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View Full Version : Matt Belisle to Start Monday



reds44
04-19-2008, 02:13 PM
Reds GM Wayne Krivsky said Matt Belisle will be pitching in place of Josh Fogg on Monday. No formal announcement has been made.
-Fay

Good move, and one that needed to be made.

Matt700wlw
04-19-2008, 02:15 PM
Fogg needed to go.

VR
04-19-2008, 02:16 PM
Who goes....Coffey?

Tornon
04-19-2008, 02:21 PM
Doesn't Fogg have to go? I thought they said he couldn't pitch out of the bullpen

SMcGavin
04-19-2008, 02:22 PM
Good to hear. You know I think this rotation is actually pretty good.

rotnoid
04-19-2008, 02:31 PM
Good to hear. You know I think this rotation is actually pretty good.

It was OK before, at least 1-4. Now that Fogg's gone, they won't have that to blame any more. Now, let's score some runs.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2008, 02:40 PM
-Fay

Good move, and one that needed to be made.

Encouraging steps in the right direction.

reds44
04-19-2008, 02:48 PM
Thom just said Fogg was going to the pen.

Tony Cloninger
04-19-2008, 02:53 PM
Well they do need a long man in the bullpen....Fogg= Clay Kirby 1975

RedlegJake
04-19-2008, 02:56 PM
Fogg might be able to add a couple innings to Volquez and Cueto starts when they're short innings. After their stuff Fogg might look confusing. I hope.

marcshoe
04-19-2008, 03:21 PM
I'm very happy that Fogg was only given three starts. That's fewer than Dumatrait, even, and shows progress.

mth123
04-19-2008, 04:41 PM
I'm very happy that Fogg was only given three starts. That's fewer than Dumatrait, even, and shows progress.

Here is a thought. A DL Stint for Arroyo to rest his arm and give him a rehab outing or two to get his mechanics back? Maybe give Fogg another start or two and keep Coffey active. If Coffey can put a couple more outings like the last two together, he may draw some trade interest and giving Fogg a couple more starts is worth it if it can get Arroyo on track. Its also probably a good idea to keep Fogg around. Belisle has been great against minor leaguers, but its possible he could come up and struggle as well. I don't cut anyone loose who is capable of providing starts right now.

PuffyPig
04-19-2008, 04:59 PM
Well they do need a long man in the bullpen....Fogg= Clay Kirby 1975

Kirby relieved in 7 games in 1975, 19 starts.

Tony Cloninger
04-19-2008, 05:16 PM
I know....but Foggs pitching is almost Kirby 1975...1976 like.
I would still take Kirby but he had a way better team behind him.

MrCinatit
04-19-2008, 05:19 PM
Gotta feeling Weathers will be on the DL, which could be the move which opens the door for Belisle. Unless there are other moves.
Belisle showed some flashes of brilliance last year - and other flashes of being downright terrible. Let us hope he is getting his act together. Then again, he is an automatic improvement over Foggy nights.

mth123
04-19-2008, 05:26 PM
Gotta feeling Weathers will be on the DL, which could be the move which opens the door for Belisle. Unless there are other moves.
Belisle showed some flashes of brilliance last year - and other flashes of being downright terrible. Let us hope he is getting his act together. Then again, he is an automatic improvement over Foggy nights.

I wonder how long Weathers has had elbow issues. His K Rate took a huge drop in the middle of 2007 and hasn't rebounded. I'd bet the daily use in the first half of 2007 took its toll. Another parting gift courtesy of Jerry Narron and the horrible collection of cast-offs that WK assembled as a pen in 2007??
It could be nothing I guess, but it looks bad when a guy like Weathers chooses to come out of the game.

Red in Chicago
04-19-2008, 05:26 PM
belisle better than fogg, but let's not expect too much...he is not the answer.

VR
04-19-2008, 05:28 PM
belisle better than fogg, but let's not expect too much...he is not the answer.

No, but he a huge upgrade to the #5 spot


I just hope the lineup card gets adjusted at some point, or these pitchers will keep going out there feeling like they need to be perfect to win.

MrCinatit
04-19-2008, 05:30 PM
I wonder how long Weathers has had elbow issues. His K Rate took a huge drop in the middle of 2007 and hasn't rebounded. I'd bet the daily use in the first half of 2007 took its toll. Another parting gift courtesy of Jerry Narron and the horrible collection of cast-offs that WK assembled as a pen in 2007??
It could be nothing I guess, but it looks bad when a guy like Weathers chooses to come out of the game.

Looking at how bad he's been at times this year, I wonder how much he has actually been hurting so far.
And watching him choose to come out of the game was a bit heartbreaking. You can tell on his face that he wanted to stay in - and dominate - but the body was not quite willing.

And I could not agree more, Red in Chicago. Belisle is a (better than Fogg) stopgap. I am OK with someone like him being a # 5 starter, but not thrilled.
In reality, I am hoping Homer will get his head screwed on straight.

Caveat Emperor
04-19-2008, 06:56 PM
belisle better than fogg, but let's not expect too much...he is not the answer.

Matt Belisle's baseline is Josh Fogg's upside.

At worst, he's a placeholder for Homer Bailey that can pitch competent baseball. At best, he's the kinda guy that could really net the Reds a haul at the deadline moving to a contender in need of another starter.

marcshoe
04-19-2008, 09:05 PM
Kirby relieved in 7 games in 1975, 19 starts.

I'm glad you looked that up. I thought my memory was failing me.

Who was the other number 5 starter? Darcy?

marcshoe
04-19-2008, 10:52 PM
Yep. I looked it up, and Darcy had 22 starts (the same number as Gullett) and 5 relief appearances (I remember him pitching in relief on opening day and, I think, getting the win), Tom Carroll had 7 and Clay Carroll had 2.

LINEDRIVER
04-19-2008, 11:53 PM
I know....but Foggs pitching is almost Kirby 1975...1976 like.
I would still take Kirby but he had a way better team behind him.

Clay Kirby. The guy with the career 1.38 WHIP, but who had a 1.06 WHIP when pitching against the Reds while with the lowly San Diego Padres from 1969-1973. Seemed to take it up a notch against Cincinnati.

but...1976 like? Wow! That's bad, real bad.

Kirby spent '74 & '75 with the Reds and spent 1976 with the Expos. He didn't fare well with Montreal, going 1-8 with a 5.62 ERA in 15 starts. Those pesky night games ate him up in 1976. One win and seven losses with a 6.50 ERA in night games, 0-1 and a 4.01 ERA in day games. Finished the year at 1-8 with 63 walks in 78.2 innings and a 5.72 ERA in a total of 22 games. Kirby was released in December, 1976. That was the end of his major league career, done at the age of 28. He suffered a heart attack and died at the age of 43.


Here's a salute to Clayton.

September 24, 1971 ... Twenty-three year-old Padres' starter Clay Kirby misses an opportunity to pick up a win even though he allows just 3 walks and 8 hits while fanning FIFTEEN in FIFTEEN innings of work vs. the Astros in San Diego. Houston finally breaks the 1-1 tie in the top of the 22nd inning. Final score, Astros 2, Padres 1.

.

reds44
04-21-2008, 09:00 PM
Belisle isn't looking any better.

RedsManRick
04-21-2008, 09:01 PM
No kidding. Belisle doing his best Fogg impression. Everything in the zone is getting stung.

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 09:02 PM
Belisle looking like Belise.

Tony Cloninger
04-21-2008, 09:04 PM
Kirby got worn out in SD.....he was abused and I usually am the type not to get all bent out of shape over 110-120 pitches by a starter...but he probably threw closer to 140-150..with his control.

Matt makes me pine for the hurlings of Pat Darcy circa 1976 or Jack Billingham circa 1977.

joshnky
04-21-2008, 09:06 PM
I think the off season made us forget that Belisle is not a very good pitcher. He is potential to be decent on occasion but he blows up like this far too often. Is he really a better option than Fogg?

Aronchis
04-21-2008, 09:06 PM
Belisle has stunk donkeystains tonight.

If Arroyo was pitching well, I wouldn't worry so much as that would leave 1 outright sinkhole in the rotation, which could be handled.

But now the Reds have 2 sinkholes. Getting bleaker by the day. SOS to Homer Bailey, SOS to Homer Bailey, SOS to Homer Bailey please have a come to Jesus moment with your breaking pitch thank you: sent by smoke signal from Wayne "I am desperate" Krivsky.

redsrule2500
04-21-2008, 09:14 PM
Well he's really sucking it up. Our offense is still completely dead though.

joshnky
04-21-2008, 09:17 PM
Well he's really sucking it up. Our offense is still completely dead though.

You can't spot a great pitcher 5 runs in the third inning. Penny can really challenge the hitters now and not worry about making a mistake.

WVRedsFan
04-21-2008, 09:18 PM
Keystone Kops in Red and white uniforms.

Kc61
04-21-2008, 09:20 PM
This winter, there was much debate about Belisle. Some said that he was actually a solid number three or four starter whose problem was "bad luck." Others said that he gives up way too many solidly hit balls, resulting in a high base hit and runs against total. There was all kinds of statistical debate.

I would hope that the Reds would be looking for some results at this point.

kbrake
04-21-2008, 09:32 PM
Might as well let Belisle get in some work not like this offense is coming back.

Tommyjohn25
04-21-2008, 09:37 PM
As I watch my TV, the Dodgers just scored their 6th run. That is some hella bad luck. 12 hits. :rolleyes:

jesusfan
04-21-2008, 09:39 PM
Belisle was absolutely terrible! Time to give Affeldt a chance at the 5th starter... Can we win a first game of series please!

joshnky
04-21-2008, 09:39 PM
Belisle is awful. This isn't a great LA team and they're taking batting practice off Matt. We saw this last year and can expect it to continue this year.

reds44
04-21-2008, 09:41 PM
He gave up 12 hits and got 12 outs.

Amazing.

redsfaninbsg
04-21-2008, 09:42 PM
Paging Homer Bailey............... Paging Homer Bailey...................

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 09:42 PM
Belisle is awful. This isn't a great LA team and they're taking batting practice off Matt. We saw this last year and can expect it to continue this year.

I kept hearing how he's primed for an Aaron Harang type of break out season, and he's gotten a lot of bad luck, and his numbers, if you look deeper are evident of that.

Yeah. He is what he is, and what that is isn't good.

Joseph
04-21-2008, 09:44 PM
I blame David Ross.

Kidding.

I had some high hopes Belisle would have a big year, he might still, but pitching like he did tonights not gonna keep him here long.

Aronchis
04-21-2008, 09:46 PM
I kept hearing how he's primed for an Aaron Harang type of break out season, and he's gotten a lot of bad luck, and his numbers, if you look deeper are evident of that.

Yeah. He is what he is, and what that is isn't good.

That isn't what is being said. Basically the general theme is he can be a bottom of the rotation staple. Having a "Harang style breakout" wasn't expected though it couldn't be discounted as a possiblity, as neither was Harang's. Sometimes those stuff lacking righties, with big frames and arms overperform.

Tonights start was just bad bad bad bad bad. He didn't have any location at all. Hopefully it was just a bad start and he could have used another tuneup in the minors.

pahster
04-21-2008, 09:48 PM
Belisle

First start back from the DL bad: check.

Impossible for any positive contributions to be made: obviously.

:rolleyes:

Cedric
04-21-2008, 09:49 PM
That isn't what is being said. Basically the general theme is he can be a bottom of the rotation staple. Having a "Harang style breakout" wasn't expected though it couldn't be discounted as a possiblity, as neither was Harang's. Sometimes those stuff lacking righties, with big frames and arms overperform.

Tonights start was just bad bad bad bad bad. He didn't have any location at all. Hopefully it was just a bad start and he could have used another tuneup in the minors.

It's early but that is a struggling team he just faced. I don't particularly like anything that Belisle does on the hill. I see him as Elizardo, Jose Acevado, and Reitsma all rolled into one. I'd prefer to give Affeldt or Bailey the ball and go with it. I haven't wavered in thinking that Matt Belisle is a truly bad pitcher.

Cedric
04-21-2008, 09:50 PM
Belisle

First start back from the DL bad: check.

Impossible for any positive contributions to be made: obviously.

:rolleyes:

Some people have always claimed that Belisle wasn't a starter. I don't think rolling eyes is justifiable considering his pretty bad career numbers as a starter.

jesusfan
04-21-2008, 09:50 PM
Here we Come!

reds44
04-21-2008, 09:50 PM
4+ IP, 12 H, 7 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

84 pitches
52 strikes

He wasn't wild, he wasn't unlucky, he was just awful.

jesusfan
04-21-2008, 09:51 PM
Nevermind, Patterson pinch-hitting...

pahster
04-21-2008, 09:52 PM
Some people have always claimed that Belisle wasn't a starter. I don't think rolling eyes is justifiable considering his pretty bad career numbers as a starter.

I'm all for replacing Belisle with a better starter. The Reds don't have one. He's fine as a BOR guy.

Highlifeman21
04-21-2008, 09:54 PM
Paging Homer Bailey............... Paging Homer Bailey...................

Hopefully you're paging him to make sure he's still in AAA.

Where he belongs...

I'm sure that sentiment will change from me after the trading deadline.

reds44
04-21-2008, 09:54 PM
I'm all for replacing Belisle with a better starter. The Reds don't have one. He's fine as a BOR guy.
Not for a team that has any plans of competing.

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 09:56 PM
The numbers on Bailey looking better this year, but I wouldn't be upset if they let him go a bit longer down there to see if he can maintain it.

I also doubt I'd complain if they brought him up, and stuck him the rotation with the other youngsters and went ahead and rolled with it

pahster
04-21-2008, 09:58 PM
Not for a team that has any plans of competing.

The Reds won't be doing any of that this year.

Which playoff teams had better 5th starters than Belisle last year?

Kc61
04-21-2008, 09:58 PM
That isn't what is being said. Basically the general theme is he can be a bottom of the rotation staple. Having a "Harang style breakout" wasn't expected though it couldn't be discounted as a possiblity, as neither was Harang's. Sometimes those stuff lacking righties, with big frames and arms overperform.

Tonights start was just bad bad bad bad bad. He didn't have any location at all. Hopefully it was just a bad start and he could have used another tuneup in the minors.


Actually, what was said, repeatedly, was that Belisle was better than a fifth starter, was a high caliber fourth starter, and ok as a third starter. And what was also said was his 212 hits allowed in 177 innings last year was the result of bad luck. Some said extremely bad luck.

I don't think folks projected him to be another Harang. But he was projected as a very solid middle of the rotation pitcher.

The purpose of this is not to re-kindle the debate because it's all been said. But hopefully everybody --including Krivsky -- will agree that if this year is again loaded with "bad luck" it's time to move on.

CTA513
04-21-2008, 10:02 PM
Ill take him as the 5th starter until the Reds have someone better thats ready to pitch in the majors.

reds44
04-21-2008, 10:06 PM
Fogg gives up 2 runs before getting an out.

:lol:

This is awesome.

joshnky
04-21-2008, 10:12 PM
The Reds won't be doing any of that this year.

Which playoff teams had better 5th starters than Belisle last year?

Does that mean we should accept a 5.32 ERA and WHIP of 1.44? Just because every team struggles with the 5th starter doesn't mean you should be satisfied with losing every fifth day. The fact that he is comparable to so many fifth starts suggests that he is easily replaced because that spot is traditionally a revolving door on many teams. The fact that Bobby Livingston and Tom Shearn matched Belisle last year says enough about Belisle's value to this club.

I don't mind giving him another couple starts but after that its time to test some of the younger unknowns like Homer and Maloney. They can't do much worse and have potential to do much better.

Kc61
04-21-2008, 10:18 PM
Does that mean we should accept a 5.32 ERA and WHIP of 1.44? Just because every team struggles with the 5th starter doesn't mean you should be satisfied with losing every fifth day. They can't do much worse and have potential to do much better.

Just hope Krivsky isn't satisfied.

pahster
04-21-2008, 10:19 PM
Does that mean we should accept a 5.32 ERA and WHIP of 1.44? Just because every team struggles with the 5th starter doesn't mean you should be satisfied with losing every fifth day. The fact that he is comparable to so many fifth starts suggests that he is easily replaced because that spot is traditionally a revolving door on many teams. The fact that Bobby Livingston and Tom Shearn matched Belisle last year says enough about Belisle's value to this club.

I don't mind giving him another couple starts but after that its time to test some of the younger unknowns like Homer and Maloney. They can't do much worse and have potential to do much better.

No. I said I'm all for replacing Belisle with a better starter, but the Reds don't have one of those. Belisle is better than the average 5th starter. Shearn's got nothing, nothing on Belisle. Tonight's outing by Belisle was Shearns-like. If he keeps pitching like this then yeah, give someone else a try. Unless he's still injured, I doubt that's going to happen, though.

WVRedsFan
04-21-2008, 10:22 PM
Watch it guys. This is resembling a game thread :)

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2008, 11:16 PM
Votto hit a 466 foot homerun tonight onto the Riverboat Deck in CF. What a bomb.

*BaseClogger*
04-21-2008, 11:17 PM
Small Sample Alert! :rockband:

Wheelhouse
04-21-2008, 11:49 PM
Question: do the Reds start Belisle again or send him back down? I'd vote for the latter. Let him rack up some nice AAA numbers and beef up his trade value. Tonight, he was clearly not a ML pitcher.

guttle11
04-21-2008, 11:51 PM
Someone has to be the 5th starter until Homer is deemed ready. There's three options: Belisle, Fogg, and Affeldt. That's just something we're going to have to live with for another month or two.

paintmered
04-21-2008, 11:53 PM
Belisle did enough last year to get at least one more start before he goes back on the trash heap.

Matt700wlw
04-21-2008, 11:57 PM
Belisle's thoughts:

"I'm disappointed to come out there like that and have those results," said Belisle, who was activated from the disabled list earlier in the day. "I felt very in control of the rhythm and tempo of it all. I felt early on that there were a lot of good pitches that were hit. As the game progressed, I didn't expand the zone enough for how aggressive they were swinging. I made some mistakes. Y'all saw it; that was a beating. That was a lot of hits."

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2008, 12:07 AM
I prefer Belisle over Fogg until Homer Bailey is ready.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 12:08 AM
Belisle looking like Belise.

Yep. I agree with Marty. Belisle looks pretty much exactly like he did last year. He's very hittable. Bad luck has nothing to do with it.

It's pretty much a tossup on whether he or Fogg is better. IMO, the team is better with only one of Fogg and Belisle on the roster. That's why I didn't want Coffey pushed off the team to call up Belisle.

HokieRed
04-22-2008, 12:13 AM
I'd give Belisle one more start. He still has the chance to be a marginal #5, which, frankly, we need for a while. If the only options are Fogg, Belisle, or Affeldt, I don't know why either Justin Lehr or Tom Shearn should be excluded.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 12:14 AM
Question: do the Reds start Belisle again or send him back down? I'd vote for the latter. Let him rack up some nice AAA numbers and beef up his trade value. Tonight, he was clearly not a ML pitcher.

I questioned his trade value in the offseason, despite some people saying he was due for a breakout. His trade value isn't going to get any better at AAA.

In all fairness, I think he should get 3 starts, just as Fogg did, but no guarantees beyond that.

Screwball
04-22-2008, 12:14 AM
That was a beat down, no doubt about it. But Belisle's a helluva lot better than he showed tonight. I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

Falls City Beer
04-22-2008, 12:15 AM
Belisle did enough last year to get at least one more start before he goes back on the trash heap.

Yep.

Matt700wlw
04-22-2008, 12:20 AM
I have no problem giving him a few more starts...it's only fair for any starter (Hell, Fogg got 3)....but he better get it turned around quickly...I don't see him getting a long leash this time...they saw what he is last year...more of the same will keep the door open for somebody else to get their shot.

SMcGavin
04-22-2008, 01:02 AM
Dumping Belisle after one start would be a waste of a potentially valuable asset. He's one of the best five starting pitchers the Reds have, so he stays.

Matt700wlw
04-22-2008, 01:25 AM
Dumping Belisle after one start would be a waste of a potentially valuable asset. He's one of the best five starting pitchers the Reds have, so he stays.

Are we sure about that?

fearofpopvol1
04-22-2008, 02:05 AM
Honestly, I don't put much stock into the game tonight. Obviously, Belisle sucked. However, it's his first major league start in what, 7 months? Clearly, he didn't adjust to major league hitters. I think he deserves at least 1, maybe 2 more starts before passing too much judgment. If he sucks the next time out (and the time after), then maybe he needs to go back to 3a.

I think fans have put Belisle on a shorter leash because of the timing of this loss. Admittedly, it's horrible timing. If it's any consolation, Josh Fogg sucked in his 2 innings of relief as well. I do wonder with Ross coming off the DL (and Coffey pitching decently tonight) if this does not signal that Belisle could be sent right back down. It'd be the wrong move in my opinion.

If the Reds want to stay competitive in the division, they really can't afford to lose more games than they're winning right now. I think you have to keep in mind expectations and be reasonable.

WVRedsFan
04-22-2008, 02:17 AM
Honestly, I don't put much stock into the game tonight. Obviously, Belisle sucked. However, it's his first major league start in what, 7 months? Clearly, he didn't adjust to major league hitters. I think he deserves at least 1, maybe 2 more starts before passing too much judgment. If he sucks the next time out (and the time after), then maybe he needs to go back to 3a.

I think fans have put Belisle on a shorter leash because of the timing of this loss. Admittedly, it's horrible timing. If it's any consolation, Josh Fogg sucked in his 2 innings of relief as well. I do wonder with Ross coming off the DL (and Coffey pitching decently tonight) if this does not signal that Belisle could be sent right back down. It'd be the wrong move in my opinion.

If the Reds want to stay competitive in the division, they really can't afford to lose more games than they're winning right now. I think you have to keep in mind expectations and be reasonable.

I think I mentioned the Belisle formula--pitch well one time and get lit up the next. Tongiht was butane lighter night. Nothing new.

It's obvious Fogg is fodder (and those who want to defend his contract, go ahead. We gave him a contract when everyone else knew he was not that good) and Belisle not much better. That 5th spot looks mighty bad right about now. Ross is back in town and that means we lose a player who might be more productive. I sit him until Paul quits hitting. of course at they guys on the pre game show said, Ross wasn't even hitting minor league pitching. Nothing new. Oh, those big contracts. It reauires guys like Ross a job. And someone else gets cut. At a time we need hitting, and lots of it, it's brings peace to me that David Ross is back. Yeah, right.

Ron Madden
04-22-2008, 04:49 AM
Belisle had an ugly, ugly, terrible game.

He has more talent than he displayed tonight. Hell, his next game has to be better.

joshnky
04-22-2008, 07:23 AM
Small Sample Alert! :rockband:

Was all of last season a small sample?

lollipopcurve
04-22-2008, 08:06 AM
Belisle did enough last year to get at least one more start before he goes back on the trash heap.

If we're going on last year, Fogg pitched pretty well for Colorado and had some big games down the stretch in a pennant race. I think it's obvious both can pitch better than they have. I thought Fogg looked pretty good last night, actually, after he gave up the home run. If he's keeping the ball at the knees, like he was, he'll get outs. Belisle seemed tentative to me, and his stuff looked more hittable than it was last year. Only one start, though.

OldXOhio
04-22-2008, 09:05 AM
If we're going on last year, Fogg pitched pretty well for Colorado and had some big games down the stretch in a pennant race. I think it's obvious both can pitch better than they have. I thought Fogg looked pretty good last night, actually, after he gave up the home run. If he's keeping the ball at the knees, like he was, he'll get outs. Belisle seemed tentative to me, and his stuff looked more hittable than it was last year. Only one start, though.

I guess the good news is we're talking about our #5 here rather than our #3 like in year's past. And maybe I'm a little spoiled by what we've seen out of Volquez and Cueto, but I just don't have much patience for Matt Belisle any longer. He seems more a link to our troubled past rather than a signal of how positive the future could be.

Kc61
04-22-2008, 09:12 AM
I guess the good news is we're talking about our #5 here rather than our #3 like in year's past. And maybe I'm a little spoiled by what we've seen out of Volquez and Cueto, but I just don't have much patience for Matt Belisle any longer. He seems more a link to our troubled past rather than a signal of how positive the future could be.

Oddly the problem with Fogg/Belisle starting any games is the offense. The team doesn't score runs so any fifth starter type is very likely to lose. Fogg was pulled from the rotation after three starts despite being a starter on an NL Champ team last year -- but if the Reds scored some runs maybe they stick longer with him. Same with Belisle.

In the past years the pitching was bad so the offense was constantly under pressure to score tons of runs. Now the hitting is so weak that there's no room for pitchers who allow, say, 5 runs in a game.

OldXOhio
04-22-2008, 09:16 AM
Oddly the problem with Fogg/Belisle starting any games is the offense. The team doesn't score runs so any fifth starter type is very likely to lose.


No argument about the offense, but even a high scoring one can't cover a pair of starters with a combined 12 ERA.

Strikes Out Looking
04-22-2008, 09:19 AM
Offense? I remember the Reds having one of those, sometime a few years back...

redsrule2500
04-22-2008, 09:46 AM
Bring me Homer Bailey

SMcGavin
04-22-2008, 09:54 AM
Are we sure about that?

If people thought he was one of the best five before last night (and judging by the start of this thread most people did), it's unwise to change that based on one start. There will be cries for Bailey now... people forget Bailey was significantly worse than Belisle last season. Not that Homer can't or hasn't improved, but he is not going to be the knight riding in to save our rotation. Let him develop and come up when he is ready.

joshnky
04-22-2008, 10:18 AM
There will be cries for Bailey now... people forget Bailey was significantly worse than Belisle last season.


Player W-L ERA GO/AO WHIP AVG BB/9 K/9 H/9
M Belisle 8-9 5.32 1.04 1.44 .301 2.18 6.33 10.74
H Bailey 4-2 5.76 1.13 1.57 .257 5.56 5.56 8.54

Significantly worse? No, they were both pretty bad. Homer walked too many people but got more ground outs while Belisle served as a batting tee (like last night) and opponents hit .301 against him.

I agree with everyone else that Belisle deserves another couple starts but the claims of overreaction based on one start are unfounded. Belisle was awful last year and though I had hoped for improvement, last night suggests that he is what he is.

redsmetz
04-22-2008, 10:19 AM
If people thought he was one of the best five before last night (and judging by the start of this thread most people did), it's unwise to change that based on one start. There will be cries for Bailey now... people forget Bailey was significantly worse than Belisle last season. Not that Homer can't or hasn't improved, but he is not going to be the knight riding in to save our rotation. Let him develop and come up when he is ready.

I was thinking about Belisle's performance this morning. I didn't get a chance to hear the first half of the game as I had a campaign meeting for my older brother who is running for judge here in Hamilton County, but I turned the game on just as Belisle's shallacking was finishing and Affeldt was coming in.

What occurred to me was that most pitchers have a sloppy game here and there throughout the season and this one just happened to be right out the chute. Obviously, we'll have to see how he does in the next starts. And I agree with those who've said our offensive woes are, in some ways, magnifying any pitching that isn't fantastic. No room for error when your offense is sputtering.

And, it is a plus, as others have also said, that we're talking about the #5 slot, not the #3.

Matt700wlw
04-22-2008, 04:46 PM
Was all of last season a small sample?

No, that was bad luck

Matt700wlw
04-22-2008, 04:47 PM
If people thought he was one of the best five before last night (and judging by the start of this thread most people did), it's unwise to change that based on one start.


Then I'm consistant. I didn't think he was one of the best 5 going into Spring.

Benihana
04-22-2008, 04:50 PM
I would let Belisle pitch out of the #5 slot from now until the draft. I'm guessing he will be more than sufficient in that role. If Bailey continues to throw well in Louisville, I would bring him up in June. If Belisle is pitching well, I'd go to a 6-man rotation (to keep the rookies' innings down) with Harang going every 5th day no matter what. If Belisle continues to pitch like he did last night than I'd replace him with Bailey in June, but not before then.

*BaseClogger*
04-22-2008, 04:55 PM
FWIW, last year Belisle was an above-average NL #5 pitching in GABP with a terrible defense...

RedlegJake
04-22-2008, 05:01 PM
I think you have to pitch Belisle until he completely falls out of the picture. This is the year to make a final decision on him. He's the right age, has experience, has stuff...now he either makes a move or drops from the picture. His first star doesn't bother me too much. What will he do over 5 or 6 starts - then you judge.

Benihana
04-22-2008, 05:07 PM
I think you have to pitch Belisle until he completely falls out of the picture. This is the year to make a final decision on him. He's the right age, has experience, has stuff...now he either makes a move or drops from the picture. His first star doesn't bother me too much. What will he do over 5 or 6 starts - then you judge.

completely agree. No decision should be made until June at the earliest.

RedsManRick
04-22-2008, 05:13 PM
I think you have to pitch Belisle until he completely falls out of the picture. This is the year to make a final decision on him. He's the right age, has experience, has stuff...now he either makes a move or drops from the picture. His first star doesn't bother me too much. What will he do over 5 or 6 starts - then you judge.

I agree 100%. He's in roughly the same boat as Todd Coffey. The Reds don't gain anything by jerking him around even more. Give him a sufficient chance to earn permanent status or send him packing and give that chance to somebody else. You need to know what you have and you can't do that in tiny samples.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2008, 05:17 PM
I think you have to pitch Belisle until he completely falls out of the picture. This is the year to make a final decision on him. He's the right age, has experience, has stuff...now he either makes a move or drops from the picture. His first star doesn't bother me too much. What will he do over 5 or 6 starts - then you judge.

I agree, let him work through the ups and downs and see how it all works out.

bucksfan2
04-22-2008, 05:18 PM
I agree 100%. He's in roughly the same boat as Todd Coffey. The Reds don't gain anything by jerking him around even more. Give him a sufficient chance to earn permanent status or send him packing and give that chance to somebody else. You need to know what you have and you can't do that in tiny samples.

I don't agree. I think Belisle gets another start or two and if he doesn't pitch well he goes into the pen. Someone with the arm and arsenol of Belisle shouldn't be a 5th starter type. If he can't start then I send him to the pen and tell him to go max effort for an inning at a time. Look at Gagne, he was a starter with some upside who never succeeded as a starter. When he was moved to the pen he was the most dominant closer for a handful of years.

membengal
04-22-2008, 05:24 PM
It was just a real disheartening start. The balls hit off of him were bullets. All over the park.

Kc61
04-22-2008, 05:27 PM
completely agree. No decision should be made until June at the earliest.

Josh Fogg has a sub-5.00 ERA in over a thousand innings of MLB work. He started for the NL Champ Rockies last year. Yet he got exactly three starts to prove himself with the Reds.

Belisle's one starting season was 5.32 with 212 hits allowed in 177 innings. He was entirely ineffective in his first game this year. Yet folks all agree that he should stay in the rotation until June, if not longer.

I give Belise another four or five starts. If he doesn't improve, I DFA Fogg and put Belisle in the pen. If he is going to get better, let him show it out of the bullpen pitching long relief.

RedsManRick
04-22-2008, 05:44 PM
I don't agree. I think Belisle gets another start or two and if he doesn't pitch well he goes into the pen. Someone with the arm and arsenol of Belisle shouldn't be a 5th starter type. If he can't start then I send him to the pen and tell him to go max effort for an inning at a time. Look at Gagne, he was a starter with some upside who never succeeded as a starter. When he was moved to the pen he was the most dominant closer for a handful of years.

The question I have is who your other option is and what that accomplishes? Do you put Fogg back in the rotation? Give Affeldt a shot? Bring up Bailey?

puca
04-22-2008, 05:47 PM
It was just a real disheartening start. The balls hit off of him were bullets. All over the park.

Yea, I know.

I was firmly in the 'give Belisle a full season' camp before that start. Now, ugh..... I know, I know... it was just one start, .... but ugh.

puca
04-22-2008, 05:53 PM
The question I have is who your other option is and what that accomplishes? Do you put Fogg back in the rotation? Give Affeldt a shot? Bring up Bailey?

No, no and no (at least not anytime soon).

Actually, if Belisle continues pitching so poorly I would push him to the pen before I DFA'd him, just to see if that's where he belongs. If that meant Fogg back in the rotation, I guess that's what I'd do....reluctantly.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 06:01 PM
Was all of last season a small sample?

Belisle has shown me nothing in his entire career to give me hope that he will ever be a decent starting pitcher. There's a reason Atlanta gave up on him.

I never understood the long love affair this board has had with Belisle.
My guess is that he was a glimmer of hope in the miserable 2003 season, and people have a hard time giving up on that hope. Much like people had trouble accepting that the Claussen trade was a failure. I'm not trying to talk down to anyone. I understand it. I get emotionally attached to players myself and overvalue them.

The fact is that Belisle always been very hittable, it has nothing to do with bad luck.

That said, I don't really mind if he stays in the rotation until something better comes along. It's a toss up between him and Fogg. I initially thought Fogg would be better, but they are both disasters.

REDREAD
04-22-2008, 06:07 PM
No, no and no (at least not anytime soon).

Actually, if Belisle continues pitching so poorly I would push him to the pen before I DFA'd him, just to see if that's where he belongs. If that meant Fogg back in the rotation, I guess that's what I'd do....reluctantly.

If I was running the team, that's what I'd do as well.

In fact, I would've moved him straight to the pen when he was promoted.
Part of the evaluation process with Belisle this year should include seeing if he can become an effective reliever like he was in 2005-2006. Those were small sample sizes, so we need to see what Matt can do out of the pen.

Last season was enough to convince me that Matt will probably never be an effective starter.

It's too bad Fogg imploded so quickly. That really throws a wrench into things. If Fogg was able to pitch close ML average, that would've been huge for this team.

Cedric
04-22-2008, 09:05 PM
It was just a real disheartening start. The balls hit off of him were bullets. All over the park.

That is his MO. The guy doesn't have "great" stuff like everyone says. He throws 92 and it's straight as an arrow and he can't locate it. People will try and argue next off season that BABIP was a huge factor with Matt. I'd prefer pulling out the tape and not relying on guesswork. The guy just doesn't locate enough to not get hit all over the park.

SMcGavin
04-22-2008, 09:13 PM
There's a reason Atlanta gave up on him.


I know it's not just you, but this line always drives me nuts. Atlanta didn't "give up" on him. They traded him for something they needed. Just like Texas didn't "give up" on Volquez this winter and the Reds didn't "give up" on Josh Hamilton. Sorry, rant over.

RedlegJake
04-23-2008, 03:02 AM
That is his MO. The guy doesn't have "great" stuff like everyone says. He throws 92 and it's straight as an arrow and he can't locate it. People will try and argue next off season that BABIP was a huge factor with Matt. I'd prefer pulling out the tape and not relying on guesswork. The guy just doesn't locate enough to not get hit all over the park.

I'll disagree about Matt's stuff. He is above average. Which really means nothing if you can't do the bolded part. And there you're dead on the money.

gm
04-23-2008, 03:44 AM
The reason Belisle was moved from the bullpen to the rotation was that his back couldn't handle the workload of pitching 3-4 times a week. Unless Matt's hired a personal trainer with some innovative back exercises to correct this cronic malady I expect he'll remain what he is...a 4A starting pitcher

bucksfan2
04-23-2008, 09:53 AM
The question I have is who your other option is and what that accomplishes? Do you put Fogg back in the rotation? Give Affeldt a shot? Bring up Bailey?

Yea I give Fogg the ball every 5th start until Bailey is ready to step in. When people defend Belisle they always bring up that he was unlucky or had a high BABIP. In reality his BABIP is high becasue he gets shelled in most of his starts. IMO Fogg gives you a better chance to win than Belisle does. He doesn't have the "stuff" that Belisle does but so far Belisle's "stuff" hasn't translated onto the field.

*BaseClogger*
04-23-2008, 11:34 AM
Yea I give Fogg the ball every 5th start until Bailey is ready to step in. When people defend Belisle they always bring up that he was unlucky or had a high BABIP. In reality his BABIP is high becasue he gets shelled in most of his starts. IMO Fogg gives you a better chance to win than Belisle does. He doesn't have the "stuff" that Belisle does but so far Belisle's "stuff" hasn't translated onto the field.

Just wondering, could justify why Josh Fogg gives you a better chance to win?

Kc61
04-23-2008, 11:46 AM
Just wondering, could justify why Josh Fogg gives you a better chance to win?


The two of them are pretty close. Fogg pitched reasonably well last year with the Rockies (4.94 ERA), but that team's defense is superb and that likely helped. The argument for Fogg is that he is more experienced and has a lifetime ERA just under 5. Some posters assume Belisle can top that; so far, as a starter, he hasn't. But maybe with more experience he can.

My big problem with the board's take on this is that people think it is ok to have a pitcher at the level of Fogg/Belisle as the fifth man. I don't. Reds should be trying to get an edge on other teams, not to simply repeat league-wide problems (like generally poor fifth starters).

Volquez was really superb last night. I was very, very impressed. He gets better when there's trouble. Harang is a top pitcher and Cueto a great rookie.

Arroyo must get back to form and Bailey must arrive reasonably soon. These are two achievable goals, IMO. Fogg and Belisle may have a role on the team, but likely not in the 5-man rotation.

In the interim, while waiting for Bailey, Belisle should get his shot. Maybe he will get it going. Hope he does.

bucksfan2
04-23-2008, 12:00 PM
Just wondering, could justify why Josh Fogg gives you a better chance to win?

Over the course of his career Fogg has been fairly consistant winning 10-12 games and pitching .500 baseball. He is by no means anything special but give him the ball every 5th day and he will probably have a .500 record. He has also been a starter his entire career and you can't just switch a guy like that to the pen overnight and expect success.

Belisle on the other hand just doesn't get it as a starter. It seems like every time he takes the mound he gets hit hard. FSN put up a stat that his first inning is awful which tends to put the reds behind the 8 ball from the beginning. I think that he can be successful in the pen if the reds would put him down there and just tell him to go full blast for one inning. Don't hold anything back and just pitch that one inning. He is still young enough to have a successful career out of the pen but he just doesn't seem to succeed at being a starting pitcher.

*BaseClogger*
04-23-2008, 08:29 PM
The two of them are pretty close. Fogg pitched reasonably well last year with the Rockies (4.94 ERA), but that team's defense is superb and that likely helped. The argument for Fogg is that he is more experienced and has a lifetime ERA just under 5. Some posters assume Belisle can top that; so far, as a starter, he hasn't. But maybe with more experience he can.

My big problem with the board's take on this is that people think it is ok to have a pitcher at the level of Fogg/Belisle as the fifth man. I don't. Reds should be trying to get an edge on other teams, not to simply repeat league-wide problems (like generally poor fifth starters).

Volquez was really superb last night. I was very, very impressed. He gets better when there's trouble. Harang is a top pitcher and Cueto a great rookie.

Arroyo must get back to form and Bailey must arrive reasonably soon. These are two achievable goals, IMO. Fogg and Belisle may have a role on the team, but likely not in the 5-man rotation.

In the interim, while waiting for Bailey, Belisle should get his shot. Maybe he will get it going. Hope he does.

Thank you. That was an excellent response and I can understand all the points you made.


Over the course of his career Fogg has been fairly consistant winning 10-12 games and pitching .500 baseball. He is by no means anything special but give him the ball every 5th day and he will probably have a .500 record. He has also been a starter his entire career and you can't just switch a guy like that to the pen overnight and expect success.

Belisle on the other hand just doesn't get it as a starter. It seems like every time he takes the mound he gets hit hard. FSN put up a stat that his first inning is awful which tends to put the reds behind the 8 ball from the beginning. I think that he can be successful in the pen if the reds would put him down there and just tell him to go full blast for one inning. Don't hold anything back and just pitch that one inning. He is still young enough to have a successful career out of the pen but he just doesn't seem to succeed at being a starting pitcher.

Belisle was 8-9 last season. That is pretty much a .500 record, so if a starting pitcher's W-L is you're reasoning (not reccomended), it doesn't work. Their hit rates are comparable too, so that doesn't seem to fit. So the only justification left is that Fogg has consistenly been bad for many years, while Matt Belisle hasn't proven he's consistenly bad, just bad at adapting from the bullpen. Okay...