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Redman15
04-17-2008, 07:15 PM
Oops

Edd Roush
04-17-2008, 07:19 PM
Thanks for the research Redman. As I have stated before, if you are in the Dayton area and have the opportunity to see Todd Frazier bat, it is quite a treat. He is going to be one good ballplayer.

Redman15
04-17-2008, 07:29 PM
Ranks Level Name Avg (min 30 AB's) Ranks Level Name HR
1 AAA Hairston JR .429 T1 A- Waring 5
2 A- Jones .412 T1 A- Frazier 5
3 AA Szymanski .386 T2 AAA Bruce 3
4 A+ Turner .375 T2 A+ Valaika 3
5 A- Waring .373 T2 A+ Francisco 3


Ranks Level Name Hits Ranks Level Name OBP
1 A+ Valaika 20 1 A- Jones .487
2 A+ Francisco 19 2 AAA Hairston JR .467
3 A- Waring 19 3 A- Frazier .464
4 AAA Bruce 18 T4 AA Gutierrez .429
5 AAA Hairston JR 18 T4 A+ Stubbs .424


Ranks Level Name Runs Ranks Level Name SLG
1 A- Fraizer 16 1 AAA Hairston JR .786
2 A- Waring 14 2 A- Frazier .778
3 A+ Stubbs 12 3 AA Szymanski .705
4 AA Bolivar 11 4 A- Waring .686
T5 A+ Heisey 10 5 A- Jones .647
T5 A- Jones 10


Ranks Level Name RBI's Ranks Level Name OPS
1 A- Waring 15 1 AAA Hairston JR 1.252
2 A+ Valaika 13 2 A- Frazier 1.242
3 AA Szymanski 13 3 A- Jones 1.134
4 A- Phipps 12 4 AA Szymanski 1.130
5 A+ Francisco 11 5 A- Waring 1.067


Ranks Level Name BB Ranks Level Name K's
1 A- Frazier 11 1 A- Reed 18
2 AA Gutierrez 10 2 A- Waring 17
3 A+ Stubbs 8 T3 AA Szymanski 16
4 A- Bolivar 7 T3 A+ Stubbs 16
5 AA Tatum 6 5 A- Menchaca 15

Redman15
04-28-2008, 03:10 PM
Ranks Level Name Avg (min 60 AB's) Ranks Level Name HR
1 A+ Turner .395 1 A- Frazier 6
2 A- Jones .377 T2 A- Waring 5
3 A+ Valaika .359 T2 AAA Bruce 5
4 A+ Stubbs .333 T2 AA Szymanski 5
5 AAA Bruce .326 T5 A+ Francisco 4
T5 A+ Valaika 4

Ranks Level Name Hits Ranks Level Name OBP
1 A+ Valaika 37 1 A+ Turner .449
2 A+ Turner 32 2 A- Jones .441
T3 A+ Stubbs 29 3 AA Cumberland .424
T3 AAA Bruce 29 4 A+ Stubbs .416
5 A+ Francisco 28 5 A- Frazier .415


Ranks Level Name Runs Ranks Level Name SLG
1 A- Fraizer 20 1 A- Jones .639
2 A+ Stubbs 18 2 A- Frazier .638
T3 A+ Heisey 17 3 AAA Bruce .573
T4 A- Jones 17 4 A+ Valaika .544
T5 A- Waring 16 5 A- Waring .526
T5 AA Cumberland 16


Ranks Level Name RBI's Ranks Level Name OPS
1 A+ Valaika 25 1 A- Jones 1.081
2 A+ Francisco 20 2 A- Frazier 1.052
3 A- Phipps 18 3 A+ Turner .956
T4 A- Fraizer 17 4 AA Cumberland .952
T4 AAA Bruce 17 5 AAA Bruce .924


Ranks Level Name BB Ranks Level Name K's
T1 A- Frazier 14 1 A- Waring 30
T2 AA Gutierrez 14 2 AA Szymanski 27
T3 A+ Stubbs 11 T3 A Reed 26
T3 AA Cumberland 11 T3 A+ Stubbs 26
T3 AA Anderson 11 5 A+ Francisco 25

kaldaniels
04-28-2008, 03:43 PM
Ranks Level Name Avg (min 60 AB's) Ranks Level Name HR
1 A+ Turner .395 1 A- Frazier 6
2 A- Jones .377 T2 A- Waring 5
3 A+ Valaika .359 T2 AAA Bruce 5
4 A+ Stubbs .333 T2 AA Szymanski 5
5 AAA Bruce .326 T5 A+ Francisco 4
T5 A+ Valaika 4

Ranks Level Name Hits Ranks Level Name OBP
1 A+ Valaika 37 1 A+ Turner .449
2 A+ Turner 32 2 A- Jones .441
T3 A+ Stubbs 29 3 AA Cumberland .424
T3 AAA Bruce 29 4 A+ Stubbs .416
5 A+ Francisco 28 5 A- Frazier .415


Ranks Level Name Runs Ranks Level Name SLG
1 A- Fraizer 20 1 A- Jones .639
2 A+ Stubbs 18 2 A- Frazier .638
T3 A+ Heisey 17 3 AAA Bruce .573
T4 A- Jones 17 4 A+ Valaika .544
T5 A- Waring 16 5 A- Waring .526
T5 AA Cumberland 16


Ranks Level Name RBI's Ranks Level Name OPS
1 A+ Valaika 25 1 A- Jones 1.081
2 A+ Francisco 20 2 A- Frazier 1.052
3 A- Phipps 18 3 A+ Turner .956
T4 A- Fraizer 17 4 AA Cumberland .952
T4 AAA Bruce 17 5 AAA Bruce .924


Ranks Level Name BB Ranks Level Name K's
T1 A- Frazier 14 1 A- Waring 30
T2 AA Gutierrez 14 2 AA Szymanski 27
T3 A+ Stubbs 11 T3 A Reed 26
T3 AA Cumberland 11 T3 A+ Stubbs 26
T3 AA Anderson 11 5 A+ Francisco 25


Great to see "Stubbs" pop up on that list several times.

RedsBuck36
04-29-2008, 09:38 AM
Shouldnt be much longer til Waring and Frazier move up to A+. Those boys are lighting it up.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 12:26 PM
I would say the impressiveness of Stubbs showing up on the charts is somewhat overvalued. The part moreso impressive is has yet to show up in the Homerun category. The way i see it one of the various reasons he struggled so much from the get-go was the fact he was drafted as a future '5' tool guy. The thing is his power was only consistent when he approached the plate as a power hitter, which in turn drastically affected his K rate, lower his walks as he swung at everything, and killed his average. Having been in the minors long enough i think he's either grown more careless as the the reds expectations of him and grown into his own player, or the reds in fact have lowered there expectations on him easing of some of his pressure to achieve that 30/30 player type status. Im sure i drastically overexlained a quite simple explanation but im really thinking of thim as that Corey Patterson type player. not even close. but regardless lets just hope he keeps it up.

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 01:54 PM
I would say the impressiveness of Stubbs showing up on the charts is somewhat overvalued. The part moreso impressive is has yet to show up in the Homerun category. The way i see it one of the various reasons he struggled so much from the get-go was the fact he was drafted as a future '5' tool guy. The thing is his power was only consistent when he approached the plate as a power hitter, which in turn drastically affected his K rate, lower his walks as he swung at everything, and killed his average. Having been in the minors long enough i think he's either grown more careless as the the reds expectations of him and grown into his own player, or the reds in fact have lowered there expectations on him easing of some of his pressure to achieve that 30/30 player type status. Im sure i drastically overexlained a quite simple explanation but im really thinking of thim as that Corey Patterson type player. not even close. but regardless lets just hope he keeps it up.

Actually Stubbs hit a HR last night. As for Stubbs lowering his walk rate by swinging for the fences.... he has one of the better walk rates in the system, so I don't think thats it at all. Brandon Waring, sure.... Drew Stubbs, not at all. I don't think the Reds ever expected him to be a 30/30 type guy. 20/30 type guy, yeah probably but never 30/30. As for him showing up being overvalued by showing up on the list.... I find it hard to believe any great defensive centerfielder that is hitting .348/.425/.543 with 13 steals in 13 attempts is in any way overvalued.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 06:34 PM
where should i begin. first off starting in 2006 up to 2008 minor league seasons stubbs K/BB ratio was 2:1, 2.1:1, and 2.5:1. basically his strikeout rate has been on the rise the past three seasons while his walks have dropped, not at any drastic rate; but they've dropped. in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts. now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's. basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 06:55 PM
where should i begin. first off starting in 2006 up to 2008 minor league seasons stubbs K/BB ratio was 2:1, 2.1:1, and 2.5:1. basically his strikeout rate has been on the rise the past three seasons while his walks have dropped, not at any drastic rate; but they've dropped.
In 2006 Stubbs strikeout % was 25.4, in 2007 it was 24.7 and this year its 25.5. His strikeout rate is essentially the exact same at the three levels he has played at. His walk rate over the same time has been 12.7%, 12% and 10.4%. His wak rate has slowed down just ever so slightly.



in 2006 stubbs averaged 1 HR every 35 AB in '07 1HR every 41.5 AB and in '08 1HR every 92 AB's. so while his homerun rate has significantly dropped his strikeouts have risen and his walks dropped. this isnt anything made up. its facts. you cant rebuke the facts.
Yeah, and if he hits a HR tonight his HR rate in 2008 goes to roughly 1 per 48 AB's. Its way to early to be making HR per AB rates. Lets also take into account the leagues. So while I "can't rebuke facts" I will argue that they certainly aren't enough data available to make much of it. On the flip side, his XBH rate has gone up every year. He had an XBH% of 30.1%, 34.3% and 40.6% at each stop.



now i completely agree with you that waring is far worse in that aspect as his K/BB rate was 4/1 in '07 and 6.1/1 in '08. but you could go off on a rather large list of players with a considerably better walk rate in the reds system than stubbs. for instance take a look at chris heisey. not only has his career .982 FP% beat stubbs .981 FP% while both have played in the exact same amount of games, but his stolen base percentage is 78% also beating stubbs rate of 74%. both players are very similar in regards to there minor league stats aside from heisey walking just as much as he K's.
Well aside from the fact that fielding % if a horrible stat that tells me next to nothing about a players actual defensive ability. As for stolen base %, do I need to remind you that Stubbs was playing with turf toe last year and hamstring issues in 2006? Dudes healthy this year and we are seeing it on the basepaths as he is 13 for 13 early on and on pace for 65-70 steals this year.



basically the only reason i say that stubbs is overvalued is because he truly is. heisey has just as much power. K's less, steals more bases, boasts just as good defense, just wasnt picked in the first round as stubbs was. that is just one of the various reasons stubbs is overvalued. really come on, must i continue?

Except thats not close to true. Heisey doesn't have as much power. His isolated power numbers last year in Dayton were lower than Stubbs and his isolated power numbers this year in Sarasota are much lower than Stubbs. He does strikeout less. He may have better SB success in the past when Stubbs was hurt, but he isn't the stolen base threat that a healthy Drew Stubbs is. Heisey is 3 for 4 this year. Stubbs is 13 for 13 and has the most steals in the minors without being caught. Its not really close. As for the defense, Stubbs is in a different class than Heisey is out in CF.

Feel free to continue if you want, but the only thing you were right on was that Heisey strikes out less.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 08:54 PM
on the contrary your just a sophistical arguer. going on about some facts or statistics completely inane to my original points doesnt make you any smarter. ive proven my point so theres nothing else to say. 9,526 posts dont make you any more perspicacious to the reds than myself.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 09:09 PM
i dont know why you can just 'assume' drew stubbs could hit a homer tonight. took him long enough to get his first one. id say 92 ABs gives a pretty good idea of there performance for that season. but you argued me wrong. so okay it doesnt. but that further proves what i believe in his .348 average an 13-13SB all being flaws. your right it'll even itself out soon enough.

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 09:13 PM
on the contrary your just a sophistical arguer. going on about some facts or statistics completely inane to my original points doesnt make you any smarter. ive proven my point so theres nothing else to say. 9,526 posts dont make you any more perspicacious to the reds than myself.

I strayed from the point of your post? You said Stubbs was overvalued then tried to use Chris Heisey as a similar player to Stubbs to validate your point. I argued that the two aren't really close to being similar players and backed it up with some stats to prove my point.

Now if you want to continue to say that Stubbs is overvalued, feel free to do so. However you need to show what his value is, then show why its not accurate. At least to me, you haven't done that at all.

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 09:15 PM
i dont know why you can just 'assume' drew stubbs could hit a homer tonight. took him long enough to get his first one. id say 92 ABs gives a pretty good idea of there performance for that season. but you argued me wrong. so okay it doesnt. but that further proves what i believe in his .348 average an 13-13SB all being flaws. your right it'll even itself out soon enough.

So where in his .348 and 13 steals is there a flaw? If you want to say his strikeouts, I will give you that. But where is a flaw in 13 for 13 in steals?

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 09:23 PM
In 2006 Stubbs strikeout % was 25.4, in 2007 it was 24.7 and this year its 25.5. His strikeout rate is essentially the exact same at the three levels he has played at. His walk rate over the same time has been 12.7%, 12% and 10.4%. His wak rate has slowed down just ever so slightly.


Yeah, and if he hits a HR tonight his HR rate in 2008 goes to roughly 1 per 48 AB's. Its way to early to be making HR per AB rates. Lets also take into account the leagues. So while I "can't rebuke facts" I will argue that they certainly aren't enough data available to make much of it. On the flip side, his XBH rate has gone up every year. He had an XBH% of 30.1%, 34.3% and 40.6% at each stop.


Well aside from the fact that fielding % if a horrible stat that tells me next to nothing about a players actual defensive ability. As for stolen base %, do I need to remind you that Stubbs was playing with turf toe last year and hamstring issues in 2006? Dudes healthy this year and we are seeing it on the basepaths as he is 13 for 13 early on and on pace for 65-70 steals this year.



Except thats not close to true. Heisey doesn't have as much power. His isolated power numbers last year in Dayton were lower than Stubbs and his isolated power numbers this year in Sarasota are much lower than Stubbs. He does strikeout less. He may have better SB success in the past when Stubbs was hurt, but he isn't the stolen base threat that a healthy Drew Stubbs is. Heisey is 3 for 4 this year. Stubbs is 13 for 13 and has the most steals in the minors without being caught. Its not really close. As for the defense, Stubbs is in a different class than Heisey is out in CF.

Feel free to continue if you want, but the only thing you were right on was that Heisey strikes out less.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 09:24 PM
i just wanted you to see what you've been saying before you embarrass yourself arguing with me.

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 09:24 PM
point proven

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 09:29 PM
What?

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 09:35 PM
sorry i was just trying to get to 50 post. i hated being at 47 , regardless i really dont highly regard stubbs as do you. but thats your opinion. so be it. i do REALLY like chris heisey though. and i wouldnt be suprised if he made it to the bigs in a similar to fashion as did norris hopper a few years back towards the middle of next year, even before drew stubbs.

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 09:48 PM
Don't get me wrong, I really like Heisey and all, but what makes you think he is going to sniff AAA, much less the majors in July 2009?

sweetsport06
04-29-2008, 10:14 PM
a really strong opinion. and the fact that he's 6 SB in 6 attempts this year. has some pretty good defense. in heiseys 757 minor league at-bats he has averaged a HR every 47.3ABs while in stubbs 799 ABs hes averaged one HR every 42.05 ABs. the thing is as much as you want to deny it heisey has had extremely similar minor league stats compared to stubbs. both have played 208 games, heisey has a career .982OPS while stubbs has a .981 OPS. heisey may not have quite as much speed but has had a 78% SB success rate compared to stubbs 74%. heisey has a career .284 average, stubbs .274. go across. its almost frightening how similar there stats are in many categories. basically what im getting at with stubbs being a first round pick there going to want to protect him, wait until he's completely ready as they are with bruce before bringing him up. heisey is a different story as he was a what, 8th round pick. i dont even know. just they'd rather waste his talent by bringing him up to early than stubbs. ill give it to you stubbs has more pure natural talent, but on the other hand heisey uses his less limited talent to the max. i just like the kid i suppose

dougdirt
04-29-2008, 10:20 PM
So many stats are wrong in that I won't even go into it.... but I didn't ask anything about Stubbs. Why do you think Heisey will get to AAA by next year, much less to the Majors?

sweetsport06
04-30-2008, 11:45 AM
did i just not explain it or did you not read my previous post. just as they have with bruce they will protect stubbs future by keeping him in the minors til he is completely ready to play on the major league team. it happens all the time in various major league teams. and because heisey is the lower of the two prospects theyll be more likely to take a chance on bringing him up to early, like they brought up encarnacion up too early several years back, therefor delaying his potential. im not saying in any way at all that chris heisey is in any way a better prospect, player or any such thing better than drew stubbs. all im saying is because stubbs was a first rounder theyll be cautious with him. and because they got a bounty full of young outfielders fit for a 3/4 outfielders spot possibly, such as daniel dorn, chris dickerson, shaun cumberland, b.j. szymanski theres no reason they shouldnt call up players like heisey who perform well consistently in the minors. sure argue off his .242 average so far this year but just as youve pointed out, his limited at-bats are too small a sample size to judge him on. i dont have anything to prove my thought but i believe strongly that heisey will make it to the majors mid 09 and definately before stubbs. but if you think contrary to me as you always seem to thats just great, its your turn to explain why your feeling otherwise.

dougdirt
04-30-2008, 12:42 PM
no, I read what you said. It just doesn't make sense to bring up Heisey. Of all the guys the Reds have in AA/AAA between Danny Dorn, Chris Dickerson, Drew Anderson, Shaun Cumberland, Sean Henry.... what puts Heisey on some track to jump ahead of all of those guys in a year and 2 months from now? It never had anything to do with Stubbs, but everything to do with Chris Heisey and the track he is on where you have him flying through the system from this point forward almost at a pace of Jay Bruce (and Chris Heisey is no Jay Bruce).