle, on rehab for a sore arm, is 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA in starts at Class A Sarasota, Class AA Chattanooga and Louisville.

Lehr is 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA in two starts at Louisville and was International League Pitcher of the Week.

Thompson is only at Chattanooga, but he is the guy during spring training who faced the New York Yankees in Tampa and struck out the side, then faced them again and went 1-2-3. He is 2-0 for the Lookouts with a 0.51 ERA and was Southern League Pitcher of the Week.

The Reds did little against Chicago starter Carlos Zambrano seven innings, two runs, eight hits and Zambrano rubbed their noses in it by slapping three hits of his own.

"We didn't have much of a chance," Baker said. "You give Big-Z a 10-run lead in the third, and you might catch up, but not likely."

Fogg's personal assessment was succinct and centered on something associated with the equine world.

Baker mentioned that the Reds were unable to use the prevailing winds, blowing out to left, but Fogg refused to use it as an excuse.

"I didn't pitch well, so the way the wind was blowing didn't matter," he said. "Zambrano pitched well, so it didn't bother him."

Some positive news? Relief pitcher Jeremy Affeldt pitched two scoreless innings and struck out five, when the score already was 10-1.

Left fielder Adam Dunn in his 15th game had his first double when the score already was 10-1, then hit his second home run of the year when the score was 11-2.

Baker permitted Fogg to stay on the mound longer than he normally would, an attempt to save the bullpen for this afternoon's game and a string of 14 more days in a row without rest.

As it was, he used Mike Lincoln, Jeremy Affeldt, Ken Mercker, David Weathers and Francisco Cabrera.

"With a day game coming up, that's not much turn-around time for the bullpen guys who pitched to recuperate," he said. "We need Edinson Volquez (today's starter) to go deep into the game and save our bullpen.

"We have Milwaukee coming in to Cincinnati for the weekend, a high-powered offense, and we need a fresh bullpen," Baker added.

The warning signals came before the first pitch Fogg threw. He was as bad in the bullpen as he was in the game.

"It was a little bit of everything on Josh location, got behind, didn't have his normal velocity or his change-up," said Baker.

"I was talking to Javy (catcher Javier Valentin), and he said Josh didn't have much in the bullpen warming up, either."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/04/17/ddn041708spredsweb.html

WMR
04-17-2008, 12:54 AM
- DFA Castro
- Promote Bruce ... bat him lead-off and pencil him into CF EVERY DAY ... CPatt becomes 4th OFer
- Demote Coffey
- Promote Belisle (place into Fogg's spot in the rotation)
- Place Fogg on waivers ... promote Bill Bray
- Play Joey Votto EVERY DAY
- Attempt to trade Freel ... Fropper is way too derivative for a team like the Reds

reds44
04-17-2008, 12:56 AM
Bruce really doesn't belong leading off.

WMR
04-17-2008, 01:03 AM
Bruce really doesn't belong leading off.

Maybe not when his development is finished, just that I'd rather have him at the top then at the bottom (which is where Dusty would likely "break him in.")

Bruce
Kepp
Dunn
Griffey
B.Phil
EE
Votto
Catcher
Pitcher

Matt700wlw
04-17-2008, 01:05 AM
Fay:

Changes on the way?

I aksed Dusty Baker if the Reds might have to go to minors to get some pitching help in the wake of the 12-3 bashing Wednesday.

His answer: "We might."

But the look on his face said: We better.

Josh Fogg has averaged 3 1/3 innings in his three starts with the Reds. That kills the bullpen.

The Reds have plenty of choices in the minors: Homer Bailey is 2-1 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts for the Triple-A Louisville. Matt Belisle is 3-0 with a 1.09 ERA in three minor league rehab starts. Daryl Thompson is 2-0 with 0.51 ERA at Double-A.

It's early. But it will get late quick if the Reds don't turn it around.

Screwball
04-17-2008, 01:09 AM
Bruce really doesn't belong leading off.

Agreed. 6 or 7 to start off would work for me.

Then again, he is a CFer... ;)

WMR
04-17-2008, 01:09 AM
I must say, I am very fond of having a manager with the chutzpah to say something and have upper management actually take note, listen, and often acquiesce to his problems with the roster. The days of "Yes-Men" are apparently finished.

WMR
04-17-2008, 01:10 AM
Agreed. 6 or 7 to start off would work for me.

Then again, he is a CFer... ;)

:lol:

Call me Dusty Junior. ;)

I would just love getting Bruce the max number of ABs. I think his OB skills will be just sick.

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 01:13 AM
Eh, I give Homer Bailey more than three starts in Louisville to work his problems out. I'm encouraged with his progress through three starts but I'd like to see him get at least 12-15 starts before I'd consider calling him up. Daryl Thompson? Nah. He's got exactly 17.2 innings in Double-A. He's not nearly ready yet. Ship out Josh Fogg and replace him with Matt Belisle. Send Todd Coffey to Louisville and bring up Bill Bray in his place. Send out one of Freel/Hopper and sign Mike Piazza as a RH bat off the bench.

Screwball
04-17-2008, 01:14 AM
I would just love getting Bruce the max number of ABs.

Yeah, I can understand that. But the knock on him (if there's even been one) has always been a lack of walks. I'd think facing MLB pitching for the first time would be tough on anybody's OBP, even someone as good as Bruce.

However, I think his SLG will still be up there, so I wouldn't mind seeing him drive in his buddy Dunner all summer long.

WMR
04-17-2008, 01:22 AM
You make a good point.

I'm not married to the idea. ;)

Maybe:

Kepp
Dunn
EE
Bruce
Junior
B.Phil
Votto
Catcher

Gets you a decent Lefty-Righty split while putting your highest OBP players in position to do the most damage. Minimizes Phillips GIDP while maximizing his slugging.

KronoRed
04-17-2008, 01:43 AM
I'd leave Bruce and Bailey out of any moves for now, maybe June/July for them.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2008, 04:04 AM
Down or Out
Fogg
Coffey
Castro
Freel
Valentin

Up
Belisle
Bray
Bruce
Hairston
Ross

Lineup:
Keppinger
Dunn
Phillips
Griffey
Encarnacion
Bruce
Votto
Ross/Bako

There is way too much dead weight on the roster. The honeymoon with Corey Patterson is over as well.

:thumbup:

:clap::clap::clap::clap:

Time to start playing baseball.

klw
04-17-2008, 06:23 AM
- DFA Castro
- Promote Bruce ... bat him lead-off and pencil him into CF EVERY DAY ... CPatt becomes 4th OFer
- Demote Coffey
- Promote Belisle (place into Fogg's spot in the rotation)
- Place Fogg on waivers ... promote Bill Bray
- Play Joey Votto EVERY DAY
- Attempt to trade Freel ... Fropper is way too derivative for a team like the Reds

Bruce was hurt last night. While they say it is day to day he must of jammed it pretty well for him to come out while so close to hitting for the cycle. I just think in that situation I wouldn't be long range and mature unless it was really smarting. I wouldn't be surprised to see him wake up a lot sorer than expected and miss a few days but I hope I'm wrong and I obviously know nothing other than what Fay and Trent posted.

mth123
04-17-2008, 06:29 AM
I think a trade for a RH bat is a better route. I don't think we'll see Fogg cut and he and Affeldt can not be dealt until some time in June (not sure ofthe exact day) since they signed as major league free agents. I think we'll see Belisle and Ross on Friday and maybe Bray as well. I think Coffey is the best choice of the pitchers to go down, not sure who else at this point. Position players are a little more murky, I'd risk the possibility that Phillips may have to play short in an emergency until some one can be recalled and dump Castro when Ross comes back. We may see some mystery DL stints to keep from losing players. Maybe Javy's hammy is hurting him.

This team needs to make a deal or two and has since before spring training began. The bench has major league role players who have some abilities, but the fits just aren't right with too many overlapping strengths and some glaring needs not filled. A RH Power bat that can play the corners and PH is number 1 on the list. Hatte as the LHPH is ok, but his position and lack of versatility means the only way he can play and stay sharp is to sit Votto or maybe Dunn and that is less than ideal. The Reds need to free Hatte in exchange for another need (don't forget the bullpen) and get a LHPH that plays a different position (where a RH Bat is the starter and can get logical AB's while the starter rests against a RH Pitcher). Lacking an acquisition, Javy may be a default choice, but I'd prefer something better. This isn't a reaction to the losing streak. These needs were obvious prior to Spring Training.

jojo
04-17-2008, 08:03 AM
Bruce really doesn't belong leading off.

Sure he does.

Cyclone792
04-17-2008, 08:17 AM
Fogg gives up nine runs in Reds' loss to Cubs

I looked up Josh Fogg's opponents' OPS for a good laugh, and I got the good laugh:

.340/.407/.723/1.131

He's just another in a long line already populated by guys such as Jason Bere, Jimmy Anderson, Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Joe Mays, Eric Milton, Phil Dumatrait, Dave Williams, Ramon Ortiz, Jeff Austin, Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler, Osvaldo Fernandez, Rob Bell, Brian Reith, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few others.

Just a pure bad pitcher doing what bad pitchers do. What's more surprising is that people actually expected something different.

princeton
04-17-2008, 09:02 AM
regarding Jay Bruce as leadoff hitter:

Eric Davis seemed to be a perfect leadoff hitter (VERY fast, lots of walks), but my cobwebbed recollection is that when Reds brought him up and installed him there, he really tanked. Reds fans thought he was another Paul Householder.

when they dropped him to 4th, he said that he felt much more comfortable and really produced.

my impression has been that young guys seem to put more pressure on themselves when they hit leadoff. Maybe they just psyche themselves out. I'd like to see him hit lower in order.

redsmetz
04-17-2008, 09:05 AM
Mth123's mentioned we can't trade Fogg until sometime in June - it's the 15th. So if he's to go now, he'll just need to be DFA'd (right now, it would cost us about $600K after lopping off a pro-rated amount of the league minimum if a team picks him up). Otherwise to the pen to serve as the mop carrier. I don't think we'll see the club dragging these things out this season.

Kc61
04-17-2008, 09:44 AM
Reds won't do all of this. I agree with poster who said that Bruce and Bailey stay at AAA now. The point of sending them out was to get seasoning, not to stay at AAA for two weeks.

The moves I expect soon are:

Belisle comes up. Coffey goes down. Fogg becomes the mop up guy in the pen, Belisle to the rotation.

One or two right handed bats added from AAA or outside. I'd expect Castro to be let go and Hairston to replace him. I would also expect Cabrera (or someone from the outside) to become the platoon first baseman with Votto, and either Hopper or Hatteberg moved.

So that's three moves I definitely see happening.

The fourth move is to get Bill Bray up to the major leagues. It is frankly ridiculous that he is not at Cincy. If Coffey is out for Belisle, I don't know who gets sent down to make room for Bray. I think it depends on who performs well/poorly in the pen the next couple of weeks.

These are short term moves only. Longer term, there's a need for one major righty hitter and a good platoon righty first baseman. Those additions would help a lot.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 09:47 AM
In general I agree with the pitching suggestions--the promotions and demotions.

I think the offense (and defense), on the other hand, requires a complete overhaul. That was a project for the offseason, so it's unlikely to be dealt with now--maybe some at the deadline, but mostly this offseason. Most changes from the within the system will be cosmetic this season.

Raisor
04-17-2008, 09:57 AM
regarding Jay Bruce as leadoff hitter:

Eric Davis seemed to be a perfect leadoff hitter (VERY fast, lots of walks), but my cobwebbed recollection is that when Reds brought him up and installed him there, he really tanked. Reds fans thought he was another Paul Householder.

.

310 career PA's in the leadoff spot

.204/.297/.431

Basicly Cory Patterson :thumbup:

Kc61
04-17-2008, 09:58 AM
In general I agree with the pitching suggestions--the promotions and demotions.

I think the offense (and defense), on the other hand, requires a complete overhaul. That was a project for the offseason, so it's unlikely to be dealt with now--maybe some at the deadline, but mostly this offseason. Most changes from the within the system will be cosmetic this season.

Agree that a lot of changes are needed on offense, but I don't agree that this project was for the off-season. The team had a 5 plus ERA last year,this off-season was properly devoted to pitching. And I do believe the pitching is dramatically better, despite the last several nights.

With Griffey and Dunn in their last contractual season, the time to change the offense is this coming year. At least one will be gone, opening up some salary. In addition, Jay Bruce, who looks like a great young player, is on the cusp.

It is very, very painful to watch the team transform. Last night was unbearable, I had the game on radio and just turned it off. But I really do see progress in the team and the organization as a whole. The corner will turn.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 10:00 AM
Agree that a lot of changes are needed on offense, but I don't agree that this project was for the off-season. The team had a 5 plus ERA last year,this off-season was properly devoted to pitching. And I do believe the pitching is dramatically better, despite the last several nights.

With Griffey and Dunn in their last contractual season, the time to change the offense is this coming year. At least one will be gone, opening up some salary. In addition, Jay Bruce, who looks like a great young player, is on the cusp.

It is very, very painful to watch the team transform. Last night was unbearable, I had the game on radio and just turned it off. But I really do see progress in the team and the organization as a whole. The corner will turn.

Whether it's this offseason or next, the project is a huge one, not likely to get dealt with in-season.

Kc61
04-17-2008, 10:02 AM
Whether it's this offseason or next, the project is a huge one, not likely to get dealt with in-season.

Oh, I agree entirely. But whenever, it is the next thing.

TOBTTReds
04-17-2008, 10:14 AM
I don't mind Patterson still, but obviously not in the leadoff spot. I think a lot of you have good ideas that may never happen (like Jr. not batting 3rd).

Benihana
04-17-2008, 10:36 AM
Reds won't do all of this. I agree with poster who said that Bruce and Bailey stay at AAA now. The point of sending them out was to get seasoning, not to stay at AAA for two weeks.

The moves I expect soon are:

Belisle comes up. Coffey goes down. Fogg becomes the mop up guy in the pen, Belisle to the rotation.

One or two right handed bats added from AAA or outside. I'd expect Castro to be let go and Hairston to replace him. I would also expect Cabrera (or someone from the outside) to become the platoon first baseman with Votto, and either Hopper or Hatteberg moved.

So that's three moves I definitely see happening.

The fourth move is to get Bill Bray up to the major leagues. It is frankly ridiculous that he is not at Cincy. If Coffey is out for Belisle, I don't know who gets sent down to make room for Bray. I think it depends on who performs well/poorly in the pen the next couple of weeks.

These are short term moves only. Longer term, there's a need for one major righty hitter and a good platoon righty first baseman. Those additions would help a lot.

Agree with most of this. Belisle and Bray need to be with the big club, and Belisle needs to be in the rotation. I'd demote Coffey and place Weathers on the DL with a "weak arm." Hopefully they can figure out something other than his age that ails him. I'm fine with Fogg in the mop-up role, at least until he can be dealt with after June 15.

DFA Castro and Valentin. Bring up Hairston and sign Mike Piazza.

Bailey stays in Louisville until the draft at least. He's gotta have eight or nine very strong outings before I consider promoting him. Bruce should stay in Louisville for at least another couple weeks as well. I give Corey Patterson a little more slack than most, but if he continues to struggle, drop him to 7th in the order and platoon him and Hopper for a couple weeks. If that still doesn't work, I DFA Freel, bring up Bruce and play him every single day, with this being my lineup:

SS Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Griffey
CF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako

I would hang onto Freel for another couple of weeks and hope he can show something that would make another team want him. Then I trade him immediately.

redsmetz
04-17-2008, 10:43 AM
Has anyone else noticed something very refreshing around RZ? While we will always continue to disagree, we're seeing in this thread (and others as well), reasonable suggestions with solid back-up for positions. I hope the club gets moving on making some of this happen ASAP, but I've really enjoyed some of these discussions the last several days. Of course, the ballclub winning would be enjoyable too!

Guacarock
04-17-2008, 10:44 AM
Reds won't do all of this. I agree with poster who said that Bruce and Bailey stay at AAA now. The point of sending them out was to get seasoning, not to stay at AAA for two weeks.

The moves I expect soon are:

Belisle comes up. Coffey goes down. Fogg becomes the mop up guy in the pen, Belisle to the rotation.

One or two right handed bats added from AAA or outside. I'd expect Castro to be let go and Hairston to replace him. I would also expect Cabrera (or someone from the outside) to become the platoon first baseman with Votto, and either Hopper or Hatteberg moved.

So that's three moves I definitely see happening.

The fourth move is to get Bill Bray up to the major leagues. It is frankly ridiculous that he is not at Cincy. If Coffey is out for Belisle, I don't know who gets sent down to make room for Bray. I think it depends on who performs well/poorly in the pen the next couple of weeks.

These are short term moves only. Longer term, there's a need for one major righty hitter and a good platoon righty first baseman. Those additions would help a lot.

These four moves pretty much mirror what I see happening. But a fifth move will also have to be made soon -- some shifting around among the catchers to accommodate Ross' return from the DL. Short term, Bako could get sent down, owing to Valentin having a little more clout and cachet as a lefthanded PH, especially if Hatteberg is gone. But Bako is clearly the better game caller and handler of the young pitching phenoms, and he's also been on fire with the bat, so a trade involving Valentin could occur sooner rather than later.

Kc61
04-17-2008, 10:48 AM
Agree with most of this. Belisle and Bray need to be with the big club, and Belisle needs to be in the rotation. I'd demote Coffey and place Weathers on the DL with a "weak arm." Hopefully they can figure out something other than his age that ails him. I'm fine with Fogg in the mop-up role, at least until he can be dealt with after June 15.

DFA Castro and Valentin. Bring up Hairston and sign Mike Piazza.

Bailey stays in Louisville until the draft at least. He's gotta have eight or nine very strong outings before I consider promoting him. Bruce should stay in Louisville for at least another couple weeks as well. I give Corey Patterson a little more slack than most, but if he continues to struggle, drop him to 7th in the order and platoon him and Hopper for a couple weeks. If that still doesn't work, I DFA Freel, bring up Bruce and play him every single day, with this being my lineup:

SS Keppinger
LF Dunn
2B Phillips
RF Griffey
CF Bruce
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako

I would hang onto Freel for another couple of weeks and hope he can show something that would make another team want him. Then I trade him immediately.

In defense of Freel. He missed a lot of time last year. He is an overly aggressive player, but as a bench guy he is quite valuable. He fills in at a lot of positions and, as in most years, will get hot offensively at some point.

Given his overly generous salary, I don't see him moving and I see no reason to eat his salary.

The rest of the bench, though, could all change soon. Castro, whatever his merits previously, is not long for the team. With Bako's good play, I think Valentin is on borrowed time. Hatteberg is a good player, but he doesn't fit. Two lefty first basemen who don't play other positions doesn't work. And Hopper is redundant of Freel.

So to me, I think, Freel is the most likely bench player to stay -- unless they can trade him for value, in which case he too could be moved.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 10:48 AM
These four moves pretty much mirror what I see happening. But a fifth move will also have to be made soon -- some shifting around among the catchers to accommodate Ross' return from the DL. Short term, Bako could get sent down, owing to Valentin having a little more clout and cachet as a lefthanded PH, especially if Hatteberg is gone. But Bako is clearly the better game caller and handler of the young pitching phenoms, and he's also been on fire with the bat, so a trade involving Valentin could occur sooner rather than later.

I would much rather see Bako stay and Valentin go. I think if the Reds do the other corresponding moves, that would leave us with a pinch-hitting arsenal of Piazza and Hairston from the right side as well as Hatteberg and Patterson from the left. No need for Valentin, especially when Bako is far superior defensively (and a critical component to Cueto and Volquez's success.)

Benihana
04-17-2008, 10:50 AM
In defense of Freel. He missed a lot of time last year. He is an overly aggressive player, but as a bench guy he is quite valuable. He fills in at a lot of positions and, as in most years, will get hot offensively at some point.

Given his overly generous salary, I don't see him moving and I see no reason to eat his salary.

The rest of the bench, though, could all change soon. Castro, whatever his merits previously, is not long for the team. With Bako's good play, I think Valentin is on borrowed time. Hatteberg is a good player, but he doesn't fit. Two lefty first basemen who don't play other positions doesn't work. And Hopper is redundant of Freel.

So to me, I think, Freel is the most likely bench player to stay -- unless they can trade him for value, in which case he too could be moved.


Does Hopper have options? If so, maybe he goes down if/when Bruce is called up. I see your logic for Freel staying, and Patterson certainly isn't going anywhere.

I do want to see Valentin and Castro gone as soon as possible. I think Hatteberg has to get hot and produce a little bit before he gets shipped anywhere. In the meantime, I'm fine with him as a lefty pinch hitter.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 10:50 AM
This team needs to make a deal or two and has since before spring training began. The bench has major league role players who have some abilities, but the fits just aren't right with too many overlapping strengths and some glaring needs not filled. A RH Power bat that can play the corners and PH is number 1 on the list.

Let's revisit the Brandon Inge/Marcus Thames ideas. Both have a lot of RH power and positional flexibility. Tigers need pitching...

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 10:53 AM
I looked up Josh Fogg's opponents' OPS for a good laugh, and I got the good laugh:

.340/.407/.723/1.131

He's just another in a long line already populated by guys such as Jason Bere, Jimmy Anderson, Jimmy Haynes, Joey Hamilton, Joe Mays, Eric Milton, Phil Dumatrait, Dave Williams, Ramon Ortiz, Jeff Austin, Shawn Estes, Brian Moehler, Osvaldo Fernandez, Rob Bell, Brian Reith, and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few others.

Just a pure bad pitcher doing what bad pitchers do. What's more surprising is that people actually expected something different.

You mean a 1.131 OPS against is bad or something? :confused::D

Strikes Out Looking
04-17-2008, 11:01 AM
My guess is that Belisle and Bray come up; Coffey goes down, Fogg is DFA. That happens soon--even though it doesn't have to happen until Monday because it will send a message to the team.

Someone said Fogg couldn't be traded until June 15. My question is who would actually take him? An independent league team?

As for the offense; of course the answer is Bruce, but in the Reds way of thinking there is a 595 homerun hitting hall of famer in his way. Someone in the organization doesn't want him playing cf everyday. Of course, another few days of Corey Patterson may change that.

If it was me, I'd put Bruce in the lineup, let Kepp hit leadoff and live with his lack of speed.

Cyclone792
04-17-2008, 11:05 AM
Mth123's mentioned we can't trade Fogg until sometime in June - it's the 15th. So if he's to go now, he'll just need to be DFA'd (right now, it would cost us about $600K after lopping off a pro-rated amount of the league minimum if a team picks him up). Otherwise to the pen to serve as the mop carrier. I don't think we'll see the club dragging these things out this season.

Fogg has no trade value so there's no sense in waiting until he's able to be traded. He signed with the Reds for a bare bones contract that nobody else was even offering, and there won't be any teams interested in now taking that contract off the Reds' hands.

I see only two viable options with Fogg:

1) DFA him and eat the contract
2) Mopup role as last man out of the bullpen who only pitches in blowouts or long extra inning affairs where he makes an appearance in the 14th inning and loses the ballgame.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 11:05 AM
My guess is that Belisle and Bray come up; Coffey goes down, Fogg is DFA. That happens soon--even though it doesn't have to happen until Monday because it will send a message to the team.

Someone said Fogg couldn't be traded until June 15. My question is who would actually take him? An independent league team?

As for the offense; of course the answer is Bruce, but in the Reds way of thinking there is a 595 homerun hitting hall of famer in his way. Someone in the organization doesn't want him playing cf everyday. Of course, another few days of Corey Patterson may change that.

If it was me, I'd put Bruce in the lineup, let Kepp hit leadoff and live with his lack of speed.


Is Bruce "the answer?"

Benihana
04-17-2008, 11:08 AM
Is Bruce "the answer?"

I have noticed that you have become extremely negative on the Reds over the last couple months. Can I ask you, if you were the GM, what five or six "major" moves you would make- offseason or not?

Roy Tucker
04-17-2008, 11:14 AM
I think the Reds will take small steps.

Coffey is a great guy and tries hard, but I think he needs to get sent down to AAA to work it out and Bray get called up.

I think Bruce is going to be the answer, but won't make an immediate impact. Having said that, I think they should call him up, get him some big league ABs, and get busy looking at the future instead of limping along with the likes of Hopper/Patterson. Hopper/Patterson are tricycles and Bruce is a Harley. Maybe not finely tuned yet, but its there.

They'll probably give Fogg 2 more starts. Watching him throw, I don't think he has the stuff to get MLB hitters out. How he did it at Colorado last year, I don't know. I'd like to see Belisle immediately replace him, but I don't think that will happen. Vets usually are given every chance whereas rookies are usually on a short leash.

Strikes Out Looking
04-17-2008, 11:35 AM
Is Bruce "the answer?"

Of course he is.

Az Red
04-17-2008, 11:35 AM
The Reds need a RH bat off the bench. A few right handed free agent "hitters" to consider:

Preston Wilson (33)
Rondell White (36)
Reggie Sanders (40)
Mike Piazza (39)
Jeff Cirillo (38)
Tony Batista (34)

How about signing Rondell White?

Benihana
04-17-2008, 11:36 AM
The Reds need a RH bat off the bench. A few right handed free agent "hitters" to consider:

Preston Wilson (33)
Rondell White (36)
Reggie Sanders (40)
Mike Piazza (39)
Jeff Cirillo (38)
Tony Batista (34)

How about signing Rondell White?

wow, preston wilson's only 33 after all these years?

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 11:37 AM
I have noticed that you have become extremely negative on the Reds over the last couple months. Can I ask you, if you were the GM, what five or six "major" moves you would make- offseason or not?


Obviously, it's awfully difficult to know who's available. Before you say that's a cop-out, let me give you the rough outlines of how I would *attempt* to fix the team:

1. Move Bailey for offense: I mentioned Matt Kemp some time ago--but the target should be, optimally, a SLG-heavy corner OF/1B bat. Not a bat with GAB power, but a guy with Dunn-ish power. I'm not all that concerned about the right-handedness of said bat. Lefty is fine.


2. Find a defensive catcher. The difficulty of acquiring a catcher has been talked-up *a lot.* But people keep insisting on defense and offense from a catcher. That's an error. Get a good athlete behind the plate. They're out there; if he OPSes .600, I don't care.

3. Find a bullpen coach that can get more mileage out of marginal arms.

4. Find failed rotation arms for the pen.

5. For bench strength, look for talent blocked by current MLB veteran.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 11:38 AM
Of course he is.

But is he right now?

Puffy
04-17-2008, 11:42 AM
310 career PA's in the leadoff spot

.204/.297/.431

Basicly Cory Patterson :thumbup:

What does the word "Basicly" mean? Is that where the Pope is holding mass in D.C. this week?

And you want to be my latex salesmen.....

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2005-10/1094821/george_costanza.jpg

Benihana
04-17-2008, 11:50 AM
Obviously, it's awfully difficult to know who's available. Before you say that's a cop-out, let me give you the rough outlines of how I would *attempt* to fix the team:

1. Move Bailey for offense: I mentioned Matt Kemp some time ago--but the target should be, optimally, a SLG-heavy corner OF/1B bat. Not a bat with GAB power, but a guy with Dunn-ish power. I'm not all that concerned about the right-handedness of said bat. Lefty is fine.


2. Find a defensive catcher. The difficulty of acquiring a catcher has been talked-up *a lot.* But people keep insisting on defense and offense from a catcher. That's an error. Get a good athlete behind the plate. They're out there; if he OPSes .600, I don't care.

3. Find a bullpen coach that can get more mileage out of marginal arms.

4. Find failed rotation arms for the pen.

5. For bench strength, look for talent blocked by current MLB veteran.

That doesn't really sound like any kind of major overhaul to me. From everything I hear, Bako is a great defensive catcher. Maybe we could stand to acquire another bullpen arm- Roenicke is looking pretty good in the minors, but I think having a bullpen anchored by Cordero, Burton, Bray and even Affeldt is pretty good.

Other than that, your "major overhaul" consists of hiring a new bullpen coach and trading Bailey for a slugger? I'm assuming you would then play Bruce in CF? Or do you want to get rid of Joey Votto?

Let's assume for a minute that we do trade Bailey for a slugger. You mentioned Matt Kemp, but I'm curious as to what other realistic slugger options you think are out there? The Dodgers would not move Kemp for Bedard, so you may have a hard time landing him for Homer Bailey, but who knows? Who else would you be targeting?

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 11:55 AM
That doesn't really sound like any kind of major overhaul to me. From everything I hear, Bako is a great defensive catcher. Maybe we could stand to acquire another bullpen arm- Roenicke is looking pretty good in the minors, but I think having a bullpen anchored by Cordero, Burton, Bray and even Affeldt is pretty good.

Other than that, your "major overhaul" consists of hiring a new bullpen coach and trading Bailey for a slugger? I'm assuming you would then play Bruce in CF? Or do you want to get rid of Joey Votto?

Let's assume for a minute that we do trade Bailey for a slugger. You mentioned Matt Kemp, but I'm curious as to what other realistic slugger options you think are out there? The Dodgers would not move Kemp for Bedard, so you may have a hard time landing him for Homer Bailey, but who knows? Who else would you be targeting?

Who are the offensive FA in the offseason?

And Bako's a mediocre catcher.

I'm also more than willing to offer Arroyo at the deadline for offense. But again, it's impossible to know who will be available at the deadline, so right now I have to talk in generalities.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 12:01 PM
I'd move Dunn, too. I realize that it'll be for a minimum return, but I can't control that fact. The front office has put themselves in this bind vis. Dunn.

flyer85
04-17-2008, 12:01 PM
I'd say Reds44 has the lineup just about right. The only thing I would do is to swap EE and Bruce.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 12:05 PM
Who are the offensive FA in the offseason?

And Bako's a mediocre catcher.

Guys that might fit your slugger criteria:

Carlos Delgado
Mark Texeira
Chipper Jones
Moises Alou
Bobby Abreu
Raul Ibanez
Pat Burrell
Vlad Guerrero (team option)
Manny Ramirez (team option)

As for the catchers:

Rod Barajas
Henry Blanco
Johnny Estrada
Toby Hall
Kenji Johjima
Adam Melhuse
Mike Redmond
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Varitek
Vance Wilson
Gregg Zaun
David Ross
Javy Valentin

I suggested Burrell as a potential option in another thread, but that was widely shot down- including even by you. Vlad and Manny are most likely going to be retained by their current teams. Reds have no shot at Texeira and his demands. So where does that leave you? Basically with a bunch of has-beens (Delgado, Abreu, C.Jones, Alou, etc.)

I guess my point in all this is that I don't think the Reds need all the sweeping changes you suggest. More importantly however, I don't even think it's possible- or at least it's a lot harder than you might think.

However I'm still curious as to what your moves would be.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 12:07 PM
I'd move Dunn, too. I realize that it'll be for a minimum return, but I can't control that fact. The front office has put themselves in this bind vis. Dunn.

I don't get that at all.

You say you want to add a Dunn-like slugger to this team, even if he's left-handed. Yet you want to move Dunn for a minimal return? Please enlighten me.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 12:10 PM
Guys that might fit your slugger criteria:

Carlos Delgado
Mark Texeira
Chipper Jones
Moises Alou
Bobby Abreu
Raul Ibanez
Pat Burrell
Vlad Guerrero (team option)
Manny Ramirez (team option)

As for the catchers:

Rod Barajas
Henry Blanco
Johnny Estrada
Toby Hall
Kenji Johjima
Adam Melhuse
Mike Redmond
Ivan Rodriguez
Jason Varitek
Vance Wilson
Gregg Zaun
David Ross
Javy Valentin

I suggested Burrell as a potential option in another thread, but that was widely shot down- including even by you. Vlad and Manny are most likely going to be retained by their current teams. Reds have no shot at Texeira and his demands. So where does that leave you? Basically with a bunch of has-beens (Delgado, Abreu, C.Jones, Alou, etc.)

I guess my point in all this is that I don't think the Reds need all the sweeping changes you suggest. More importantly however, I don't even think it's possible- or at least it's a lot harder than you might think.

However I'm still curious as to what your moves would be.

Burrell's not a bad option. As long as the price tag isn't totally out of control. And I'm afraid you're not going to be able to get specific players out of me (aside from the blocked Kemp), because I have no way of knowing who's available.

My ideas stand--the specifics will work themselves out as other teams express needs, etc.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 12:13 PM
Burrell's not a bad option. As long as the price tag isn't totally out of control. And I'm afraid you're not going to be able to get specific players out of me (aside from the blocked Kemp), because I have no way of knowing who's available.

My ideas stand--the specifics will work themselves out as other teams express needs, etc.

Burrell is likely to get a Carlos Lee type contract if he keeps hitting like he has. Do you care to explain your Dunn logic? And which catcher(s) would you want?

I also think that trading Arroyo at the deadline is a good idea, assuming Cueto and Volquez have stayed healthy and productive, and Bailey still looks promising. I even suggested on another thread offering him and some prospects up to Atlanta for JoJo Reyes and Yunel Escobar, as I believe that's Atlanta was offering for Arroyo at the deadline last year. But unfortunately, in order to get this or any other good return, Arroyo has to return to his 2006-7 form, because he's looked pretty bad so far this season.

And as for your ideas standing but the specifics working themselves out later- if that's going to be your attitude than it is entirely unproductive and a waste of everyone's time to constantly be reminding everyone that there needs to be sweeping changes in April. Unless you have specific suggestions, it doesn't help to generally complain.

Guacarock
04-17-2008, 12:27 PM
I'd consider moving Dunn as well, and using the money to upgrade catcher (say, the Giants' Benjie Molina at his $6 million salary) and 3B (say, free-agent to be Joe Crede at around $7-$8 million).

With the Giants rebuilding, we could probably snag Molina for a package of maybe Gonzalez (to replace their aging Vizquel at SS) and Ross (as their stopgap at C). I would be comfortable playing Keppinger at SS, especially with Crede on board at 3B, as Crede is not only a RH powerhouse at the plate, but also has some decent defensive chops.

Molina and Crede would go a long way toward offsetting the loss of Dunn's bat, and also giving us a stronger attack from the right side so we wouldn't be so vulnerable when we face southpaws.

Who mans LF with Dunn gone? Simple. If he's amenable to it, we re-sign Jr. for a couple of years, and let him patrol LF with Bruce in RF. Or if Jr. balks at that idea, shift Encarnacion to LF, also using him to back up Crede at 3B and Votto at 1B. Makes sense to me, and doesn't tie us for 5-6 years to one player (Dunn) who might or might not continue to hit at his current clip.

jojo
04-17-2008, 12:30 PM
I'd ignore the big name free agents.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 12:38 PM
I'd consider moving Dunn as well, and using the money to upgrade catcher (say, the Giants' Benjie Molina at his $6 million salary) and 3B (say, free-agent to be Joe Crede at around $7-$8 million).

With the Giants rebuilding, we could probably snag Molina for a package of maybe Gonzalez (to replace their aging Vizquel at SS) and Ross (as their stopgap at C). I would be comfortable playing Keppinger at SS, especially with Crede on board at 3B, as Crede is not only a RH powerhouse at the plate, but also has some decent defensive chops.

Molina and Crede would go a long way toward offsetting the loss of Dunn's bat, and also giving us a stronger attack from the right side so we wouldn't be so vulnerable when we face southpaws.

Who mans LF with Dunn gone? Simple. If he's amenable to it, we re-sign Jr. for a couple of years, and let him patrol LF with Bruce in RF. Or if Jr. balks at that idea, shift Encarnacion to LF, also using him to back up Crede at 3B and Votto at 1B. Makes sense to me, and doesn't tie us for 5-6 years to one player (Dunn) who might or might not continue to hit at his current clip.

I'm sorry, but I couldn't disagree with your suggestions more. Replacing Dunn and his money with Joe Crede and Bengie Molina? Are you serious?

Benihana
04-17-2008, 12:38 PM
I'd ignore the big name free agents.

So would I. Except for a left fielder from Texas.

Guacarock
04-17-2008, 01:52 PM
I'm sorry, but I couldn't disagree with your suggestions more. Replacing Dunn and his money with Joe Crede and Bengie Molina? Are you serious?

Serious. Yes I am. And it has nothing to do with being a Dunn basher, as I have always been a big fan of the Big Guy.

But I'm also dead tired of seeing the Reds post losing records year after year. We have made major headway rectifying the team's No. 1 problem -- bad pitching.

But we haven't made as much progress solving two other significant problems -- improving the defense and putting together a cohesive, balanced offense.

Let's talk about defense.

Griffey might not be in his prime, but he would be an upgrade over Dunn in LF, or at least an equal.

Crede would be far superior at 3B than Encarnacion. Crede has never made more than 14 errors in a season, he has gathered as many as 339 assists and has a cumulative career fielding percentage of .967. Encarnacion seems to be slowly improving, but still is rather erratic, prone to throwing errors and mental lapses, with a lifetime fielding percentage of .935 at 3B. He has committed as many as 25 errors and never surpassed 212 assists in a season. In short, he's nowhere close to Crede's league as a defender.

The defense argument doesn't hold as well for Molina -- who lacks Ross' rifle of an arm, and allows a few more passed balls. But Molina does well with game-calling and could presumably help guide the young Spanish-speaking pitching phenoms, so he wouldn't necessarily be a significant downgrade.

Now, onto offense.

Molina shines here -- and especially against southpaws, which has been the Reds' Achilles heel for years running. Over the past three seasons, Molina has posted a .340 batting average, .369 OBP, and .566 slg against lefties, with 23 homers in 403 at bats. Think of someone with Ross' power, but with a much higher likelihood of getting on base or connecting for RBI.

Crede's attack is a little more balanced -- he does about as well against RH pitchers as lefties. He is a model of consistency, much more so than Encarnacion, who has been prone toward big swings on offense, and in particular, prolonged slumps early each season. If you ask me, huge question marks surround players who slump heading out of the gate. Teams that lose in April-May start getting behind the eight ball psychologically. And if a player is always slow to start, maybe he isn't too serious about his off-season conditioning. Maybe he's the kind of slouch you don't want to build around.

Finally, when I talk about balance, I mean that: An offense that percolates up and down the order. I would much rather have a team of 8 position players, each at or slightly above average; than a team led by 1 or 2 superstars, where everyone else is average or below average.

Give me Phillips, Crede and Molina from the right hand side, and Griffey, Votto and Bruce from the left hand side, throw in Keppinger to set the table, and add a defensive-oriented CF hitting 8th (say Brian Anderson) and you've got yourself a team with some drive potential.

At least, the dynamics would be different from a team where you have a Griffey, a Dunn and a Phillips, and then no one else pulling much of a load. We've seen the outcome of that and it isn't pretty. Time for a new formula and hopefully a winning direction.

WVRedsFan
04-17-2008, 02:01 PM
Obviously, it's awfully difficult to know who's available. Before you say that's a cop-out, let me give you the rough outlines of how I would *attempt* to fix the team:

1. Move Bailey for offense: I mentioned Matt Kemp some time ago--but the target should be, optimally, a SLG-heavy corner OF/1B bat. Not a bat with GAB power, but a guy with Dunn-ish power. I'm not all that concerned about the right-handedness of said bat. Lefty is fine.


2. Find a defensive catcher. The difficulty of acquiring a catcher has been talked-up *a lot.* But people keep insisting on defense and offense from a catcher. That's an error. Get a good athlete behind the plate. They're out there; if he OPSes .600, I don't care.

3. Find a bullpen coach that can get more mileage out of marginal arms.

4. Find failed rotation arms for the pen.

5. For bench strength, look for talent blocked by current MLB veteran.

FCB, I find these pretty much "this year" moves and that's probably what you intended.

I totally agree with No. 1. Homer may be great, but it appears he keeps getting pushed back and it's probably for a reason. Get that big bat.

No. 2 is urgent. Our catchers are simply below major league minimum in talent. Ross is not all that--he's an interstate hitting marginal fielding catcher who just happens to be the best we have. Valentin is simply not suited for MLB (except a san occasional pinch hitter) and our present starter is not that great. Get a catcher and let hitting, if any, be a bonus.

No. 3 -- not sure if anyone can get anymore out of not much :). That person might have to be Houdini.

No. 4 is a good idea. so much so that I imagine Josh Fogg will soon be in the pen. Same with No. 5. But getting teams to give up their future or insurance at a position is tough.

I'd also move some personnel around. I see no reason for Castro--a AAA guy could suffice. Coffey the same. Hatteberg needs to be moved. Belisle needs to be up as does
Bray.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 02:39 PM
I'd leave Bruce and Bailey out of any moves for now, maybe June/July for them.

I agree completely.

Bruce should come up first, around your suggested time frame.

Bailey could possibly come up in September, but I don't think that move is an absolute must. Depends how he pitches this year.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 04:38 PM
Let's revisit the Brandon Inge/Marcus Thames ideas. Both have a lot of RH power and positional flexibility. Tigers need pitching...

What pitching do we have to spare to send to the Tigers?

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 04:41 PM
Of course he is.

To what question is Jay Bruce the answer?

I'm sure Jay Bruce is the answer to many question, but specifically concerning the Reds, to what is he the answer?

Who is the Reds' top prospect? Jay Bruce

Who will most likely play RF everyday for the Reds in 2009? Jay Bruce



If the question is "who should leadoff for the Reds?", I'm not sold that Jay Bruce is the answer.

If the question is "who will save the Reds in 2008?", I feel very strongly that the answer is not Jay Bruce. We're more than Jay Bruce away for 2008.

Chip R
04-17-2008, 04:53 PM
If the question is "who should leadoff for the Reds?", I'm not sold that Jay Bruce is the answer.



Neither am I but if not Bruce, then who? I believe that leadoff hitter we're looking for either isn't in this organization or isn't ready to be a MLB player.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 05:16 PM
What pitching do we have to spare to send to the Tigers?

McBeth?

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:28 PM
Neither am I but if not Bruce, then who? I believe that leadoff hitter we're looking for either isn't in this organization or isn't ready to be a MLB player.

I don't think we have any true leadoff hitters that are everyday players in our entire organization. We have a couple guys that can spot/emergency start and leadoff, but that's it.

We need to go obtain a true leadoff hitter. I don't think it's a top priority, but it should definitely be on a list of things to do.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:29 PM
McBeth?

Our bullpen is still horrid. McBeth won't completely solve that problem, but he'd be a step in the right direction.

In the big picture, McBeth certainly has more upside than a roster-clogger like Weathers.

reds44
04-17-2008, 05:30 PM
I don't think we have any true leadoff hitters that are everyday players in our entire organization. We have a couple guys that can spot/emergency start and leadoff, but that's it.

We need to go obtain a true leadoff hitter. I don't think it's a top priority, but it should definitely be on a list of things to do.
Any idea who the free agent centerfielders are this offseason (yes, I realize it's only April). You figure Griffey won't be back, so Bruce goes to RF meaning you still need a CFer.

Kc61
04-17-2008, 05:31 PM
Our bullpen is still horrid. McBeth won't completely solve that problem, but he'd be a step in the right direction.

In the big picture, McBeth certainly has more upside than a roster-clogger like Weathers.

Why?

Based on what?

jojo
04-17-2008, 05:34 PM
Neither am I but if not Bruce, then who? I believe that leadoff hitter we're looking for either isn't in this organization or isn't ready to be a MLB player.

I vote for the guy with the highest ceiling. Patterson has been nifty with the leather and he's been lucky with his SLG so far but over the course of a full season, it's easy to see Bruce being the equivalent of Hunter Pence ala '07. Patterson's upside is to simply be roughly an average center fielder.

Might as well go for the gusto....

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:35 PM
Any idea who the free agent centerfielders are this offseason (yes, I realize it's only April). You figure Griffey won't be back, so Bruce goes to RF meaning you still need a CFer.

Defensively, we won't find any better than Corey Patterson.

Offensively, we can definitely find better.

I'd try to find a RH OF (that can play all 3), and we'd probably find ourselves in a platoon situation in CF, and then that guy could also give Bruce and Dunn days off.

That would make both Freel and Hopper very expendible, if they already aren't right now.

RedEye
04-17-2008, 05:36 PM
Our bullpen is still horrid. McBeth won't completely solve that problem, but he'd be a step in the right direction.

In the big picture, McBeth certainly has more upside than a roster-clogger like Weathers.

I agree that McBeth has more upside, but I still think Weathers is an effective pitcher. Let's wait to see a more significant sample before we call him a "roster-clogger," shall we? He can still be a significant part of this bullpen in 2008.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:37 PM
Why?

Based on what?

Age?

Value to the Reds in the future?

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:38 PM
I agree that McBeth has more upside, but I still think Weathers is an effective pitcher. Let's wait to see a more significant sample before we call him a "roster-clogger," shall we? He can still be a significant part of this bullpen in 2008.

I can't imagine Weathers is here for 2009 or beyond.

I'd rather us start auditioning the kids in the organization to replace Weathers.

In that respect, Weathers is a roster-clogger, IMO.

Kc61
04-17-2008, 05:45 PM
I can't imagine Weathers is here for 2009 or beyond.

I'd rather us start auditioning the kids in the organization to replace Weathers.

In that respect, Weathers is a roster-clogger, IMO.

Every young pitcher doesn't warrant a major league spot. Every veteran pitcher doesn't deserve to be let go.

McBeth has been an extreme fly ball pitcher who had almost a 6 ERA with the Reds last year. If they think he can pitch in the major leagues, I'm sure they will give him his shot. As a former outfielder, he is obviously still refining things in the minor leagues.

If the Reds want to turn this into a tryout camp in August or so, ok. But at this point I'd like to see them try to win a few games.

reds44
04-17-2008, 05:47 PM
McBeth ran into a lot of bad luck last year, IIRC.

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 05:50 PM
The bullpen isn't great, but it is in better shape than the bench. You seriously would not do McBeth for Marcus Thames? BTW--Thames can play 1B...

Falls City Beer
04-17-2008, 05:51 PM
The bullpen isn't great, but it is in better shape than the bench. You seriously would not do McBeth for Marcus Thames? BTW--Thames can play 1B...

I would trade McBeth for Thames quicker than you can say "Thane of Cawdor."

Kc61
04-17-2008, 05:51 PM
McBeth ran into a lot of bad luck last year, IIRC.


For a few outings in the beginning. But the Reds saw him all spring and know what he has. Frankly, I think you'll see Bray and then Roenicke in the major leagues before McBeth, but who knows.

The point is that the team is 7-9 and people want to turn it into extended spring training already. The objective is to win. If fans want to watch players develop, they should get the minor league tv feed.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:53 PM
Every young pitcher doesn't warrant a major league spot. Every veteran pitcher doesn't deserve to be let go.

McBeth has been an extreme fly ball pitcher who had almost a 6 ERA with the Reds last year. If they think he can pitch in the major leagues, I'm sure they will give him his shot. As a former outfielder, he is obviously still refining things in the minor leagues.

If the Reds want to turn this into a tryout camp in August or so, ok. But at this point I'd like to see them try to win a few games.

I'm not saying let Weathers go.

I'm saying bring in a piece of the puzzle that will be with the Reds for 2009 and going forward. Get a prospect for Weathers.

I think the Reds need to take stock of this team and do some soul-searching, and come to the unfortunate realization that they aren't anything better than a .500 team. And that's ok. 2008 is a transition year, and should be treated as such accordingly. Let The Dusty evaluate talent throughout the organization in 2008 so we hopefully have a clue for 2009.

I want us to win ridiculously badly, but with this team I just don't have high hopes. And it hurts to admit that. I want to be wrong, and I hope I am, but over the off-season we didn't make the correlating moves that needed to happen with signing The Dusty and signing Coco Cordero.

WMR
04-17-2008, 05:53 PM
Any idea who the free agent centerfielders are this offseason (yes, I realize it's only April). You figure Griffey won't be back, so Bruce goes to RF meaning you still need a CFer.

The answer is Stubbs. :cool:

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 05:53 PM
if the Tigs won't give up Thames, than perhaps we can take Inge's contract off their hands, and send Valentin back to help make up the difference in contracts?

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:55 PM
The bullpen isn't great, but it is in better shape than the bench. You seriously would not do McBeth for Marcus Thames? BTW--Thames can play 1B...

I would easily make that trade, but the Tigers wouldn't. I'd love to get Thames for McBeth, but your original post suggested we had pitching to offer the Tigers, and if McBeth is the only name you have, then I foresee the Tigers saying "pass".

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:56 PM
The answer is Stubbs. :cool:

If the answer is Stubbs, then what's the question?

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 05:57 PM
I would easily make that trade, but the Tigers wouldn't. I'd love to get Thames for McBeth, but your original post suggested we had pitching to offer the Tigers, and if McBeth is the only name you have, then I foresee the Tigers saying "pass".

Depending on how the continuing developement of Bailey and Thompson goes, I would also consider sending them Matt Maloney.

OTOH, we could just come to a comprimise and send them David Weathers! :cool:

RedsManRick
04-17-2008, 05:58 PM
If the answer is Stubbs, then what's the question?

Name the player in the Reds organization who reminds you the most of Chris Dickerson?

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 05:58 PM
Depending on how the continuing developement of Bailey and Thompson goes, I would also consider sending them Matt Maloney.

OTOH, we could just come to a comprimise and send them David Weathers! :cool:

Maloney's definitely a trading chip.

Weathers and Arroyo should be at the top of our list of trading chips, however.

reds44
04-17-2008, 06:00 PM
Name the player in the Reds organization who reminds you the most of Chris Dickerson?
He is starting to finally rid himself of that comparison.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 06:00 PM
Name the player in the Reds organization who reminds you the most of Chris Dickerson?

That's a great question having the answer of "Drew Stubbs".

I was also thinking "Name Wayne Krivsky's worst 1st round draft pick during his tenure with the Reds?"

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 06:01 PM
Why must we go out of the way to bash a Reds prospect?

*BaseClogger*
04-17-2008, 06:02 PM
Haha my turn: Who did the Reds draft instead of Tim Lincecum?

WMR
04-17-2008, 06:02 PM
If the answer is Stubbs, then what's the question?

Take your pick. Any question can be answered with that one word.

WMR
04-17-2008, 06:03 PM
That's a great question having the answer of "Drew Stubbs".

I was also thinking "Name Wayne Krivsky's worst 1st round draft pick during his tenure with the Reds?"

Stubbs will be pwning you very shortly and he will be expecting a letter of apology from the HLman household.

BRM
04-17-2008, 06:05 PM
You can't say "Stubbs" around here without a few posts bashing him.

By the way, WMR is the one who brought his name into the thread. ;)

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2008, 06:07 PM
By the way, WMR is the one who brought his name into the thread. ;)

Yep. I say we rough him up in the next chat.

WMR
04-17-2008, 06:08 PM
Yep. I say we rough him up in the next chat.

:lol:

Not now that I've got my Ninja avatar. Ninja's rule.

BRM
04-17-2008, 06:08 PM
Yep. I say we rough him up in the next chat.

Alrighty then!! :cool:

BRM
04-17-2008, 06:09 PM
:lol:

Not now that I've got my Ninja avatar. Ninja's rule.

You're ninja is weak and easily defeated. He's the Josh Fogg of ninja's.

Chip R
04-17-2008, 06:13 PM
I vote for the guy with the highest ceiling. Patterson has been nifty with the leather and he's been lucky with his SLG so far but over the course of a full season, it's easy to see Bruce being the equivalent of Hunter Pence ala '07. Patterson's upside is to simply be roughly an average center fielder.

Might as well go for the gusto....


If Patterson has a decent season at the plate he's going to cost at least twice of what we're paying him now. He might hit 20 HRs. I don't think he's going to want to come back at $3M. He may want a long term deal as well. I don't think I'd be willing to have him here for 3-4 more years if he's going to cost $6-8M a year.

You have to figure that Bruce is going to occupy one of the OF spots. It's doubtful Jr. will be back and it's 50/50 that Dunn is going to be back. So we may have to fill 2 OF spots. The right side of the IF is probably going to stay intact - minus Hatteberg - and neither one will be a leadoff hitter in Dustyland. Gonzalez has another year left on his deal but it's possible he could be moved to open up a spot for Keppinger who could hit leadoff but won't for Dusty unless he learns how to play CF. ;) EE could also be moved but if he stays he won't hit leadoff and if he does go, it's unlikely his replacement will hit leadoff unless it's Freel. Whomever the catcher(s) is/are won't hit leadoff. So it's likely it will be an OFer.

Highlifeman21
04-17-2008, 06:18 PM
Why must we go out of the way to bash a Reds prospect?

I'm not bashing Stubbs.

I'm trying to look at who's going to make major, positive contributions for the Reds between 2009 and 2011, and I don't see Drew Stubbs being part of that equation. That is unless he's traded and the return we get for him makes a major, positive contribution between 2009 and 2011. That's the only way I see Stubbs helping the friends.

Benihana
04-17-2008, 06:32 PM
This thread has deteriorated.

PuffyPig
04-17-2008, 11:42 PM
Move Bailey for offense: I mentioned Matt Kemp some time ago--but the target should be, optimally, a SLG-heavy corner OF/1B bat. Not a bat with GAB power, but a guy with Dunn-ish power. I'm not all that concerned about the right-handedness of said bat. Lefty is fine.




Sorry, you moved him last year for Jennings.

PuffyPig
04-17-2008, 11:48 PM
Crede's attack is a little more balanced -- he does about as well against RH pitchers as lefties. He is a model of consistency, much more so than Encarnacion, who has been prone toward big swings on offense, and in particular, prolonged slumps early each season. If you ask me, huge question marks surround players who slump heading out of the gate.

I give you that Crede is a model of consistency.

Consistently bad.

He's got a .754 lifetime OPS. EE is a better hitter right now,and has 10 times more potential.


Why give up some value to get a player that makes us worse,and is a FA after this season?

Guacarock
04-18-2008, 06:01 AM
I give you that Crede is a model of consistency.

Consistently bad.

He's got a .754 lifetime OPS. EE is a better hitter right now,and has 10 times more potential.


Why give up some value to get a player that makes us worse,and is a FA after this season?

I never advocated that we trade Encarnacion for Crede, but only suggested that we acquire Crede to play 3B. Could be a case of waiting until the off-season to sign Crede as a free agent and keeping Encarnacion around to man 1B, with Votto replacing Dunn in LF. Or perhaps Dunn or Junior mans LF, freeing us to trade EE or Votto for another one of the puzzle pieces we need (like a plus catcher).

I'm not stuck on any one particular configuration for the team. But having greatly improved the rotation and at least stabilized the bullpen, we now need to focus on shoring up our defense and also making our offense more balanced.

Crede would represent a clearcut defensive upgrade at 3B, perhaps enough so to allow us to play Keppinger regularly at SS. As far as offense goes, who knows whether Crede or EE will be more productive in 2008 or moving forward? However, Crede is hardly the dud at the plate that you portray. He wouldn't be leading the American League with 18 RBI if that was the case, nor would he have amassed his .829 OPS with 30 HR and 94 RBI in 2006 (before his injury laid him low last year).

PuffyPig
04-18-2008, 08:40 AM
I never advocated that we trade Encarnacion for Crede, but only suggested that we acquire Crede to play 3B. Could be a case of waiting until the off-season to sign Crede as a free agent and keeping Encarnacion around to man 1B, with Votto replacing Dunn in LF. Or perhaps Dunn or Junior mans LF, freeing us to trade EE or Votto for another one of the puzzle pieces we need (like a plus catcher).

I'm not stuck on any one particular configuration for the team. But having greatly improved the rotation and at least stabilized the bullpen, we now need to focus on shoring up our defense and also making our offense more balanced.

Crede would represent a clearcut defensive upgrade at 3B, perhaps enough so to allow us to play Keppinger regularly at SS. As far as offense goes, who knows whether Crede or EE will be more productive in 2008 or moving forward? However, Crede is hardly the dud at the plate that you portray. He wouldn't be leading the American League with 18 RBI if that was the case, nor would he have amassed his .829 OPS with 30 HR and 94 RBI in 2006 (before his injury laid him low last year).

Firstly, I never said anyone suggested trading EE for Crede.

I just said that EE is better than Crede. And likley toget much better.

FWIW, EE had a better OPS than Crede during Crede's career year in 2006, .831 to .828.

Falls City Beer
04-18-2008, 09:00 AM
I give you that Crede is a model of consistency.

Consistently bad.

He's got a .754 lifetime OPS. EE is a better hitter right now,and has 10 times more potential.


Why give up some value to get a player that makes us worse,and is a FA after this season?

EdE's a better hitter, but for someone who is not prone to hyperbole, you certainly are gilding the lily in saying that EdE has 10 times more potential than Crede. I'm guessing EdE's at an age where he's going to plateau offensively, and he's likely, unfortunately, as good as he's going to be defensively, which is pretty bad.

I'd probably prefer EdE to Crede based upon price tag and age (health), but I'm not at all excited about the future of EdE's game.

PuffyPig
04-18-2008, 12:06 PM
EdE's a better hitter, but for someone who is not prone to hyperbole, you certainly are gilding the lily in saying that EdE has 10 times more potential than Crede. I'm guessing EdE's at an age where he's going to plateau offensively, and he's likely, unfortunately, as good as he's going to be defensively, which is pretty bad.

I'd probably prefer EdE to Crede based upon price tag and age (health), but I'm not at all excited about the future of EdE's game.

Well, Crede has plateaued, so has basically zero potential. Ten times that is not all that much.

EE is better and cheaper and has some potential to improve. Crede would cost us something, including more dollars.

You don't have to be excited about EE's game to see that he is a better bet than Crede, even if you gave him little room to improve on that game.

Benihana
04-18-2008, 12:16 PM
EdE's a better hitter, but for someone who is not prone to hyperbole, you certainly are gilding the lily in saying that EdE has 10 times more potential than Crede. I'm guessing EdE's at an age where he's going to plateau offensively, and he's likely, unfortunately, as good as he's going to be defensively, which is pretty bad.

I'd probably prefer EdE to Crede based upon price tag and age (health), but I'm not at all excited about the future of EdE's game.

You're also the same guy that said last night that Volquez is "very likely to be out of the rotation by mid-May", despite proclaiming it a great trade when the Reds acquired him. Additionally, you have said that sweeping changes need to be made to the lineup- revolving around acquiring a Dunn-esque slugger, but that the Reds should let Dunn go or trade him for a minimal return and "you can't suggest anything else specifically" other than maybe a new bullpen coach. You've also said that you wouldn't mind going after Pat Burrell as a FA this offseason but in another thread that you also probably wouldn't like to sign him.

I mean this with all due respect FCB, but your posting quality has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks.

As for the Crede debate, I think it is completely without merit. Not only is the Reds starting 3B younger, cheaper, and much more talented than Crede, but the Reds "backup 3B" is younger, cheaper, and much better as well.

Falls City Beer
04-18-2008, 12:19 PM
You're also the same guy that said last night that Volquez is "very likely to be out of the rotation by mid-May", despite proclaiming it a great trade when the Reds acquired him. Additionally, you have said that sweeping changes need to be made to the lineup- revolving around acquiring a Dunn-esque slugger, but that the Reds should let Dunn go or trade him for a minimal return and "you can't suggest anything else specifically" other than maybe a new bullpen coach. You've also said that you wouldn't mind going after Pat Burrell as a FA this offseason but in another thread that you also probably wouldn't like to sign him.

I mean this with all due respect FCB, but your posting quality has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks.

As for the Crede debate, I think it is completely without merit. Not only do is the Reds starting 3B younger, cheaper, and much better than Crede, but the Reds "backup 3B" is younger, cheaper, and much better as well.


You'd fail a class requiring you to summarize other's positions. ;)

(Why do people say "with all due respect" when they mean, in fact, the very opposite?)

*BaseClogger*
04-18-2008, 12:23 PM
(Why do people say "with all due respect" when they mean, in fact, the very opposite?)

http://images.dawgsports.com/images/admin/Ricky_Bobby_closeup.jpg

Falls City Beer
04-18-2008, 12:26 PM
You don't have to be excited about EE's game to see that he is a better bet than Crede, even if you gave him little room to improve on that game.


I don't know; if Crede could provide the Reds an .850 OPS and shore up 3rd base defense for two years, I'd gladly surrender EdE's future.

Still, it's not going to happen, so it doesn't matter.

BRM
04-18-2008, 12:28 PM
I don't know; if Crede could provide the Reds an .850 OPS and shore up 3rd base defense for two years, I'd gladly surrender EdE's future.

Still, it's not going to happen, so it doesn't matter.

Crede has rarely been an .850 OPS bat throughout his career. You are more likely to get a .750 OPS out of him IMO.

RedsManRick
04-18-2008, 12:30 PM
I don't know; if Crede could provide the Reds an .850 OPS and shore up 3rd base defense for two years, I'd gladly surrender EdE's future.

Still, it's not going to happen, so it doesn't matter.

Crede has a career .756 OPS and has OPS'd over .800 once in a full season. He's on the wrong side of 30. He has a long history of back problems. What makes you think he'd give us an .850 OPS? I can appreciate the defensive improvement, but EE simply projects to be the more productive bat over the next any number of years. Any defensive upgrade would merely offset that. It's treading water at the cost of both money and talent. Expecting anything more is plain old grass-is-greener-ism.

Falls City Beer
04-18-2008, 12:32 PM
Crede has rarely been an .850 OPS bat throughout his career. You are more likely to get a .750 OPS out of him IMO.

Yeah, it's a gamble. But power develops late. And he'd be coming from a division with the second best pitching in baseball to the division with the worst or second worst.

As I said, I wouldn't do it because of the likelihood of too many things going wrong for Crede (age, money, etc), but it's not NEARLY as ridiculous a suggestion as some are making it out to be, IMO.