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View Full Version : Who's the leadoff hitter?



Chip R
04-19-2008, 10:05 PM
It appears that the Corey Patterson leadoff experiment is a failure. Our other candidates, Freel and Hopper, have some limitations that really don't make them ideal leadoff hitters. A player like Keppenger could lead off but Dusty likes guys with speed at the top of the lineup and he doesn't possess the speed those other three players do. Jay Bruce may be able to do it short term but long term, he's a middle of the lineup hitter.

So who can fill the bill? Since Dusty's the manager, having a very good OBP isn't enough if you can't run. I'm thinking it has to be someone from outside the organization who is probably an OFer - preferably a CFer. If it is someone outside the organization, what would it take to get him?

HumnHilghtFreel
04-19-2008, 10:18 PM
Jeff Keppinger... and have B Cast invest in a jetpack. There you go Dusty, a great hitter with speed.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2008, 10:33 PM
That is a tough question for Dusty since he likes to increase the degree of difficulty. ;)
Assuming that Dusty has come to the belief that Patterson won't cut it at leadoff if it was me I would call up Bruce. Watched him on MILB tonight and he seems to have the confidence, hitting, speed and fielding abilities.

pahster
04-19-2008, 11:31 PM
If he's gonna put up a .340ish OBP over the course of the year, let Phillips do it.

rotnoid
04-19-2008, 11:34 PM
If he's gonna put up a .340ish OBP over the course of the year, let Phillips do it.

Works for me. He had enough speed to steal 30 last year. Should fit Dusty's criteria. That leaves a RH hole in the middle of the order though. So the new question becomes... where does that come from.

Ravenlord
04-19-2008, 11:36 PM
i like Dunn leading off right now.

mostly unrelated, but does anyone think Dunn would get fewere balls at his shins called strikes if he wore the high stirups?

guttle11
04-19-2008, 11:37 PM
I'd definitely go with Keppinger right now. He'll be a patchwork guy, but Patterson simply cannot be the guy that theoretically gets the most ABs in the lineup.

Although if he promises to drop the bunt down every time, I'd put Hopper there for a while. He'd probably have a higher OBP bunting every time than Patterson.

flyer85
04-19-2008, 11:40 PM
It appears that the Corey Patterson leadoff experiment is a failure. Our other candidatesit was a fait accompli

go with Kepp, move EE to 2nd and put Jr 3rd and Dunn 4th

KronoRed
04-19-2008, 11:46 PM
it was a fait accompli

go with Kepp, move EE to 2nd and put Jr 3rd and Dunn 4th

I agree, Kep is the leadoff hitter.

Chip R
04-19-2008, 11:48 PM
i like Dunn leading off right now.



I'd definitely go with Keppinger right now. He'll be a patchwork guy, but Patterson simply cannot be the guy that theoretically gets the most ABs in the lineup.

Although if he promises to drop the bunt down every time, I'd put Hopper there for a while. He'd probably have a higher OBP bunting every time than Patterson.


Gotta remember, fellas, we're in Dustyland now. Dunn is not going to lead off ever so we may as well put that out of our minds right now.

As for Hopper, I see him more as a #2 hitter than a leadoff guy. With no one on base, the 1st and 3rd basemen can play so close they are shaking hands with the guy. With someone on, however, the corner IFers have to play close to their bases and Hop can bunt easier.

Kepp would be a great choice but I don't think Dusty would do it. Besides, Kepp may not have a position to play when Gonzo comes back.

Phhhl
04-19-2008, 11:50 PM
Jay Bruce. I really, REALLY hate to admit it, but I am really starting to think the squire is on to something with the pitcher in the number 8 hole. Bring up Bruce and hit him leadoff playing centerfield, put Keppinger in the number 9 hole so he is on base 35-38% of the time when Jay comes up later in the ballgame. Move Votto up in the order right behind Dunn. Seperate Jr. and Dunn with Edwin, who will be hitting well enough to justify that move soon enough. I like Phillips hitting second, despite the double play numbers. Bruce will hit enough extra base hits to diminish that number.

It's kind of a crapshoot. But, when you look at what has happened so far, it is the lineup that is absolutely killing this team. We are leading the league in strikeouts, and the bullpen is getting the job done better than a much improved rotation. That's the facts.

It's time to make some radical moves to this lineup before we find ourselves in deep bovine scathology. Personally, I am running out of ways to justify the remarkable secondary skills of Corey Patterson.

KronoRed
04-19-2008, 11:51 PM
Kepp would be a great choice but I don't think Dusty would do it. Besides, Kepp may not have a position to play when Gonzo comes back.

Sure he will, Shortstop.

Phhhl
04-20-2008, 12:09 AM
Sure he will, Shortstop.


Bruce CF
Phillips 2b
JR. RF
Edwin 3b
Dunn LF
Votto 1b
Ross\Valentin C
Pitcher P
Kepp SS

That's a good balance of left/right, could account for any orientation day by day without requiring platoons. Votto protects Dunn, where there is noone now. Dunn protects Edwin, where there is noone now. Bruce gets rbi opportunities after his first ab every day. Ross and Valentin play the percentages based on who is starting. Keppinger is an exponentially better hitter than Jason Kendall, who is the poster boy for Larussa's hair brained scheme.

The Reds are getting more than good enough pitching to win. But, the lineup is catty wompas as it is, and there is no indication it will get better without a major shakeup. I like Corey Patterson if he is used correctly on this team, but that role is as a complimentary player who can hit a home run off the bench, steal a base as a pinch runner or play defense late in games.

It is already PAST time for Jay Bruce.

*BaseClogger*
04-20-2008, 12:34 AM
put Keppinger in the number 9 hole

And... Stop.

WVRedsFan
04-20-2008, 12:34 AM
Chip:

Is it an official failure? Has Dusty said so? I really don't think he thinks it's a failure, but I've got news for him. It is.

We don't have a leadoff hitter on the roster. Freel is to impatient and swings wildly. Hopper can bunt--he's a one trick pony who will get some infield hits. He has no pucnch whatsoever. The only choice we have is Keppinger and the lineup should go:

Keppinger
Votto
Dunn
Griffey
Encarnacion
Phillips
Patterson
Bako (or whoever)
Pitcher

Chip R
04-20-2008, 12:58 AM
Chip:

Is it an official failure? Has Dusty said so? I really don't think he thinks it's a failure, but I've got news for him. It is.

We don't have a leadoff hitter on the roster.


CP doesn't play against lefties and we need someone in there who is going to play pretty much every day. I love his defense but if he's not going to play 20% of the time, what good is that defense? I think benching CP against Sheets was telling. Incidentally I heard Marty ask Dusty about that before Friday's game. Dusty said something to the effect of, "We need someone to get on base." Dusty may not worship at the altar of OBP but he wants guys in the lineup who can hit. That's why we are seeing Keppinger at SS instead of Castro. As long as Dusty is manager, CP is going to have to hit to stay in that lineup.

I agree. We don't have a true leadoff hitter in the sense of a .280-.300 hitter who can steal 40-50 bases a year and play great defense. That's what Dusty wants. The only guy that really fits that criteria is Brandon Phillips and he has too much power to hit leadoff in Dustyland.

So where does that leave us? Obviously if that person isn't inside the organization, they have to be on another team now. What about that guy in the Angels system, Reggie Willets? What about someone else? C'mon, you minor league guys, give us some names.

Phhhl
04-20-2008, 01:09 AM
CP doesn't play against lefties and we need someone in there who is going to play pretty much every day. I love his defense but if he's not going to play 20% of the time, what good is that defense? I think benching CP against Sheets was telling. Incidentally I heard Marty ask Dusty about that before Friday's game. Dusty said something to the effect of, "We need someone to get on base." Dusty may not worship at the altar of OBP but he wants guys in the lineup who can hit. That's why we are seeing Keppinger at SS instead of Castro. As long as Dusty is manager, CP is going to have to hit to stay in that lineup.

I agree. We don't have a true leadoff hitter in the sense of a .280-.300 hitter who can steal 40-50 bases a year and play great defense. That's what Dusty wants. The only guy that really fits that criteria is Brandon Phillips and he has too much power to hit leadoff in Dustyland.

So where does that leave us? Obviously if that person isn't inside the organization, they have to be on another team now. What about that guy in the Angels system, Reggie Willets? What about someone else? C'mon, you minor league guys, give us some names.

You're knocking yourself out for nothing. The man's name is Jay Bruce. It HAS to be done. The season will probably be lost without him.

KronoRed
04-20-2008, 01:17 AM
Willits is barely playing for the Anegels and would solve the leadoff problem for the next 5 years, would also keep Bruce out of the leadoff spot.

AtomicDumpling
04-20-2008, 01:33 AM
1.Votto
2.Keppinger
3.Dunn
4.Phillips
5.Griffey
6.Encarnacion
7.Bruce/Patterson
8.Ross/Bako
9.Pitcher

Perfect lefty/righty balance all the way down.

Makes sure the best hitters get the most plate appearances.

Get the high-OBP guys at the top.

Lets Bruce ease his way into the lineup and earn his way to the top.

Gives Dunn some much-needed protection so he will see better pitches.

Griffey may object to hitting 5th but I don't care. He can be a loser hitting 3rd or take a shot at winning hitting 5th.

Chip R
04-20-2008, 01:47 AM
1.Votto
2.Keppinger
3.Dunn
4.Phillips
5.Griffey
6.Encarnacion
7.Bruce/Patterson
8.Ross/Bako
9.Pitcher

Perfect lefty/righty balance all the way down.

Makes sure the best hitters get the most plate appearances.

Get the high-OBP guys at the top.



Ideally, that's the best solution - although not necessarily that lineup. But, again, we have to remember who the manager is. Dusty's about as likely to bat Votto leadoff as he is to stop saying, "Dude". He's going to want that prototypical 1960s-1970s leadoff hitter at the top of the lineup. Unless Patterson starts hitting, that person is not on this team and is not in this organization. I hope Jay Bruce will be a fine MLB player but batting him leadoff is not in his long-term future. Especially for someone who has not faced major league pitching outside spring training.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 02:15 AM
The Reds really don't have a leadoff per your criteria.

If walks were counted as singles I would have to use Dunn because he gets on base more than the rest, with the lone exception of Keppinger who is tied with him I believe.

If walks were singles BA
Dunn - .424
Bako - .404
Keppinger - .378
Encarcion - .378
Griffey - .377
Phillips - .343
Votto - .333
Freel - .300
Hopper - .296
Patterson - .263

HumnHilghtFreel
04-20-2008, 02:25 AM
Willits is barely playing for the Anegels and would solve the leadoff problem for the next 5 years, would also keep Bruce out of the leadoff spot.

Not a bad idea. I don't know what his glove is like, but from what I've seen out of him, he's been very good at the plate in the leadoff role, keeping around a .400 OBP in 476 MLB at bats.

Minors #'s
.410 OBP in rookie ball
.373 in high A
.377 in AA
.448 in AAA

I like this idea a lot after looking at all that. He fills the Dusty "speed criteria" and he's a legit on base guy. I wonder what it would take to grab him from them?

WVRedsFan
04-20-2008, 02:35 AM
The club's problem right now is the following:

--Patterson makes an out after three pitches
--Keppinger gets a single or a double
--Griffey gets nothing to hit and makes an out
--Phillips hits the first pitch on a line to the shortstop - 2 out
--Dunn walks
--Edwin hits the second pitch and pops out to the left firlder.

A total of 21 pitches and we leave 2 on base and lead off he second with the bottom of the order. It drives me nuts. If the leadoff guy gets on base and the pitcher has to work from the stretch, it changes everything. keppinger's hit moves the leadoff hitter over. Griffey gets something to hit. Phillips will be Phillips, but he likely gets something going.

the leadoff hitter is the key and so far, he's not getting on base.

pahster
04-20-2008, 09:57 AM
Willits is barely playing for the Anegels and would solve the leadoff problem for the next 5 years, would also keep Bruce out of the leadoff spot.

WANT.

membengal
04-20-2008, 10:00 AM
Atomic Dumpling all over it, in my opinion. That's what I would do (assuming no trade for someone helpful like Willits).

As for whether Dusty will think out of the box, chip, I tend to agree with you, but perhaps the team's lingering and obvious offensive woes will force him to make some previously unthinkable (for him) adjustments.

RedlegJake
04-20-2008, 10:26 AM
I enjoy reading these lineups. Some good ideas. Of course we're just chatting amongst ourselves since Dusty is the manager. Something has to give. Even with Dusty at some point.

Far East
04-20-2008, 11:54 AM
If walks were singles BA
Dunn - .424
Bako - .404
Keppinger - .378
Encarcion - .378
Griffey - .377
Phillips - .343
Votto - .333
Freel - .300
Hopper - .296
Patterson - .263

Keppinger - .378
Dunn - .424
Encarnacion - .378
Griffey - .377
Phillips - .343
Votto - .333
Pitcher - .???
Bako - .404

1. R-L-R balance throughout
2. Kepp on base would neutralize the extreme shift against Dunn
3. Pitcher can sac bunt with a decent base runner ahead of him
4. After the pitcher comes a fair OBP guy to transition back into the top of the order.
5. The best OBP guys (excluding Bako) get the most AB

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 12:02 PM
Keppinger - .378
Dunn - .424
Encarnacion - .378
Griffey - .377
Phillips - .343
Votto - .333
Pitcher - .???
Bako - .404

1. R-L-R balance throughout
2. Kepp on base would neutralize the extreme shift against Dunn
3. Pitcher can sac bunt with a decent base runner ahead of him
4. After the pitcher comes a fair OBP guy to transition back into the top of the order.
5. The best OBP guys (excluding Bako) get the most AB

Good points.
I like that, it is interesting and inventive. I think it would produce.

WebScorpion
04-21-2008, 03:00 PM
IMHO, the primary attribute for a leadoff hitter is OBP, secondary is the ability and willingness to take a lot of pitches, and tertiary is baserunning/stealling ability. In the current lineup there are only 3 players with an OBP over .350...Keppinger, Bako, Dunn, and Encarnacion. Of those, Dunn, Kepp, and EE are the only ones with career numbers over .350. I'd bat them like this:

Keppinger
Dunn
Encarnacion
Griffey
Phillips
Votto
Bako
Pitcher
Patterson

I know, I know, it would look like we're copying Larussa, but Patterson is exactly the type who could work in that 9-hole instead of the pitcher scenario. His OBP is low, so there is really no advantage to giving him extra at-bats, (top of the order,) but he still can steal a base and is disruptive when he DOES get on, so it's nice to have him on in front of the big boppers.
http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/ad/twocents.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

CaiGuy
04-21-2008, 03:11 PM
I would like:

Votto
Encarnation
Dunn
Griffey
Keppinger
Phillips
Patterson
Catcher
Pitcher

A somewhat more Dusty-friendly but nice lineup:

Votto
Keppinger
Griffey
Dunn
Phillips
Encarnation
Patterson
Cather
Pitcher

And my wacky lineup (I really think that the lineup projection systems would love this)
I seriously would like to see this:
Dunn
Encarnation
Griffey
Keppinger
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Ross
P


So to answer the thread, I see Votto as the next best choice for leadoff. He gets on base and he isn't pokey (he stole a few bases in the high minors).

Tom Servo
04-21-2008, 03:21 PM
Bako!

Kc61
04-21-2008, 03:27 PM
Anyone notice that Votto has zero walks this year? Zero. His OBP is below .300. He is young and will improve, but he's not a leadoff hitter for this team.

Keppinger must be the leadoff hitter on this team. He is the best hitter on the team right now, except from a power perspective. High OBP, high average. Get him on base early and often, and more runs will score.

Normally I don't like Dunn at #2 because it emphasizes his walks and not his power. But nobody will pitch to Dunn this year. So put him at 2 ahead of Griffey and maybe he gets something to hit.

So I start with Kepp, Dunn, Griffey. Then, at the fourth spot, I put the hottest guy available. Right now, EE is hot so it's him.

Phillips and Patterson should be lower in the lineup. Patterson has only struck out four times so I think his bat will come around. Some bad luck. But he's still not a leadoff hitter.

Phillips needs to stop trying to hit balls into orbit. He will get back on track once he adjusts. Until then, he's a fifth or sixth place hitter. Put him sixth to break up the lefties.

So where I come out is Kepp, Dunn, Griffey, EE (while hot), Votto, Phillips (while cold), Patterson, Bako, pitcher.

And the pitcher hits ninth. You only hit the pitcher 8th if you think your pinch hitters are better than your ninth place position player. The Reds don't have great pinch hitters so I don't hit the pitcher 8th.

TRF
04-21-2008, 04:02 PM
Anyone notice that Votto has zero walks this year? Zero. His OBP is below .300. He is young and will improve, but he's not a leadoff hitter for this team.

Keppinger must be the leadoff hitter on this team. He is the best hitter on the team right now, except from a power perspective. High OBP, high average. Get him on base early and often, and more runs will score.

Normally I don't like Dunn at #2 because it emphasizes his walks and not his power. But nobody will pitch to Dunn this year. So put him at 2 ahead of Griffey and maybe he gets something to hit.

So I start with Kepp, Dunn, Griffey. Then, at the fourth spot, I put the hottest guy available. Right now, EE is hot so it's him.

Phillips and Patterson should be lower in the lineup. Patterson has only struck out four times so I think his bat will come around. Some bad luck. But he's still not a leadoff hitter.

Phillips needs to stop trying to hit balls into orbit. He will get back on track once he adjusts. Until then, he's a fifth or sixth place hitter. Put him sixth to break up the lefties.

So where I come out is Kepp, Dunn, Griffey, EE (while hot), Votto, Phillips (while cold), Patterson, Bako, pitcher.

And the pitcher hits ninth. You only hit the pitcher 8th if you think your pinch hitters are better than your ninth place position player. The Reds don't have great pinch hitters so I don't hit the pitcher 8th.

That's the exact same lineup I had in another thread. Dunn will see a ton of fastballs in the #2 spot with Jr. and the currently white hot EE following. Votto while not walking IS hitting, so boom, he's the #5 hitter. The rest slot just as you have it.

Of course, it'll never happen.

WVRedsFan
04-21-2008, 04:04 PM
Bako!

Well...he is having a career year :)

coachw513
04-21-2008, 04:55 PM
Vs LH:
Keppinger
Encarnacion
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Patterson
Votto
Ross
P

Vs RH:
Keppinger
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Votto
Bruce
Bako
P

TRF
04-21-2008, 05:02 PM
Vs LH:
Keppinger
Encarnacion
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Patterson
Votto
Ross
P

Vs RH:
Keppinger
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Votto
Bruce
Bako
P

I'm not sure the rules allow Votto batting twice like that. :)