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OnBaseMachine
04-19-2008, 11:52 PM
-Ship out one of Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper and call up Jerry Hairston Jr. from Louisville. Hairston is not exactly a savior but he's hitting .404/.436/.712 and could provide an upgrade to Freel or Hopper. Also, I'd phone Reggie Sanders and see if he has any interest in returning to Cincinnati as a 4th outfielder. If so, he takes the place of Hairston.

-Call up Jay Bruce and insert him into the lineup as the everyday center fielder. I keep Patterson around as a defensive replacement and bat off the bench.

-Send Todd Coffey to Louisville and bring up Bill Bray. Bray has been dominant in Louisville - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K. I think he's ready to step his game up and become a very good reliever.

-Place David Weathers on the disabled list and call up RHP Josh Roenicke from Chattanooga. Roenicke pitched strong in spring training and is off to a good start in Chattanooga. He, along with Cordero and Burton give the Reds some heat in the back of the bullpen.

Reggie Sanders can still hit lefties and provides some 'pop' off the bench. The addition of Bruce to the lineup adds power and in the meantime strengthens the bench with Patterson now the 4th/5th outfielder. Bray and Roenicke have great arms and could help the bullpen tremendously.

redsfaninbsg
04-19-2008, 11:55 PM
Agreed, I'm really afraid they aren't going to do anything until it is to late to matter.

Reds Fanatic
04-19-2008, 11:57 PM
I absolutely agree the time is now to bring Bruce up here. After today's game Patterson is now in a 1 for 25 slump. The offense is not working at all and a big part of that is the leadoff hitter is basically an automatic out right now.

WVRedsFan
04-20-2008, 12:33 AM
-Ship out one of Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper and call up Jerry Hairston Jr. from Louisville. Hairston is not exactly a savior but he's hitting .404/.436/.712 and could provide an upgrade to Freel or Hopper.I totally agree. Although I'm no Hopper fan, I'd rather have him than Freel for not only economic reasons, but alsothe skill set.


Also, I'd phone Reggie Sanders and see if he has any interest in returning to Cincinnati as a 4th outfielder. If so, he takes the place of Hairston. I'm not sure I want another octagarian on this team. Let's go with the kids.


-Call up Jay Bruce and insert him into the lineup as the everyday center fielder. I keep Patterson around as a defensive replacement and bat off the bench. Absolutely. He's proven all he needs to prove at AAA. Unfortunately, I don't think it will happen. Wayne is cautious to a fault.


-Send Todd Coffey to Louisville and bring up Bill Bray. Bray has been dominant in Louisville - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K. I think he's ready to step his game up and become a very good reliever. I'm no Bray fan, but I agree. Although Todd pitched fairly well on Friday, he's just not going to help us now. Bray might.


-Place David Weathers on the disabled list and call up RHP Josh Roenicke from Chattanooga. Roenicke pitched strong in spring training and is off to a good start in Chattanooga. He, along with Cordero and Burton give the Reds some heat in the back of the bullpen. I don't if they'll place Weathers on the DL, but I'm fairly certain that Roenicke will have to spend some time in AAA before they bring him up.

Pitching is not the problem and only a little tweaking is needed, but the offense is killing this team. With only 68 hits in the last eight games (11 of which came in one game) to go along with averaging about 3 runs a game means you need offense. We can live with our pitching right now. We need to score runs!

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 01:38 AM
I agree with OBM on the majority, just not on Sanders.

Does Hopper have any options left? If he does I can't see any reason why Bruce couldn't trade places with Hopper and find ample playing time on this squad as Bruce can play all the outfield positions.

mth123
04-20-2008, 04:38 AM
Castro DFA. Hopper to AAA. Weathers and Arroyo to DL.

Bruce, Hairston and Bray recalled, Belisle activated.

Not the ideal line-up, but probably the best one that Dusty may consider.

Keppinger SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Griffey RF
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Bruce CF
Bako C

the bench

Hairston RHPH, can play anywhere in the IF or OF.
Hatteberg LHPH, 1B
Freel RHPH, PR, CF and Lead-off versus lefties. Can play all 3 OF spots, 2B and 3B.
Javy C, LHPH can hit RH if needed.
Patterson. LHPH, PR, Designated Bunter, Defensive CF with Bruce moving to RF late in games.

The Rotation

Harang
Volquez
Belisle
Cueto
Fogg

the Pen

Cordero CL
Lincoln 8th
Bray LH
Affeldt LH
Mercker RH
Burton RH
Coffey Mop-up.

Hopefully Weathers and Arroyo can regain their form with 15 days of rest. Arroyo needs a rehab start or two to get it together then Fogg goes to the pen and probbly Coffey down to AAA. If Weathers can come back strong, I'd sy Burton is the next guy on the bubble, though Bray doing well is not a given IMO and the DL

Hairston is really hot and may help off the bench immediately, though I'd suspect that he'll be back to his .200 hitting ways before long. The team still needs to be looking for ways to add a RH Corner bat with pop that can PH and play when Griffey, Dunn or Votto sits. A better catcher would help too. Ross isn't it. A reliever or two (Coffey if he can pitch well a few more times??) coupled with some combination of Freel, Hatte, Hopper and minor leaguers like McBeth, Maloney and maybe even Thompson would be my primary trade bait. If Gonzo appears like he may actually play soon, I'd deal EdE if they Reds could get a good return that would fix the fit. Keppinger could play 3B and lead-off every day that way.

WVRed
04-20-2008, 06:26 AM
If Arroyo hits the DL, they should give Homer another chance. He has been lights out in AAA.

Just sayin'.

GAC
04-20-2008, 07:12 AM
You mean HGH Jerry Hairston Jr? You'll have to lay off the Cardinal player then if they do OBM. But looking at his numbers, I could see it was an act of pure desperation on his part. :lol:

How could he help this team, regardless of what he is currently doing at AAA? He's just another ex-Cub OFer with very mediocre numbers (3 yr seasonal avg).....

.231 BA .301 OB% .323 SLG% .624 OPS (.576 vs lefties).

They are not going to recall Bruce (waste options) unless he is playing everyday. And I agree with that position.

Send Hopper and/or Freel out where? They've been trying to trade Freel, but with no luck (thanks to that contract). Players like these are a dime a dozen IMO. If your objective is to open up roster spots because it's holding someone behind them back, then fine, DFA Freel and eat that contract. But these are role/bench players to begin with. Who are they holding back? And I don't want them DFAing these guys just to bring up a Bruce to sit the bench and get limited ABs. That doesn't help a 21 yr old at all.

The problem with this team is not Freel, Hooper, and even dreaded Castro, sitting on this bench. It's not even the pitching, especially the bullpen....


ERA WHIP DIP% BAA OB% OPS SO BB
starters 4.32 1.24 103 .241 .309 .739 144 56
relievers 3.81 1.25 108 .233 .310 .681 51 24

And one can thank Fogg for his contribution to those starter's numbers. He is now in the BP. I hope the next move is out the door once Belisle comes back on Monday. And I'll take Bray in the BP over Fogg. IMO, Arroyo is not hurt. He is simply being typical "April" Arroyo as far as I'm concerned. He was 0-2 last April in 5 starts. He was traded for/signed to be a starter by the Reds as an act of desperation (need) at that position. IMO, and I think Boston knew this, his proper role is in long relief/bullpen.

This offense has come out of the gate in a season beginning funk. Period. This team is probably not as good as many thought they were going into this season (due to optimism), regardless of the moves/trades they made.... and they aren't, IMHO, as bad as they are currently playing. They are 7-11 with 11 games left to play in April. And 7 of those 11 remaining games are against teams (Astros, Dodgers, Giants) who are currently struggling as bad as we are. We end April vs the Cards.

So if we can come out of April anywhere near a .500 team then I'm not going to panic or try to make major moves.

Where do I assess any blame (finger pointing) at this stage of the season?

#1 - I fault key players whom we normally rely on. We have a team SLG% of .386.

Look at these numbers with RISP....


BA OB% SLG% OPS
Dunn .167 .353 .167 .520
Griffey .200 .350 .467 .817
Encarnacion .308 .500 .538 1.038
Phillips .375 .444 .625 1.069
Votto .400 .400 .900 1.300

Who is the "guilty" culprit for the most part?

Do we believe that Adam Dunn is going to continue to perform at this level? I personally don't. Which brings me to point #2 as to why this team is struggling...

Dusty Baker

He is portrayed as being an "old school" manager. But I'm considered old school too, as well as several other old timers on this forum. And I think I can speak for all of us when I say that we have always firmly believed that the top of your order is to manned by guys who have proven to be able to consistently get on base (table setters). That is not a philosophy that has been recently discovered or unearthed; but someone needs to email this news to Dusty.

A "typical" Baker lineup is (with OB% included)....

Patterson .263
Keppinger .387
Griffey .357
Phillips .333
Dunn .433
EE .364
Votto .326
Bako/Valentin .380/.273

IMHO - Dusty Baker does not construct his lineup to maximize (get the most out of) his payers. Yes, Adam is struggling; but Baker is is not helping Dunn right now batting him 5th. He leads the team in OB%, and MLB in BBs (20). The guy continues to prove he gets on base. He is not going to see the quality of pitches in the #5 spot. Why wouldn't a pitcher pitch around him (or cautiously)? Put him at #2.

I also think EE needs to put in the lineup where he sees more quality pitches.

I like Keppinger in the leadoff spot. From a hitting standpoint (style), he reminds me a lot of Rose. Pete had a career OB% of .375 which was primarily BA-driven. He averaged around 70 BBs/season. Pete could hit. So can Keppinger.

Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Patterson
Bako/Valentin

mth123
04-20-2008, 08:41 AM
I don't know GAC. This team has been in a position several times already this year where a PH was needed and a big hit would have made the difference. The bench options at Dusty's disposal are Castro (among the worst hitters of all time and now has no range on defense either), Hopper (can't hit the ball out of the IF), Freel (best choice right now and he is at least a full season removed from being effective), Hatteberg (completely neutralized by a LHP) and Javy (the back-up catcher who is also neutralized by LHP). Hopper has options and doesn't add anything to this team that they can't already get from Freel or Patterson. Patterson is in a huge slump and needs to be benched but the roster has no better on hand alternatives. I say Bruce comes up and plays CF (fortifying the line-up), Patterson to the bench to play Hopper's role (with better defense, more speed, more power and just as good at small ball when he wants to be) and Hairston comes up to be the RH hitter for now while he is hot. Hairston has been getting starts at SS and can play there if necessary. If Keppinger gets hurt and is going to miss significant time, the Reds can recall Janish. He would be better defensively than Castro and probably no worse on offense.

There is really no reason for Castro or Hopper to be on this team as its currently constructed. Hopper has some skill that can be called on in a pinch and can be stashed at AAA in case he's needed. Castro is of no value and DFA is the right move. If somebody wants him that is even better. That would stop the team from actually playing him ever again. Its obvious that Dusty only turns to Hopper or Castro when he has no other alternative. I say give him better alternatives. I do think Hairston won't be much better in the long run, but lets use him while he's hot and look for a better long term fix.

If Patterson gets hot again, Bruce can be sent back down if he doesn't grab the job permanently. Bruce hasn't used any options yet and I seriously doubt that he'll need to use all of his. If he's not in the line-up in three years (when his options would expire) then this team has huge problems and Bruce being out of options won't matter much.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 08:50 AM
They are not going to recall Bruce (waste options) unless he is playing everyday. And I agree with that position.

Who are they holding back? And I don't want them DFAing these guys just to bring up a Bruce to sit the bench and get limited ABs. That doesn't help a 21 yr old at all.

This offense has come out of the gate in a season beginning funk. Period.

#1 - I fault key players whom we normally rely on. We have a team SLG% of .386.

Look at these numbers with RISP....


BA OB% SLG% OPS
Dunn .167 .353 .167 .520
Griffey .200 .350 .467 .817
Encarnacion .308 .500 .538 1.038
Phillips .375 .444 .625 1.069
Votto .400 .400 .900 1.300


Dusty Baker


A "typical" Baker lineup is (with OB% included)....

Patterson .263
Keppinger .387
Griffey .357
Phillips .333
Dunn .433
EE .364
Votto .326
Bako/Valentin .380/.273

IMHO - Dusty Baker does not construct his lineup to maximize (get the most out of) his payers.

Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Patterson
Bako/Valentin

I wouldn't hold back Votto because of a veteran first baseman and because Votto bats left handed. So I don't see any sense in holding back Bruce just because he is 21 and bats left handed over the likes of Corey Patterson, Hopper and Freel.

I have to think that Bruce hits as well as Votto throughout the levels and that Bruce would hit as well or better than Votto at this level.

How much value does Patterson bring with his glove and bat over Bruce with his bat and glove? I don't think Patterson has any value over Bruce. We lived with a high risk Hamilton last year in center and at the plate and it turned out just fine, at least when Hamilton was healthy, I believe that it would turn out just fine with Bruce also.

I think that your discussion regarding offensive funk, the OB% and RISP
supporting data, along with Dusty having room to make out lineups that do not present the players the best chance to perform well makes a case for biting the bullet and getting Bruce up here.

As long as Dusty has junk to tinker with, he will. I believe that Bruce, like Votto is, would force Dusty to play him.

Isn't Bruce a better all round player than Votto anyway? Then why would Bruce fail at this level automatically just because he is younger and bats left handed?

Start Bruce and forget about Patterson, Hopper and Freel.

Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Bruce /Patterson
Bako/Valentin

Bruce as a number 7 hitter over Patterson looks low risk to me.

Risk ? Worry ? Concerns ?

When Phillips came who knew what was coming besides a DFA second baseman allegedly with an attitude and a love for swinging for the fences?

When Hamilton came who knew what was coming after such a long layoff from a right fielder that could hit in the lower levels and never above A ball? Thrust into center field??

What was Freel or Hopper for that matter and they performed alright at their ability levels.

What was Patterson before he came here with his history, yet we accept him over Bruce?

Who and what was Keppinger, a part-time backup that might be able to sustain some hitting ability at this level, but who knew?

Something is wrong with this picture of holding Bruce back just because of his age and center field.

Stero-typing and the same old paradigm of thinking is the only thing holding Bruce back in my mind. It didn't seem to hold back the long list above, why Bruce?

mth123
04-20-2008, 08:55 AM
If Arroyo hits the DL, they should give Homer another chance. He has been lights out in AAA.

Just sayin'.

Homer is a project that has gone back to square one to regain his command. Now that he has seemingly improved in that area he needs to regain his bat missing ability while retaining that command and pitch efficiency. He also is a kid that hasn't really had a year as a full time starter with lots of IP (140 or so being his tops in 2006). At age 21 with his light workload history, I'd guess he would be a huge injury risk on a team that may need to overuse him from time to time in a penant chase. I also think that having a rotation with three kids like Volquez, Cueto and Homer all breaking in at once, puts all of them at risk. I'd rather leave Fogg in there and let Dusty abuse him if need be.

I don't think that Homer belongs in a big league rotation this year no matter how effective he may be. The only way I would do that is if the team was out of the race and could insulate him from overuse by having a few journeymen vets at the ready who could come in (and probably get hammered) while eating the innings that the team would be asking of its starters if it were trying to win. IMO Fogg is a better short term alternative for a couple weeks while Arroyo regroups.

RedlegJake
04-20-2008, 09:03 AM
You mean HGH Jerry Hairston Jr? You'll have to lay off the Cardinal player then if they do OBM. But looking at his numbers, I could see it was an act of pure desperation on his part. :lol:

How could he help this team, regardless of what he is currently doing at AAA? He's just another ex-Cub OFer with very mediocre numbers (3 yr seasonal avg).....

.231 BA .301 OB% .323 SLG% .624 OPS (.576 vs lefties).

Hairston>Castro. Other than that I completely agree with you. Despite Hairston's AAA numbers he is not going to have that success in Cincy. As amove to replace Castro, okay. Expecting him to make a material difference is ignoring history.


They are not going to recall Bruce (waste options) unless he is playing everyday. And I agree with that position.

I agree Bruce must play every day but why not? CF with CP as the 4th OFer. That beats the crap out of Norris as 4th OFer. At he very least you get great defense and the chance of some pop. Jay can also play left and right as he's ben doing in AAA, letting Junior and Dunn have a day off(esp Junior). It might even get Dusty to hit CP in the 8th hole when he does play. Then Bruce leading off and CP 8th has 2 guys batting in spots that actually make sense. Of course I'm beginning to believe Dusty would bat them exactly the reverse just to screw things up.


Send Hopper and/or Freel out where? They've been trying to trade Freel, but with no luck (thanks to that contract). Players like these are a dime a dozen IMO. If your objective is to open up roster spots because it's holding someone behind them back, then fine, DFA Freel and eat that contract. But these are role/bench players to begin with. Who are they holding back? And I don't want them DFAing these guys just to bring up a Bruce to sit the bench and get limited ABs. That doesn't help a 21 yr old at all.

Send Norris to AAA. Let Freel stay as the 5th OFer, and emergency b/u at 3rd and Phillips b/u at 2nd. Bruce plays 90% of the time.


The problem with this team is not Freel, Hooper, and even dreaded Castro, sitting on this bench. It's not even the pitching, especially the bullpen....


ERA WHIP DIP% BAA OB% OPS SO BB
starters 4.32 1.24 103 .241 .309 .739 144 56
relievers 3.81 1.25 108 .233 .310 .681 51 24

And one can thank Fogg for his contribution to those starter's numbers. He is now in the BP. I hope the next move is out the door once Belisle comes back on Monday. And I'll take Bray in the BP over Fogg. IMO, Arroyo is not hurt. He is simply being typical "April" Arroyo as far as I'm concerned. He was 0-2 last April in 5 starts. He was traded for/signed to be a starter by the Reds as an act of desperation (need) at that position. IMO, and I think Boston knew this, his proper role is in long relief/bullpen.

Thank you. I get tired of reading posts ripping the pen and pitchers, especially Arroyo. They are NOT this team's problem. If your offense digs the pitchers a hole night after blooming night by not scoring and the pitchers keep the team in it, keep the team in a position where 4 or 5 runs would win - then guess what people? IT's not the freakin' pitching staff!!!!!!!!! Arroyo is NOT done. He has pitched his normal April mediocre but still good enough to have kept the Reds in games if the offense had just scored an average amount of runs in his starts. Last time out? Well, any time Arroyo against the Brewers offense matches up with Ben Sheets against the Reds offense it's not looking good. What do you want from him?


This offense has come out of the gate in a season beginning funk. Period. This team is probably not as good as many thought they were going into this season (due to optimism), regardless of the moves/trades they made.... and they aren't, IMHO, as bad as they are currently playing. They are 7-11 with 11 games left to play in April. And 7 of those 11 remaining games are against teams (Astros, Dodgers, Giants) who are currently struggling as bad as we are. We end April vs the Cards.

So if we can come out of April anywhere near a .500 team then I'm not going to panic or try to make major moves.

Agreed. The immense frustration and angst shown on the board, which I feel as keenly as anyone, is the product of an upswelling of optimism this winter which has been compounded by the Super Mario Brothers performances. You can see the seeds of greatness in this rotation. Harang-Volquez-Cueto-Arroyo-Bailey. And years of great to good offenses had most of us looking away from the real weakness. Some astute posters warned the offense would be weak. I thought it would be average -I still do. It's April 20th, not September 20th. I agree GAC, if the Reds stay close to .500 by the end of April they can still make a move. In fact, it reminds me that befiore the season started I looked at the schedule and thought exactly that - with a tough schedule starting out I thought if we stay around .500 through that rough stretch then we go. That 6-4 start got me all excited. Except nothing changed from my original perception.


Where do I assess any blame (finger pointing) at this stage of the season?

#1 - I fault key players whom we normally rely on. We have a team SLG% of .386.

Look at these numbers with RISP....


BA OB% SLG% OPS
Dunn .167 .353 .167 .520
Griffey .200 .350 .467 .817
Encarnacion .308 .500 .538 1.038
Phillips .375 .444 .625 1.069
Votto .400 .400 .900 1.300

Who is the "guilty" culprit for the most part?

Do we believe that Adam Dunn is going to continue to perform at this level? I personally don't.

Dunn, Junior, EE. Three key bats. The straws that stir the drink so to speak. Dunn looks horrible when he swings the bat. What he hits are mostly fouls, but he still has his eye and he'll lock in sometime. Junior and EE are strting to heat up - in fact the last couple weks they've looked good. Voto is hitting. BP is hitting. That brings me to your next point GAC...


Which brings me to point #2 as to why this team is struggling...

Dusty Baker

He is portrayed as being an "old school" manager. But I'm considered old school too, as well as several other old timers on this forum. And I think I can speak for all of us when I say that we have always firmly believed that the top of your order is to manned by guys who have proven to be able to consistently get on base (table setters). That is not a philosophy that has been recently discovered or unearthed; but someone needs to email this news to Dusty.

A "typical" Baker lineup is (with OB% included)....

Patterson .263
Keppinger .387
Griffey .357
Phillips .333
Dunn .433
EE .364
Votto .326
Bako/Valentin .380/.273

IMHO - Dusty Baker does not construct his lineup to maximize (get the most out of) his payers. Yes, Adam is struggling; but Baker is is not helping Dunn right now batting him 5th. He leads the team in OB%, and MLB in BBs (20). The guy continues to prove he gets on base. He is not going to see the quality of pitches in the #5 spot. Why wouldn't a pitcher pitch around him (or cautiously)? Put him at #2.

I also think EE needs to put in the lineup where he sees more quality pitches.

I like Keppinger in the leadoff spot. From a hitting standpoint (style), he reminds me a lot of Rose. Pete had a career OB% of .375 which was primarily BA-driven. He averaged around 70 BBs/season. Pete could hit. So can Keppinger.

Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Patterson
Bako/Valentin

I completely agree. One of a manager's jobs is to maximize his players talents. When it comes to the lineups, Dusty has flat failed, imo. He's handled the pitcher's pretty well, he seems to handle the clubhouse well, and I like having aset lineup. But -note to Dusty: It needs to be the right lineup, my man.

Kc61
04-20-2008, 09:09 AM
1. The bench needs right handed hitters. Hairston, Cabrera, somebody needs to come up. But if fans think this is the major problem, I disagree.

2. Agree that Bruce should be up soon, but probably it's too early. He's down at AAA for seasoning, let him stay for awhile longer. Maybe Memorial Day. Patterson is in a terrible slump, should be dropped to lower in the batting order.

3. Mainly, the Reds need to start re-tooling the starting 8 position players. To me, Keppinger and Votto are keepers, apparently very good all around hitters (Votto with power). Bruce, I think, will be another. There is a need for a top notch all around right handed bat (a Derrick Lee type). The current lineup has too many inconsistent hitters prone to long slumps. It's been that way for several years.

4. On the pitching side, Arroyo has to be watched carefully. Wouldn't do anything yet, but he hasn't been the same pitcher since 2006. Happy with the pen, although Weathers needs to show he still has it.

membengal
04-20-2008, 09:12 AM
WK has to fix the bench issue. It really is unacceptable, and everyone knew that going in. Whatever he does to jettison one of Freel/Hopper, cut Castro, and (if it were me), lose Valentin, well, that would be the moves to make.

There are plenty of good bats kicking around baseball that would help deepen this team. WK needs to be on the phone making calls. Now. In the short term, I would def try to at least address the issue from AAA, as others have laid out above.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 09:50 AM
I don't know GAC.

I don't know him either. :) Just kidding



Hopper has options and doesn't add anything to this team that they can't already get from Freel or Patterson. Patterson is in a huge slump and needs to be benched but the roster has no better on hand alternatives.

I say Bruce comes up and plays CF (fortifying the line-up), Patterson to the bench to play Hopper's role (with better defense, more speed, more power and just as good at small ball when he wants to be).

There is really no reason for Castro or Hopper to be on this team as its currently constructed.

If Patterson gets hot again, Bruce can be sent back down if he doesn't grab the job permanently.

:clap::clap: You seem to have a good grasp on the reality.

Bruce would grab the job and would be getting good experience to carry forward next year. Who on the Reds team already doesn't have to work on their game fielding or hitting daily, so it would be nothing then for Bruce to have to do the same here, especially when he is already projects to be better than most of the Reds players.

boognish
04-20-2008, 12:10 PM
Hopper brings nothing to the team. His routes in the OF make Freel look like a gold glover. His speed isn't much better than average, as shown by his historically below average stolen base rates. He has no power to speak of, and Freel can do everything Hopper can as well as passably playing two infield positions.

I still don't understand why everyone associated with the Reds loves Hopper so much (especially the Brennamans). He is a AAA player. Having him available just adds the possibility of stupidity, and true to form Baker has double switched him into the game for Dunn on multiple occasions. I'd rather go back to the Narronian rosters of 12 pitchers and 3 catchers, and I couldn't stand those. Hopper on the major league roster is more conducive to losing than winning.

This bench is an out-and-out embarrassment, and I won't start on Castro. :)

*BaseClogger*
04-20-2008, 01:14 PM
Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Patterson
Bako/Valentin

:thumbup:

Spring~Fields
04-20-2008, 03:28 PM
They are not going to recall Bruce (waste options) unless he is playing everyday. And I agree with that position.

Who are they holding back? And I don't want them DFAing these guys just to bring up a Bruce to sit the bench and get limited ABs. That doesn't help a 21 yr old at all.

Keppinger
Dunn
EE
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
Bruce/ Patterson
Bako/Valentin



Votto Lou
.294 .381 .478 .859
Jay Bruce Lou 2007
.305 .358 .567 .925
Jay Bruce Lou 2008
.323 .344 .548 .892
Votto Chat
.319 .408 .547 .955
Bruce Chat
.333 .405 .652 1.057
Votto SAR
.256 .330 .425 .755
Bruce Sar
.325 .379 .586 .965

According to minor league sources online
Jay Bruce
Some speed and can hold his own in center, a position he's played frequently in the Minors. Profiles as an elite right-fielder who'll hit for average and power while stopping runners from taking the extra base with his arm.

Jay Bruce ranked #1 Votto #34

I feel confident that Bruce via comparison to Votto and other information is ready for centerfield with the Reds over what the Reds currently have in Freel, Hopper and Patterson.

Caveat Emperor
04-20-2008, 03:30 PM
Bruce is raking in Louisville -- but his inability to walk really continues to concern me.

reds44
04-20-2008, 03:33 PM
These just seem like moves that are blatantly obvious to make.

Weathers to DL with Belisle coming up was one that happend already.

Hairston up and Castro DFA couldn't get anymore obvious.
Bruce up and Hopper to AAA/Freel DFA (take your pick)
Bray up and Fogg DFA/Coffey to AAA (take your pick)

Votto/Bruce
Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
Phillips/Encarnacion
Bruce/Votto
Encarnacion/Phillips
Bako

Kc61
04-20-2008, 03:33 PM
Hopper brings nothing to the team. His routes in the OF make Freel look like a gold glover. His speed isn't much better than average, as shown by his historically below average stolen base rates. He has no power to speak of, and Freel can do everything Hopper can as well as passably playing two infield positions.


This bench is an out-and-out embarrassment, and I won't start on Castro. :)


Hopper and Castro haven't played today and the Reds have one run on 4 hits. Hopper and Castro combined have 35 at bats in the Reds 19 games this year. The issue isn't Hopper. And it isn't Castro. These guys hardly ever play.

The issue is the guys who do play.

corkedbat
04-20-2008, 04:22 PM
These just seem like moves that are blatantly obvious to make.

Weathers to DL with Belisle coming up was one that happend already.

Hairston up and Castro DFA couldn't get anymore obvious.
Bruce up and Hopper to AAA/Freel DFA (take your pick)
Bray up and Fogg DFA/Coffey to AAA (take your pick)

Votto/Bruce
Keppinger
Dunn
Griffey
Phillips/Encarnacion
Bruce/Votto
Encarnacion/Phillips
Bako

I'd go:

SS Keppinger
1B Votto
RF Griffey
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
3B Encarnacion
CF Bruce
C Bako (Ross)

GAC
04-20-2008, 09:35 PM
Thanks for the numerous responses to my post gentlemen.

If they bring Bruce up and Dusty gives him the starting CF job and lets him play every day without jerking the kid in and out of the lineup, then I am all for that.

I just don't want the kid brought up in a platoon role with Patterson where he is spending a lot of time on the bench. Make Patterson the sub off the bench.

They could DFA Castro and Freel tomorrow and I wouldn't care. I might even do a little jig in celebration. But the burden of why this team has struggled in the early stages of the season is due to those few key players I mentioned earlier, and Baker's lineup construction.

TRF
04-20-2008, 10:33 PM
I re-tool the lineup this way:

Kepp
Dunn
Jr.
EE
Votto
Phillips
Patterson
Ross/Bako
P

I DFA Fogg. In fact, if I could, I'd DFA him twice. I'm shopping Arroyo to every "contender" with pitching issues. With Weathers on the DL, Bray gets the call. If I get a decent offer for Arroyo (Young power hitting RH OF or good young catching prospect + pitching) AND Bailey continues to pitch like he has been, then Bailey is in the rotation as the #5 if he hasn't been passed by Daryl Thompson (lightning in a bottle)

That leaves the bench. That abysmal bench.

Bruce get's promoted by mid to late May. Patterson is the 4th OF. Hopper to AAA, or gets shopped. Freel has too much versatility, so I don't move him. The three catcher crap goes away with my next DFA, Valentin. Hatte and Patterson are the LH off the bench, so I need a RH. I'm not saying who that is right now. I evaluate AAA and AA to see who is available in house. If no one excites me, I look outside.

Those are the moves I'd make.

*BaseClogger*
04-20-2008, 10:42 PM
I'd love to send Arroyo to LA for Matt Kemp...

Gainesville Red
04-20-2008, 10:45 PM
I'd love to send Arroyo to LA for Matt Kemp...

I'd love to send Arroyo to LA for Matt Kemp also.

LA probably wouldn't love to do it.

I know if I was them I wouldn't do it.

*BaseClogger*
04-20-2008, 10:46 PM
I'd love to send Arroyo to LA for Matt Kemp also.

LA probably wouldn't love to do it.

I know if I was them I wouldn't do it.

Well, they already have five good starting pitchers. I guess that is kind of an obstacle... ;)

SteelSD
04-20-2008, 11:11 PM
Well, the lineup construction has been an issue since day one and Baker seems to have no clue about how to fix it. His latest attempt is to move a traditionally-lower OBP option (Phillips) to the 2-slot in order. The pieces are there, but I'll be darned if Baker can figure out how to put the puzzle together.

That being said, has anyone noticed that the Reds pitchers have allowed more HR than any other NL team?

Falls City Beer
04-20-2008, 11:11 PM
Well, they already have five good starting pitchers. I guess that is kind of an obstacle... ;)

And yet they're not all that great of a team.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2008, 11:15 PM
That being said, has anyone noticed that the Reds pitchers have allowed more HR than any other NL team?

Every starter (except Fogg) is a FB pitcher--yet Fogg has added to the conflagration. Belisle's not likely to change matters in the HR dept.

klw
04-20-2008, 11:18 PM
-Ship out one of Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper and call up Jerry Hairston Jr. from Louisville. Hairston is not exactly a savior but he's hitting .404/.436/.712 and could provide an upgrade to Freel or Hopper. Also, I'd phone Reggie Sanders and see if he has any interest in returning to Cincinnati as a 4th outfielder. If so, he takes the place of Hairston.

-Call up Jay Bruce and insert him into the lineup as the everyday center fielder. I keep Patterson around as a defensive replacement and bat off the bench.

-Send Todd Coffey to Louisville and bring up Bill Bray. Bray has been dominant in Louisville - 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K. I think he's ready to step his game up and become a very good reliever.

-Place David Weathers on the disabled list and call up RHP Josh Roenicke from Chattanooga. Roenicke pitched strong in spring training and is off to a good start in Chattanooga. He, along with Cordero and Burton give the Reds some heat in the back of the bullpen.

Reggie Sanders can still hit lefties and provides some 'pop' off the bench. The addition of Bruce to the lineup adds power and in the meantime strengthens the bench with Patterson now the 4th/5th outfielder. Bray and Roenicke have great arms and could help the bullpen tremendously.

So
out
Fropper (Gone)
Coffey (to LOU)
Weathers (to 15 man DL)

In
Hairston (not on 40 man)
Bruce (not on 40 man)
Bray
Roenicke (not on 40 man)

So unless things have changed, you need to get another person off of the 25 man roster and 2 more off of the 40 man.
Who goes?

Benihana
04-21-2008, 01:35 PM
Here would be the moves I'd make in chronological order:

IMMEDIATELY

1. Promote Bill Bray, send Todd Coffey to Louisville
2. Promote Jerry Hairston Jr., send Norris Hopper to Louisville (if he has options, otherwise DFA)
3. Sign Mike Piazza to be the go-to RH pinch-hitter and backup catcher to Bako, although I'd play Bako everyday. DFA Javy Valentin.
4. Play Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel in a strict righty/lefty platoon, and go with this lineup for the next three weeks (Dusty never would, but just for the heck of it):

SS Keppinger
2B Phillips
LF Dunn
RF Griffey
3B Encarnacion
1B Votto
C Bako
Pitcher
CF Patterson/Freel

MAY 15

1. If Freel and Patterson don't break out of their slumps, I promote Jay Bruce and play him everyday in CF. If Freel hits well over this time period, I try to trade him for anything of value. If not, I DFA Juan Castro to make room for Bruce and Freel returns to his bench role. If Patterson starts to hit again, I would leave Bruce in AAA until one of the OFers gets injured.
2. Promote Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco and Chris Valaika to Chattanooga (assuming they continue to rake.)
3. Promote Todd Frazier and Brandon Waring to Sarasota (assuming they continue to rake.)
4. Promote Josh Roenicke and Carlos Fisher to Louisville. If those guys are gonna make it, they should get used to pitching to better competition at their age.
5. I continue using a rotation of Harang-Cueto-Arroyo-Volquez-Belisle. If a spot start is needed, I use Fogg or one of the AAA vets (Lehr/Shearn) during this time period. Otherwise Fogg stays in his long relief/mop-up role.

JUNE 15

1. I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.
2. I would also revisit the Homer Bailey situation. If he continues to deal the way he has in the last month, I consider him for a promotion. If a spot starter is needed at this point, he is the guy. If he has success, I would go to a six-man rotation, with Harang pitching every fifth day no matter what. The other guys rotate around him in order to keep the rookies' innings down.

TRADES

During these next two months, I would constantly be looking to make trades, with all of the following players expendable: (I would like to move all of the major leaguers for the best return possible, however small that may be.)

Javy Valentin
Scott Hatteberg
Ryan Freel
Norris Hopper
Alex Gonzalez

Matt Maloney (his value may never be higher than it is now- trade him only for a nice haul)
Carlos Fisher (he looks to have regressed a bit so far this year)
Sam LeCure (ditto)
BJ Szymanski (I would see if someone would bite on his hot start.)
Juan Francisco (he definitely has value, but I'd be wary of his plate discipline and he has nowhere to play)

Guys I would be targeting include the following:

Taylor Teagarden C TEX
Max Ramirez C TEX
Wladimir Balentien OF SEA
Matt Kemp OF LAD
Andy Marte 1B/3B/OF CLE
Brian Anderson OF CHW
Matt LaPorta OF MIL
Erick Aybar SS LAA

JULY AND BEYOND

If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.) That situation would depend on where the Reds are in the standings come July. If Dunn refuses to sign for $60 MM or less- or if he continues to straddle the Mendoza line, I would try to move him at the deadline as well. However if Dunn is re-signed and the Reds are out of contention come July 31, I would look to deal Griffey Jr. for the best possible return. One intriguing option that I would explore is trading Jr. and Maloney to Seattle for Waldimir Balentin and Jeff Clement or Kenji Johjima- provided we could sign the latter to a reasonable extension. Additionally, the Dodgers are also reportedly discussing a contract extension with Rafael Furcal, which would make shortstop prospect Chin Ling Hu expendable. Ditto for Brent Lillebridge in Atlanta if Escobar continues to rake. I would inquire about those two if they could be had for any of the spare parts listed above (not Dunn, Belisle, or Arroyo.) Also, if Darryl Thompson and Travis Wood continue to dazzle, I would give them both a midseason promotion to Louisville and Chattanooga, respectively.
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RedEye
04-21-2008, 02:03 PM
Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...


I address the Adam Dunn situation. If he is hitting over .250 at this point, I would offer him an extension- first offering more money for a 3-year deal, and then if he refuses offer less money for a 4-year deal. Either way, I would not exceed $60 MM in total money.

I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?


If/when Bailey joins the rotation in June and shows that he can stay there, I would also consider dealing Arroyo or Belisle, especially if the Reds could land a guy like Yunel Escobar (doubtful, but worth inquiring.)

Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.
__________________

Hoosier Red
04-21-2008, 02:24 PM
Nice post. Thanks for so much material to chew on. A couple of thoughts...



I agree that Dunn's possible extension needs to be addressed around July, but I wonder why a .250 batting average is your criterion. Seems like there are much better measures of his value, no?



Escobar is good, and I'd love to see the Reds consider a deal like this. The Braves also might be more motivated to do it than one would think since they have a hot 2B prospect named Lillibridge waiting in the wings. If they don't want to trade Yunel, I propose Lillibridge instead.
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Not to answer for him, but I think we trust that Dunn's other numbers will be up. While BA is an imperfect measurement at best, I think it can be a solid bellweather as to the type of production Adam is attaining.

He's not likely to keep up his current walk rate, so if he's able to replace some of the walks with hits(preferrably Xbase hits) his BA will be above .250.

WebScorpion
04-22-2008, 01:51 PM
To me, the bottom line is this: This team does not currently have the personnel to succeed. They have too many 'offense only' players, and as they are demonstrating, all offense experiences slumps. The team can survive with defensive liabilities at some (1 or 2) positions, but not at 5 or 6 spots. Dunn in LF, Griffey in RF, EE at 3B, Votto at 1B, Kepp at SS, and Bako behind the dish are all below average defenders in my opinion. Gonzo returning at SS and moving Kepp to 3rd would improve 2 spots, just as Putting Bruce in RF and moving Griff to LF. I think Votto will improve with time, but I think EE is what he is...EE might be a better defender at 1B or LF, but new positions are to be learned in AAA, not the big club. I don't believe any of our catchers are plus defenders, but a platoon of Bako and Ross is the best we've got. These moves would more than likely handcuff our offense, but those are the only moves I can see with our current group of talent that might put our defense at a Major League level. That leaves us with Dunn and EE (unless he's sent to AAA to learn a new position) to trade for a right-handed hitting plus defender catcher, or a plus defending CF who can hit...preferrably also right-handed. I won't get into specifics about who I'd trade for because that's just too iffy...you test the market and take the best deal you can get. Oh yeah, I also wouldn't do any of this until we got closer to the All-Star break.

membengal
04-23-2008, 08:02 AM
The Cubs had mothballed Matt Murton in AAA until Soriano got hurt. He's back up now, but who knows for how long?

He had 13 homeruns a few years back. He's RH. I know others have mumured his name before now, but I add my name to that list too. Seems to me like he possesses a skill set needed by this team, and should be available. That's a fairly easy trade I wish they would pursue.